Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, August 12th
With the late afternoon start, all pitchers are listed today, but we’re only covering the night games. This is tough. Not because there are no good pitchers tonight, there are several of the costly types expected to have strong outings tonight. Beyond that though, there’s really nothing on the bottom of the board worth speculating on as you’ll see. So, happy Kershaw Day……..uh……I mean Danks Day of course. After all, who scored more fantasy points Friday?
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | -8.5 | 3.91 | 5. | 0.81 | 1.05 | 3.25 | TOR | 127 | 108 | 107 | ||||||
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -6.9 | 3.45 | 6.05 | 1.57 | 1.09 | 4.12 | 3.63 | ARI | 100 | 98 | 149 | 20.1% | 6.6% | 20.9% | 12.4% | 9.2% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 5.2 | 5.06 | 5. | 0.83 | 1.01 | 5.29 | 4.55 | BOS | 84 | 95 | 77 | 15.8% | 7.5% | 21.0% | 9.2% | 17.5% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 3 | 3.98 | 5.85 | 1.11 | 1.08 | 4.31 | 5.32 | CHW | 86 | 72 | 103 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -5.5 | 3.74 | 5.95 | 1.49 | 0.94 | 3.72 | 3.55 | CLE | 108 | 99 | 147 | 19.5% | 7.9% | 21.8% | 16.5% | 9.5% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 3.1 | 4.02 | 5.65 | 1.23 | 1.09 | 3.77 | 2.91 | PHI | 85 | 85 | 84 | 21.9% | 6.3% | 20.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 1.7 | 3.72 | 6.01 | 2.42 | 0.87 | 3.4 | 5.9 | HOU | 90 | 104 | 50 | 19.2% | 8.1% | 22.2% | 8.6% | 12.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 4.8 | 2.24 | 7.14 | 1.86 | 0.89 | 1.8 | 3.48 | WAS | 97 | 99 | 113 | 24.8% | 6.9% | 19.7% | 11.0% | 11.6% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 5.4 | 4.82 | 4.64 | 0.77 | 1.04 | 4.59 | 3.72 | KAN | 107 | 99 | 113 | 16.5% | 7.0% | 20.0% | 9.8% | 12.4% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -4.1 | 3.13 | 5.69 | 1 | 0.94 | 3.2 | 3.61 | NYY | 100 | 106 | 29 | 22.8% | 7.4% | 20.0% | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 10 | 4.26 | 5.91 | 1.48 | 1.04 | 4.38 | 5.14 | DET | 103 | 105 | 93 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 19.5% | 8.9% | 10.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -2.1 | 4.13 | 5.62 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 4.14 | 4.64 | FLA | 83 | 106 | 104 | 18.3% | 8.7% | 20.9% | 9.1% | 12.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -4.5 | 3.09 | 6.39 | 1.74 | 0.98 | 3.11 | 3.33 | STL | 102 | 100 | 70 | 22.6% | 7.5% | 23.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | -2.7 | 3.11 | 6.47 | 1.78 | 0.85 | 2.98 | 2.69 | BAL | 93 | 102 | 107 | 21.9% | 4.3% | 20.0% | 15.0% | 8.6% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 3.4 | 3.07 | 6.51 | 1.3 | 0.88 | 2.67 | 2.5 | COL | 84 | 100 | 55 | 25.1% | 4.8% | 21.7% | 11.5% | 9.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 9.6 | 3.71 | 5.66 | 0.79 | 0.94 | 3.61 | 3.12 | ATL | 82 | 88 | 78 | 20.8% | 6.3% | 20.3% | 6.6% | 9.6% |
| James Shields | SDG | -8.6 | 3.48 | 6.49 | 1.28 | 0.84 | 3.44 | 3.45 | CIN | 83 | 92 | 64 | 21.1% | 6.7% | 20.1% | 12.2% | 9.4% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.2 | 3.44 | 5.87 | 0.99 | 1.05 | 3.71 | 4.42 | MIL | 85 | 90 | 93 | 20.8% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 12.4% | 5.9% |
| John Danks | CHW | -6.3 | 4.58 | 5.94 | 1.04 | 1.08 | 4.44 | 4.06 | ANA | 93 | 93 | 87 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 18.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -4.5 | 3.49 | 6.3 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 3.27 | 3.73 | LOS | 119 | 114 | 133 | 20.2% | 7.0% | 23.1% | 11.8% | 13.4% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | -0.5 | 4.14 | 5.62 | 1.73 | 0.88 | 4.08 | 4.26 | NYM | 100 | 85 | 96 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 20.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 7.6 | 3.8 | 5.71 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 4.1 | 3.78 | SEA | 102 | 97 | 109 | 21.2% | 7.4% | 20.7% | 11.7% | 10.3% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -3.8 | 4.15 | 6.02 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 4.5 | 4.54 | CHC | 86 | 90 | 120 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 19.7% | 10.7% | 7.9% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | -3.9 | 4.83 | 5.78 | 0.85 | 0.94 | 4.51 | 5.18 | TAM | 98 | 92 | 119 | 17.1% | 7.0% | 24.0% | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 1.4 | 3.59 | 5.98 | 1.27 | 0.98 | 3.62 | 3.36 | PIT | 90 | 98 | 176 | 21.5% | 6.5% | 21.