Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, August 4th
Part of the struggle tonight is going to be remembering which team everyone pitches for as several pitchers are making their debut in a new uniform since the trade deadline with two making their major league debut. It will be no small miracle if nobody gets mislabeled. I seriously had no idea J.A. Happ pitches for the Pirates now. I completely missed that move. Not to mention that Houston has now changed tomorrow’s starting pitcher twice since I started prep work for this article, so if it’s not Dan Straily, you’re stuck with him anyway.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 4.8 | 3.59 | 6.1 | 1.38 | 1.01 | 3.75 | 4.68 | PHI | 88 | 97 | 112 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 19.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -8.6 | 3.66 | 6.44 | 1.56 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 4.21 | MIL | 87 | 90 | 50 | 18.5% | 6.4% | 21.4% | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.9 | 4.33 | 5.76 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 4.22 | 4.87 | STL | 94 | 102 | 114 | 17.4% | 7.6% | 20.9% | 9.6% | 7.6% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 5.2 | 4.26 | 5.38 | 1.55 | 1.01 | 3.93 | 2.76 | NYM | 75 | 83 | 116 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 7.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -4.1 | 2.71 | 6.17 | 1.79 | 0.91 | 2.76 | 2.29 | ANA | 107 | 103 | 64 | 22.5% | 6.1% | 18.2% | 11.3% | 7.6% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 9.6 | 3.28 | 6.02 | 1.47 | 1.08 | 3.33 | 1.52 | CHW | 80 | 90 | 149 | 25.8% | 6.5% | 21.4% | 9.5% | 11.3% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | -8.5 | 4.54 | 5.82 | 0.95 | 0.93 | 4.41 | 3.27 | BAL | 91 | 103 | 126 | 20.1% | 6.4% | 20.3% | 11.1% | 11.3% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -6.3 | 2.59 | 6.86 | 1.14 | 1.08 | 2.55 | 2.6 | TAM | 93 | 110 | 129 | 25.3% | 5.8% | 21.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 10 | 4.53 | 5.49 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 4.26 | 5.35 | DET | 113 | 116 | 108 | 19.3% | 7.7% | 22.6% | 11.6% | 13.9% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | -2.1 | 0 | 0 | 1.02 | NYY | 121 | 113 | 169 | ||||||||
| J.A. Happ | PIT | -4.5 | 4.09 | 5.62 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 3.71 | 5.45 | CHC | 95 | 94 | 90 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 22.9% | 14.7% | 6.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 3.2 | 3.06 | 6.35 | 1.76 | 0.91 | 2.55 | 3.43 | PIT | 100 | 95 | 104 | 23.3% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 10.4% | 6.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 1.7 | 4.23 | 6.25 | 0.86 | 0.98 | 4.09 | 4.21 | ATL | 90 | 89 | 90 | 15.8% | 5.6% | 20.8% | 9.7% | 10.8% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | -6.9 | 4.24 | 5.52 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 3.97 | 3.89 | LOS | 103 | 112 | 114 | 17.8% | 6.6% | 21.6% | 17.1% | 8.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.8 | 3.87 | 5.94 | 1.62 | 1.07 | 3.61 | 3.65 | SDG | 88 | 92 | 122 | 21.8% | 7.7% | 21.2% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| John Lackey | STL | 1.4 | 3.79 | 6.55 | 1.26 | 1.02 | 4.07 | 2.96 | CIN | 111 | 97 | 110 | 19.2% | 6.9% | 20.6% | 12.6% | 9.7% |
| Jon Gray | COL | -0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | SEA | 88 | 95 | 118 | ||||||||
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.4 | 3.83 | 6.25 | 1.77 | 1.01 | 3.81 | 3.73 | FLA | 82 | 106 | 40 | 18.3% | 6.2% | 19.1% | 12.1% | 7.8% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 5.4 | 3.98 | 6.47 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 4.88 | 3.33 | KAN | 94 | 101 | 46 | 17.7% | 4.6% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 10.4% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2 | 3.9 | 6.03 | 0.67 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 4.75 | MIN | 71 | 89 | 76 | 20.9% | 6.9% | 20.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -5.5 | 2.89 | 6.59 | 1.49 | 1.02 | 2.95 | 4.03 | BOS | 84 | 96 | 115 | 20.5% | 6.2% | 21.4% | 13.8% | 10.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3 | 3.44 | 5.87 | 0.99 | 0.91 | 3.29 | 2.55 | CLE | 91 | 97 | 93 | 23.9% | 7.3% | 17.1% | 8.6% | 10.7% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | -4.5 | 2.91 | 6.78 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 3.19 | 2.88 | ARI | 96 | 96 | 112 | 24.8% | 6.7% | 18.5% | 14.4% | 10.3% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 7.6 | 4.34 | 5.93 | 0.99 | 0.93 | 4.25 | 4.11 | OAK | 97 | 95 | 45 | 16.3% | 6.3% | 23.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% |
| Dan Straily | HOU | -1.7 | 4.34 | 5.51 | 0.83 | 1.08 | 4.44 | TEX | 97 | 102 | 127 | ||||||
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 3.1 | 3.48 | 5.75 | 1.54 | 1.03 | 3.06 | 2.42 | WAS | 89 | 88 | 63 | 24.3% | 6.9% | 21.1% | 16.2% | 10.2% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 2.3 | 3.67 | 6.1 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 3.44 | 4.09 | TOR | 125 | 107 | 128 | 16.8% | 5.4% | 23.8% | 11.8% | 11.6% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | -3.9 | 4.32 | 5.9 | 1.16 | 0.98 | 4.13 | 4.26 | SFO | 111 | 115 | 107 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 17.8% | 10.1% | 8.3% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | -2.7 | 3.76 | 5.61 | 0.87 | 1.4 | 3.69 | 3.49 | COL | 99 | 62 | 96 | 22.0% | 6.9% | 22.9% | 8.0% | 10.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 2.4 | 4 | 6. | 1.71 | 1.08 | 4.05 | 5.83 | HOU | 94 | 108 | 156 | 18.2% | 8.0% | 21.7% | 14.0% | 6.8% |
Alex Wood makes his first start for the Dodgers tonight and is coming off one of his best starts of the season with seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts in Baltimore. He gets a slight upgrade in defense, which should help, but with tonight’s start on the road against a familiar foe, we can’t really talk about the small park upgrade yet. His strikeout rate continues to disappoint and now gives him a 10.6 K-BB% for the season. A matchup with the Phillies is now much more neutral than it’s been for most the season. They’re nearly average vs LHP pitching despite a 0.6 Hard-Soft%.
