Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, July 31st
This is it. By the time tonight’s games kick off, all of the dugout hugging will be over. While there’s still the chance a scheduled pitcher could be scratched prior to the deadline, you’ll know well in advance and won’t have to worry about trades pulling players from your lineup after lock. The most agonizing week of the DFS baseball season is finally over. Just wait until September now when rosters expand.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
Editor’s Note: Ian Kennedy was originally set to start but was then declared out. However, that has changed and Kennedy is back in as tonight’s starter.
Editor’s Note: Clayton Kershaw has been scratched from his start tonight. Zack Greinke will start in his place.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | DET | 5.1 | 3.86 | 4.05 | 0.97 | 1.04 | 4.34 | BAL | 108 | 101 | 85 | ||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -8.9 | 4.04 | 5.4 | 1.78 | 1.08 | 4.36 | 2.64 | NYY | 97 | 111 | 145 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 24.1% | 11.6% | 6.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4 | 2.21 | 7.14 | 1.88 | 0.89 | 1.72 | 0.6 | ANA | 98 | 98 | 104 | 28.0% | 5.3% | 18.6% | 8.8% | 8.9% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -3.2 | 3.06 | 5.68 | 0.97 | 0.93 | 3.26 | 3.26 | OAK | 101 | 98 | 60 | 22.7% | 7.6% | 19.9% | 11.1% | 8.1% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | -6.2 | 4.51 | 5.67 | 1.58 | 1.01 | 4.68 | 5.12 | ATL | 84 | 89 | 52 | 15.4% | 7.8% | 19.5% | 6.5% | 16.6% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 5.2 | 4.24 | 5.79 | 1.22 | 1.01 | 3.91 | 4.57 | SDG | 86 | 89 | 115 | 19.9% | 7.2% | 21.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | -2.5 | 3.69 | 5.62 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 3.46 | 4.74 | KAN | 96 | 102 | 56 | 18.4% | 6.3% | 22.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -3.1 | 3.95 | 5.55 | 1.11 | 1.07 | 3.78 | 5.03 | TAM | 89 | 111 | 114 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 21.8% | 14.8% | 10.1% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 8.7 | 4.14 | 5.15 | 1.17 | 1.07 | 4.21 | 3.98 | BOS | 103 | 96 | 112 | 16.8% | 6.2% | 20.6% | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -2.6 | 3.64 | 5.88 | 1.56 | 0.88 | 3.48 | 3.38 | NYM | 102 | 79 | 127 | 21.3% | 7.9% | 19.9% | 10.7% | 6.8% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.6 | 4.29 | 5.41 | 0.67 | 0.89 | 4.28 | 3.18 | LOS | 120 | 111 | 97 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 20.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | -10.7 | 3.61 | 5.79 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 3.63 | 2.93 | FLA | 86 | 79 | 54 | 21.8% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 10.8% | 7.1% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 5.6 | 3.39 | 5.9 | 0.99 | 1.07 | 3.28 | 4.7 | MIL | 90 | 91 | 41 | 21.5% | 6.9% | 21.3% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -3.4 | 4.14 | 5.68 | 1.99 | 1.02 | 4.11 | 4.55 | CIN | 112 | 99 | 116 | 17.5% | 9.0% | 22.8% | 11.1% | 6.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 9.8 | 3.24 | 7.02 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 3.6 | 5.93 | TOR | 126 | 107 | 122 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 20.3% | 10.1% | 11.8% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -6.4 | 4.32 | 5.57 | 1.83 | 0.93 | 4.55 | 4.78 | CLE | 95 | 99 | 107 | 17.1% | 8.4% | 21.2% | 21.6% | 8.1% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 1.5 | 4.62 | 5.85 | 1.23 | 0.98 | 4.74 | 5.49 | STL | 101 | 101 | 83 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1 | 3.1 | 6.5 | 1.22 | 1.08 | 3.19 | 3.81 | TEX | 94 | 83 | 98 | 21.7% | 6.9% | 20.1% | 8.6% | 10.9% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.9 | 3.37 | 6.59 | 1.29 | 0.88 | 3.31 | 5.13 | WAS | 101 | 98 | 104 | 20.2% | 7.1% | 19.2% | 13.0% | 9.9% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | -0.5 | 5.19 | 5.37 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 4.54 | 5.32 | PIT | 92 | 97 | 116 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 24.3% | 14.8% | 4.5% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.3 | 3.58 | 5.94 | 1.29 | 0.98 | 3.66 | 3.49 | COL | 88 | 103 | 134 | 22.4% | 7.2% | 19.4% | 14.8% | 9.2% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | -7.1 | 3.96 | 5.89 | 1.51 | 1.08 | 3.88 | 3.65 | CHW | 76 | 88 | 147 | 19.1% | 6.6% | 21.3% | 8.2% | 7.6% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.4 | 5.02 | 5.58 | 0.9 | 1.08 | 5.27 | 5 | SFO | 111 | 113 | 108 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 22.0% | 12.3% | 8.2% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 2.6 | 3.91 | 5.92 | 1.58 | 1.01 | 3.88 | 4.04 | HOU | 116 | 106 | 108 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 18.7% | 15.7% | 7.1% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | -3.4 | 4.29 | 6.12 | 1.62 | 1.01 | 4.1 | 5.23 | ARI | 97 | 96 | 109 | 16.3% | 7.2% | 21.7% | 11.6% | 9.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -3.1 | 3.67 | 5.58 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 4.03 | 3.74 | MIN | 114 | 92 | 146 | 19.7% | 6.9% | 24.3% | 15.2% | 9.4% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | -2.9 | 3.85 | 6.56 | 1.75 | 1.07 | 3.97 | 4.39 | CHC | 96 | 86 | 78 | 22.4% | 9.7% | 21.0% | 7.4% | 11.7% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.3 | 4.33 | 5.54 | 1 | 1.05 | 4.59 | 3.49 | SEA | 86 | 90 | 127 | 19.4% | 6.3% | 20.2% | 16.9% | 11.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 7.7 | 3.81 | 6.07 | 1.02 | 1.04 | 3.64 | 4.84 | DET | 104 | 112 | 66 | 19.5% | 5.5% | 21.1% | 11.0% | 9.1% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | -3.7 | 4.4 | 5.78 | 1.83 | 1.01 | 4.6 | PHI | 84 | 81 | 127 |
Carlos Rodon has an impressive 24.1 K%, but a below average 11.3 K-BB% because he can’t throw strikes and that prevents him from going deep in games. In fact, his last start was only the second time he pitched more than six innings and he hasn’t completed seven yet, averaging just over five innings per start. He gets a tough Yankee team with a 9.1 BB% and 13.2 HR/FB vs RHP. It may be the worst park adjusted matchup of the night.
