Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 25th
The last week of July can turn into one of the most frustrating daily fantasy weeks of the year. I don’t think we’ll run into any problems today, but Hellickson is the only guy I could legitimately see being moved here. Pitchers may not necessarily be facing the lineups initially envisioned as pieces are moved around the league this week too. We start the week with what looks like a strong set of arms with a lot of the league’s top ground pitchers on an 11 game slate.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 4.5 | 3.8 | 6.37 | 2.88 | 1.02 | 3.95 | 2.78 | SDG | 88 | 82 | 88 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | -1 | 4 | 6.03 | 1.3 | 0.89 | 4.42 | 3.44 | SFO | 112 | 102 | 91 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -6.7 | 3.56 | 6.15 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 3.44 | 3.67 | NYM | 104 | 94 | 72 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -5.6 | 4.34 | 5.39 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 4.57 | 5.8 | ARI | 99 | 89 | 76 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | -5.2 | 4.66 | 5.39 | 1.44 | 1.02 | 5.4 | 6.52 | TOR | 108 | 105 | 84 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 8.1 | 3.18 | 6.84 | 2.96 | 1.01 | 2.48 | 4.22 | NYY | 82 | 86 | 77 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -9.3 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 4.42 | 6.41 | TEX | 98 | 92 | 116 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 2.6 | 3.65 | 5.52 | 1.19 | 1.07 | 3.65 | 4.75 | DET | 96 | 92 | 72 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 3.8 | 4.59 | 5.38 | 0.64 | 1.04 | 5.07 | 4.48 | KAN | 105 | 104 | 82 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.9 | 3.77 | 5.72 | 0.86 | 1.04 | 3.46 | 4.12 | ANA | 99 | 99 | 112 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 8.6 | 3 | 6.7 | 2.19 | 0.99 | 2.94 | 2.86 | CHW | 93 | 87 | 108 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 7.8 | 4.33 | 5.78 | 0.84 | 0.89 | 4.73 | 3.22 | CIN | 79 | 81 | 138 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 3.4 | 4.74 | 5.56 | 2.16 | 1 | 4.49 | PHI | 94 | 82 | 74 | |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -3.8 | 4.02 | 5.51 | 1.13 | 1 | 4.22 | 3.23 | FLA | 89 | 96 | 85 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 1.6 | 4.2 | 5.64 | 1.72 | 1.04 | 4.11 | 6.31 | BAL | 114 | 88 | 62 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -8.4 | 3.8 | 6.59 | 0.79 | 1.07 | 4.04 | 2.86 | BOS | 123 | 120 | 149 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 8.7 | 4.88 | 5.82 | 2.24 | 1.07 | 4.34 | 6.34 | OAK | 94 | 95 | 86 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.9 | 3.18 | 5.88 | 1.44 | 1.01 | 2.89 | 2.99 | HOU | 99 | 102 | 138 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 1.8 | 4.56 | 5.74 | 1.07 | 0.99 | 4.55 | 3.84 | CHC | 111 | 103 | 104 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -4.9 | 2.84 | 6.19 | 1.57 | 0.87 | 2.46 | 3.12 | STL | 116 | 114 | 101 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -4.3 | 4.63 | 5.55 | 1.53 | 1.04 | 4.83 | 6.34 | COL | 81 | 95 | 103 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | -7 | 0 | 0 | 1.05 | MIL | 91 | 84 | 84 |
Aaron Sanchez is generally been a borderline daily fantasy starter and someone I’ve usually avoided due to what I perceive to be a lack of upside in some questionable matchups at home, so it would appear strange that he’s being listed here with just a 14.1 K% and 7.4 SwStr% over the last month. Nobody can question the quality of contact he’s generated though with the fifth best ground ball rate in baseball (57.1%) and a top 20 Hard-Soft rate (6.2%). He has allowed seven of his 10 HRs at home this year though, in barely more than half the innings he’s pitched on the road. While that 19.7 HR/FB at home is a major concern, he’s only allowed one HR to a RHB at home and he’s significantly cut down his walk rate to 4.4% over the last month. While the Padres have begun to mix in a few more LHBs, with a couple of them even looking competent, this is still a heavily RH lineup and one of the worst vs RHP, with the second highest strikeout rate (24.6%). They add the second highest strikeout rate on the road (25.4%).
