Advanced Stats – Pitching: Saturday, August 26th
Nine games on a Saturday night is a bit smaller than we’ve gotten used to lately. There are some interesting arms on the slate, but not really any to get overly excited about. However, there aren’t many pitchers you’d immediately want to attack either, if you’re considering using hitters tonight.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.8 | 5.79 | 6.03 | 40.7% | 0.96 | 5.13 | 4.74 | CHC | 95 | 96 | 98 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 2.1 | 4.78 | 5.01 | 39.7% | 0.98 | 4.59 | 3.89 | STL | 104 | 101 | 105 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | -4.6 | 3.88 | 5.11 | 41.1% | 0.91 | 4.2 | 2.46 | ANA | 98 | 97 | 101 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 1 | 4.42 | 4.37 | 43.4% | 0.98 | 4.54 | CHW | 90 | 87 | 83 | |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.1 | 4.02 | 6. | 44.6% | 0.98 | 3.88 | 4.67 | DET | 88 | 125 | 86 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.8 | 4.14 | 6.48 | 49.9% | 0.93 | 4.1 | 5.52 | OAK | 110 | 86 | 108 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | -0.3 | 4.51 | 5.13 | 40.6% | 1.03 | 4.75 | 4.38 | TOR | 91 | 90 | 77 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | -3.9 | 3.84 | 5.33 | 36.7% | 0.94 | 4.5 | 4.19 | MIA | 95 | 98 | 130 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 5.3 | 4.23 | 5.57 | 32.9% | 1.13 | 4.74 | 4.01 | BAL | 96 | 98 | 116 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -1.6 | 4.03 | 5.95 | 45.0% | 1.02 | 3.95 | 3.53 | CIN | 102 | 101 | 122 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2 | 4.09 | 5.91 | 46.8% | 1.01 | 3.71 | 4.12 | NYM | 107 | 92 | 96 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 3 | 4.41 | 5.53 | 40.3% | 1.09 | 4.68 | 4.58 | CLE | 104 | 103 | 90 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -6 | 4.12 | 5.66 | 43.8% | 1.13 | 4.2 | 5.23 | BOS | 93 | 92 | 89 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | -3 | 4.89 | 5.66 | 54.9% | 1 | 5.34 | 4.93 | ATL | 90 | 100 | 129 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 4 | 3.78 | 5.93 | 49.1% | 0.96 | 4.09 | 4.63 | PHI | 99 | 88 | 142 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 6.2 | 4.05 | 5.84 | 56.1% | 1.02 | 4.49 | 3.03 | PIT | 85 | 89 | 83 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | -4.1 | 3.41 | 6.66 | 40.9% | 1.13 | 3.73 | 3.91 | ARI | 104 | 77 | 61 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -0.7 | 4.51 | 5.92 | 32.3% | 1.03 | 4.85 | 5.85 | MIN | 91 | 100 | 107 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 1.1 | 4.57 | 4.81 | 39.4% | 1.09 | 4.62 | 4.06 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 93 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -0.3 | 4.15 | 5.91 | 54.1% | 0.98 | 3.7 | 4.46 | TAM | 98 | 104 | 136 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 1.8 | 5.35 | 4. | 40.1% | 0.94 | 4.96 | 4.37 | SDG | 81 | 87 | 74 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 1.7 | 4.44 | 5.4 | 51.9% | 1.01 | 4.62 | 5.89 | WAS | 112 | 102 | 31 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 3.4 | 3.89 | 5.37 | 49.7% | 0.89 | 3.87 | 3.13 | MIL | 93 | 92 | 71 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -9.8 | 4.22 | 5.64 | 43.7% | 0.93 | 4.15 | 6.45 | TEX | 82 | 89 | 113 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -1 | 4.97 | 5.32 | 0.413 | 1 | 5.26 | 5.89 | COL | 79 | 93 | 69 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 0.9 | 4.23 | 5.61 | 0.531 | 1.01 | 3.79 | 5.58 | SEA | 94 | 104 | 90 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -5.2 | 4.24 | 5.54 | 0.452 | 1.13 | 4.38 | 5.32 | SFO | 82 | 84 | 104 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.1 | 4.32 | 5.22 | 0.422 | 0.91 | 4.52 | 4.19 | HOU | 126 | 120 | 90 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7 | 5.15 | 5.18 | 0.445 | 1.01 | 5.06 | 4.53 | NYY | 113 | 111 | 108 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -2 | 4.44 | 5.78 | 0.479 | 0.89 | 4.51 | 5.05 | LOS | 118 | 108 | 97 |
Brad Peacock is the only pitcher on the board (entire day), who exceeds a 30% strikeout rate and one of five above a 12 SwStr% with none of the other three above 100 innings this year. Over the last month, only Lamet has a higher strikeout rate as a starter. His 28.3% 95+ mph EV is lowest on the main slate. He’s struggled a bit in run prevention over the last month due to a .397 BABIP, despite an 18.4 LD% and 2.6 Hard-Soft%. The Angels are a neutral offense in an extremely negative run environment. They have just a 2.9 K-BB% over the last week.
