Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Wednesday, September 30th
The last week of the regular season will not go quietly. As if the random whims of organizations concerning their pitchers at this point in the year aren’t enough to deal with, there were a season high three rainouts yesterday, giving us three doubleheaders today. It looks like we’re going to have to deal with nasty weather in the east for the rest of the week. Daily Fantasy Baseball players have our work cut out for us today.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | -4.4 | 5.1 | 5.22 | 0.85 | 1.01 | 5.78 | 3.83 | NYM | 99 | 99 | 142 | 17.1% | 6.8% | 22.4% | 14.3% | 9.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -6.8 | 3.91 | 6.18 | 1.53 | 0.84 | 3.15 | 4.55 | MIL | 85 | 90 | 74 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 22.8% | 9.8% | 8.2% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 1.6 | 4.06 | 5.83 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 3.73 | 3.75 | CHC | 94 | 97 | 49 | 20.7% | 6.2% | 19.7% | 9.9% | 6.5% |
| Barry Zito | OAK | -5.1 | 7.06 | 2. | 0.44 | 0.91 | 10.57 | 8.06 | ANA | 104 | 89 | 146 | 9.7% | 10.0% | 17.9% | 18.7% | 13.8% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | -4.3 | 4.18 | 5.74 | 1.71 | 1.09 | 4.28 | 3.3 | ARI | 96 | 95 | 62 | 21.2% | 8.1% | 22.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | -3.1 | 3.83 | 5.88 | 2.56 | 0.91 | 3.79 | 3.59 | STL | 92 | 102 | 135 | 20.3% | 7.9% | 21.3% | 15.8% | 9.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.8 | 4.03 | 5.56 | 1.21 | 1.09 | 3.74 | 1.74 | COL | 74 | 92 | 116 | 25.0% | 6.9% | 19.9% | 14.7% | 8.3% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 1.5 | 4.74 | 6.01 | 1.43 | 0.94 | 4.93 | 4.62 | MIN | 80 | 89 | 99 | 17.8% | 7.4% | 21.3% | 10.7% | 13.9% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 6.4 | 3.58 | 5.73 | 0.82 | 0.94 | 3.89 | 4.04 | FLA | 89 | 100 | 128 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 19.1% | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 6.9 | 4.3 | 6.08 | 1.46 | 1.08 | 4.18 | 4.05 | CHW | 87 | 91 | 82 | 20.4% | 8.4% | 22.6% | 12.9% | 6.5% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 2.9 | 3.63 | 6.46 | 1.87 | 0.91 | 3.57 | 3.96 | OAK | 93 | 97 | 100 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 18.3% | 11.8% | 8.4% |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.8 | 4.14 | 5.42 | 1.81 | 0.85 | 4.07 | 4.34 | HOU | 93 | 105 | 124 | 20.5% | 9.1% | 22.0% | 15.2% | 7.4% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 2.7 | 4.44 | 5.74 | 2.05 | 0.94 | 4.27 | 5.13 | TAM | 100 | 96 | 103 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 20.0% | 11.8% | 8.3% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.3 | 3.19 | 6.58 | 1.37 | 1.02 | 3.18 | 2.88 | CIN | 95 | 95 | 51 | 23.9% | 6.2% | 22.9% | 10.9% | 9.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -4.5 | 3.47 | 6.17 | 1.13 | 0.98 | 3.28 | 3.31 | ATL | 87 | 87 | 115 | 19.9% | 6.8% | 23.4% | 12.6% | 13.9% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -7 | 3.59 | 6.32 | 1.45 | 1.08 | 3.29 | 3.45 | KAN | 93 | 99 | 89 | 19.9% | 5.7% | 24.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.2 | 3.96 | 5.7 | 1.16 | 1.04 | 3.89 | 3.7 | TOR | 106 | 114 | 153 | 19.4% | 8.5% | 21.7% | 12.8% | 13.3% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.6 | 3.87 | 6. | 1.2 | 1.01 | 3.69 | 4.75 | PHI | 85 | 83 | 88 | 20.3% | 6.1% | 18.8% | 12.6% | 8.2% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -5.4 | 3.01 | 6.63 | 1.5 | 1.02 | 3.02 | 3.21 | BOS | 88 | 99 | 97 | 21.0% | 5.4% | 17.8% | 17.3% | 11.3% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 3.7 | 4.78 | 4.91 | 0.65 | 1.08 | 5.55 | 4.5 | TEX | 103 | 94 | 116 | 19.2% | 9.1% | 15.7% | 14.0% | 10.7% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 1.7 | 3.91 | 5.35 | 1.87 | 0.87 | 4.08 | 5.62 | SFO | 111 | 108 | 106 | 18.4% | 9.3% | 20.4% | 17.5% | 4.9% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 4.3 | 3.79 | 6.4 | 1.98 | 0.87 | 3.54 | 5.75 | LOS | 102 | 105 | 106 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 19.1% | 12.5% | 8.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3 | 4.82 | 5.48 | 1.81 | 0.94 | 4.78 | 3.37 | CLE | 110 | 97 | 89 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 20.8% | 10.1% | 9.