Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, July 17th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2015-07-20 23:05:24

It seems like forever, but it’s been a week since the last article. My own research, writing, and other duties here at RotoGrinders take up the bulk of my day Monday through Friday and while I still watch baseball often during the weekend, I usually shut myself off from the daily fantasy aspect of it. This week off gave me an opportunity to examine some of the newer tools out there on the internet for DFS players and I was completely blown away by the detail and depth of what’s available now, some of them I couldn’t believe I wasn’t already using heavily. I’m still partial to RotoGrinders, where I grew up, and all that’s at your fingertips here, but you can basically find something for whatever angle you want to come from anywhere now. It’s pretty amazing.

The first few days back from the break are both interesting and a bit more difficult due to a gap in some of the information. Most affected are the stats over the last week for opposing teams. That now encompasses the last four days of play (because most of the work was done and pulled Thursday as there was no need to wait on previous night results) and is probably even less significant due to the four day layoff, though I won’t discard it completely. Pitcher last 14 days stats may also be compromised for a little while, although just Odorizzi and Perez have made fewer than two starts over that span.

Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.

Anibal Sanchez has struggled this year and even his peripherals are no better than average and much worse than his normal work, but is still striking out batters at a decent rate and is a bit of a “name”. I felt like I’d be remiss in not writing him up, but he’s really just middle of the pack today due to the risk you incur not just in a 14.6 HR/FB that could regress. Really you have to be concerned with that 1.06 GB/FB that’s occurring within. It’s a career low. He faces an offense that generates a lot of loft offensively with the 3rd lowest GB/FB (1.17) and a 14.5 HR/FB vs RHP. They haven’t been as good on the road, though Detroit is an overall hitter’s park. The good news is that the O’s have the 2nd highest K% on the road (23.9%) and 2nd highest vs RHP (22.7%), giving him one of the higher projected K rates to go with all that risk today.

C.J. Wilson also feels like a “name” that deserves a full write-up today despite his mediocrity this year and at home since last year, pumped up a little by his ability to slightly suppress HRs in a good park. And that park with an above average defense appears to be a very convenient thing when combined with his 17.6 Hard-Soft% on contact this season. In his favor, however, is a top park adjusted matchup with a bad road team and an even worse one vs LHP (86 wRC+, 3.9 Hard-Soft%).

Charlie Morton offers little value in terms of bat missing ability, but may be under-rated against a very right handed Milwaukee team in a park that enhances offense. The obvious reason is his ground ball generating prowess. He has the highest GB/FB in the chart today over the last two running years and has taken that to another level with a career high 3.5 GB/FB this year, though a bit less extreme over the last month (2.14 GB/FB). Not only are the ground ball plentiful, but they seem to skew towards the weaker end as well (2.4 Hard-Soft%). His 26.3 Soft% would be 2nd in the league to teammate Francisco Liriano if he had the innings to qualify. The Brewers will strike out more than average and their power is muted if they can’t get the ball in the air.

Collin McHugh has now gone at least seven innings with three runs or less in three of his last four starts. If we’re not looking for him to be what he was last year, he’s still proven to be a decent pitcher with the biggest differences being an adjustment to his BABIP, which is fair, and a big drop in his K%, which there may be able to be optimistic about. The Texas matchup may be a bit tougher than it appears vs RHP when their lineup full of lefties is entirely healthy, but is still about a league average matchup overall on the road. Houston will enhance power, but has been an overall neutral run environment.

Drew Hutchison pitches really well at home in a tough park for some reason. It’s not even in a fairly normal 9.8 HR/FB, but an 18.1 K-BB% since last season in Toronto that’s much better than his road mark. Despite allowing at least three ERs in each of his last five road starts, he’s allowed a total of one ER over his last four at home. Even though the park generally enhances offense, he has a decent matchup against Tampa Bay who struggles against RHP with the 5th highest K rate (22.1%).