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.3 | 4.81 | 5.57 | 1.75 | 1.05 | 4.52 | 4.51 | TEX | 95 | 100 | 85 | 16.4% | 7.2% | 21.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 2.4 | 5.07 | 5.59 | 0.9 | 1.05 | 5 | 5.65 | MIN | 107 | 88 | 103 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 22.1% | 8.7% | 11.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -2 | 4.24 | 6.52 | 1.1 | 1.05 | 4.18 | 4.6 | OAK | 90 | 96 | 93 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 19.5% | 8.8% | 13.2% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 2.9 | 3.61 | 5.57 | 1.11 | 0.84 | 3.47 | 3.07 | SDG | 89 | 90 | 84 | 22.3% | 6.3% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | -1.7 | 4.27 | 6.14 | 1.64 | 0.87 | 4.11 | 4.24 | SFO | 112 | 115 | 98 | 15.8% | 6.8% | 20.9% | 10.8% | 6.4% |
C.C. Sabathia looked great in his last start, hitting corners and striking batters out as he occasionally has done this year. Unfortunately, we can’t count on that and we need an umpire who will cooperate, and he did despite Sabathia not believing so, but he can occasionally be effective still in the right spots. There’s a chance this could be such a spot in a park that’s tough on RH power (Cleveland has an 8.6 HR/FB at home and 7.8 HR/FB vs LHP), but I’m probably going to lean towards neutral in the bottom section and tell you to check the umpire assignment when available. Cleveland is a good home team with a strong walk rate and hot over the last week. They’re a tough matchup even with the park adjustment.
Clayton Kershaw – Yes! What? You need more than that? Yes, he did give up runs in his last start, four of them, and he tied for his lowest strikeout output of the season with just five for the third time and first since May. He has a 30.8 K-BB% at home since last season. That’s a 1.80 xFIP, which is ridiculous and unheard of. His 15.5 SwStr% this season wouldn’t even be a bottom five K% today. Washington is a neutral matchup with some power (12.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but park adjust down to a favorable matchup for Kershaw here.
Danny Salazar has improved both his strikeout and walk rates this year, good for a 21.2 K-BB%. His HR rate has climbed, but his GB rate has increased 10 points, giving it less impact. Contact authority has improved from an 18.6 Hard-Soft% to 7.1% this year as he’s seen his BABIP drop 74 points. While it’s difficult to say all of that is sustainable, they are substantial gains and real improvement into an All-Star profile. The Yankees are a slightly above average offense with some power (13.6 HR/FB) vs RHP, but ice cold (-10.3 Hard-Soft%, 23.2 K% over the last week) and park adjust down to a favorable matchup here.
Gerrit Cole pitches one of the most important games of the season for his team. His 19.3 K-BB% and 7.6 HR/FB may not make him a Cy Young contender this year, but he’s right there behind Kershaw and Scherzer in the next tier of studs in the NL. He’s allowed more than three ERs just once and pitched fewer than six innings just four times this year. St Louis is a neutral offense with little power at home (7.8 HR/FB) and has been underperforming over the last week. The matchup rates slightly in Cole’s favor after a small park adjustment.
Jacob deGrom has improved both his K and BB rates this year for a 21.9 K-BB% and is has been one of the top five pitchers in the NL this year. He’s struck out at least seven in 11 of his last 13 starts, allowing more than two ERs just once in that span and never more than three. He hasn’t had his best stuff either of the last two times out but still turned that into 14 Ks and just four ERs over 12.1 IP and 49 batters. He has just a 4.6 HR/FB at home since last season, which may not be sustainable, but he faces an offense with reduced power and output on the road with an 18.6 K-BB%. They’ve been cold over the last week (21.5 K-BB%) and park adjust down to one of the top matchups of the day.
