Advanced Stats - Pitching: Friday, July 15th
There’s a lot to talk about as we start post-All Star break baseball this year. The first thing to mention is that all league averages rates are up to date for the season. Most numbers didn’t move much at all, but there are a couple of surprises. One being that HR rates continue to soar with league average going from an already enormous 12.7 HR/FB at the beginning of June to a 13.4 HR/FB now for starting pitchers. The other interesting thing, which is probably what the increase in HRs has led to, is that ERA, SIERA, and FIP are all up over 4.30, more than a .1 increase each, while xFIP has remained fairly stable at 4.26. Being HR constant, I wonder if xFIP isn’t understanding the higher rates across the league yet.
Next, with the four off days, recent stats that are often used below (team last seven days, pitcher last 14 days) are going to be a little light for the next week or so. We’ll want be even more cautious than we already normally are with the weight we put on those.
Lastly, we’re now firmly entrenched in hugging season with the next two weeks likely to be highly chaotic until the deadline passes. Be careful with pitchers on the trading block and make sure your pitcher is not spotted hugging his teammates. There may be some frustrating scratches along the way. Some may even give your pitcher an unexpected bump.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -5.2 | 4.19 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 0.86 | 3.48 | 5.26 | SFO | 97 | 104 | 108 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -1 | 4.04 | 5.97 | 1.29 | 1.02 | 3.65 | 3.6 | MIL | 82 | 87 | 63 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -4.9 | 4.05 | 6.07 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 4.17 | 4.48 | PHI | 68 | 85 | 126 |
| Bud Norris | LOS | 0 | 3.92 | 5.36 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 4.77 | 3.24 | ARI | 93 | 91 | 70 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 9 | 2.82 | 6.25 | 1.84 | 1.03 | 2.53 | 3.12 | MIN | 96 | 91 | 154 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -6.6 | 3.42 | 6.09 | 1.36 | 0.97 | 2.76 | 3.83 | BAL | 105 | 115 | 111 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -9.3 | 4.16 | 5.87 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 3.68 | 4.74 | TOR | 100 | 106 | 126 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 8.1 | 4.48 | 6.18 | 1.42 | 0.9 | 4.42 | 6.73 | SEA | 115 | 114 | 96 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 2.6 | 4.41 | 5.59 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 4.49 | 5.93 | NYY | 96 | 87 | 110 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -5.5 | 4.27 | 6.11 | 1.07 | 1.03 | 4.36 | 3.66 | CLE | 82 | 106 | 125 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -0.9 | 3.85 | 5.86 | 1.85 | 1.02 | 3.92 | 6.08 | WAS | 98 | 118 | 90 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.8 | 4.62 | 5.35 | 0.64 | 0.92 | 4.97 | 4.96 | CHW | 87 | 100 | 89 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.9 | 3.82 | 5.77 | 0.89 | 1.01 | 4.47 | 2.61 | DET | 111 | 102 | 73 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -6.7 | 3.67 | 6.22 | 2.63 | 0.97 | 3.11 | 4.19 | FLA | 105 | 94 | 109 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -6.1 | 4.19 | 5.53 | 1.78 | 0.9 | 4.08 | 5.13 | HOU | 100 | 87 | 78 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -3.8 | 4.07 | 5.46 | 1.14 | 1.02 | 3.88 | 4.29 | NYM | 90 | 95 | 107 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 1.6 | 4.07 | 5.71 | 1.75 | 0.96 | 4.04 | 5.02 | ATL | 73 | 71 | 83 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -8.4 | 3.89 | 6.55 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 4.26 | 4.09 | KAN | 81 | 89 | 79 |
| Lucas Harrell | ATL | 0.7 | 4.23 | 6.6 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 3.97 | 4.23 | COL | 81 | 95 | 92 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 7.8 | 3.03 | 6.83 | 1.09 | 0.86 | 3.4 | 2.83 | SDG | 90 | 119 | 113 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.5 | 3.53 | 6.36 | 2.83 | 0.95 | 3.96 | 2.6 | OAK | 81 | 84 | 63 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -5.6 | 4.56 | 5.48 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 4.97 | 4.91 | CIN | 82 | 78 | 81 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.9 | 3.2 | 5.89 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 3.24 | 3.34 | BOS | 112 | 119 | 143 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 1.8 | 4.59 | 5.82 | 1.04 | 0.92 | 4.64 | 4.96 | ANA | 100 | 99 | 102 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -7 | 3.98 | 5.37 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 3.81 | 3.3 | LOS | 87 | 77 | 118 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 5.6 | 2.86 | 6.1 | 1.27 | 1.02 | 3.05 | 4.29 | PIT | 94 | 101 | 111 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 3.4 | 4.03 | 6.09 | 1.01 | 0.97 | 4.19 | 4.98 | STL | 102 | 90 | 106 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -4.3 | 4.54 | 5.54 | 1.57 | 0.97 | 4.27 | 5.48 | TAM | 89 | 88 | 81 |
NOTE: Robbie Ray is not pitching tonight. The Diamondbacks had just four off days to name a starter for Friday, but apparently that wasn’t enough time as they were still undetermined Thursday evening. Maybe it’s because the front office can’t believe they still have jobs. Robbie Ray is listed because at least a LHP would give you stats opposing team stats that would still apply if it happened to be Patrick Corbin, which it looks like it will be at this point.