Dinelson Lamet has the second highest strikeout rate on the board (29.5%) and the highest over the last month (28.8%) despite a 1.8 point drop in SwStr%. He walked a season high six in his last outing, his fourth time in 15 starts with at least four. He’s allowed only four HRs over his last 10 starts. He’ greatly improved his contact management (0.0 Hard-Soft% over the last month) and finally dropped his barrels rate below double digits (9.6% per BBE). The Marlins are a neutral opponent, but with a 25.0 HR/FB over the last week. Stanton personally has a 250 HR/FB.
Kyle Hendricks is generating strikeouts at a league average rate with a low ground ball rate recently (43.3%), but just a 4.5 Hard-Soft% in four August starts. It’s not ideal, it’s not exciting, but it’s enough strikeouts with solid contact management against the Phillies (15.8 K-BB% vs RHP). The Phillies who also happen to be the hottest offense in baseball (28.8 HR/FB last seven days).
Madison Bumgarner has struck out exactly seven with two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts with six innings last time out the first time he hasn’t gone seven innings in one of those starts. The concern is a hard hit rate above 40% in three of his last four starts and a date in Arizona tonight. The Diamondbacks have a 23.3 Hard-Soft% at home, but 25.2 K% vs LHP. This current iteration of the Arizona lineup is improved against LHP, but will still strike out.
Ross Stripling hasn’t started a game this season, but around half of his relief outings have been multiple innings, over which he’s had an 18.8 K-BB% with just a 6.0 Hard-Soft%. While we’d expect some decline in a starting role, he can probably hold most of that for five innings or so and is one of the top strikeout spots on the board tonight, hosting Milwaukee (25 K% on the road and vs RHP) in one of the most negative run environments in baseball.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Kyle Freeland (.282 – 78.5% – 14.4) isn’t really out of line anywhere, despite estimators a full run or higher above his ERA. He does have an 8.3% unearned run rate, but that’s not too bad either. He’s also done well with ground balls (54.9%) and contact authority (84.5 mph aEV, 5.4 Hard-Soft%), but has just a 6.6 K-BB%, including five walks last time out.
Ben Lively (.298 – 72.6% – 6.1) has just a 3.0 K-BB%, but an 84.7 mph aEV and 28.5% 95+ mph EV through eight starts and not a terrible matchup against the Cubs.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Mike Leake should increase his strikeout rate against a Tampa Bay offense (24.9 K% vs RHP) lacking a DH tonight and is almost useful on this slate, but has gotten absolutely destroyed over the last month with an ERA above nine with a 29.5 LD%, though his 33.7 Hard% isn’t much above league average. He has a 48.5 Hard% over his last two starts though. I could still see him in an SP2 spot for $6K on DraftKings with a few additional strikeouts.
Buck Farmer returns from a two month stint in the minors to make his fourth start of the season. The first two were excellent (13 IP – 6 H – 0 ER – 3 BB – 16 K – 46 BF), but the latter two were disastrous (4.2 IP – 14 H – 13 ER – 5 HR – 1 BB – 6 K – 29 BF). His 14.6 K-BB% in 11 starts since returning to AAA is a bit below his 16.0% mark for the year there in 123 innings. His 3.28 FIP has been better than his 4.00 ERA. The matchup with the White Sox (15.9 K-BB% vs RHP) is interesting. They had been showing some improvement, but had three of their top four hitters missing last night. He may be worth a look if Delmonico or Garcia (Leury) are out again.
Mike Clevinger has some upside, but has gotten tattooed over his last two outings (7 IP – 6 ER – 3 HR – 7 BB – 9 K – 36 BF). He’s mixed in some long relief with starts recently and has some upside, but has only even completed five innings in one of his last four starts, over which his hard hit rate has been below 40% just once, including the relief outings.
Carlos Rodon struck out nine last time out, but has also now walked seven of his last 53 batters after two straight starts without a walk. That pushes his walk rate back into double digits (10.6%) and while he’s now struck out nine or more in five of his 10 starts, he’s struck out four or fewer in each of the other five with game by game swinging strike rates that reflect that. If you could stomach the possible disaster for a chance at that upside, consider that his 89.4 mph aEV and 40.5% 95+ mph EV are both highest on the slate. The Tigers punish LHP (18.4 K%, 23.7 Hard-Soft%), but have a 26.7 K% over the last week. Pay attention to the actual lineup submitted.
