Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, June 18th

Very busy week personally, so introductions are going to be kept short. This might even make some people happy. I should probably conjure up something more generic for exactly occasions like this.

Monday’s slate is a nice size and has a few Cy Young hopefuls on it, one at Coors.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Pitcher Team Team
Def
SIERA
L2Yrs
IP/GS
L2Yrs
GB%
L2Yrs
Park
Run
Hm/Rd
xFIP
SIERA
L14
Opp Opp
Hm/Rd
Opp L/R
wRC+
Opp L7
wRC+
Andrew Suarez Giants -6.3 3.51 5.3 49.0% 0.93 3.05 4.16 Marlins 81 83 95
Bartolo Colon Rangers -1.1 4.65 5.4 43.4% 1.04 4.89 5.71 Royals 83 83 33
Caleb Smith Marlins -3.7 4.08 4.9 27.4% 0.93 4.52 4.57 Giants 119 100 54
Dylan Covey White Sox -5 4.93 5.2 52.4% 1.06 5.54 2.99 Indians 121 102 87
Erick Fedde Nationals -5.6 4.16 5.2 57.5% 1.01 3.91 3.93 Yankees 112 113 102
Gerrit Cole Astros 4.8 3.64 6.1 43.8% 0.87 3.36 3.80 Rays 95 99 74
Ian Kennedy Royals 3.6 4.57 5.4 33.6% 1.04 5.10 5.11 Rangers 82 87 104
Jacob deGrom Mets -3.1 3.32 6.4 44.8% 1.33 3.21 2.77 Rockies 83 76 91
Jaime Barria Angels 5.6 4.21 5.1 39.0% 0.93 3.66 5.31 Diamondbacks 88 80 113
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 6.3 4.61 5.4 46.2% 0.98 4.68 3.55 Pirates 112 99 123
Kenta Maeda Dodgers -2.3 3.66 5.1 40.1% 1.01 3.92 7.26 Cubs 105 103 83
Matt Andriese Rays -1.3 3.84 4.8 43.9% 0.87 4.34 3.79 Astros 101 113 177
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 0.5 3.55 6.5 51.6% 0.97 3.77 3.36 Phillies 102 94 128
Nick Pivetta Phillies -7.4 4.01 5.1 43.1% 0.97 3.36 4.00 Cardinals 97 94 100
Sonny Gray Yankees 4.8 4.20 5.6 51.8% 1.01 3.60 3.77 Nationals 90 93 74
Trevor Bauer Indians 7.1 3.77 6.0 47.4% 1.06 3.15 2.02 White Sox 94 95 67
Trevor Williams Pirates -2.5 4.68 5.4 45.8% 0.98 4.48 5.25 Brewers 99 101 106
Tyler Anderson Rockies 0.9 4.14 5.6 44.0% 1.33 4.30 3.52 Mets 95 65 70
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 12.6 5.05 5.3 57.1% 1.01 4.51 4.59 Dodgers 112 106 108
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 3.5 3.61 6.1 45.1% 0.93 3.48 4.34 Angels 99 110 108


Andrew Suarez does not miss a lot of bats, which should close the gap between his ERA and estimators in the wrong direction, but he does have one of the top park adjusted matchups on the board. The Marlins transition from pitcher’s park to pitcher’s park and have a split low 81 wRC+ with a 16.6 K-BB% on the road. Also, an 8.8 HR/FB and 10.8 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.

Caleb Smith has pitched into the seventh in three of his last five starts, the only three times he’s done so this season, so perhaps things are changing. These outings were against the Mets, Padres and Giants though, so maybe it was just a function of matchup. Expectedly, though, strikeouts are way down. He has just a 19.2 K% over his last four starts, but he has just four starts this year below a 9.5 SwStr%, so he should remain around a league average K%. He does oddly have the third highest rate of Barrels/BBE (9.8%), despite the sixth lowest aEV (86.8 mph). He remains in an extremely negative run environment on the road. Though the Giants are predominantly right-handed and have hit well at home, the park still pushes this in the pitcher’s favor and he has a reverse split.

Gerrit Cole allowed two HRs for the third time this season, but four runs for the first time in Oakland. He still completed six innings, which he’s now failed to do just once this season, but six strikeouts was his second lowest total of the season. In fact, his strikeouts are down below 30% over the last month and the swinging strike rate is actually below average over that span. It’s not a velocity thing and he’s actually throwing his fastball in favor of a curveball that has a .209 xwOBA and 38.2 Whiff% that are both better than his slider (.257 xwOBA, 38 Whiff%). Before we start searching for what’s wrong, let’s realize he’s still generally throwing quality starts with seven or eight strikeouts over the last month, with two of those starts against Boston and Cleveland. He pitches in the most negative run environment on the board and has a 27.2 K% over the last seven days.

