Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Friday, September 25th
We’re not going to do the traditional opening today due to some technical issues on my end last night (Excel crash) and the daily salary chart not updating until this morning. So we’ll leave out the least important part and get right to the meat today. We have all the pitchers in today’s chart, but won’t be covering the lone afternoon game, which is a shame because we lose two top pitchers.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 1.9 | 4.04 | 5.8 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 3.63 | 1.77 | NYM | 96 | 98 | 97 | 22.1% | 6.0% | 22.1% | 8.7% | 10.8% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | -5.1 | 4.94 | 5. | 0.9 | 0.98 | 5.74 | 4.64 | STL | 101 | 101 | 116 | 20.2% | 11.2% | 20.2% | 8.0% | 11.5% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.1 | 2.72 | 6.24 | 1.77 | 1.04 | 2.85 | 2.13 | KAN | 109 | 103 | 142 | 24.4% | 7.1% | 21.0% | 11.8% | 7.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -0.8 | 3.42 | 5.89 | 2.07 | 0.98 | 3.44 | 3.21 | MIL | 85 | 90 | 80 | 23.2% | 8.0% | 20.0% | 11.2% | 9.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -6.3 | 4.12 | 5.77 | 1.6 | 1.02 | 3.86 | 4.62 | NYY | 104 | 106 | 79 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| Casey Kelly | SDG | -6.9 | 1.93 | 3 | 0.84 | 1.93 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 102 | |||||||
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -5.6 | 3.8 | 5.75 | 1.4 | 1.02 | 3.69 | 3.79 | CHW | 89 | 75 | 65 | 22.1% | 7.2% | 22.1% | 10.1% | 12.2% |
| David Hale | COL | -4.3 | 4.24 | 5.71 | 1.82 | 1.4 | 4.26 | 3.93 | LOS | 102 | 106 | 84 | 18.5% | 8.0% | 22.5% | 14.4% | 7.9% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 7.7 | 4.32 | 6.06 | 1.47 | 1.04 | 4.35 | 5.13 | CLE | 88 | 98 | 117 | 18.4% | 9.2% | 19.5% | 9.8% | 8.9% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 2.4 | 3.67 | 6.42 | 1.84 | 0.91 | 3.57 | 4.35 | SEA | 100 | 101 | 131 | 21.1% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 14.0% | 8.8% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -2.1 | 3.2 | 6.38 | 1.63 | 1.05 | 3.17 | 2.07 | CHC | 98 | 98 | 122 | 24.9% | 7.6% | 21.9% | 10.8% | 9.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 6.2 | 3.74 | 5.7 | 0.76 | 1.05 | 4.07 | 5.19 | TOR | 123 | 112 | 103 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 20.1% | 14.0% | 11.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -4.8 | 4.3 | 6.17 | 0.81 | 1.03 | 4.8 | 3.79 | WAS | 102 | 97 | 99 | 20.3% | 9.4% | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.19 | 6.57 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 3.06 | 2.9 | PIT | 97 | 97 | 139 | 23.4% | 7.1% | 21.1% | 12.0% | 8.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -4.4 | 3.48 | 6.2 | 1.13 | 1.03 | 3.55 | 2.75 | PHI | 82 | 82 | 49 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 22.7% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.6 | 2.42 | 6.18 | 1.38 | 1.01 | 2.31 | 2.36 | ATL | 80 | 85 | 76 | 25.8% | 6.9% | 22.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.5 | 3.94 | 5.72 | 1.13 | 1.07 | 4.04 | 3.74 | BOS | 111 | 97 | 83 | 19.9% | 8.0% | 20.4% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 2.4 | 4.69 | 4.8 | 0.63 | 1.05 | 4.78 | 3.32 | MIN | 79 | 98 | 108 | 21.2% | 6.7% | 17.3% | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.9 | 3.84 | 5.4 | 1.88 | 1.4 | 3.95 | 6.42 | COL | 92 | 92 | 93 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 22.3% | 13.7% | 6.1% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 4.5 | 3.76 | 6.34 | 2 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 6.04 | OAK | 99 | 96 | 94 | 15.5% | 6.8% | 20.9% | 10.9% | 10.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.8 | 4.89 | 5.51 | 1.81 | 1.05 | 4.97 | 4.95 | DET | 104 | 99 | 74 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 21.4% | 10.1% | 8.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.6 | 3.11 | 6.14 | 1.37 | 1.02 | 3.25 | 1.81 | CIN | 98 | 92 | 103 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 21.0% | 16.1% | 6.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -1.7 | 4.42 | 6.44 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 4.17 | 5.61 | TAM | 101 | 96 | 146 | 17.7% | 7.1% | 22.1% | 11.7% | 12.2% |