Tyler Skaggs has been fine. He’s been a perfectly league average arm with a league average strikeout rate and league average contact management. He’s just in a difficult spot against a Houston offense that does not strike out, even when going bad like they have been recently.
Taijuan Walker has not pitched well or deep into any game over his last three starts (15.1 IP – 10 R – 7 ER – 3 HR – 6 BB – 9 K – 73 BF), two of which have been on the road. He returns home to not a terrible matchup against the Giants, though there really are no strongly favorable spots in that park. His velocity was way up in his last start though.
Jason Hammel has been pretty much a lock for something close to six innings and three runs over the last two months. He’s been within an out of exactly that in five of his last nine starts with essentially a league average strikeout rate over that span. Contact has been a bit on the hard side though and he has one of the worst matchups on the board in Cleveland.
Blake Snell struck out eight last time out, only the second time he’s struck out more than six in a game this season. More importantly, he hasn’t walked more than two in any of his last six starts, going at least six innings in four of them with just a 25.2 Hard%. He’s not throwing more strikes (pitches in the zone), nor getting ahead of batters more often, but he is getting them to chase and swing more often overall for some reason. Slightly more changeups and fewer fastballs. It doesn’t make tremendous sense. He’s in a tough spot in St Louis against an offense with a 10 BB% vs LHP and 27.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week. He’s climbing up the list and worth watching, but this doesn’t appear the ideal matchup for him. The Cardinals also have a 107 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers.
Sean Newcomb has a 16.6 BB% over his last eight starts with fewer than three walks just once.
Odrisamer Despaigne has started one game this season and with a 2.4 K-BB% over 18.1 total innings, one wonders why he is doing so again, though his 82.3 mph aEV is lowest on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 10.3% | 7.4% | Home | 13.9% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.3% | 12.1% | Road | 21.1% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 29.0% | 11.3% | Road | 26.2% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 6.7% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.8% | 11.1% | Road | 27.0% | 14.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.7% | 8.5% | Home | 23.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 13.2% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.3% | Road | 20.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 11.0% |
| Dillon Gee | Twins | L2 Years | 16.9% | 6.6% | Road | 15.5% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 2.4% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 29.5% | 10.3% | Road | 29.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 14.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.7% | Home | 23.1% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 7.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.0% | Road | 21.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.2% | 8.8% | Home | 25.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.1% | Road | 19.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 4.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.1% | 7.6% | Road | 21.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.2% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.4% | 8.8% | Road | 12.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.9% | 6.7% | Road | 21.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 12.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 25.5% | 10.3% | Home | 23.8% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 9.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 26.7% | 5.6% | Road | 26.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 4.0% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 9.0% | Home | 22.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 9.6% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.6% | 12.7% | Home | 23.4% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 13.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 15.6% | 4.9% | Home | 16.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 4.8% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.5% | 11.3% | Home | 14.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.6% | Road | 16.7% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 8.0% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 6.7% | Home | 19.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 8.7% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.1% | Home | 21.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 22.7% | 13.4% | Home | 17.9% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.7% | 8.4% | Home | 20.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.5% | 7.0% | Home | 20.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 12.3% | 8.2% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.7% | 9.4% | Home | 22.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 16.3% | 10.4% | Road | 16.1% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 8.2% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.5% | 6.8% | Road | 15.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 7.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 22.7% | 9.6% | RH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.8% | 11.8% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.3% | 9.8% | LH | 21.0% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.4% |