Anthony DeSclafani allowed six HRs in four rehab starts at AA/AAA and walked six, striking out just four in his first two major league starts this season, but has been much more impressive over his last four starts (27.2 IP – 7 ER – 2 HR – 3 BB – 25 K – 105 BF). His hard contact rate is just 26.7% over this period. It also helps that he’s in a pretty good spot tonight against one of the coldest offense going into the break. The Brewers have a 26.3 K% vs RHP.
Bud Norris allowed three runs in less than six innings for only the second time in seven starts since returning from a bullpen banishment in Atlanta, but he’s still struck out 12 of 44 batters in those two starts. While his 19.6 K-BB% and 26.9 Hard% have been tremendously unexpected over this span, the one complaint would be that he’s only completed six innings three times. While he’s not facing a particularly dangerous offense with only a couple of dangerous bats against RHP (16.9 K-BB% at home, 16.6 K-BB% vs RHP), the park is more concerning. It’s the highest run scoring environment in play tonight with 16.8% of the home team’s fly balls leaving the yard there on a 35.8% hard hit rate.
Carlos Carrasco has struck out just nine of his last 43 batters after striking out 21 of 58 in his previous two starts and benefited from four of the five runs allowed in his last start being unearned. Further concerning was a velocity drop of about a mile per hour in each start to a season low 92.8 mph average last time out, though his SwStr% was just above average after being just 4.9% (by far the lowest of the season) in the start before. He also allowed a 42.9 Hard% in his last start. If you believe those are aberrations, Minnesota might not seem like a difficult challenge, but they may have been the hottest offense in baseball going into the break.
Chris Archer has continued to dominate at home this season and has a 32.2 K% with just a 10.7 HR/FB since season (12.8 HR/FB this seaon). His ERA is separated by four full runs from his road ERA this year. He has at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five home starts. His early home and road starts against Baltimore this year play exactly to script, allowing four HRs on the road, but striking out 10 of 25 Orioles without a run at home. They have a 24.8 K% on the road, but are still a dangerous offense with a 16.7 HR/FB vs RHP.
Jaime Garcia has twice allowed at least four runs in under six innings in his last four starts. However, he’s generated a lot of weak (2.7 Hard-Soft%) ground balls (55.4%) over that span, striking out exactly six (21.7 K%) in each start. The four HRs and 19.0 HR/FB seems more of aberration without much hard contact. He’s been very good at home since last season and the Marlins have two incredibly destructive bats against LHP, but that’s about it (24.2 K% vs LHP).
Lucas Harrell has struck out 10 of 51 batters, walking just three with just 16.7% of batted balls hit hard in two starts against the Marlins and Cubs. It’s an incredibly small sample size and is preceded by several years of minor league irrelevance with massive walk rates, which only makes it slightly more interesting. He’s not throwing a lot of pitches in the strike zone (36.9% would be last in the majors among qualifiers), but his 60.8 F-Strike% is league average. While I wouldn’t expect him to maintain most of this, he does face the Rockies (16.9 K-BB% on the road) in Atlanta.
Madison Bumgarner is generally a fairly easy pitcher to place on your daily fantasy “Want” list and why not as he finished the first half with a 14 strikeout one hit shutout against Arizona. He’s previously seen a dip in strikeout rate and increase in hard contact since the beginning of June with six of his 12 HRs coming over the previous month. In fact, his 32.1 Hard% is by far a career high mark this year and while his 28.5 K% is also a career high, his 11.6 SwStr% is not any higher than the previous three seasons (and is actually lower than last year). He shifts to a similarly very favorable pitcher’s park tonight in San Diego, where the most interesting concern is that the Padres have the second best offense in baseball vs LHP (17.2 HR/FB). They do strike out 23.8% against southpaws and he’s dominated them in two starts already though (15.2 IP – 3 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 20 K – 61 BF).
Marcus Stroman has seen a respectable increase in his strikeout rate over the last month, which would play incredibly well with his league leading 59.9 GB% this season, though with worse than average contact authority (14.5 Hard-Soft%). Though we rarely like to rely on batted balls for daily fantasy points and the A’s have just an 18.1 K% vs RHP (17.5% at home) this is a matchup that nearly perfectly suits his skillset against a below average offense that grades out as one of tonight’s top matchups in a great park. Oakland has just a 9.0 HR/FB at home and 9.1 HR/FB vs RHP with a below average walk rate.
Michael Pineda is coming off his first poor start in a while last time out, striking out just five of 25 batters with three walks and five runs against the White Sox, though 10 of 17 batted balls were on the ground with just 11.8% of contact classified as hard. He has struck out at least eight in five of his previous six starts and has the fifth best SwStr (13.9%) in the league this season. Twelve of his 15 HRs have come at home this year, but seven of those came in two of his first three starts. He does have the worst matchup on the board tonight though. The Red Sox are the second best offense on the road and best vs RHP.
Stephen Strasburg has walked seven of 50 batters since returning from the DL, but struck out 14 as well with a 3.4 Hard-Soft%. While his strikeout rate is at a career high this season, it’s not much above his career rate and I might even expect it to regress to that, but it’s really the contact management this season that’s been the biggest difference (25.1 Hard%). The Pirates have a 23.5 K% on the road, but are otherwise a very average offense in most ways.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Bartolo Colon (.291 BABIP – 81.7 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB) has the lowest SwStr% in baseball along with the second highest hard hit rate. An abnormally high strand rate (the highest of his career) is the only thing keeping his ERA below three. The Phillies are still the worst home offense in the majors (15.8 K-BB%, 23.6 Hard%), but have improved against RHP to the point where they are barely still in the bottom five.