| Rich Hill | BOS | -1 | 2.34 | 7. | 1.57 | 1.07 | 2.38 | 1.67 | BAL | 87 | 82 | 87 | 30.5% | 7.6% | 17.0% | 9.0% | 16.6% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 2.3 | 4.15 | 5.83 | 1.49 | 0.84 | 4.18 | 5.05 | SDG | 100 | 92 | 121 | 19.7% | 8.1% | 19.9% | 14.2% | 8.0% |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | -0.7 | 4.23 | 6.37 | 2.67 | 1.01 | 3.71 | 4.52 | FLA | 83 | 82 | 76 | 15.8% | 6.4% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 1.6 | 3.77 | 5.99 | 1.16 | 1.01 | 3.69 | 5.37 | TEX | 89 | 92 | 125 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 17.3% | 10.9% | 12.1% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -6.2 | 3.67 | 6.66 | 1.95 | 0.93 | 3.72 | 6.5 | SFO | 100 | 108 | 76 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 22.5% | 11.4% | 5.7% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -3.9 | 3.88 | 5.52 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 4.11 | 5.73 | ANA | 100 | 86 | 75 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 19.8% | 9.7% | 7.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 5 | 4.16 | 5.82 | 1.75 | 1.01 | 3.83 | 4.6 | HOU | 111 | 100 | 137 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 22.4% | 15.2% | 7.6% |
Anthony DeSclafani has been gradually throwing more curveballs (at the expense of his change-up) and throwing them harder in the 2nd half in which he’s seen his ERA and estimators improve significantly. You can see great progress in his September numbers in the monthly charts below. He has just an 11.9 K-BB% for the season, but it’s above 20% since the start of August, though he’s still allowing just a bit more hard contact than you’d like (31%). The Mets, after coming back down to earth offensively over the past few weeks, are a perfectly average opponent here and remain so after just a small upward bump for run environment.
Carlos Carrasco has a rough start in his first one back from injury, but has since struck out 18 of the 45 batters he’s faced and sits with a massive 22.9 K-BB% for the season (4th in the majors) and a very similar mark on the road since last season. If a matchup with the Royals might intimidate you, there are a couple of reasons it shouldn’t. First, he struck out nine of them last week. Second, they clinched their division last night, which probably means they’ll be up partying all night and field the B-team tonight. Although Ned Yost likes to run the same lineup out there every single night it seems, so who knows. If you’re taking season numbers into consideration, they are a hot offense and could be a very difficult one to navigate in this spot. Remember to watch the lineup they put out tonight.
Carlos Martinez snapped a streak of eight straight starts with at least three runs allowed two starts back and has allowed a total of three runs since, while striking out 15 of 56 batters. With his underlying numbers and velocity holding steady the whole while, there was some confidence that he’d come around eventually. He is at nearly double the amount of innings he’s ever thrown in a professional season, so we should be careful, but his 16.1 K-BB% and 5.8 Hard-Soft% are much better than the average pitcher and he’s hit 100 pitches in each of his last two starts. The Brewers are terrible on the road (15.1 K-BB%) and a well below average offense overall, making them a great park adjusted matchup tonight.
C.C. Sabathia may be better with a knee brace. He’s allowed one ER over his last 12.2 innings with 13 strikeouts after a rough first outing back from injury. His 12.7 K-BB% is just average, but actually not much lower than his 13.5% career rate, but he does have a 15.6 K-BB% at home since last season. That does come with a 16.7 HR/FB though. When he’s not allowing bombs, the stuff can still get swings and misses as you can see by his K% and SwStr% over the last month below. He has the pleasure of facing one of the worst offenses vs LHP in baseball tonight (14.1 K-BB%, 7.6 HR/FB, 5.6 Hard-Soft%) in what should be one of the top matchups tonight even with a small upward park adjustment.
Garrett Richards has been inconsistent at best this season and has walked at least three in five of his last six starts, but still shows some promise in his SwStr% and 0.5 Hard-Soft% that his ERA estimators (which match his ERA) don’t catch. His strikeout rate is actually up over the last month along with his walk rate, keeping his 11.3 K-BB% well below last season’s mark (16.7%). Seattle is an average offense, who hit the ball hard (14.3 HR/FB on the road, 15.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), who has been hot. It should be an interesting clash of skill sets with a negative park adjustment leaving this a neutral, if slightly favorable matchup.
Jordan Zimmermann staggered two starts back, but still struck out eight and hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in any of his four other starts over the last month. An increase in strikeouts over this span has finally given him a league average K% for the season. He’s one of the few things that have gone right for the Nationals lately, as they try to stave off elimination tonight. There’s a good chance of that facing an incredibly poor road offense (15.4 K-BB%, 7.9 HR/FB) and maybe the worst vs RHP now. They have been the coldest offense in the majors over the last week and are perhaps the top matchup tonight even with a small upward park bump.
