Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, July 24th
Baseball is an interesting and odd game towards the end of July. The game on the field is almost of secondary importance in a lot of cases to fans and television cameras panning the dugout to see if anyone is hugging their teammates. Does this happen in any other professional sport?
It’s also one of the most difficult times of the season to write about and probably play daily fantasy baseball. We’re just getting over the All-Star break and now we have to worry about late scratches or in game removals because a guy’s been traded. For myself, I have to worry about making sure I’ve manually changed the teams of a pitcher starting his first game for a new team.
Scott Kazmir got the first hugs yesterday and debuts with the Astros today. Let’s hope I’ve matched up the stats right as see if we can spot what any major differences will be.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -10.7 | 3.66 | 6.42 | 1.55 | 0.84 | 2.96 | FLA | 88 | 82 | 97 | ||||||
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -0.5 | 4.25 | 5.66 | 1.18 | 1.4 | 4.14 | 3.41 | COL | 97 | 99 | 97 | 18.4% | 6.9% | 22.6% | 14.6% | 8.6% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 8.7 | 3.32 | 6.05 | 1.48 | 0.94 | 3.19 | 3.15 | BAL | 91 | 104 | 95 | 23.3% | 6.6% | 20.8% | 12.6% | 12.1% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.7 | 4.13 | 6.03 | 1.03 | 0.94 | 4.42 | 2.48 | TAM | 98 | 89 | 82 | 21.9% | 6.8% | 19.0% | 7.6% | 13.5% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.4 | 4.18 | 6.02 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 4.39 | 3.43 | ANA | 105 | 103 | 114 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 20.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | -3.2 | 2.76 | 6.84 | 1.5 | 0.94 | 2.71 | 3.88 | CHW | 81 | 84 | 97 | 22.8% | 5.8% | 22.3% | 10.9% | 7.2% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 5.2 | 3.8 | 5.91 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 3.86 | 5.96 | SDG | 89 | 86 | 85 | 19.5% | 6.7% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -2.5 | 3.67 | 5.65 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 4.14 | 5.08 | SEA | 99 | 93 | 108 | 19.8% | 8.0% | 20.3% | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 1.5 | 5.36 | 5.01 | 2.03 | 1.4 | 5.06 | CIN | 83 | 96 | 116 | ||||||
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | -3.1 | 2.74 | 6.65 | 2.22 | 0.85 | 2.73 | 3.95 | TOR | 100 | 107 | 115 | 21.5% | 7.8% | 18.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| Ian Thomas | LOS | 4 | 4.29 | 1.1 | 0.88 | 4.05 | NYM | 98 | 82 | 66 | |||||||
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 1 | 4.21 | 6.28 | 0.83 | 0.87 | 4.44 | 4.1 | OAK | 93 | 101 | 84 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 20.2% | 11.6% | 9.9% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -3.4 | 4.13 | 5.72 | 2.01 | 0.91 | 3.72 | 4.46 | WAS | 101 | 90 | 64 | 20.0% | 8.5% | 21.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 9.8 | 4.49 | 6.16 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 4.77 | 4.2 | HOU | 96 | 106 | 158 | 17.1% | 6.7% | 25.1% | 10.8% | 7.3% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -6.2 | 4.27 | 5.57 | 1.42 | 1.05 | 4.62 | CHC | 80 | 85 | 83 | ||||||
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -6.4 | 3.58 | 6.09 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 3.67 | 3.56 | SFO | 108 | 113 | 121 | 21.2% | 7.6% | 20.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -2.9 | 3.86 | 5.88 | 1.58 | 1.09 | 4.25 | 3.41 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 99 | 21.8% | 8.3% | 21.3% | 7.4% | 10.5% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 5.6 | 3.27 | 6.64 | 1.24 | 1.05 | 2.99 | 2.23 | PHI | 81 | 95 | 90 | 22.6% | 5.6% | 21.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.9 | 3.82 | 6.31 | 1.77 | 0.88 | 3.67 | 4.14 | LOS | 104 | 104 | 105 | 17.8% | 6.7% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 7.7% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -8.9 | 3.53 | 6.25 | 1.31 | 0.94 | 3.56 | 2.93 | CLE | 105 | 106 | 117 | 19.5% | 7.4% | 24.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 5.1 | 4.04 | 6.4 | 0.91 | 1.07 | 3.81 | 3.57 | BOS | 103 | 98 | 46 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 22.9% | 9.3% | 10.3% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | -3.7 | 4.45 | 5.07 | 1 | 0.98 | 6.31 | 5.17 | STL | 103 | 84 | 112 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 19.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -2.6 | 2.89 | 6.82 | 0.77 | 0.91 | 2.89 | 2.7 | PIT | 101 | 95 | 99 | 25.4% | 5.4% | 21.9% | 9.2% | 10.4% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -7.1 | 3.04 | 6.07 | 1.32 | 1.05 | 2.91 | 3.53 | MIN | 111 | 93 | 48 | 21.0% | 5.0% | 18.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 3.6 | 4.64 | 5.44 | 0.95 | 0.91 | 4.17 | TEX | 95 | 103 | 127 | ||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 2.6 | 3.54 | 5.81 | 1.56 | 1.09 | 3.74 | 3.06 | MIL | 91 | 81 | 138 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 15.8% | 15.9% | 5.5% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 3.3 | 3.7 | 6.07 | 0.87 | 1.05 | 3.66 | 4.7 | NYY | 90 | 108 | 109 | 17.5% | 5.0% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 11.6% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -3.1 | 3.84 | 6.28 | 1.62 | 1.07 | 3.69 | 4.5 | DET | 111 | 111 | 111 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 19.3% | 14.9% | 5.4% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | -3.4 | 3.44 | 5.9 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 3.61 | 3.72 | KAN | 109 | 100 | 126 | 18.1% | 6.0% | 19.9% | 7.9% | 6.2% |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 1.3 | 3.92 | 4.82 | 0.89 | 0.98 | 3.87 | 3.99 | ATL | 89 | 78 | 68 | 22.9% | 10.0% | 24.5% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
