Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, August 28th
It’s Friday night and we’ve got a little of everything for you. All the Hamel(s) you can handle and two shades of Gray. We’ve got a pitching God (Kershaw), a Harvey, a pitcher succeeding with a torn elbow ligament, a knuckleballer, and four guys who have changed teams mid-season. Finally, nine of tonight’s 30 pitchers are rookies with fewer than 17 career major league starts under their belts and five with less than 10. Let’s get to what’s sure to be a lot of words about pitching tonight.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Editor’s Note: Danny Salazar has been scratched from today’s start. Trevor Bauer will start in his place.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -4.9 | 3.99 | 6.03 | 1.35 | 1.01 | 3.58 | 4.43 | SDG | 85 | 91 | 114 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 18.8% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.3 | 4.31 | 4.78 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 2.77 | 3.57 | WAS | 97 | 88 | 139 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 24.8% | 12.6% | 8.9% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3.3 | 4.1 | 5.69 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 4.27 | 4.81 | CLE | 109 | 99 | 142 | 17.6% | 8.4% | 22.2% | 10.7% | 8.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1.8 | 2.22 | 7.12 | 1.85 | 0.89 | 1.83 | 2.43 | CHC | 94 | 90 | 114 | 28.6% | 6.3% | 22.0% | 11.3% | 7.8% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 2.9 | 3.3 | 6.68 | 1.48 | 1.08 | 3.12 | 4.76 | BAL | 89 | 94 | 73 | 22.7% | 7.0% | 23.9% | 10.6% | 10.9% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -1.3 | 3.18 | 5.78 | 0.97 | 0.94 | 3.32 | 3.3 | ANA | 90 | 99 | 80 | 22.5% | 6.2% | 19.5% | 11.7% | 9.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 10.2 | 4.21 | 6.07 | 1.49 | 0.94 | 4.08 | 3.57 | TAM | 102 | 92 | 126 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 19.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 9.4 | 4.29 | 5.18 | 1.26 | 0.94 | 4.45 | 5.07 | KAN | 94 | 105 | 132 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 21.6% | 12.3% | 9.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -3.4 | 3.5 | 5.86 | 1.95 | 0.91 | 3.3 | 4.68 | COL | 81 | 65 | 92 | 22.4% | 8.8% | 20.9% | 10.1% | 7.9% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | -3.8 | 4.08 | 6. | 0.68 | 0.88 | 5.69 | 3.18 | NYM | 100 | 97 | 189 | 20.3% | 7.8% | 20.0% | 13.8% | 14.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -8.2 | 3.6 | 5.82 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 3.64 | 2.12 | PHI | 88 | 85 | 99 | 24.2% | 6.7% | 21.7% | 10.7% | 9.8% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 4.1 | 3.43 | 5.82 | 0.99 | 0.89 | 3.35 | 2.6 | LOS | 118 | 108 | 74 | 24.0% | 6.8% | 25.4% | 18.5% | 7.8% |
| John Danks | CHW | -7.4 | 4.64 | 5.9 | 1.04 | 1.08 | 4.5 | 4.38 | SEA | 93 | 99 | 127 | 18.5% | 7.6% | 21.2% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | -2.8 | 4.11 | 4.05 | 1.14 | 0.91 | 4.87 | 4.14 | PIT | 107 | 99 | 111 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 15.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.7 | 3.72 | 5.81 | 1.13 | 1.08 | 4.08 | 2.64 | TEX | 99 | 97 | 95 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 20.1% | 12.4% | 9.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 2.6 | 4.19 | 5.91 | 2.05 | 1.05 | 3.76 | 6.29 | HOU | 92 | 100 | 110 | 17.9% | 8.4% | 19.4% | 12.0% | 8.5% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -5.2 | 3.01 | 6.61 | 1.51 | 0.98 | 2.72 | 3.54 | ATL | 92 | 86 | 109 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 23.1% | 12.5% | 8.4% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.2 | 4.61 | 5. | 0.65 | 1.05 | 4.77 | 5.48 | TOR | 123 | 129 | 161 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 16.1% | 14.4% | 12.1% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2 | 3.43 | 6.7 | 1.21 | 0.88 | 3.23 | 2.64 | BOS | 85 | 98 | 108 | 21.3% | 5.5% | 21.2% | 13.7% | 9.2% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -5 | 2.89 | 6.67 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 3.18 | 3.81 | FLA | 87 | 80 | 46 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 22.6% | 9.9% | 8.2% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.7 | 3.7 | 6.03 | 1.28 | 0.87 | 3.68 | 4.13 | SFO | 112 | 109 | 103 | 19.6% | 7.3% | 22.9% | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 2.2 | 3.68 | 6.4 | 2.01 | 0.87 | 3.43 | 2.4 | STL | 91 | 99 | 109 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 19.3% | 14.3% | 6.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -1.6 | 4.35 | 6.43 | 1.09 | 1.05 | 4.22 | 5.89 | DET | 107 | 103 | 102 | 16.6% | 7.3% | 20.6% | 10.1% | 11.1% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 3 | 3.34 | 5.84 | 1.34 | 1.07 | 3.27 | 2.48 | MIL | 86 | 89 | 103 | 24.6% | 6.4% | 23.1% | 15.4% | 7.3% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.2 | 4.08 | 5.63 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 3.73 | 5.35 | OAK | 93 | 97 | 119 | 17.9% | 7.5% | 24.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | -0.9 | 3.54 | 5.97 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 3.76 | 3.25 | MIN | 106 | 97 | 102 | 23.1% | 7.0% | 22.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -8.4 | 3.49 | 6.72 | 2.04 | 1.09 | 3.31 | 3.8 | ARI | 97 | 96 | 106 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 17.2% | 14.2% | 7.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -2.9 | 3.71 | 5.76 | 1.09 | 1.08 | 3.96 | 4.14 | CHW | 85 | 92 | 104 | 18.5% | 5.7% | 23.3% | 10.2% | 12.6% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -3.9 | 3.76 | 6.01 | 1.57 | 1.07 | 3.01 | 3.27 | CIN | 83 | 88 | 88 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 7.4% | 8.9% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -2.3 | 5.07 | 5.85 | 1.56 | 0.98 | 4.72 | 5.68 | NYY | 99 | 101 | 51 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 19.7% | 10.6% | 6.0% |
Aaron Nola has been entirely mediocre in his seven major league starts with his last one being his best (eight shutout innings with six strikeouts against a weak Marlins offense). His 12.6 K-BB% is perfectly adequate. His BABIP is perhaps a bit too low for the amount of hard contact he’s allowing (14.1 Hard-Soft%), but that might be showing up in his 11.6 HR/FB. He faces a poor San Diego road offense with a 15.1 K-BB% vs RHP in a favorable matchup.