Jacob deGrom has thrown seven innings or more in six straight starts, missing eight strikeouts (by just one) for the first time in that span last time out. Remove the last start before a short DL stint and the first one back and you can add three more starts to that list. His 15.5 SwStr% is best on the board, a point and a half better than any other pitcher. His .248 xwOBA, 84.9 mph aEV, 2.4% Barrels/BBE and 26.7% 95+ mph EV are all best on the board. It’s been pure dominance. He’s at Coors tonight, but it’s not that terrible this year. The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ and 14.6 K-BB% at home, 76 wRC+ and 15.3 K-BB% vs RHP.

Jaime Barria has struck out three or fewer batters in four of his eight starts, but just once in his last five (last time out actually) and the swinging strike rate gives us much more reason for optimism. He has a 24.4 K% in five AAA starts as well. He has allowed five HRs over his last three starts, but all six of his HRs have come on the road this season (TEX, NYY, SEA). His four-seamer (.441 xwOBA, 93.7 mph aEV) is terrible, but his slider (.286 xwOBA, 36.1 Whiff%) is much better. He throws both about one-third of the time. The Diamondbacks have a 25 K% vs RHP (25.7 K% on the road).

Kenta Maeda left a high upside spot against the Phillies early two starts back, missed two weeks, and returned to walk three Rangers with just one strikeout. The good news is that the velocity has bounced back from the Philly start, though his Zone% was below his season rate in both starts with the exact same 7.9 SwStr%. This all comes after throwing 111 pitches three starts back (sigh). While there’s some concern, he still has some of the best numbers on the board, though not the most ideal matchup at Wrigley (Cubs 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP, 10.6 K-BB% at home) even if the Cubs are not hitting for a ton of power (11 HR/FB at home and vs RHP).

Miles Mikolas has a nearly league average K% and SwStr% over the last month and has failed to pitch into the sixth inning just twice all season, once by one out in his first start of the season. He’s allowed more than two runs just twice since his second start of the year. His .243 xwOBA over the last 30 days is best on the board. The Phillies have been hot (22 HR/FB last seven days), but it’s a high upside spot (26.9 K% vs RHP).

Nick Pivetta has not exceeded five innings in four straight starts, allowing 10 ERs over the last two. He’s sustained a 24.8 K% over this span and a league average 31% hard hit rate. In fact, he has a .279 xwOBA over the last 30 days. A .347 BABIP and 65.3 LOB% have been the issue, though the hard hit rate has increased a bit in his last two starts (one at Wrigley). Without anything seeming far out of line, I’m going to continue giving him the benefit of the doubt here, though I am a bit concerned about a workload that has had him throw exactly 86 or 91 pitches in four straight starts. The Cardinals have a 17.4 HR/FB, but 25.1 K% on the road.

Trevor Bauer has been fantastic, pitching into the eighth inning in four of his last six starts. He has double digit strikeouts in four straight and four of five with a 37.8 K% that tops the board over the last 30 days. He’s in a favorable spot against the White Sox too (17.6 K-BB% on the road, 18.1 K-BB% vs RHP, 24.1 K-BB%, -3.2 Hard-Soft% last seven days). He struck out 12 of 29 White Sox faced last time out.

Zack Greinke is coming off back to back poor starts, one in Colorado and another against a contact prone Pittsburgh offense, where he actually struck out seven of 23 batters faced (four walks). He allows some hard contact. His 10.2% Barrels/BBE is second highest on the board and a concern against another contact prone offense (Angels 110 wRC+, 20 K% vs RHP), but it’s a favorable park and not an unwinnable matchup. There are two bats pitchers certainly should fear in this lineup, but not much at all beyond that right now.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.

League AVG (.288 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)

Jhoulys Chacin (.264 – 74.5 – 6.6) has been much better recently (struck out 14 of last 51 batters), but is in a tough spot against a decent offense that makes contact (17.5 K% at home, 19 K% vs RHP).

Dylan Covey (.333 – 71.7% – 0) had a 2.3 K-BB% in 70 major league innings last year. When they first came up, Dallas Keuchel and Corey Kluber used to stacking against favorites, somewhere around the beginning of this thing we call daily fantasy, so non-prospect turn arounds are things that can happen. Home runs will come, at least some of them and it’s not even that I don’t believe in this as much as I don’t believe in him to do it to Cleveland a second consecutive time, especially in their own park. He will now face them for the third time in seven starts and struggled maybe more than in any other start in his first trip there. It might be the worst park-adjusted matchup on the board.