Carlos Martinez had upped his strikeout rate significantly in his last two starts before dropping back down under 20% against the Padres last time out. It was the third straight start he’d thrown his slider more than 23% and just the sixth time this year, while his 10.1% changeup usage was his second lowest rate of the season. While this is partially because he’s faced three straight heavily RH lineups, he threw his changeup 22.3% of the time against the Brewers. He’s getting significantly fewer swings and misses on his changeup (15.4%), but ground balls 78% of the time. His 58.2 GB% overall is second best in the majors. The Mets are not a RH lineup, which likely means more changeups and lots of ground balls, but they do strikeout 22% of the time at home and vs RHP. Though they have some power, ground balls don’t leave the yard.
Dallas Keuchel has gone at least six innings in six straight starts and only three ERs once. While the strikeout rate is down a bit, the SwStr% is actually up. He has the sixth best GB rate in baseball (56.8%), though contact hasn’t been as weak as last season. He’s just two HRs behind last year’s total, but none in his last two. He’s been much better at home this season, with his walk rate cut in half (4.4%), a higher GB rate (64.7%) and just four of his 15 HRs. The Yankees don’t strike out much (17.1% vs LHP), but they are otherwise terrible both against southpaws (9.2 HR/FB) and on the road.
Ian Kennedy is pitching at home for just the eight time in 20 starts. His 26 HRs allowed leads all of baseball and though his 15.4 HR/FB is lower at home, he allowed four in his last start against Cleveland, but he also has a 30.7 K% and 23.3 K-BB% in Kansas City this season. It appears he’s more willing to challenge hitters in a bigger park. That should help him against an average Angels’ offense that has the lowest strikeout rate in baseball vs RHP (15.7%), but also very little power beyond a couple of batters (9.2 HR/FB).
Jake Arrieta struck out eight of 27 Mets in seven innings of one run ball in his last start. In some sense, that would seem like a bounce back and probably what most daily fantasy players are most concerned with since he’s walked just one in two straight starts too. However, his GB rate has now been below 50% in six straight starts and below 40% in three of his last five with a hard hit rate at least 33.3% in three straight. The White Sox might not be the offense best able to take advantage of those batted ball and contact rates though.
Jake Peavy hasn’t really pitched poorly his last few starts when you consider his most recent was in Boston and two of the three hits he allowed left the park. His skills are obviously greatly diminished at this point, but he can still be an average pitcher in a great home park and he’s still missing bats at nearly a league average rate. He may have tonight’s top park adjusted matchup too. The Reds have some power that should be negated here, especially from the left side, while they’ll strike out 22% of the time on the road and vs RHP.
Jeremy Hellickson struck out eight of 28 Marlins in eight innings with one run (solo HR) in his last start and upgrades in park for the rematch tonight. He was very mediocre in two earlier starts against them this season. Despite the 16.2 HR/FB, he has an exceptional 22.4 Soft% that’s eighth best in the majors, lending one to believe that the park (and hanging curves) are a major culprit. He’s not a pitcher we’ll dig deeper on today, but perhaps net time out in a new uniform most likely. The Marlins don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 10.0 HR/FB vs RHP. It’s mostly Stanton or bust in that department.
Michael Pineda struck out eight of 25 Orioles without allowing a run in six innings at home against the Orioles in his last start. It was a Baltimore team suffering from the flu with a few starters out, but it was impressive none the less. While getting out of Yankee Stadium can often help him, he’s facing a hot offense with power (15.8 HR/FB at home, 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP) and has a chance to rack up the strikeouts (23.7 K% vs RHP).