Andrew Cashner hasn’t been very good this year, but hasn’t allowed a HR in any of his last four starts to drop to a reasonable 11.9 HR/FB. He’s been pretty average across the board. The BABIP is up a bit, but it’s in line with what the terrible defense of the Padres allows. I don’t doubt they’re responsible for some of his decline. He’s been hit a little harder than most pitchers (30.2 Hard%), but he’s had an almost identical mark the last two years and is actually striking out a few more batters than last year. His xFIP and SIERA are similar to last year as well, so the real difference has been a HR rate that’s nearly doubled. Though there’s been no change in velocity, the SLG % against his sinker has risen over 150 points to .505. He’d go straight to the recycle bin today with many strong alternatives tonight except for the matchup. The Marlins are the second-worst offense vs RHP and are one of tonight’s top park adjusted matchups. They have a 6.9 Hard-Soft% both overall and vs RHP. Cashner has an 18.5 K-BB% and 6.1 HR/FB at home since last season.
Chris Archer has allowed at least five ERs in two of his last four starts for only the second and third times this season, due to allowing half of his 12 HRs this year over that span. It’s a bit of a concern as he had exactly the same 11.7 HR/FB two years ago in his first full season, but he’s still striking out 30% of the batters he faces and generating a good amount of weak contact as well (6.9 Hard-Soft%). The Orioles are good for both those things with a 23.7 K% on the road and a 14.5 HR/FB vs RHP, though their overall HR rate is a more manageable 11.4% on the road. The bigger park should help Archer, but he has a nearly league average 9.8 HR/FB at home since last year.
Chris Tillman has been pitching really well of late. Not only has he allowed a total of four ERs over his last four starts, but his underlying numbers are backing a lot of it up with a double digit SwStr% and 24.0 K%. His season numbers are still what they are, but his walk rate, which was 11.6% on June 16th is now 9.3% after walking a total of three batters over his last five starts after 36 in his first 13 starts. He has a great park adjusted matchup against a team that strikes out often at home (23.5%) and vs RHP (22.1%).
Colby Lewis has gone at least six innings with three ERs or less in nine of his last 10 starts. Some people call those quality starts. See, he’s not entirely useless at the right price. He does have a 20.0 Hard-Soft% this year though, despite an 18.3 LD% and 8.0 HR/FB. The thing is, he either gets absolutely pounded or he’s not terrible. The Angels have a good offense that their home park neutralizes.
Corey Kluber is having a good year, which may not be as good as last year, but the differences are minute, as his 23.0 K-BB% is nearly identical to his 22.9 K-BB% last year. His 21.9 K-BB% at home since last year is exactly the same as his 21.9 K-BB% over the past two calendar years overall. That’s remarkable consistency. The White Sox are a great park adjusted matchup. They are the 3rd worst offense on the road and vs RHP with a 4.9 total Hard-Soft%, but do have a 22.7 HR/FB since the break.
Drew Hutchison has bad road numbers that I want to ignore here considering a lot of his road starts are probably in some terrible AL East parks like Baltimore, New York, and Boston. In fact, starts in Tampa Bay and Cleveland were the only two negative run environments he’s pitched in on the road this year. He responded with nine ERs in 9.1 IP in those two starts. Sigh. Maybe we shouldn’t ignore it. I guess a 25.0 LD% is going to give you trouble in any park. The Mariners have been hitting the ball better and have a 16.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP that tops the league, but they are still a great park adjusted matchup in this park with a 22.7 K% at home.
Felix Hernandez is not having his best season with an elevated 12.1 HR/FB and 16.1 K-BB% that is lower than his last three seasons, but extremely close to his 16.4% career mark. His 7.8 BB% is the second-highest of his career. HRs and walks don’t equate to great things for a pitcher, though he’s still having a very good season by anyone else’s standards. His saving grace this year has been a great 3.7 Hard-Soft% that’s well below (better) than his career average. He has allowed just three ERs total over his last four starts, but faces a dangerous offense with a lot of power (13.5 HR/FB vs RHP, 11.8 HR/FB on the road) in any park tonight. They adjust down to a positive matchup in Safeco, but just barely.
Jake Peavy has not been good in his five starts this year. His 8.4 K-BB% would be a career low, while his 8.5 SwStr% is not terrible, but nearly matches a career low. He’s also being hit twice as hard as his career rate (20.5 Hard-Soft% vs 9.9%). Oakland would see a great park adjusted matchup with a 6.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and -1.1 Hard-Soft% since the break, but they also strike out just 17.5% vs RHP and just 13.3% since the break. The loss of the DH should help Peavy a bit, though Butler isn’t really feared against RHP.