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | -2.2 | 4.43 | 6.44 | 1.12 | 1.04 | 4.72 | 5.07 | BAL | 105 | 101 | 36 | 17.3% | 6.6% | 20.9% | 10.6% | 12.1% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.5 | 3.8 | 5.95 | 1.15 | 0.85 | 3.92 | 6.38 | SEA | 104 | 104 | 71 | 19.8% | 7.6% | 19.6% | 12.9% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 0.3 | 3.53 | 5.11 | 1.11 | 0.91 | 4.05 | 2.71 | PIT | 103 | 94 | 95 | 23.6% | 7.6% | 22.2% | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | -1.7 | 3.93 | 6.11 | 1.71 | 1.02 | 4.03 | 4.54 | NYY | 104 | 105 | 82 | 19.6% | 9.2% | 20.3% | 12.4% | 10.8% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.2 | 4.89 | 5.64 | 1.69 | 0.98 | 4.59 | 4.07 | WAS | 96 | 96 | 89 | 18.7% | 8.0% | 21.9% | 13.4% | 7.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 4.7 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 1.73 | 1.08 | 4.13 | 4.49 | DET | 104 | 99 | 123 | 18.9% | 7.9% | 24.1% | 10.8% | 5.8% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | -5.8 | 4.71 | 5.4 | 2.37 | 0.84 | 3.88 | 4.39 | SDG | 99 | 91 | 76 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 20.1% | 7.8% | 11.9% |
NOTE James Paxton is likely not starting for Seattle, but they still haven’t named a starter as of Wednesday morning, so we’ll leave him in there in order to get the opposing team’s stats.
Andrew Cashner has struggled this season and walked at least four in three of his last four starts, but at least he’s starting to miss some bats again over the last month and has two key things in his favor tonight. First, he has pitched better at home with a 17.3 K-BB% and 6.4 HR/FB since last season at Petco. His 19.1 K-BB% at home this year is nearly three times his 6.1% road mark. Secondly, he faces the Brewers in the top matchup of the night after park adjustments. They have a 15.3 K-BB% on the road and 24.9 K% over the last week.
Anthony DeSclafani was thought to have discovered a third pitch with his curveball and was running well for a while before allowing 12 runs over his last 10.2 innings with just six strikeouts. He did not allow a walk and only a single HR in two offensive environments, so there were some BABIP and strand issues at work with a fairly average 9.3 Hard-Soft%, so I think we may still be able to expect better. His 11.8 K-BB% on the season is just average and he faces an offense with some power, but still a below average one on the road and a cold one with a high strikeout tendency. The Cubs have a 24.9 K% on the road, 24.0 K% vs RHP, and 25.6 K% over the last week.
Charlie Morton has allowed six runs in fewer than five innings in each of his last two starts, the most recent of which was in Colorado. He has just a 10.0 K-BB%, but generates a lot of ground balls (57.4%), though he allows average contact authority (8.4 Hard-Soft%). A 15.3 HR/FB is more manageable with such a high ground ball rate. The Cardinals are below average on the road, but much better vs RHP than LHP (14.0 Hard-Soft%). They have been hitting the ball well over the last week (16.7 HR/FB), but are a slightly favorable matchup after an adjustment for the negative run environment.
Chase Anderson returned from a two-week layoff to strike out a season high 10 Dodgers in his last start. His numbers over the last month consist of just 13 innings, so there’s a lot of weirdness in there like nine ERs, four HRs, and 18 strikeouts. HRs have become a problem, as he’s allowed 15 over his last 13 starts, but has a league average 13.3 K-BB% at home since last season. The Rockies are the worst road offense in baseball (18.2 K-BB%) and below average vs RHP. They are a neutral opponent after an upward bump for run environment.
Drew Smyly has alternated shutout outings with ones where he’s allowed four or five runs the last eight times he’s taken the hill. I guess the bad news for the superstitious would be that his last outing was 6.1 shutout innings with seven strikeouts. He’s taken his strikeout rate to an elite level this season and has a 20.6 K-BB%. HRs have been an issue for him this season, as he’s allowed 11 in 11 starts, but has pitched only pitched four times at home and mostly in hitter’s parks, though he’s allowed four HRs in those four home starts. The Marlins have just a 12.2 K% over the last week, but just a 0.5 Hard-Soft% and a 5.1 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. They’re a slightly favorable matchup after park adjustment.
Garrett Richards has struck out six or more in five of his last six starts and finally has his K% up to league average and climbing into line with his SwStr% for the season, but his control has gone away with it, as he’s walked at least three in each of his last five starts. He has just an average 11.4 K-BB% on the season, but is able to generate some of the weakest contact in the league (1.2 Hard-Soft%), which has helped keep his BABIP below .280 over the last couple of seasons. Oakland strikes out at a below average rate, but will comply with the weak contact (5.8 Hard-Soft%). They area a very good park adjusted matchup.