Editor’s Note: Clayton Kershaw has been scratched from his start tonight. Zack Greinke will start in his place.
Clayton Kershaw hasn’t allowed a run in any of his last three starts with a combined 38 strikeouts in 26 innings without a single walk. He has a 30.1 K-BB% at home since last season. A hip issue caused him to be pushed back from Wednesday. Maybe he’ll allow a run and only strike out nine. The Angels are a neutral offense that adjusts down do to park. Oakland has just a 15.6 K% at home and 17.6 K% vs RHP and will pull his strikeout rate down, but struggled for power (6.7 HR/FB at home) and to hit the ball hard (5.3 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). They’re a great overall park adjusted matchup.
Danny Salazar has gone at least six innings and struck out exactly eight in each of his last three starts. Who wouldn’t sign up for that line right now? His 21.8 K-BB% is seventh in the majors, but just third on his own team. HRs have been an issue (14.9 HR/FB), but he has otherwise managed contact better this year (7.9 Hard-Soft%). Oakland is a fine park adjusted matchup with just a -8.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week and just a 6.7 HR/FB at home. They do have a low 15.6 K% at home (17.6% vs RHP).
David Phelps is not a pitcher we look at very often. He’s below league average and has the lowest SwStr rate in the majors at 4.7%. To put that in perspective, next worst is Mark Buehrle at 5.3%. In addition, he has a 19.0 Hard-Soft%. So he doesn’t miss bats and gets hit hard, what’s to like? He pitched in a big park, where he’s only allowed one HR this season, but really it’s about matchup and cost if you’re considering using him today. It also means you’re in a GPP where you want to use Kershaw. San Diego has been hitting well, but have a 19.2 K-BB% over the last week, a 21.9 K% on the road and vs RHP, and make for a favorable overall matchup with little park adjustment.
Drew Hutchison pitches extremely well at home for some reason with an 18.2 K-BB% there since last season. He struggled in his last start in Seattle, but may have been feeling the after effects of a recent bout with the flu. In nine home starts this season, he’s allowed more than two ERs just twice and no more than four. He has significantly different batted ball rates at home this year (more ground balls, fewer line drives) despite similar contact authority rates. The Royals are cold and are about a neutral overall matchup even in the favorable park on the road, but we all know what they do to an opposing pitcher’s expected strikeout rate.
Erasmo Ramirez snapped a run of nine straight starts with two ERs or less when he allowed five in his last start, although he wasn’t going very deep into games during that run (more than six innings only once). He’s been about a league average pitcher this season, but faces a neutral offense that gets a park bump in Boston. The Red Sox have just a 16.4 K% vs RHP.
Gio Gonzalez has made some changes we all know about by now. More ground balls and fewer strikeouts this year, though he still strikes out a league average rate of batters. It’s killed his BABIP, possibly unfairly but allowed him to almost never allow HRs anymore. His 1.91 GB/FB in July is his lowest of any month this season though and even though his K% didn’t rise, his SwStr was below 9.8% in just one of four starts over the last month. He has a great park adjusted matchup against an offense with a 24.4 K% vs LHP.
Editor’s Note: Ian Kennedy was originally set to start but was then declared out. However, that has changed and Kennedy is back in as tonight’s starter.
Ian Kennedy has allowed at least one HR in 12 of his last 14 starts and has a 20.2 Hard-Soft% with a 20.6 HR/FB this year, but maintains some usefulness with a league average strikeout rate. For some reason, just eight of his 22 HRs have been on the road (in eight of 18 starts), which still isn’t good since he’s pitched almost exclusively in pitcher’s parks on the road. Even though Miami is neutral for run environment, it’s tough to hit the ball out of. You’d think that helps him tonight, but who knows? The Marlins are the worst offense in the majors vs RHP and ice cold over the last week. They represent the top matchup tonight with little park adjustment required.