Jeff Locke has been very mediocre this season in terms of his bat missing skills, though we’ll talk more about that later, but has done a good job of generating weak ground balls (2.12 GB/FB, 3.7 Hard-Soft%). There is some upside in his matchup tonight against a Washington team that has a -2.6 Hard-Soft%, 27.9 K%, and 64 wRC+ since the break, but a lot of that has to do with a murderer’s row of pitching they’ve faced coming back against the Dodgers and Mets. They do have a 22.1 K% vs LHP this year, though.
Jesse Chavez has been an under-appreciated pitcher who’s done a nice job the last couple of years. His 15.0 K-BB% this season is above average and he uses a great park to his advantage with better than league average pop up and HR rates. He struck out nine of 23 Twins without allowing a run in six innings in his only start since the break. He goes on the road to face a good offense and the 2nd best vs RHP with a 21.8 Hard-Soft% overall since the break, but the park pulls the offense back down to neutral. They have just a 7.9 HR/FB at home this year.
Jimmy Nelson showed some great potential in his first few starts of the season, but has been very mediocre ever since. An elite ground ball rate and strong K% in April have turned into something close to league average as the year’s worn on and combining that with a 12.6 HR/FB rate in Milwaukee can get a pitcher into trouble. He has just a 6.1 HR/FB on the road since last season, but pitches in a similarly dangerous park tonight against a neutral opponent that is enhanced by the environment. The Diamondbacks do strike out a bit more than the average team and have just a league average HR rate at home and vs RHP. Of equal important is the possibility that they may be missing their most potent LHB after Jose Fernandez drilled him in the head the other night.
Jon Niese has been pitching very well ever since he readjusted back to his old arm angle slot and without any further shoulder issues (at least publicly). He’s gone at least six innings with three ERs or less in each of his last eight starts. Unfortunately, the K rate has decreased even further to something that may not be even usable for daily fantasy purposes, but he’s helped his real life value by increasing his ground ball rate to a career high 54.7%. The Dodgers are not as potent against LHP, though still good (15.7 Hard-Soft%), but should park adjust down to neutral here.
Justin Verlander has been a disaster, but has faced some dangerous offenses in his six starts and likely isn’t as terrible as his ERA. His velocity has held steady since last season and while his K% is depressing there’s some more positive news on that front below. Further complicating things is the fact that Boston has just a 16.5 K% vs RHP, but they have been the worst offense in baseball since the break, though a bit better the last few days.
Max Scherzer has exhibited a level of dominance that I doubt anyone here needs me to recount. He’s had just five starts with fewer than seven strikeouts and three with fewer than six, combining that with a 3.4 Hard-Soft% this season. The Pittsburgh offense is fairly neutral, but park adjusts down at home. They have a 28.2 K% since the break.
Michael Pineda has been very inconsistent from start to start and has had some real blowups this year, but the overall stuff has been elite with a 21.1 K-BB% and a 19.7 K-BB% on the road with a 7.0 HR/FB since last season. Minnesota is a hard team to figure out. They’ve been a very good offense at home the last couple of years, but I can’t understand why. It doesn’t seem like a great park either, but it enhances offense. Despite that, they’ve been below average vs RHBs and putrid over the last week (26.6 K%, 5.8 HR/FB), and probably adjust to something more neutral here.
Nicholas Tropeano has a quality change-up, but the rest of his repertoire is fairly mediocre with potentially average command. He’s been able to miss bats in the minors (24.8 K% at AAA this year), but has been known to give up the long ball on occasion. Texas represents a decent offense that park adjusts down to neutral here. They have a 22.5 K% on the road.
Patrick Corbin had one bad start and two decent ones since returning from TJ surgery. He’s been held to five innings and a high of 86 pitches so far and I’d expect that to continue. Milwaukee is an offense that would seem to profile better than their actual results vs LHP (12.3 HR/FB) and they had been hot before being shut down by an A ball pitcher last night in this same great offensive environment. They also traded away one of their RHBs yesterday, but he was probably the least potent one this season.
Phil Hughes has gotten his BABIP under control this year and he never walks batters, but he just can not miss bats and the HR issues that we thought disappeared after leaving New York have returned (13.2 HR/FB). The Yankees aren’t as fearsome on the road, but pummel RHP (13.6 HR/FB) and Minnesota does have a positive run environment, though the park is much less friendly to LH power.
Tim Cooney has been decent for the Cardinals with results surpassing the underlying numbers, but he does own an average 13.3 K-BB% despite a slightly elevated walk rate. The chief concern is that he’s allowed a lot of hard contact (21.4 Hard-Soft%), but pitches in the right park, though he’s allowed three HRs at home (all in his first two starts). The Braves are a team that strikes out a bit more vs LHP (21.8%) with the 3rd worst offense against them and a weak road offense as well. They don’t hit the ball hard (4.7 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) and are one of the top park adjusted matchups today.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Scott Kazmir (.262 BABIP – 77.5 LOB% – _7.2 HR/FB) – His BABIP should remain stable in Houston as the defenses are comparable in that respect and he never really induced a ton of pop ups. The biggest difference he may see is an increase in HR rate with the park shift, but that might not be a problem in Kansas City today. What could be a problem is their very low strikeout rate capping his upside.
Dan Haren (.251 BABIP – 79.7 LOB% – 9.9 HR/FB) – This is today’s arbitrary cutoff point. It’s not like he’d be a terrible choice, but there are so many better ones. He does have one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight though.