| Angels | Home | 18.1% | 8.0% | RH | 19.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 15.9% | 13.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.5% | 7.4% | RH | 22.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 8.8% | LH | 18.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 26.7% | 6.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.6% | 9.2% | LH | 24.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.2% | 8.7% | RH | 20.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.8% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 9.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 22.5% | 6.0% | LH | 23.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.6% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 11.6% |
| Mets | Road | 21.5% | 8.3% | LH | 24.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 23.0% | 11.3% |
| Indians | Home | 19.3% | 10.1% | RH | 19.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.3% | RH | 19.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.2% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 7.3% | LH | 18.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 8.5% | RH | 23.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | LH | 25.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.5% |
| Twins | Road | 21.7% | 9.2% | RH | 22.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.8% |
| Royals | Road | 20.7% | 6.4% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 16.3% | 5.1% |
| Rays | Road | 24.8% | 8.9% | RH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 9.0% |
| Padres | Road | 25.8% | 7.2% | RH | 25.2% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 6.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 20.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.0% | 8.6% | RH | 25.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.1% | 9.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.3% | 7.9% | LH | 24.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.3% | 7.5% | LH | 23.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.4% | RH | 20.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.1% |
| Giants | Road | 19.2% | 7.9% | RH | 19.4% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.9% |
| Astros | Road | 17.9% | 8.4% | LH | 16.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.2% | 10.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 9.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.2% | 10.5% | RH | 22.0% | 10.4% | L7Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 6.1% | 11.5% | 2017 | 31.5% | 6.1% | 11.5% | Home | 28.6% | 10.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 2017 | 32.5% | 11.7% | 12.9% | Road | 32.5% | 9.9% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.7% | 11.5% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.0% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 2017 | 27.9% | 5.4% | 1.3% | Road | 30.0% | 7.5% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | -4.0% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 30.5% | 16.2% | 9.5% | 2017 | 33.3% | 26.3% | 16.6% | Road | 16.3% | 5.3% | -4.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 2017 | 32.3% | 19.6% | 19.0% | Home | 27.1% | 15.2% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 10.0% | 15.1% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 12.5% | 14.5% | 2017 | 36.1% | 11.1% | 21.5% | Road | 32.2% | 11.4% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 9.5% | 6.7% |
| Dillon Gee | Twins | L2 Years | 27.7% | 15.0% | 6.3% | 2017 | 22.3% | 13.5% | -6.4% | Road | 27.2% | 18.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% |
| Dinelson Lamet | Padres | L2 Years | 35.9% | 13.8% | 20.2% | 2017 | 35.9% | 13.8% | 20.2% | Road | 39.0% | 15.6% | 22.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.2% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 2017 | 31.0% | 11.0% | 13.1% | Home | 27.0% | 13.0% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 4.2% | 12.7% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.8% | 11.6% | 7.9% | 2017 | 31.7% | 16.7% | 7.4% | Road | 30.6% | 14.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 28.6% | 22.8% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 2017 | 28.3% | 10.3% | 7.0% | Home | 31.8% | 12.4% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.8% | 14.7% | 2017 | 31.0% | 9.9% | 14.0% | Road | 34.2% | 15.0% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.2% | 16.2% | 13.9% | 2017 | 34.4% | 16.5% | 16.1% | Road | 33.3% | 15.0% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 27.8% | 17.2% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.4% | 5.3% | 2017 | 29.8% | 14.4% | 5.3% | Road | 33.3% | 16.4% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 18.2% | 9.7% |