Jason Hammel was roughed up in his last start, but is having a great season overall, highlighted by an elite 19.9 K-BB% that’s by far the best of his career even with a significant drop in K% over the last month. Despite pitching in Milwaukee tonight, he has a great park adjusted matchup against an offense a little bit weaker after Hug Week. The Brewers have been ice cold over the last week (23.1 K%, -7.0 Hard-Soft%, 2.4 HR/FB) and have a 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Madison Bumgarner has pitched very consistently in line with last season and the rest of his career this year. He’s allowed two ERs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He gets a park downgrade tonight but faces a team that’s really bad vs LHP (23.0 K%) with a lot of their offense batting from that side. Even with a positive park adjustment, they rate slightly below neutral here.
Matt Harvey has a greatly reduced, but still well above average 16.8 K-BB% this season with a significant drop in his K% over the last month. He’s struck out more than six in just one of his last eight starts, so maybe we need to temper expectations. The good news is that the velocity is fine. If it’s not that, though, what is it? Unfortunately, we don’t have time to explore today, but his 18.6 K-BB% has been slightly better at home. Washington rates as a neutral challenge that park adjusts to a good one, but you have to consider the fact that they are at nearly full strength for maybe the first time all season. The strike out almost exactly 21% on the road, vs RHP, and over the last week, but have an above 13.0 HR/FB in all three of those situations as well.
Michael Wacha has been incredibly inconsistent from a run prevention standpoint this season and it’s not just a home and away thing as it is for some St Louis pitchers. His 14.4 K-BB% is slightly above average, but with recent struggles, it’s difficult to generate an expectation for him tonight. The Rockies are well known for being a bad road offense and have a 24.1 K% away from Coors this year, but also a 13.2 HR/FB and have hit well over the last week (21.3 HR/FB) on the road. While Tulo might be a big loss from this offense, it pushes them even more left handed, which shouldn’t pose too much of a problem to a pitcher with reverse splits so far in his career.
Nathan Eovaldi has allowed two ERs exactly in five of his last seven starts and no more than three in any of them. Even though it doesn’t show in his K%, his SwStr% is up to league average over the last month as well. He also has a GB rate above 50% for the first time in his career, which can only help in Yankee Stadium. He’s not at home tonight, but still in a dangerous park facing the worst home offense in baseball with a 5.6 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. However, they’re also the hottest offense in baseball and might actually rate as a tough matchup tonight.
Rubby de la Rosa represents a high risk, high reward option tonight. He’s striking out a league average rate of batters and much fewer over the last month though his SwStr% in both instances suggests more. He’s allowed a 20.2 HR/FB though. While Houston is an overall significant park upgrade from Chase Field, it’s not so different in terms of power and Houston is a tough matchup here. They have an 18.2 HR/FB at home and 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP. They strike out 24.3% at home and 24.6 K% vs RHP though.
Taijuan Walker had a great run for just over a month and waited for my endorsement before blowing up in four straight now. He’s still generating a lot of strikeouts with estimators better than his ERA lately, though. The difference (aside from his last start) has been the improved control sustaining through most of this rough patch while his strand rate has dropped below 50%. He’s had a 13+ HR/FB in each of the last three months though with six multiple HR games this year. The upside is that he’s allowed a total of five HRs over the other 14 starts I guess. How do you figure out who you’re going to get, though? The Twins are a hot team (20.9 HR/FB and 16.1 K% over the last week) and one of the top home offenses in the league. In a positive run environment, this is a very tough park adjusted matchup.
Taylor Jungmann hasn’t been as his ERA suggests. He does have an 11.6 K-BB% that’s just about league average though with a strong ground ball rate and 6.2 Hard-Soft%, so it’s not like he’s been bad. He’s also giving them innings with at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. The Cubs represent a good matchup even with a positive park adjustment and that’s because they strike out so much (23.8% on the road, 24.3% vs RHP) with the 3rd worst overall offense vs RHP.
Tommy Milone has little upside in a 16.9 K%, but does generate a lot of pop ups and weakly hit balls (5.5 Hard-Soft%). After five straight starts without a HR, he’s allowed five in his last two. Seattle rates as an overall neutral matchup with the park upgrade here, but have a 14.4 K-BB% vs LHP.
Wei-Yin Chen has increased his K% to nearly league average this year with a career-best 3.6 Hard-Soft% as well. Although he’s probably not this good and a 12.6 HR/FB is a worry, he’s having one of the better years of his career and has just a 4.0 BB% at home since last year. That should help him in a tough home park against the 2nd best offense vs RHP, though they do strike out 22.8% against them and have been cold lately.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Hector Santiago (.259 BABIP – 87.4 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – I have very little issue with BABIP or HR/FB in his situation (great park and defense with a ton of fly balls and a lot of pop ups), but that strand rate is one of two in baseball over 85%, trailing only Greinke. The Dodgers now strangely have the same wRC+ vs LHP that they do vs RHP this season and are very tough at home.
Johnny Cueto (.234 BABIP 76.4 LOB% – 8.5 HR/FB) – A couple of things here. First, the Reds and Royals allow essentially the same BABIP, so I don’t see where that actually improves. His BABIP in the .230’s for the third straight season may have to be considered the ultimate outlier now and isn’t why he’s down here. His 8.5 HR/FB should actually improve a bit in Kansas City, but he’s in Toronto tonight with a bottom three park adjusted matchup at a high cost against the best home offense in the majors. That’s why he’s down here.
Williams Perez (.289 BABIP – 83.3 LOB% – 9.8 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Eduardo Rodriguez has good stuff, but has been mediocre and faces a team that handles lefties well in a tough park.