Andrew Cashner was pounded by the Mets in his last start and continues on a path of inconsistency this season. Even more alarming is a 4.7 SwStr% for the month of July (four starts) to go along with a significant downwards slope in velocity that started in May it looks like. He now has just a 15.5 K% on the road since last season. The only upside here is in his opposition. The Brewers are a very good park adjusted matchup despite the park with a 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP. They’ve been ice cold since the trade deadline with a 4.5 HR/FB over the last week.
Brad Hand has done most of his work out of the bullpen, but started a few games about two months ago and has often gone multiple innings in his relief appearances, so he could give the team five innings here. He doesn’t get lots of swings and misses, but has good control and keeps the ball in the park, though a 0.0 HR/FB is not sustainable, but neither is 58.7 LOB%. Most of that work has been out of the pen though, so we’ll refrain from digging too deep. The Mets exploded on Miami last night and have a different, more potent look to the lineup, but still lean more towards the left side and are a bad road offense (22.3 K%, 7.4 HR/FB) that’s struggled against LHP (24.1 K%).
Carlos Carrasco is coming off a complete game two hitter with seven strikeouts against Oakland without a single hard hit ball. His 22.0 K-BB% is a slight improvement on last season. The Angels are a solid offense that’s been cold and park adjusts down to a good matchup.
Chris Archer has put up three straight superb starts against quality offenses since his mishap in Kansas City and now has a 25.1 K-BB% on the season, striking out nearly a third of the batters he’s faced, including 20 of his last 49. If that’s not enough, he has one of the top defenses in the majors behind him when they do occasionally hit the ball. The White Sox have a 14.8 K-BB% at home and 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP, but have been hot with a 17.4 HR/FB over the last week.
Chris Sale has struck out either six or seven in four of his last five starts after his run of dominance, but has a 0.0 Hard-Soft% and 27.0 K-BB% at home since last season. The matchup is not an easy one against an offense that handles LHP well, but the Rays will strike out more than average. Sale has the highest projected K% of the night.
Jake Arrieta has capitalized on his breakout last season with an identical 20.6 K-BB% and very similar 3.3 Hard-Soft%. He’s once again throwing his slider nearly 30% of the time and his arm hasn’t fallen off yet. He has a 22.5 K-BB% on the road with a 6.5 HR/FB since last season. The Pirates are an average offense, but a good park adjusted matchup at home.
Jimmy Nelson is having a very average and inconsistent season, but is coming off back to back seven shutout inning performances, striking out 13 of 52 batters. He has a 15.1 K-BB%, but 14.7 HR/FB at home since last season. The Padres have been hitting the ball well over the last week and park adjuste up to something a little better than league average here, but have a 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP this year.
Jon Niese rebounded nicely in his last start and can blame a newborn baby for the only really bad start he’s had since May. He has just an 8.3 K-BB%, but with the strongest GB rate of his career (54.6%) and contact authority rates right around average and his career level. The appeal today is in the opposition. The Marlins have hit LHP well, though with a 15.1 K-BB% and have been very poor at home and ice cold over the last week (5.6 HR/FB).
Justin Verlander has gone eight innings in each of his last two starts with a season high 10 strikeouts last time out with a spike in his SwStr% in July. I’m not saying he’s back, but he’s done enough to force a second look here despite a 7.3 K-BB% at home since last season. We know the Royals strike out less than any team in the league, but they are also one of the coldest offenses in baseball right now and are really just an overall neutral matchup here.
Marco Estrada has an 11.3 K-BB% well below his career average, but has been able to suppress HRs in Toronto of all places. While that’s difficult to buy, his 6.0 Hard-Soft% is much better than his career average as well, so it could be something he’s consciously doing that we don’t have time to explore today, though his batted ball rates are exactly what they’ve been for his career, though with fewer pop ups. The reason we’re even talking about him today though is that the Twins are the worst road offense (15.5 K-BB%, 7.4 HR/FB) in the majors and not very good vs RHP either. They are one of the better matchups tonight even after factoring in the offensive environment and have struck out in a quarter of their plate appearances over the last week.