| Kyle Hendricks | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2017 | 33.6% | 14.5% | 11.8% | Road | 27.8% | 11.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 29.0% | 16.1% | 7.7% | 2017 | 29.0% | 16.1% | 7.7% | Home | 32.1% | 19.2% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Years | 32.3% | 10.6% | 13.5% | 2017 | 36.7% | 10.1% | 19.7% | Road | 33.0% | 13.6% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 48.7% | 14.3% | 43.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.0% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 2017 | 27.7% | 11.1% | 7.9% | Home | 29.9% | 11.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 10.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 33.8% | 14.7% | 16.5% | 2017 | 35.6% | 15.9% | 18.9% | Home | 34.4% | 18.2% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 30.0% | 18.2% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 14.1% | 14.5% | 2017 | 32.0% | 15.0% | 16.5% | Home | 27.2% | 18.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 48.5% | 25.0% | 39.4% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.5% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2017 | 27.1% | 4.0% | -1.7% | Home | 34.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | -21.1% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 2017 | 32.9% | 16.5% | 13.7% | Road | 34.7% | 14.9% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 7.1% | 15.0% |
| Ross Stripling | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.4% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 2017 | 25.9% | 12.8% | 6.0% | Home | 30.8% | 11.4% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 33.3% | 21.4% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.0% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 2017 | 34.6% | 11.8% | 19.2% | Home | 33.3% | 10.2% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 46.4% | 18.2% | 35.7% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 27.2% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 2017 | 27.2% | 13.8% | 9.2% | Home | 22.7% | 12.2% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 42.9% | 3.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.9% | 14.4% | 15.1% | 2017 | 28.6% | 11.1% | 11.0% | Home | 29.7% | 12.5% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 9.1% | 15.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.6% | 12.4% | 2017 | 33.2% | 11.4% | 17.4% | Home | 31.4% | 15.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 15.0% | 8.9% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 31.5% | 11.3% | 9.5% | 2017 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 7.1% | Home | 31.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 27.3% | 36.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.7% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 2017 | 33.8% | 15.9% | 14.3% | Road | 30.9% | 13.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 33.3% | 23.5% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 2017 | 28.5% | 12.1% | 8.7% | Road | 27.7% | 10.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 0.0% | -7.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 29.7% | 14.8% | 10.4% | RH | 31.3% | 15.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 32.1% | 12.8% | 13.0% | LH | 34.6% | 14.2% | 17.6% | L7Days | 40.9% | 19.0% | 27.5% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 9.9% | RH | 31.2% | 13.6% | 11.5% | L7Days | 29.7% | 13.8% | 11.7% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.6% | 13.3% | 7.7% | RH | 30.1% | 13.5% | 10.9% | L7Days | 29.3% | 11.9% | 10.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.4% | 12.1% | 16.9% | LH | 39.4% | 17.1% | 23.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 12.7% | 19.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.8% | 15.2% | 16.6% | LH | 31.5% | 10.6% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.0% | 16.4% | 11.4% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.4% | 10.3% | RH | 31.3% | 14.8% | 11.6% | L7Days | 39.9% | 15.6% | 25.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.5% | 15.3% | 10.3% | RH | 31.3% | 15.5% | 11.2% | L7Days | 27.1% | 25.0% | 7.4% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.8% | 13.8% | 15.5% | LH | 34.5% | 13.9% | 16.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| Reds | Home | 28.7% | 16.2% | 7.9% | RH | 29.8% | 15.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 28.8% | 17.2% | 11.0% |
| Mets | Road | 36.1% | 15.8% | 18.8% | LH | 35.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% | L7Days | 32.6% | 14.5% | 9.9% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.6% | 12.5% | RH | 33.9% | 12.6% | 17.2% | L7Days | 34.3% | 10.9% | 16.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.9% | 10.3% | 15.7% | RH | 33.6% | 11.4% | 15.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 14.7% | 3.2% |