Manuel Banuelos (.255 BABIP – 92.2 LOB% – 5.3 HR/FB) – He’s had seven walks and just six strikeouts since his first start, but the Cardinals stink against lefties and were dominated by John Danks this week, so who knows?
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Eddie Butler – I bet you didn’t know he owns a 2.6 Hard-Soft% this year.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.8% | 6.5% | Home | 23.5% | 5.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 17.2% | 7.6% | Road | 18.5% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 23.9% | 7.2% | Home | 25.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 3.7% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 18.7% | 7.9% | Road | 17.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 17.5% | 5.7% | Road | 17.5% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27.1% | 5.2% | Home | 27.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 5.2% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 19.1% | 4.7% | Road | 19.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.4% | 7.4% | Road | 20.3% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 9.7% | 11.2% | Home | 9.5% | 9.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 26.3% | 6.2% | Home | 26.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 9.6% |
| Ian Thomas | Dodgers | 21.9% | 14.6% | Road | 16.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.2% | 7.4% | Home | 17.9% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.1% | 8.9% | Home | 16.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 9.4% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 13.4% | 5.5% | Home | 11.6% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 3.9% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 14.9% | 6.9% | Road | 12.0% | 8.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.1% | 7.4% | Road | 22.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.4% | 7.8% | Road | 17.6% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 8.6% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 23.6% | 5.8% | Home | 25.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 1.9% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.3% | 6.1% | Home | 17.2% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 1.9% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 21.2% | 5.9% | Road | 20.3% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 1.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.2% | 7.3% | Road | 19.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 18.6% | 10.0% | Road | 7.4% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 14.8% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.2% | 5.8% | Road | 29.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 1.8% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 22.8% | 2.9% | Road | 22.0% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 3.9% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 15.7% | 8.7% | Home | 20.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 20.1% | 5.6% | Home | 19.1% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 4.9% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.4% | 2.8% | Home | 18.1% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 2.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 16.9% | 5.6% | Home | 16.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 13.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 23.0% | 6.6% | Road | 22.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 3.6% |
| Tim Cooney | Cardinals | 22.9% | 9.5% | Home | 25.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 13.0% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 21.4% | 6.0% | RH | 20.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.7% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.8% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.8% |
| Rays | Home | 23.5% | 7.4% | RH | 22.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.0% |
| Angels | Home | 20.0% | 7.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.7% | 5.3% | RH | 20.1% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 7.4% |
| Padres | Home | 23.4% | 6.4% | RH | 22.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.7% | 7.8% | RH | 21.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.9% |
| Reds | Road | 19.5% | 7.3% | RH | 18.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.8% | 7.7% | RH | 19.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 15.2% | 9.0% |
| Mets | Home | 19.9% | 8.3% | LH | 24.1% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.3% | 8.0% | RH | 17.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 13.3% | 4.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.4% | 8.4% | LH | 22.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 27.9% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Road | 24.0% | 7.3% | RH | 25.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.5% | 9.2% | RH | 24.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 11.0% |
| Giants | Home | 17.9% | 7.3% | RH | 18.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 8.3% | RH | 20.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.8% | 7.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.5% | 5.8% | LH | 20.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.3% | 9.9% | LH | 20.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.0% |
| Indians | Home | 19.0% | 10.0% | LH | 17.8% | 10.1% | L7Days | 15.5% | 10.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 8.0% | RH | 16.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.0% | 8.6% | LH | 23.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.1% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.2% | 5.7% |
| Twins | Home | 18.6% | 6.6% | RH | 20.6% | 6.6% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.5% | 7.2% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.5% | 5.8% | LH | 19.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 7.9% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 7.8% | RH | 18.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.4% | 7.7% | RH | 19.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Home | 14.3% | 6.1% | LH | 15.1% | 5.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.7% |
| Braves | Road | 18.3% | 7.3% | LH | 21.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 10.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.5% | 8.5% | 7.4% | Home | 19.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.9% | 8.4% | 6.5% | Road | 20.9% | 4.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.0% | 9.9% | 10.8% | Home | 22.5% | 9.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 19.8% | 9.2% | 10.1% | Road | 19.5% | 10.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | 21.0% | 9.2% | 9.5% | Road | 21.8% | 9.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 22.9% | 8.1% | 10.7% | Home | 20.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Dan Haren | Marlins | 20.1% | 10.9% | 10.7% | Road | 20.2% | 13.6% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.0% | 9.7% | 10.3% | Road | 21.6% | 9.6% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | 23.9% | 14.3% | 11.1% | Home | 22.8% | 12.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 18.3% | 10.9% | 8.7% | Home | 17.8% | 11.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% |