Jon Lester has allowed two ERs or less in 15 of his last 19 starts, striking out at least six in 14 of them (seven HRs allowed). He has estimators very similar to last season despite an ERA a run higher with an 18.8 K-BB% just a bit lower. The biggest difference in his batted ball profile is a 7 point increase in GB% and has generated less than half the IFFBs (30 last year, just 12 this year) and that seems to have slightly pushed his BABIP just above .300. Cincinnati is a slightly below average offense at home and vs RHP, but with some power (13.5 HR/FB vs LHP). They are extremely cold over the last week (23.9 K-BB%, 1.7 Hard-Soft%) and are a favorable opponent with a small bump upward for run environment.
Jordan Zimmermann has been striking out batters at an above-average rate since the start of August and has an 18.7 K-BB% over the 2nd half of the season, which is in line with his number from last season and his line on the road since the start of last season (19.3 K-BB%). HRs have become more of an issue as the strikeout rate has risen though. He’s allowed 15 of his 24 HRs since the start of August. The Braves don’t strike out much, but have just a 7.7 HR/FB at home and vs RHP with a 4.6 Hard-Soft% vs righties. They’ve been hitting a bit better over the last week, but are still a favorable matchup.
Jose Quintana has quietly had another fine season, with a 15.4 K-BB% just above last year’s and a 16.7 K-BB% and 4.7 HR/FB at home, which has kept his ERA in line with estimators despite a .336 BABIP. He’s allowed a total of three ERs over his last four starts, going seven innings in three of them. Kansas City is a below average road offense, but has just a 15.1 K% vs LHP with very little power (7.8 HR/FB). Park adjustment makes them a slightly unfavorable matchup.
Logan Verrett gets his 3rd spot start of the season and probably his last, as it’s very unlikely he’ll be on the post-season roster, so they should let him air it out here. He’s gone just five innings in each of his last two starts, after eight innings in his first. One he was unreasonably pulled from after 63 pitches, while the last one may have been more performance related after a tough inning in which he allowed two HRs to Atlanta. He’s missed fewer bats in a starting capacity, striking out just six of his last 39 batters, but gets to face the Phillies, who are the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (and not very good at home either). They are a great matchup with little park adjustment necessary.
Masahiro Tanaka pitches for the first time since September 18th due to a hamstring issue and is said to have not restrictions, but we saw how a similar problem has affected Corey Kluber over his last few starts. It’s difficult to count out a guy who’s pitched well with a broken Tommy John the entire season though. HRs are an issue (17.9 HR/FB at home since last season), but he has a 20.8 K-BB% in Yankee Stadium since he’s come to the states. Boston doesn’t strike out much, but is a poor road offense and really just a neutral park adjusted matchup overall.
Mike Leake has allowed at least three ERs in 6.1 innings or less in five of his last six starts and has a total of five strikeouts over his last three starts. He has just a 10.8 K% over the last month. However, if the Dodgers put out their “We just clinched the division and partied all night” lineup, he may be worth a look. However, they are still playing for home field in the first round and have been to the party several times over the last few seasons, so it may still be business as usual.
Tyler Lyons is in an interesting spot tonight. It’s the 2nd game of a doubleheader with potentially questionable weather, but the Pirates are still playing for the division if they win the first game (and home field in the wild card if they don’t), so they’re not apt to sit any of their top bats in the 2nd game I’d think, except for Cervelli if he starts the first. Lyons hasn’t been great in spot starts (three ERs in less than six innings in five of seven), but usually brings the strikeouts and struck out five of 12 in long relief in his last appearance. The Pirates are a decent offense at home, but below average vs LHP (15.3 K-BB%) and adjust favorably in a pitcher’s park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized.
Edinson Volquez (.287 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – His HR rate and ERA have climbed up after allowing four HRs in his last three starts and none of these numbers are really out of line. He has just a 9.6 K-BB% and 15.1 Hard-Soft% and is normally either sufficiently or over-priced on the road.
Yovani Gallardo (.295 BABIP – 77.1 LOB% – 8.9 HR/FB) – Again, we’re at the point of the season where some of this stuff might be subtle, but his HR rate isn’t really in line with his career rate and his 6.4 K-BB% is exactly half his career rate. Since he struck out 10 on June 15th, he’s only reached five strikeouts once in 19 starts.
Cody Anderson (.248 BABIP – 76.7 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) – He does have two things in his favor that might suggest he’s better than his estimators, which you can find a few charts down below. One is a 7.9 SwStr% that is still below average, but doesn’t match up with a 12.4 K%. Second is he’s been able to induce a decent amount of weak contact (7.6 Hard-Soft%), but neither of those things can bring his estimators even halfway to his ERA.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Kevin Gausman faces Toronto, but has an above average K% and 3.2 Hard-Soft% at a low price, making him nearly worthy of consideration against most opponents, but this is, by far, the worst matchup of the day.
Chad Bettis does have a nifty SwStr%, but still has an xFIP above four on the road since last season and it’s not like Arizona is a pitcher’s park.
Zachary Davies has a league average SwStr% and is in a great spot tonight, but just doesn’t have anything else going for him. He’s struck out more than he’s walked in just two of his five starts.