Doug Fister (.254 BABIP – 79.8 LOB% – 13.5 HR/FB) has some extreme splits this year. RHBs have a .245 wOBA, as he has a nearly decent 9.4 K-BB% and elite 58.5 GB% (-3.7 Hard-Soft%) against them. LHBs have 12 of his 15 HRs allowed (.374 wOBA) with a GB rate nearly 20 points less and a 24.8 Hard-Soft%. The Mariners have a 17.4 HR/FB in a tough park and a 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ian Kennedy has struck out 29 of his last 71 batters, two of those three starts on the road (one in Philly, but one in Toronto). However, 17 of his 21 HRs have come on the road, though he’s also somehow pitched 11 times on the road already (six times at home). His SwStr% hasn’t increased either, while his K% has skyrocketed over the last month. Being on the road against an offense with some power is definitely a negative for him tonight, but it’s really not a terrible spot as the Tigers have a 15.2 K-BB% vs RHP. He’s one of three borderline guys tonight that could be tipped if a strange lineup came out or a favorable umpire is behind the plate. I’m not sure $10K on DraftKings is as justifiable as a much lower FanDuel price though ($8.3K).
Jorge de la Rosa has not really excelled on the road this season, but has been a bit better in more favorable parks recently and has a respectable 11.4 K-BB% away from Coors this season. What we’re really looking at is tonight’s top matchup against Atlanta (6.9 HR/FB at home), though they are now only the second worst offense vs LHP (15.0 K-BB%, 7.5 HR/FB). A cost of $7.3K on either site seems at least adequate here though.
Justin Verlander has struck out exactly five in three of his last four starts and only more against a heavily strikeout prone Tampa Bay offense. He issued a season high four walks last time out and allowed four of his 16 HRs in one start against Cleveland three starts ago. After that stretch in May where everyone was proclaiming his return to dominance, he’s been very mediocre and unpredictable since. He’s in a decent enough spot against a Kansas City offense that his below average on the road and vs RHP. They neither walk nor hit for much power, while striking out at an average rate under both circumstances. While he certainly has upside here and he does cost less than $10K on both site (much less on FanDue) it really feels like a coin flip as to which version of him we’ll see tonight.
Jeremy Hellickson has, unfortunately, experienced a dip in his bat missing skills over the last month. While his SwStr% has remained league average, it’s still a two point dip from his season rate. Fortunately, hard contact has dropped significantly as well (-6.3 Hard-Soft% over his last five starts). His 22.0 Soft% is now top 15 in baseball, which is an exceptional turnaround for a guy who had previously been allowing too much hard contact in a small park and still has a 15.8 HR/FB on the season. The Mets will strike out a bit (22.7% vs RHP), but do have power (17.4 Hard-Soft%, 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP). This is a neutral spot, which may bump him up into the fourth tier if Cespedes remains out tonight.
James Paxton has seen a dip in his K%, though a smaller dip in his SwStr%, over the last month. Though he went eight innings, allowing just two ERs against Kansas City in his last start, it was really his batted ball (28.0 Soft%) profile that really turned around in that start as he struck out just two of 28 batters. He still has just an 8.9 Soft% on the season, which would be worst in the league by a large margin if he had enough innings. Houston has a 23.8 K% vs LHP, but a high walk rate (9.8%) and above average power (14.1 HR/FB). They might miss the ball a few more times, but aren’t going to give him any help when they do make contact.
Daniel Mengden has some positive qualities and may be a league average pitcher with an ability to miss bats, but also a bit of a wild tendency. The bigger concern tonight is a Toronto offense that has patience (9.8 BB% vs RHP) and power (15.2 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP).
Wei-Yin Chen has been incredibly volatile without enough upside to make him worth the risk even in a marginally decent spot in St Louis against an offense that has under-performed against LHP for more than a season now.
Ervin Santana struck out eight A’s in his last start, the first time he’d struck out more than five in 13 starts. While his ERA has been below three over the last month, his peripherals haven’t really improved at all. This is all BABIP (.247) and a 6.7 HR/FB. Cleveland has a remarkable difference in their Home/Road splits, but are very good against RHP.
Andrew Cashner now sports a 6.0 K-BB% on the season and was lit up for four HRs against the Dodgers last time out. While not in a bad spot against an average road offense vs RHP in the most negative run environment in play tonight, the Giants have just a 6.8 K-BB% vs RHP.
Francisco Liriano is a wild man….literally. He has the highest walk rate in baseball (13.5%) by a point and a half and has struck out just eight of his last 68 batters, though he did have a 12.5 SwStr% in his last start and his HR rate has dropped a bit without one allowed in his last four starts. He’s on the road though, and Washington has a 10.1 BB% at home with a 17.2 HR/FB and 35.5 Hard% vs LHP.