Jose Fernandez was allowed to throw 95 pitches in his last start. That’s good enough for me. He’s struck out 15 of 41 in his latest return from the DL and has a 26.0 K-BB% in nine starts this year. Tonight, he gets another minor league rehab start against Atlanta.
Kevin Gausman probably is what he is right now, and that’s a slightly below average pitcher, but still shows bursts of potential that you must have learned not to count on by now, at least for this season. The park makes it a bit tougher on him, but he does have a 14.7 K-BB% and 4.3 Hard-Soft% that are both better than average. He pitches in a park that suppresses HR power a bit more, but is a very tough run environment overall, featuring an offense that has been very tough inside of it and strikes out well below average.
Noah Syndergaard has had some issues with run prevention recently and some more on the road this season (though his 3.25 road xFIP is fine), but has struck out at least in three of his last four starts. It’s been HRs that have plagued him, allowing 11 of his 17 over his last eight starts. He maintains an elite 20.9 K-BB% in his rookie season along with a 4.7 Hard-Soft% despite the recent barrage of HRs. Velocity and SwStrs are still there, which gives us confidence going forward. As far as innings limits are concerned, It seems that aside from Harvey, the Mets prefer to do that by skipping and spacing out starts rather than shortening them. The Reds are a below average offense vs RHP, but play about neutral overall at home.
Rich Hill has struck out 20 of 53 batters in 14 innings over two starts, while allowing just three ERs. That’s 35-year-old Rich Hill, who had last started a major league game in 2009 and his last start was in Toronto. The first was in Tampa Bay against an offense that generally mashes lefties. He also has a -13.3 Hard-Soft% when he does allow contact. Sure, I’ll bite and that’s because he faces a Baltimore team that is poor on the road (17.0 K-BB%) and vs LHP (17.3 K-BB%). They strike out a lot and are still a favorable matchup even in a positive run environment here.
Ryan Weber arrived with no prospect hype and very little bat-missing ability. What he’s been through three starts can best be called serviceable and he’d probably find himself in one of the lower sections today due to his .192 BABIP (although just a 66.3 LOB%) if he weren’t facing the Marlins. They are the worst home offense in baseball and tied for the worst vs RHP, making them, of course, on of tonight’s top matchups with little adjustment necessary.
Vidal Nuno walked four with just three strikeouts in his last start. That was against the Rangers. He struck out 10 with just two walks in the start before that, which was also against the Rangers. The point is, he’s not a very trustworthy pitcher, but does have some strikeout upside, which he only flashes occasionally. The Angels aren’t bad at home, but well below average vs RHP and a great matchup once you adjust for run environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Scott Kazmir (.262 BABIP – 77.6 LOB% – 9.4 HR/FB) – I’m not even going to get into the low BABIP. His old park was great and his new team is an innovator in shifting, but remember me constantly saying his 7 HR/FB was too low Houston since the trade? It’s now a 9.4 HR/FB. He’s allowed 10 HRs over his last nine starts.
Yovani Gallardo (.292 BABIP – 76.4 LOB% – _8.7 HR/FB) – You could argue that Texas is a better park for pitchers than Milwaukee the last year or two, especially in terms of HR power, and I couldn’t argue the point, but this is still a pitcher with an 11.0 HR/FB even with this year’s mark figured in. His 6.3 K-BB% is not only a career worse, but nearly half his previous career worst.
Jerad Eickhoff (.255 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 8.5 HR/FB)
Sonny Gray (.254 BABIP 76.4 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB) – This is another pitcher we feel more justified in being off the bandwagon for most of the season now. Although, unlike Kazmir, he’s remained in Oakland all season, he’s allowed 11 of his 16 HRs in the 2nd half, while striking out a total of 12 batters in his last four starts (98 batters faced).
Ariel Pena (.245 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 4.8 HR/FB) – He has a 14.1 BB% through 18 innings and no lower than 8.8% at any stop in his minor league career.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake – Take a look at his SwStr (5.8%) and ERA plus estimators over the last month. Oakland doesn’t hit the ball hard, but doesn’t strike out much either. This leaves him with both a low floor and low ceiling tonight.
Casey Kelly is a former 1st round draft pick back in 2008 that missed all of 2013 after starting six major league games in 2012 and has finally made it back to the majors after three years. Nobody knew what to expect from him this year and most of his season was spent with a 7.0 K-BB% at AAA. He could surprise the Diamondbacks as an unknown in a favorable park, but he’s really an unknown entity to us as well with very mediocre numbers this year.
Matt Boyd may have had his best start last time out (6 IP – 2 ER – 1 BB – 6 K), but still allowed two HRs. It’s unfortunate he’s so bad because Minnesota is the 2nd worst road offense in baseball (15.8 K-BB%).