Wade Miley has pitched better in September, but is in a tough spot.
Mike Bolsinger continues to be awful since his recall in four starts. Two of them were in terrible parks (Arizona, Colorado), but that doesn’t excuse the seven walks and just three strikeouts in those two starts.
Scott Kazmir seems to be once again wearing down late in the season and velocity is down a bit over his last three starts. Strikeouts in his last six starts looks like a countdown (six, five, three, four, two, one).
Jarred Cosart hasn’t allowed more than two ERs in five of his last six starts, but has lasted more than five innings in just one of them and has a 5.1 K-BB% on the season.
R.A. Dickey has a total of seven strikeouts over the last three starts.
Mike Pelfrey has struck out more than four batters just five times this year, but did tie a season-high with seven last time out.
Alec Asher allowed fewer than four ERs for the first time in his five starts last time out against Miami. He also tied his high with four strikeouts.
Barry Zito is still searching for his first strikeout. He’s faced 19 batters.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Phillies | 12.6% | 6.7% | Home | 12.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 4.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.5% | 7.2% | Home | 23.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 13.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 18.6% | 6.4% | Home | 18.9% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| Barry Zito | Athletics | 5.0% | 10.0% | Road | 0.0% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 10.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 17.6% | 8.2% | Road | 17.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 6.4% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 18.1% | 8.2% | Home | 17.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 19.2% | 7.0% | Home | 19.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 9.5% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 12.4% | 5.9% | Home | 13.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 8.6% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 23.2% | 6.9% | Home | 22.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 11.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.7% | 8.6% | Road | 18.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.5% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 21.7% | 8.1% | Home | 21.7% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 12.5% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 19.2% | 9.7% | Home | 18.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 12.9% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 15.2% | 9.8% | Road | 16.4% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 12.5% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 24.7% | 5.7% | Road | 24.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 27.2% | 4.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 21.5% | 4.2% | Road | 23.0% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 20.8% | 5.7% | Home | 22.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 19.8% | 7.3% | Home | 19.1% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 19.3% | 6.6% | Road | 23.8% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 4.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 24.5% | 4.2% | Home | 25.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 17.3% | 8.0% | Road | 16.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 20.2% | 8.7% | Road | 19.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 17.1% | 5.8% | Home | 19.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 11.6% | 7.4% | Road | 10.5% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 16.6% | 7.6% | Road | 14.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 2.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 21.2% | 7.1% | Road | 20.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 9.5% |
| Tyler Lyons | Cardinals | 22.7% | 6.9% | Road | 22.1% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 5.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 19.4% | 8.0% | Road | 18.6% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 10.9% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 14.3% | 9.8% | Home | 16.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 4.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 16.5% | 7.6% | Home | 16.8% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 15.8% | 11.4% | Road | 16.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 10.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 21.0% | 7.6% | RH | 19.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 21.5% | 6.2% | RH | 21.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.7% |
| Cubs | Road | 24.9% | 8.4% | RH | 24.0% | 9.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 19.6% | 7.4% | LH | 18.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.5% | 8.2% | RH | 20.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 8.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 6.0% | RH | 20.9% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.2% |
| Twins | Road | 22.8% | 7.1% | RH | 21.1% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.2% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 5.8% | LH | 20.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 12.2% | 6.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.8% | 7.7% | RH | 18.4% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.1% |
| Astros | Road | 22.2% | 7.4% | LH | 21.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.0% |
| Rays | Home | 23.0% | 7.3% | RH | 21.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.2% | 3.7% |
| Reds | Home | 19.7% | 8.7% | LH | 20.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.1% | 3.2% |
