Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, July 3rd
Because there’s so much variance in day to day baseball results, I usually don’t like to box myself into corners with hard predictions, but the act of ranking pitchers and putting them into value tiers Wednesday was both fun and felt like it helped organize things and answer some common questions, so we’re going to keep that format today and see how it goes. Of course, the first day it really bombs, I’ll probably ditch it. If you disagree with any of the assessments, go with it because you’re probably right.
All pitchers are listed today, but we’re only covering the 13 that start after 7pm EST in the notes. Have a happy holiday weekend everyone!
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | -2.4 | 3.87 | 5.2 | 0.38 | 0.98 | 3.87 | ATL | 91 | 73 | 70 | ||||||
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -13.3 | 3.65 | 6.29 | 1.63 | 0.98 | 4.25 | 2.9 | STL | 106 | 106 | 83 | 20.4% | 7.2% | 22.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 5.1 | 3.54 | 6.23 | 1.28 | 1.05 | 3.69 | 3.51 | TOR | 100 | 108 | 129 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 20.2% | 17.8% | 13.6% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -5.5 | 3.61 | 6.02 | 2.9 | 0.91 | 3.74 | 3.62 | CLE | 94 | 99 | 92 | 18.7% | 6.9% | 21.4% | 11.8% | 7.6% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.4 | 4.01 | 5.7 | 1.22 | 1.09 | 3.77 | 5.7 | COL | 82 | 95 | 61 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 20.8% | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 12.9 | 3.38 | 6.08 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 3.25 | 3.05 | NYY | 130 | 108 | 82 | 21.1% | 7.6% | 20.2% | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 5.7 | 2.3 | 7.12 | 1.78 | 0.89 | 1.69 | 2.06 | NYM | 72 | 96 | 49 | 27.9% | 5.7% | 22.2% | 11.3% | 14.1% |
| Dan Straily | HOU | -3.9 | 4.33 | 5.61 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 4.81 | BOS | 107 | 101 | 98 | ||||||
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 2.9 | 3.65 | 5.69 | 0.9 | 1.05 | 4.16 | 3.39 | DET | 111 | 105 | 117 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 22.0% | 8.1% | 8.8% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 1.9 | 3.54 | 6.27 | 2.02 | 1.08 | 3.39 | 3.62 | TEX | 102 | 100 | 110 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 18.8% | 11.5% | 9.2% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | -3.4 | 3.58 | 5.91 | 1.55 | 1.03 | 3.31 | 2.81 | SFO | 115 | 103 | 130 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 21.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | -4.8 | 4.03 | 5.73 | 1.05 | 0.93 | 4.36 | 4.11 | OAK | 108 | 93 | 87 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 19.3% | 7.7% | 10.5% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.5 | 4.19 | 6.26 | 0.84 | 1.03 | 3.97 | WAS | 96 | 100 | 82 | ||||||
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 5.4 | 3.51 | 6.04 | 1.01 | 1.05 | 3.62 | 2.93 | FLA | 89 | 83 | 92 | 23.2% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 10.3% | 11.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 12.4 | 4.48 | 6.19 | 1.18 | 1.04 | 4.75 | 3.75 | MIN | 76 | 89 | 104 | 17.5% | 6.1% | 22.4% | 8.9% | 10.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -8.1 | 3.59 | 6.12 | 1.19 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 4.83 | SEA | 82 | 86 | 73 | 20.0% | 7.5% | 21.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| John Danks | CHW | -12 | 4.55 | 6.07 | 1.07 | 1.08 | 4.43 | 5.4 | BAL | 94 | 105 | 99 | 17.9% | 6.2% | 19.3% | 14.8% | 7.2% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -2.1 | 3.79 | 6.34 | 0.85 | 0.98 | 3.62 | 3.92 | PHI | 77 | 76 | 96 | 19.6% | 5.8% | 21.6% | 6.0% | 10.7% |
| Justin Masterson | BOS | -3.8 | 3.93 | 5.25 | 2.63 | 1.07 | 4.23 | 1.96 | HOU | 102 | 107 | 112 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 17.4% | 11.7% | 9.2% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.7 | 4.63 | 5.97 | 1.26 | 1.09 | 4.8 | 4.47 | ARI | 94 | 94 | 105 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 20.3% | 14.4% | 10.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -5.2 | 2.78 | 6.52 | 1.47 | 1.02 | 2.89 | 3.96 | TAM | 90 | 90 | 55 | 24.5% | 6.0% | 20.6% | 16.1% | 9.4% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 1.2 | 5.24 | 5.81 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 4.55 | 4.66 | MIL | 83 | 87 | 131 | 17.2% | 8.5% | 24.2% | 12.7% | 6.0% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 5.7 | 3.62 | 5.93 | 1.27 | 0.98 | 3.69 | 3.03 | SDG | 88 | 88 | 87 | 21.9% | 6.6% | 21.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | -3.4 | 3.34 | 5.82 | 0.85 | 1.02 | 3.55 | 3.96 | CIN | 110 | 95 | 82 | 21.0% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 8.8% | 13.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.2 | 3.11 | 5.8 | 1.37 | 0.89 | 2.98 | 3.93 | LOS | 126 | 119 | 116 | 21.3% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 5.2 | 4.28 | 5.89 | 1.2 | 1.05 | 4.48 | 2.67 | CHC | 85 | 89 | 68 | 20.7% | 7.9% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3 | 4.37 | 5.59 | 1.01 | 1.04 | 4.45 | 4.57 | KAN | 102 | 95 | 66 | 16.5% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 7.5% | 13.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -5.1 | 4 | 5.95 | 0.83 | 0.91 | 4.21 | 4.89 | PIT | 102 | 97 | 149 | 19.9% | 8.6% | 21.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.1 | 3.84 | 5.78 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 4.08 | 2.66 | CHW | 73 | 85 | 106 | 23.5% | 7.7% | 21.3% | 10.5% | 11.1% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 3.7 | 5.44 | 6.87 | 1.86 | 1.08 | 5.02 | 5.31 | ANA | 88 | 95 | 100 | 14.0% | 8.9% | 20.6% | 13.3% | 5.2% |
Andrew Cashner had the wheels fall off in June. His K-BB% dropped to 9.1%, his BABIP shot up to .359, and he only stranded half his runners. His batted ball rates didn’t change much, but luckily we have the new contact authority stats to tell us that his hard contact shot up about 7 points, while his weak contact dropped the same for a 22.7 Hard-Soft% last month. Even more disturbing is that his K rate has been just 18.7% over his last seven starts and only 13.2% since his 12 strikeout start on June 1st, but he is coming off his best start in a month, striking out six of 27 Arizona batters, while allowing only two runs in seven innings. The Cardinals hit RHP well at home, but have a 25.5 K% with a 4.7 HR/FB over the last week.