Adam Conley has been less than impressive with average stuff and, at 25, past any kind of prospect hype. Yet, he is one of many unsuspecting arms who have found their way into the Miami rotation at one point or another this season. I’m guessing the numbers like him a little more than I do because he’s struck out eight of 35 batters on the road so far, facing teams like Milwaukee and Atlanta. The upside is that he does have a double digit SwStr% in each of his last two starts and he faces an offense that may have lost three players last night (Span, Taylor, Escobar) and has struggled with LHP despite running heavily RH (when healthy). They have been hot over the last week (12.6 BB%, 21.3 HR/FB, 24.6 Hard-Soft%) and represent a slightly unfavorable matchup in their home park.
Clayton Kershaw has the 2nd highest K% in baseball and the 3rd highest SwStr% since they started keeping track of the stat in 2002 (Yes, Chris Sale had the #3 spot before his last start). He has the highest floor of any pitcher in the game, going fewer than six innings just once (5.2 innings) and striking out fewer than seven just three times this year. He has a 30.8 K-BB% at home since last season and faces an offense with a 24.5 K% on the road, 25.1 K% vs LHP, and 26.8 K% over the last week, though they do have a 29.8 HR/FB over the last seven days. It’s a great park adjusted matchup for Kershaw.
Cole Hamels allowed five ERs in his first Texas start and one less run in each of his three subsequent starts. He allowed five HRs over his first two starts, walked four in his third, and struck out just two in his last one. Erratic would be the word we’re looking for here. The overall numbers paint a picture of a very good, but not elite pitcher, with a 17.2 K-BB% and 3.4 Hard-Soft% that is better than his career rate. The Orioles are not a good road team (23.9 K%), below average vs LHP (16.2 K-BB%), not hitting well at the moment (24.9 K% over the last week), and may be without Adam Jones tonight. The upwards park bump still leaves them as a slightly favorable matchup here.
Editor’s Note: Salazar has been scratched from today’s start. Trevor Bauer will start in his place.
Danny Salazar has become more than just a strikeout machine this year, although he still has HR issues, allowing 20 on the season, but more than one for just the second time this year at Yankee Stadium last time out. It broke a string of four starts with exactly one run allowed. He’s one of only nine pitchers this year with a K-BB (20.6%) above 20% while allowing less hard contact overall this season. The Angels are average vs RHP, but poor on the road, and have just a 15.6 LD% and 6.6 HR/FB over the last week, making them a great park adjusted matchup.
Edinson Volquez is not pitching at home tonight, but is pitching in a similarly power suppressing park and much better overall run environment, which is really the only way we’ll even look at him, with his success this season reliant on a 7.0 HR/FB and the Kansas City defense. His strikeout rate (below average) and walk rate (average) are similar to last season with a poor 9.3 K-BB%, but the quality of contact is worse (15.1 Hard-Soft%). It really does come down to the defense, park, and matchup here. The Rays are not a bad home offense and have been good over the last week, but are below average vs RHP and park adjust down to a slightly favorable matchup here.
Francisco Liriano will show you a double digit SwStr% no matter what rolling month average you look at and an elite 26.3 K% for the season, but he has only generated more than six strikeouts twice in his last 15 starts and no more than five in any of his last five. This is a concern, but he does have five starts with double digit strikeouts this year and a 2.06 GB/FB with a -4.4 Hard-Soft%, so he’s still providing some value. Although he keeps the ball on the ground, he has a 14.5 HR/FB at home since last season in a park that normally crushes RH power. The Rockies are atrocious on the road (18.1 K-BB%) and easily the worst offense vs LHP (23.4 K%, 7.2 HR/FB), making them by far, tonight’s top park adjusted matchup.
Ian Kennedy has been pitching well for a while now but started out so poorly that his ERA is just now ready to dip below four. The HRs (26) and hard contact (19.3 Hard-Soft%) continue to be an issue, but he snapped a streak of 12 straight starts with one allowed in his last start and has struck out 18 of his last 51 batters and has average road numbers since last season. The Phillies are a poor offense at home and 2nd worst vs RHP (14.1 K-BB%) and should be a favorable matchup with little park adjustment for a power friendly, but run neutral environment.