| Braves | Home | 29.2% | 12.0% | 9.7% | LH | 28.9% | 16.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.1% | 14.0% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.1% | 15.7% | 8.1% | RH | 30.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.2% | 28.8% | 13.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 11.8% | 10.7% | RH | 30.3% | 10.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 35.2% | 18.5% | 16.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 37.8% | 16.1% | 23.3% | LH | 33.0% | 15.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 31.3% | 12.3% | 12.9% |
| Twins | Road | 30.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% | RH | 33.1% | 13.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 16.9% | 7.6% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 13.9% | 13.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% |
| Rays | Road | 32.1% | 16.0% | 11.9% | RH | 35.0% | 16.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 37.8% | 20.3% | 23.2% |
| Padres | Road | 30.9% | 14.8% | 8.8% | RH | 29.8% | 14.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 29.2% | 11.5% | 4.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.5% | 15.0% | 16.3% | RH | 31.6% | 14.8% | 14.7% | L7Days | 25.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.8% | 16.9% | 11.9% | RH | 33.8% | 18.9% | 14.9% | L7Days | 27.2% | 11.3% | 2.0% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.1% | 16.2% | 11.0% | LH | 31.1% | 15.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 40.6% | 17.7% | 24.0% |
| Rockies | Road | 29.2% | 11.6% | 8.1% | LH | 32.4% | 17.0% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.3% | 10.7% | 14.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.6% | 11.1% | 13.2% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 29.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Road | 30.8% | 10.6% | 10.0% | RH | 28.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% |
| Astros | Road | 33.5% | 14.8% | 15.7% | LH | 29.7% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 27.3% | 10.8% | 11.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.1% | 18.8% | 9.6% | RH | 31.2% | 16.4% | 12.1% | L7Days | 35.8% | 14.1% | 17.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.7% | 16.5% | 20.9% | RH | 36.0% | 14.9% | 20.2% | L7Days | 33.7% | 13.2% | 13.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | PHI | 10.3% | 6.5% | 1.58 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 2.56 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 20.1% | 9.6% | 2.09 | 21.0% | 10.7% | 1.96 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 31.1% | 12.2% | 2.55 | 27.6% | 11.4% | 2.42 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 29.3% | 15.0% | 1.95 | |||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 26.8% | 10.6% | 2.53 | 26.4% | 9.1% | 2.90 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 15.4% | 8.7% | 1.77 | 17.3% | 10.4% | 1.66 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 19.9% | 11.2% | 1.78 | 22.9% | 11.4% | 2.01 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 29.5% | 12.9% | 2.29 | 28.8% | 11.1% | 2.59 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 25.8% | 10.9% | 2.37 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 2.57 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 22.0% | 8.8% | 2.50 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 2.70 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.8% | 9.0% | 2.53 | 23.1% | 8.0% | 2.89 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 18.0% | 9.8% | 1.84 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.9% | 10.8% | 1.94 | 23.7% | 12.7% | 1.87 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 15.4% | 7.3% | 2.11 | 22.1% | 10.0% | 2.21 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 20.5% | 8.2% | 2.50 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 2.11 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 25.5% | 12.1% | 2.11 | 23.8% | 12.2% | 1.95 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.2% | 9.2% | 2.52 | 24.2% | 10.3% | 2.35 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 23.0% | 11.2% | 2.05 | 18.5% | 10.4% | 1.78 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 26.6% | 12.9% | 2.06 | 24.7% | 11.0% | 2.25 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.0% | 8.2% | 1.95 | 14.8% | 8.7% | 1.70 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 14.5% | 7.8% | 1.86 | 16.3% | 11.5% | 1.42 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 15.3% | 7.4% | 2.07 | 10.0% | 6.1% | 1.64 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 24.7% | 12.2% | 2.02 | 27.7% | 15.8% | 1.75 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 21.1% | 11.8% | 1.79 | 11.3% | 7.3% | 1.55 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 22.7% | 11.2% | 2.03 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 2.25 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 22.2% | 11.9% | 1.87 | 17.2% | 11.2% | 1.54 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 20.4% | 8.5% | 2.40 | 20.7% | 7.3% | 2.84 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 22.5% | 9.0% | 2.50 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 2.66 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.6% | 8.3% | 2.00 | 14.0% | 8.6% | 1.63 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 15.2% | 6.9% | 2.20 | 13.2% | 6.6% | 2.00 |