Jake Odorizzi isn’t going very deep into games because that’s how Tampa Bay management operates, but he’s pitched between six and seven innings in 13 of his 18 starts, but no more since his 2nd start. The results have been a bit better than his estimators suggest, but he’s operating with a very respectable 14.4 K-BB% and doesn’t generate a ton of hard contact. At home, his K-BB jumps up to 18.2% since last season with just a 3.8 HR/FB, although he’s allowed a HR in each of his last two home starts. Atlanta may not strike out much (17.7% on the road, 17.1% vs RHP), but are the 3rd worst road offense and very unlikely to continue that HR streak (7.8 HR/FB on the road, 7.5 HR/FB and 4.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 4.0 HR/FB over the last week). They park adjust down to one of the top overall matchups tonight and potentially even better without their best hitter.
Jason Hammel has completed six innings in just two of his last 10 starts and none of his last five with a total of just 16 strikeouts over those five starts. He still has a 19.1 K-BB% for the season, but his K% has dipped below average over the last month. Though he’s allowed just a total of three runs, he’s been hit hard (37.9 Hard-Soft%) over his last two starts. He gets the benefit of a favorable matchup tonight against a poor Milwaukee offense on the road and vs RHP. They remain favorable even with a park adjustment in their favor.
Jordan Zimmermann pitches a very important game for his team and only has to face the top pitcher in the universe and one of the best home offenses vs RHP in the majors. He pitched well his last time out and his 19.8 K% over the last month is nearly average. He has a 3.7 BB% on the road since last season, but even with a park adjustment in his favor, the Dodgers remain a tough matchup tonight with a lot of power (13.8 HR/FB at home, 14.5 HR/FB vs RHP).
Jorge de la Rosa has been below average home or away, but does have a league average K% and the potential for even more if you believe his SwStr%. He has a 12.2 HR/FB on the road since last season and a 16.0 Hard-Soft% overall this year, but the Mets are a well below average team vs LHP (24.1 K%) and very favorable park adjusted matchup overall. If you’d like to point to the offensive upgrades the Mets have made (Cespedes, Uribe, Johnson) as potentially changing that, realize that they have all been below average hitters since the trade.
Michael Wacha has not allowed a run in either of his last two starts, striking out 13 of 53 batters. His 14.8 K-BB% this season nearly matches his 14.1 K-BB% at home since last season. Like many Cardinal pitchers, he has a lot of success keeping the ball in the park at home (6.6 HR/FB since last year). Pittsburgh is a below average road team (22.8 K%), but neutral vs RHP and would have rated as a decent park adjusted matchup until about a week ago. Since then, they have been the hottest offense in baseball (24.3 HR/FB, 19.3 Hard-Soft%) and represent one of the toughest matchups tonight in a nearly neutral run environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
R.A. Dickey (.255 BABIP – 73.8 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) – Knuckleballs don’t generally conform to the same BABIP rules and he hasn’t had a rate above .280 since 2009, but this would be his lowest. More importantly, his K% combined with Oakland’s low strikeout rate vs RHP (17.8%) leave us with a fairly low projectable ceiling tonight even though he’s been pitching well and deep into games tonight. If forced to though, he’d be the one guy I’d consider from this or the next list.
Andrew Heaney (.258 BABIP – 85.1 LOB% – 8.1 HR/FB) – The Angels do a good job defensively in limiting hits on balls in play, but he generates a lot of fly balls without a lot of pop ups. That could be dangerous in some less forgiving parks and may not be a profile to pay much for tonight.
Edinson Volquez (.271 BABIP – 75.3 LOB% – 7.2 HR/FB) – I didn’t italicize any of the stats even though his ERA is well below his estimators because I’ve previously mentioned that he’s in a unique environment where he may be able to maintain some of the things he’s done this year (and also, 12.7% of his runs are unearned this year), especially at home in certain spots. Tonight, against Detroit, may not be one of those enviable spots worth paying for.
Nick Martinez (.283 BABIP – 74.3 LOB% – 9.8 HR/FB) – To be honest, aside from 13.6% of his runs being unearned, I have no idea how he turns his 4.8 K-BB% into an ERA below four. Nothing else seems that far out of line despite a 23.6 LD% and 16.6 Hard-Soft%. This guy should be getting hammered, but he’s not for some inconceivable reason.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
John Danks – His ERA and estimators remain well above four somehow. It remains a mystery as he seems to always be shutting down the middle of the other team’s order. He faces the Angels tonight and I can remember my Danks frustration starting last year when he struck out Mike Trout 17 times and added a pop up, but you know how these legends grow as time passes. Maybe it was just three strikeouts or something, but just as painful.
Matthew Wisler – Not all pitching prospects show up in the majors breathing fire.