Noah Syndergaard struck out eight of 25 Cubs at Wrigley in his first post-break start. He averaged 97.5 mph on his fastball, which is actually down half a mph from his season rate, but no reason for concern. That’ll usually get the job done and his 15.0 SwStr% over the last month is exactly his season rate too. He hasn’t generated GBs at higher than a 45.5% rate over any of his last three starts with a season rate that sits at 51.2% now. The Cardinals are a tough assignment with a 15.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but this is one of the more negative overall run environments in baseball.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Anthony DeSclafani (.320 – 82.5% – 9.3) is not even in a particularly bad run prevention spot facing a team with little power in a great park, but he has just a league average strikeout rate against an offense with a 7.8 K-BB% vs RHP.
Drew Pomeranz (.253 – 80.0% – 10.4) started well, but was then soundly thumped and knocked out after three innings by the Giants in his Fenway debut, for the home team at least. It was only the second time he’d allowed multiple HRs all season. Expectations should be lowered in that park and though the Tigers come in struggling and surprisingly below average vs LHP, there has been no price adjustment yet.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander is in Boston tonight.
Braden Shipley was the 15th overall pick in 2013. Instead of diving into all of the prospect reports, I can just tell you that he disappointingly has struck out just 15.5% of batters at AAA this season (119.1 IP) with just 17.8% of batters at AA last season in 156.2 innings. Disappointing because he faces the Brewers (26.3 K% vs RHP) and surprising because I’m not sure Dave Stewart realizes they still have a first round pick in the system they haven’t traded to the Braves.
Jorge de la Rosa may be facing an offense that has strangely struggled vs LHP, but is still not a pitcher we want to utilize in Baltimore.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.9% | Home | 16.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 0.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.2% | Road | 18.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.1% | Road | 24.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.5% | 7.4% | Home | 17.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.3% | Road | 16.6% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 11.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.2% | Home | 25.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 9.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.8% | 11.4% | Road | 20.5% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 17.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.9% | 9.2% | Home | 25.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 10.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.3% | 9.7% | Road | 19.2% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.0% | Home | 28.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.8% | 6.6% | Road | 24.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 3.7% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 17.9% | 6.0% | Home | 14.4% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 4.6% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.1% | 11.3% | Home | 14.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.1% | 6.5% | Road | 19.4% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 0.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.6% | Road | 17.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 5.7% | 9.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.2% | Road | 22.0% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 7.0% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.1% | 8.8% | Home | 12.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 8.9% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.4% | 4.0% | Road | 23.7% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 6.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.9% | Home | 17.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.8% | 4.9% | Home | 29.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 8.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.8% | Home | 14.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 25.4% | 6.9% | RH | 24.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.7% | 5.5% |
| Giants | Home | 17.0% | 10.0% | RH | 16.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.5% |
| Mets | Home | 22.7% | 9.6% | RH | 22.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 22.2% | 7.7% | RH | 23.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.0% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 22.3% | 9.9% | RH | 21.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.1% | 6.5% | LH | 17.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.4% | 9.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.2% | RH | 19.4% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 7.6% | LH | 21.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.0% |
| Royals | Home | 18.2% | 6.7% | LH | 17.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% |
| Angels | Road | 15.8% | 7.5% | RH | 15.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.5% | 8.3% | RH | 21.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.5% |