| Braves | Home | 18.3% | 8.7% | RH | 17.6% | 7.7% | L7Days | 12.2% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Road | 17.1% | 5.6% | LH | 15.1% | 5.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.6% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.8% | 8.5% | RH | 18.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 16.0% | 10.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.8% | 6.5% | RH | 20.8% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 17.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.6% | LH | 21.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 8.6% |
| Giants | Home | 18.7% | 7.8% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.2% | 8.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.7% | 9.9% | RH | 20.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Home | 18.6% | 9.3% | RH | 18.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 7.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.9% | 7.0% | RH | 21.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 20.0% | 8.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.3% | 8.1% | LH | 21.9% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | LH | 22.3% | 7.0% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.1% | 8.6% | LH | 19.5% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.5% | 8.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 8.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.8% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.4% | 6.9% | RH | 21.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Phillies | 18.3% | 14.6% | 7.3% | Home | 19.6% | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 21.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | Home | 22.4% | 6.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 22.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% | Home | 23.8% | 12.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Barry Zito | Athletics | 23.5% | 22.2% | 11.1% | Road | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 23.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | Road | 15.9% | 7.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Charlie Morton | Pirates | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.5% | Home | 22.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 33.3% | 11.1% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 24.2% | 12.6% | 10.0% | Home | 22.8% | 12.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 21.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | Home | 15.7% | 10.6% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 19.9% | 11.0% | 14.4% | Home | 18.7% | 11.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.8% | 8.7% | 6.3% | Road | 19.8% | 11.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | Home | 18.6% | 7.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 19.9% | 9.2% | 8.4% | Home | 14.9% | 9.4% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | 18.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | Road | 17.4% | 12.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | 21.3% | 8.6% | 11.5% | Road | 20.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.9% | 8.9% | 13.2% | Road | 23.2% | 11.1% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | 22.7% | 6.8% | 7.8% | Home | 22.8% | 4.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.7% | 9.4% | 11.1% | Home | 21.1% | 8.6% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 15.1% | 13.0% | 4.3% | Road | 17.9% | 4.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 21.6% | 15.7% | 10.1% | Home | 20.7% | 17.9% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 16.2% | 15.9% | 11.4% | Road | 17.2% | 20.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 18.7% | 12.8% | 4.5% | Road | 19.5% | 12.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Leake | Giants | 21.2% | 13.8% | 6.7% | Home | 22.2% | 12.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | Road | 21.9% | 11.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.4% | 10.4% | 13.8% | Road | 20.0% | 8.6% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 5.6% | 11.1% |
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 19.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | Road | 20.7% | 12.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 18.8% | 6.3% |
| Tyler Lyons | Cardinals | 21.7% | 14.9% | 7.4% | Road | 25.5% | 8.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Wade Miley | Red Sox | 20.9% | 11.4% | 5.7% | Road | 21.5% | 8.4% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Williams Perez | Braves | 20.8% | 12.4% | 3.8% | Home | 23.9% | 13.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.8% | 10.5% | 6.7% | Home | 21.4% | 12.7% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Davies | Brewers | 22.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | Road | 16.0% | 0.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Road | 22.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | RH | 22.2% | 11.1% | 11.3% | L7Days | 25.8% | 17.2% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.8% | 10.3% | 9.1% | RH | 21.0% | 11.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 17.4% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.0% | 10.8% | 7.6% | RH | 20.5% | 12.9% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% |
| Angels | Home | 20.5% | 12.0% | 9.8% | LH | 18.5% | 10.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 12.1% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | RH | 21.4% | 11.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.5% | 3.8% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.5% | 11.9% | 10.3% | RH | 22.1% | 9.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 20.0% | 11.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 19.9% | 12.1% | 10.9% | RH | 21.2% | 14.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 17.0% | 9.4% |