Rubby de la Rosa – We’ll come back and try it again next year because there is cause for optimism in the SwStr%, but he has to find a way to neutralize lefties. That may be less of a problem tonight against a RH heavy San Diego lineup, but he may be tiring after 180 innings this year (most of his career) as can be noticed in a small velocity drop in his last two starts.
Carlos Rodon – What we always hoped for with him is that the walk rate would come down and he’d be able to pitch deeper into games, allowing his strikeout rate to be more useful. Two of those things have started to happen. He’s gone at least six innings with two or fewer ERs in each of his last seven starts and has walked a total of two in each of his last two starts. He still has an 11.4 BB% on the season though and his strikeout rate is now below average over the last month. He’s struck out five or fewer in six of his last nine starts and has just an 11.9 K-BB% for the season. He’s in a tough spot tonight as well.
Jake Odorizzi – Welcome to the jungle mister extreme fly ball pitcher, who had been able to suppress HRs in a favorable park all season, but has seen his HR/FB jump to 17.6% in September.
Edinson Volquez is pitching the night after clinching and has been pretty terrible over the last month.
Davis Hale
Mike Bolsinger has been horrible since being recalled and gets the pleasure of a trip to Colorado.
R.A. Dickey – It’s not that he’s been allowing a ton of runs lately, but he hasn’t struck out more than seven in a start all season and not even that since mid-June. He’s struck out a total of nine of his last 80 batters.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 18.9% | 6.6% | Home | 19.4% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 2.3% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 20.5% | 14.1% | Road | 17.7% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 27.7% | 5.6% | Road | 27.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 8.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 23.6% | 8.6% | Home | 23.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 8.9% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.3% | 11.4% | Road | 22.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 3.3% |
| Casey Kelly | Padres | 27.3% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | ||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 20.2% | 6.2% | Home | 22.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| David Hale | Rockies | 14.5% | 7.7% | Home | 15.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 3.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.5% | 8.7% | Home | 16.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 13.2% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 21.3% | 8.0% | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 13.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.5% | 6.0% | Road | 24.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 23.0% | 7.3% | Road | 21.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 19.3% | 7.3% | Road | 15.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 9.3% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.7% | 5.8% | Home | 25.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 21.2% | 4.0% | Home | 20.1% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 3.8% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 33.1% | 6.2% | Home | 33.1% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 7.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 19.8% | 7.1% | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 10.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 17.3% | 7.0% | Home | 18.1% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 20.6% | 8.6% | Road | 20.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 16.7% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 17.2% | 5.8% | Road | 15.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 11.3% | 7.7% | Road | 9.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 26.4% | 5.5% | Road | 26.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 2.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 16.7% | 7.6% | Home | 19.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 8.8% | 5.3% |
| Rich Hill | Red Sox | 35.3% | 8.2% | Home | 42.9% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 37.7% | 1.9% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 18.0% | 7.6% | Road | 17.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 10.8% |
| Ryan Weber | Braves | 13.0% | 7.3% | Road | 10.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 21.4% | 7.1% | Home | 21.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 20.4% | 7.8% | Home | 19.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 17.4% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 19.9% | 6.8% | Road | 20.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 18.2% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 16.6% | 7.6% | Road | 16.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 8.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 21.1% | 7.5% | RH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.5% |
| Royals | Home | 14.5% | 6.7% | RH | 16.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.2% | 6.1% | RH | 20.9% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | LH | 19.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.7% |
| White Sox | Road | 20.0% | 6.1% | LH | 20.4% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.1% | 10.1% | RH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.8% |