| Reds | Road | 22.1% | 7.1% | RH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 10.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.9% | 6.1% | RH | 21.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 25.6% | 5.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 19.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 8.6% | LH | 21.1% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.9% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.7% | 9.2% | RH | 17.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 15.7% | 6.1% |
| Athletics | Road | 18.5% | 7.2% | LH | 17.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.2% |
| Astros | Home | 24.2% | 9.9% | RH | 23.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.9% | 10.0% | RH | 22.7% | 10.8% | L7Days | 17.9% | 8.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.6% | 9.2% | RH | 19.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 7.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 11.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 25.4% | 10.3% | RH | 26.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.2% | 11.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.0% | 13.6% | 3.8% | 2016 | 28.1% | 13.2% | 6.2% | Home | 27.2% | 19.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Years | 30.5% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 2016 | 27.6% | 9.3% | 11.8% | Road | 28.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 16.7% | 13.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.3% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 2016 | 28.7% | 10.0% | 10.5% | Road | 30.0% | 8.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 36.8% | 25.0% | 26.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.7% | 15.7% | 2016 | 37.5% | 15.5% | 20.5% | Home | 30.3% | 10.3% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.7% | 17.7% | 2016 | 32.1% | 13.0% | 14.2% | Road | 30.7% | 17.8% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 37.5% | 27.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 23.7% | 14.4% | 0.4% | 2016 | 30.1% | 17.2% | 8.5% | Home | 20.6% | 10.1% | -7.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.0% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 2016 | 26.0% | 9.3% | 5.4% | Road | 25.0% | 13.3% | -1.9% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.2% | 3.9% | 2016 | 28.8% | 10.4% | 8.6% | Home | 30.7% | 13.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 40.0% | 30.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 33.6% | 10.5% | 17.1% | 2016 | 35.9% | 12.1% | 18.3% | Road | 33.6% | 10.5% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 5.0% | 25.8% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 35.6% | 15.7% | 20.0% | 2016 | 38.0% | 18.1% | 21.3% | Home | 38.4% | 20.6% | 24.7% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 31.3% | 32.2% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.7% | 0.8% | 2016 | 25.4% | 8.3% | 3.2% | Road | 24.8% | 10.0% | 2.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| Jake Peavy | Giants | L2 Years | 29.6% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 2016 | 36.7% | 8.5% | 22.1% | Home | 30.4% | 4.7% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 33.3% | 46.7% |
| Jarred Cosart | Marlins | L2 Years | 25.9% | 10.0% | 4.4% | 2016 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% | Home | 21.9% | 3.7% | 1.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.8% | 13.7% | 13.6% | 2016 | 27.5% | 16.2% | 5.1% | Road | 34.0% | 15.2% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 18.8% | -5.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.2% | 15.3% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.9% | 16.2% | 9.1% | Road | 32.1% | 12.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 24.9% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2016 | 26.9% | 10.7% | 7.9% | Road | 22.3% | 8.2% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 7.1% | -12.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 2016 | 32.2% | 11.3% | 16.2% | Home | 25.6% | 9.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 6.3% | 16.7% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 30.2% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 2016 | 31.8% | 18.2% | 14.6% | Road | 29.7% | 8.7% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 33.3% | 31.0% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 2016 | 31.0% | 9.1% | 13.9% | Home | 30.1% | 12.9% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 9.1% | 26.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 26.1% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 2016 | 28.1% | 7.9% | 9.7% | Home | 23.9% | 11.7% | 0.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 2016 | 29.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | Home | 28.7% | 7.8% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% |
| Braden Shipley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 32.1% | 14.9% | 14.2% | RH | 30.9% | 13.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 16.7% | 4.8% |
| Giants | Home | 26.6% | 7.2% | 5.0% | RH | 31.0% | 8.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 32.2% | 6.5% | 16.1% |