Aaron Brooks pitched two-thirds of an inning on the road in Toronto last year and allowed seven runs and three walks without a strikeout. It’s his only major league outing on the road and it was so bad that I had to delete from the records in order to not obscure the rest of the main chart today. It was so bad that the numbers didn’t fit. I expect him to have an ERA below 20 today.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 17.9% | 4.2% | Road | L14 Days | 22.6% | 1.9% | ||
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 21.0% | 5.0% | Road | 21.4% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 11.1% | 7.4% | Home | 13.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 17.1% | 4.6% | Road | 16.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 20.1% | 6.7% | Road | 19.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 18.8% | 7.2% | Home | 19.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 8.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 18.5% | 7.3% | Home | 19.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 31.5% | 4.8% | Home | 34.5% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 5.6% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 16.9% | 10.1% | Road | 19.1% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 2.2% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.2% | 7.3% | Home | 26.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.5% | 8.8% | Home | 16.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 19.7% | 8.4% | Road | 19.3% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.7% | 6.3% | Road | 25.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 8.5% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 21.0% | 3.7% | Home | 20.3% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 22.4% | 2.4% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 25.9% | 6.1% | Home | 26.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 2.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 22.7% | 7.5% | Home | 25.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 4.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.1% | 6.2% | Home | 22.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 3.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.7% | 5.7% | Home | 20.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 9.8% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.1% | 7.6% | Home | 17.1% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 20.4% | 4.0% | Road | 22.2% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 5.3% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.5% | 9.4% | Road | 18.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 3.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.5% | 7.4% | Road | 19.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 18.0% | 7.6% | Road | 14.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 14.0% | 7.0% | Road | 15.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 21.9% | 6.8% | Home | 20.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 5.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 12.2% | 8.7% | Home | 13.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 10.8% | 5.4% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 13.0% | 8.8% | Road | 12.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 10.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 17.9% | 7.8% | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 15.3% | 5.9% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 22.8% | 6.9% | Road | 22.8% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 6.4% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 14.6% | 6.7% | Road | 14.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 12.2% | 4.1% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.1% | 9.7% | RH | 18.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.3% | 8.3% | RH | 20.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 17.5% | 7.8% | LH | 19.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 6.8% | LH | 21.6% | 5.6% | L7Days | 16.1% | 7.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.1% | 9.3% | LH | 19.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.1% | 8.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.7% | 5.6% | RH | 19.4% | 5.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 4.1% |
| Astros | Road | 23.2% | 7.2% | RH | 24.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Road | 21.9% | 8.0% | LH | 21.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Home | 14.5% | 6.1% | LH | 14.9% | 5.4% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.1% | RH | 19.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.2% | 7.5% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | RH | 19.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 6.8% | LH | 21.2% | 6.7% | L7Days | 14.5% | 10.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.5% | 8.5% | RH | 18.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.5% | 6.3% | RH | 22.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 4.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 5.6% | RH | 20.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 25.2% | 3.7% |
| Braves | Road | 17.7% | 6.7% | RH | 17.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.5% | 5.2% |
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 7.3% | RH | 18.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.1% | 5.9% | RH | 20.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 7.2% | LH | 19.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.0% | 8.6% | RH | 20.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.2% |