Anibal Sanchez has combined a solid 15.3 K-BB% with a 4.63 ERA this season due to a 15.9 HR/FB. He’ll go a few starts without a HR and then get lit up like he has for five over his last two starts. The good news is that he’s struck out at least seven in six of his last nine starts and everything else seems to be intact, though he’s allowing a few more fly balls this season, which isn’t a good thing when your HR rate spikes too. Now, the Jays lean right handed and hammer lefties, but they can hit RHP hard too (13.6 HR/FB) and have just a 13.0 K% with a 19.1 HR/FB over the last week. It would seem a benefit to him that this game is being played in Detroit, but that’s where he’s allowed 11 of his 18 HRs this year.
Charlie Morton has had two really rough starts out of seven that have pushed his ERA over four. He also allowed 10 hits and four runs in his last start, but tied a season high with six strikeouts. He’s generally been a weak ground ball machine (-3.8 Hard-Soft% for the season), but has been more neutral over his last two starts. He has just a 4.8 HR/FB at home since last year and has allowed one in four starts this year. Cleveland may push his walk rate and pitch count up, but are a positive park adjusted matchup here.
Chase Anderson has seen a massive adjustment to his HR rate over his last three starts. He allowed three in Colorado, but then another three in San Diego with a total of four walks and four strikeouts. He went from a 3.9 HR/FB to a 9.6 HR/FB. The Rockies have an 18.6 K-BB% on the road and -1.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week, but still a 12.5 HR/FB away from home with a 12.9 Hard-Soft%.
Chris Archer allowed three HRs and tied a season high with five ERs in his last outing, but also struck out 10 of 24 Red Sox, a team that doesn’t often strike out. His K rate is still riding above 30% for the season. He’s been lucky to avoid the toughest park of the AL East thus far, but not tonight. The Yankees now have the top home offense in the majors with a 16.6 HR/FB and not a ton of strikeouts. They represent one of the worst matchup of the evening.
Clayton Kershaw has struck out at least nine in each of his last five starts and the top ERA estimators in the main chart with the top expected strikeout and K-BB rates tonight. Add in the worst road team with the coldest offense over the last week and you have the top park adjusted matchup of the night as well. Kershaw has a 32.4 K-BB% at home since last season. The Mets do have a 14.2 HR/FB vs LHP, but just a 3.6 HR/FB over the last week. This could get ugly, or beautiful, depending on your perspective.
Dan Straily makes both his Houston and 2015 debut. He’s posted a just below average K% with too many walks and HRs in the past, but has cut down on the walks with a 16.4 K-BB% at AAA this season. Boston has just a 16.4 K% at home and is a tough park adjusted matchup here.
Drew Hutchison has a 4.16 road xFIP since last year and has allowed fewer than three ERs in just two of eight road starts this year. The Tigers are one of the worst park adjusted matchups tonight and have a 21.9 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Garrett Richards has a below average 9.6 K-BB% that’s well below last year’s rate, though we’re more concerned about the walks than strikeouts as you’ll see later. He’s gone at least seven innings with two ERs or less in three of his last four starts and maintain strong contact management skills with a no difference between his Hard and Soft hit rates this year. The Rangers are a neutral matchup that park adjusts to a tough one in Texas with a lineup full of tough LH bats when healthy. They’ve been so over the last week in which they have a 20.9 HR/FB.
J.A. Happ has a perfectly league average 12.5 K-BB% this season, but has struggled in each of his last four starts. He’s got a fine park adjusted matchup, but has struggled with walks in the past and the A’s are a low strikeout, high walk team that could crush any upside tonight.
Jeremy Guthrie usually doesn’t get a write up, but has allowed two ERs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts, but with a just an 8.0 K-BB% over that span. He’s at home tonight against the 2nd worst home offense (7.6 HR/FB), who struggle against RHP as well, but have a 24.2 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Jesse Chavez has allowed eight runs, striking out just seven of 51 batters over his last 10.2 innings. He’s had essentially a league average K-BB% at home since the start of last season, but with a 4.8 HR/FB and has a great park adjusted matchup against an offense that has a 14.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but never seems to get the positive results from it. They are near the bottom of the league in offense both on the road and vs RHP. Perhaps it’s all the tough parks they spend most of their season in.