Masahiro Tanaka had nine strikeouts in his first start in June after missing a month, but has only even reached seven twice since then with inconsistent overall results and four starts where he’s allowed multiple HRs. This seems to be the downside of not having your elbow fully attached to the rest of your body. He has a 17.9 HR/FB at home as a Yankee. Boston has been a bad road offense this year and rate about neutral even with the park bump here, though they will likely pull down his K% even further.
Matt Shoemaker seems to have refound his rookie magic. He’s allowed two ERs or fewer in five straight starts with his last two being completely dominant (no ERs with 17 Ks vs 48 batters). The caveat is that one of those starts was against Houston and he struck out a total of seven in the three starts preceeding the last two despite the pretty results. He has an 18.2 K-BB% at home in his career. Cleveland is a very good park adjusted matchup. They do take a lot of walks, but that hasn’t been much of an issue for him. They also have a -4.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week that’s the worst in baseball.
Max Scherzer has dominated with a career best 26.5 K-BB% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% in his first year in Washington. He’s been a bit more human lately though, allowing five ERs in five innings or fewer in two of his last five starts allowing six of his 13 HRs this year over that span. The matchup is about as neutral as it can get for him today, though Arizona has a 14.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP that’s near the top of the league.
Miguel Gonzalez should be an Oakland A. His style is perfect for that park with a career 0.94 GB/FB and 11.8 IFFB%. It would probably help with his 15.4 HR/FB this year as well. With just a 10.5 K-BB% this year, his results have not been very good, but this is mostly about the Oakland offense. They only strike out 15.7% at home this season, but that comes with just a 6.5 HR/FB in Oakland and 5.4 Hard-Soft% overall. They are one of the coldest offenses in baseball since trading away Zobrist and park adjust to potentially the top matchup tonight.
Patrick Corbin appears to be the least regarded pitcher making an extraordinary return from Tommy John Surgery this year, as he’s done so with a 21.4 K-BB% in five starts that’s supported by increased velocity and a higher SwStr%. We’re obviously going to need more before anointing him, but it’s a great start and worthy of notice. In addition, he faces a scuffling Washington team, who are likely frustrated and pressing, though who can really measure that stuff and it’s not really what we talk about here. Part of it is probably that they’ve faced a murderer’s row of pitching since the All-Star break. What we can measure is a 22.1 K% vs LHP this year and a below average offense at home that makes them a good park adjusted matchup.
Vidal Nuno could be someone it might be insane to look at tonight, but note that even with Tulo, the Rockies were the worst offense in the majors vs LHP with a 24.4 K%. I’m not calling it a good idea, but it could generate some thought just on that fact alone. Maybe considering visiting LHPs in Colorado for the rest of the season is the new market inefficiency. Note that all of his work is out of the bullpen this season, but he has gone multiple innings frequently.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Chris Bassitt (.254 BABIP – 74.2 LOB% – 5.9 HR/FB) – Add just a 5.8 SwStr% over the last month exclusively as a starter.
John Lackey (.283 BABIP – 80.7 LOB% – 7.4 HR/FB) – His HR rate is fine for St Louis. The problem is that he’s on the road where he has a 15.1 K-BB% and 14.8 HR/FB. It’s a tough park against a team that uses their power well there (13.6 HR/FB at home).
Anthony DeSclafani (.285 BABIP – 71.3 LOB% – 7.8 HR/FB) – While that HR rate might be sustainable in some larger stadiums, Cincinnati isn’t one of them and he doesn’t seem to generate a particularly large amount of ground balls.
Yovani Gallardo (.279 BABIP – 74.4 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) – He has a career 11.0 HR/FB, has allowed exactly five ERs in three straight starts, and has an incredibly dangerous matchup for a pitcher that has seemingly lost all ability to miss bats now.
Shelby Miller (.276 BABIP – 78.5 LOB% – 6.5 HR/FB) – Although he has a career .269 BABIP, it’s still a small sample and his batted ball profile has changed drastically this season with more ground balls than fly balls for the first time and about half the pop ups he usually gets. Andrelton Simmons can’t catch everything.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jake Peavy has a decent matchup, but a very low ceiling considering both his low strikeout rate and that of his opponent.
J.A. Happ has a solid matchup from a strikeout and park adjusted perspective, but just isn’t that good, nor has he struck out more than three in any of his last four starts.
Dan Straily – He hasn’t had a bad season in AAA, but faces a tough LH heavy lineup in an uncomfortable environment.
Jon Gray is Colorado’s top prospect and although this is very exciting for them, he’s on a strict innings limit as mentioned by his manager, has been mediocre (13.6 K-BB%, 3.90 FIP) at AAA, and pitches in Colorado.