| Mets | Home | 20.0% | 8.4% | LH | 24.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 7.9% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 9.4% | RH | 24.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.8% | 7.2% | RH | 21.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.8% | 6.5% | RH | 20.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 22.1% | 7.0% | RH | 19.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 5.7% |
| Twins | Home | 18.8% | 6.8% | RH | 20.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 6.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.2% | 7.8% | RH | 17.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.7% | 9.0% |
| Padres | Home | 22.9% | 6.3% | RH | 21.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.0% |
| Giants | Home | 17.7% | 7.3% | RH | 17.7% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.9% | 7.6% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | Athletics | 20.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | Road | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.6% | 11.1% | |||
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 18.1% | 17.4% | 8.7% | Road | 15.8% | 14.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Adam Conley | Marlins | 23.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | Home | 24.1% | 7.7% | 30.8% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | 19.7% | 11.6% | 7.4% | Road | 22.9% | 12.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 22.9% | 17.4% | 8.9% | Road | 20.2% | 20.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 23.6% | 12.1% | 8.6% | Home | 22.0% | 10.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Heston | Giants | 22.4% | 7.5% | 12.9% | Home | 22.5% | 2.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.2% | Home | 20.3% | 10.0% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | 19.2% | 10.5% | 12.3% | Road | 20.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 21.8% | 12.0% | 9.5% | Home | 22.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 19.0% | 9.4% | 6.3% | Home | 17.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 6.3% | 18.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 22.7% | 12.0% | 16.0% | Road | 23.2% | 9.7% | 19.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | Road | 20.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | 20.1% | 13.9% | 8.5% | Home | 18.9% | 17.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 21.8% | 7.3% | 8.9% | Home | 24.4% | 4.6% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | 21.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | Home | 19.7% | 3.8% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.8% | Home | 22.8% | 11.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 21.1% | 15.8% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 21.9% | 11.2% | 6.1% | Home | 21.1% | 11.2% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.4% | 10.3% | 8.1% | Home | 19.1% | 9.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.9% | 7.0% | 12.6% | Road | 24.1% | 9.4% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 18.9% | 13.3% | 7.2% | Road | 18.8% | 12.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 21.3% | 7.6% | 12.7% | Road | 20.2% | 9.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | 21.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wisler | Braves | 24.3% | 9.9% | 15.5% | Road | 27.7% | 13.5% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 20.0% | 6.7% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 20.9% | 6.8% | 9.6% | Home | 20.7% | 6.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 13.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | Home | 21.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | 21.5% | 8.7% | 11.0% | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.1% | 10.7% | 12.7% | Home | 20.5% | 12.6% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 3.2% | 25.8% |
| Raisel Iglesias | Reds | 22.9% | 8.9% | 10.7% | Road | 30.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 22.7% | 11.0% | 7.3% | Road | 24.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.4% | 15.3% | 14.2% | RH | 18.7% | 14.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 20.9% | 21.6% | 11.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.0% | 10.3% | 8.0% | RH | 21.6% | 10.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | LH | 20.6% | 10.5% | 10.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.3% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.4% | 11.7% | 9.4% | LH | 21.6% | 8.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 20.9% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| Indians | Home | 23.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | LH | 23.2% | 7.7% | 6.1% | L7Days | 28.0% | 11.3% | 13.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.6% | 7.2% | 9.0% | RH | 22.3% | 8.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.0% | 12.7% | 6.3% |
| Astros | Road | 21.7% | 11.0% | 11.7% | RH | 20.1% | 15.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 20.1% | 6.5% | 17.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.4% | 13.3% | 10.0% | LH | 20.3% | 12.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.0% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Home | 21.3% | 7.7% | 9.0% | LH | 23.5% | 6.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.9% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.2% | 12.0% | 8.4% | RH | 21.3% | 13.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.0% | 9.3% | 24.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 11.7% | 7.3% | RH | 21.7% | 10.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.8% | 13.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.4% | 9.0% | 8.5% | LH | 21.0% | 13.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 1.9% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | RH | 22.5% | 9.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 21.1% | 12.1% | 10.9% | RH | 20.9% | 14.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.1% | 19.0% | 8.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.4% | 12.8% | 9.5% | RH | 21.5% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.6% | 12.9% | 11.3% |