Hector Santiago can miss a few bats and can even justify a lower BABIP with an exceptional profile as an extreme fly ball pitcher, but 35% of those batted balls have been hit hard and a league average HR rate this year has led to 17 so far, which his 10.5 BB% only hinders even more.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.9% | Home | 22.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.6% | Home | 20.3% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 3.8% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 16.9% | 3.5% | Road | 14.2% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Bud Norris | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.4% | 8.2% | Road | 17.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.0% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 28.2% | 5.8% | Road | 31.7% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 26.9% | 8.4% | Home | 32.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 11.5% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.6% | Home | 26.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 11.5% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 14.7% | 6.2% | Road | 16.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 14.8% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.4% | Road | 18.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 5.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.8% | Home | 17.7% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 5.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.9% | 11.0% | Road | 23.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 13.2% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.1% | 9.8% | Home | 22.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 14.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.1% | 8.4% | Road | 21.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 8.5% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.0% | Home | 21.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 13.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.0% | 9.1% | Home | 20.5% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 7.3% | 5.5% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.9% | 6.8% | Home | 20.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 6.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.5% | 9.4% | Road | 18.4% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 9.1% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.2% | Home | 23.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 9.3% |
| Lucas Harrell | Braves | L2 Years | 19.6% | 5.9% | Home | 22.7% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 5.9% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 27.2% | 4.7% | Road | 24.8% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 3.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 18.3% | 6.0% | Road | 17.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 3.6% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.2% | Road | 14.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 9.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.1% | 3.9% | Home | 25.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 35.4% | 12.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.8% | 7.9% | Road | 17.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 5.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.9% | Home | 23.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 6.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 5.8% | Home | 30.3% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 14.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.2% | Road | 19.2% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 6.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.9% | 8.5% | Road | 15.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 14.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 17.2% | 8.6% | RH | 16.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 10.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 26.0% | 9.5% | RH | 26.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 7.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.5% | 6.7% | RH | 21.0% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.9% | 7.0% | RH | 23.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.1% | 4.1% |
| Twins | Home | 19.4% | 8.2% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.1% | 12.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.8% | 7.1% | RH | 22.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 9.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 20.9% | 9.7% | RH | 22.3% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.9% | 6.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.9% | 9.1% | LH | 18.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 20.3% | 6.1% |
| Indians | Road | 22.3% | 6.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.2% | 10.1% | LH | 19.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.3% | 7.4% | LH | 23.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 5.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 21.2% | 8.4% | RH | 22.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.2% | 7.2% | LH | 24.2% | 7.2% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.4% |
| Astros | Road | 23.2% | 9.7% | LH | 23.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 6.3% |
| Mets | Road | 23.5% | 7.7% | RH | 22.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.3% |
| Braves | Home | 20.0% | 7.5% | LH | 21.0% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 5.6% | RH | 20.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 19.2% | 5.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 6.8% | RH | 20.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.6% | 6.4% |