Buck Farmer has a 9.5 SwStr% in 13.2 innings this year, but has also allowed four HRs with a 39.6 Hard% and gets a tough park assignment against a team with a lot of power.
David Buchanan
Kendall Graveman has very low ceiling against Cleveland.
Nick Martinez has one of the worst park-adjusted matchups tonight. Yeah, the Giants are that good and the top offense vs RHP.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | 20.7% | 8.1% | Road | 19.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 24.1% | 12.8% | Home | 22.8% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 6.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 31.5% | 4.7% | Home | 34.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 44.6% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.6% | 7.2% | Road | 27.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 11.3% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 13.4% | 7.5% | Home | 12.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 17.5% | 8.2% | Home | 19.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.3% | 7.4% | Home | 25.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 20.6% | 7.9% | Home | 21.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.5% | 8.2% | Road | 18.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 22.4% | 8.5% | Road | 23.0% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 20.0% | 9.1% | Road | 20.3% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 23.5% | 8.3% | Road | 22.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 3.9% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.8% | 5.5% | Road | 24.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 9.5% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 16.9% | 8.7% | Road | 17.7% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 24.4% | 6.4% | Road | 21.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 14.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 14.9% | 7.8% | Home | 12.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 13.5% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.1% | 6.6% | Road | 11.8% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 25.0% | 5.6% | Road | 23.3% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 22.3% | 5.2% | Home | 23.1% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 8.8% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 15.2% | 12.6% | Home | 16.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.8% | 6.9% | Home | 19.7% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 10.6% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 16.8% | 5.9% | Road | 16.0% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 13.0% | 8.7% | Home | 13.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 10.6% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.2% | 7.2% | Road | 17.9% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 12.1% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 14.7% | 7.0% | Home | 12.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.2% | 7.4% | Road | 19.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 19.8% | 8.2% | Home | 21.4% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 13.5% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 16.4% | 7.0% | Home | 15.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 2.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 19.1% | 5.3% | Home | 18.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 11.3% | 1.9% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 17.8% | 10.8% | Road | 14.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 21.0% | 7.0% | RH | 22.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.3% | 7.8% | LH | 18.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 8.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.3% | 7.4% | LH | 18.5% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.6% | 7.2% | RH | 17.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.9% | 5.2% |
| Braves | Road | 18.1% | 7.0% | RH | 17.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 4.7% |
| Padres | Road | 21.9% | 7.4% | RH | 21.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 3.8% |
| Royals | Road | 16.9% | 5.4% | RH | 16.0% | 5.8% | L7Days | 15.3% | 3.7% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 7.3% | LH | 22.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 6.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.1% | 7.7% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 5.5% |
| Mets | Home | 19.8% | 8.3% | LH | 24.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 8.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.1% | 8.5% | LH | 20.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 20.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.1% | 6.9% |
| Reds | Home | 18.0% | 8.8% | LH | 19.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 15.9% | 9.6% | RH | 19.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.2% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 17.6% | 8.7% | RH | 18.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 5.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.6% | 8.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | LH | 23.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 9.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.3% | 8.3% | RH | 21.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.6% | 6.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 5.9% | RH | 19.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 6.8% | RH | 20.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Road | 19.1% | 7.1% | RH | 17.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.2% |
| Astros | Home | 24.3% | 9.3% | RH | 24.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 5.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.9% | 7.7% | RH | 21.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.6% |
| Twins | Home | 18.3% | 6.6% | RH | 20.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.8% | 8.8% | RH | 24.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.3% | 7.3% | LH | 20.9% | 5.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.7% | 7.4% | LH | 22.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.5% | 6.4% | RH | 19.1% | 5.8% | L7Days | 19.5% | 4.8% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | 16.9% | 20.0% | 3.3% | Road | 18.4% | 22.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 26.4% | 9.1% | 5.5% | Home | 27.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.5% | 8.2% | 12.3% | Home | 21.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 22.2% | 12.5% | 10.4% | Road | 20.9% | 12.9% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| David Buchanan | Phillies | 19.6% | 9.0% | 14.1% | Home | 17.1% | 9.0% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| David Phelps | Marlins | 23.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | Home | 23.6% | 7.1% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 21.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | Home | 20.3% | 10.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 23.3% | 12.5% | 15.6% | Home | 23.5% | 15.4% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 20.3% | 12.1% | 10.1% | Road | 18.8% | 11.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 5.9% | 29.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | Road | 17.7% | 9.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | 18.6% | 8.3% | 12.0% | Road | 20.4% | 8.2% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Padres | 22.5% | 12.7% | 8.2% | Road | 22.2% | 9.0% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.0% | 11.0% | 6.3% | Road | 23.1% | 11.4% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 22.8% | 11.9% | 7.9% | Road | 20.6% | 14.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 19.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% | Road | 21.2% | 7.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 23.0% | 14.3% | 6.0% | Home | 22.7% | 18.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.7% | 12.9% | 10.8% | Road | 20.1% | 10.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.6% | 9.6% | 12.9% | Road | 18.3% | 10.7% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | 18.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | Home | 18.4% | 12.