Tyler Chatwood (.295 – 76.5% – 7.0) walked just two batters his last time out, just the fourth time he’s walked less than four this season. He now has a 0.0 K-BB% on the season.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Eric Fedde and Sonny Gray are only available on the FanDuel slate tonight and are maybe borderline options at best. The numbers for Washington look below average, but the lineup has recently been reinforced.

Matt Andriese is listed. It’s expected that he’ll follow Ryne Stanek, but neither one of them are really usable. Andriese has exceeded 50 pitches just once this season.

Tyler Anderson has completed seven innings in back to back starts, allowing just three runs with 11 strikeouts, both on the road. The matchup isn’t terrible against a Mets’ offense with a 65 wRC+, 26.3 K% and 6.6 HR/FB vs LHP, but they got on track a bit in Arizona over the weekend and his work at home hasn’t been the best this year.

Trevor Williams is not nearly as bad as his ERA over the last month, which comes with an almost reasonable .341 xwOBA. This is not to say he’s been good at all and he certainly doesn’t miss enough bats for our purposes, but he has the second lowest aEV on the board (85.1 mph).

Ian Kennedy is in a high upside spot, but he’s not a high home run risk who doesn’t miss many bats and there are a number of high upside spots tonight.

Bartolo Colon has one of the top park adjusted matchups on the board. The Royals have a 7.3 HR/FB at home, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP and 5.3 HR/FB over the last week, but he’s allowed 18 HRs over his last 10 starts and has a board high .463 xwOBA over the last 30 days.

Peripherals (Pitcher)

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

Pitcher Team Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St% Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St% Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St% Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St%
Andrew Suarez Giants L2 Yrs 22.8% 5.0% 16.7% 23.5% Season 22.8% 5.0% 16.7% 23.5% Home 23.4% 2.1% 17.4% 18.6% L14Days 20.0% 7.5% 10.0% 24.1%
Bartolo Colon Rangers L2 Yrs 15.0% 4.5% 15.5% 20.8% Season 15.6% 3.6% 23.5% 32.3% Road 13.0% 4.2% 15.2% 24.5% L14Days 9.5% 7.1% 28.6% 51.4%
Caleb Smith Marlins L2 Yrs 26.2% 10.4% 10.4% 17.0% Season 27.8% 10.0% 8.9% 18.0% Road 26.6% 11.5% 10.3% 8.5% L14Days 18.4% 4.1% 5.6% 10.8%
Dylan Covey White Sox L2 Yrs 16.2% 9.8% 18.9% 16.0% Season 22.2% 7.4% 10.4% Road 11.1% 10.3% 21.2% 22.4% L14Days 26.0% 5.5% -8.0%
Erick Fedde Nationals L2 Yrs 20.0% 8.3% 33.3% 22.3% Season 20.5% 4.6% 18.2% 27.3% Home 19.2% 6.9% 15.4% 17.0% L14Days 14.3% 4.8% 40.0% 47.0%
Gerrit Cole Astros L2 Yrs 26.0% 6.8% 14.2% 9.6% Season 36.7% 7.1% 12.1% 15.8% Home 26.5% 5.8% 12.9% 7.3% L14Days 28.0% 10.0% 12.5% 12.9%
Ian Kennedy Royals L2 Yrs 21.0% 8.7% 13.5% 24.0% Season 20.2% 8.5% 12.6% 20.8% Home 20.4% 10.0% 15.8% 29.7% L14Days 18.9% 11.3% 10.8%
Jacob deGrom Mets L2 Yrs 28.6% 6.7% 13.8% 8.6% Season 32.8% 6.7% 6.9% -1.4% Road 27.1% 6.5% 16.3% 8.3% L14Days 26.8% 3.6% 11.1% 5.1%
Jaime Barria Angels L2 Yrs 18.9% 5.3% 11.8% 20.2% Season 18.9% 5.3% 11.8% 20.2% Home 19.1% 4.8% 33.4% L14Days 9.1% 22.2% 26.3%
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers L2 Yrs 19.6% 9.6% 9.9% 13.3% Season 18.7% 9.7% 6.6% 22.0% Road 18.4% 9.4% 13.1% 14.6% L14Days 27.5% 7.8% 6.7% 21.9%
Kenta Maeda Dodgers L2 Yrs 26.0% 6.9% 14.1% 9.6% Season 28.1% 8.5% 9.3% 16.2% Road 25.2% 6.9% 17.0% 12.3% L14Days 4.4% 13.0%
Matt Andriese Rays L2 Yrs 21.8% 5.5% 15.2% 20.0% Season 23.8% 4.8% 10.8% 27.1% Road 20.9% 7.3% 14.9% 8.2% L14Days 14.8% 7.4% 35.0%
Miles Mikolas Cardinals L2 Yrs 18.7% 2.7% 10.0% 16.0% Season 18.7% 2.7% 10.0% 16.0% Road 18.4% 4.1% 16.7% 13.3% L14Days 20.0% 2.0% 7.7% 15.4%
Nick Pivetta Phillies L2 Yrs 25.0% 8.8% 15.4% 17.8% Season 26.9% 7.0% 9.9% 14.3% Home 28.5% 6.8% 16.7% 16.0% L14Days 23.4% 8.5% 16.7% 25.8%
Sonny Gray Yankees L2 Yrs 21.0% 8.7% 14.8% 13.1% Season 19.4% 10.5% 12.9% 16.8% Road 22.3% 8.0% 11.7% 15.5% L14Days 19.6% 8.7% 20.0% 6.1%
Trevor Bauer Indians L2 Yrs 25.6% 8.3% 12.9% 17.6% Season 31.1% 8.0% 6.1% 22.4% Home 27.1% 6.4% 16.0% 22.5% L14Days 39.3% 4.9% 8.8%
Trevor Williams Pirates L2 Yrs 17.7% 8.2% 10.9% 7.0% Season 16.4% 8.4% 9.4% 5.6% Home 17.8% 6.1% 7.9% 7.4% L14Days 12.1% 12.1% 16.7% 8.0%
Tyler Anderson Rockies L2 Yrs 21.1% 7.1% 15.2% 6.6% Season 20.5% 8.3% 13.5% 10.4% Home 21.7% 8.3% 12.5% 4.9% L14Days 20.8% 1.9% 7.1% 4.9%
Tyler Chatwood Cubs L2 Yrs 19.4% 14.3% 16.6% 9.8% Season 19.9% 19.9% 7.0% 12.2% Home 19.8% 15.3% 21.4% 9.8% L14Days 23.4% 19.2% -19.3%
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks L2 Yrs 25.2% 6.0% 15.2% 18.3% Season 26.2% 4.9% 16.5% 29.0% Road 24.6% 5.7% 17.2% 12.5% L14Days 23.5% 11.8% 27.3% 30.3%