| Padres | Home | 23.5% | 7.4% | LH | 23.8% | 8.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.5% | 6.2% | RH | 18.1% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.5% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Home | 23.0% | 7.0% | RH | 22.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.4% | 8.1% | RH | 17.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 13.9% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 15.7% | 8.1% | RH | 15.5% | 7.8% | L7Days | 13.8% | 10.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | LH | 20.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.5% | 10.7% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.3% | 7.6% | RH | 20.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 7.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.1% | 8.8% | LH | 21.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Rays | Home | 25.8% | 7.3% | RH | 24.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 4.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 29.8% | 12.1% | 13.5% | 2016 | 29.8% | 16.7% | 17.1% | Home | 33.5% | 12.1% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 53.1% | 35.7% | 46.8% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.4% | 13.0% | 2016 | 26.6% | 7.1% | 11.0% | Home | 32.5% | 13.0% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 4.8% | 16.6% |
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 31.0% | 10.7% | 14.2% | 2016 | 37.6% | 13.1% | 21.4% | Road | 30.7% | 10.3% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 36.4% | 13.1% |
| Bud Norris | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.9% | 17.7% | 2016 | 29.5% | 10.1% | 15.6% | Road | 31.7% | 14.3% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 8.3% | 15.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.8% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 2016 | 34.9% | 20.0% | 17.7% | Road | 23.6% | 10.5% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 16.7% | 20.5% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.0% | 14.8% | 2016 | 34.5% | 18.2% | 16.7% | Home | 32.1% | 10.7% | 15.3% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 15.4% | 21.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.7% | 12.9% | 5.9% | 2016 | 26.7% | 12.9% | 5.9% | Home | 28.6% | 12.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 7.1% | -3.9% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 28.5% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 2016 | 30.6% | 13.5% | 11.1% | Road | 32.4% | 16.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 6.3% | 19.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.3% | 12.6% | 12.7% | 2016 | 35.6% | 18.4% | 15.4% | Road | 37.0% | 9.5% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 28.6% | 25.0% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 2016 | 29.1% | 10.2% | 7.9% | Home | 29.3% | 11.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 0.0% | -24.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.0% | 12.5% | 3.6% | 2016 | 33.9% | 16.5% | 13.7% | Road | 26.0% | 11.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 33.0% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 2016 | 35.0% | 13.2% | 17.3% | Home | 34.6% | 11.8% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 18.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 34.9% | 14.6% | 18.6% | 2016 | 37.5% | 16.4% | 20.2% | Road | 35.1% | 15.6% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.1% | 10.5% | 6.8% | 2016 | 27.1% | 14.5% | 7.8% | Home | 27.5% | 11.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 50.0% | 11.7% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 29.6% | 7.7% | 14.3% | 2016 | 33.1% | 6.8% | 24.2% | Home | 35.3% | 8.1% | 20.9% | L14 Days | 39.6% | 0.0% | 22.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.3% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 2016 | 28.4% | 15.8% | 6.4% | Home | 30.0% | 13.2% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 0.0% | -16.2% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.3% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 2016 | 31.0% | 19.7% | 9.7% | Road | 32.4% | 13.4% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 2016 | 28.4% | 11.0% | 10.0% | Home | 28.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 11.4% |
| Lucas Harrell | Braves | L2 Years | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Home | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 2016 | 32.1% | 9.4% | 11.8% | Road | 31.0% | 11.9% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 9.1% | 5.9% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 2016 | 31.8% | 14.9% | 14.5% | Road | 31.0% | 17.4% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 16.7% | -7.3% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.5% | 15.1% | 2016 | 36.7% | 10.0% | 19.3% | Road | 29.1% | 10.5% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 25.0% | 27.5% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 2016 | 29.7% | 16.7% | 12.8% | Home | 30.2% | 19.9% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | 4.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 2016 | 29.4% | 9.1% | 12.0% | Road | 27.8% | 13.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 34.8% | 11.2% | 18.6% | 2016 | 35.0% | 14.9% | 18.0% | Home | 38.5% | 12.1% | 24.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 6.7% | 15.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.0% | 12.8% | 5.4% | 2016 | 25.1% | 12.4% | 2.3% | Home | 25.6% | 13.2% | 2.4% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 10.0% | -3.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 11.4% | 10.4% | 2016 | 36.2% | 14.0% | 22.4% | Road | 29.6% | 13.8% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.7% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 2016 | 30.3% | 10.7% | 12.7% | Road | 24.3% | 10.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 16.7% | 6.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Road | 32.7% | 11.6% | 13.8% | RH | 30.7% | 8.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 10.3% | 11.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.7% | 12.9% | 8.8% | RH | 32.3% | 14.6% | 12.9% | L7Days | 41.2% | 16.7% | 27.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.6% | 10.8% | 1.2% | RH | 28.5% | 12.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 36.1% | 23.2% | 18.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.8% | 16.8% | 19.9% | RH | 33.6% | 13.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 36.1% | 8.9% | 18.7% |