Nothing really to see here tonight.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | PHI | 3.7 | 5.79 | 2.09 | 5.76 | 2.06 | 4.38 | 0.68 | 6.36 | 2.66 | 3 | 4.74 | 1.74 | 4 | 1 | 2.8 | -0.2 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.42 | 5.03 | 0.61 | 4.91 | 0.49 | 4.59 | 0.17 | 4.20 | -0.22 | 3.45 | 4.24 | 0.79 | 4.23 | 0.78 | 3.58 | 0.13 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 3.21 | 3.7 | 0.49 | 3.69 | 0.48 | 2.66 | -0.55 | 3.83 | 0.62 | 5.13 | 3.46 | -1.67 | 3.62 | -1.51 | 3.47 | -1.66 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 6.62 | 3.27 | -3.35 | 3.43 | -3.19 | 5.17 | -1.45 | 4.59 | -2.03 | |||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 3.88 | 4.09 | 0.21 | 3.79 | -0.09 | 4.42 | 0.54 | 5.55 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 3.55 | 1.3 | 3.31 | 1.06 | 3.35 | 1.1 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.42 | 4.9 | 1.48 | 4.78 | 1.36 | 4.45 | 1.03 | 4.27 | 0.85 | 2.31 | 4.59 | 2.28 | 4.42 | 2.11 | 3.62 | 1.31 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 2.84 | 4.16 | 1.32 | 4.63 | 1.79 | 4.58 | 1.74 | 5.12 | 2.28 | 1.93 | 3.6 | 1.67 | 4.21 | 2.28 | 2.59 | 0.66 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 4.84 | 3.84 | -1 | 4.13 | -0.71 | 4.12 | -0.72 | 3.73 | -1.11 | 2.86 | 4.32 | 1.46 | 4.41 | 1.55 | 3.34 | 0.48 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.01 | 4.1 | 0.09 | 4.33 | 0.32 | 3.89 | -0.12 | 3.46 | -0.55 | 4.33 | 4.36 | 0.03 | 4.63 | 0.3 | 3.13 | -1.2 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.16 | 4.04 | -0.12 | 3.93 | -0.23 | 4.3 | 0.14 | 3.76 | -0.40 | 4.32 | 3.85 | -0.47 | 4.32 | 0 | 4.78 | 0.46 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.39 | 4.39 | 2 | 4.25 | 1.86 | 3.8 | 1.41 | 3.42 | 1.03 | 0.78 | 3.98 | 3.2 | 4.03 | 3.25 | 2.58 | 1.8 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.73 | 4.71 | -0.02 | 4.99 | 0.26 | 4.3 | -0.43 | 4.29 | -0.44 | 4.45 | 4.08 | -0.37 | 4.27 | -0.18 | 4.22 | -0.23 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.25 | 4.61 | -0.64 | 4.54 | -0.71 | 4.91 | -0.34 | 5.30 | 0.05 | 3.38 | 4.21 | 0.83 | 4.19 | 0.81 | 5.07 | 1.69 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.71 | 4.89 | 1.18 | 4.72 | 1.01 | 4.78 | 1.07 | 5.13 | 1.42 | 4.24 | 4.48 | 0.24 | 4.38 | 0.14 | 5.42 | 1.18 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 3.52 | 4.37 | 0.85 | 4.08 | 0.56 | 4.14 | 0.62 | 4.17 | 0.65 | 2.51 | 4.62 | 2.11 | 4.48 | 1.97 | 3.9 | 1.39 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.45 | 4.05 | 0.6 | 3.87 | 0.42 | 4.1 | 0.65 | 3.91 | 0.46 | 2.67 | 4.31 | 1.64 | 4.11 | 1.44 | 3.66 | 0.99 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.87 | 3.82 | 0.95 | 3.9 | 1.03 | 3.35 | 0.48 | 3.58 | 0.71 | 2.18 | 3.71 | 1.53 | 3.74 | 1.56 | 3.01 | 0.83 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.07 | 4.59 | -0.48 | 4.97 | -0.1 | 4.46 | -0.61 | 6.97 | 1.90 | 3.72 | 5.31 | 1.59 | 5.68 | 1.96 | 4.64 | 0.92 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.97 | 4.45 | 0.48 | 4.29 | 0.32 | 4.53 | 0.56 | 4.04 | 0.07 | 7 | 4.88 | -2.12 | 4.53 | -2.47 | 6.02 | -0.98 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4.16 | 4.22 | 0.06 | 3.94 | -0.22 | 4.04 | -0.12 | 4.83 | 0.67 | 9.26 | 4.24 | -5.02 | 4.14 | -5.12 | 5.06 | -4.2 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 4.42 | 5.62 | 1.2 | 6.24 | 1.82 | 4.49 | 0.07 | 6.33 | 1.91 | 2.84 | 4.36 | 1.52 | 4.85 | 2.01 | 3.6 | 0.76 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 5.65 | 4.77 | -0.88 | 4.69 | -0.96 | 5.02 | -0.63 | 6.42 | 0.77 | 2.31 | 5.89 | 3.58 | 5.72 | 3.41 | 4.67 | 2.36 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 3.41 | 3.28 | -0.13 | 3.28 | -0.13 | 3.16 | -0.25 | 3.74 | 0.33 | 2.92 | 2.75 | -0.17 | 2.82 | -0.1 | 4.67 | 1.75 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.58 | 4.42 | -0.16 | 4.43 | -0.15 | 4.14 | -0.44 | 4.63 | 0.05 | 8.69 | 5.54 | -3.15 | 5.8 | -2.89 | 7.4 | -1.29 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 4.13 | 4.97 | 0.84 | 4.8 | 0.67 | 4.79 | 0.66 | 5.59 | 1.46 | 3.04 | 5.52 | 2.48 | 5.45 | 2.41 | 5.64 | 2.6 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 3.38 | 3.97 | 0.59 | 3.55 | 0.17 | 3.3 | -0.08 | 3.27 | -0.11 | 3.13 | 5.11 | 1.98 | 4.65 | 1.52 | 3.65 | 0.52 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.66 | 4.43 | 0.77 | 4.44 | 0.78 | 4.11 | 0.45 | 4.01 | 0.35 | 4.33 | 4.35 | 0.02 | 4.57 | 0.24 | 4.91 | 0.58 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 3.96 | 4.28 | 0.32 | 4.21 | 0.25 | 4.01 | 0.05 | 4.40 | 0.44 | 3.92 | 4.59 | 0.67 | 4.5 | 0.58 | 4.73 | 0.81 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 5.75 | 5.13 | -0.62 | 5.05 | -0.7 | 5.35 | -0.4 | 5.44 | -0.31 | 6.39 | 5.58 | -0.81 | 5.92 | -0.47 | 6.88 | 0.49 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 4.09 | 4.85 | 0.76 | 4.62 | 0.53 | 4.4 | 0.31 | 4.76 | 0.67 | 2.78 | 4.98 | 2.2 | 4.58 | 1.8 | 3.25 | 0.47 |
Dinelson Lamet has a .258 BABIP, but with just a 63 LOB%. Over the last month, he has a .186 BABIP and 4.2 HR/FB.
Kyle Hendricks has a 79.9 LOB%.