Peripherals (Opponent)

OpTm Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St% Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St% Split K% BB% HR/FB Hd-St%
Marlins Road 24.3% 7.7% 11.9% 13.8% LH 20.9% 9.6% 8.8% 10.8% L7Days 19.9% 7.4% 10.1% 17.3%
Royals Home 19.3% 7.7% 7.3% 24.9% RH 18.6% 7.0% 8.2% 23.7% L7Days 23.9% 7.4% 5.3% 28.0%
Giants Home 23.2% 7.8% 13.6% 23.3% LH 23.0% 8.6% 13.2% 21.2% L7Days 21.1% 9.7% 8.5% 13.7%
Indians Home 20.1% 8.6% 15.4% 29.4% RH 22.0% 8.2% 14.4% 23.6% L7Days 19.1% 7.6% 7.8% 12.3%
Yankees Road 23.9% 7.9% 17.4% 17.2% RH 23.6% 9.5% 16.9% 18.0% L7Days 24.5% 7.7% 20.4% 24.2%
Rays Road 23.7% 7.4% 12.2% 15.1% RH 22.2% 8.1% 10.2% 16.6% L7Days 27.2% 8.9% 8.7% 16.4%
Rangers Road 25.5% 8.1% 11.9% 14.6% RH 25.7% 9.5% 13.9% 20.5% L7Days 20.0% 12.5% 8.9% 14.7%
Rockies Home 22.8% 8.2% 16.8% 12.1% RH 23.7% 8.4% 14.3% 11.5% L7Days 24.1% 6.5% 15.2% 28.7%
Diamondbacks Road 25.7% 9.1% 14.9% 17.5% RH 25.0% 9.9% 12.8% 19.2% L7Days 23.3% 9.8% 16.1% 36.7%
Pirates Home 17.5% 9.2% 9.1% 6.4% RH 19.0% 8.1% 10.1% 11.0% L7Days 17.7% 9.3% 14.0% 26.2%
Cubs Home 20.0% 9.4% 11.2% 9.6% RH 21.2% 9.7% 11.1% 12.5% L7Days 23.2% 11.2% 11.8% 18.2%
Astros Home 22.2% 8.9% 13.2% 11.0% RH 20.9% 9.2% 13.5% 17.9% L7Days 13.1% 10.4% 19.7% 29.1%
Phillies Home 24.6% 10.4% 13.9% 8.8% RH 26.9% 10.1% 13.9% 8.9% L7Days 25.1% 11.3% 22.0% 11.0%
Cardinals Road 25.1% 9.1% 17.4% 18.1% RH 22.5% 8.0% 13.6% 21.4% L7Days 17.8% 5.2% 18.0% 32.1%
Nationals Home 21.6% 9.9% 13.6% 11.8% RH 20.9% 9.5% 14.1% 12.4% L7Days 23.1% 7.1% 5.0% -1.6%
White Sox Road 24.7% 7.1% 13.9% 17.8% RH 24.9% 6.8% 11.5% 10.9% L7Days 29.4% 5.3% 8.6% -3.2%
Brewers Road 22.2% 7.6% 16.0% 12.2% RH 24.7% 8.4% 16.5% 17.3% L7Days 23.0% 8.4% 22.0% 23.7%
Mets Road 22.2% 9.3% 13.4% 22.0% LH 26.3% 10.0% 6.6% 13.5% L7Days 24.4% 8.9% 14.3% 28.6%
Dodgers Road 20.7% 10.6% 12.7% 19.1% RH 21.9% 9.1% 13.3% 16.7% L7Days 24.5% 10.9% 17.0% 28.6%
Angels Home 21.4% 9.0% 12.6% 20.2% RH 20.0% 8.7% 13.7% 21.6% L7Days 20.7% 9.1% 19.3% 28.7%