| Twins | Home | 32.3% | 11.0% | 15.2% | RH | 31.3% | 11.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 39.5% | 16.3% | 25.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.4% | 15.1% | 14.2% | RH | 33.1% | 16.7% | 13.6% | L7Days | 28.9% | 14.1% | 8.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.8% | 15.2% | 12.1% | RH | 33.6% | 15.2% | 15.6% | L7Days | 37.6% | 14.5% | 21.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.2% | 17.4% | 14.7% | RH | 32.3% | 16.3% | 15.5% | L7Days | 31.6% | 17.6% | 13.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 28.2% | 13.5% | 8.7% | LH | 30.0% | 10.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 10.6% | 14.3% |
| Indians | Road | 31.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | RH | 31.7% | 14.8% | 14.3% | L7Days | 30.9% | 18.3% | 13.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.4% | 13.4% | 13.5% | LH | 35.5% | 17.2% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.2% | 16.7% | 10.9% |
| White Sox | Road | 28.4% | 10.8% | 10.1% | LH | 29.6% | 13.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.6% | 13.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.7% | 14.2% | 16.6% | RH | 31.9% | 14.1% | 14.4% | L7Days | 32.2% | 13.7% | 17.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 31.2% | 10.4% | 10.8% | LH | 33.4% | 13.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.6% | 16.3% |
| Astros | Road | 35.1% | 14.4% | 18.1% | LH | 32.3% | 14.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 26.7% | 15.4% | 3.4% |
| Mets | Road | 33.6% | 14.1% | 18.8% | RH | 34.6% | 14.2% | 17.4% | L7Days | 30.5% | 16.9% | 12.7% |
| Braves | Home | 28.4% | 6.9% | 10.2% | LH | 29.1% | 7.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 18.2% | 9.4% |
| Royals | Road | 27.1% | 10.5% | 7.7% | RH | 29.3% | 9.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 28.7% | 15.1% | 7.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.2% | 13.7% | 10.7% | RH | 32.6% | 14.0% | 15.2% | L7Days | 29.7% | 8.0% | 17.4% |
| Padres | Home | 30.5% | 12.6% | 12.0% | LH | 32.6% | 17.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 16.7% | 19.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.9% | 9.0% | 9.7% | RH | 29.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.6% | 1.1% |
| Reds | Home | 30.7% | 15.2% | 13.6% | RH | 30.4% | 12.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.3% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.0% | 14.0% | 13.0% | RH | 34.2% | 12.8% | 15.5% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.3% | 16.0% |
| Angels | Home | 29.5% | 10.5% | 10.8% | RH | 30.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | L7Days | 31.4% | 5.3% | 12.3% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.6% | 11.1% | 17.4% | LH | 31.2% | 11.5% | 14.4% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.0% | 10.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.1% | 12.0% | 9.4% | RH | 29.0% | 11.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 29.8% | 25.0% | 9.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.3% | 12.3% | 16.0% | LH | 32.0% | 10.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 30.9% | 12.3% | 11.8% |
| Rays | Home | 33.2% | 12.3% | 14.5% | RH | 32.8% | 14.2% | 13.1% | L7Days | 30.6% | 12.5% | 12.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 15.7% | 6.2% | 2.53 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.89 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 19.3% | 9.4% | 2.05 | 22.0% | 9.4% | 2.34 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.1% | 5.2% | 3.10 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 3.68 |
| Bud Norris | LOS | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 | 30.4% | 12.3% | 2.47 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 24.7% | 11.5% | 2.15 | 28.0% | 12.3% | 2.28 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 26.9% | 11.4% | 2.36 | 26.3% | 12.1% | 2.17 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 23.7% | 10.6% | 2.24 | 23.7% | 10.6% | 2.24 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 15.0% | 5.8% | 2.59 | 16.1% | 6.8% | 2.37 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 15.3% | 8.0% | 1.91 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 17.6% | 8.9% | 1.98 | 16.0% | 7.5% | 2.13 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.99 | 18.9% | 10.5% | 1.80 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.10 | 22.2% | 9.3% | 2.39 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.8% | 10.1% | 2.46 | 31.9% | 10.3% | 3.10 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 20.1% | 9.2% | 2.18 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 2.08 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 20.8% | 11.3% | 1.84 | 16.8% | 10.2% | 1.65 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 21.3% | 11.5% | 1.85 | 17.5% | 9.5% | 1.84 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 20.6% | 11.4% | 1.81 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 1.44 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 25.1% | 11.5% | 2.18 | 21.7% | 10.5% | 2.07 |
| Lucas Harrell | ATL | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.15 | 19.6% | 9.1% | 2.15 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 28.5% | 11.6% | 2.46 | 29.8% | 12.1% | 2.46 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 | 20.6% | 10.6% | 1.94 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 12.8% | 5.4% | 2.37 | 12.8% | 5.4% | 2.37 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.2% | 13.9% | 1.96 | 35.6% | 13.2% | 2.70 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 17.1% | 9.0% | 1.90 | 13.4% | 6.9% | 1.94 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 26.0% | 10.5% | 2.48 | 28.3% | 10.5% | 2.70 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 31.4% | 11.3% | 2.78 | 29.0% | 9.3% | 3.12 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.13 | 18.5% | 9.9% | 1.87 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 15.4% | 5.9% | 2.61 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 2.94 |