| Mets | Home | 34.8% | 14.9% | 13.9% | RH | 34.4% | 13.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 5.4% | 10.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.9% | 13.6% | 12.8% | RH | 33.3% | 13.4% | 15.8% | L7Days | 27.6% | 16.2% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 35.2% | 14.5% | 17.8% | RH | 33.3% | 15.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 34.9% | 17.0% | 15.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.4% | 10.8% | 11.7% | LH | 29.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 25.7% | 10.4% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 28.7% | 11.3% | 9.2% | RH | 29.9% | 13.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 40.1% | 19.0% | 22.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 32.2% | 13.7% | 13.6% | LH | 33.4% | 11.7% | 14.7% | L7Days | 36.4% | 13.6% | 22.8% |
| Royals | Home | 30.9% | 10.3% | 9.6% | LH | 28.0% | 12.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 32.0% | 7.0% | 10.9% |
| Angels | Road | 29.6% | 9.1% | 8.2% | RH | 30.7% | 9.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.0% | 15.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.2% | 12.3% | 8.0% | RH | 28.8% | 11.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 15.8% | 10.4% |
| Reds | Road | 29.3% | 10.3% | 10.8% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 31.3% | 18.5% | 11.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | RH | 27.8% | 12.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 24.9% | 13.1% | 3.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 30.2% | 11.3% | 9.7% | RH | 29.8% | 10.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 29.3% | 12.0% | 13.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 34.1% | 16.8% | 13.1% | LH | 32.6% | 12.1% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.0% | 11.5% | 4.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.4% | 12.6% | 16.2% | RH | 34.8% | 13.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 38.4% | 22.4% | 20.9% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.8% | 11.5% | 10.3% | LH | 28.1% | 13.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Astros | Home | 32.8% | 15.8% | 15.4% | RH | 33.9% | 15.0% | 17.0% | L7Days | 24.4% | 12.7% | 11.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 33.7% | 15.3% | 15.6% | RH | 31.8% | 13.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 32.3% | 7.7% | 13.7% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.4% | 14.8% | 14.6% | RH | 33.9% | 15.2% | 15.8% | L7Days | 36.2% | 15.7% | 16.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.8% | 13.0% | 10.1% | RH | 32.2% | 14.0% | 14.7% | L7Days | 35.1% | 19.0% | 21.4% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.6% | 15.1% | 16.8% | RH | 32.4% | 14.2% | 12.6% | L7Days | 34.6% | 15.4% | 12.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 21.0% | 8.1% | 2.59 | 14.1% | 7.4% | 1.91 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 19.6% | 10.0% | 1.96 | 22.4% | 10.2% | 2.20 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.33 | 22.6% | 9.8% | 2.31 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 17.4% | 8.1% | 2.15 | 10.8% | 9.0% | 1.20 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 17.3% | 6.1% | 2.84 | 17.8% | 5.4% | 3.30 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 20.5% | 9.6% | 2.14 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 1.62 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 21.8% | 10.1% | 2.16 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.04 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 27.7% | 11.3% | 2.45 | 24.2% | 11.0% | 2.20 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.6% | 9.7% | 2.12 | 22.1% | 10.1% | 2.19 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 24.8% | 10.0% | 2.48 | 34.8% | 10.7% | 3.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 26.3% | 10.9% | 2.41 | 21.0% | 9.4% | 2.23 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 18.1% | 10.3% | 1.76 | 16.2% | 9.0% | 1.80 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 10.8% | 5.2% | 2.08 | |||
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 21.6% | 11.7% | 1.85 | 19.5% | 11.4% | 1.71 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 18.3% | 10.8% | 1.69 | 13.3% | 9.9% | 1.34 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 25.9% | 11.8% | 2.19 | 27.4% | 13.3% | 2.06 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 10.7% | 6.5% | 1.65 | 7.5% | 3.5% | 2.14 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 27.5% | 14.0% | 1.96 | 33.9% | 14.2% | 2.39 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 17.9% | 8.7% | 2.06 | 15.6% | 7.2% | 2.17 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 30.5% | 15.0% | 2.03 | 29.2% | 15.0% | 1.95 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 14.8% | 6.0% | 2.47 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 2.50 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI |
Dallas Keuchel has a SwStr above 9% in each start over the last month. His lower strikeout rate is not reason for concern.
Ian Kennedy had a 6.0 SwStr% two starts back, but it’s been above 11% in each of his other four starts over the last month. So while, his K% is still a bit ridiculous over the last month, there’s some impressive stuff going on there.