| Braves | Road | 22.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | RH | 22.1% | 7.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.8% | 9.5% | 9.2% | RH | 20.8% | 10.2% | 9.0% | L7Days | 15.2% | 9.5% | 4.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.4% | 9.1% | 7.6% | RH | 21.0% | 10.0% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.5% | 16.3% | 7.0% |
| Angels | Road | 18.0% | 11.0% | 9.2% | LH | 18.2% | 10.6% | 10.6% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 13.8% | 8.8% | RH | 21.7% | 14.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.9% | 10.0% | 17.1% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.1% | 12.1% | LH | 21.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.2% | 13.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 12.0% | 7.7% | RH | 20.3% | 12.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 18.2% | 16.1% | 5.4% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.7% | 9.5% | 10.8% | RH | 20.2% | 10.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.3% | 5.6% |
| Rays | Home | 20.7% | 10.5% | 9.1% | RH | 21.3% | 9.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.4% | 12.5% | 3.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.4% | 9.3% | 7.9% | RH | 20.9% | 10.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 25.5% | 24.3% | 2.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.0% | 11.7% | 8.6% | RH | 19.0% | 10.9% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.8% | 2.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | RH | 20.7% | 9.4% | 12.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.6% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 19.9% | 10.8% | 7.2% | RH | 19.6% | 10.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Giants | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | RH | 21.5% | 10.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 17.4% | 10.3% | 8.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 21.1% | 10.8% | 1.95 | 22.6% | 10.4% | 2.17 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.14 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 2.14 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 11.1% | 6.1% | 1.82 | 13.3% | 8.6% | 1.55 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 17.8% | 9.5% | 1.87 | 15.1% | 9.0% | 1.68 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.6% | 9.0% | 2.18 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 2.23 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 16.0% | 7.1% | 2.25 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 2.57 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 18.6% | 8.8% | 2.11 | 17.4% | 9.6% | 1.81 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 32.8% | 15.5% | 2.12 | 33.6% | 15.1% | 2.23 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 17.6% | 8.9% | 1.98 | 17.8% | 9.0% | 1.98 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 28.1% | 12.3% | 2.28 | 26.2% | 9.2% | 2.85 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.79 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.76 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 19.7% | 8.3% | 2.37 | 15.8% | 7.6% | 2.08 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 24.9% | 10.3% | 2.42 | 26.2% | 12.8% | 2.05 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 20.0% | 9.6% | 2.08 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.16 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 26.4% | 11.8% | 2.24 | 31.3% | 12.4% | 2.52 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 20.6% | 9.7% | 2.12 | 20.7% | 8.7% | 2.38 |
| James Shields | SDG | 26.0% | 12.9% | 2.02 | 23.6% | 10.5% | 2.25 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 24.3% | 10.6% | 2.29 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 1.99 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 2.28 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 18.0% | 7.6% | 2.37 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 2.30 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 20.7% | 11.7% | 1.77 | 17.1% | 12.4% | 1.38 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 19.6% | 10.3% | 1.90 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.85 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 16.0% | 7.8% | 2.05 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 2.38 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 14.0% | 7.2% | 1.94 | 10.4% | 6.3% | 1.65 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 20.7% | 10.3% | 2.01 | 26.0% | 11.9% | 2.18 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.1% | 5.2% | 2.13 | 8.9% | 4.7% | 1.89 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.4% | 7.1% | 1.89 | 12.9% | 5.7% | 2.26 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.7% | 9.2% | 1.60 | 16.6% | 9.2% | 1.80 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 22.8% | 10.8% | 2.11 | 25.7% | 11.0% | 2.34 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 13.3% | 6.4% | 2.08 | 9.6% | 6.1% | 1.57 |
There’s not much to talk about here today so here are the six highest SwStr rates on record in the Pitchf/x era (2002):
1 – Randy Johnson 16.4% (2002)
2 – Johan Santana 15.8% (2004)
3 – Clayton Kershaw 15.5% (2015)
4 – Chris Sale 15.2% (2015)
5 – Kerry Wood 15.2% (2003)
6 – Max Scherzer 15.0% (2015)
Danny Salazar has seen a drop in his SwStr% since the break that’s gone unnoticed in his K%, but his last two starts are only the 2nd time he’s had back to back single digit SwStr% efforts this year and he hasn’t hit his season rate in any of his last four starts. His velocity has been inconsistent from start to start all season, so it’s difficult to tell if that’s the issue. It’s nothing to panic about yet, but something to watch.