Ervin Santana got beat up by a tough and hot Detroit lineup in his last start, but has impressively generated a lot of strikeouts so far, backed up by his SwStr%. Let’s not put too much thought into two starts, but consider one of them was against the Royals and the SwStr% is in line with what he’s done the last two years. Oakland is a team that is tough to strike out and does have an above average offense at home and against RHP, but have just a 6.4 HR/FB at home with a 6.8 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. Their offensive prowess is mostly in their above average plate discipline, which could get Santana in trouble. A park that mutes offense gives the pitcher an advantage in this matchup however.

James Shields joins the group of pitchers that doesn’t really excite me today, but his name value earns a write-up. The HRs have really killed him this year, though the career high 18.5 K-BB% is really nice. There is upside in catching Colorado, a bad road team, at home, but Petco just doesn’t seem to be the advantage to him that it should be. He has a 16.9 Hard-Soft%. Those 19 HRs don’t appear to be cheapies. The Rockies have an 18.1 K-BB% on the road, which keeps him in the conversation at a high price, but also a 12.3 HR/FB away from Coors.

Jordan Zimmermann has disappointed in a strikeout rate that’s returned to his career norm after a nice jump last year, but he’s still generating good results due to a low walk rate and a continuing ability to keep the ball in the park. He faces the top team vs RHP, but the Dodgers are not the juggernaut they were through the first few months of the season. Quality pitching can beat them and their strengths, patience and power, coincide with those of Zimmermann.

Jorge de la Rosa has allowed two ERs or less in six of his last seven starts, though his underlying numbers tell a much less encouraging story. His 18.7 K-BB% in two July starts is encouraging however and a date with the Padres in Petco is even more so. Not only does the top pitcher’s park tonight give him the top park adjusted matchup, the Padres have the 4th highest K rate at home (23.3%) and are tied for worst vs LHP (24.6%).

Jose Fernandez has yet to show an ill effects of TJ surgery, striking out 15 of 50 batters without a walk. We know that we can’t just brush that off, but so far so good and -14.3 Hard-Soft% to boot. It gets even better today as he takes on the Phillies in a great matchup against the 3rd worst home offense and worst vs RHP (7.2 HR/FB, 5.6 Hard-Soft%). Even if they don’t strike out a ton, he gets my vote for top projected K% tonight and it’s not particularly close.

Julio Teheran has not been good this year by any measure, but has allowed only three of his 16 HRs at home. Atlanta is considered a fairly neutral park for run environment, but it does suppress power and that should help him here as a fly ball pitcher against a Chicago team with some power. Another thing to like here is that the Cubs have the 2nd highest strikeout rate vs RHP (24.5%) and 3rd highest on the road (23.7%) with more to potentially like below.

Kyle Hendricks does not miss a lot of bats, but enough to be useful and a few more over the last month. His real strength is excellent control that’s allowed him to maintain a 15.5 K-BB% with a slightly below average strikeout rate. The Braves strike out less than the average offense, but it’s not fantasy killer (17.1% vs RHP) because they don’t hit for much power or even really hit the ball hard (5.6 Hard-Soft% overall and vs RHP) to make you worry. This is a solid matchup where he should keep the ball in the park and the bases clear while relying on a good and well positioned defense behind him to make the plays.

Lance Lynn uses his park to his advantage, transforming him from potentially a mid-rotation starter to a borderline top starter at home where he’s allowed just two HRs this year and has a 3.3 HR/FB since last year. It’s another circumstance of a park that plays overall neutral, but with strong power suppression tendencies. He’s also increased his strikeouts, though I’m a bit skeptical of that, which we’ll discuss later. He does get the benefit of a great overall matchup even with little park adjustment against the worst road offense in baseball.

Masahiro Tanaka has a 20.9 K-BB% at home as a Yankee, but also a 16.1 HR/FB. He’s struck out exactly five or six in each of his last six starts. He has a fairly neutral park adjusted matchup against a Seattle team that has the 4th highest strikeout rate (22.1%) vs RHP. Despite being one of the worst road offenses and bad against RHP overall, they do have some power and hit the ball harder than any team vs RHP (15.5 Hard-Soft%).