Julio Teheran has not had a good season by any measurement with declines in both his skill based metrics and the stuff he less control over, but he gets the 3rd worst road offense and worst vs RHP at home, giving him one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Justin Masterson had a strong start against Tampa Bay after missing a month and a half and though the velocity is still in the mid 80’s, he might be the type of pitcher that could frustrate the right handed power bats of the Astros as they pound the ball in to the ground, while the park in Boston isn’t exactly friendly to LH power. He might have just a 6.0 K-BB% this season, but his contact authority sits at mere 2.3 Hard-Soft%. The Astros strike out 24.4% of the time on the road and 26.0% vs RHP, but will take walks and have a 16.2 HR/FB vs RHP, so it’s not like there is no risk as they still represent one of the tougher park adjusted matchups tonight.
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed six HRs against Detroit and Houston in his last two starts, but has maintained an above average strikeout rate (eleven of 52 batters). You might be inclined to remain concerned about his HR rate at home tonight and it’s a legitimate concern, but he faces a Tampa Bay team that has struggled on the road and vs RHP. They have been the 2nd worst offense in the majors over the last week (55 wRC+, 30.3 K%) and strike out 22.0% vs righties.
Michael Wacha has seen a significant boost to his strikeouts that really started in May, but has alternated good and bad results over his last six starts with the higher strikeout totals (seven or more) all coming in the three where he allowed at least four ERs and exactly five in each of the three where he allowed two ERs or less. If you’re looking at it from a positive angle, he’s accumulating fantasy points either way. He has a solid matchup tonight against a team that strikes out 22% of the time both on the road and vs RHP in a park that kills power. Wacha has just a 5.6 HR/FB at home since last season.
Mike Fiers has a very solid 15.6 K-BB%, but a 20.0 Hard-Soft% that has surprisingly only led to a 10.0 HR/FB in a terrible home park. The reason for that he’s allowed just one HR on the road in seven starts this year. Most of those have been parks that suppress power. He’s pitching in another tough park for power tonight, though it plays more neutral for overall run factor making the overall matchup more neutral. The Reds have a 14.4 HR/FB at home and strike out less than league average, so this particular matchup may not favor him as much as some of the numbers suggest.
Noah Syndergaard enters the lion’s den to take on the 2nd best home offense (14.6 HR/FB) and best against RHP (15.9 HR/FB). A month ago, we wouldn’t have touched a RHP in Dodger Stadium, but they now park adjust to a slightly unfavorable matchup rather than a deadly one at home. Syndergaard has really driving up his SwStr rate over the last month to give him a solid strikeout base that we can believe in now with at least a 9% mark in each of his last five starts, though the overall K% has varied. The overall results have varied as well, but he’s coming off a strong one against Cincinnati with a career high eight innings, but just 89 pitches thrown.
Ubaldo Jimenez may be the pitcher I’ve most come around on with the available contact authority stats now. He has just a 6.1 Hard-Soft% this season and 7.5 Hard-Soft% over the last two calendar years. He also has the lowest walk rate (7.4%) of his career this year and has now at least brought his SwStr rate closer in line with his K rate. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start this year. The White Sox are the worst home offense in the majors though the park adjusts them up slightly. They also have just a 5.4 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, which plays into his strength.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Tommy Milone (.264 BABIP – 83.0 LOB% – 11.9 HR/FB) – He might be in the perfect park for his style, but has even less upside than usual against the Kansas City offense.
Michael Lorenzen (_.256 BABIP – 85.7 LOB% – 16.1 HR/FB) – The Reds have been good at suppressing BABIP for years and the HR rate actually runs extreme in the opposite direction, but the strand rate kind of trumps everything here and is something he probably has the least control over. That’s where I’d expect the biggest adjustment.
Alex Chi Chi Gonzalez (.205 BABIP – 82.6 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Trevor Bauer is just way too volatile at a not cheap enough price, facing the top overall offense for the last week. He and Milone are essentially my cutoffs today with Happ bridging the gap to those who barely got the full write up treatment.