Jason Hammel made it through six innings for the first time in eight starts last time out with eight strikeouts, despite now allowing two ERs or fewer in four of his last five starts. Whatever strategy Joe Madden is using seems to be paying off as he’s missing more bats than ever and has an 18.5 K-BB% on the road since last season. Four of his eight fly balls have left the yard in his last two starts though as he’s allowed a HR in six straight. The Dodgers are the 2nd best home offense (13.9 HR/FB) and 3rd best vs RHP (14.0 HR/FB), but have been cold (25.3 K%, 4.9 Hard-Soft%) over the last week and get a downward offensive adjustment at home into a slightly favorable park adjusted matchup here. They may even be missing another bat or two, so watch the lineup they put out early this evening in more closely.
Kevin Gausman has been a formidable starting pitcher, going seven innings or more with three ERs or less in four of his last six starts and six or more strikeouts in four of his last five. He has an impressive 16.1 K-BB% with a 1.8 Hard-Soft% on the season now. He does have a fly ball and slight HR tendency that we have to pay attention to, but has otherwise been a bargain more often than not recently. The Rangers are a neutral offense in just about every way, but become slightly unfavorable with the park bump.
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed three ERs or more with exactly three strikeouts in just six innings in three of his last five starts, but gets a park improvement tonight and has a 20.1 K-BB% and more reasonable 11.6 HR/FB on the road in his career. Considering some of the AL East parks he regularly pitches in on the road are unfavorable, that’s not too bad. While the Braves might not help him fix that K rate (17.1 K% vs RHP), they are the 3rd worst offense vs RHP and should help with everything else (8.5 HR/FB at home, 7.6 HR/FB and 5.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). It’s a favorable matchup with little park adjustment necessary.
Matt Harvey had his last start skipped to preserve innings and is a creature of habit, who often doesn’t like his routine disturbed, so we’ll have to see how he responds here, but not too many pitchers would complain about missing a trip through Colorado. He has been better at home (19.4 K-BB%) and hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in seven straight home starts, though his strikeout numbers have been essentially hit or miss for a couple of months now. The overall numbers (17.9 K-BB%) are still great for a guy coming off major surgery and missing a year. Boston doesn’t strike out (16.8 K% vs RHP), but has cooled down and has been poor on the road (9.0 HR/FB). It certainly helps that they lose a bat in an NL park (though it’s more likely Shaw or Sandoval with Oritz playing first) as they adjust down to a fairly favorable matchup here.
Max Scherzer hasn’t his schedule adjusted so much to save innings as to line him up to face the Mets in an upcoming series with his last outing in Colorado a week ago. He’s been a little bit more hittable since the break (at least three ERs in four straight starts), but has retained and even improved incredibly elite bat missing skills. His 25.9 K-BB% is the best for any RHP. He has a great park adjusted matchup against the worst offense vs RHP in the majors (6.7 Hard-Soft%) and just a 3.9 HR/FB over the last week.
Michael Wacha has allowed a total of four ERs over his last five starts. His 14.5 K-BB% is more good than great with a low HR rate (6.9 HR/FB career) sustaining his low ERA. Normally, I’d be skeptical of his ability to sustain that outside of St Louis, but he gets one of the few park uprades (for power) possible tonight. He faces a strong offense (3rd best at home, tied for best vs RHP), but a banged up one that park adjusts down into a favorable situation here.
Mike Leake looked sharp in his return vs Pittsburgh after missing three weeks. He gets his first home start as a Giant tonight in a park he has to love after all those years as a HR prone pitcher in Cincinnati. His 10.6 K-BB% is below average and right around his career rate, but he resembles something of an earlier version of Tim Hudson in this park, which, with a 50+ GB%, can be useful at the right price if we expect the HRs to decrease. The Cardinals are average vs RHP, but below average on the road (21.9 K%) and park adjust nicely into a very favorable matchup here.
Raisel Iglesias is not a pitcher I get to write about as often as I’d like here, but he’s one of my favorites from a DFS perspective as an unheralded rookie with an 18.4 K-BB% and often below average price tag do to an ERA higher than his estimators, though the gap has narrowed. He’s coming off a career high 13 strikeouts and has allowed just one ER over his last two starts (14 innings). He actually gets an environmental downgrade tonight, but faces an extremely poor home offense with a 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.8 K-BB% over the last week, though with a 20.8 HR/FB. The strong park bump makes this about a neutral matchup.
Scott Kazmir has had one bad start as an Astro and his eight Ks last time out are his most since his first start of the season. His 14.1 K-BB% is above average, but not the stuff of a superstar, though he does have a double digit SwStr% and finds himself in a better catcher framing situation with 14 strikeout over his last 51 batters, so perhaps we should expect more than the ERA estimators currently give him credit for here. Minnesota is a tough home team in a park that’s less favorable for pitchers than it’s perceived, though the team does have a 28.2 K% over the last week on the road. They represent a slightly unfavorable park adjusted matchup here.
Taijuan Walker has been struggling a bit again with at least three ERs in three of his last four starts, but also just seven strikeouts (51 batters) over his last two starts. He’s someone who gives up a bit more hard contact and a few more HRs than you’d like, which is concerning with the park downgrade tonight, but the 2nd worst home offense in baseball with a 6.1 Hard-Soft% overall this season makes it a neutral park adjusted matchup.