| Ian Thomas | Dodgers | 22.8% | 9.5% | 14.3% | Road | 36.4% | 12.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 20.1% | 9.1% | 10.9% | Home | 19.9% | 6.3% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.2% | 12.3% | 7.9% | Home | 21.8% | 9.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 23.1% | 9.4% | 9.0% | Home | 22.4% | 7.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 38.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 23.5% | 12.9% | 7.0% | Road | 23.2% | 9.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.5% | 9.0% | 11.1% | Road | 20.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.5% | 10.6% | 10.0% | Road | 19.9% | 6.1% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 20.9% | 7.1% | 12.1% | Home | 21.8% | 5.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 21.9% | 10.3% | 6.3% | Home | 23.6% | 10.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | Road | 23.4% | 8.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.6% | 8.2% | 12.2% | Road | 23.3% | 8.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 20.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | Road | 14.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.5% | 6.7% | 10.2% | Road | 20.8% | 6.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 19.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | Road | 20.2% | 7.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | Angels | 12.9% | 0.0% | 2.6% | Home | 12.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 21.8% | 15.6% | 10.0% | Home | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 36.4% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 23.9% | 9.1% | 11.3% | Home | 22.3% | 10.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 11.8% | 17.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 21.7% | 11.8% | 7.9% | Home | 20.4% | 11.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 21.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | Road | 21.6% | 11.6% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tim Cooney | Cardinals | 23.2% | 10.7% | 0.0% | Home | 21.1% | 18.8% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlins | Road | 22.0% | 12.3% | 7.9% | RH | 20.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 6.3% | 10.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.7% | 12.6% | 9.1% | RH | 21.2% | 14.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 14.7% | 17.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.0% | 11.4% | 10.4% | RH | 21.3% | 14.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Rays | Home | 21.3% | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 14.9% | 8.1% | 19.4% |
| Angels | Home | 21.1% | 12.2% | 11.1% | RH | 20.3% | 12.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.1% | 9.1% | 11.4% | RH | 21.6% | 10.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 22.7% | 2.3% |
| Padres | Home | 19.2% | 11.0% | 6.2% | RH | 18.9% | 9.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 14.7% | 12.3% | 3.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.0% | 10.8% | 8.4% | RH | 19.8% | 11.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 15.2% | 7.6% |
| Reds | Road | 20.7% | 9.0% | 10.3% | RH | 21.5% | 10.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 18.8% | 11.8% | 14.3% | RH | 18.6% | 13.5% | 13.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 18.0% | 8.2% |
| Mets | Home | 21.5% | 10.6% | 11.8% | LH | 20.2% | 13.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.7% | 3.2% | 14.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.2% | 10.7% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.5% | 20.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 13.1% | 10.3% | LH | 19.2% | 10.5% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.4% | 12.8% | 17.0% |
| Astros | Road | 21.9% | 11.9% | 11.5% | RH | 20.4% | 15.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.8% | 8.6% | 12.0% | RH | 19.7% | 10.2% | 10.5% | L7Days | 22.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Giants | Home | 20.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | RH | 21.9% | 10.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 16.7% | 2.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.6% | 10.4% | 7.4% | RH | 21.4% | 10.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.0% | 3.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.1% | 6.5% | 9.4% | LH | 22.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.6% | 13.8% | 8.1% | LH | 22.7% | 10.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% |
| Indians | Home | 22.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | LH | 23.8% | 8.1% | 5.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.8% | 10.5% | 11.1% | RH | 20.4% | 9.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | LH | 20.2% | 9.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 17.9% | 10.4% | 6.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.1% | 10.2% | 6.4% | RH | 21.0% | 9.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | RH | 20.5% | 9.2% | 11.9% | L7Days | 14.8% | 5.8% | 7.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.1% | 12.4% | 8.8% | RH | 18.6% | 11.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.8% | 12.8% | 14.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.0% | 9.6% | 7.1% | LH | 16.3% | 12.3% | 5.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 13.3% | 2.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.5% | 10.4% | 9.1% | RH | 21.3% | 13.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.7% | 10.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 12.2% | 5.9% | RH | 21.8% | 10.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 14.5% | 3.2% |
| Royals | Home | 21.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | LH | 24.3% | 7.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.6% | 13.2% | 7.4% |
| Braves | Road | 22.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | LH | 21.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.7% | 3.2% | 9.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 20.7% | 8.6% | 2.41 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.36 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 17.0% | 8.7% | 1.95 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 2.40 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 30.0% | 12.9% | 2.33 | 27.0% | 12.6% | 2.14 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 17.6% | 8.0% | 2.20 | 24.0% | 10.6% | 2.26 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 17.5% | 7.8% | 2.24 | 14.5% | 8.8% | 1.65 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 28.2% | 13.4% | 2.10 | 29.0% | 12.2% | 2.38 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 17.1% | 5.8% | 2.95 | 13.2% | 4.4% | 3.00 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.18 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 1.83 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 11.4% | 6.8% | 1.68 | |||
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 23.9% | 10.8% | 2.21 | 23.6% | 10.0% | 2.36 |
| Ian Thomas | LOS | 16.7% | 9.4% | 1.78 | 28.6% | 20.0% | 1.43 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 16.8% | 8.5% | 1.98 | 16.1% | 9.6% | 1.68 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.5% | 9.1% | 1.92 | 15.2% | 9.7% | 1.57 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 11.9% | 6.3% | 1.89 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 2.47 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 12.5% | 8.6% | 1.45 | |||
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 21.2% | 8.9% | 2.38 | 18.3% | 7.2% | 2.54 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.9% | 10.8% | 1.84 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 1.90 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 23.7% | 10.1% | 2.35 | 27.6% | 10.7% | 2.58 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.0% | 5.7% | 2.63 | 12.8% | 5.9% | 2.17 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 20.7% | 10.0% | 2.07 | 23.7% | 10.8% | 2.19 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 14.5% | 8.7% | 1.67 | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 18.6% | 9.6% | 1.94 | 18.6% | 9.6% | 1.94 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.8% | 14.4% | 2.07 | 25.7% | 14.4% | 1.78 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 24.3% | 12.2% | 1.99 | 24.3% | 15.6% | 1.56 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 20.8% | 11.3% | 1.84 | |||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.10 | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.10 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.1% | 5.4% | 2.61 | 12.7% | 5.8% | 2.19 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.3% | 8.5% | 2.15 | 19.5% | 8.5% | 2.29 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 23.0% | 10.8% | 2.13 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 2.32 |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 22.9% | 9.1% | 2.52 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 2.51 |
Jeff Locke had a slightly higher 9.4 SwStr% last year with a 16.2 K%. The 234.2 IP sample size over the last two seasons isn’t large enough to say, but you start to wonder if he’s a rare outlier at this point in his career despite some great framing in Pittsburgh.