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 26.1% | 17.7% | 6.3% | Home | 26.6% | 19.0% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.8% | 7.2% | 9.4% | Home | 20.2% | 7.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Yankees | 22.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | Road | 22.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.3% | 9.1% | 10.8% | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 27.3% | 9.1% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 20.3% | 15.7% | 7.9% | Road | 23.3% | 17.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 22.9% | 10.8% | 7.5% | Home | 23.2% | 12.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 22.9% | 11.8% | 11.2% | Road | 25.1% | 11.8% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Jungmann | Brewers | 17.5% | 4.2% | 8.3% | Home | 23.9% | 0.0% | 30.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 21.5% | 12.2% | 14.7% | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 38.5% | 15.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | 21.3% | 12.1% | 10.3% | Home | 21.8% | 12.4% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.0% | 9.8% | 4.9% | Road | 17.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | L14 Days |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 21.5% | 15.8% | 8.2% | RH | 21.3% | 14.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.5% | 12.0% | 17.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.9% | 11.4% | 8.6% | LH | 18.2% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 17.3% | 6.2% |
| Angels | Road | 18.2% | 11.6% | 9.2% | LH | 18.5% | 11.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | RH | 21.1% | 8.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.7% | 8.8% | RH | 22.1% | 7.3% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.8% | 13.5% |
| Padres | Road | 20.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | RH | 19.2% | 10.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| Royals | Road | 23.6% | 9.2% | 10.1% | RH | 21.7% | 8.9% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% |
| Rays | Road | 21.2% | 9.5% | 9.9% | LH | 20.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 17.0% | 14.8% | 9.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | RH | 20.5% | 9.6% | 11.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 10.9% | 5.5% |
| Mets | Home | 21.8% | 11.8% | 11.4% | LH | 20.2% | 12.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 24.5% | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.0% | 13.9% | 8.5% | LH | 22.5% | 11.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 15.9% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.6% | 9.6% | 8.5% | RH | 20.3% | 10.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.8% | 11.5% | 6.5% | RH | 20.9% | 9.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.5% | 2.4% | 11.9% |
| Reds | Home | 23.0% | 13.8% | 8.5% | LH | 22.7% | 13.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 12.9% | 4.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.3% | 15.2% | 14.6% | RH | 18.7% | 13.5% | 12.9% | L7Days | 19.0% | 15.0% | 13.3% |
| Indians | Road | 20.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | RH | 20.6% | 10.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 10.1% | 13.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.9% | 7.6% | 9.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.6% | 13.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 10.8% | 8.4% | LH | 19.2% | 11.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 13.6% | 10.1% | RH | 20.9% | 13.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 26.5% | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | RH | 21.1% | 9.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 15.1% | 3.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.9% | 13.2% | 9.0% | RH | 21.5% | 14.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.9% | 21.3% | 9.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.6% | 10.6% | 9.5% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.9% | 14.3% | 3.6% |
| Giants | Road | 23.3% | 12.7% | 5.5% | RH | 21.6% | 10.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Home | 18.6% | 18.2% | 9.7% | RH | 20.2% | 15.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.7% | 10.9% | 10.2% | RH | 21.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.7% | 12.2% | 10.9% | RH | 20.6% | 9.3% | 11.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 20.9% | 7.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.2% | 10.3% | 8.1% | RH | 19.7% | 10.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 19.2% | 3.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.1% | 12.4% | 8.3% | LH | 20.4% | 12.0% | 12.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 16.7% | 4.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 11.7% | 6.3% | LH | 23.7% | 11.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | RH | 22.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.4% | 7.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.07 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | DET | 18.5% | 9.5% | 1.95 | 25.0% | 12.1% | 2.07 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 24.1% | 10.5% | 2.30 | 29.5% | 11.8% | 2.50 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.9% | 16.1% | 2.11 | 37.5% | 17.9% | 2.09 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.8% | 12.8% | 2.25 | 24.8% | 12.5% | 1.98 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 11.4% | 7.2% | 1.58 | 14.0% | 10.0% | 1.40 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 16.0% | 4.7% | 3.40 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 2.76 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 20.4% | 9.5% | 2.15 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 1.74 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 20.6% | 8.3% | 2.48 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 2.08 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.7% | 12.4% | 1.59 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 1.84 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.3% | 9.3% | 2.18 | 20.4% | 11.9% | 1.71 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 22.7% | 8.7% | 2.61 | 23.3% | 7.6% | 3.07 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 | 20.9% | 8.0% | 2.61 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.28 | 18.3% | 9.3% | 1.97 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 17.7% | 9.3% | 1.90 | 19.0% | 11.2% | 1.70 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 23.3% | 10.8% | 2.16 | 20.9% | 11.3% | 1.85 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 14.6% | 7.3% | 2.00 | 14.6% | 6.9% | 2.12 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.8% | 6.1% | 1.93 | 14.1% | 6.4% | 2.20 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 24.6% | 11.9% | 2.07 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 2.06 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 23.0% | 11.4% | 2.02 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 1.83 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 15.2% | 8.2% | 1.85 | 16.7% | 9.8% | 1.70 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 20.3% | 10.0% | 2.03 | 25.3% | 11.2% | 2.26 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 16.5% | 8.3% | 1.99 | 16.8% | 9.4% | 1.79 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.6% | 7.6% | 1.79 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.88 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.73 | 15.1% | 10.0% | 1.51 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 13.4% | 6.5% | 2.06 | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.22 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.8% | 10.2% | 2.24 | 23.9% | 12.0% | 1.99 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.61 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 2.32 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 16.9% | 7.6% | 2.22 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 2.56 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 19.4% | 8.8% | 2.20 | 14.3% | 9.4% | 1.52 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 17.8% | 5.2% | 3.42 |
David Phelps – NO! No, no, no, no, no. His SwStr has been at least 6.1% in each of his last four starts though. That somehow represents a major improvement and might allow him to sustain his current K%.