K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.7 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Pitcher Team K% Season SwStr% Season K%/SwStr% K% L30 Days SwStr% L30 Days K%/SwStr%
Andrew Suarez Giants 22.8% 7.1% 3.21 20.6% 6.7% 3.07
Bartolo Colon Rangers 15.6% 5.6% 2.79 13.9% 4.8% 2.90
Caleb Smith Marlins 27.8% 11.5% 2.42 22.0% 11.0% 2.00
Dylan Covey White Sox 22.2% 7.8% 2.85 24.6% 8.4% 2.93
Erick Fedde Nationals 20.5% 8.3% 2.47 20.5% 8.3% 2.47
Gerrit Cole Astros 36.7% 13.6% 2.70 29.4% 9.5% 3.09
Ian Kennedy Royals 20.2% 8.1% 2.49 18.3% 7.6% 2.41
Jacob deGrom Mets 32.8% 15.1% 2.17 33.5% 15.5% 2.16
Jaime Barria Angels 18.9% 11.8% 1.60 18.2% 12.3% 1.48
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 18.7% 9.2% 2.03 23.7% 10.7% 2.21
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 28.1% 13.6% 2.07 26.3% 12.4% 2.12
Matt Andriese Rays 23.8% 12.2% 1.95 18.0% 10.0% 1.80
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 18.7% 9.1% 2.05 19.9% 9.7% 2.05
Nick Pivetta Phillies 26.9% 11.1% 2.42 24.8% 10.4% 2.38
Sonny Gray Yankees 19.4% 9.3% 2.09 22.9% 10.1% 2.27
Trevor Bauer Indians 31.1% 13.1% 2.37 37.8% 14.2% 2.66
Trevor Williams Pirates 16.4% 7.0% 2.34 16.0% 6.2% 2.58
Tyler Anderson Rockies 20.5% 12.1% 1.69 16.5% 10.6% 1.56
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 19.9% 8.1% 2.46 17.0% 8.9% 1.91
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 26.2% 11.7% 2.24 25.4% 10.8% 2.35


Andrew Suarez has started 10 games. He had a 9.6 SwStr% in his first and that remains his high for the year.

Gerrit Cole has just a 9.5 SwStr% over the last month, down more than four points. He’s only surpassed 9.5% twice and one of those starts was actually against Boston.

Jaime Barria had at least a 13.5 SwStr% in four straight starts until his most recent.

ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.18 ERA – 4.16 SIERA – 4.12 xFIP – 4.22 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense-independent estimators.

