Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, April 6th
It’s on odd Thursday schedule on opening week with most of the action taking place in the afternoon. As such, we’ll skip the one really early game, which has a pitcher making his major league debut anyway, and cover the rest of the schedule.
We’re getting closer to the bottom of the barrel today with nearly all the talent going in the night portion of the schedule. The day probables are a pretty brutal bunch, but we’ll try anyway. We might have to be a bit less wordy in order to comply with the early start. Just a couple of days until we’re at the top of the rotation again and finally using some 2017 stats too.
Check out Tuesday’s article for an explanation on some newly included stats this year, including DRA and some Statcast stuff. Remember that FanDuel has changed their pitcher pricing to de-emphasize the Win in favor of the Quality Start. A welcome, if not overdue change.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | -8.3 | 3.29 | 4.2 | 50.9% | 0.95 | 3.25 | ANA | 98 | 99 | 104 | |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -4.3 | 4.77 | 5.5 | 31.2% | 1.01 | 6.1 | 4.84 | HOU | 97 | 98 | 85 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -1.4 | 4.53 | 4.68 | 36.5% | 0.97 | 4.47 | 3.76 | TOR | 97 | 100 | 80 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.3 | 3.92 | 4.85 | 36.1% | 0.9 | 4.51 | 3.96 | SDG | 78 | 81 | 97 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -2.8 | 4.5 | 5.01 | 44.3% | 1.07 | 3.82 | 4.16 | BOS | 121 | 113 | 58 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.2 | 4.48 | 5.3 | 39.1% | 1.05 | 4.7 | 4.69 | COL | 84 | 96 | 73 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.1 | 4.29 | 5.57 | 37.8% | 1.07 | 5.06 | 2.65 | PIT | 90 | 108 | 77 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1.1 | 3.87 | 5.6 | 50.7% | 1.02 | 3.43 | 4.36 | FLA | 96 | 92 | 88 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.9 | 3.72 | 5.9 | 58.6% | 0.87 | 4.21 | 2.23 | NYM | 102 | 104 | 115 |
| James Shields | CHW | 3.3 | 4.39 | 5.82 | 42.5% | 0.99 | 4.94 | 4.61 | DET | 102 | 107 | 140 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 4.9 | 3.85 | 5.53 | 40.2% | 1.03 | 4.68 | 4.19 | MIN | 92 | 95 | 92 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.8 | 4.16 | 6.52 | 42.5% | 1.07 | 4.12 | 1.71 | ARI | 99 | 87 | 106 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | -5.9 | 5.17 | 5.91 | 31.4% | 0.9 | 6.1 | 4.17 | LOS | 107 | 109 | 65 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.2 | 3.98 | 5.72 | 43.4% | 1.01 | 3.9 | 4.45 | SEA | 101 | 107 | 124 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 9.1 | 3.87 | 6.55 | 43.9% | 0.97 | 3.64 | 4.65 | STL | 102 | 106 | 129 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.8 | 4.39 | 6. | 51.3% | 1.03 | 4.11 | 4.56 | KAN | 85 | 84 | 64 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -5.3 | 4 | 5.65 | 44.2% | 0.97 | CHC | 106 | 103 | 113 | ||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 2.2 | 3.58 | 6.42 | 60.5% | 0.97 | 3.29 | 4.71 | TAM | 96 | 98 | 73 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -5.1 | 4.54 | 4.94 | 35.7% | 0.99 | 4.46 | 4.38 | CHW | 97 | 102 | 108 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.3 | 3.59 | 6.13 | 44.1% | 0.87 | 3.95 | ATL | 86 | 89 | 105 | |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -6.1 | 3.77 | 5.49 | 44.6% | 1.07 | 3.53 | 6.15 | SFO | 83 | 93 | 155 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.8 | 4.76 | 5.64 | 44.2% | 1.02 | 4.85 | 7.07 | WAS | 96 | 95 | 91 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 6.5 | 4.36 | 4.92 | 43.0% | 0.95 | 4.47 | 9.36 | OAK | 83 | 89 | 84 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -3.1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1.05 | MIL | 92 | 87 | 103 |
One important note here is that with the season just under way, we’re still using some 2016 stats to start the season this week (even if it says 2017). Stats for the last seven, 14 or 30 days are also from the end of last season and should probably be largely ignored. They’re essentially filling in blank spaces right now. Also, we’re still using last year’s park factors as I’ve yet to find an updated site with multi-year factors. Feel free to leave a message if you know of one.