Jorge de la Rosa has seen his K% dip, but his SwStr% increase over the last month. In fact, his SwStr% has been in double digits in each of his last five starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 2.41 | 3.38 | 0.97 | 3.63 | 1.22 | 2.35 | -0.06 | 1.26 | 3.25 | 1.99 | 3.42 | 2.16 | 2.54 | 1.28 |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.65 | 3.45 | -0.2 | 3.57 | -0.08 | 4.36 | 0.71 | 3.65 | 3.45 | -0.2 | 3.57 | -0.08 | 4.36 | 0.71 |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 4.05 | 5.06 | 1.01 | 5.24 | 1.19 | 5.27 | 1.22 | 4.91 | 4.55 | -0.36 | 5.17 | 0.26 | 5.01 | 0.1 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 2.45 | 3.94 | 1.49 | 4 | 1.55 | 3.55 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 4.34 | 1.44 | 4.52 | 1.62 | 3.81 | 0.91 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.34 | 3.7 | -1.64 | 3.64 | -1.7 | 4.71 | -0.63 | 4.76 | 3.57 | -1.19 | 3.57 | -1.19 | 5.44 | 0.68 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 4.1 | 4.26 | 0.16 | 4.16 | 0.06 | 4.11 | 0.01 | 5.91 | 3.23 | -2.68 | 3.15 | -2.76 | 2.35 | -3.56 |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 3.48 | 3.69 | 0.21 | 3.65 | 0.17 | 3.37 | -0.11 | 3.34 | 4.01 | 0.67 | 3.87 | 0.53 | 3.3 | -0.04 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.51 | 2.21 | -0.3 | 2.08 | -0.43 | 2.24 | -0.27 | 1.16 | 1.9 | 0.74 | 1.97 | 0.81 | 1.52 | 0.36 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.24 | 4.61 | 0.37 | 4.9 | 0.66 | 4.81 | 0.57 | 5.06 | 3.72 | -1.34 | 3.75 | -1.31 | 4.32 | -0.74 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.38 | 3.02 | -0.36 | 3.1 | -0.28 | 3.46 | 0.08 | 2.03 | 3.42 | 1.39 | 3.48 | 1.45 | 3.66 | 1.63 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.11 | 4.4 | 1.29 | 4.29 | 1.18 | 3.82 | 0.71 | 2.35 | 4.82 | 2.47 | 4.59 | 2.24 | 3.86 | 1.51 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.17 | 4.13 | -0.04 | 4.08 | -0.09 | 4.22 | 0.05 | 5.66 | 4.87 | -0.79 | 4.83 | -0.83 | 5.76 | 0.1 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.39 | 3.03 | 0.64 | 3 | 0.61 | 2.69 | 0.3 | 2.77 | 2.88 | 0.11 | 3.03 | 0.26 | 2.33 | -0.44 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 4.41 | 3.28 | -1.13 | 3.24 | -1.17 | 4.43 | 0.02 | 3.71 | 2.6 | -1.11 | 2.68 | -1.03 | 2.86 | -0.85 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 2.13 | 2.96 | 0.83 | 2.96 | 0.83 | 2.65 | 0.52 | 2.08 | 2.32 | 0.24 | 2.4 | 0.32 | 2.64 | 0.56 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 2.77 | 3.82 | 1.05 | 3.84 | 1.07 | 3.32 | 0.55 | 4.18 | 4.08 | -0.1 | 4.17 | -0.01 | 4.35 | 0.17 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.75 | 3.36 | -0.39 | 3.35 | -0.4 | 4.21 | 0.46 | 2.73 | 3.55 | 0.82 | 3.35 | 0.62 | 4.35 | 1.62 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.17 | 3.32 | 0.15 | 3.41 | 0.24 | 3.36 | 0.19 | 4.91 | 4.58 | -0.33 | 4.63 | -0.28 | 4.9 | -0.01 |
| John Danks | CHW | 4.79 | 4.46 | -0.33 | 4.55 | -0.24 | 4.21 | -0.58 | 3.14 | 4.45 | 1.31 | 4.69 | 1.55 | 3.07 | -0.07 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.44 | 3.92 | 0.48 | 3.87 | 0.43 | 3.33 | -0.11 | 4.25 | 3.66 | -0.59 | 3.57 | -0.68 | 3.84 | -0.41 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 4.85 | 4.14 | -0.71 | 3.93 | -0.92 | 4.38 | -0.47 | 6.26 | 4.16 | -2.1 | 3.98 | -2.28 | 4.64 | -1.62 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.56 | 3.87 | -0.69 | 4.16 | -0.4 | 4.06 | -0.5 | 4.1 | 3.99 | -0.11 | 3.9 | -0.2 | 4.2 | 0.1 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 4.95 | 4.46 | -0.49 | 4.29 | -0.66 | 4.81 | -0.14 | 2.55 | 4.52 | 1.97 | 4.34 | 1.79 | 4.07 | 1.52 |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 4.85 | 4.83 | -0.02 | 4.79 | -0.06 | 4.6 | -0.25 | 7.04 | 5.27 | -1.77 | 5.16 | -1.88 | 5.32 | -1.72 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.92 | 3.64 | 0.72 | 3.52 | 0.6 | 3.18 | 0.26 | 2.88 | 3.42 | 0.54 | 3.51 | 0.63 | 3.54 | 0.66 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4.06 | 4.59 | 0.53 | 4.48 | 0.42 | 4.03 | -0.03 | 4.3 | 4.75 | 0.45 | 4.59 | 0.29 | 3.8 | -0.5 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 3.91 | 4.93 | 1.02 | 4.98 | 1.07 | 4.82 | 0.91 | 6.2 | 5.34 | -0.86 | 5.22 | -0.98 | 5.46 | -0.74 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 3.93 | 4.74 | 0.81 | 4.72 | 0.79 | 4.61 | 0.68 | 0.99 | 4.23 | 3.24 | 4.33 | 3.34 | 2.85 | 1.86 |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 4.72 | 3.6 | -1.12 | 3.79 | -0.93 | 3.51 | -1.21 | 3.33 | 3.26 | -0.07 | 3.54 | 0.21 | 3.8 | 0.47 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 4.46 | 4.25 | -0.21 | 3.87 | -0.59 | 4.35 | -0.11 | 3.65 | 4.78 | 1.13 | 4.39 | 0.74 | 5.01 | 1.36 |
C.C. Sabathia is still missing enough bats to be effective, but gets hammered when forced to come over the plate with a diminished fastball. We see that in a .326 BABIP and 18.9 HR/FB. He has a normal 21.5 LD%, but 30.7 Hard% on contact. He’s actually allowed 16 of his 24 HRs on the road this year and I have no answer for that.
Jacob deGrom is doing some great things, but his BABIP has not dipped into the realm of unsustainability. The Mets defense positions itself well if nothing else and his other indicators and batted ball profile are close to average, but with nothing suggesting this kind of suppression skill. His strand rate has crept just over 80% as well.
Jake Odorizzi has turned slightly above average K and BB numbers into a great ERA due to a low, but sustainable BABIP due to some favorable circumstances (defense, park). His 79.9 LOB% may not be as maintainable but is certainly helped by his low BABIP and HR rate (7.3 HR/FB). The HR rate is just below his 8.2 career rate so far and is not that outrageous in a great park. All of this suggest an ERA slightly higher, but closer to his FIP the rest of the way.
