Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 8th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2017-05-09 04:15:48

Editor’s Note: Alex Wood, not Brandon McCarthy, will start tonight for LA.

One of the most fun things for a baseball fan is watching a hot young prospect come up and either quickly set the league on fire like the late Jose Fernandez or more slowly grow into the star everyone believed he was destined to be. Often we become frustrated when they more than occasionally bust. It’s also fun seeing guys who were never supposed to be that big of a deal that blossom into studs (Corey Kluber, Dallas Keuchel, or Jacob deGrom). One of my favorites though, is a different sort of animal.

This is the pitcher who maybe was or wasn’t supposed to be something once upon a time, but it never happened and he’s either barely hanging on in a bullpen or on his last chance at the bottom of the rotation for a second division team. Myaybe he’s even in the minors or out of the league altogether, pitching in independent ball. Then, fairly suddenly, without expectation, the breakout happens!

The first few positive starts we often write off as some sort of crazy small sample thing. Then we see the improved peripherals and become less skeptical, though still cautious, but it just doesn’t stop. Eventually have to accept their stardom.

For daily fantasy players, the earlier we buy in and hitch our wagons to the ascending star, the more satisfying…if we’re right. A couple of years ago, it was Rich Hill. Last year, it was Danny Duffy and Drew Pomeranz. This year, we’re still early enough in the season where we’re catching these candidates at reasonable prices on their way up. They may not all end up All Stars, but a couple may end up in the $10K price range soon. Being early identifiers of guys like Trevor Cahill (pitching today) and maybe Jason Vargas or JC Ramirez is what makes this game so much fun.

Tomorrow, we’ll update league averages for this season. The rest of the week we’ll take a look at some of the biggest changes (if any) from last season. Where as in the past, I’ve been most interested in looking at risking strikeout and HR rates, this year, I’m looking for potential shifts in BABIP and GB/FB rates (#FlyBallRevolution) with a look into why that may be.

As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.

Legend

Starting Pitching Main Chart

Carlos Martinez is one of many flawed high end pitchers tonight with flawed meaning there’s been one reason or another for caution in their season performance. For him, it’s been erratic walk and strikeout rates. Half of his walks came in one start though, but also, half of his strikeouts came in two. There are some more positives however. He’s had a double digit SwStr% in four of six starts and at least a 50% ground ball rate in each of his last three to push back up to exactly 50% for the season. The Marlins represent a favorable matchup. They additionally have a 90 sOPS+ vs GB pitchers, but are league average (99 sOPS+) vs power pitchers.

Jacob deGrom walked five for second time in four starts and failed to reach double digit strikeouts for the first time in four starts in his most recent in Atlanta. The walk thing is not a concern yet, as he’s walked two or fewer in his four remaining starts and has never had control issues before. He’s fifth in the majors in strikeout rate (31.6%) and third in swinging strike rate (15.7%), facing an offense that has shown virtually no power against RHP (5.9 HR/FB), though they do gain about 16% on overall offense vs power pitchers (106 sOPS+).

Jake Arrieta has allowed at least three runs in five straight starts and has gone beyond six innings just once, while pitching at reduced velocity. His six HRs allowed are more than one-third of the 16 he allowed last year, his most with the Cubs. The other side of that coin is that he’s failed to go at least 5.2 innings only once, has allowed more than three runs only twice, has the highest K-BB of his career (21.8%) and his last three starts have been up about a mph from his first three. Back to the unfortunate side again though, his GB rate has been below average in every start since his first (down over 10 points from last year) and his hard hit rate is league average (up six points), though is aEV is still a strong 84.6 mph. This has all resulted in a nearly 100 point BABIP increase. You would think fewer GBs might even help him in that respect, but the Cubs’ defense has not been as historically strong as last year. One reason might be Mr. Scwarber roaming around in the outfield, another is that they were historically good last year and that’s difficult (impossible?) to repeat. The Rockies at home are still an unfavorable matchup (19.7 HR/FB at home), but they’ve been bad enough that good pitchers are playable against them in Coors this year and he still is that, despite what the ERA says. They add just a 90 sOPS+ vs power pitchers.