Andrew Triggs had a 17-6 K-BB% in 24 big league appearances last season (six starts) with an ERA well below his estimators due to a 64.6 LOB%. He had low hard hit and barrel rates as well. Aside from an odd 2014 stop at AA for the Royals in which he had a 14.6 K% in 61.1 innings, he’s had a well above average strikeout rate at every other stop. The Angels are a contact driven team, but without much power aside from Trout and Pujols.
Brandon McCarthy return from TJ surgery was further shortened by a minor hip injury. He had excellent peripherals in his last full season in 2014, but that was three years ago now. He’s retained a high strikeout rate in small spurts since then and he’s facing the Padres.
Eduardo Rodriguez was called up for the second time last season after the All Star break. From that point on, he had a 3.24 ERA, though with just a 7.4 HR/FB that will likely see some adjustment. He also struck out 24.7% of batters with an 11.7 SwStr% over those last 14 starts. There were some people in Baltimore who weren’t happy when he was traded for Andrew Miller a couple of years ago. He was a highly regarded prospect.
NOTE – It looks like the Boston/Pittsburgh game has been postponed.
Gio Gonzalez rode a 67.6 LOB% to a 4.57 ERA, despite estimators within a quarter of a run of his career rates. His strikeout rate was right around his career rate as well, as was his GB%, while his walk rate was a career low. He did allow a career high 19 HRs and 32.7 Hard%, though his Statcast rates were around average. There is some concern that he is losing the velocity gap between his fastball and changeup, as mentioned on his Fangraphs player page capsule, as that could make him more hittable. However, he’s in a nice spot at a decent price against an offense that struck out 22.7% of the time against LHP.
Jaime Garcia had a 12.6 K-BB% and 56.7 GB% last year. His career rates are 12.3% and 56.5%. His 31.1 Hard% was a bit higher than normal, but still around league average, making it difficult to explain his 20.2 HR/FB. His Statcast batted ball rates were all around league average as well. It’s difficult to find a reason not to expect him to return to form this year. That’s not a star, but a usable pitcher. The Mets are predisposed to perhaps struggle against LHP.
Jason Hammel is somewhat of a fly ball pitcher with a league average 13.2 K-BB% He allowed a bit more hard contact that average last year and struggled to provide value to DFS players because Joe Maddon did not often let him pitch deep into games. One usual reason for that is if a pitcher suffers the third time through the lineup. The Royals are unlikely to handle him the same way as they don’t have the same bullpen they traditionally have had. He should start his Kansas City career in a nice matchup under favorable pitching conditions in Minnesota.
Jeff Samardzija bounced back somewhat last year and also benefited from pitching into San Francisco. He’s yet another league average pitcher on a day it shouldn’t be a surprise we’re seeing so many of them in the third or fourth game of the season for these teams. Arizona is about as significant a downgrade as he could see outside of Colorado, though the offense isn’t as potent against RHP.
Joe Musgrove wasn’t a big time prospect or hyped arm, but rode spotless control to a K-BB above 20% at the higher levels of the minors and earned a spot in the rotation for Houston last year. His 15.2 K-BB% in 62 major innings may have been less impressive, but still above average. While he did have a 16.5 Hard-Soft%, his Statcast numbers suggest contact more in line with league average rates. The Mariners will strikeout and walk at average rates, but also have some power.
John Lackey rode a career high 24.1 K% and an excellent Chicago defense to a surprising 3.35 ERA in his age 37 season. However, he had just a 21.5 K% in the second half and we have to project some regression from an historically efficient defense. Expect some regression from Lackey and hope for a league average pitcher. The Cardinals do pose an offensive threat, but early season St Louis conditions should be in his favor.
Marcus Stroman was the only qualified starter to crack 60% with his ground ball rate last year, just barely doing so (60.1%). They weren’t necessarily weak ground balls, as he has the second highest exit velocity on the board today, but hard grounders are better than hard contact in the air, especially with a league average strikeout rate. While his strikeout rate did tick up in July (22.1%) and surge in August (30.2%), it cratered in September (16.8%). He had a bit of an issue stranding runners (68.6%), leading to an ERA above four and could stand to better his BABIP with a strong infield defense behind him, though hard ground balls get through that Toronto surface quickly. Today, he’s pitching in the most pitcher friendly AL East environment against an offense that struck out 24.2% of the time against RHP.