Mike Fiers has struck out just four batters or fewer in four of his last five starts, bringing his K% more in line with his SwStr% for the season becoming the league average pitcher I’ve always seen him as. The issue with this is the amount of hard contact he’s allowed, but that’s actually decreased over the last month with a 36.9 Hard% for the season that is still highest in the majors, but not by an enormous amount anymore as his BABIP has decreased as well. The Pirates supply a below average offense that park adjusts up to neutral tonight, but do have a 22.4 K% on the road.

Mike Leake struck out a season high 10 Marlins in his last start and actually has a 20.6 K% at home since last season. A 16.9 HR/FB and 13.9 career HR/FB is a problem, but is tempered a bit with a strong ground ball rate and career high 2.27 GB/FB this season. Cleveland has some strong plate discipline stats, but just mediocre power and the park plays more towards power than overall run production leaving him a decent park adjusted matchup.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

Mike Bolsinger has actually improved over the last month according to his underlying numbers, though there’s been no increase in his SwStr rate driving his strikeout increase and a .392 BABIP has driven up his ERA. He’s had issues going deep into game, but has excelled in keeping the ball on the ground (2.42 GB/FB) and in the park with just three HRs allowed this season. Washington has been average vs RHP, but below average at home offensively and will strike out at a league average rate.

Noah Syndergaard has exhibited tremendous growth and maturity since his major league debut in May and in culminated in a career high 13 strikeout performance in his last start. It hasn’t always shown in his K%, but the SwStr% has been consistently over 9% in each of his last seven starts and he’s allowed exactly one ER in four of his last five starts. When he does allow contact, his stuff is so good that it’s not often solid contact (2.2 Hard-Soft%). The Cardinals are a decent offense that park adjusts neutrally here, but they have just a 7.2 HR/FB at home. It’s not just hard for the other team to hit HRs here and strike out just below a league average rate.

Sonny Gray is an great talent who’s strength lies slightly more in elite contact management (0.8 Hard-Soft% this year) than in his strikeout prowess. That’s not to say he can’t miss bats because he does at a league average rate, which generates a slightly higher than league average K%, but you are often asked to pay a lot for those skills. The good news is that he has a strong park adjusted matchup against the 2nd worst road offense in the majors. The Twins have just a 7.6 HR/FB on the road.

Trevor Bauer has the potential to great things anytime he goes out there, like he did in his last start, striking out nine Astros in eight innings, but he’s also had starts where he’s walked the park and gotten pounded with a low strikeout total. You rarely know what you’re going to get. The good today is that Cincinnati struggles against RHP with just a 6.2 Hard-Soft% on contact, but they are a strong home offense with some power (13.8 HR/FB) and while he doesn’t necessarily have a high HR/FB rate, a career 0.87 GB/FB is a bit dangerous in this park.

League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized

Jake Odorizzi (.253 BABIP – 80.8 LOB% – 5.6 HR/FB) – It’s not even him as much as the matchup. Toronto is much more prolific against southpaws, but is still an overall monster at home that I’m hesitant to pay up for against a good pitcher who is having more success than this peripherals dictate and also just returned from a month layoff due to injury.

Michael Montgomery (.233 BABIP – 84.0 LOB – 7.0 HR/FB) – He’s allowed three of his four HRs in his last two starts in big west coast parks and although his current HR rate isn’t too unbelievable for Safeco, but he’s in Yankee Stadium tonight.

Chris Young (.212 BABIP – 77.3 LOB% – 6.9 HR/FB) – The BABIP is too inconceivable even for him, but he does have his highest SwStr% since 2008, which should mean more strikeouts.

Robbie Ray (.255 BABIP – 73.2 LOB% – _3.1 HR/FB) – That HR rate is just not something you can buy into in any park, much less Arizona, and he faces a good offense tonight.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Wade Miley – A very low price tag in a good park that adjusts the matchup to something close to neutral is almost tempting, but the Angels lean heavily right handed with power.

Ubaldo Jimenez has made great strides this year, but might have tonight’s toughest park adjusted matchup.