Nathan Karns is coming off his best start of the season, striking out seven of 22 White Sox batters. Eighteen of his 26 strikeouts have come in his last three starts and he looks to be at the point we might be able to take advantage of his above average swing and miss stuff in the right situations. As always, a concern with him is that he doesn’t often go all the way through the order a third time, maxing out at six innings and 100 pitches this year. The odd thing has been the massive spike in ground ball rate (59%), which is more than 16 points above his career rate. That should help him against the Rays (15.2 HR/FB vs RHP) in a favorable park, where the strikeout rate should play up (25.9 K% vs RHP).

Trevor Cahill might have the most consistent strikeout rate on today’s slate (between 24 to 35% in every start). He’s had at least six in every start and only that few once with a 57.3 GB%. He’s not perfect (40 Hard%, 8.9 BB%), but the increased upside has made him incredibly DFS relevant. More curves (or knuckle-curves on Fangraphs), thrown a quarter of the time, getting whiffs a quarter of the time, seems to have made a significant difference. He’s getting ahead (career high 64.5 F-Strike%), getting batters to take strikes (career low 55.4 Swing%) and swing at balls (career high 34.8 O-Swing%, career low 52.8 O-Contact%). He gets an average at best Texas offense (23.4 K% vs RHP) minus a DH in a great home park. Additionally Texas has a second worst 71 sOPS+ against GB pitchers.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)

Blake Snell (.261 – 70.8% – 11.4) has been un-responsible (responsible?) for six unearned runs, 33% of his season run total. I should start baking that into quoted numbers. He has, by far, the top matchup on the board, but is rocking the 15% walk rate, which is basically never playable. He hasn’t gone past the fifth inning since his first start and has seen both K% and SwStr% drop below league average this year.

Gio Gonzalez (.257 – 92.2% – 10.8) is generating some favorable contact (0.9 Hard-Soft%, 83.6 mph aEV), but makes up for it with an 11.4 BB% with at least three in each of his last four starts and then seven his last time out. Baltimore is a favorable matchup vs LHP (26.3 K%), but he’s just under $9K in a tough park.

Antonio Senzatela (.233 – 79.7% – 10.3) is probably in the worst spot on the board with his 5.1 SwStr%. The Cubs did go 18 innings last night, but that still doesn’t boost him enough.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Masahiro Tanaka has pitched into the seventh inning in four straight starts, but perhaps part of what allows him to do that is a 17.0 K%. Though, with a 12.1 SwStr%, that’s probably not so much the case. It means he’s often getting to strike two, but not putting enough hitters away. The strikeouts should increase, but he hasn’t exceeded six in a game this year, while allowing five HRs. Cincinnati is similar to Yankee Stadium in its’ power friendliness. The 53.5 GB% should help mitigate some of that, but Tanaka has a career 14.1 HR/FB. Cincinnati is one of the hottest offenses on the slate. There may not be enough strikeouts here for a price tag in excess of $9K. He’s the most difficult cut today, but appears clearly behind the value potential of the pitchers we’re using.

Marcus Stroman has one-third of his season strikeouts in one start and left his last one with an arm issue after three innings. His ground ball rate has exceeded 55% in every start, but the Tribe is a tough enough opponent for healthy RHPs. The offense goes up 23% to a 120 sOPS+ when facing ground ball pitchers.

Brandon McCarthy had a nice paragraph on Saturday morning before I realized he had been pushed back until Sunday due to a shoulder issue. Then his start was rained out Sunday. He just missed out on the wish list that day against the Padres. Although the competition bump isn’t much at home against the Pirates here, the top of the board is much stronger today. As written on Saturday:

“His ERA is low due to an 81.2% strand rate, but his estimators are just okay. His strikeout rate is just above average, but his SwStr% just below it. The one area where he has excelled is contact management with a low hard hit rate, aEV, and Barrels rates… This is all fine, though not especially desirable, if he costs around $8K, which he does, on FanDuel. His $9.4K price tag on DraftKings is just too high.”

His cost remains the same on FanDuel, but has dropped $800 on DraftKings, still probably too high, especially for a guy who was pushed back due to a potential shoulder issue and has a history of them throughout his career. I’d probably use several pitchers from this list, along with those below before him, including those just above him and possibly even Blake Snell.

Kendall Graveman is not has seen his velocity drop each start to where he now doesn’t sit much higher than last season and throwing just the one pitch harder nearly 90% of the time has resulted in more hard contact (below 33% just once) in the air (ground ball rate above 33% just once) more often without a substantial increase in strikeouts. He gets a small bump if Mike Trout remains out, though that probably only moves him up a couple of spots on this list. The upside is still lacking and the Angels may strike out less with Revere over Trout.