| Indians | Road | 18.9% | 8.2% | RH | 18.7% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.6% | RH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.8% | 9.9% | RH | 23.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 14.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 17.4% | 9.6% | RH | 18.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.3% | 11.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.9% | 9.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 14.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.6% | 7.2% | LH | 22.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 21.3% | 5.9% | RH | 20.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Road | 18.5% | 7.0% | RH | 17.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.5% | 7.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 7.7% | RH | 17.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.4% |
| Twins | Road | 22.9% | 7.1% | LH | 20.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.3% | 9.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.6% | 6.8% | RH | 20.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.6% | 7.5% | RH | 18.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.9% | 7.5% | RH | 20.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Home | 19.3% | 9.0% | RH | 19.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.8% | 7.2% |
| Rays | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | RH | 21.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.7% | LH | 23.2% | 5.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Padres | Home | 22.2% | 6.9% | RH | 21.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.7% | 6.6% | RH | 19.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 4.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.3% | 7.6% | LH | 21.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 7.1% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Home | 19.9% | 7.5% | LH | 18.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Home | 23.9% | 8.7% | RH | 23.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 11.6% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 22.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | Home | 24.3% | 12.5% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Ariel Pena | Brewers | 20.0% | 4.8% | 14.3% | Road | 18.2% | 0.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.2% | 10.4% | 5.2% | Road | 18.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | Home | 21.4% | 10.1% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | 23.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% | Road | 19.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Casey Kelly | Padres | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 21.8% | 17.6% | 9.8% | Home | 23.5% | 16.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| David Hale | Rockies | 19.2% | 12.3% | 7.1% | Home | 20.4% | 12.0% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.8% | 8.2% | 6.4% | Home | 17.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | Home | 18.5% | 7.1% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | Road | 21.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.2% | 8.6% | 9.8% | Road | 22.0% | 12.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | 22.0% | 8.5% | 10.6% | Road | 24.3% | 9.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.0% | 8.8% | 11.4% | Home | 21.2% | 7.5% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.5% | 8.3% | 12.5% | Home | 22.5% | 6.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | 23.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | Home | 22.8% | 6.1% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.7% | 9.5% | 11.2% | Road | 20.0% | 10.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 17.0% | 17.3% | 11.1% | Home | 16.8% | 15.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 19.0% | 11.0% | 4.7% | Road | 20.2% | 9.6% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 21.7% | 13.8% | 6.6% | Road | 21.0% | 14.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | Road | 21.8% | 12.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | 20.5% | 13.8% | 11.4% | Road | 20.9% | 14.5% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.3% | 10.8% | 13.6% | Home | 20.9% | 12.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 9.5% | 19.0% |
| Rich Hill | Red Sox | 18.2% | 7.1% | 28.6% | Home | 12.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 10.0% | 40.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 19.4% | 15.1% | 8.1% | Road | 20.8% | 14.3% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Ryan Weber | Braves | 17.0% | 8.3% | 0.0% | Road | 5.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 19.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | Home | 18.2% | 5.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 8.6% | 16.7% | 27.8% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | Home | 18.6% | 10.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 17.9% | 12.4% | 8.7% | Road | 18.1% | 12.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 21.0% | 10.4% | 6.8% | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 22.5% | 10.9% | 9.8% | RH | 22.1% | 10.9% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | RH | 22.1% | 9.8% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.9% | 15.5% | 8.6% |