Justin Verlander has the lowest SwStr% of his career and even his increase over the last month would be below league average and his career rate. That 14.5 K% is just said, but probably also a bit misleading. I don’t know if he’ll ever even strike out a league average rate of hitters, but I think he can get back into the high teens.
Michael Pineda has bottomed out at an 11.4 SwStr% over his last four starts and has just one mark below 11.3% over his last nine starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.1 | 3.74 | -0.36 | 3.69 | -0.41 | 3.85 | -0.25 | 3.05 | 3.96 | 0.91 | 3.78 | 0.73 | 2.44 | -0.61 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.99 | 4.44 | 0.45 | 4.28 | 0.29 | 3.91 | -0.08 | 5.79 | 3.5 | -2.29 | 3.34 | -2.45 | 4.44 | -1.35 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.73 | 2.63 | -0.1 | 2.59 | -0.14 | 2.69 | -0.04 | 4.54 | 3.1 | -1.44 | 3.41 | -1.13 | 4.37 | -0.17 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.96 | 4.49 | -0.47 | 4.49 | -0.47 | 4.14 | -0.82 | 1.4 | 2.91 | 1.51 | 2.96 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 0.15 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 4.63 | 4.13 | -0.5 | 4.41 | -0.22 | 3.89 | -0.74 | 6.23 | 4.57 | -1.66 | 4.77 | -1.46 | 5.27 | -0.96 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 3.38 | 2.72 | -0.66 | 2.71 | -0.67 | 2.48 | -0.9 | 2.65 | 2.66 | 0.01 | 2.61 | -0.04 | 2.07 | -0.58 |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 3.46 | 4.29 | 0.83 | 4.47 | 1.01 | 4.31 | 0.85 | 4.25 | 4.68 | 0.43 | 4.84 | 0.59 | 4.04 | -0.21 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.19 | 3.82 | -1.37 | 3.87 | -1.32 | 3.76 | -1.43 | 4.64 | 3.92 | -0.72 | 4.08 | -0.56 | 3.25 | -1.39 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 4.8 | 5.28 | 0.48 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 5.55 | 0.75 | |||||||
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 2.77 | 3.17 | 0.4 | 3.09 | 0.32 | 3.24 | 0.47 | 1.04 | 3.45 | 2.41 | 3.21 | 2.17 | 2.3 | 1.26 |
| Ian Thomas | LOS | 5.23 | 5.31 | 0.08 | 5.32 | 0.09 | 6.36 | 1.13 | 0 | 3.53 | 3.53 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 2.56 | 2.56 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.94 | 4.56 | -0.38 | 4.85 | -0.09 | 4.71 | -0.23 | 3.2 | 4.66 | 1.46 | 4.93 | 1.73 | 4.79 | 1.59 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.01 | 4.04 | 0.03 | 3.85 | -0.16 | 3.68 | -0.33 | 2.15 | 4.01 | 1.86 | 3.71 | 1.56 | 3 | 0.85 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.36 | 4.94 | -0.42 | 4.84 | -0.52 | 4.7 | -0.66 | 4.91 | 4.56 | -0.35 | 4.43 | -0.48 | 3.61 | -1.3 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 6.43 | 4.64 | -1.79 | 4.57 | -1.86 | 5.48 | -0.95 | |||||||
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.21 | 3.63 | 0.42 | 3.61 | 0.4 | 3.11 | -0.1 | 5.14 | 4.03 | -1.11 | 4.08 | -1.06 | 4.24 | -0.9 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.29 | 3.91 | -0.38 | 3.93 | -0.36 | 4.15 | -0.14 | 3.38 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 3.63 | 0.25 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.37 | 3.23 | -0.14 | 3.11 | -0.26 | 3.06 | -0.31 | 2.23 | 2.81 | 0.58 | 2.82 | 0.59 | 1.83 | -0.4 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.36 | 4.06 | 0.7 | 3.92 | 0.56 | 4.08 | 0.72 | 1.53 | 4.52 | 2.99 | 4.37 | 2.84 | 3.43 | 1.9 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.83 | 3.5 | -0.33 | 3.46 | -0.37 | 3.25 | -0.58 | 3.58 | 2.68 | -0.9 | 2.49 | -1.09 | 2.18 | -1.4 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 6.62 | 4.81 | -1.81 | 5.01 | -1.61 | 6.06 | -0.56 | 6.85 | 4.53 | -2.32 | 4.93 | -1.92 | 5.26 | -1.59 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 1.08 | 4.44 | 3.36 | 4.71 | 3.63 | 3.9 | 2.82 | 1.08 | 4.45 | 3.37 | 4.71 | 3.63 | 3.9 | 2.82 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.09 | 2.51 | 0.42 | 2.84 | 0.75 | 2.13 | 0.04 | 3.03 | 2.81 | -0.22 | 3.07 | 0.04 | 2.73 | -0.3 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 3.77 | 2.8 | -0.97 | 2.72 | -1.05 | 2.9 | -0.87 | 2.28 | 2.77 | 0.49 | 2.78 | 0.5 | 3.03 | 0.75 |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0 | 3.41 | 3.41 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.8 | 3.24 | -1.56 | 3.51 | -1.29 | 5.4 | 0.6 | 4.8 | 3.24 | -1.56 | 3.51 | -1.29 | 5.4 | 0.6 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.15 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 4.18 | 0.03 | 4.63 | 0.48 | 3.27 | 4.57 | 1.3 | 4.46 | 1.19 | 5.06 | 1.79 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.79 | 3.89 | -1.9 | 3.95 | -1.84 | 4.63 | -1.16 | 6.63 | 3.56 | -3.07 | 3.47 | -3.16 | 5.64 | -0.99 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.38 | 3.59 | 1.21 | 3.51 | 1.13 | 3.09 | 0.71 | 1.37 | 2.91 | 1.54 | 3.01 | 1.64 | 1.85 | 0.48 |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 3.33 | 3.91 | 0.58 | 4.05 | 0.72 | 4.05 | 0.72 | 2.45 | 3.96 | 1.51 | 4.1 | 1.65 | 3.7 | 1.25 |