Trevor Bauer is better than his ERA, but his SwStr% probably doesn’t support a K% much above average. His 14.1% Barrels/BBE also suggests that his FIP may be more accurate than his lower SIERA and xFIP. This is an instance where I find a 4.59 DRA makes some sense.

Ricky Nolasco is one of our Barrel Kings today, as he’s missing bats at nearly a league average rate (good), but has allowed a slate high 10.8% Barrels/PA. This Oakland lineup has been striking out more (24.1% vs RHP), but are no slouches (20.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 31.5% over the last week).

Adam Conley is a double digit walk machine with enough to strike out batters at a league average or better rate if he could throw enough strikes. The Cardinals are poor against LHP (22.8 K%, 5.8 HR/FB), but they do have a 120 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (Baseball-Reference). Despite possibly the best BABIP profile on the board, this just doesn’t appear to work out often enough for him to be worth the cost.

Kevin Gausman was ejected for hitting a Boston batter with a curveball in his last start. The umpire may have done the Orioles a favor.

Matt Moore is one of today’s three Barrel Kings. That’s not a good thing (91.6 mph aEV, 9.9% Barrels/PA, 28.5 Hard-Soft%). The Mets have struck out just 12.8% of the time over the last week with a 22.1 Hard-Soft%. Offense hasn’t recently been the problem, aside from Sunday.

Nick Martinez

Trevor Williams had a single digit K-BB% since 2015 at AAA and was the 15th rated prospect in the system via Fangraphs this season with a 40 FV (Future Value) grade. He was called a lead-armed sinkerballer who made too many mistakes. While that’s generated lots of ground balls in the minors, it’s translated to just 27.8% in 24.1 major league innings. He appears not to have the swing and miss stuff to come back from those mistakes either. Twelve of his 13 major league appearances (and all six this year) have come in relief, though he’s gone at least two innings four times this season. The Dodgers punish mediocre RHP.

Rookie Davis mocked me by going five shutout innings after I called him “Minor League” Davis his last time out. He still walked more batters than he struck out and is rewarded with an assignment against the Yankees. The fact that the Yankees went 18 innings last night doesn’t help him enough, though it may be sufficient reason to fade some of their bats.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Adam Conley could be interesting if he stopped walking people.

Kevin Gausman has a lot of problems and doesn’t even have a league average SwStr% this year.

Masahiro Tanaka has always run on the low end of K/SwStr, but has usually at least been at the bottom of an acceptable range. I expect some improvement in K%.

Trevor Bauer can not, nor ever has supported a 25.6 K%. His SwStr rate was 9.0% last year, it’s 9.0% this year, it’s 9.0% for his career.

ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Trevor Bauer and Matt Moore have generated such hard contact that perhaps their estimators don’t tell the full story or at least their non-FIP ones might not.

BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Only one pitcher is more than 53 points removed from his team’s BABIP and we don’t expect him to be around long.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Trevor Cahill (2) is up above $7K now, but still has given us value much beyond that and seems to have just above everything in his favor in this matchup. It’s a great spot when a pitcher can allow a few runs and still give you great value.

Value Tier Two

Jacob deGrom (1) is coming off his worst start of the season. He walked five, got nobody to chase (18.9 O-Swing%) and 47.1% of his batted balls were line drives. Yet, he still has a 21.3 K-BB% on the season and goes home to face another poor offense in a great park. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the board by at least $1K on either site, but still less than $11K.

Value Tier Three

Nathan Karns (4t) is suddenly a ground ball pitcher. While surprising, especially after moving to Kansas City, that’s never a bad thing and should help him against a powerful Tampa Bay lineup. While it’s more of a neutral overall matchup, it plays up for strikeouts, which has conveniently been one of his strengths. Even just six innings could get him decently past $7K here.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Carlos Martinez (3) has been inconsistent and is the second most expensive pitcher on either site, but he’s not in a bad spot against the Marlins and has gotten his ground ball groove back, which should make him a bit more comfortable on those days when he doesn’t have that double digit strikeout stuff, as happened last time out.

Jake Arrieta (4t) may actually be a better fantasy pitcher than last season despite what his ERA says. The Coors price reduction may be too significant this year, considering the home team’s offensive performance.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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