Pitcher Team Season
ERA
Season
SIERA
DIFF Season
xFIP
DIFF Season
FIP
DIFF Season
DRA
DIFF ERA
L30
SIERA
L30
DIFF xFIP
L30
DIFF FIP
L30
DIFF
Andrew Suarez Giants 4.92 3.51 -1.41 4.92 -1.58 3.84 -1.08 3.32 -1.60 4.97 3.71 -1.26 3.52 -1.45 3.20 -1.77
Bartolo Colon Rangers 4.94 4.22 -0.72 4.94 -0.86 5.63 0.69 6.73 1.79 9.51 4.90 -4.61 4.94 -4.57 8.24 -1.27
Caleb Smith Marlins 3.75 3.86 0.11 3.75 0.39 3.55 -0.20 3.77 0.02 3.07 4.37 1.30 4.77 1.70 4.00 0.93
Dylan Covey White Sox 2.29 3.47 1.18 2.29 1.01 2.15 -0.14 5.24 2.95 1.53 3.10 1.57 2.96 1.43 1.85 0.32
Erick Fedde Nationals 5.91 3.67 -2.24 5.91 -2.28 4.39 -1.52 4.45 -1.46 5.91 3.69 -2.22 3.63 -2.28 4.39 -1.52
Gerrit Cole Astros 2.40 2.51 0.11 2.40 0.38 2.73 0.33 1.84 -0.56 3.66 3.42 -0.24 3.72 0.06 4.33 0.67
Ian Kennedy Royals 5.13 4.48 -0.65 5.13 -0.63 4.52 -0.61 5.10 -0.03 5.40 4.92 -0.48 4.91 -0.49 4.73 -0.67
Jacob deGrom Mets 1.55 2.74 1.19 1.55 0.91 1.98 0.43 2.06 0.51 1.26 2.53 1.27 2.29 1.03 1.80 0.54
Jaime Barria Angels 2.61 4.21 1.60 2.61 1.80 4.29 1.68 4.54 1.93 3.38 4.27 0.89 4.59 1.21 6.02 2.64
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 3.32 4.71 1.39 3.32 1.37 3.83 0.51 4.67 1.35 2.76 4.04 1.28 4.28 1.52 2.84 0.08
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 3.61 3.48 -0.13 3.61 -0.20 3.01 -0.60 1.99 -1.62 2.70 4.46 1.76 4.56 1.86 3.83 1.13
Matt Andriese Rays 3.27 3.07 -0.20 3.27 0.05 3.13 -0.14 3.52 0.25 3.07 3.66 0.59 4.04 0.97 4.38 1.31
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 2.43 3.55 1.12 2.43 0.93 3.09 0.66 3.18 0.75 2.12 3.58 1.46 3.61 1.49 2.46 0.34
Nick Pivetta Phillies 4.25 3.43 -0.82 4.25 -0.82 3.09 -1.16 3.14 -1.11 5.19 3.87 -1.32 3.82 -1.37 3.20 -1.99
Sonny Gray Yankees 4.98 4.58 -0.40 4.98 -0.58 4.45 -0.53 5.85 0.87 3.23 3.57 0.34 3.45 0.22 3.67 0.44
Trevor Bauer Indians 2.69 3.07 0.38 2.69 0.35 2.31 -0.38 2.51 -0.18 2.86 2.37 -0.49 2.33 -0.53 1.58 -1.28
Trevor Williams Pirates 4.38 4.82 0.44 4.38 0.28 4.20 -0.18 5.38 1.00 8.57 4.34 -4.23 4.26 -4.31 4.41 -4.16
Tyler Anderson Rockies 4.48 4.38 -0.10 4.48 -0.09 4.55 0.07 5.11 0.63 4.75 4.70 -0.05 4.73 -0.02 4.73 -0.02
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 4.12 5.92 1.80 4.12 1.12 4.75 0.63 7.56 3.44 6.20 6.50 0.30 5.8 -0.40 6.28 0.08
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 3.87 3.27 -0.60 3.87 -0.61 3.79 -0.08 2.23 -1.64 4.66 3.73 -0.93 3.76 -0.90 5.05 0.39


Andrew Suarez has a .322 BABIP and 63.4 LOB%. As mentioned above, a drop in his K% would raise his estimators, but probably not a run and a half.

Caleb Smith has a .253 BABIP, 83.9 LOB% and 8.7 HR/FB. He also has a .360 xwOBA over that span, so it seems he’s been extremely lucky.

Jacob deGrom has an 86.7 LOB% and 6.9 HR/FB.

Jaime Barria has a .261 BABIP and 88.7 LOB%, but his estimators should drop as his strikeout rate rises, which it does have the potential to do, though probably not more than a run and a half.

Miles Mikolas has a .259 BABIP and 78.5 LOB%. There’s a chance there’s not a ton of regression in those numbers or his 10 HR/FB.

Nick Pivetta has a .323 BABIP, but a poor defense, which may have difficulty with shifts?