Adam Morgan – His AAA numbers are terrible and he hasn’t even been listed on a Phillies prospect list by Fangraphs since 2013.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 25.0% | 8.3% | Road | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% | ||
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.7% | 6.5% | Road | 15.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 21.9% | 6.6% | Home | 21.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 17.8% | 7.7% | Home | 17.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 2.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.7% | 7.1% | Home | 19.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 23.4% | 7.2% | Road | 23.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 5.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 30.6% | 4.7% | Home | 35.1% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 3.7% |
| Dan Straily | Astros | 20.0% | 10.4% | Road | 18.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 22.6% | 7.3% | Road | 20.2% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.8% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 20.9% | 8.0% | Road | 23.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 23.1% | 8.7% | Home | 23.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 19.3% | 7.6% | Road | 17.4% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 18.2% | 7.3% | Road | 19.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.1% | 5.9% | Home | 21.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.9% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 13.5% | 5.6% | Home | 11.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 4.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.0% | 7.6% | Home | 20.4% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 7.8% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 14.9% | 7.3% | Home | 16.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 3.9% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 20.9% | 6.7% | Home | 21.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
| Justin Masterson | Red Sox | 20.2% | 11.1% | Home | 19.5% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.0% | 6.6% | Road | 11.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 2.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 25.9% | 4.2% | Home | 26.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 14.8% | 12.5% | Home | 16.1% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 8.9% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.4% | 6.9% | Home | 19.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 25.7% | 7.6% | Road | 25.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 24.0% | 4.5% | Road | 25.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 18.0% | 8.8% | Road | 17.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 16.1% | 7.1% | Road | 15.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 9.8% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 22.2% | 9.7% | Road | 22.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 10.2% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.6% | 10.5% | Road | 23.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 5.8% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 8.3% | 10.1% | Home | 6.1% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 9.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 18.0% | 8.3% | LH | 22.7% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.3% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.9% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.8% | 7.3% | RH | 19.5% | 8.2% | L7Days | 13.0% | 9.1% |
| Indians | Road | 17.7% | 8.3% | RH | 19.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 5.5% | RH | 19.5% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.2% | 8.5% | RH | 18.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.7% | 9.0% |
| Mets | Road | 23.4% | 5.9% | LH | 23.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.3% | 7.9% | RH | 16.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.8% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.0% | 7.3% | RH | 19.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.2% | 3.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.4% | 8.4% | RH | 20.1% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.9% | 6.4% |
| Giants | Road | 18.4% | 7.1% | LH | 19.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 4.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.5% | 7.9% | LH | 17.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 17.5% | 7.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.4% | 7.6% | RH | 20.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 27.3% | 8.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.0% | 5.9% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Road | 21.6% | 7.0% | RH | 20.1% | 6.4% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.4% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.8% | 6.8% | LH | 20.8% | 5.0% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.4% | 5.7% | RH | 18.8% | 5.7% | L7Days | 17.8% | 5.1% |
| Astros | Road | 24.4% | 7.3% | RH | 26.0% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 20.8% | 8.3% | RH | 19.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.6% |
| Rays | Road | 20.6% | 7.1% | RH | 22.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.3% | 4.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.1% | 5.4% | RH | 20.6% | 5.9% | L7Days | 15.3% | 6.3% |
| Padres | Road | 22.0% | 7.6% | RH | 22.2% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Home | 18.5% | 8.9% | RH | 18.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.7% | 7.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.4% | 8.9% | RH | 19.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 10.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.8% | 9.3% | RH | 24.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Home | 14.4% | 6.4% | LH | 15.4% | 5.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.6% | 7.2% | RH | 19.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 7.1% | RH | 19.4% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.8% | 3.8% |
| Angels | Road | 19.1% | 7.5% | RH | 19.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | Phillies | 26.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | Road | L14 Days | 26.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% | |||
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.6% | 8.8% | 7.4% | Road | 21.1% | 12.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 20.0% | 8.2% | 10.3% | Home | 20.1% | 8.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 45.5% | 18.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 20.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | Home | 20.5% | 4.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | Home | 21.9% | 11.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 33.3% | 5.6% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.0% | 9.0% | 11.3% | Road | 21.6% | 6.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 20.0% | 15.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 21.9% | 8.5% | 11.3% | Home | 21.0% | 12.1% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 20.0% | 30.0% |
| Dan Straily | Astros | 17.7% | 11.0% | 15.4% | Road | 10.5% | 8.3% | 12.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | Road | 21.1% | 10.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 18.7% | 7.5% | 10.2% | Road | 16.8% | 7.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 21.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% | Home | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Mariners | 20.7% | 10.2% | 9.7% | Road | 21.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | Road | 19.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 23.3% | 11.0% | 7.8% | Home | 21.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 22.7% | 9.7% | 8.5% | Home | 21.7% | 7.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 32.2% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | Home | 25.1% | 4.8% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.9% | 12.2% | 8.2% | Home | 18.9% | 11.8% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.3% | 9.7% | 11.7% | Home | 20.0% | 8.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Justin Masterson | Red Sox | 20.3% | 12.7% | 8.7% | Home | 21.4% | 13.5% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.9% | 13.1% | 11.2% | Road | 19.8% | 11.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.5% | 15.3% | 10.4% | Home | 22.4% | 17.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 35.3% | 11.8% |