| Royals | Home | 20.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | RH | 21.2% | 9.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | RH | 21.2% | 10.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.3% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 14.4% | 12.4% | LH | 19.7% | 11.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 22.9% | 11.6% | 7.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.5% | 12.0% | 8.9% | RH | 21.4% | 10.8% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.1% | 13.6% | 3.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 9.7% | 10.6% | LH | 22.4% | 7.6% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 9.1% | 14.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.6% | 13.3% | 10.6% | RH | 21.8% | 13.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 18.8% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Indians | Road | 20.3% | 10.4% | 10.4% | RH | 21.3% | 9.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 16.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.4% | 14.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.3% | 13.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 25.9% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.0% | 13.8% | 10.5% | RH | 20.3% | 13.1% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.4% | 17.1% | 9.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.9% | 15.5% | 14.2% | RH | 19.7% | 14.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 18.9% | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 13.3% | 8.2% | RH | 20.6% | 13.3% | 8.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.9% | 5.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | LH | 22.2% | 10.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 13.0% | 9.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.8% | 7.9% | 8.2% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 21.3% | 9.8% | 4.9% |
| Braves | Road | 22.3% | 7.9% | 8.6% | RH | 21.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.8% | 4.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.0% | 11.6% | 8.5% | RH | 20.5% | 10.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Road | 19.3% | 9.2% | 11.1% | LH | 19.5% | 12.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 14.0% | 12.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.8% | 13.5% | 8.9% | RH | 21.2% | 14.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 11.3% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.3% | 7.5% | 11.1% | RH | 20.5% | 9.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.3% | 17.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | RH | 21.7% | 9.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.2% | 12.3% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | RH | 20.8% | 10.8% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 11.2% | 10.0% | RH | 21.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 15.9% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 20.7% | 12.6% | 11.2% | LH | 20.4% | 11.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.7% | 13.1% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 20.9% | 11.6% | 7.6% | RH | 19.6% | 10.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.4% | 13.4% | 6.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | RH | 20.3% | 9.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.5% | 10.8% | 10.1% | LH | 18.8% | 12.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.3% | 7.5% |
| Giants | Road | 22.2% | 11.6% | 6.4% | RH | 21.4% | 10.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 8.7% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Home | 20.4% | 11.9% | 10.0% | LH | 18.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Astros | Home | 18.2% | 17.3% | 9.9% | RH | 20.0% | 14.4% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 15.9% | 9.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 19.1% | 9.4% | 2.03 | 26.5% | 13.3% | 1.99 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.03 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.03 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 28.6% | 13.7% | 2.09 | 38.3% | 19.8% | 1.93 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 24.4% | 10.5% | 2.32 | 26.4% | 12.2% | 2.16 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 23.3% | 10.3% | 2.26 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 |
| Casey Kelly | SDG | 27.3% | 16.7% | 1.63 | 27.3% | 16.7% | 1.63 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.4% | 9.1% | 2.13 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 2.04 |
| David Hale | COL | 17.8% | 11.2% | 1.59 | 13.2% | 11.0% | 1.20 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.7% | 9.5% | 1.86 | 16.9% | 9.0% | 1.88 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 19.7% | 11.0% | 1.79 | 23.9% | 10.8% | 2.21 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 24.7% | 10.3% | 2.40 | 24.2% | 9.7% | 2.49 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.5% | 10.1% | 2.13 | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.04 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.3% | 9.1% | 2.12 | 18.9% | 9.2% | 2.05 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.7% | 10.2% | 2.42 | 25.6% | 9.0% | 2.84 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 20.1% | 8.5% | 2.36 | 24.8% | 9.5% | 2.61 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 32.1% | 13.8% | 2.33 | 36.6% | 11.6% | 3.16 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.9% | 10.8% | 1.94 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 1.84 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.11 | 19.7% | 6.3% | 3.13 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 20.9% | 8.3% | 2.52 | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.16 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 15.9% | 6.5% | 2.45 | 11.7% | 5.8% | 2.02 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.5% | 5.6% | 2.05 | 10.7% | 6.8% | 1.57 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 26.4% | 11.9% | 2.22 | 28.9% | 12.3% | 2.35 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.4% | 9.0% | 1.60 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 1.75 |
| Rich Hill | BOS | 37.7% | 11.1% | 3.40 | 37.7% | 11.1% | 3.40 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.66 | 17.6% | 11.0% | 1.60 |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.28 | 13.0% | 5.7% | 2.28 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 21.0% | 10.6% | 1.98 | 16.4% | 9.1% | 1.80 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.07 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 1.33 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 | 19.3% | 10.1% | 1.91 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 15.0% | 6.6% | 2.27 | 13.9% | 6.0% | 2.32 |