Matt Boyd is another pitcher with, you guessed it, league average peripherals, though a fly ball lean and inability to manage contact at a better than average rate has led to occasional HR issues, although he was better last year, if you consider 17 HRs in 97.1 innings better than 17 HRs in 57.1 innings (I said better…not good). We like the matchup with the White Sox today, although they were league average against LHP last year.
Robbie Ray went from a high strikeout, hard contact pitcher to an extreme strikeout, hard contact pitcher last season. A 36.6 Hard%, 90.7 mph aEV, and 8.1% Barrels/BBE is a bit less concerning with a 28.1 K%. Unfortunately, the Giants struck out just 18.4% of the time vs LHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Blake Snell (.356 – 73% – 5.6) should see some positive BABIP regression as his HR rate negatively regresses and he’s a very talented arm with great stuff. His issue was with a 12.7 BB% last year that often knocked him out of games early. Except for a short stint at AAA in 2015 (44 innings) with a 7.6 BB%, his walk rate has been above 9% at every stop and often in double digits. Toronto is not a team a LHP wants to start walking guys against.
Ariel Miranda (.222 – 76.8% – 13.8) allowed a 37.1 Hard% and the highest exit velocity on the board last season (91.2 mph).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Tyler Skaggs struck out batters at an impressive 22.8% clip last year, but that was beyond what his 8.1 SwStr% suggested. If he takes a step back in that department, it could be an issue with a double digit walk rate, as he had the highest Barrels/BBE on the board last season. The good news is that all this happened in just 50 innings, so we’re less locked into those numbers. Oakland also has some RH thump though. I don’t really hate including him with some of the other last tier guys below though.
Matt Harvey is returning from thoracic outlet surgery. The sample size on that among major league pitchers isn’t large, but a few (Josh Beckett) have returned successfully. There’s been some spring concern for his velocity, which was not expected to return right away, but it did increase in later March outings. Weather could be an issue in this game and the Mets could be cautious with him to start the season.
Kyle Gibson has now gone a couple of years with a SwStr% not resulting in the K% it normally calls for. When I give up (now) is probably when he’ll turn it around.
Lance Lynn returns from TJ surgery.
Chad Kuhl (This game has been postponed)
Antonio Senzatela was in the “Other Prospects of Note” or outside the top 24 Colorado prospects according to Fangraphs this year. He lost most of last season with shoulder inflammation and was considered a reliever before then, so here he is in the rotation to start the season. He has thrown 34 innings above A ball and has just one pitch even graded as average (his fastball) on his Fangraphs player page.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 23.1% | 5.5% | Home | 23.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | ||
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.0% | 7.8% | Road | 11.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 2.8% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 24.4% | 12.7% | Home | 25.4% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 12.5% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 11.3% | Home | 28.0% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 7.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.6% | Road | 20.8% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 6.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.2% | Home | 19.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.9% | Home | 20.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 42.0% | 11.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.3% | 8.4% | Home | 24.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 13.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.0% | Road | 19.9% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 9.7% | Home | 18.5% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 20.2% | 9.5% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 22.5% | 6.6% | Road | 19.2% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 4.9% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.0% | 5.9% | Road | 18.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 2.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.4% | 5.9% | Road | 11.2% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 7.1% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 21.5% | 6.3% | Home | 26.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 6.4% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.5% | Road | 25.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.9% | 8.1% | Home | 16.1% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 9.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.1% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.3% | Road | 20.