Jeremy Hellickson is still missing bats at a substantial rate equal to his season SwStr% and saw a bounce back in strikeouts in his last start.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 2.87 | 3.66 | 0.79 | 3.41 | 0.54 | 3.44 | 0.57 | 1.85 | 4.01 | 2.16 | 3.95 | 2.1 | 3.58 | 1.73 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 2.5 | 4.04 | 1.54 | 4.06 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 1.06 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 3.68 | 1.08 | 2.88 | 0.28 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.83 | 3.89 | 1.06 | 3.78 | 0.95 | 3.53 | 0.7 | 1.97 | 3.57 | 1.6 | 3.43 | 1.46 | 3.21 | 1.24 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 5.5 | 4.9 | -0.6 | 5.06 | -0.44 | 5.51 | 0.01 | 7.16 | 7.07 | -0.09 | 7.27 | 0.11 | 6.2 | -0.96 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 5.01 | 4.83 | -0.18 | 4.79 | -0.22 | 4.81 | -0.2 | 4.98 | 5.04 | 0.06 | 5.2 | 0.22 | 6.28 | 1.3 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.7 | 3.8 | -0.9 | 3.55 | -1.15 | 3.94 | -0.76 | 2.84 | 4.49 | 1.65 | 4.15 | 1.31 | 4.37 | 1.53 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 5.52 | 4.6 | -0.92 | 4.61 | -0.91 | 4.17 | -1.35 | 7.27 | 5.32 | -1.95 | 5.35 | -1.92 | 4.18 | -3.09 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 2.83 | 3.75 | 0.92 | 3.66 | 0.83 | 3.37 | 0.54 | 2.25 | 3.53 | 1.28 | 3.64 | 1.39 | 3.06 | 0.81 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 4.32 | 4.68 | 0.36 | 5.04 | 0.72 | 4.91 | 0.59 | 2.61 | 4.75 | 2.14 | 5.25 | 2.64 | 3.98 | 1.37 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.28 | 3.97 | -0.31 | 4.49 | 0.21 | 5.38 | 1.1 | 4.55 | 2.79 | -1.76 | 3.2 | -1.35 | 5.09 | 0.54 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.6 | 3.59 | 0.99 | 3.33 | 0.73 | 2.93 | 0.33 | 6.17 | 4.32 | -1.85 | 4.13 | -2.04 | 4.64 | -1.53 |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 5.15 | 4.63 | -0.52 | 4.9 | -0.25 | 4.11 | -1.04 | 4.28 | 5.23 | 0.95 | 5.56 | 1.28 | 4.53 | 0.25 |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 7.98 | 6.42 | -1.56 | 5.46 | -2.52 | 5.12 | -2.86 | |||||||
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.84 | 3.9 | 0.06 | 3.78 | -0.06 | 4.21 | 0.37 | 2.25 | 3.94 | 1.69 | 3.82 | 1.57 | 3.27 | 1.02 |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 6.07 | 4.71 | -1.36 | 4.77 | -1.3 | 5.22 | -0.85 | 4.5 | 5.48 | 0.98 | 5.26 | 0.76 | 3.98 | -0.52 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.74 | 3.67 | -0.07 | 4.04 | 0.3 | 3.71 | -0.03 | 3.62 | 3.6 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 0.34 | 4.16 | 0.54 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.37 | 5.42 | 1.05 | 5.03 | 0.66 | 4.86 | 0.49 | 6.91 | 5.88 | -1.03 | 5.56 | -1.35 | 5.51 | -1.4 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.25 | 3.3 | -1.95 | 3.24 | -2.01 | 3.89 | -1.36 | 3.72 | 2.96 | -0.76 | 2.75 | -0.97 | 3.73 | 0.01 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.41 | 4.71 | 0.3 | 4.63 | 0.22 | 4.11 | -0.3 | 4.6 | 4.85 | 0.25 | 4.69 | 0.09 | 4.07 | -0.53 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.43 | 2.68 | 0.25 | 2.43 | 0 | 1.99 | -0.44 | 3.98 | 3.47 | -0.51 | 3.31 | -0.67 | 2.55 | -1.43 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.69 | 5.69 | 0 | 5.75 | 0.06 | 5.13 | -0.56 | 5.29 | 5.74 | 0.45 | 5.74 | 0.45 | 5.59 | 0.3 |
| Braden Shipley | ARI |
Aaron Sanchez has a 78.8 LOB%. That plus three unearned runs (out of 43) are probably just enough ot separate his ERA from his estimators by just over half a run. He’s stranded 87.7% with a .248 BABIP over the last month.