Taylor Jungmann is having a fine rookie season (14.2 K-BB%), though not likely as fine as his low ERA suggests. He hasn’t allowed a HR in six home starts with an amazing 19.0 K-BB%, although one of those things is very unlikely to last. The Reds offense is poor vs RHP and worse on the road, though they get a favorable park for power and even a boost for overall run environment tonight, though they remain a slightly favorable matchup for the rookie here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Sonny Gray (.238 BABIP – 81.4 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) – He is a good pitcher by Ks and BBs (14.8 K-BB%), a better one by contact management (3.9 Hard-Soft%), and an All-Star by environment, but he’s not as elite as his ERA and DFS price tag today suggest and faces potentially his toughest offensive environment all season against a neutral offense that gets a bump. I’m not paying up for him today.
Andrew Heaney (.280 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 7.7 HR/FB) – While these numbers are fine at home and probably work for the Cleveland park too, paying an average price or more for guys with average stuff who rely on HR prevention for success is not the most often recommended path in DFS, though everything is situationally dependent. What may be discouraged tonight, may be right next time.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Chase Anderson doesn’t have a terrible matchup, but little strikeout upside (though his own rates have improved) in a poor park.
Jonathan Gray does have some potential but seems to just want to throw his fastball no matter what the situation he finds himself in, even if it’s not working. It’s a good fastball, but we’d like to see the secondary pitches develop and be more trusted. His one road start, in NY (NL), was good, though.
Erasmo Ramirez – While we’re still waiting for him to reach the potential in his SwStr%, the Royals are not the team to bet on it happening against. He’s one of very few remaining K/SwStr outliers with over 100 innings at this point in the season.
Henry Owens has some strikeout potential, but the Mets (23.6 K% vs LHP), who can put up a strong RH lineup now, have been pummeling everyone over the last week (15.1 K%, 21.6 HR/FB. 24.2 Hard-Soft%).
R.A. Dickey had been running well for a while, but has gotten beat up in two straight starts and faces a tough offense in an unenviable environment tonight.
John Danks has allowed more than three ERs in back to back starts for the first time in early June with a total of just nine strikeouts over his last three starts.
Matt Boyd facing the Blue Jays in Toronto hardly seems fair. This is by far the worst park-adjusted matchup tonight and resembles something you’d see when a decent offensive team travels to Colorado.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 19.4% | 6.9% | Home | 20.6% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 17.8% | 8.5% | Road | 22.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 11.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 16.9% | 5.0% | Road | 16.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 31.7% | 4.5% | Home | 34.3% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 3.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 24.4% | 7.0% | Home | 23.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 26.9% | 7.1% | Home | 26.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.9% | 8.5% | Road | 18.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 17.7% | 8.4% | Home | 18.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 25.5% | 10.3% | Home | 24.4% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 18.3% | 12.2% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 21.2% | 7.1% | Road | 16.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 3.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.7% | 7.9% | Road | 22.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 3.9% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.0% | 5.6% | Road | 24.6% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 4.4% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.1% | 7.9% | Home | 16.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 18.9% | 6.8% | Road | 22.7% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 3.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.1% | 7.0% | Road | 20.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 2.0% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 15.3% | 7.8% | Home | 15.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 14.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.4% | 4.4% | Road | 24.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 6.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 15.9% | 5.1% | Road | 20.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 23.2% | 5.3% | Home | 23.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 4.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.7% | 6.0% | Home | 28.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.3% | 6.8% | Road | 21.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 5.8% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 17.7% | 5.8% | Home | 20.3% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 5.3% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 17.3% | 7.8% | Home | 19.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 25.3% | 6.9% | Road | 25.4% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 7.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 7.1% | Home | 20.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 22.6% | 6.8% | Road | 21.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.8% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 21.1% | 7.5% | Road | 21.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.1% | 6.9% | Road | 20.0% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 2.0% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 22.5% | 8.4% | Home | 26.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 11.4% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 14.3% | 11.1% | Home | 18.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 11.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | RH | 21.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.1% | 5.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.8% | 9.0% | LH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.3% | 12.6% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 9.5% | LH | 18.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 12.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.5% | 8.7% | LH | 25.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.9% | 6.2% | LH | 21.6% | 5.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 5.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.7% | 7.3% | RH | 19.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.2% | 5.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.3% | 7.3% | RH | 21.5% | 7.0% | L7Days | 13.7% | 9.3% |
| Royals | Road | 16.3% | 5.3% | RH | 15.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 9.6% | 6.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.0% | 5.9% | LH | 23.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.0% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Home | 20.6% | 8.2% | LH | 23.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | RH | 19.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 24.0% | 9.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | RH | 20.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 6.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.5% | 7.3% | LH | 22.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 9.0% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 7.1% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.8% | 8.3% | RH | 19.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.8% |
| Astros | Road | 22.8% | 7.6% | RH | 24.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Home | 18.2% | 8.7% | RH | 17.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.6% | 9.5% | LH | 17.0% | 10.1% | L7Days | 14.0% | 11.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.2% | 7.8% | RH | 16.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 4.8% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 6.2% | RH | 19.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 17.3% | 4.8% |
| Giants | Home | 18.2% | 7.4% | RH | 18.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 7.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.2% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.6% | 7.5% | RH | 20.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.1% | 4.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.3% | 7.7% | RH | 18.0% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.1% |
| Twins | Home | 18.7% | 6.8% | LH | 20.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.2% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.1% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 6.6% | RH | 20.1% | 6.2% | L7Days | 14.1% | 5.3% |