Henry Owens had been one of the Red Sox top prospects, but has taken a step back this year with just a 9.4 K-BB% in 122.1 AAA IP. He has the worst park adjusted matchup outside of Colorado tonight, so maybe it’s not worth talking much about him until his next start. Yes, the Yankees hit LHP well too.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.5% | 7.0% | Road | 18.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 10.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.5% | 6.1% | Road | 15.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 17.0% | 7.7% | Home | 16.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.1% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 14.7% | 7.6% | Home | 15.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 26.5% | 5.5% | Road | 26.9% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 6.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 24.5% | 7.2% | Road | 23.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 4.1% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 15.9% | 8.3% | Home | 18.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 2.1% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 29.8% | 5.2% | Home | 31.7% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 1.8% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 17.6% | 9.4% | Road | 18.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 18.9% | 7.8% | Home | 20.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 11.7% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 25.8% | 7.1% | Road | 27.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 17.8% | 7.2% | Road | 18.8% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 15.0% | 6.6% | Home | 17.7% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 2.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.7% | 8.0% | Home | 21.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 11.3% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 18.9% | 5.6% | Road | 15.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 23.6% | 5.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.3% | 6.1% | Road | 16.1% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 19.4% | 6.8% | Home | 14.9% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.2% | 0.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 20.8% | 6.9% | Home | 20.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 25.1% | 4.4% | Home | 26.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 5.4% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.1% | 5.1% | Home | 24.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 8.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 28.3% | 6.1% | Home | 27.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 16.8% | 7.4% | Road | 17.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 2.1% |
| Dan Straily | Astros | 20.4% | 10.9% | Road | 19.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 20.9% | 5.7% | Road | 25.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 6.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 18.6% | 2.5% | Road | 19.7% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 0.0% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.1% | 9.0% | Home | 18.1% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 5.6% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 20.4% | 6.6% | Road | 22.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 17.4% | 7.5% | Home | 17.1% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 7.8% | 9.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 18.4% | 6.4% | LH | 20.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 5.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.0% | 7.1% | RH | 20.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.7% | 5.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 7.6% | RH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.9% |
| Mets | Road | 22.3% | 6.5% | LH | 24.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 20.0% | 7.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 4.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.6% | 6.8% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.7% | 6.5% | RH | 22.2% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.8% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Road | 20.8% | 7.5% | LH | 21.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.6% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 18.9% | 7.4% | LH | 23.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 3.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.0% | 9.0% | LH | 18.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 23.9% | 8.8% | LH | 22.9% | 10.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 9.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.6% | 6.9% | RH | 20.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 18.4% | 8.4% | RH | 17.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 11.0% | 3.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.4% | 9.6% | RH | 20.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Road | 21.8% | 7.5% | RH | 21.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.7% |
| Reds | Home | 18.3% | 8.7% | RH | 18.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.1% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 19.9% | 5.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.6% | 6.6% | LH | 21.8% | 6.5% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.5% |
| Royals | Road | 16.7% | 5.2% | RH | 15.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 2.4% |
| Twins | Road | 22.1% | 6.9% | RH | 20.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.3% | 7.9% | RH | 16.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 6.6% |
| Indians | Road | 18.4% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.2% | 7.5% | RH | 21.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 4.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.7% | 7.2% | RH | 17.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.0% | 8.4% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.1% | 8.0% | LH | 22.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.2% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 15.7% | 9.7% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 13.0% | 9.3% |
| Giants | Road | 18.8% | 6.9% | RH | 17.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.8% | 5.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.8% | 7.1% | LH | 24.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 6.2% |
| Astros | Road | 23.3% | 7.0% | RH | 24.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 6.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.1% | 8.2% | 8.5% | Road | 20.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | Road | 20.2% | 11.8% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.4% | 8.2% | 7.0% | Home | 22.7% | 11.8% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Brad Hand | Marlins | 20.3% | 6.9% | 4.0% | Home | 19.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 18.6% | 8.8% | 5.6% | Road | 18.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.1% | 9.9% | 11.0% | Road | 21.9% | 7.6% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Chris Bassitt | Athletics | 24.3% | 3.6% | 14.5% | Home | 21.3% | 3.8% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 20.0% | 9.7% | 11.3% | Home | 20.3% | 10.2% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 21.4% | 6.9% | 14.1% | Road | 18.9% | 9.6% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 17.6% | 23.5% |