Carlos Martinez has a .266 BABIP 52 points lower than last year, while the biggest change is a drop in his LD rate that may not be sustainable. He doesn’t induce any popups. This has led to an 80.1 LOB%. If we give him credit for his FIP in a good park, and his 10.0 HR/FB is similar to last year, he’s still a good pitcher, though we’d like to see a few more strikeouts.
Dallas Keuchel has a 68.6 LOB% with a 17.2 HR/FB that’s been just league average at home. Over the last month, his strand rate is up to 81.9%, but I’m going to give him credit for his season estimators because of the reduced strikeout rate despite the higher SwStr%.
Jake Arrieta has seen his ERA rise as well as his BABIP in recent starts as he hasn’t been generating frequent amounts of weak ground balls in over a month. There’s absolutely further concern for his BABIP along with his 8.3 HR/FB if this harder contact more often in the air and on the line trend continues.
Jake Peavy has a 65.5 LOB% nearly 10 points below his career average and each of the last two seasons. His 8.5 HR/FB might be pretty standard for that park, buying more into a FIP that might make him occasionally useful in spots like this at home.
Michael Pineda does not have a good BABIP profile and has now concerningly allowed a hard contact rate of at least 37.5% in four of his last five starts. That’s disappointing because hard contact was below 30% in three of four June starts before that. His 68.4 LOB% is right around his career mark right now and an 18.2 HR/FB is a few points higher than last season, but league HRs are up in general. He is capable of improving on those overall numbers, as he showed in June, but may never be a guy who completely lives up to his peripherals, at least not while pitching half his games in Yankee Stadium.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.281 | 0.281 | 0 | 0.22 | 9.2% | 86.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.289 | 0.320 | 0.031 | 0.219 | 7.4% | 90.7% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.293 | 0.266 | -0.027 | 0.167 | 2.5% | 88.3% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.285 | -0.02 | 0.225 | 6.9% | 86.0% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.301 | 0.295 | -0.006 | 0.232 | 10.9% | 92.1% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.008 | 0.203 | 11.5% | 88.3% |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.306 | 0.323 | 0.017 | 0.244 | 4.7% | 84.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.303 | 0.253 | -0.05 | 0.16 | 11.5% | 83.9% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.304 | 0.256 | -0.048 | 0.137 | 16.1% | 83.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.292 | 0.255 | -0.037 | 0.19 | 11.1% | 84.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.257 | 0.260 | 0.003 | 0.202 | 7.1% | 86.0% |
| Jake Peavy | SFO | 0.287 | 0.316 | 0.029 | 0.188 | 10.6% | 87.7% |
| Jarred Cosart | FLA | 0.295 | 0.314 | 0.019 | 0.286 | 0.0% | 90.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.304 | 0.278 | -0.026 | 0.246 | 13.7% | 84.0% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | COL | 0.318 | 0.338 | 0.02 | 0.198 | 8.1% | 88.1% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.310 | 0.265 | -0.045 | 0.181 | 11.3% | 83.0% |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.291 | 0.281 | -0.01 | 0.202 | 2.8% | 91.3% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.296 | 0.342 | 0.046 | 0.227 | 3.0% | 84.7% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.298 | 0.291 | -0.007 | 0.229 | 9.1% | 87.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.304 | 0.344 | 0.04 | 0.217 | 5.3% | 82.6% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.301 | 0.320 | 0.019 | 0.194 | 5.3% | 92.7% |
| Braden Shipley | ARI | 0.315 |
Ian Kennedy has a great BABIP profile that doesn’t even get highlighted in the chart above because he has such a high fly ball rate with 16 popups on the season. His BABIP is nearly 50 points lower than last year, but let’s compare the OF he was dealing with in SD vs the one in KC. Yes, it’s probably nearly that much of a different. He has a career .288 BABIP dealing with average or worse defensive OFs nearly his entire career.