| Reds | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | RH | 19.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.1% | RH | 19.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 28.6% | 7.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 18.5% | 11.6% | 7.0% | Home | 20.8% | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 23.5% | 10.3% | 17.2% | Road | 36.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 20.8% | 10.8% | 7.2% | Road | 25.2% | 11.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 20.9% | 8.5% | 11.8% | Home | 19.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 21.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | Home | 24.9% | 15.4% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 8.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 21.6% | 11.6% | 9.6% | Home | 21.5% | 11.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | Road | 19.0% | 12.3% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.3% | 11.8% | 11.0% | Home | 19.1% | 10.4% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | 20.6% | 11.6% | 7.9% | Home | 20.0% | 14.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 18.6% | 11.8% | 17.6% | Road | 17.2% | 0.0% | 29.4% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.5% | 12.2% | 8.1% | Road | 20.9% | 9.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.7% | 12.2% | 6.1% | Road | 23.1% | 11.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 41.4% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.6% | 10.6% | 8.2% | Home | 19.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 16.7% | 9.5% | 14.3% | Road | 0.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.2% | 8.2% | 12.3% | Road | 20.3% | 8.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 20.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | Home | 22.4% | 10.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.4% | 15.8% | 9.3% | Road | 24.0% | 11.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 16.0% | 14.8% | 7.4% | Road | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 8.1% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 17.7% | 11.0% | 11.0% | Home | 20.4% | 11.8% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | Home | 20.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.5% | 6.3% | 9.4% | Road | 22.8% | 6.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 21.5% | 13.5% | 6.3% | Home | 21.9% | 12.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 10.5% | 12.5% | Home | 20.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 5.9% | 17.6% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 22.7% | 10.9% | 9.4% | Road | 26.4% | 13.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 24.3% | 12.0% | 8.8% | Home | 22.6% | 11.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 20.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | Road | 21.6% | 11.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 16.7% | 9.1% | 7.9% | Road | 15.1% | 6.2% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 6.8% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 23.1% | 11.4% | 11.8% | Road | 24.4% | 11.5% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 21.7% | 4.3% | 5.7% | Home | 25.5% | 0.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 18.7% | 10.0% | 2.5% | Home | 21.1% | 9.4% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 19.7% | 9.1% | 9.9% | RH | 19.4% | 10.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 13.0% | 16.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.0% | 12.7% | 8.4% | LH | 19.9% | 11.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Indians | Home | 23.4% | 8.5% | 10.5% | LH | 23.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 17.1% | 12.2% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.8% | 11.2% | 7.6% | LH | 23.6% | 8.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 29.8% | 8.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.1% | 12.5% | 11.0% | LH | 21.1% | 12.1% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 13.6% | 11.9% |
| Angels | Road | 18.5% | 10.4% | 9.3% | RH | 20.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.6% | 6.6% | 11.5% |
| Rays | Home | 21.4% | 10.7% | 9.1% | RH | 21.4% | 9.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.1% | 6.6% |
| Royals | Road | 22.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | RH | 21.4% | 8.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.6% | 7.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.2% | 12.6% | 9.4% | LH | 22.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 14.8% | 6.6% |
| Mets | Home | 21.2% | 12.5% | 12.5% | LH | 21.4% | 13.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 21.6% | 9.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.1% | 10.3% | 8.4% | RH | 22.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 15.6% | 6.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.2% | 13.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.6% | 14.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.3% | 16.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 13.6% | 7.2% | LH | 22.0% | 14.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.1% | 19.6% | 15.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.6% | 11.8% | 5.6% | RH | 21.0% | 10.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.0% | 7.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.9% | 11.9% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.0% | 12.0% | 10.0% |
| Astros | Road | 21.8% | 11.4% | 11.0% | RH | 20.0% | 14.8% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.8% | 17.2% | 1.7% |
| Braves | Home | 21.1% | 8.5% | 8.7% | RH | 22.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 18.9% | 0.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.3% | 14.9% | 14.2% | LH | 20.5% | 13.6% | 17.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 17.5% | 12.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.7% | 10.3% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.4% | 9.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.9% | 11.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 3.9% | 11.8% |
| Giants | Home | 20.6% | 8.0% | 6.8% | RH | 21.5% | 10.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 26.5% | 10.9% | 13.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 11.3% | 10.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 14.0% | 4.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 12.4% | 7.8% | RH | 21.7% | 10.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.3% | 11.4% | 6.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 19.4% | 20.8% | 10.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.8% | 10.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 10.4% | 11.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 12.6% | 10.8% | LH | 19.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 9.8% | 7.9% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.1% | 16.4% | 7.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.2% | RH | 21.3% | 11.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.4% | 13.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.5% | 6.2% | 12.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.0% | 11.9% | 8.4% | RH | 20.8% | 13.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.6% | 13.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 19.4% | 8.5% | 2.28 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 2.52 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 17.8% | 8.4% | 2.12 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 2.10 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 17.3% | 9.4% | 1.84 | 13.7% | 8.8% | 1.56 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 32.4% | 15.4% | 2.10 | 26.6% | 12.8% | 2.08 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 24.7% | 13.3% | 1.86 | 20.5% | 13.1% | 1.56 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 27.7% | 12.2% | 2.27 | 23.6% | 9.9% | 2.38 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.9% | 9.6% | 1.86 | 18.1% | 8.4% | 2.15 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 18.1% | 11.3% | 1.60 | 13.5% | 8.3% | 1.63 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 26.3% | 13.8% | 1.91 | 18.1% | 10.5% | 1.72 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.98 | 21.2% | 10.7% | 1.98 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 22.8% | 9.7% | 2.35 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 2.90 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.8% | 11.3% | 2.19 | 25.0% | 12.9% | 1.94 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.81 | 17.6% | 9.6% | 1.83 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.01 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 2.01 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.6% | 11.0% | 1.96 | 24.2% | 11.5% | 2.10 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 16.6% | 9.4% | 1.77 | 14.7% | 9.5% | 1.55 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 22.5% | 11.9% | 1.89 | 16.5% | 10.4% | 1.59 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 15.9% | 9.3% | 1.71 | 14.7% | 9.1% | 1.62 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 23.2% | 11.0% | 2.11 | 24.0% | 9.1% | 2.64 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.7% | 14.9% | 1.99 | 28.5% | 15.8% | 1.80 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 20.6% | 10.0% | 2.06 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 2.20 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 16.8% | 6.7% | 2.51 | 18.7% | 7.2% | 2.60 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.2% | 9.1% | 1.56 | 12.7% | 7.4% | 1.72 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 25.3% | 11.2% | 2.26 | 29.2% | 10.5% | 2.78 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 16.0% | 7.4% | 2.16 | 19.4% | 9.3% | 2.09 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 | 20.5% | 10.9% | 1.88 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.22 | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.6% | 10.1% | 2.24 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 2.18 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 22.5% | 9.0% | 2.50 | 28.1% | 11.6% | 2.42 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 14.3% | 5.9% | 2.42 | 8.7% | 7.0% | 1.24 |
Cole Hamels – The strikeout numbers for the month of August were fine until striking out just two of 28 batters on an 8.3 SwStr% in his last start.