Jorge de la Rosa has a 15.1 HR/FB and thus a higher FIP and ERA. That reduces to a more standard 9.3 HR/FB and 3.19 ERA well below his 3.77 FIP and 3.94 xFIP on the road this year.
Michael Wacha benefits from a .264 BABIP, but has some positive indicators and a BABIP suppressing defense as evidenced by the chart below. His 8.1 HR/FB is about par for the course in St Louis, keeping his ERA closer to his FIP.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Brooks | OAK | 0.281 | 0.259 | -0.022 | 7.7% | 86.4% |
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.322 | 0.250 | -0.072 | 8.7% | 87.2% |
| Adam Conley | FLA | 0.291 | 0.195 | -0.096 | 22.2% | 90.3% |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.280 | 0.258 | -0.022 | 6.5% | 89.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.03 | 7.9% | 89.7% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.290 | 0.292 | 0.002 | 7.9% | 88.6% |
| Chris Heston | SFO | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 13.3% | 87.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.302 | 0.292 | -0.01 | 12.9% | 77.8% |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.304 | 0.304 | 0 | 14.6% | 88.1% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.296 | 0.269 | -0.027 | 6.1% | 81.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.278 | 0.271 | -0.007 | 5.1% | 86.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.306 | 0.267 | -0.039 | 16.0% | 87.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.306 | 0.308 | 0.002 | 6.7% | 88.8% |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | 0.291 | 0.269 | -0.022 | 7.0% | 92.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.282 | 0.250 | -0.032 | 9.9% | 85.9% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.278 | 0.264 | -0.014 | 8.9% | 86.2% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.295 | 0.305 | 0.01 | 11.5% | 83.6% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.290 | 0.267 | -0.023 | 3.8% | 86.7% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.317 | 0.315 | -0.002 | 9.6% | 86.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.307 | 0.311 | 0.004 | 12.3% | 90.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.314 | 0.290 | -0.024 | 4.7% | 85.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.289 | 0.278 | -0.011 | 17.6% | 86.7% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.302 | 0.306 | 0.004 | 12.4% | 90.6% |
| Matthew Wisler | ATL | 0.305 | 0.314 | 0.009 | 15.5% | 90.2% |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.287 | 0.264 | -0.023 | 11.4% | 84.8% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.300 | 0.321 | 0.021 | 5.8% | 93.2% |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.292 | 0.283 | -0.009 | 11.4% | 91.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.280 | 0.255 | -0.025 | 14.2% | 82.9% |
| Raisel Iglesias | CIN | 0.281 | 0.320 | 0.039 | 10.7% | 88.3% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 0.281 | 0.296 | 0.015 | 6.9% | 90.6% |
Danny Salazar – Of all the improvements we mentioned from him at the top, this may be the least sustainable, but the Cleveland defense has improved along with his contact authority and line drive rates. He doesn’t generate a lot of pop ups, but has an elite zone contact rate, so who knows?
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
This is probably the toughest value section I’ve had to write since incorporating this little process into the article because there aren’t really any greatly valuable low priced options tonight. It’s not easy to dip below the top pitchers tonight and expect even the potential for a lot of upside in addition to the risk.
Jacob deGrom (2) has the best matchup of the stud pitchers tonight and has lower ERA estimators than any mortal pitcher on the board tonight over the last month. It’s going to be very difficult to afford Kershaw on two pitcher sites tonight, so I have no problem confidently transitioning down a small step here.
Clayton Kershaw (1) – I feel the need to repeat that his K-BB%, not just his K%, is above 30% at home since last season. Good luck fitting him into your lineup tonight.
Value Tier Two
Jake Odorizzi (5) may not be allowed to go past six innings and doesn’t have a lot of upside in his strikeout rate, but Atlanta is very unlikely to punish him.
Danny Salazar (3t) has seen a dip in his SwStr% over the last month that bears watching, but his overall numbers have been fantastic this season and not just his K%. The Yankees are never really a very favorable matchup for a RHP, but he’s catching them ice cold and on the road, which is about as good a time as ever.
Value Tier Three
Gerrit Cole (3t) doesn’t have the highest projected K rate or most favorable spot, but he has been a remarkably consistent and very good pitcher. You know you’re very likely to get an above average performance here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
C.C. Sabathia – With a favorable umpire assignment, or even just a neutral one, and low price, it may be necessary to bump him for tournament purposes tonight.
Jason Hammel – While I’d like to push him further up considering the matchup, he’s giving you nothing for over a month now.
Jorge de la Rosa
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.