BABIP Chart (2018 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.1 LD% – 10.3 IFFB% – 86.3 Z-Contact% – 36.5 Z-O-Swing%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Pitcher Team Team BABIP Pitcher BABIP Diff GB% LD% IFFB% Z-contact% Z-O-Swing%
Andrew Suarez Giants 0.295 0.322 0.027 49.0% 19.6% 8.3% 90.6% 38.1%
Bartolo Colon Rangers 0.305 0.246 -0.059 44.9% 22.3% 9.9% 92.9% 35.1%
Caleb Smith Marlins 0.291 0.273 -0.018 27.4% 22.3% 20.0% 82.6% 39.3%
Dylan Covey White Sox 0.291 0.333 0.042 61.0% 15.2% 4.0% 91.3% 36.2%
Erick Fedde Nationals 0.278 0.323 0.045 51.5% 15.2% 0.0% 87.5% 32.1%
Gerrit Cole Astros 0.272 0.249 -0.023 33.3% 19.3% 15.4% 79.3% 37.6%
Ian Kennedy Royals 0.309 0.330 0.021 30.1% 28.4% 12.6% 86.8% 37.7%
Jacob deGrom Mets 0.306 0.302 -0.004 43.8% 27.4% 22.4% 77.9% 32.3%
Jaime Barria Angels 0.296 0.261 -0.035 39.0% 19.5% 15.7% 84.5% 36.8%
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 0.270 0.264 -0.006 40.2% 20.9% 9.9% 89.6% 35.8%
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 0.291 0.329 0.038 37.7% 26.5% 3.7% 82.7% 35.6%
Matt Andriese Rays 0.272 0.289 0.017 49.1% 19.0% 10.8% 85.1% 39.1%
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 0.286 0.259 -0.027 51.6% 21.3% 10.0% 89.1% 31.7%
Nick Pivetta Phillies 0.302 0.323 0.021 41.7% 20.3% 9.9% 83.8% 37.8%
Sonny Gray Yankees 0.275 0.308 0.033 47.1% 22.8% 11.3% 89.4% 37.2%
Trevor Bauer Indians 0.287 0.303 0.016 45.7% 18.7% 11.0% 86.1% 33.5%
Trevor Williams Pirates 0.298 0.276 -0.022 41.3% 20.9% 10.6% 90.5% 35.9%
Tyler Anderson Rockies 0.309 0.281 -0.028 34.9% 24.3% 6.7% 82.6% 42.8%
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 0.262 0.294 0.032 56.5% 17.9% 11.6% 87.7% 35.6%
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 0.277 0.294 0.017 41.7% 22.1% 12.9% 82.3% 30.5%


Andrew Suarez doesn’t miss many bats in the strike zone. While he’s run some higher BABIPs in the minors, that’s generally the case for most pitchers.

Jaime Barria is a fly ball pitcher who has averaged a popup per start. The jury’s still out, but there’s nothing poor about his profile.

Kenta Maeda has a 26.7 LD%, low Z-Contact% and low aEV. His BABIP was 51 points lower last season. He should be fine if he’s healthy.

Miles Mikolas has a decent defense and fairly standard BABIP profile. The .259 mark may be a bit low.

StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .315 wOBA)

All stats from BaseballSavant.com.

Player Team xwOBA wOBA-xwOBA xwOBA
H/A
wOBA-xwOBA
H/A
xwOBA
L30 Days
wOBA-xwOBA
L30 Days
Effective
Velocity
Exit Velocity Barrels BBE 95+ MPH
ExV
BBE
Andrew Suarez Giants 0.335 -0.006 0.312 -0.047 0.319 -0.017 -1.900 88 7.6 32.500 157
Bartolo Colon Rangers 0.381 -0.049 0.370 0.000 0.463 -0.012 -1.900 90.5 8.1 44.100 247
Caleb Smith Marlins 0.327 -0.038 0.332 -0.021 0.360 -0.063 -2.100 86.8 9.8 33.700 184
Dylan Covey White Sox 0.293 -0.023 0.412 -0.002 0.274 -0.018 -0.700 90 2.9 41.000 105
Erick Fedde Nationals 0.401 -0.052 0.372 0.017 0.401 -0.052 0.000 91.7 12.1 51.500 33
Gerrit Cole Astros 0.277 -0.032 0.292 -0.007 0.319 -0.038 -0.600 88 7.1 41.300 196
Ian Kennedy Royals 0.372 -0.018 0.385 -0.029 0.355 0.006 0.000 88.9 9.7 37.300 236
Jacob deGrom Mets 0.248 -0.009 0.283 0.006 0.257 -0.016 1.000 84.9 2.4 26.700 206
Jaime Barria Angels 0.369 -0.072 0.340 -0.108 0.426 -0.052 -1.200 89.1 8.9 37.900 124
Jhoulys Chacin Brewers 0.324 -0.035 0.336 0.007 0.303 -0.040 -1.400 87.8 5.8 36.500 241
Kenta Maeda Dodgers 0.303 0.004 0.305 0.025 0.363 -0.061 -0.800 86.2 6.5 31.800 154
Matt Andriese Rays 0.328 -0.041 0.331 -0.008 0.304 0.000 -1.300 89.9 6.8 48.300 118
Miles Mikolas Cardinals 0.290 -0.038 0.324 -0.036 0.243 -0.024 -0.400 86.2 6.1 28.600 262
Nick Pivetta Phillies 0.315 -0.015 0.312 0.001 0.279 0.043 0.100 87.5 8.7 34.900 195
Sonny Gray Yankees 0.347 -0.015 0.300 -0.013 0.289 -0.001 -0.200 89.4 6.7 42.100 209
Trevor Bauer Indians 0.288 -0.022 0.321 -0.009 0.283 -0.009 -0.600 87.6 5.6 31.800 233
Trevor Williams Pirates 0.342 -0.029 0.324 -0.025 0.341 0.045 0.600 85.1 7.3 31.300 233
Tyler Anderson Rockies 0.315 0.013 0.315 0.027 0.328 0.000 -0.500 86.6 4.5 28.800 222
Tyler Chatwood Cubs 0.362 -0.030 0.352 0.018 0.376 0.006 -0.600 87.3 5.2 31.800 173
Zack Greinke Diamondbacks 0.335 -0.027 0.307 0.011 0.367 -0.013 -0.800 89.5 10.2 38.700 235