Erasmo Ramirez – I still think there’s some upside in that K%. His SwStr% is just outside the top 10 in baseball with all the guys ahead of him striking out at least a quarter of opposing batters. He’s had a sub 9.9 SwStr% in just two of 15 starts. Tonight may not be the night he realizes that potential against Boston though.
Rubby de la Rosa struck out six of his first 71 batters in July, but six of 31 in his last start. With a double digit SwStr% for the season and past month, I’m not concerned. Unfortunately, Arizona catchers have combined for -11.3 RAA per StatCorner.com in the pitch framing department, though I still think his K% has some upside.
Wei-Yin Chen – I’m unconcerned about the recent K% dip as his SwStr% has actually improved.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.83 ERA – 3.76 SIERA – 3.83 xFIP – 3.83 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | DET | 9.22 | 3.86 | -5.36 | 4.06 | -5.16 | 6.22 | -3 | 5.4 | 2.75 | -2.65 | 3.74 | -1.66 | 6.37 | 0.97 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.09 | 4.03 | -0.06 | 3.79 | -0.3 | 3.63 | -0.46 | 4.15 | 3.68 | -0.47 | 3.55 | -0.6 | 3.91 | -0.24 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.51 | 2.05 | -0.46 | 1.9 | -0.61 | 2.12 | -0.39 | 0.27 | 1.33 | 1.06 | 1.3 | 1.03 | 0.62 | 0.35 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.72 | 2.91 | -0.81 | 3 | -0.72 | 3.48 | -0.24 | 2.94 | 3.4 | 0.46 | 3.47 | 0.53 | 3.34 | 0.4 |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 7 | 5.42 | -1.58 | 5.32 | -1.68 | 4.41 | -2.59 | 3.18 | 4.63 | 1.45 | 4.49 | 1.31 | 2.63 | -0.55 |
| David Phelps | FLA | 3.86 | 4.29 | 0.43 | 4.2 | 0.34 | 3.71 | -0.15 | 2.57 | 4.35 | 1.78 | 4.41 | 1.84 | 3.36 | 0.79 |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 5.42 | 3.87 | -1.55 | 3.92 | -1.5 | 3.99 | -1.43 | 7.32 | 4.31 | -3.01 | 4.59 | -2.73 | 5.01 | -2.31 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.26 | 3.95 | -0.31 | 3.92 | -0.34 | 4.15 | -0.11 | 4.15 | 4.3 | 0.15 | 4.25 | 0.1 | 5.07 | 0.92 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.74 | 3.81 | 0.07 | 3.96 | 0.22 | 3.76 | 0.02 | 2.73 | 3.7 | 0.97 | 3.8 | 1.07 | 3.95 | 1.22 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 3.83 | 3.58 | -0.25 | 3.47 | -0.36 | 3.17 | -0.66 | 1.88 | 3.4 | 1.52 | 3.44 | 1.56 | 3.24 | 1.36 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.43 | 3.89 | 1.46 | 4.29 | 1.86 | 3.83 | 1.4 | 1.88 | 3.36 | 1.48 | 3.63 | 1.75 | 2.37 | 0.49 |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 4.58 | 3.73 | -0.85 | 3.84 | -0.74 | 5.25 | 0.67 | 3.29 | 3.83 | 0.54 | 4.14 | 0.85 | 5.53 | 2.24 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.2 | 3.17 | -0.03 | 3.27 | 0.07 | 3.16 | -0.04 | 4.86 | 4.31 | -0.55 | 4.43 | -0.43 | 4.75 | -0.11 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.15 | 4.08 | -0.07 | 3.86 | -0.29 | 3.66 | -0.49 | 2.84 | 3.77 | 0.93 | 3.53 | 0.69 | 2.76 | -0.08 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.62 | 3.38 | 0.76 | 3.44 | 0.82 | 3.14 | 0.52 | 1.59 | 3.84 | 2.25 | 3.89 | 2.3 | 2.49 | 0.9 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 4.13 | 4.47 | 0.34 | 4.31 | 0.18 | 4.75 | 0.62 | 6.52 | 4.49 | -2.03 | 4.29 | -2.23 | 5.82 | -0.7 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 6.33 | 4.97 | -1.36 | 4.98 | -1.35 | 6.01 | -0.32 | 7.88 | 4.48 | -3.4 | 4.4 | -3.48 | 4.45 | -3.43 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.16 | 3.17 | 0.01 | 3.24 | 0.08 | 3.2 | 0.04 | 3.97 | 3.77 | -0.2 | 4.01 | 0.04 | 4 | 0.03 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 3.16 | 3.46 | 0.3 | 3.51 | 0.35 | 3.7 | 0.54 | 3.81 | 4.83 | 1.02 | 4.71 | 0.9 | 5.15 | 1.34 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 4.58 | 5.18 | 0.6 | 4.93 | 0.35 | 5.83 | 1.25 | 8.83 | 5.04 | -3.79 | 4.91 | -3.92 | 6.54 | -2.29 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 3.27 | 3.61 | 0.34 | 3.49 | 0.22 | 3.31 | 0.04 | 5.25 | 3.17 | -2.08 | 3.21 | -2.04 | 4.03 | -1.22 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 4.27 | 3.88 | -0.39 | 3.72 | -0.55 | 3.43 | -0.84 | 2.76 | 3.45 | 0.69 | 3.44 | 0.68 | 2.53 | -0.23 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.08 | 4.81 | 0.73 | 4.91 | 0.83 | 4.93 | 0.85 | 8.04 | 4.5 | -3.54 | 4.67 | -3.37 | 7.03 | -1.01 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.52 | 3.64 | -0.88 | 3.51 | -1.01 | 4.57 | 0.05 | 3.99 | 4.31 | 0.32 | 4.15 | 0.16 | 6.01 | 2.02 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 4.54 | 4.2 | -0.34 | 3.8 | -0.74 | 4.25 | -0.29 | 3.38 | 5.23 | 1.85 | 4.62 | 1.24 | 5.1 | 1.72 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 5.03 | 3.55 | -1.48 | 3.77 | -1.26 | 4.3 | -0.73 | 6.26 | 3.29 | -2.97 | 3.77 | -2.49 | 4.83 | -1.43 |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 2.14 | 3.85 | 1.71 | 3.93 | 1.79 | 3.23 | 1.09 | 1.75 | 4.1 | 2.35 | 4.08 | 2.33 | 3.27 | 1.52 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.58 | 4.37 | 0.79 | 4.32 | 0.74 | 4.87 | 1.29 | 4.57 | 3.8 | -0.77 | 3.8 | -0.77 | 5.24 | 0.67 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 2.88 | 3.85 | 0.97 | 3.98 | 1.1 | 4.27 | 1.39 | 2.86 | 4.4 | 1.54 | 4.46 | 1.6 | 4.69 | 1.83 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 2.88 | 4.39 | 1.51 | 4.44 | 1.56 | 4.33 | 1.45 |
Clayton Kershaw in July: 35.8 K-BB% with a -11.1 Hard-Soft% and 0.62 FIP. I don’t know if I’ve seen a better month in the time I’ve been doing this.
Danny Salazar – The gap between his ERA/FIP and other estimators is mostly due to the 14.9 HR/FB. He’s allowed a HR in 14 of 18 starts, but more than one only once.
David Phelps – Nothing’s changed in July. He’s stranded 80.5% of his runners with a 4.0 HR/FB. A 7.3 HR/FB in his home park might be sustainable overall and help keep his ERA below four.
Drew Hutchison has a .351 BABIP on a 25.6 LD%. At home though, it’s a .277 BABIP with a 21.5 LD%. He has a 79.9 LOB% and 6.0 HR/FB, both of which are probably just as unsustainable, at home vs a 57.0 LOB% and 15.4 HR/FB on the road. It’s not just a luck thing either. His xFIP is significantly better at home. He actually performs much better in a tough stadium in Toronto than he does on the road.
Editor’s Note: Ian Kennedy was originally set to start but was then declared out. However, that has changed and Kennedy is back in as tonight’s starter.
Ian Kennedy – While we all know about the 20.6 HR/FB, his ERA is lower than his FIP potentially due to 15.5% of his runs (nine) being unearned.
Nathan Eovaldi has the highest GB rate of his career (51.8%) that has led to little improvement in ERA, but an even higher .348 BABIP. Some of that is probably defense, but he also has a .317 career rate. His hard contact is exactly his career rate this year (30.6%), but he’s increased his weak contact to 19.6% with less in the middle. His 22.1 LD% is right on his career mark too, though he’s generating fewer overall pop ups due to the increased in grounders.
Taijuan Walker has a 14.2 HR/FB, which is strange for Seattle, but a 31.6 Hard% is a lot of hard hit balls and he is a fly ball pitcher (0.93 GB/FB). He now has a 67.5 LOB% for the season after a 48.9% mark in July. He had 93.1 LOB% in June. The good news is that his BB rate has remained below 4% in both months. HRs have really hurt him though.
Taylor Jungmann has a .258 BABIP that is certain to see regression after just nine starts, but also an 81.3 LOB% and 4.2 HR/FB that are not sustainable either, especially in Milwaukee. He is doing a good job of managing contact authority so far though (24.8 Hard%).
Tommy Milone has generated about a pop up per start throughout his career and slightly more this year for an elite rate. He has a .291 career BABIP though with a normal line drive rate, so I don’t think his BABIP is sustainable. His 79.2 LOB% is borderline. On the other end, a 14.3 HR/FB is a career high, but Oakland is a better park than Minnesota for LHP, so I’m not sure about that one yet, although eight of his 13 HRs this season have been allowed on the road, including three in Oakland two starts back.