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 9.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.4% | Road | 21.6% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 21.9% | 3.1% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 22.8% | 5.4% | Home | 18.6% | 6.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.5% | 9.1% | Home | 26.0% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.0% | 10.2% | Road | 17.5% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 22.2% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.8% | 10.5% | Road | 20.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Road | 16.6% | 7.7% | RH | 16.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Astros | Home | 24.5% | 9.0% | LH | 23.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 9.9% | LH | 20.2% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
| Padres | Road | 25.9% | 6.7% | RH | 24.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.6% | 8.8% | RH | 18.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 6.9% | RH | 20.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 8.8% | LH | 23.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 7.2% | LH | 22.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Home | 21.0% | 9.2% | LH | 22.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 7.9% | RH | 21.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.2% | 7.7% | RH | 22.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 7.3% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Dodgers | Home | 21.5% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.2% | 7.4% | RH | 20.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Royals | Road | 21.5% | 6.2% | RH | 20.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 6.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 21.6% | 9.8% | RH | 21.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 20.4% | 12.2% |
| Rays | Home | 25.9% | 7.7% | RH | 24.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.8% | 5.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.5% | 7.8% | LH | 22.0% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.5% | 8.0% | RH | 19.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Giants | Road | 18.5% | 8.5% | LH | 18.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.6% | 9.0% | RH | 20.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.4% | 6.9% | LH | 18.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 21.3% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.1% | 10.1% | RH | 25.8% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.9% | 7.8% | 2017 | 27.0% | 11.9% | 7.8% | Home | 28.0% | 5.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 37.1% | 13.8% | 19.4% | 2017 | 37.1% | 13.8% | 19.4% | Road | 32.4% | 9.1% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 34.5% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.4% | 5.6% | 9.2% | 2017 | 31.4% | 5.6% | 9.2% | Home | 31.2% | 3.8% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 40.6% | 18.3% | 21.2% | 2017 | 36.4% | 5.6% | 16.2% | Home | 39.7% | 9.1% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.0% | 8.9% | 13.4% | Road | 27.7% | 6.0% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 5.3% | 18.7% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.8% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 2017 | 36.6% | 14.9% | 19.4% | Home | 36.0% | 12.8% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 13.3% | 11.4% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 2017 | 27.6% | 11.1% | 5.4% | Home | 25.2% | 15.6% | 1.4% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 6.3% | 9.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 2017 | 32.7% | 12.5% | 14.6% | Home | 32.7% | 14.3% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 6.9% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.4% | 15.0% | 9.8% | 2017 | 31.1% | 20.2% | 12.5% | Road | 30.2% | 14.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 50.0% | 21.4% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.6% | 17.7% | 16.5% | 2017 | 33.8% | 17.8% | 18.5% | Home | 32.8% | 18.9% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 13.6% | 8.6% |
| Jason Hammel | Royals | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 2017 | 32.5% | 13.8% | 14.0% | Road | 36.7% | 17.6% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 16.7% | 3.4% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 2017 | 31.5% | 11.9% | 13.4% | Road | 29.8% | 14.0% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.6% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 2017 | 34.7% | 12.7% | 16.1% | Road | 35.8% | 12.7% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 7.1% | 16.7% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 34.6% | 13.8% | 16.5% | 2017 | 34.6% | 13.8% | 16.5% | Home | 32.3% | 5.