| Twins | Road | 19.6% | 9.2% | 11.2% | RH | 20.9% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 11.5% | 13.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 11.6% | 8.2% | LH | 21.1% | 11.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.5% | 11.5% | 3.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.3% | 11.8% | 9.5% | RH | 21.4% | 11.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.7% | 11.3% | 9.1% | RH | 20.2% | 9.5% | 9.6% | L7Days | 13.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% |
| Astros | Road | 21.3% | 11.5% | 10.5% | LH | 20.0% | 14.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.1% | 21.8% | 7.3% |
| Rays | Home | 21.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | RH | 21.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 11.7% | 8.9% | LH | 22.7% | 13.5% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.6% | 6.8% | 13.6% |
| Braves | Home | 20.9% | 7.7% | 10.2% | RH | 22.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Road | 22.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | LH | 22.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.8% | 14.1% | 13.7% | RH | 19.9% | 15.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | RH | 22.2% | 9.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 12.7% | 18.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.5% | 10.4% | 11.2% | RH | 20.3% | 10.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 14.3% | 15.7% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.6% | 12.2% | 8.7% | LH | 18.4% | 12.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 15.6% | 10.7% | 9.3% |
| Giants | Home | 20.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.0% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.2% | 12.8% | 10.5% | RH | 21.6% | 13.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 17.3% | 9.5% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Home | 22.8% | 8.8% | 11.5% | RH | 21.2% | 9.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 17.6% | 12.3% | 13.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.3% | 16.0% | 8.3% | RH | 20.5% | 15.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.8% | 14.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 12.7% | 8.8% | LH | 21.6% | 14.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| Pirates | Home | 22.0% | 11.4% | 5.3% | LH | 22.4% | 10.3% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.0% | 7.3% | 14.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.8% | 13.7% | 13.0% | LH | 19.9% | 11.2% | 13.5% | L7Days | 24.0% | 4.5% | 19.7% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 13.7% | 9.5% | RH | 20.6% | 13.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 11.3% | 7.5% | RH | 21.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| Padres | Home | 21.1% | 11.2% | 8.0% | RH | 19.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 2.3% | 13.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 12.6% | 8.2% | 1.54 | 12.6% | 8.2% | 1.54 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.54 | 22.1% | 8.8% | 2.51 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 18.8% | 9.3% | 2.02 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 1.76 |
| Barry Zito | OAK | 0.0% | 8.1% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 8.1% | 0.00 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 19.4% | 9.9% | 1.96 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 1.74 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 17.2% | 7.8% | 2.21 | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2.10 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 17.3% | 7.8% | 2.22 | 32.1% | 14.0% | 2.29 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 12.4% | 7.9% | 1.57 | 14.1% | 7.2% | 1.96 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 27.4% | 11.4% | 2.40 | 30.6% | 12.3% | 2.49 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 18.1% | 9.5% | 1.91 | 19.0% | 9.3% | 2.04 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 20.0% | 11.2% | 1.79 | 23.1% | 10.6% | 2.18 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 18.9% | 7.2% | 2.63 | 23.9% | 10.2% | 2.34 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 15.7% | 7.4% | 2.12 | 17.7% | 7.3% | 2.42 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.7% | 10.2% | 2.42 | 25.2% | 9.3% | 2.71 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 20.2% | 8.5% | 2.38 | 27.1% | 10.3% | 2.63 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 20.5% | 9.1% | 2.25 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.93 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 21.0% | 10.6% | 1.98 | 21.8% | 10.8% | 2.02 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 19.3% | 10.9% | 1.77 | 15.4% | 7.3% | 2.11 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.1% | 11.8% | 1.96 | 25.2% | 12.7% | 1.98 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 17.3% | 8.2% | 2.11 | 20.6% | 5.1% | 4.04 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 20.2% | 8.2% | 2.46 | 15.1% | 7.8% | 1.94 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 15.8% | 6.4% | 2.47 | 10.8% | 5.4% | 2.00 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 12.1% | 5.7% | 2.12 | 16.5% | 7.5% | 2.20 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.2% | 9.0% | 1.58 | 12.6% | 7.8% | 1.62 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 | 12.7% | 9.2% | 1.38 |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 22.3% | 9.4% | 2.37 | 25.0% | 9.5% | 2.63 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 17.9% | 8.4% | 2.13 | 20.1% | 8.7% | 2.31 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 14.3% | 6.2% | 2.31 | 14.4% | 7.2% | 2.00 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 15.1% | 6.5% | 2.32 | 15.2% | 6.4% | 2.38 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.70 | 15.8% | 9.3% | 1.70 |
Jose Quintana has seen his K% move above average with a drop in his SwStr% over the last month. He’s had a below average SwStr% in each of his last five starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 7.52 | 5.1 | -2.42 | 5.33 | -2.19 | 5.99 | -1.53 | 7.52 | 5.1 | -2.42 | 5.33 | -2.19 | 5.99 | -1.53 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.21 | 4.05 | -0.16 | 3.89 | -0.32 | 3.93 | -0.28 | 5.02 | 4.53 | -0.49 | 4.1 | -0.92 | 3.87 | -1.15 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.91 | 4.13 | 0.22 | 4 | 0.09 | 3.68 | -0.23 | 4.25 | 3.04 | -1.21 | 2.89 | -1.36 | 2.03 | -2.22 |