Stephen Strasburg has always been a guy who’s K/SwStr has lived on the edge, though it’s a little more pronounced this season as he’s gone a bit past that edge. His 11.3 SwStr% this season matches his 11.3 career SwStr%. I’d expect his K% to just about match as well. It’s not much higher than his 29% career mark, but anything above 30% might be pushing it.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 5.4 | 5.07 | -0.33 | 5.06 | -0.34 | 5.58 | 0.18 | 9.35 | 5.26 | -4.09 | 5.78 | -3.57 | 10.56 | 1.21 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.23 | 4.32 | 2.09 | 4.51 | 2.28 | 3.64 | 1.41 | 2.37 | 3.93 | 1.56 | 4.29 | 1.92 | 3.04 | 0.67 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 3.28 | 4.38 | 1.1 | 4.09 | 0.81 | 4.12 | 0.84 | 3.86 | 4.06 | 0.2 | 3.76 | -0.1 | 5.36 | 1.5 |
| Bud Norris | LOS | 3.98 | 4.19 | 0.21 | 4.06 | 0.08 | 3.75 | -0.23 | 2.54 | 3.05 | 0.51 | 2.99 | 0.45 | 2.08 | -0.46 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.47 | 3.53 | 1.06 | 3.33 | 0.86 | 4.02 | 1.55 | 1.6 | 3.37 | 1.77 | 3.04 | 1.44 | 3.25 | 1.65 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 4.66 | 3.84 | -0.82 | 3.66 | -1 | 4.28 | -0.38 | 4.54 | 3.77 | -0.77 | 3.66 | -0.88 | 3.52 | -1.02 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 4.54 | 4.15 | -0.39 | 4.08 | -0.46 | 4.07 | -0.47 | 4.54 | 4.16 | -0.38 | 4.08 | -0.46 | 4.07 | -0.47 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 3.55 | 4.93 | 1.38 | 4.79 | 1.24 | 4.87 | 1.32 | 4.01 | 4.85 | 0.84 | 4.85 | 0.84 | 5.17 | 1.16 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 8.59 | 5.36 | -3.23 | 5.78 | -2.81 | 6.96 | -1.63 | 10.7 | 4.81 | -5.89 | 5.14 | -5.56 | 6.35 | -4.35 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 4.06 | 4.57 | 0.51 | 4.51 | 0.45 | 4.09 | 0.03 | 2.76 | 4.59 | 1.83 | 4.73 | 1.97 | 3.6 | 0.84 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 5.15 | 5.01 | -0.14 | 4.89 | -0.26 | 5.31 | 0.16 | 4.94 | 5.25 | 0.31 | 5.43 | 0.49 | 4.53 | -0.41 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 4.58 | 4.76 | 0.18 | 5.1 | 0.52 | 5.14 | 0.56 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 5.32 | 3.02 | 4.26 | 1.96 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3.97 | 4 | 0.03 | 4.47 | 0.5 | 5.05 | 1.08 | 3.77 | 3.22 | -0.55 | 3.77 | 0 | 4.71 | 0.94 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 4.01 | 4 | -0.01 | 3.79 | -0.22 | 3.93 | -0.08 | 4.26 | 4.17 | -0.09 | 4.04 | -0.22 | 4.82 | 0.56 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.91 | 3.94 | 0.03 | 3.71 | -0.2 | 2.99 | -0.92 | 3.96 | 4.5 | 0.54 | 4.31 | 0.35 | 2.66 | -1.3 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.92 | 4.03 | 0.11 | 3.9 | -0.02 | 4.26 | 0.34 | 2.9 | 4.39 | 1.49 | 4.31 | 1.41 | 3.47 | 0.57 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 5.74 | 4.48 | -1.26 | 4.54 | -1.2 | 5.39 | -0.35 | 2.61 | 5.23 | 2.62 | 5.03 | 2.42 | 5.08 | 2.47 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.07 | 3.82 | -0.25 | 4.18 | 0.11 | 3.87 | -0.2 | 4.26 | 4.1 | -0.16 | 4.57 | 0.31 | 4.41 | 0.15 |
| Lucas Harrell | ATL | 1.32 | 4.22 | 2.9 | 4.53 | 3.21 | 2.81 | 1.49 | 1.32 | 4.23 | 2.91 | 4.53 | 3.21 | 2.81 | 1.49 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 1.94 | 3.3 | 1.36 | 3.4 | 1.46 | 2.96 | 1.02 | 2.06 | 2.98 | 0.92 | 3.11 | 1.05 | 3.06 | 1 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.89 | 3.93 | -0.96 | 3.75 | -1.14 | 3.91 | -0.98 | 4.75 | 3.31 | -1.44 | 3.1 | -1.65 | 3.87 | -0.88 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 5.54 | 5.01 | -0.53 | 5.15 | -0.39 | 4.71 | -0.83 | 5.54 | 5.01 | -0.53 | 5.15 | -0.39 | 4.71 | -0.83 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.38 | 3.38 | -2 | 3.34 | -2.04 | 3.79 | -1.59 | 3.68 | 2.72 | -0.96 | 2.49 | -1.19 | 2.56 | -1.12 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.39 | 4.9 | 0.51 | 4.86 | 0.47 | 4.31 | -0.08 | 5.52 | 5.47 | -0.05 | 5.3 | -0.22 | 4.23 | -1.29 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.81 | 3.82 | -0.99 | 3.67 | -1.14 | 3.91 | -0.9 | 4.25 | 3.26 | -0.99 | 3.29 | -0.96 | 2.79 | -1.46 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.62 | 3.1 | 0.48 | 3.03 | 0.41 | 2.97 | 0.35 | 0.87 | 3.76 | 2.89 | 3.74 | 2.87 | 3.61 | 2.74 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.83 | 4.29 | -0.54 | 4.37 | -0.46 | 4.54 | -0.29 | 5.53 | 4.47 | -1.06 | 4.78 | -0.75 | 5.16 | -0.37 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.82 | 5.56 | -0.26 | 5.56 | -0.26 | 5.18 | -0.64 | 4.97 | 5.48 | 0.51 | 5.4 | 0.43 | 5.98 | 1.01 |
Anthony DeSclafani still has just six starts under his belt and most of the bad stuff came from the first two, though his numbers are still a bit strange across the board with a high BABIP, but 83.0 LOB% and just a 7.1 HR/FB. While he’s allowed very little hard contact, a HR rate now nearly just half the league average doesn’t seem very sustainable in a park like Cincinnati.
Carlos Carrasco has a low BABIP, while having one of the league’s top defenses behind him and a low line drive rate despite a high hard contact rate (34.9%) and just one popup on the season. His 86.9 LOB% is way too high, especially considering a decreased K%. His 20.0 HR/FB should reduce, but probably only if the hard contact rate does as well.
Chris Archer has an overall 18.2 HR/FB, though we know his home and road splits are stark in just about every manner.
Madison Bumgarner has a career BABIP in line with what his defense has allowed this season. I’m a bit conflicted on his season rate as his LD% and IFFB% are right in line with season rates, but his Z-Contact% is a career low and by over two points, though still just inside the top 25 in baseball. This may be playing a part in his career high K% without a rise in SwStr%. An 85.6 LOB% is also a career high by a wide margin and not very justifiable. I want to at least give him credit for his FIP though as his 9.4 HR/FB is almost exactly his career mark in a great park.
Marcus Stroman does not have a strong batted ball profile with just two popups the entire season and a lot of hard ground balls. Though the defense is good, he seems to deserve this, though his 65.0 LOB% is probably a bit too low.