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 16.6% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 32.0% | 11.2% | 15.0% | 2017 | 34.4% | 12.9% | 18.2% | Road | 37.4% | 15.7% | 25.1% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 10.8% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 2017 | 31.0% | 14.5% | 12.4% | Home | 30.6% | 16.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 0.0% | -5.4% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.7% | 16.3% | 11.8% | 2017 | 31.8% | 16.5% | 13.5% | Road | 30.2% | 20.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 9.8% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 14.9% | 13.9% | 2017 | 30.0% | 12.9% | 10.8% | Road | 27.2% | 12.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.3% | 20.8% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 28.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 2017 | 30.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | Home | 30.2% | 10.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.9% | 11.9% | 20.2% | 2017 | 36.6% | 15.5% | 20.6% | Home | 38.4% | 14.9% | 22.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 30.0% | 7.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.6% | 11.5% | 13.2% | 2017 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 7.6% | Road | 27.1% | 9.8% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 30.0% | 27.3% |
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 2017 | 33.3% | 10.4% | 11.8% | Road | 34.3% | 13.9% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | Road | 30.9% | 9.4% | 11.8% | RH | 30.5% | 9.9% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Astros | Home | 32.9% | 14.5% | 15.2% | LH | 34.3% | 14.4% | 17.4% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.1% | 14.6% | 12.8% | LH | 32.5% | 13.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
| Padres | Road | 30.4% | 13.8% | 11.1% | RH | 29.8% | 12.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.5% | 12.9% | 14.3% | RH | 34.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.5% | 12.3% | 10.6% | RH | 32.9% | 14.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.0% | 11.9% | 11.3% | LH | 33.0% | 13.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.4% | 10.4% | 9.3% | LH | 31.8% | 10.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% |
| Mets | Home | 34.3% | 13.6% | 13.3% | LH | 33.3% | 14.8% | 12.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.8% | 14.0% | 15.8% | RH | 32.4% | 14.1% | 15.4% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Twins | Home | 31.6% | 12.6% | 14.0% | RH | 31.1% | 12.9% | 12.7% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.2% | 17.7% | 20.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.9% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 33.0% | 15.7% | 15.7% | RH | 34.6% | 15.6% | 18.0% | L7Days | 28.5% | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.1% | 14.9% | 12.0% | RH | 31.4% | 14.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.3% | 13.3% | 16.1% | RH | 34.2% | 14.7% | 17.2% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Royals | Road | 29.5% | 11.7% | 10.1% | RH | 30.0% | 9.6% | 10.5% | L7Days | 29.3% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.2% | 14.4% | 13.4% | RH | 31.3% | 12.6% | 11.6% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Rays | Home | 33.4% | 13.4% | 14.4% | RH | 32.5% | 14.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 4.7% | 8.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.8% | 12.0% | 8.2% | LH | 31.2% | 13.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% |
| Braves | Road | 28.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% | RH | 29.4% | 9.7% | 11.0% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Giants | Road | 31.5% | 10.1% | 11.8% | LH | 28.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.0% | 12.9% | 13.8% | RH | 32.8% | 12.1% | 14.9% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.4% | 8.6% | 9.5% | LH | 28.5% | 12.7% | 10.0% | L7Days | 35.9% | 8.9% | 22.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 34.3% | 16.3% | 16.7% | RH | 32.2% | 15.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.26 | |||
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 19.0% | 8.3% | 2.29 | 20.0% | 9.2% | 2.17 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 24.4% | 10.9% | 2.24 | 28.6% | 12.1% | 2.36 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 25.7% | 7.4% | 3.47 | 23.1% | 6.6% | 3.50 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 17.6% | 8.9% | 1.98 | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 18.6% | 8.3% | 2.24 | 15.9% | 9.1% | 1.75 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 21.8% | 10.6% | 2.06 | 28.1% | 13.0% | 2.16 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.38 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 2.80 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 20.2% | 9.2% | 2.20 | 26.2% | 10.4% | 2.52 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.4% | 9.2% | 1.78 | 21.3% | 12.2% | 1.75 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 20.8% | 10.2% | 2.04 | 22.5% | 14.7% | 1.53 