| Barry Zito | OAK | 18 | 8.06 | -9.94 | 9.57 | -8.43 | 13.81 | -4.19 | 18 | 8.06 | -9.94 | 9.57 | -8.43 | 13.81 | -4.19 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 4.38 | 4.08 | -0.3 | 3.88 | -0.5 | 3.92 | -0.46 | 3.49 | 3.83 | 0.34 | 3.56 | 0.07 | 3.28 | -0.21 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4.54 | 3.87 | -0.67 | 3.82 | -0.72 | 4.16 | -0.38 | 5.81 | 4.04 | -1.77 | 3.87 | -1.94 | 4.77 | -1.04 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 4.4 | 4.22 | -0.18 | 4.11 | -0.29 | 4.17 | -0.23 | 6.23 | 2.67 | -3.56 | 2.88 | -3.35 | 5.06 | -1.17 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 3.31 | 4.73 | 1.42 | 4.43 | 1.12 | 4.28 | 0.97 | 1.69 | 4.71 | 3.02 | 4.39 | 2.7 | 3.77 | 2.08 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 3.26 | 3.28 | 0.02 | 3.53 | 0.27 | 4.11 | 0.85 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 0.4 | 3.45 | 0.75 | 3.51 | 0.81 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.65 | 4.39 | 0.74 | 4.3 | 0.65 | 3.9 | 0.25 | 6 | 4.3 | -1.7 | 4.25 | -1.75 | 5.07 | -0.93 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.73 | 3.97 | 0.24 | 3.83 | 0.1 | 3.89 | 0.16 | 3.41 | 4.39 | 0.98 | 4.09 | 0.68 | 4.66 | 1.25 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.9 | 4.45 | 0.55 | 4.36 | 0.46 | 4.32 | 0.42 | 5.19 | 4.6 | -0.59 | 4.22 | -0.97 | 4.53 | -0.66 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 4.15 | 4.66 | 0.51 | 4.43 | 0.28 | 5 | 0.85 | 1.37 | 4.56 | 3.19 | 4.29 | 2.92 | 4.41 | 3.04 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.43 | 3.24 | -0.19 | 3.11 | -0.32 | 3.01 | -0.42 | 2.65 | 3.2 | 0.55 | 3.09 | 0.44 | 2.73 | 0.08 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.68 | 3.79 | 0.11 | 3.8 | 0.12 | 3.78 | 0.1 | 5.02 | 3.33 | -1.69 | 3.4 | -1.62 | 4.78 | -0.24 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 3.38 | 3.63 | 0.25 | 3.51 | 0.13 | 3.11 | -0.27 | 2.01 | 3.67 | 1.66 | 3.47 | 1.46 | 2.89 | 0.88 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.49 | 3.85 | -0.64 | 3.98 | -0.51 | 4.24 | -0.25 | 4.81 | 4.17 | -0.64 | 4.1 | -0.71 | 4.66 | -0.15 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 3.4 | 3.87 | 0.47 | 4.09 | 0.69 | 4.32 | 0.92 | 4.5 | 4.44 | -0.06 | 4.31 | -0.19 | 5.14 | 0.64 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.38 | 3.32 | -0.06 | 3.26 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 0.57 | 2.3 | 2.82 | 0.52 | 2.81 | 0.51 | 3.36 | 1.06 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 6.91 | 4.77 | -2.14 | 5.12 | -1.79 | 6.07 | -0.84 | 6.5 | 4.8 | -1.7 | 4.86 | -1.64 | 5.14 | -1.36 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 3.48 | 4.13 | 0.65 | 3.91 | 0.43 | 3.9 | 0.42 | 6.88 | 5.64 | -1.24 | 5.82 | -1.06 | 9.08 | 2.2 |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 3.89 | 4.14 | 0.25 | 3.88 | -0.01 | 4.22 | 0.33 | 5.86 | 5.02 | -0.84 | 4.89 | -0.97 | 6 | 0.14 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 4.09 | 4.55 | 0.46 | 4.42 | 0.33 | 3.99 | -0.1 | 5.75 | 3.7 | -2.05 | 3.73 | -2.02 | 4.76 | -0.99 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4 | 4.79 | 0.79 | 4.76 | 0.76 | 4.55 | 0.55 | 2.78 | 4.5 | 1.72 | 4.27 | 1.49 | 3.7 | 0.92 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.97 | 4.08 | 1.11 | 4.11 | 1.14 | 3.84 | 0.87 | 6.2 | 5.3 | -0.9 | 6.08 | -0.12 | 6.55 | 0.35 |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 3.96 | 3.67 | -0.29 | 3.68 | -0.28 | 4.74 | 0.78 | 3.95 | 3.14 | -0.81 | 3.91 | -0.04 | 6.51 | 2.56 |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 4.39 | 4.19 | -0.2 | 4.03 | -0.36 | 3.8 | -0.59 | 3.86 | 3.72 | -0.14 | 3.56 | -0.3 | 3.28 | -0.58 |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 5.04 | 4.89 | -0.15 | 4.82 | -0.22 | 4.95 | -0.09 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 0.38 | 3.78 | 0.14 | 4.39 | 0.75 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.42 | 4.63 | 1.21 | 4.37 | 0.95 | 4.07 | 0.65 | 5.18 | 4.5 | -0.68 | 4.19 | -0.99 | 4.99 | -0.19 |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 4.67 | 4.71 | 0.04 | 4.29 | -0.38 | 4.22 | -0.45 | 4.67 | 4.71 | 0.04 | 4.29 | -0.38 | 4.22 | -0.45 |
Anthony DeSclafani – His last two starts have been bad, but before that he was rolling and while a 3.8 HR/FB for the month is too low to be believed, a .341 BABIP and 54.9 LOB% run too far the other way despite some reasonable enough batted ball and contact authority rates, though a 23.3 LD% is a bit high.
Charlie Morton – The biggest difference between the last month and the rest of his season is that he’s allowed four of his 13 HRs over his last three starts, two of them in Colorado last time out. His estimators are otherwise very similar to his season rates with a SIERA and xFIP below four with a normalized HR rate.
Garrett Richards had his walk rate spike to 14% in September, but stranded 81.7% of his runners with a .238 BABIP, which is a bit too low, while his 18.2 HR/FB was a bit higher than normal.
Jordan Zimmermann has a 23.1 HR/FB in September.
Jose Quintana has an 86.0 LOB% over the last month despite a .323 BABIP that’s actually lower than his season rate. A rough defense and high BABIP (.318) last season, makes his .336 BABIP this year seem not too out of line.
Logan Verrett has a .207 BABIP. He has a 15.1 LD%, but a low IFFB%. Regardless, a .207 BABIP is not sustainable. A 13.0 HR/FB has moved his ERA a bit closer to his estimators, with the exception of his FIP.
Mike Leake has allowed six HRs in five September starts and has allowed nearly a quarter of his HRs (eight) in just eight starts since the trade. You can take the pitcher out of the ban box…….in fairness, he’s only started three home games since the trade, but only really pitched in one homer haven (Arizona).