The most interesting thing I find here today, besides deGrom’s total dominance, is that while Zack Greinke has estimators a bit below his ERA, something we would have just expected to regress a few years ago, even if we suspected the contact was not ideal, this confirms to us that the contact has been worthy of a higher xwOBA. His .335 mark is not terrible and he still may be an above average pitcher, but there’s something to maybe looking more closely at his FIP than SIERA or xFIP. Though contact authority is not necessarily always predictive, he’s been trending this way for a while now.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever-evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Many of our contenders are either coming off rough outings or in difficult spots (deGrom), which makes things not as crystal clear as we might have hoped, though there’s certainly a lot of upside for quite a few arms on this slate if things break right.

Value Tier One

Nick Pivetta (5t) costs $7.5K or less and is striking out more than a quarter of batters faced with a sub-.300 xwOBA and 3.43 SIERA/xFIP with an even lower FIP. The matchup is even slightly favorable. While his recent work has not been his best, the biggest concern I’d have is the sudden decrease in workload after three straight starts above 95 pitches, so it seems they’ll let him go a bit if the performance warrants it.

Value Tier Two

Miles Mikolas (4) should increase his strikeout upside tonight and can usually be counted on for six innings or more. Strangely, he costs $1.2K more on FanDuel.

Trevor Bauer (1) is rolling…at least in terms of strikeouts. He has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts, but the upside is tremendous. So is the cost. He’s the most expensive FanDuel pitcher tonight and maybe we shouldn’t him to sustain this level of dominance, but the matchup is favorable with plenty of upside.

Value Tier Three

Jacob deGrom (2t) is only the third or fourth highest priced pitcher on either site, which does some of the work in compensating for Coors. It’s not a favorable spot, but the Rockies have been so bad, that we’re not totally off the best pitcher on the board at a reasonable cost there.

Zack Greinke (5t) is still missing a lot of bats. The spot is not great, but it’s winnable and his cost is now down around $9K, where I believe he still has some upside.

Andrew Suarez doesn’t even need to be a league average arm at a cost below $7K in a great spot.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Gerrit Cole (2t) hasn’t been much more than an above average pitcher over the last month. Not that that’s bad, but it’s hard to justify $13K with. He’s in a great spot tonight, however, so perhaps there’s a bounce back in the cards. There should be some skepticism at this point, though I’m not ready to abandon him yet.

Caleb Smith has seen his cost drop below $8K where there’s still probably some value in a great park.

Jaime Barria is in a high upside spot and should generate more strikeouts, though he’s not as good as his ERA and does cost more than $8K on DraftKings. While probably usable on either site, he’s more attractive for $1.3K less on FanDuel.

Kenta Maeda is a bit of a concern. I considered omitting him tonight and probably won’t have much (if any) of him in a matchup that’s not ideal, but there’s a chance he was just shaking off some rust last time out and if healthy, he is a high-quality pitcher.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

About the Author

MTro86
Matt Trollo (MTro86)

Matt has written for ReupSports in the past where he developed his unique pitching charts. He probably watches and reads more about baseball than any normal human being would find enjoyable, accumulating an incredible wealth of mostly useless knowledge, while he patiently waits for his jedi powers to manifest. In addition to writing the Advanced Pitching Charts column for RotoGrinders, MTro86 also heads up the premium MLB News Alerts during baseball season.