Adam Morgan – He does have an encouraging 10.2 SwStr% though.

Matt Cain has become HR prone the last few seasons and with a K% just below average, that makes him a dangerous pitcher in a park like Arizona.

John Danks – I’m sure he’ll drive you nuts when you stack against him again.

Martin Perez in his first start back from TJ surgery against a high powered Houston team is a little bit different than a stud like Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey.

Combo K/BB Charts

These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.

Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent

Combo Batted Ball Charts

See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.

Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Chris Young – Although the four below him are far worse, Salvador Perez rates as the fourth worst pitch framer this year according to StatCorner.com, which might be something to keep in mind here.

Collin McHugh is still within an acceptable range with his K/SwStr, but it should be noted that he has retained a double digit SwStr% not far below his 11% mark last year. There is some reason for optimism going forward.

James Shields has maintained a very high SwStr%, so we can look more to his season K% than what he’s done over the last month, but it’s still lower than the 30% mark he was putting up earlier in the year, which is really what a fantasy pitcher needs to generate a lot of value when he’s giving up so many HRs.

Jordan Zimmermann – A recent bump in his strikeout rate is a false alarm.

Julio Teheran has maintained his SwStr% from last season, but seen a drop below average in his K% possibly due to a rise in his BB%. My theory is he gets to ball four before strike three too often. His SwStr% has increased over the last month without a benefit to his K%, but he gets a high strikeout offense tonight.

Lance Lynn has a 9.3 career SwStr% with a career 23.3 K%. That’s not a huge difference from this year, but the K% is a little higher and really on the border of an acceptable K/SwStr. Over the last month, he’s seen no change in his K% despite an even lower SwStr% and it’s been pretty consistent too if you look at his recent game log. I wouldn’t expect a huge drop, but wouldn’t be surprised if his K% took a slight hit in the 2nd half.

Masahiro Tanaka – There should be no concern about a small drop off in K% this past month because his SwStr% has actually increased.

Mike Bolsinger – I’m not a believer in his increased K% over the last month and kind of on the fence with his season rate, but he does have one of the top pitch framers in Yasmani Grandal and a double digit SwStr% in two of his last three starts.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Anibal Sanchez has some great indicators for his BABIP due to the fact that he’s allowing more fly balls and consequently more pop ups this year. The problem hasn’t been when the ball stays in the yard of course. He’s also generating a 26.3 Hard% and 6.6 Hard-Soft% that are better than average and his career rates, so with all the HRs, that seems to be manifesting itself more in his BABIP and a league average LD rate. He’s throwing more fastballs and fewer sliders and more of them in the upper middle of the plate than lower in the zone this year from a heat map comparison on fangraphs, so those of you hoping for some HR regression will have to wait until he starts locating better.

Charlie Morton – On 6/21 he was bombed for nine runs, lasting less than an inning which takes a long time to get rid of, but will drop off his last 30 days in his next start.

Drew Hutchison is really difficult to analyze do to the stark difference in not only his home and road results, but the accompanying peripherals as well. Overall though, his .358 BABIP and 65.2 LOB% are both due to greatly regress. He leans towards neutral in his batted ball profile, but has some elite indicators in the chart below, inducing plenty of pop ups and missing bats in the strike zone. He does have a 25.6 LD% that you hope adjusts, though a 31.4 Hard% seems to be showing up more there than in his HR rate, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing if it has to exist. He does generate a good deal of weak contact (22.6 Soft%) as well though.

Jordan Zimmermann has a 6.1 HR/FB, but has been below double digits in each of the last five years, his only five full seasons in the majors, including a mark below 7% three times and a 6.4 HR/FB last year. In this case, I’d expect some regression as his current number might be a bit too low, but I’m comfortable with his FIP.

Masahiro Tanaka – The issue seems to be in his 15.4 HR/FB as his FIP matches his ERA, but he’s compensated with a .257 BABIP, though his 67.3 LOB% could show improvement too if he normalizes his HR rate. Pitching in Yankee Stadium though, he just may be prone with a similar mark last year, but it’s been just over 200 innings. He has a low LD rate (17.6%), but didn’t last year and doesn’t really do anything else that might suggest a lower BABIP. I’d expect the gap between he and his team’s defense to close.