Francisco Liriano has seen his SwStr% dip, but it’s still in double digits and suggests something better than a below average K% over the last month.
Ian Kennedy has seen a slight drop to his average SwStr% that doesn’t mesh with a rise in K% over the last month, though his 12.6 SwStr% in his last start was his first double digit effort in 13 starts. Expect him to continue being who he’s been all season in terms of strikeout rate.
Masahiro Tanaka has seen some drop off in his swing and miss skills, but not nearly enough to suggest the K% he’s shown over the last month. While it’s true that a 17.5 SwStr% mid-month, his only double digit effort, skews that number, he’s been at 8% or above in each start this month.
Raisel Iglesias – The 13 strikeouts in his last start with a 20.0 SwStr% pulls everything up, but he did have a SwStr below 7% in two of his previous three starts, though his overall numbers are great.
Taylor Jungmann has seen a real spike in SwStr%, with a double digit mark in three of his last four starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.59 | 3.98 | 0.39 | 3.98 | 0.39 | 4.04 | 0.45 | 3.72 | 4.26 | 0.54 | 4.29 | 0.57 | 3.64 | -0.08 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.88 | 4.31 | -0.57 | 4.32 | -0.56 | 4.21 | -0.67 | 5.4 | 3.97 | -1.43 | 4.02 | -1.38 | 3.82 | -1.58 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3.39 | 4.12 | 0.73 | 4.23 | 0.84 | 3.7 | 0.31 | 5.88 | 4.84 | -1.04 | 5.11 | -0.77 | 4.66 | -1.22 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.29 | 2.26 | -0.03 | 2.13 | -0.16 | 2.12 | -0.17 | 1.46 | 2.73 | 1.27 | 2.71 | 1.25 | 1.96 | 0.5 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.82 | 3.43 | -0.39 | 3.37 | -0.45 | 3.53 | -0.29 | 4.73 | 4.06 | -0.67 | 3.93 | -0.8 | 4.85 | 0.12 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.3 | 3.15 | -0.15 | 3.26 | -0.04 | 3.66 | 0.36 | 1.91 | 3.67 | 1.76 | 3.84 | 1.93 | 4.09 | 2.18 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.4 | 4.35 | 0.95 | 4.27 | 0.87 | 3.74 | 0.34 | 4.13 | 4.24 | 0.11 | 4.31 | 0.18 | 3.55 | -0.58 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.66 | 4.05 | 0.39 | 4.07 | 0.41 | 3.96 | 0.3 | 3.41 | 4.41 | 1 | 4.12 | 0.71 | 4.39 | 0.98 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 3.23 | 3.31 | 0.08 | 3.09 | -0.14 | 3.1 | -0.13 | 4.67 | 4.35 | -0.32 | 4.15 | -0.52 | 3.35 | -1.32 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 4.5 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 4.5 | 4.08 | -0.42 | 4.3 | -0.2 | 4.42 | -0.08 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.01 | 3.73 | -0.28 | 3.86 | -0.15 | 4.87 | 0.86 | 2.27 | 3.42 | 1.15 | 3.62 | 1.35 | 3.57 | 1.3 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.35 | 3.3 | -0.05 | 3.37 | 0.02 | 3.64 | 0.29 | 4.01 | 3.41 | -0.6 | 3.38 | -0.63 | 5.6 | 1.59 |
| John Danks | CHW | 4.9 | 4.59 | -0.31 | 4.62 | -0.28 | 4.41 | -0.49 | 4.65 | 4.72 | 0.07 | 4.54 | -0.11 | 4.35 | -0.3 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 5.94 | 4.1 | -1.84 | 4.35 | -1.59 | 4.08 | -1.86 | 5.94 | 4.11 | -1.83 | 4.35 | -1.59 | 4.08 | -1.86 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.3 | 3.63 | -0.67 | 3.88 | -0.42 | 3.87 | -0.43 | 4.41 | 3.23 | -1.18 | 3.31 | -1.1 | 3.61 | -0.8 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 3.96 | 4.2 | 0.24 | 4.01 | 0.05 | 4.23 | 0.27 | 6.35 | 4.85 | -1.5 | 4.75 | -1.6 | 5.1 | -1.25 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.61 | 3.41 | -0.2 | 3.32 | -0.29 | 4.11 | 0.5 | 3.55 | 3.98 | 0.43 | 3.66 | 0.11 | 4.19 | 0.64 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 7.04 | 4.6 | -2.44 | 5.02 | -2.02 | 5.86 | -1.18 | 4.88 | 4.99 | 0.11 | 5.34 | 0.46 | 4.37 | -0.51 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.57 | 3.43 | 0.86 | 3.45 | 0.88 | 3.43 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 2.77 | 2.14 | 2.75 | 2.12 | 2.04 | 1.41 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.79 | 2.7 | -0.09 | 2.99 | 0.2 | 2.69 | -0.1 | 5.14 | 3.23 | -1.91 | 3.25 | -1.89 | 4.12 | -1.02 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.8 | 3.75 | 0.95 | 3.61 | 0.81 | 3.19 | 0.39 | 1.09 | 3.83 | 2.74 | 3.72 | 2.63 | 2.58 | 1.49 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 3.44 | 3.95 | 0.51 | 3.69 | 0.25 | 3.95 | 