Corey Kluber – If he has one issue, it’s his .325 BABIP that probably isn’t going to change much because it’s the same as his career mark. That may or may not say that he has some contact management issues. His LD% is a bit above normal this year and for his career, but his 9.7 Hard-Soft% this year and 9.4% mark for his career are fairly normal. The Cleveland defense has done him no favors over the past few years, but that doesn’t seem to be changing anytime soon.
Jesse Chavez – Although he seems to have taken a step downward over the last month with an 11.9 K-BB% and .322 BABIP, he had a huge bounce back in his last start.
Jon Niese doesn’t really have anything off base in his BABIP or LOB%. In fact, his 12.2 HR/FB is the second-highest of his career, but is compensated for by a stronger ground ball rate. You wouldn’t expect an 8.0 K-BB% to lead to a lower ERA than his career rate then, but he ends up with a lot of unearned runs, nine already this year.
Jose Quintana has a 15.4 K-BB% that’s nearly identical to last season, but a regressed HR rate (5.1 HR/FB to 8.9 HR/FB this year) has made most of the difference, though an atrocious defense has likely played a part in a 20 points rise in BABIP. Cleveland has a good offense that is not built on power (8.0 HR/FB across the board), but great plate discipline and Hawk Harrelson’s favorite, OBP (10 BB% across the board). They have the 5th best offense vs LHP, but park adjust to a near average matchup here.
Justin Verlander is not what he used to be and maybe not even above average anymore, but I’d expect his 16.3 HR/FB to regress and increase his 64.6 LOB% in the process. There’s nothing wrong with his BABIP.
Michael Pineda – Despite the great stuff, he has no great indicators in his profile, batted ball rates, or contact authority stats that represent anything out of the ordinary. I’d guess that would suggest some regression in his BABIP. He also has a 12.2 HR/FB that he probably can’t do much about in Yankee Stadium, but he’s not pitching there tonight.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.302 | 0.312 | 0.01 | 9.2% | 88.9% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.283 | 0.293 | 0.01 | 8.9% | 86.0% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.277 | 0.280 | 0.003 | 6.8% | 84.9% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.290 | 0.314 | 0.024 | 16.1% | 88.3% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.292 | 0.290 | -0.002 | 8.6% | 89.9% |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.306 | 0.325 | 0.019 | 7.7% | 85.8% |
| Dan Haren | FLA | 0.288 | 0.251 | -0.037 | 12.8% | 92.3% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.288 | 0.350 | 0.062 | 14.4% | 85.4% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.312 | 0.335 | 0.023 | 12.5% | 89.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.290 | 0.265 | -0.025 | 12.5% | 88.2% |
| Ian Thomas | LOS | 0.298 | 0.233 | -0.065 | 18.2% | 86.4% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.298 | 0.011 | 2.5% | 88.2% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.297 | 0.317 | 0.02 | 5.1% | 87.2% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.280 | 0.320 | 0.04 | 8.4% | 89.2% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.323 | 0.345 | 0.022 | 8.2% | 90.6% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.278 | 0.298 | 0.02 | 15.0% | 84.6% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.307 | 0.296 | -0.011 | 10.7% | 86.4% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.288 | 0.306 | 0.018 | 8.2% | 87.7% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.283 | 0.288 | 0.005 | 5.6% | 93.1% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.315 | 0.338 | 0.023 | 4.5% | 87.0% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.301 | 0.287 | -0.014 | 8.2% | 87.8% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 0.307 | 0.255 | -0.052 | 5.3% | 90.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.312 | 0.251 | -0.061 | 15.2% | 80.3% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.298 | 0.337 | 0.039 | 9.2% | 85.1% |
| Nicholas Tropeano | ANA | 0.276 | 0.278 | 0.002 | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.292 | 0.286 | -0.006 | 5.9% | 91.7% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.297 | 0.292 | -0.005 | 12.1% | 92.0% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.302 | 0.324 | 0.022 | 4.3% | 86.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.282 | 0.262 | -0.02 | 4.1% | 85.6% |
| Tim Cooney | STL | 0.293 | 0.299 | 0.006 | 0.0% | 90.8% |
Chris Tillman has a BABIP 47 points above last season and 36 points above his career rate. All of his batted ball rates are in line with his career rates except for a spike to an elite IFFB%. His 19 already this year are nearly a career high (23). His Z-Contact% is right on his career rate and his contact authority has actually improved greatly from his career rate (6.9 Hard-Soft% vs 13.1%). In addition, Baltimore has a great defense. This looks like a complete fluke.