Michael Pineda won’t be able to satisfactorily close the gap between his ERA and estimators, but his BABIP has been below .300 in four of six starts (and actually .150 or less in three of them), while we might have to consider a 16.7 HR/FB for a Yankee pitcher a real thing in 2016, though five HRs over his last six home starts is at least more respectable. His BABIP profile doesn’t even suggest much better in store, but a 66.7 LOB% is still in line for regression though.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.306 | 0.297 | -0.009 | 0.189 | 7.6% | 91.8% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.291 | 0.330 | 0.039 | 0.19 | 7.1% | 90.9% |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.304 | 0.291 | -0.013 | 0.253 | 10.1% | 93.7% |
| Bud Norris | LOS | 0.276 | 0.300 | 0.024 | 0.216 | 5.8% | 87.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.281 | 0.262 | -0.019 | 0.189 | 1.8% | 86.9% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.306 | 0.321 | 0.015 | 0.213 | 7.1% | 85.6% |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.310 | 0.309 | -0.001 | 0.255 | 6.5% | 85.7% |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 0.307 | 0.254 | -0.053 | 0.179 | 6.3% | 92.7% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.302 | 0.316 | 0.014 | 0.221 | 10.2% | 88.4% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.321 | 0.295 | -0.026 | 0.197 | 9.3% | 89.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.302 | 0.297 | -0.005 | 0.187 | 4.7% | 88.7% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.306 | 0.255 | -0.051 | 0.14 | 15.5% | 82.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.293 | 0.259 | -0.034 | 0.187 | 11.7% | 84.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.291 | 0.304 | 0.013 | 0.196 | 2.9% | 88.1% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.295 | 0.390 | 0.095 | 0.219 | 2.3% | 85.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.308 | 0.283 | -0.025 | 0.242 | 11.9% | 84.7% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.319 | 0.315 | -0.004 | 0.181 | 6.6% | 87.6% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.313 | 0.275 | -0.038 | 0.184 | 12.4% | 83.8% |
| Lucas Harrell | ATL | 0.292 | 0.194 | -0.098 | 0.143 | 14.3% | 87.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.288 | 0.255 | -0.033 | 0.199 | 11.8% | 83.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.279 | 0.306 | 0.027 | 0.201 | 2.7% | 91.6% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.304 | 0.358 | 0.054 | 0.161 | 3.3% | 95.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.302 | 0.349 | 0.047 | 0.229 | 3.3% | 85.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.303 | 0.299 | -0.004 | 0.219 | 9.1% | 86.6% |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.311 | 0.367 | 0.056 | 0.245 | 5.7% | 85.0% |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.288 | 0.270 | -0.018 | 0.2 | 7.9% | 84.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.301 | 0.292 | -0.009 | 0.221 | 5.0% | 88.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.306 | 0.324 | 0.018 | 0.22 | 3.6% | 91.9% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Not all teams necessarily have their top guy lined up to start after the break, but it is a very strong overall board with many usable arms at reasonable prices at least. In fact, I would (and do below) call nearly half of today’s starting pitchers worth of consideration on lesser days. There are a few that I’ve been wavering back and forth on all day (mentioned above), who can still be wavered on depending on changing conditions throughout the day, though none are likely essential to your daily fantasy plans.
Value Tier One
Marcus Stroman (5) puts us in the unenviable position of relying on batted ball outcomes for a lot of his expected fantasy production tonight. It may surprise you that he’s projected as the top value potentially on both sites, but this is a matchup that suits his skill set fine. He’s been missing a few more bats, which will hopefully keep his K% competitive against a contact prone offense tonight. The quality of that contact is generally poor though, which should help him even more. Add that to the top ground ball rate in the league with a strand rate in line for regression and I’m a bit more comfortable on more batted ball reliance tonight at a cost below $8K on either site.
Chris Archer (4) maintains a reasonable price tag because he took a beating in Boston last time out and that may play in our favor today as it might make a high upside pitcher, who may have a better chance to reach that upside at home, a lower owned pitcher tonight. Players may be fearful of the high ERA and 18 HRs allowed against a high power team, while Home/Road splits are generally less trustworthy than L/R ones. He could allow four runs and only pitch six innings, but still strike out 10 to cover his cost.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Carrasco (1t) may still be the top overall pitcher tonight if we expect him to perform up to his capabilities and it looked like he was ready to take off just a couple of starts back. There are enough legitimate concerns over those two starts to move him out of the top tier, especially as the highest priced DraftKings pitcher tonight. The one bright spot in his last two starts is that his ground ball rate has remained at least 50% in each.
Michael Pineda has tonight’s worst matchup by far and carries a reputation that scares a lot of people. This actually benefits us because though he may be an incredibly risky play tonight, he’s very likely to lightly owned even for a cost of just about $7.5K for a guy who is top five in SwStr% this year. I’m not suggesting players should be all in on him or even halfway in, but the upside in a low owned spot is probably worth some exposure, especially since he’s cut down on hard contact significantly recently and it seems that a 37.5 LOB% is what caused the most problems in what many might consider a reversion to his previously untrustable form in his last start.
Madison Bumgarner (1t) is one of tonight’s top pitchers and the most expensive on FanDuel (third on DraftKings). While his ERA is not in line with his estimators, we know how good he is and have pointed out where a lot of the flaws lie, which don’t nearly give us enough reason to be that concerned tonight. They do keep him from being considered an absolutely top value tonight though. San Diego’s dominance of LHP in the power department may be another, but he’s dispatched them quite easily in two starts already this season.
Value Tier Three
Jaime Garcia has not had results exactly in line with his underlying numbers over his last four starts. His strikeout rate has been consistent (although a few too many walks) and contact has been mostly of the weak ground ball variety. That gives us some value at a pretty reasonable cost just below $8K tonight. The upside may be limited and you have to fear the middle of that order. Although nine of his 10 HRs have been to RHBs along with a more normal 30.0 Hard%, he’s actually kept been more dominant with the GBs against them (60.8%).
Stephen Strasburg (3) is one of tonight’s top overall pitchers in a marginal spot, but is the second costliest pitcher on either site. His control has been a bit off since returning and I’m still very slightly skeptical of his career high K%, but those are really only minor concerns tonight.
Lucas Harrell will probably end up blowing up and walking the park at some point and that may even be tonight as he’s getting strike one, but hasn’t been throwing too many in the strike zone after that. What’s important tonight is that he’s not facing a particularly patient team or a good offense on the road and carries one of the lowest price tags on the board.
Anthony DeSclafani has 21.0 K-BB% over his last four starts with strong overall results and faces the offense with the highest K% vs RHP. DraftKings adjusts heavily for recent performance and matchup, as should be obvious by now as he has the highest upward price adjustment going from FD to DK. While he’s still probably usable on either site, he can move down or up a tier depending on your preferred destination.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Bud Norris is still plenty affordable to be considered here with great peripherals for over a month now and facing a very beatable offense. The concerns would be a very dangerous park and an inability to consistently go deep into games.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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