0.51 | 1.33 | 3.8 | 2.47 | 3.62 | 2.29 | 3.62 | 2.29 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.26 | 4.86 | 0.6 | 4.86 | 0.6 | 4.67 | 0.41 | 3.32 | 5.03 | 1.71 | 5.08 | 1.76 | 3.97 | 0.65 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 3.93 | 3.34 | -0.59 | 3.43 | -0.5 | 3.41 | -0.52 | 1.93 | 2.62 | 0.69 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 3.09 | 1.16 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 4.28 | 4.35 | 0.07 | 4.22 | -0.06 | 4.14 | -0.14 | 3.86 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 3.82 | -0.04 | 3.51 | -0.35 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.39 | 3.84 | 1.45 | 3.74 | 1.35 | 3.34 | 0.95 | 2.97 | 4.04 | 1.07 | 3.82 | 0.85 | 4.15 | 1.18 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.1 | 3.55 | 1.45 | 3.51 | 1.41 | 3.22 | 1.12 | 1.4 | 3.64 | 2.24 | 3.62 | 2.22 | 3.95 | 2.55 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.73 | 3.62 | -1.11 | 3.76 | -0.97 | 4.06 | -0.67 | 3.71 | 3.51 | -0.2 | 3.35 | -0.36 | 3.1 | -0.61 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.66 | 3.76 | 1.1 | 3.72 | 1.06 | 2.98 | 0.32 | 3.86 | 3.32 | -0.54 | 3.04 | -0.82 | 2.31 | -1.55 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 4.76 | 5.07 | 0.31 | 5.1 | 0.34 | 4.95 | 0.19 | 7.98 | 6 | -1.98 | 6.07 | -1.91 | 5.92 | -2.06 |
Danny Salazar has seen his estimators rise slightly over the last month while his ERA has been one of the top marks in baseball. His strikeout rate was steady, though his 8.0 BB% was the highest of any month this season with a BABIP of just .230, while stranding 95% of his runners. His BABIP for the season is 77 points below last season and though his LD rate has dropped five points, he has just half the IFFBs he had last season while his Z-Contact% has been steady with the quality of contact improving overall (as in weaker). The defense has improved and while that was probably one of the bigger factors here, the true mark is probably somewhere in between the two seasons.
Edinson Volquez – We already mentioned the 7.0 HR/FB as the reason for his FIP being lower than the other two estimators with the below average K and BB rates. The defense probably makes up for the rest of the gap between his FIP and ERA. As long as he’s in Kansas City, these things are probably relatively fine.
Kevin Gausman has a low LOB% for the season, despite a low, but potentially sustainable BABIP (high IFFB%, low Z-Contact% with a decent defense). However, August has been his worst month for stranding runners (65.4%), which is likely the reason for his higher ERA, though he’s allowed more than three ERs just once this month.
Matt Harvey has seen some BABIP and LOB (82.1%) benefit to his ERA, although he seems to have straightened out his mid-season HR issue (just five over his last 11 starts). He is generating an above average pop up rate and misses bats in the strike zone with a low LD rate (17.7%). The defense prides itself on good positioning too, so this may be sustainable (more so with Lagares patrolling CF though) or close to it under current circumstances, but we’d like to see the K% stay above a quarter to maintain an ERA below three.
Michael Wacha has a 7.7 HR/FB with a BABIP and LOB% that are really borderline sustainable, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s not home tonight, but in a potentially equal or better park for HR suppression.
Scott Kazmir has a SwStr% that may suggest a few more Ks with an improvement in catcher framing after the trade and that should help his estimators if it happens. That should, and maybe already has, help stave off the expected fall off in ERA in a situation where he was likely benefiting some from the park in Oakland. That won’t be the case here and his estimators haven’t changed much, but he could maintain his lower BABIP with a defense that shifts a ton. He has seen some rise in his ERA due to a slight expected rise in his HR rate.
Taijuan Walker has flashed an above average 16.7 K-BB% with great improvement in his walk rate since the season began, but his ERA has been held back somewhat by a low strand rate (67.4%) and above average HR rate (13.2 HR/FB). The park shift to Chicago tonight is unlikely to help with at least the latter problem (I meant HRs if that wasn’t clear).