Drew Hutchison has a .350 BABIP that seems completely unsustainable along with a 66.4 LOB% that should regress as well, though that 25.0 LD% isn’t doing him any favors and is exactly what he had two seasons ago in his abbreviated rookie season. He has supplemented that with an elite pop up rate this year and has a good defense, so some improvement is expected, but he’d be doing himself a great favor in learning how to change that number, which jumps to 28.4% with a .426 BABIP on the road.
Max Scherzer has a BABIP well below what’s expected from his defense, but has elite indicators (IFFB, Z-Contact). I’d suspect his 25 pop ups leads the majors, though I can’t find that for sure. He’s induced a lot of weak contact this year. I’d still think this rises a little, but maybe the defense regresses towards .300 as well.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Chris Tillman – Far be it from me to endorse this pitcher on a normal basis. In fact, I’m usually on the other end, waving the red flag, but after seemingly hitting rock bottom, there’s been some real noticeable improvement over the last month that his significantly reduced price tag (compared to last season and early this year) hasn’t caught up to yet. I never thought he was as good as his numbers last year, but neither is he as bad as his 4.96 ERA right now. In fact, most of his ERA estimators are very similar with the last month possibly being the best he’s pitched over the entire stretch. I believe you’re getting a very reasonable price on him tonight and would strongly consider pairing him with an elite pitcher tonight to leave cap space for offense.
Tim Cooney has had some difficulties with hard hit balls, but pitches in a big park with and has a great matchup in that respect. He’s been able to generate some strikeouts and the Braves do miss the ball more than league average vs LHP. He makes for a fine, and likely contrarian, GPP accessory tonight, like Tillman.
Value Tier Two
Patrick Corbin makes another potentially solid low priced play. He has talent and has looked decent at times as he’s worked his way back from TJS. This one is a bit riskier though because even though the Brewers have been awful vs LHP, they should be better and this is a great offensive environment. He’s also unlikely to go further than five innings, but could generate enough value to be worth it over that span.
Michael Pineda (6) may be someone I’d rather use in GPPs than cash games due to the inconsistency, but he’s either been bad or dominant with dominant being the more likely of the two and one of those performances here could generate a lot of value with a high, but not elite price tag. The range of outcomes is obviously wide here.
Corey Kluber (1t) – I actually have him for the third-highest K% tonight, but nearly even with #2 (Archer) and not far behind Scherzer. I have him completely even with Scherzer overall due to the better matchup, but the much lower price tag (though still one of the most expensive) gives him a nice edge in expected value.
Value Tier Three
Justin Verlander – This is the really sneaky one here, but I don’t think he’s been as bad as portrayed. He’s not good anymore, but there seems to be something left in the tank from velocity readings and his SwStr%, at least more than it’s looked like on the surface. You’re getting a near rock bottom price here against an offense that’s been bad and I think he has a good chance of exceeding it. This is obviously a high-risk play with a very wide range of potential outcomes.
Chris Archer (4t) – As mentioned just above, I see him nearly even with Kluber in terms of strikeout potential, but with a similar price tag, I have him just a bit lower overall and in terms of value due to the matchup. It’s a great park, but there have been some HR tendencies lately and he’s facing a team with a lot of power.
Felix Hernandez (4t) is a bit less this year and is facing a tough offense, but he’s still a stud pitching in a great park and the #4 price tag on some sites.
Jesse Chavez is our first real middle of the board mention here and if you were looking to pair a stud with someone in this range, he’s the one I’d choose. He’s been a fine pitcher, who bounced back strong from a sub-standard month in his last outing and while he’s facing a good offense, he’s doing so in a great park.
Max Scherzer (1t) – As mentioned earlier, I have him as the top strikeout rate tonight, but not by a wide margin and fairly even with Kluber overall, but the cost is tremendous. The state of the Pittsburgh lineup could end up giving him a small bump later as they’ve been putting out some minor league quality bats near the bottom recently.
Value Tier Three A
Jose Quintana is a slightly above average pitcher with an average price tag facing a good offense in a pitcher’s park. I know that was a mouthful, but that should allow him to generate some excess value. He’s the 2nd mid-price option I’d look to behind Chavez.
Jeff Locke may not have as much upside in his strikeout rate that I thought his SwStr% has shown over the last year or so, but he does generate a lot of weak ground balls and faces a struggling offense in a great park at a low cost. The low ceiling makes him less attractive than similarly priced guys above him here.
NOTE Jon Lester is my #3 overall pitcher today, but goes this afternoon against the Phillies unfortunately.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Nicholas Tropeano
Editor’s Note: Drew Hutchison was scratched from tonight’s start. Marco Estrada will start in his place.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.