| Michael Lorenzen | Reds | 25.7% | 16.1% | 8.1% | Home | 26.3% | 18.8% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.7% | 6.2% | 9.9% | Home | 21.2% | 5.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 21.0% | 9.3% | 14.2% | Road | 20.1% | 3.9% | 15.8% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 20.4% | 7.8% | 13.7% | Road | 21.7% | 10.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | 19.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | Road | 17.1% | 11.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Tommy Milone | Twins | 21.3% | 10.7% | 14.2% | Road | 22.1% | 12.6% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 23.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | 21.6% | 8.8% | 9.5% | Road | 20.5% | 8.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | Road | 23.3% | 11.6% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 20.3% | 8.1% | 2.7% | Home | 20.9% | 13.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Home | 20.7% | 7.5% | 10.8% | LH | 21.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 23.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | RH | 22.7% | 9.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 26.6% | 4.7% | 7.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.6% | 11.4% | 14.1% | RH | 19.0% | 13.6% | 13.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 19.1% | 14.7% |
| Indians | Road | 20.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | RH | 20.7% | 10.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 21.0% | 12.5% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 14.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.7% | 10.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.2% | 16.6% | 9.1% | RH | 21.3% | 13.6% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.5% | 6.3% |
| Mets | Road | 23.7% | 9.1% | 11.3% | LH | 21.0% | 14.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 3.6% | 10.7% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.9% | 11.2% | 10.6% | RH | 20.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 11.7% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.0% | 8.8% | 10.7% | RH | 21.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 10.9% | 12.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.9% | 11.2% | 8.2% | RH | 17.9% | 11.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.5% | 20.9% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 23.9% | 12.3% | 6.3% | LH | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.1% | 6.5% | 10.3% | LH | 18.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 17.5% | 6.5% | 12.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 11.6% | 8.3% | RH | 21.2% | 12.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.7% | 10.0% | 17.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.9% | 13.9% | 8.1% | RH | 20.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 16.1% | 12.9% |
| Twins | Road | 19.0% | 7.6% | 12.2% | RH | 20.3% | 8.9% | 12.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 13.8% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 17.2% | 11.7% | 8.1% | RH | 19.6% | 10.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 15.0% | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.9% | 10.7% | 8.6% | LH | 22.2% | 11.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 15.3% | 9.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.0% | 5.2% | 10.2% | RH | 22.3% | 6.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Road | 23.3% | 12.7% | 10.8% | RH | 20.9% | 16.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 14.8% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 11.5% | 8.1% | RH | 20.9% | 10.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.8% | 14.8% | 11.5% |
| Rays | Road | 21.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | RH | 21.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.9% | 4.4% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | RH | 21.0% | 9.4% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.7% | 1.4% |
| Padres | Road | 20.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | RH | 19.4% | 10.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.1% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Home | 23.0% | 14.4% | 9.0% | RH | 21.1% | 11.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 5.6% | 12.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 23.9% | 14.6% | 8.1% | RH | 21.4% | 15.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 13.9% | 11.7% | 5.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.2% | 9.5% | 12.8% | RH | 20.1% | 11.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 15.7% | 3.2% | 9.5% |
| Royals | Home | 21.0% | 6.4% | 10.5% | LH | 23.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 8.1% | 11.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.9% | 10.2% | 5.3% | RH | 21.5% | 9.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.2% | 4.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.8% | 10.8% | 10.8% | RH | 21.3% | 9.9% | 11.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 21.9% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.4% | 10.7% | 7.0% | RH | 20.1% | 11.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.95 | 25.0% | 12.8% | 1.95 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 21.3% | 9.0% | 2.37 | 13.2% | 6.9% | 1.91 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.24 | 18.6% | 8.0% | 2.33 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 13.1% | 6.4% | 2.05 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 2.07 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 14.8% | 7.2% | 2.06 | 11.3% | 7.1% | 1.59 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 31.2% | 13.2% | 2.36 | 32.1% | 15.0% | 2.14 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 32.9% | 15.6% | 2.11 | 38.2% | 18.3% | 2.09 |
| Dan Straily | HOU | ||||||
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 20.9% | 9.3% | 2.25 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 2.40 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 18.7% | 11.1% | 1.68 | 17.5% | 12.2% | 1.43 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.3% | 8.5% | 2.39 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.86 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 18.6% | 7.5% | 2.48 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.38 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 18.4% | 6.3% | 2.92 | |||
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 26.0% | 11.2% | 2.32 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 2.25 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 11.8% | 6.4% | 1.84 | 16.7% | 7.6% | 2.20 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 21.2% | 9.3% | 2.28 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.33 |
| John Danks | CHW | 15.5% | 8.4% | 1.85 | 11.4% | 7.5% | 1.52 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 18.3% | 10.2% | 1.79 | 18.4% | 10.6% | 1.74 |
| Justin Masterson | BOS | 16.2% | 6.6% | 2.45 | 30.0% | 11.9% | 2.52 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.4% | 6.0% | 1.90 | 12.3% | 7.1% | 1.73 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 25.6% | 12.2% | 2.10 | 24.8% | 13.7% | 1.81 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 14.8% | 7.6% | 1.95 | 16.3% | 6.0% | 2.72 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 19.1% | 9.7% | 1.97 | 25.0% | 12.2% | 2.05 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 24.2% | 9.0% | 2.69 | 19.2% | 7.6% | 2.53 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 24.0% | 10.1% | 2.38 | 25.8% | 12.9% | 2.00 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.5% | 6.7% | 2.61 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.45 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 15.6% | 7.5% | 2.08 | 17.6% | 8.3% | 2.12 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 23.4% | 10.2% | 2.29 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 1.96 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 24.3% | 8.9% | 2.73 | 26.4% | 9.6% | 2.75 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 8.3% | 6.0% | 1.38 | 8.3% | 6.6% | 1.26 |
Chase Anderson – While his K% over the last month is less concerning with no drop in SwStr%, his season K% and SwStr% are both far below last year’s, making him almost unusable without any upside.
Garrett Richards has seen a 5.5 point drop in his K%, but a slight increase in his SwStr%, which bodes well for his future. To cap that, Chris Iannetta is a +10.4 RAA framer this year, while Carlos Perez (+0.5 RAA) is merely average in nearly as much work. Perhaps his control issues have a part to play here if he’s throwing four balls too often before three strikes, though his Zone% and Swing% are both up from last season along with his F-Strike%.
Julio Teheran has seen just a slight drop in his SwStr from 10.9% to 10.2%, but a 2.7 point drop in his K% that’s dropped him below average. Considering his K/SwStr was barely around the 2.0 mark last year and that his two framers this season are a combined -8.9 RAA at nearly equal fault, I’m not sure we can expect too much of an improvement in his K%, but hopefully he can get back to league average as it’s a shame to waste so many swings and misses.