Noah Syndergaard doesn’t have a great BABIP profile, though he does have the lowest Z-Contact% on the board and one of the lowest marks in the league. Watching most of his starts, I feel safe in saying that early on, this was mostly bad luck with so many weakly hit batted balls finding grass. Contact has been a bit harder lately, but still not deserving of this BABIP. The defense does him few favors as well.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It looks like we have four very strong arms before a decent sized gap down towards the next couple and then a bit of a gap after that too. In point per dollar terms, I really almost want to skip a tier to emphasize the separation. It’s a very top heavy day and I regret an inability to find much at the bottom of the board with the lone cheapie I am coming up with more due to park and matchup, lacking any significant upside.
Value Tier One
Dallas Keuchel (3t) may not have the most upside on the slate, but I believe him to have one of the higher floors with an expectation at least that of what similar ground ball pitchers with a league average strikeout rate that are priced $1K to $2K higher tonight have. The Yankees are terrible vs RHP and, at worse, should be pounding the ball into the ground all night. While there’s might be an expectation for reduced strikeouts, his increased SwStr% over the last month might cancel that out and still keep him somewhere around league average.
Value Tier Two
Noah Syndergaard (1) drops down a tier due to the tough matchup, but is still our top overall pitcher tonight and his cost is still pretty reasonable considering how dominant he’s been.
Michael Pineda (3t) obviously has immense upside for less than $9K, but also great risk with the harder contact over the last month a bit more troubling. He stands a good chance of generating a lot of Ks tonight, which should at least temper the possibility of a complete daily fantasy blowup more than a real baseball one. There’s more of a concern to the Yankees than us if he serves up a few runs with those strikeouts.
Value Tier Three
Jake Arrieta (2) is in a good spot and has a nice looking strikeout to walk rate over his last two starts. Contact is still a concern as he’s still not getting those weak ground balls. His price is reduced a bit on FanDuel, which compensates a bit, but he’s still the highest priced pitcher on either site.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez (5t) is similar to the pitcher directly below in that we’re going to likely be relying on batted ball outcomes and an elite ground ball rate at a high cost, but he may have a bit more ability to generate swings and misses and is in a much more favorable park tonight. In fact, I have them both about neck and neck overall and in terms of value on each site and would probably lean towards treating them similarly. Flip a coin.
Aaron Sanchez (5t) has been striking out very few batters over the last month, though I don’t think his upside is that low (and the Padres should assist). While batted ball dependent pitchers always make for riskier propositions, especially at higher prices, this seems like a good spot with the majority of San Diego’s power coming from the right side. He is near the cut off for a reason and I anticipate myself going another way with more upside in most situations where I can afford him though.
Ian Kennedy has increased upside at home, but decreased upside in this start against a low strikeout offense, but also a lower powered one.
Jeremy Hellickson is a marginal pitcher in a marginal spot, but with some upside. Unfortunately, he’s probably more viable on two pitcher sites where you might just be looking for someone to plug in who’s likely to not do too much damage, but his cost is a bit more elevated on DraftKings ($8.3K).
Jake Peavy has some upside in a great spot at home for less than $7K and we do want at least one low priced pitcher today, but he’s only struck out more than six twice this season. He’s a fine second pitcher on DraftKings for $6.1K on a board otherwise dominated by high priced pitchers.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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