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | PHI | 0.316 | 0.303 | -0.013 | 7.3% | 91.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.301 | 0.323 | 0.022 | 8.6% | 89.6% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.295 | 0.313 | 0.018 | 10.0% | 86.9% |
| Barry Zito | OAK | 0.290 | 0.400 | 0.11 | 11.1% | 85.7% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.318 | 0.312 | -0.006 | 5.3% | 92.3% |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 0.303 | 0.305 | 0.002 | 9.4% | 91.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.292 | 0.304 | 0.012 | 10.5% | 88.3% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.291 | 0.248 | -0.043 | 13.6% | 89.7% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.283 | 0.286 | 0.003 | 12.3% | 87.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.285 | 0.287 | 0.002 | 5.2% | 86.8% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.285 | 0.276 | -0.009 | 10.6% | 88.4% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.296 | 0.289 | -0.007 | 8.3% | 90.3% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.291 | 0.255 | -0.036 | 3.7% | 93.2% |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.289 | 0.308 | 0.019 | 7.8% | 87.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.302 | 0.304 | 0.002 | 12.1% | 89.8% |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.312 | 0.336 | 0.024 | 6.2% | 88.8% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.296 | 0.290 | -0.006 | 12.3% | 84.5% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.290 | 0.207 | -0.083 | 4.3% | 87.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.299 | 0.242 | -0.057 | 9.9% | 86.5% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.300 | 0.309 | 0.009 | 11.4% | 85.8% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.298 | 0.295 | -0.003 | 4.5% | 91.9% |
| Mike Leake | SFO | 0.285 | 0.268 | -0.017 | 7.9% | 94.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.300 | 0.329 | 0.029 | 6.9% | 92.6% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.279 | 0.260 | -0.019 | 14.0% | 85.0% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.284 | 0.271 | -0.013 | 7.3% | 86.5% |
| Tyler Lyons | STL | 0.296 | 0.290 | -0.006 | 7.7% | 90.0% |
| Wade Miley | BOS | 0.304 | 0.302 | -0.002 | 7.3% | 89.8% |
| Williams Perez | ATL | 0.308 | 0.318 | 0.01 | 3.8% | 90.3% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.294 | 0.295 | 0.001 | 8.3% | 89.8% |
| Zachary Davies | MIL | 0.303 | 0.235 | -0.068 | 10.5% | 83.3% |
Masahiro Tanaka is rocking a very low BABIP without indicators that push much above or below average in either direction and no other circumstances (park, defense) coming into play in his favor. He had a .299 BABIP in just as many innings last year. The BABIP counters his high HR rate and gives him a bit of a gap between his ERA and FIP.
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Tyler Lyons (6t) is a Dumpster Diving Special up top. A lot of these come about when we have a pitcher with an above average strikeout rate and a run prevention problem at the minimum or near minimum price. Pittsburgh is a great park for lefties.
Value Tier Two
Logan Verrett has his first difficult outing in his last start and the strikeout rate has dropped since his first starting assignment a month ago, but he gets to face the Phillies, the worst offense vs RHP in baseball at the near minimum. Another Dumpster Diving Special.
Jon Lester (1) is today’s top overall pitcher and top projected strikeout rate, which isn’t really saying much today. He’s basically been very much like Jon Lester since his early season struggles and faces a cold offense full of Ks over the last week.
Value Tier Three
Chase Anderson – The overall numbers like him a bit more than I do, as they’re probably over-emphasizing him returning after a couple of weeks off with a season high 10 strikeouts. Looking at the Colorado road numbers, you have to realize that Arizona is still somewhat of a hitter’s haven and the Rockies lean heavily left-handed, but he’s still likely due for some strikeouts tonight at a very low price.
Andrew Cashner (6t) has not been good overall, but has been good at home (19.1 K-BB%) and has the top matchup tonight against a depleted Milwaukee offense in a great park.
Value Tier Four
Anthony DeSclafani has struggled in his most recent two starts, but faces, by far, the whiffiest offense tonight. The Cubs are striking out a quarter of the time on the road, vs RHP, and over the last week.
Jordan Zimmermann (3) has been striking out more batters and allowing way too many HRs for two months now, but the Braves do neither of those things. They’re still a favorable matchup.
Charlie Morton is priced below average and the Cardinals are a below average offense. It’s not an unfavorable spot and he’s likely pitched better than his ERA suggests, but the Pirates, as we saw two nights back, are going to pull out all stops to win this game and one of those stops might be Morton exiting early if a situation that favors that presents itself, whether it’s a particular matchup or run scoring opportunity in a close game.
Masahiro Tanaka (2) is returning from a concerning hamstring injury and comes at a similar cost to Lester atop the board. We’ve seen him pitch effectively through worse though and the Red Sox are not as tough a matchup as many may think here.
Garrett Richards (4) has increased his K%, but also his BB%. He excels at generating weak contact, though, and the A’s similarly excel at producing it.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Drew Smyly (5) – Not that I’m buying into that every other start thing, but it does make him inconsistent and the Marlins have been better lately and even league average vs LHP. The price seems to be nearly in line with expected performance here.
Jose Quintana isn’t in a very bad spot at home, but has seen a drop in SwStr% over the last month and may find it difficult to find strikeouts tonight.
Mike Leake – Check the Dodger lineup the day after clinching. HR problems have followed him to San Francisco though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.