| Henry Owens | Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| J.A. Happ | Pirates | 21.1% | 10.9% | 9.9% | Home | 20.9% | 11.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 30.8% | 0.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | 22.3% | 8.1% | 10.5% | Road | 24.0% | 6.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | 20.1% | 8.6% | 11.1% | Road | 18.4% | 12.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Jerome Williams | Phillies | 23.5% | 13.2% | 7.4% | Home | 24.9% | 15.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.7% | 10.2% | 9.6% | Home | 20.4% | 14.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Lackey | Cardinals | 20.4% | 10.1% | 12.4% | Road | 19.1% | 14.8% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jon Niese | Mets | 21.8% | 10.7% | 6.4% | Road | 20.0% | 10.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 21.1% | 8.0% | 12.0% | Home | 16.5% | 8.2% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 4.8% | 14.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.1% | 10.2% | 12.4% | Home | 18.6% | 9.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 22.2% | 15.5% | 9.8% | Home | 20.9% | 17.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 18.5% | 10.8% | 6.9% | Home | 18.3% | 11.0% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 20.3% | 6.9% | 10.1% | Home | 20.3% | 7.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | 22.4% | 13.0% | 11.5% | Road | 23.8% | 13.3% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Dan Straily | Astros | 16.3% | 10.8% | 16.6% | Road | 14.4% | 9.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 22.5% | 17.2% | 11.5% | Road | 17.2% | 33.3% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | 24.3% | 9.0% | 11.2% | Road | 25.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Braves | 18.5% | 9.5% | 10.7% | Home | 20.5% | 6.5% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% |
| Vidal Nuno | Mariners | 18.8% | 11.0% | 8.3% | Road | 19.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.4% | 10.6% | 5.9% | Home | 20.5% | 12.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Home | 21.7% | 9.1% | 8.2% | LH | 22.1% | 8.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.3% | 11.5% | 6.5% | RH | 21.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 4.5% | 13.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.4% | 11.0% | 11.0% | RH | 22.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.2% | 11.3% | 1.9% |
| Mets | Road | 23.2% | 7.4% | 10.9% | LH | 20.5% | 12.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.2% | 22.2% | 12.7% |
| Angels | Home | 21.9% | 12.3% | 10.7% | RH | 20.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 15.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.5% | 11.3% | 9.2% | RH | 21.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 22.4% | 17.4% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.2% | 11.3% | 11.1% | RH | 21.2% | 14.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 19.1% | 10.3% |
| Rays | Road | 21.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | LH | 20.2% | 11.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.5% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.6% | 9.7% | 9.5% | LH | 24.1% | 13.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | 16.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 15.6% | 9.8% | LH | 18.4% | 13.1% | 10.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 19.3% | 5.3% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.2% | 10.5% | 7.8% | LH | 24.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 22.1% | 17.0% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.0% | 10.5% | 6.3% | RH | 20.7% | 9.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.9% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Home | 21.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | RH | 22.2% | 7.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 13.8% | 8.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.1% | 14.0% | 8.2% | RH | 21.1% | 14.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Padres | Road | 20.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | RH | 19.4% | 10.3% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.5% | 11.8% |
| Reds | Home | 23.5% | 13.6% | 8.4% | RH | 21.4% | 10.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.4% | 12.9% | 8.0% | RH | 20.0% | 12.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 16.9% | 4.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | LH | 20.6% | 14.1% | 6.7% | L7Days | 15.4% | 5.6% | 7.4% |
| Royals | Road | 23.0% | 9.1% | 9.7% | RH | 21.5% | 8.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.2% | 6.3% | 7.9% |
| Twins | Road | 18.8% | 7.4% | 11.0% | RH | 20.5% | 9.4% | 12.1% | L7Days | 21.3% | 12.2% | 6.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.7% | 8.9% | 12.4% | RH | 20.5% | 9.4% | 11.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 12.2% | 4.1% |
| Indians | Road | 20.4% | 9.8% | 9.6% | RH | 20.3% | 9.8% | 11.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.1% | 15.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.6% | 11.5% | 10.4% | RH | 21.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.3% | 17.0% | 11.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.5% | 6.5% | 11.9% | RH | 20.8% | 8.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 14.8% | 5.2% | 6.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.4% | 10.9% | 8.9% | RH | 19.1% | 11.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.7% | 12.5% | 10.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.7% | 11.4% | 9.2% | LH | 19.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 12.5% | 7.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 15.1% | 14.7% | RH | 18.8% | 13.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 13.4% | 15.9% |
| Giants | Road | 22.9% | 13.3% | 5.8% | RH | 21.7% | 10.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 13.4% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.8% | 13.0% | 8.7% | LH | 22.9% | 5.7% | 9.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| Astros | Road | 22.0% | 11.5% | 10.9% | RH | 20.2% | 15.6% | 10.9% | L7Days | 15.9% | 18.5% | 8.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 17.7% | 7.3% | 2.42 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 2.42 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.48 | 15.9% | 4.1% | 3.88 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 16.8% | 8.7% | 1.93 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.82 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 15.5% | 7.8% | 1.99 | 15.0% | 7.4% | 2.03 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.3% | 13.3% | 2.05 | 25.2% | 12.7% | 1.98 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 31.0% | 13.6% | 2.28 | 29.9% | 16.5% | 1.81 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 16.4% | 6.6% | 2.48 | 16.5% | 5.8% | 2.84 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 32.0% | 15.2% | 2.11 | 24.7% | 12.8% | 1.93 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 14.8% | 6.5% | 2.28 | 9.5% | 6.3% | 1.51 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | ||||||
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 17.5% | 7.2% | 2.43 | 12.2% | 6.5% | 1.88 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.7% | 10.3% | 2.59 | 27.6% | 11.7% | 2.36 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 15.4% | 7.5% | 2.05 | 14.1% | 6.6% | 2.14 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 12.3% | 8.6% | 1.43 | 10.4% | 8.2% | 1.27 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.3% | 10.6% | 1.92 | 23.4% | 10.4% | 2.25 |
| John Lackey | STL | 17.7% | 8.7% | 2.03 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.32 |
| Jon Gray | COL | ||||||
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.1% | 6.0% | 2.52 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 1.97 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 16.8% | 9.5% | 1.77 | 21.9% | 10.9% | 2.01 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 18.8% | 10.7% | 1.76 | 14.3% | 10.0% | 1.43 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.8% | 12.3% | 1.93 | 20.7% | 11.9% | 1.74 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 20.9% | 9.3% | 2.25 | 25.3% | 8.9% | 2.84 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 29.8% | 14.6% | 2.04 | 26.2% | 15.8% | 1.66 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 17.7% | 9.4% | 1.88 | 14.8% | 8.9% | 1.66 |
| Dan Straily | HOU | 23.4% | 11.2% | 2.09 | 16.7% | 10.5% | 1.59 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 25.9% | 11.8% | 2.19 | 25.9% | 11.8% | 2.19 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 14.2% | 5.6% | 2.54 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 2.07 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 20.3% | 9.2% | 2.21 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.06 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 27.0% | 12.2% | 2.21 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.46 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 15.4% | 6.5% | 2.37 | 9.3% | 5.9% | 1.58 |
Andrew Cashner has seen a huge drop in his SwStr% over the last month that’s not even fully captured in his K%. He topped out at 6.6% in four July starts.