Michael Wacha has just a 7.1 HR/FB this season that’s normal on the road and great at home. St Louis kills power, so this is not something I see a big future adjustment in and would lean more towards his FIP. The rise in strikeouts and swinging strikes is a great sign and the BABIP isn’t far enough from what his team allows that I’d feel need to adjust it with otherwise fine indicators.
Ubaldo Jimenez is now living on the edge of an acceptable K/SwStr range and I expected to see that the Orioles have a solid framing corps via StatCorner, but they are essentially a break even bunch, though Caleb Joseph (+3.9 RAA) has shown the most skills this season. He does have a double digit SwStr% in each of his last three starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 1.59 | 3.84 | 2.25 | 4 | 2.41 | 4.32 | 2.73 | 1.59 | 3.87 | 2.28 | 4 | 2.41 | 4.32 | 2.73 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.22 | 3.64 | -0.58 | 3.6 | -0.62 | 3.99 | -0.23 | 6.04 | 5.06 | -0.98 | 4.9 | -1.14 | 4.85 | -1.19 |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 4.63 | 3.66 | -0.97 | 3.64 | -0.99 | 4.36 | -0.27 | 2.63 | 3.83 | 1.2 | 3.67 | 1.04 | 4.52 | 1.89 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.28 | 3.5 | -0.78 | 3.58 | -0.7 | 3.78 | -0.5 | 5.54 | 4.03 | -1.51 | 3.95 | -1.59 | 3.93 | -1.61 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.66 | 4.31 | 0.65 | 4.21 | 0.55 | 4.05 | 0.39 | 4.45 | 4.81 | 0.36 | 4.67 | 0.22 | 6.05 | 1.6 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.31 | 2.47 | 0.16 | 2.39 | 0.08 | 2.46 | 0.15 | 2.63 | 2.19 | -0.44 | 2.12 | -0.51 | 2.55 | -0.08 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 3.2 | 2.27 | -0.93 | 2.09 | -1.11 | 2.59 | -0.61 | 2.08 | 1.91 | -0.17 | 1.95 | -0.13 | 2.48 | 0.4 |
| Dan Straily | HOU | ||||||||||||||
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 4.99 | 3.76 | -1.23 | 3.78 | -1.21 | 3.77 | -1.22 | 4.32 | 3.83 | -0.49 | 4.04 | -0.28 | 3.8 | -0.52 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.54 | 4.08 | 0.54 | 4.06 | 0.52 | 3.81 | 0.27 | 4.13 | 3.91 | -0.22 | 3.74 | -0.39 | 3.93 | -0.2 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.41 | 3.64 | -0.77 | 3.48 | -0.93 | 3.16 | -1.25 | 3.57 | 4.4 | 0.83 | 4.33 | 0.76 | 3.52 | -0.05 |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 3.89 | 3.98 | 0.09 | 3.88 | -0.01 | 3.54 | -0.35 | 4.28 | 3.92 | -0.36 | 3.85 | -0.43 | 3.27 | -1.01 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 9.39 | 4.46 | -4.93 | 4.65 | -4.74 | 4.52 | -4.87 | |||||||
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.92 | 2.99 | 0.07 | 3.08 | 0.16 | 2.9 | -0.02 | 3.14 | 3.62 | 0.48 | 3.9 | 0.76 | 3.5 | 0.36 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.68 | 4.95 | -0.73 | 4.86 | -0.82 | 4.92 | -0.76 | 4.24 | 4.17 | -0.07 | 4.06 | -0.18 | 3.44 | -0.8 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 3.02 | 3.67 | 0.65 | 3.62 | 0.6 | 2.89 | -0.13 | 4.85 | 3.71 | -1.14 | 3.56 | -1.29 | 3.45 | -1.4 |
| John Danks | CHW | 5.38 | 4.48 | -0.9 | 4.53 | -0.85 | 4.88 | -0.5 | 6.85 | 4.63 | -2.22 | 4.49 | -2.36 | 5.46 | -1.39 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.94 | 4.25 | -0.69 | 4.19 | -0.75 | 4.68 | -0.26 | 5.08 | 3.78 | -1.3 | 3.65 | -1.43 | 3.17 | -1.91 |
| Justin Masterson | BOS | 5.58 | 4.52 | -1.06 | 4.7 | -0.88 | 4.74 | -0.84 | 0 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 2.68 | 2.68 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 6.07 | 5.06 | -1.01 | 5.08 | -0.99 | 6.28 | 0.21 | 5.04 | 4.88 | -0.16 | 4.9 | -0.14 | 6.25 | 1.21 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.88 | 3.04 | -0.84 | 3.07 | -0.81 | 4.04 | 0.16 | 4.35 | 2.83 | -1.52 | 2.81 | -1.54 | 4.76 | 0.41 |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 3.38 | 5.24 | 1.86 | 4.94 | 1.56 | 5.64 | 2.26 | 3.72 | 4.83 | 1.11 | 4.73 | 1.01 | 5.43 | 1.71 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.77 | 3.73 | 0.96 | 3.57 | 0.8 | 3.14 | 0.37 | 3.77 | 2.91 | -0.86 | 2.59 | -1.18 | 1.92 | -1.85 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 4.14 | 3.65 | -0.49 | 3.8 | -0.34 | 3.68 | -0.46 | 4.3 | 4.54 | 0.24 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 4.21 | -0.09 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.59 | 3.11 | -0.48 | 3.11 | -0.48 | 2.74 | -0.85 | 5.14 | 2.77 | -2.37 | 2.66 | -2.48 | 2.9 | -2.24 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.66 | 4.33 | 0.67 | 4.25 | 0.59 | 4.54 | 0.88 | 2.93 | 3.08 | 0.15 | 3.03 | 0.1 | 4.31 | 1.38 |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 3.19 | 4.62 | 1.43 | 4.53 | 1.34 | 4.72 | 1.53 | 2.03 | 4.03 | 2 | 3.92 | 1.89 | 3.6 | 1.57 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.96 | 4.09 | 0.13 | 4.28 | 0.32 | 3.98 | 0.02 | 6.26 | 4.92 | -1.34 | 5.23 | -1.03 | 5.61 | -0.65 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.09 | 3.33 | 0.24 | 3.18 | 0.09 | 3.12 | 0.03 | 3.03 | 3.36 | 0.33 | 3.23 | 0.2 | 2.88 | -0.15 |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 2.59 | 5.44 | 2.85 | 5.02 | 2.43 | 4.72 | 2.13 | 3 | 5.29 | 2.29 | 4.91 | 1.91 | 4.67 | 1.67 |