Mike Bolsinger has a .392 BABIP driving his higher ERA over the past month, but LD rate below 20% and a 3.29 GB/FB. It seems to be just a few too many ground balls getting through and with a 24.0 Hard%, it doesn’t seem like too many of them have been hit hard either. I have issues buying into a higher K% driving his estimators lower too though, so his seasonal numbers still look more believable.

Sonny Gray has a .269 career BABIP now, so there’s some merit to his .249 this year, but both that and his 4.8 HR/FB are a bit too low this season. He does back that up with a great IFFB rate in the best park for that in baseball and an unreal 13.8 LD% and 21.9 Hard% that is 2nd in baseball. These things should help him sustain an ERA below his estimators and even below three, but I’d expect something closer to his last month than an ERA just above two.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)

A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).

Lance Lynn doesn’t have anything in his profile that would suggest a high BABIP and in fact, quite the opposite with a strong pop up rate, but does have a career .308 mark now. It hasn’t seemed to hurt his ERA though, likely due to the HR suppression at home.

Trevor Bauer has a low line drive rate (17.5%) this year that he may or may not sustain, but he’s generated more than one pop up per start, which is an elite rate. Even Cleveland can catch infield flies.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

In a practice begun recently here, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Keep in mind that with everyone coming off a four day layoff, these arbitrary ratings and groupings are possibly more subjective than usual today.

Value Tier One

Jose Fernandez (1) – The numbers don’t know that he’s just coming back from TJ surgery or what goes with that. He’s very likely to occasionally experience the same command issues that Matt Harvey has because that’s what’s historically happened to great pitchers (Adam Wainwright too). That doesn’t necessarily mean walks, but it could be the occasional pitch not located where he wants it that’s hit out of the park. Even with a manual adjustment for that potential risk, he still takes the top spot overall and for value against the Phillies tonight.

Mike Bolsinger (4) – isn’t in a bad spot tonight as Washington’s reputation is much better than their actual performance this season and his strong ERA is in line with his estimators this season. He combines an above average strikeout rate with a lot of ground balls and doesn’t allow too much hard contact. His one issue is going deep into games and while that is a significant issue, a very average or even lower half of the board price tag offers the potential for a lot of excess value even if he doesn’t have tremendous upside.

Noah Syndergaard (2) has been an absolute stud over the last month or so on his way to ascending towards the upper echelons of the league, his daily fantasy cost and status rising along with that. Even at that cost against a good team, I believe he’s one of the top pitching options tonight due to the tremendous upside. The risk in facing the Cardinals seems more in their ability to play gap to gap and wear you out than in fearing they’ll hit the ball out of the park. I’m projecting him as my 2nd highest strikeout rate tonight.

Value Tier Two

Mike Leake doesn’t forecast a ton of upside, but does strike out a league average rate of batters at home and shouldn’t be too big a drain on your lineup there. Cleveland has adequate power, but he’s unlikely to play into their biggest strength which is a keen batter’s eye and the ability to take a walk. He’s been pitching very well aside from one rough start over the last month and that’s not represented in his low cost across the industry tonight. This is more a contrarian play that has a good chance of returning solid value than an enormous upside one.

Ervin Santana allowed three Detroit HRs in his last start, but has struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced in two starts with the other one being against the contact prone Royals. Those two things aren’t likely to happen in as much excess against the A’s in Oakland, but we’re still talking about a decent pitcher at a middle of the board price tag in a very good park. Due to affordability, your cash game pitchers are probably coming from the top of the board, but he’s not the worst #2 option at this price. I think he has a reasonable floor with some upside even if Oakland’s solid plate discipline and contact skills might hinder that somewhat.