Marco Estrada has seen a further drop in his K%, but that should not be concerning with a SwStr% that’s remained stable. In fact, his overall SwStr% is right on his career rate and might suggest a rebound in the K department.
Masahiro Tanaka – The SwStr% is still very strong, though a bit lower than what he’s normally done, and would suggest a higher than average K%. He’s only had a SwStr below 9.7% once this season and that was his 2nd start.
Matt Shoemaker only had three starts over the last month and one was in Colorado with a 2.9 SwStr%. The other two were both in double digits. There’s nothing to see here.
Max Scherzer – A slight drop in K% over the last month actually shows up with an increase in SwStr%.
Miguel Gonzalez – In what has become a trend, and probably a lot to do with smaller sample sizes due to the break, here’s another pitcher with a reduced strikeout rate, but little to no drop in their SwStr% over the last month. In fact, his 9.4 SwStr% this season is a career high.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 3.54 | 4.11 | 0.57 | 3.9 | 0.36 | 3.4 | -0.14 | 4.91 | 4.47 | -0.44 | 4.29 | -0.62 | 4.21 | -0.7 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.13 | 3.83 | -0.3 | 3.77 | -0.36 | 3.97 | -0.16 | 4.5 | 4.22 | -0.28 | 4.09 | -0.41 | 3.98 | -0.52 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.75 | 4.52 | 0.77 | 4.38 | 0.63 | 3.96 | 0.21 | 4.01 | 4.39 | 0.38 | 4.38 | 0.37 | 4.95 | 0.94 |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 5.12 | 3.81 | -1.31 | 3.82 | -1.3 | 2.56 | -2.56 | 0 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 4.17 | 4.17 | 2.61 | 2.61 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 4.03 | 2.76 | -1.27 | 2.73 | -1.3 | 2.84 | -1.19 | 4.5 | 2.68 | -1.82 | 2.72 | -1.78 | 3.08 | -1.42 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.54 | 2.56 | 0.02 | 2.52 | -0.02 | 2.5 | -0.04 | 4.15 | 2.59 | -1.56 | 2.56 | -1.59 | 2.7 | -1.45 |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 3.1 | 4.45 | 1.35 | 4.78 | 1.68 | 3.97 | 0.87 | 3.24 | 4.14 | 0.9 | 4.21 | 0.97 | 3.44 | 0.2 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.2 | 2.37 | -0.83 | 2.44 | -0.76 | 2.32 | -0.88 | 4.19 | 2.82 | -1.37 | 2.87 | -1.32 | 3.02 | -1.17 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 4.28 | 4.91 | 0.63 | 4.79 | 0.51 | 4.75 | 0.47 | 2.51 | 5.6 | 3.09 | 5.21 | 2.7 | 5.65 | 3.14 |
| Henry Owens | BOS | ||||||||||||||
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 4.64 | 4.16 | -0.48 | 4.03 | -0.61 | 4.07 | -0.57 | 8.47 | 5.54 | -2.93 | 5.43 | -3.04 | 7.67 | -0.8 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.62 | 2.86 | 0.24 | 2.72 | 0.1 | 2.61 | -0.01 | 2.08 | 2.96 | 0.88 | 2.67 | 0.59 | 2.27 | 0.19 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 4.12 | 4.47 | 0.35 | 4.55 | 0.43 | 4.3 | 0.18 | 2.84 | 4.2 | 1.36 | 4.12 | 1.28 | 3.87 | 1.03 |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 6.36 | 4.61 | -1.75 | 4.5 | -1.86 | 5.57 | -0.79 | 5.91 | 3.89 | -2.02 | 3.75 | -2.16 | 6.08 | 0.17 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.76 | 3.92 | 0.16 | 3.88 | 0.12 | 3.99 | 0.23 | 1.64 | 3.54 | 1.9 | 3.44 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.56 |
| John Lackey | STL | 2.78 | 4 | 1.22 | 3.93 | 1.15 | 3.44 | 0.66 | 1.26 | 3.84 | 2.58 | 3.74 | 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.19 |
| Jon Gray | COL | ||||||||||||||