Andrew Cashner – As mentioned above, he had a .359 BABIP and stranded just 50.6% of his runners in June and while the batted ball ratios didn’t change, the quality of the contact did with a sharp drop in strikeouts. This is very concerning, but his velocity is steady. Batters slugged .607 against his slider and .800 against his change, pitches he was throwing a combined 28% of the time last month.
Anibal Sanchez – We’ve covered the 15.9 HR/FB, but in June he stranded 90.6% of his runners and had just a .196 BABIP to see his ERA gap bounce back entirely the other way, yet still be well above them for the year. This actually brought his season LOB up to a respectable 70.1%, but drove his BABIP down to .267, which might be a little too low, but he has solid indicators and a better defense this year, so maybe he beats his .296 career mark by a few points.
Charlie Morton has a 66.3 LOB% that has dropped to 63.8% over the last month.
Drew Hutchison has some strong indicators in his BABIP with a solid team defense, but a 25.2 LD% that needs to regress before he can improve much.
Jeremy Guthrie – Fly ball pitchers tend to do well in the large park in Kansas City with a great outfield defense and he looks like an exception this year, but hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in any of five home starts since the middle of May. His .319 BABIP is a bit high in correlation to both his career .283 and team’s allowed rates, but his 26.6 LD% is a career high despite a 28.2 Hard% below his career rate. His IFFB and Z-Contact are slightly below average, so it really falls to getting that LD rate back to normal, which could push his 68.6 LOB% up a bit too, but as noted, he’s been much better in recent starts.
Masahiro Tanaka – Six HRs in two starts will drive up your ERA and FIP as he now has a 17.9 HR/FB that trumps his .268 BABIP. He has nearly average indicators in the BABIP chart below just a 17.9 LD%, but actually a high one last year (24.4%) and also a 30.3 Hard% that doesn’t bode all that well for his HR or LD rates and we know the park won’t help him. While I’d look for a bit of regression in both areas, maybe his FIP is closer to the truth here.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Morgan | PHI | 0.318 | 0.333 | 0.015 | 12.5% | 83.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.309 | 0.331 | 0.022 | 9.6% | 88.6% |
| Anibal Sanchez | DET | 0.295 | 0.267 | -0.028 | 11.5% | 84.7% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.301 | 0.303 | 0.002 | 13.6% | 93.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.293 | 0.278 | -0.015 | 8.5% | 88.8% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.277 | 0.272 | -0.005 | 7.7% | 83.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.299 | 0.304 | 0.005 | 14.1% | 77.3% |
| Dan Straily | HOU | 0.276 | ||||
| Drew Hutchison | TOR | 0.284 | 0.336 | 0.052 | 14.0% | 85.3% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.274 | 0.266 | -0.008 | 11.3% | 87.4% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.314 | 0.354 | 0.04 | 2.1% | 86.8% |
| J.A. Happ | SEA | 0.282 | 0.319 | 0.037 | 13.7% | 88.7% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.423 | 0.136 | 0.0% | 97.6% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.290 | 0.266 | -0.024 | 4.2% | 87.2% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.274 | 0.319 | 0.045 | 8.3% | 88.2% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.281 | 0.295 | 0.014 | 14.0% | 84.1% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.325 | 0.316 | -0.009 | 10.9% | 84.9% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.299 | 0.310 | 0.011 | 13.4% | 86.1% |
| Justin Masterson | BOS | 0.306 | 0.325 | 0.019 | 5.6% | 92.4% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.311 | 0.275 | -0.036 | 9.2% | 90.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.305 | 0.268 | -0.037 | 10.7% | 86.6% |
| Michael Lorenzen | CIN | 0.277 | 0.256 | -0.021 | 8.1% | 86.5% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.291 | 0.269 | -0.022 | 12.9% | 85.0% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 0.308 | 0.347 | 0.039 | 15.0% | 85.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.289 | 0.329 | 0.04 | 13.7% | 88.5% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.295 | 0.265 | -0.03 | 8.5% | 89.2% |
| Tommy Milone | MIN | 0.299 | 0.264 | -0.035 | 16.4% | 89.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.309 | 0.274 | -0.035 | 13.4% | 87.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.284 | 0.308 | 0.024 | 13.0% | 87.6% |
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.283 | 0.205 | -0.078 | 2.7% | 88.7% |
J.A. Happ hasn’t seen the results of his BABIP hurt his ERA too bad as it’s not much worse than league average, but far from what his defense allows. He has a strong IFFB% as a neutral batted ball pitcher with a normal Z-Contact rate, but a 24.2 LD% is far higher than his career rate with a 26.2 Hard% and well below his career average. Maybe the thick Seattle air has helped him. I might expect his LD rate to trend to his career rate with improvement in his BABIP towards his .291 career rate, potentially improving his ERA.