Madison Bumgarner has an 82.9 LOB% for the season and an 87.7 LOB% with an 8.6 HR/FB over the last month.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.297 | 0.298 | 0.001 | 40.7% | 0.185 | 13.6% | 90.9% | 84.7 | 4.20% | 28.50% | 165 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.001 | 42.6% | 0.185 | 12.6% | 86.3% | 84.8 | 4.80% | 29.50% | 271 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.295 | 0.328 | 0.033 | 41.1% | 0.199 | 10.9% | 81.5% | 86.4 | 4.60% | 28.30% | 237 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.349 | 0.04 | 36.2% | 0.234 | 5.3% | 76.0% | 86.4 | 6.30% | 31.30% | 48 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.288 | 0.304 | 0.016 | 44.3% | 0.234 | 5.9% | 80.4% | 89.4 | 7.60% | 40.50% | 158 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.230 | -0.059 | 51.0% | 0.175 | 7.1% | 87.8% | 86.9 | 5.40% | 33.90% | 316 |
| Dillon Gee | MIN | 0.298 | 0.281 | -0.017 | 39.1% | 0.207 | 8.1% | 80.4% | 85.5 | 6.40% | 30.90% | 94 |
| Dinelson Lamet | SDG | 0.307 | 0.258 | -0.049 | 36.7% | 0.189 | 6.9% | 82.5% | 87.6 | 9.60% | 36.90% | 198 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.305 | 0.286 | -0.019 | 33.8% | 0.218 | 5.9% | 83.6% | 87.4 | 8.60% | 32.50% | 268 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.308 | 0.295 | -0.013 | 45.4% | 0.2 | 11.7% | 86.0% | 85.6 | 8.10% | 33.00% | 482 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.293 | 0.242 | -0.051 | 45.2% | 0.184 | 9.6% | 86.4% | 85.1 | 4.80% | 26.80% | 441 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.299 | 0.299 | 0 | 38.0% | 0.202 | 7.8% | 88.5% | 87.6 | 6.90% | 34.10% | 464 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.351 | 0.036 | 42.0% | 0.225 | 9.5% | 84.2% | 87.9 | 8.90% | 33.90% | 448 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.302 | 0.282 | -0.02 | 54.9% | 0.166 | 11.0% | 89.6% | 84.5 | 4.90% | 32.60% | 429 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 0.283 | 0.284 | 0.001 | 48.4% | 0.215 | 10.8% | 87.4% | 85.2 | 4.60% | 31.40% | 280 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.293 | 0.259 | -0.034 | 56.1% | 0.128 | 7.1% | 81.9% | 85.3 | 3.30% | 29.50% | 183 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.317 | 0.273 | -0.044 | 41.8% | 0.187 | 10.1% | 88.5% | 87 | 7.00% | 33.20% | 229 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.310 | 0.003 | 30.4% | 0.208 | 14.0% | 81.2% | 86.8 | 7.50% | 31.70% | 429 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.273 | -0.03 | 40.3% | 0.226 | 11.0% | 79.2% | 87.6 | 7.70% | 36.00% | 222 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.294 | 0.313 | 0.019 | 55.2% | 0.225 | 4.7% | 90.4% | 87.6 | 5.20% | 35.90% | 485 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | 0.293 | 0.293 | 0 | 35.6% | 0.22 | 4.0% | 87.9% | 82.3 | 5.10% | 30.50% | 59 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.320 | 0.314 | -0.006 | 51.0% | 0.209 | 7.1% | 88.7% | 86.3 | 5.50% | 35.80% | 307 |
| Ross Stripling | LOS | 0.280 | 0.313 | 0.033 | 47.5% | 0.235 | 8.5% | 83.1% | 85.5 | 4.80% | 30.10% | 166 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.292 | 0.310 | 0.018 | 43.2% | 0.204 | 5.9% | 86.5% | 89.2 | 6.40% | 42.00% | 376 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.292 | 0.296 | 0.004 | 41.3% | 0.243 | 4.6% | 83.7% | 87.2 | 5.60% | 33.30% | 195 |
| Sonny Gray | NYY | 0.290 | 0.282 | -0.008 | 55.3% | 0.209 | 4.9% | 86.6% | 86 | 5.80% | 38.20% | 346 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.294 | 0.291 | -0.003 | 47.7% | 0.185 | 7.3% | 86.6% | 87.8 | 6.00% | 34.00% | 368 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.285 | 0.324 | 0.039 | 41.4% | 0.236 | 10.2% | 89.5% | 86.7 | 6.30% | 33.10% | 142 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.279 | 0.291 | 0.012 | 45.2% | 0.194 | 17.4% | 87.9% | 87.4 | 7.10% | 33.50% | 379 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.300 | 0.302 | 0.002 | 48.4% | 0.226 | 9.9% | 89.7% | 85.6 | 4.50% | 30.80% | 494 |
Brad Peacock has an elevated BABIP that appears a bit fluky considering both his BABIP profile and overall contact quality allowed.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Brad Peacock (2) is probably a third tier guy on a more normal day, but may be the best we have tonight. While the Angels may hinder his strikeout rate slightly, he’s got the highest one on the board.
Value Tier Two
Madison Bumgarner (1) has been pitching well, though not complete up to his usual standard with some hard contact concerns in a difficult park, but you’re still not going to do much better today.
Value Tier Three
Ross Stripling is a long reliever in a spot start today. While the low odds of a quality start takes him off the board on FanDuel, he could make an ideal low cost SP2 in a high strikeout spot on DraftKings.
Dinelson Lamet (3) has improved contact management and may even project for the top strikeout rate on the slate, but there is some concern. The Marlins have been pounding the ball the ball recently and you certainly worry about him putting a guy or two on ahead of Stanton.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kyle Hendricks is not incredibly exciting, but he combines a league average strikeout rate with solid contact management Although they have been hot recently, the Phillies are still the Philles. He’s likely an omission at this cost on a more standard slate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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