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.63 | 4.07 | 0.44 | 3.95 | 0.32 | 4.19 | 0.56 | 2.87 | 3.9 | 1.03 | 3.97 | 1.1 | 3.91 | 1.04 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.86 | 4.38 | -0.48 | 4.5 | -0.36 | 4.86 | 0 | 4.73 | 3.54 | -1.19 | 3.64 | -1.09 | 3.73 | -1 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.53 | 4.33 | 0.8 | 4.6 | 1.07 | 3.9 | 0.37 | 3.38 | 5.11 | 1.73 | 5.04 | 1.66 | 2.98 | -0.4 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.8 | 3.21 | -0.59 | 3.17 | -0.63 | 4.01 | 0.21 | 3.49 | 3.56 | 0.07 | 3.44 | -0.05 | 4.39 | 0.9 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.24 | 3.75 | -0.49 | 3.97 | -0.27 | 4.26 | 0.02 | 1.37 | 3.45 | 2.08 | 3.91 | 2.54 | 2.78 | 1.41 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.22 | 2.57 | 0.35 | 2.88 | 0.66 | 2.38 | 0.16 | 3.73 | 2.96 | -0.77 | 3.17 | -0.56 | 4.04 | 0.31 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 4.28 | 4.24 | -0.04 | 4.18 | -0.1 | 4.81 | 0.53 | 5 | 4.33 | -0.67 | 4.01 | -0.99 | 4.04 | -0.96 |
| Dan Straily | HOU | 5.06 | 3.52 | -1.54 | 3.37 | -1.69 | 3.93 | -1.13 | 3 | 3.46 | 0.46 | 3.72 | 0.72 | 3.25 | 0.25 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 3.21 | 2.87 | -0.34 | 3.02 | -0.19 | 4.08 | 0.87 | 3.21 | 2.87 | -0.34 | 3.02 | -0.19 | 4.08 | 0.87 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 4.11 | 4.31 | 0.2 | 4.18 | 0.07 | 4.59 | 0.48 | 3.56 | 4.59 | 1.03 | 4.41 | 0.85 | 4.8 | 1.24 |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 2.44 | 3.83 | 1.39 | 3.76 | 1.32 | 3.23 | 0.79 | 3.23 | 3.59 | 0.36 | 3.66 | 0.43 | 3.41 | 0.18 |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 2.02 | 2.72 | 0.7 | 3.33 | 1.31 | 2.72 | 0.7 | 1.69 | 3.49 | 1.8 | 3.94 | 2.25 | 1.96 | 0.27 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.39 | 4.5 | 1.11 | 4.27 | 0.88 | 3.91 | 0.52 | 6.75 | 6.12 | -0.63 | 5.99 | -0.76 | 5.69 | -1.06 |
Carlos Carrasco is a tough one. His BABIP is a little high, but not outrageous considering the defense. His 69.8 LOB% is a little low, but not really out of range and his 11.9 HR/FB is a bit high, but also not really out of range. These things could all stay the same or they could pull closer to average and end up with an ERA closer to what his someone with his talent (22.0 K-BB%) would suggest. His tendencies and circumstances probably won’t get him below three, but something closer to three than four the rest of the way certainly wouldn’t be surprising.
Chris Archer has a misleading ERA over the last 30 days. He allowed nine runs in a single start against Kansas City, but has been otherwise great in three starts since.
Chris Sale has a 27.4 K-BB% this season, but a .323 BABIP despite an elite Z-Contact% and an otherwise normal IFFB% and LD%. Sale has a .291 career BABIP and has generated a lot of weak contact this season, but the defense has been bad. There might not be much he can do here.
Justin Verlander has a much improved 18.7 K-BB% in July, but just a 64.3 LOB%. Although we can’t hold him to his career standards any longer, his .273 BABIP, though low for his defense, would have matched his career rate before two years ago.
Marco Estrada has a career .272 BABIP that’s more in line with what his defense allows, but the defense might be better than what he’s dealt with in the past. Even with his below average IFFB% this season, he still generates a lot of pop ups because he has just a 32.4 GB%. He’s also still generating an elite Z-Contact% despite a drop in his K%, but we mentioned a potential rebound there already. The 7.2 HR/FB is new and probably not very sustainable for a pitcher with an 11.2 career HR/FB in a park like Toronto.
Masahiro Tanaka has a tremendous problem with HRs at home that he might not be able to solve. He’s allowed five in his last two home starts. The .253 BABIP is interesting with otherwise normal indicators and an 18.9 LD%. He had a .299 BABIP last year, so I’d be a bit concerned and expect his ERA to remain closer to his FIP.
Matt Shoemaker – As mentioned, he’s had only three starts over the last month and stranded 92.2% of his runners with a 17.7 K-BB%. The only HR he allowed was in a relief appearance in Seattle in which he faced just four batters strangely enough.