Mike Fiers has a .347 BABIP that hasn’t really hurt his 73.5 LOB% too much and therefore not created a big gap between his ERA and estimators. It’s 123 points higher than his 2014 BABP that screamed regression, but not this complete about face. His 21.8 LD% is just two points higher than last year with an even more elite IFFB% and fine Z-Contact%, so it doesn’t make sense from that end. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher with a Hard contact rate that’s jumped 10 points, so that’s probably the issue.
Noah Syndergaard has a .329 BABIP and .375 BABIP in June (63.2 LOB%) despite some solid indicators and a 20.4 LD% with a great 1.3 Hard-Soft% on the season. I’ve personally watched most of his starts and seen him BABIP’d a few times, which is why I can confidently say for one of the few times that he’s run into some bad luck and pitched well for the most part.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Continuing with the format created Wednesday, we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One and Two
Clayton Kershaw (1) owns the top two tiers tonight just to show you how far above the rest of the group he is in every way. When you can combine your top projected strikeout rate by a decent margin with the least amount of risk and potentially best park adjusted matchup of the night, I don’t see how you could even consider going in another direction in cash games/double ups. This is essentially the biggest gap between a top pitcher and everybody else I’ve seen this season.
Value Tier Three – It’s an overall low value day behind Kershaw, but you have to pick a second and even third pitcher on most sites. These guys are all very close in value.
Justin Masterson – There is no doubt some major risk here and I’m not entirely basing this off one good start, but he seems the type of pitcher that could give the Astros trouble even with diminished velocity. He’s still good for lots of ground balls and weak contact against RH bats and the park should hold the lefties. The Astros are also now without their top duel threat in Springer. The low price tag almost makes him a dumpster diving special, who I think has more than a reasonable shot at a strong return, but with a wide range of potential outcomes tonight.
Noah Syndergaard (3t) is a high upside play in a risky spot tonight, but that’s really most of what you have behind Kershaw, a large group of wide range of outcome guys. His results and even K rate has roller coastered from start to start, but his SwStr% has steadied itself over the last five starts and the Dodgers are no longer a team you must avoid at home. They’re still good, but it is a pitcher’s park. A moderately high-ish price tag on most sites may increase the risk side somewhat.
Masahiro Tanaka (2) – You know what the risk is here. He’s allowed six HRs over his last two starts and has had an issue with HRs since debuting in the majors. He still misses bats though, and this is one of the better matchups he can have in Yankee Stadium though as the Rays don’t scream left-handed power and will strike out. He has my second highest projected K and K-BB rates behind Kershaw tonight.
Ubaldo Jimenez (6t) pairs a main strength with a main weakness of the White Sox and that’s contact authority. It’s a tough park, but a very weak home offense resides in it. The price tag is smack in the middle of the board with a strikeout rate potentially above league average here.
Julio Teheran (6t) gets the Phillies and that’s essentially it. He’s not particularly cheap and hasn’t pitched well this year, but the Phillies can make any pitcher look like a star and are exactly who a fly ball pitcher wants to face in a big park.
Mike Fiers (6t) has some upside in the strikeout rate and has kept the ball in the park on the road despite a high hard contact rate. The problem is that all his road starts have come in power suppressing parks, which this is not and the Reds do possess some power that plays up at home. A reasonable middle of the board cost gives you some reason to gamble on the upside though.
Charlie Morton has little upside and potentially even less against a patient Cleveland team, but he pitches in a good park and generates a ton of weak contact against a team that is really not a big threat. There’s some variance in his price tag today, but DraftKings has him really cheap.
Jesse Chavez is coming off two rough starts, but generally pitches well at home and keeps the ball in the park with enough strikeouts to be useful. He faces a Seattle team that hits the ball hard, but often to no avail, representing a strong matchup in a good park at an average price.
Michael Wacha (3t) is perhaps the guy you can make the best argument for pushing up a few spots here, but I have him grouped in with the rest for a couple of reasons. First, the results and strikeouts over the last month have been just wacky if you look at his game log. While the overall growth in his bat missing skills is a major plus and he’s in a good spot at home tonight, the price tag doesn’t leave you much room to wiggle and that’s the second reason I have him among the rest of this group.
Andrew Cashner could really go in the group below or stand out as a 3A tier as he has really struggled for the last month up until his last start. I have to believe history will prevail here, but that also makes me more concerned about his dropping strikeout rate since it’s really only one well above average month over 18% since 2013. Still, he’s in a decent park with a neutral matchup and middling price tag.
Value Tier Four – I feel these guys are basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Anibal Sanchez – This could be a lot of strikeouts and runs.
Chris Archer (5) – He has a high price tag in a rough spot.
Jeremy Guthrie – He has a very low price tag.
Garrett Richards – High price tag with skills lagging behind last year in a below average spot.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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