Wei-Yin Chen has a career low .264 BABIP, but it’s not so low and with a good defense that it’s unsustainable for a fly ball pitcher who manages contact well. The 83.9 LOB% is not sustainable though and fly balls are a dangerous thing in Baltimore. He’s allowed 13 HRs at home this year.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.3 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.303 | 0.409 | 0.106 | 6.3% | 83.8% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.315 | 0.349 | 0.034 | 5.5% | 86.4% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.299 | 0.295 | -0.004 | 12.5% | 77.3% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.304 | 0.292 | -0.012 | 5.9% | 81.0% |
| David Buchanan | PHI | 0.320 | 0.349 | 0.029 | 14.3% | 90.4% |
| David Phelps | FLA | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.003 | 10.1% | 91.6% |
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.288 | 0.351 | 0.063 | 13.9% | 85.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.265 | -0.04 | 15.6% | 87.7% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.276 | 0.255 | -0.021 | 14.9% | 82.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.310 | 0.339 | 0.029 | 1.4% | 87.2% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.279 | 0.259 | -0.02 | 10.7% | 86.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | SDG | 0.297 | 0.291 | -0.006 | 8.4% | 86.4% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.293 | 0.268 | -0.025 | 4.2% | 86.8% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.302 | 0.315 | 0.013 | 4.9% | 86.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.280 | 0.234 | -0.046 | 10.8% | 85.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.282 | 0.304 | 0.022 | 6.0% | 91.7% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.314 | 0.299 | -0.015 | 8.1% | 90.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.285 | 0.293 | 0.008 | 14.9% | 87.1% |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.284 | 0.265 | -0.019 | 12.1% | 83.3% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.282 | 0.282 | 0 | 6.3% | 88.0% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.291 | 0.269 | -0.022 | 11.1% | 85.4% |
| Nathan Eovaldi | NYY | 0.298 | 0.348 | 0.05 | 6.2% | 88.1% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.296 | 0.289 | -0.007 | 10.9% | 90.8% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.291 | 0.285 | -0.006 | 6.4% | 83.2% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 0.279 | 0.303 | 0.024 | 8.3% | 90.9% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.291 | 0.310 | 0.019 | 10.4% | 84.7% |
| Taylor Jungmann | MIL | 0.306 | 0.258 | -0.048 | 8.3% | 91.0% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.296 | 0.256 | -0.04 | 15.4% | 88.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | BAL | 0.287 | 0.264 | -0.023 | 11.3% | 87.5% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.305 | 0.289 | -0.016 | 4.9% | 91.9% |
Carlos Rodon has induced three pop ups, has a terrible defense, and a 26.4 LD%. That’ll do it.
Gio Gonzalez – Though it hasn’t affected his ERA due to a 7.2 HR/FB, he’s inducing a lot of ground balls that aren’t being caught. He has just one pop up this season, but a 19.8 LD% and a bad defense behind him. Contact authority is about average so we can’t say that he’s dominating with weak ground balls all the time, but a 58.1 GB% deserves a better fate. Will he earn one with this defense?
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Editor’s Note: Clayton Kershaw has been scratched from his start tonight. Zack Greinke will start in his place.
Clayton Kershaw (1) – He nearly doubles the expected fantasy points of every other pitcher and nobody else comes close in projected K%. He’s far and away the top overall pitcher tonight and with a pretty sizeable gap in value as well, even at an enormous cost.
Value Tier Two
Editor’s Note: Ian Kennedy was originally set to start but was then declared out. However, that has changed and Kennedy is back in as tonight’s starter.
Ian Kennedy (4t) – Yeah, that wasn’t the name I was expecting to see here either, but there seem to be a lot of accurately priced pitchers on most sites today. Here, you’re paying a mid-range to low price for a pitcher with a HR problem in any stadium. Miami should benefit him, but who knows. This is mostly about their offense, or lack of it, and his ability to maintain an above average K rate. He’s among a big group in competition for the 2nd projected K% way behind Kershaw tonight.
Danny Salazar (2) is another in that group for the #2 K rate tonight. His stuff is good enough that even though Oakland might pull his rate down, it should still be above average. It’s a great park against a team with little power that’s been struggling offensively since trading Zobrist.
Jason Hammel (4t) has had a great year, faces a diminished Milwaukee lineup, and is in that group for 2nd best K% as well. The price is higher than average, but still very reasonable for the type of year he’s having. The only real downside is the tough park.
Value Tier Three – All three of these pitchers would be Tier Four on any other day.
Gio Gonzalez (4t) could really be a Two A as he doesn’t separate much from the last pitcher above. He has a similar, but higher price tag across the board, but might have a slightly better matchup against a team that really struggles against LHP with a high strikeout rate. They do get one of their top RHBs (Travis D’Arnaud) back again before he leaves for his next rehab assignment. He two is in that fight for #2 K%.
Drew Hutchison – Kansas City will probably push his K% below average, but there seems to be something real going on that we can take advantage of in Toronto as there’s little price adjustment to account for venue. The Royals rate fairly neutrally overall here and his cost is low.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There is a huge cluster of guys who seem fairly accurately priced tonight. Some should give you fine overall performances and could be fine in cash games if you can fit them with Kershaw (probably not), but I’d make him the priority and that’s the issue here.
Michael Wacha (8) has a decent matchup, but a lot of inconsistency (especially recently) at a high price. He’s among that second tier group for strikeouts behind Kershaw.
Madison Bumgarner (3) – Also in that expected #2 strikeout rate group, I’m actually of mind to bump him a bit higher than the numbers suggest because the Rangers lean so left handed. It’s a high cost in a tough park, though it’s a bit harder on LH power than it’s been in the past. Of the high priced pitchers, I’m fine using him tonight over someone like Salazar in cash games, but would still really try to reach for Kershaw if possible.
David Phelps has a good matchup at a very low price.
Matt Harvey (7) has seen a drop in strikeout rate, but not much of one in cost and faces a nearly full strength Washington team tonight.
Rubby de la Rosa with perhaps the widest range of potential outcomes tonight. Three HRs and nine strikeouts would not surprise me.
Value Tier Four A
Wei-Yin Chen
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.