Carlos Carrasco has had a SwStr of at least 18.3% in each of his three starts since returning from injury. It’s true we’re only talking about 242 pitches total, but it’s incredibly impressive none the less.
Garrett Richards has seen his K% improve over the last month without any change to his SwStr%. Normally, that would be a red flag, but we’ve been hoping for an increase in his K% due to a well above average SwStr% all season, so this might be him finally realizing that.
Rich Hill – No, I don’t expect this guy to match Kershaw strikeout for strikeout, but an 11.1 SwStr% is pretty impressive in most cases and more so here, even if it is just two starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.79 | 4.11 | 0.32 | 3.95 | 0.16 | 3.64 | -0.15 | 2.97 | 2.56 | -0.41 | 2.35 | -0.62 | 1.53 | -1.44 |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 3.5 | 4.94 | 1.44 | 5.09 | 1.59 | 4.09 | 0.59 | 3.5 | 4.94 | 1.44 | 5.09 | 1.59 | 4.09 | 0.59 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.62 | 2.83 | -0.79 | 2.76 | -0.86 | 2.92 | -0.7 | 4.61 | 2.68 | -1.93 | 2.18 | -2.43 | 4.17 | -0.44 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.01 | 3.43 | 0.42 | 3.27 | 0.26 | 3.22 | 0.21 | 3.82 | 3.22 | -0.6 | 2.92 | -0.9 | 2.52 | -1.3 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.78 | 4.12 | 0.34 | 3.91 | 0.13 | 3.81 | 0.03 | 2.03 | 4.06 | 2.03 | 4.08 | 2.05 | 3.56 | 1.53 |
| Casey Kelly | SDG | 4.5 | 1.93 | -2.57 | 0.88 | -3.62 | 0.14 | -4.36 | 4.5 | 1.93 | -2.57 | 0.88 | -3.62 | 0.14 | -4.36 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.8 | 4.03 | -0.77 | 3.96 | -0.84 | 4.59 | -0.21 | 1.04 | 4.05 | 3.01 | 4.16 | 3.12 | 2.62 | 1.58 |
| David Hale | COL | 6.32 | 3.98 | -2.34 | 4.02 | -2.3 | 5.02 | -1.3 | 7.56 | 4.15 | -3.41 | 4.25 | -3.31 | 5.42 | -2.14 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.62 | 4.43 | 0.81 | 4.34 | 0.72 | 3.82 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 4.56 | -0.64 | 4.47 | -0.73 | 4.23 | -0.97 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.73 | 3.97 | 0.24 | 3.85 | 0.12 | 3.87 | 0.14 | 3.41 | 3.9 | 0.49 | 3.64 | 0.23 | 3.87 | 0.46 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.64 | 3.2 | 0.56 | 3.12 | 0.48 | 2.64 | 0 | 3.41 | 3.16 | -0.25 | 3.07 | -0.34 | 2.13 | -1.28 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.38 | 3.87 | 0.49 | 3.96 | 0.58 | 3.54 | 0.16 | 4.97 | 4.27 | -0.7 | 4.5 | -0.47 | 5 | 0.03 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.16 | 4.3 | 1.14 | 4.34 | 1.18 | 3.87 | 0.71 | 3.77 | 4.38 | 0.61 | 4.37 | 0.6 | 4.24 | 0.47 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.46 | 3.25 | -0.21 | 3.13 | -0.33 | 3.07 | -0.39 | 3.55 | 3.12 | -0.43 | 2.99 | -0.56 | 2.66 | -0.89 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.49 | 3.78 | 0.29 | 3.78 | 0.29 | 3.62 | 0.13 | 3.23 | 3.29 | 0.06 | 3.22 | -0.01 | 3.86 | 0.63 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.18 | 2.64 | 0.46 | 2.49 | 0.31 | 1.93 | -0.25 | 1.69 | 2.36 | 0.67 | 2.42 | 0.73 | 2.67 | 0.98 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.26 | 3.83 | -0.43 | 4 | -0.26 | 4.31 | 0.05 | 4.15 | 4.2 | 0.05 | 4.19 | 0.04 | 5.49 | 1.34 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 7.4 | 4.68 | -2.72 | 5.07 | -2.33 | 6.35 | -1.05 | 8 | 4.79 | -3.21 | 5.02 | -2.98 | 7.14 | -0.86 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 3.26 | 4.03 | 0.77 | 3.8 | 0.54 | 3.5 | 0.24 | 6.23 | 5.44 | -0.79 | 5.57 | -0.66 | 7.53 | 1.3 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 3.81 | 4.09 | 0.28 | 3.82 | 0.01 | 4.11 | 0.3 | 5.79 | 4.56 | -1.23 | 4.27 | -1.52 | 4.86 | -0.93 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4.16 | 4.65 | 0.49 | 4.51 | 0.35 | 4.1 | -0.06 | 7.58 | 4.71 | -2.87 | 4.62 | -2.96 | 5.72 | -1.86 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 3.39 | 3.11 | -0.28 | 3.05 | -0.34 | 3.34 | -0.05 | 4.38 | 2.52 | -1.86 | 2.44 | -1.94 | 3.99 | -0.39 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.05 | 4.79 | 0.74 | 4.76 | 0.71 | 4.61 | 0.56 | 3.06 | 4.24 | 1.18 | 4.05 | 0.99 | 4.22 | 1.16 |
| Rich Hill | BOS | 1.93 | 1.67 | -0.26 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 1.86 | -0.07 | 1.93 | 1.67 | -0.26 | 1.98 | 0.05 | 1.86 | -0.07 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.6 | 4.1 | -0.5 | 4.02 | -0.58 | 4.78 | 0.18 | 6.46 | 4.66 | -1.8 | 4.93 | -1.53 | 6.35 | -0.11 |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 3.26 | 4.23 | 0.97 | 4.21 | 0.95 | 3.97 | 0.71 | 3.26 | 4.23 | 0.97 | 4.21 | 0.95 | 3.97 | 0.71 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.73 | 4.03 | 1.3 | 4.02 | 1.29 | 3.76 | 1.03 | 4.5 | 4.71 | 0.21 | 5.27 | 0.77 | 5.89 | 1.39 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.72 | 3.84 | 1.12 | 3.73 | 1.01 | 3.44 | 0.72 | 6.75 | 5.21 | -1.54 | 4.88 | -1.87 | 4.79 | -1.96 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 3.3 | 3.66 | 0.36 | 4.12 | 0.82 | 4.47 | 1.17 | 4.42 | 4.55 | 0.13 | 5.05 | 0.63 | 5.65 | 1.23 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.41 | 4.64 | 1.23 | 4.36 | 0.95 | 4.04 | 0.63 | 4.32 | 4.75 | 0.43 | 4.26 | -0.06 | 4.7 | 0.38 |
Carlos Carrasco has an average 72.5 LOB% and I’m guessing his estimators just expect him to strand more runners with such a due to his very high K rate. His 12.9 HR/FB is also a bit high.
C.C. Sabathia – The BABIP is a bit high, but part of that is the defense. It’s really the HRs that have killed his ERA, which basically matches his FIP. He’s been better in September, really because he hasn’t allowed a HR in three starts. Otherwise, his xFIP and SIERA is the same.