Patrick Corbin – I’m more willing to buy into K% and SwStr%, which he has more control over and which also stabilize sooner than his .254 BABIP and 87.0 LOB% that’s been countered by an equally unsustainable 20.0 HR/FB through five starts.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.297 | 0.332 | 0.035 | 9.5% | 90.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.293 | 0.302 | 0.009 | 9.1% | 89.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.281 | 0.285 | 0.004 | 9.4% | 86.4% |
| Brad Hand | FLA | 0.289 | 0.338 | 0.049 | 4.9% | 89.2% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.301 | 0.324 | 0.023 | 5.9% | 84.2% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.279 | 0.281 | 0.002 | 8.0% | 83.8% |
| Chris Bassitt | OAK | 0.283 | 0.254 | -0.029 | 11.8% | 89.6% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.317 | 0.323 | 0.006 | 9.0% | 76.4% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.281 | 0.292 | 0.011 | 17.0% | 87.9% |
| Henry Owens | BOS | 0.306 | ||||
| J.A. Happ | PIT | 0.302 | 0.319 | 0.017 | 13.7% | 88.5% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.292 | 0.280 | -0.012 | 7.4% | 87.9% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.273 | -0.014 | 5.7% | 89.6% |
| Jerome Williams | PHI | 0.318 | 0.344 | 0.026 | 8.4% | 91.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.285 | -0.02 | 10.0% | 86.8% |
| John Lackey | STL | 0.290 | 0.283 | -0.007 | 12.1% | 89.9% |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.315 | ||||
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.283 | 0.297 | 0.014 | 6.1% | 92.9% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.302 | 0.273 | -0.029 | 10.0% | 85.8% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.285 | 0.252 | -0.033 | 9.2% | 80.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.300 | 0.254 | -0.046 | 9.3% | 86.9% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.280 | 0.284 | 0.004 | 9.6% | 88.4% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.308 | 0.251 | -0.057 | 15.0% | 79.9% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | BAL | 0.288 | 0.281 | -0.007 | 10.3% | 87.0% |
| Dan Straily | HOU | 0.281 | 0.276 | -0.005 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.291 | 0.254 | -0.037 | 8.0% | 87.6% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.295 | 0.298 | 0.003 | 11.5% | 92.1% |
| Shelby Miller | ATL | 0.306 | 0.276 | -0.03 | 7.3% | 86.9% |
| Vidal Nuno | SEA | 0.291 | 0.283 | -0.008 | 7.0% | 87.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.295 | 0.279 | -0.016 | 6.5% | 89.7% |
Alex Wood – Perhaps the biggest gain from this trade will be in the BABIP department. He gains 10 points in defense, which probably still won’t get him under .300 with his particular profile, but should help some.
Max Scherzer has dominant indicators and is quite deserving of his low BABIP. He’s on pace to generate nearly 40 pop ups this year and even Ian Desmond can catch one of those. The Washington defense would be the only thing holding him back.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Matt Shoemaker (6t) is very moderately priced. You can’t get more middle of the board than this. He’s shown great signs over his last two starts and has slowly seemed to regain his rookie form after a very rough start to the season. Cleveland is a pretty neutral matchup, but turns into a good one with the park adjustment. They don’t strike out a lot, but shouldn’t hurt him too much and haven’t hit for a ton of power this year and just traded away perhaps their top power bat in Brandon Moss. In addition, one of their other top hitters (Jason Kipnis) just hit the DL.
Carlos Carrasco (1) – I know Chris Sale is pitching today, but I’m going out on a limb and calling him my top guy. Despite projecting several pitchers with a higher K% tonight, he has a better park adjusted matchup than most of those pitchers. Strikeout rate might be the most important thing on some sites, but the opposition and environment matter too along with cost and his price tag is a bit lower than the other elite guys.
Patrick Corbin (6t) – You have to be careful here and realize that Washington has faced a lot of tough pitching since the All-Star break, but Zachary Godley dominated them last night and Corbin has been a tough pitcher since returning. He’s missing more bats than he did before the surgery. Unfortunately, his price has already increased on DraftKings though.
Value Tier Two
Jon Niese may not have a high ceiling because he doesn’t miss a lot of bats, but he keeps the ball on the ground and is in a very good spot at a low price. FanDuel might be the exception here where he’s more in the middle.
Jake Arrieta (3t) – This is where we start getting into the more aggressively priced pitchers, who all seem flawed in at least one way tonight, whether it’s cost or matchup or park or their own performance or all of those things. For him, it’s simply cost. He’s proven himself to be one of the top pitchers in the league over the last two seasons, but is now priced as one.
Chris Archer (3t) – The flaw here is not on his end, but in a suddenly red hot White Sox offense in a tough park. I still project him for the #3 strikeout rate tonight and another strong performance, but both he and Arrieta are priced among the elite tonight.
Chris Sale (2) doesn’t look like he costs a fortune because of Max Scherzer, but this price tag is up there considering he stopped striking out the world in July. I still project him as my top K% tonight against a Tampa Bay team that will strike out more than average, but also hit LHP well.
Vidal Nuno gets slapped with the minimum price tag in Colorado which you’d think he deserves at first look. However, considering how bad the Rockies have been against LHP even with Tulo, it makes you wonder if pitchers from that side are worth a shot in GPPs for the rest of the season, even in Colorado.
Value Tier Three
Masahiro Tanaka (8) – If you’re willing to accept more risk to your upside in exchange for some salary relief, Tanaka is priced lower than the top guys mentioned above today, but that’s for good reason. He’s struggled mightily with the HR ball and the Red Sox don’t strike out a lot. His strikeout rate is down a bit too, but the encouraging news is that his SwStr% remains very strong.
Alex Wood – Philadelphia is not as great a matchup as they had been for most of the season anymore, but believe it or not, I believe Wood benefits from a slightly better defense here that helps his BABIP. He’s likely worth more than a mid-range price tag here if you’re looking for someone to pair with an Ace tonight.
Brad Hand is the dumpster diving special nobody is considering tonight, but the ERA is much worse than the indicators and the Mets, while revamped, still have many of the same bats that struggled on the road vs LHP all season long. It’s not entirely impossible that he keeps his team in the game for five innings.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Max Scherzer (3t) – Although he has the #2 projected K% here, the cost might be prohibitive.
Justin Verlander – I would be more inclined to boldly push him higher if not for the low upside matchup.
Miguel Gonzalez – This is a great environment for his skill set despite the low ceiling.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window