Taylor Jungmann – This is simply a product of his 4.3 HR/FB and not a single HR allowed at home, in Milwaukee of all places. The adjustment will happen and then the question to whether he’ll remain above average will likely be answered by whether he can maintain the spike in SwStr% and strikeouts he’s seen over the last month.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.317 | 0.262 | -0.055 | 7.0% | 89.1% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.293 | 0.325 | 0.032 | 17.2% | 85.6% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.284 | 0.280 | -0.004 | 6.4% | 90.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.299 | 0.287 | -0.012 | 11.1% | 78.6% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.295 | 0.304 | 0.009 | 13.3% | 83.8% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.292 | 0.266 | -0.026 | 6.4% | 82.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.281 | 0.280 | -0.001 | 5.7% | 86.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.283 | 0.254 | -0.029 | 14.5% | 83.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.302 | 0.284 | -0.018 | 10.2% | 83.2% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.307 | 0.269 | -0.038 | 17.6% | 83.5% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.299 | 0.280 | -0.019 | 8.3% | 87.0% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.295 | 0.277 | -0.018 | 4.1% | 85.4% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.314 | 0.305 | -0.009 | 9.3% | 86.3% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.316 | 0.308 | -0.008 | 14.3% | 91.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 15.6% | 83.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.299 | 0.288 | -0.011 | 7.4% | 89.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.298 | 0.244 | -0.054 | 8.3% | 86.6% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.299 | 0.350 | 0.051 | 7.4% | 83.5% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.283 | 0.255 | -0.028 | 11.0% | 83.8% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.307 | 0.270 | -0.037 | 13.7% | 79.3% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.291 | 0.272 | -0.019 | 11.2% | 85.0% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 0.285 | 0.260 | -0.025 | 6.8% | 94.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.283 | 0.274 | -0.009 | 13.9% | 83.7% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.285 | 0.290 | 0.005 | 9.4% | 88.2% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.292 | 0.305 | 0.013 | 8.3% | 88.6% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.282 | 0.264 | -0.018 | 5.7% | 85.7% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.282 | 0.238 | -0.044 | 9.2% | 88.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.297 | 0.299 | 0.002 | 11.4% | 85.3% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.304 | 0.296 | -0.008 | 5.7% | 89.3% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.305 | 0.305 | 0 | 2.5% | 90.5% |
Aaron Nola has allowed a BABIP over 50 points lower than what his atrocious defense has allowed without any positive indicators in his favor. This is a mark ripe for regression and likely the reason his ERA is 3.59 instead of closer to four at this point.
Masahiro Tanaka exhibits no incredibly strong skill that would suggest such a low BABIP. The hope, for the Yankees, is that his HR rate regresses as his BABIP does to keep the ERA steady.
Max Scherzer has a BABIP this is only called into question because of his defense. He’s an elite pop up inducer and bat misser in the zone. Although he does have a .300 career BABIP, those higher numbers have often come with less potent indicators. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher who has less need of a quality infield than most pitchers and I see this as something sustainable (as do his ERA estimators above with little gap between everything).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Raisel Iglesias (5t) – I’m both thrilled and shocked that his price has declined if anything since his last start in which he struck out 13 batters. Sure, he gets a negative park shift, but it’s not like he pitches in a favorable park and he gets to face the Milwaukee lineup tonight. This is a guy striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced and may be in line for one of the top strikeout rates behind (far behind) Kershaw tonight.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1 – huge gap to #2) strikes out nearly a third of the batters he faces. The Cubs strike out a quarter of the time they come to the plate on the road and against LHP. What happens when the unhittable force meets the entirely whiffable object? Lots of strikeouts we think.
Mike Leake (7t) should enjoy his new home. Expect the same rate of ground balls and strikeouts, but fewer HRs, leading to potentially a better ERA. The Cardinals have not been a good road offense and the extremely favorable park gives him a great chance at exceeding a smack middle of the board price cost.
Jason Hammel (7t) has had good numbers, it was just a question of why the Cubs were pulling him out of games so early. They let him go a bit further in his last start and if they do so again, the results should be good. The Dodgers are a tough offense but are missing a few bats with a few others potentially below 100% and face a pitcher striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced over the last month.
Adam Conley is dumpster diving material, whom I don’t particularly love by his own merits but faces a banged-up offense that has struggled against LHP all season at the bare minimum price.
Value Tier Three
Ian Kennedy (9) has been pitching well for a while now, has a strikeout rate above league average, and is in a favorable spot for a slightly above average cost.
Masahiro Tanaka (4) may lose something in his K% tonight, but is in a great spot to succeed overall with the park bump and a very good matchup at an above average, but reasonable price.
Kevin Gausman can be frustrating at times, but the results (from a fantasy perspective at least) have been good enough as a starter to suggest a higher price tag. It’s not the greatest spot tonight, but it’s strikeout upside at a very low price.
Matt Harvey (3) hasn’t had the strikeout consistency we would like, but has been great at home and gets to face the Red Sox without a DH tonight. Let’s hope the interruption to his routine with the skipped start doesn’t hurt him.
Editor’s Note: Salazar has been scratched from today’s start. Trevor Bauer will start in his place.
Danny Salazar (5t) may not be just a strikeout artist anymore and is in a favorable spot here, but has seen his price increase to compensate for those matters. His ERA has dropped while his estimators have actually increased over the last month which keeps him from the above tiers.
Max Scherzer (2) is still great and in a great spot tonight, but has been slightly more hittable, although he’s sustained amazing SwStr and K rates. An enormous cost is the only real drawback.
Taylor Jungmann is going to allow a HR sooner or later and faces a team with some power in an unfavorable park, but it’s not a good offense on the road or vs RHP and he has shown some improvement in the swing and miss department over the last month, so there is upside to go with the high price.
Francisco Liriano (10) may not be giving you what you’d normally expect in strikeouts, but is stifling hard contact and has the top matchup on the board tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.