Value Tier Two A

Masahiro Tanaka (3) may pose some risk in his HR rate and is one of the higher priced pitchers tonight, but doesn’t have a bad matchup and faces a team a team that will strike out. His SwStr% over the last month suggests more strikeouts than he’s been getting and in fact, I have him as one of my top 3 projected K rates tonight, although there are about five or six pitchers who are really close together in that aspect after Fernandez tonight.

Drew Hutchison is a little bit more expensive on FanDuel, where I’d have him more middle of the pack value wise, but otherwise we’re looking at a guy who pitches nearly like an Ace at home with a good matchup, in which he should be able to generate some strikeouts at a lower half of the board price. There is risk in that it’s still a tough park and nobody really understands why he’s been so good here, but that’s something you have to weigh against the general low cost.

Value Tier Three – There’s very little separation between the top of this tier and the bottom of the one directly above.

Kyle Hendricks carries a very reasonable price tag that happens to be either smack in the middle or just in the lower half on most boards. Although it’s rare to say with young pitchers, it’s really the floor I like here more than the upside. Don’t expect a ton of strikeouts, but he should generate a few and as mentioned above, rely on a good and well positioned defense to put away a weak offense while keeping the ball in a neutral park with excellent control.

Collin McHugh – There’s nothing really all that special about his performance this year, his cost today, or the spot he’s in, but I’ll give him a little boost for pitching well recently and the optimism in his SwStr%. I think his upside might be a little bit higher than the general consensus (although I can’t say I’ve consulted the general consensus more than just guessed what I think it is).

Lance Lynn (6) – I love and believe in what he’s been able to do at home and he has a great matchup tonight, but I’m a just slightly skeptical of his ability to continue striking out a quarter of the batters he’s faced with a league average SwStr rate. He’s a fine candidate for double-ups/cash games with perhaps the highest floor of the night, but a price tag I would deem closer to what he’s worth in my estimation.

Julio Teheran has some blow up potential. He has a tendency to allow walks and HRs, but not so much the HRs at home. Unfortunately, he doesn’t really come with any salary relief (at least on the big two), but I like the upside potential in his K% enough tonight to put him here. He’s kept the ball in the park at home (allowing 1 ER or less in four of his last six starts) and think he can be useful as a contrarian GPP play in this spot, where a lot of players should shy away from him due to the risk and cost.

Jorge de la Rosa is just a guy who throws with his left hand, but that’s enough to be a useful fantasy pitcher at a low price against a San Diego team that should enhance his K% in a great park. Two consecutive strong outings coming into this one are more reason for optimism.

Sonny Gray (5) – Similar to Lynn, I expect a very high floor and strong overall performance from him tonight as a pitcher worthy of your cash game/double-up consideration, but without huge strikeout upside, the price tag doesn’t leave you with a lot of wiggle room to extract excess value.

Charlie Morton is a league average pitcher who’s more real life than fantasy valuable due to an inability to miss bats, but with an elite ground ball rate and lower end price he might be slightly more valuable than you’d immediately give most pitchers credit for here against a heavily right handed, power driven lineup in a tough park.

Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Jordan Zimmermann – His strengths (walks and HRs) are the same as the Dodgers. Generally, given a neutral environment, when a good pitcher has the same strengths as the offense, I’d side with the pitcher, but with a lesser strikeout rate and little give in his price tag, I have trouble pushing him up into the next tier against a very good offense.

Mike Fiers has some upside at a reasonable price, but his K% has dropped just as quickly as his BABIP over the last month. He’s basically a league average pitcher with a park adjusted matchup against a neutral opponent.

Anibal Sanchez – Strikeout upside combined with HR risk at an upper tier price tag pretty much makes it a wash in terms of value and outcome range.

James Shields should generate his strikeouts, but even at home allows too many HRs to call him a strong value at his current price.

Trevor Bauer is probably the poster boy for wide range of outcomes mentioned above.

C.J. Wilson – Mediocre pitcher at a slightly higher than mediocre price with a good matchup in a good park equaling another likely wash.

I’d have no problem calling Wade Miley, Jake Odorizzi, and Ubaldo Jimenez Value Tier Four A

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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