Noah Syndergaard – This (his last 30 days) is the whole HR thing we talked about above. His other estimators (xFIP and SIERA) are actually a half run better over the last month.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.293 | 0.312 | 0.019 | 10.7% | 86.7% |
| Ariel Pena | MIL | 0.301 | 0.245 | -0.056 | 14.3% | 89.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.292 | 0.306 | 0.014 | 6.1% | 85.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.297 | 0.318 | 0.021 | 6.6% | 87.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.312 | 0.316 | 0.004 | 8.5% | 86.4% |
| Casey Kelly | SDG | 0.302 | 0.625 | 0.323 | 0.0% | 83.3% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.300 | 0.320 | 0.02 | 9.9% | 89.3% |
| David Hale | COL | 0.317 | 0.323 | 0.006 | 2.6% | 84.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.287 | 0.291 | 0.004 | 5.3% | 86.7% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.286 | 0.277 | -0.009 | 10.9% | 88.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.304 | 0.309 | 0.005 | 6.6% | 88.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.283 | 0.272 | -0.011 | 9.7% | 85.1% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.318 | 0.255 | -0.063 | 10.6% | 89.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.291 | 0.309 | 0.018 | 7.4% | 86.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.304 | 0.305 | 0.001 | 11.2% | 89.7% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.292 | 0.307 | 0.015 | 7.9% | 83.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.295 | 0.287 | -0.008 | 12.5% | 84.3% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.301 | 0.333 | 0.032 | 11.1% | 85.2% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.296 | 0.298 | 0.002 | 4.8% | 91.9% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 0.285 | 0.270 | -0.015 | 7.8% | 94.4% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.299 | 0.326 | 0.027 | 7.1% | 92.6% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.286 | 0.287 | 0.001 | 11.4% | 86.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.281 | 0.263 | -0.018 | 13.7% | 84.9% |
| Rich Hill | BOS | 0.307 | 0.241 | -0.066 | 40.0% | 73.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.292 | 0.287 | -0.005 | 6.7% | 83.0% |
| Ryan Weber | ATL | 0.307 | 0.192 | -0.115 | 0.0% | 93.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.283 | 0.262 | -0.021 | 7.7% | 86.1% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.287 | 0.254 | -0.033 | 8.3% | 88.3% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.295 | 0.279 | -0.016 | 9.1% | 84.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.294 | 0.292 | -0.002 | 8.7% | 89.7% |
No notes today.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Rich Hill (3) – On the one hand, I might be going a little bit overboard on just two starts. On the other hand, they’ve both been incredibly dominant seven-inning performances against two great offenses vs LHP. And if you are the type of creature who has three hands and can read, on that hand, you look at his near minimum price on DraftKings and have to use him in many of your GPP lineups because he’s facing a much worse offense vs LHP this time and one that strikes out a lot.
Value Tier Two
Jose Fernandez (1) is your highest priced pitcher tonight and that’s not going to be an issue if the Marlins are now allowing him to go over 90 pitches, which he did in his last start. The Braves may strike out less than most teams, but don’t hit the ball terribly hard when they do make contact. Even a slightly reduced K% might be the top one of the day.
Value Tier Three
Carlos Carrasco (2) – If the Royals come out with a garbage lineup, go ahead and bump him up a bit. If not, he still struck out nine of them two starts back and struck out nine more White Sox in his last start and has struck out at least seven in seven of his last eight.
Noah Syndergaard (4) – The lack of run prevention is a concern at a high price, especially since most of it has been based on HRs and he now faces a team with some pop in a power-friendly park, but it’s really not a scary overall run environment and he has struck out eight or more in three of his last four starts.
Jordan Zimmermann (5t) is now striking out an above average rate of batters in the 2nd half of the season and he gets to face the Phillies at home.
Anthony DeSclafani now seems to have a credible 3rd pitch and seems to be using his entire arsenal more effectively now. You want to be careful of new pitches and September hot streaks (see Drew Hutchison last year), but we like what we see so far and he’s facing a now……lukewarm?…..Mets offense. He did get beat up a bit in his last start against a weakened Milwaukee offense.
Carlos Martinez (5t) has picked it back up over his last couple of starts and the underlying numbers have been there all along. It’s really been a matter of not allowing so much hard contact, which he’s done with a two-week rate that matches his season. It’s a good thing to be facing the Brewers these days and even better when you get them out of Milwaukee.
C.C. Sabathia has been pitching better with a knee brace and now faces one of the worst offenses in baseball vs LHP at a below average price.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Ryan Weber doesn’t miss enough bats to have much upside, but has a great matchup at the near minimum on most sites.
Kevin Gausman is a very affordable source of potentially a great amount of frustration tonight, but does better than the average pitcher in terms of K-BB% and contact authority.
Vidal Nuno – Sometimes strikeouts, sometimes beating.
Garrett Richards – The thing he’s done to compensate for a lower than expected strikeout rate at times, generates a lot of weak contact. The Mariners generate more hard contact vs RHP than any other team, so this probably comes down to his ability to turn swinging strikes into strikeouts tonight.
Casey Kelly is a mostly unknown at this point, but he’s a cheap unknown.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.