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 20.1% | 9.2% | 2.18 | 30.7% | 11.0% | 2.79 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 13.4% | 8.1% | 1.65 | 22.1% | 7.6% | 2.91 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 21.5% | 9.9% | 2.17 | 19.2% | 10.5% | 1.83 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 24.1% | 11.5% | 2.10 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 1.85 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.9% | 9.8% | 1.62 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.70 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | ||||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.4% | 9.3% | 2.09 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 1.78 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 19.9% | 9.5% | 2.09 | 19.0% | 11.9% | 1.60 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | |||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 28.1% | 11.6% | 2.42 | 30.7% | 14.4% | 2.13 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 19.0% | 9.7% | 1.96 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 2.21 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 22.8% | 8.1% | 2.81 | 25.4% | 9.4% | 2.70 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL |
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 4.31 | 3.29 | -1.02 | 3.29 | -1.02 | 3.2 | -1.11 | 3.22 | -1.09 | |||||||
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.88 | 4.77 | 0.89 | 5.06 | 1.18 | 5.25 | 1.37 | 5.25 | 1.37 | 1.91 | 4.77 | 2.86 | 5 | 3.09 | 5.05 | 3.14 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.54 | 4.53 | 0.99 | 4.35 | 0.81 | 3.39 | -0.15 | 4.56 | 1.02 | 3.48 | 4.07 | 0.59 | 4.24 | 0.76 | 2.86 | -0.62 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 4.95 | 4.76 | -0.19 | 4.55 | -0.4 | 3.7 | -1.25 | 4.60 | -0.35 | 13.5 | 3.96 | -9.54 | 2.96 | -10.54 | 2.02 | -11.48 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.3 | 4.53 | 0.33 | 3.95 | -0.25 | 4.55 | 0.35 | 5.32 | 4.12 | -1.2 | 4.21 | -1.11 | 3.06 | -2.26 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 4.39 | 4.68 | 0.29 | 4.76 | 0.37 | 5.09 | 0.7 | 5.50 | 1.11 | 1.98 | 4.89 | 2.91 | 4.73 | 2.75 | 4.21 | 2.23 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.71 | 4.44 | -0.27 | 4.72 | 0.01 | 4.43 | -0.28 | 3.92 | -0.79 | 3.27 | 3.75 | 0.48 | 4.42 | 1.15 | 2.93 | -0.34 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 4.57 | 3.96 | -0.61 | 3.8 | -0.77 | 3.76 | -0.81 | 3.97 | -0.60 | 7.43 | 3.36 | -4.07 | 3.09 | -4.34 | 3.28 | -4.15 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 4.67 | 3.93 | -0.74 | 3.77 | -0.9 | 4.49 | -0.18 | 4.50 | -0.17 | 6.38 | 3.8 | -2.58 | 3.67 | -2.71 | 6.47 | 0.09 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.85 | 5.12 | -0.73 | 5.21 | -0.64 | 6.01 | 0.16 | 6.14 | 0.29 | 5.79 | 4.93 | -0.86 | 5.31 | -0.48 | 6.3 | 0.51 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 3.83 | 4.28 | 0.45 | 4.34 | 0.51 | 4.48 | 0.65 | 4.78 | 0.95 | 8.71 | 4.04 | -4.67 | 4.66 | -4.05 | 6.1 | -2.61 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.81 | 4.13 | 0.32 | 3.96 | 0.15 | 3.85 | 0.04 | 3.73 | -0.08 | 2.48 | 2.88 | 0.4 | 2.57 | 0.09 | 2.2 | -0.28 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 5.06 | 5.44 | 0.38 | 5.64 | 0.58 | 5.62 | 0.56 | 7.13 | 2.07 | 4.23 | 4.52 | 0.29 | 4.82 | 0.59 | 4.88 | 0.65 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.06 | 3.98 | -0.08 | 4.04 | -0.02 | 4.18 | 0.12 | 4.23 | 0.17 | 3.72 | 4.5 | 0.78 | 4.48 | 0.76 | 4.49 | 0.77 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3.35 | 3.83 | 0.48 | 3.8 | 0.45 | 3.81 | 0.46 | 3.72 | 0.37 | 3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 4.16 | 1.16 | 4.28 | 1.28 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 5.07 | 4.73 | -0.34 | 4.5 | -0.57 | 4.7 | -0.37 | 5.05 | -0.02 | 4.15 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 4.51 | 0.36 | 4.37 | 0.22 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | ||||||||||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 4.37 | 3.62 | -0.75 | 3.41 | -0.96 | 3.71 | -0.66 | 3.75 | -0.62 | 3.19 | 4.36 | 1.17 | 3.84 | 0.65 | 3.66 | 0.47 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.53 | 4.38 | -0.15 | 4.74 | 0.21 | 4.75 | 0.22 | 5.35 | 0.82 | 6.75 | 4.44 | -2.31 | 4.95 | -1.8 | 4.97 | -1.78 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 4.86 | 4.31 | -0.55 | 4.11 | -0.75 | 3.47 | -1.39 | 4.52 | -0.34 | |||||||
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.9 | 3.59 | -1.31 | 3.45 | -1.45 | 3.76 | -1.14 | 4.08 | -0.82 | 7.56 | 3.92 | -3.64 | 4.08 | -3.48 | 5.27 | -2.29 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.33 | 4.85 | 0.52 | 4.69 | 0.36 | 4.6 | 0.27 | 4.73 | 0.40 | 6.08 | 5.29 | -0.79 | 4.9 | -1.18 | 6.75 | 0.67 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 4.17 | 4.36 | 0.19 | 4.25 | 0.08 | 3.95 | -0.22 | 4.58 | 0.41 | 2.63 | 4.18 | 1.55 | 3.83 | 1.2 | 4.39 | 1.76 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | 0.299 | 0.315 | 0.016 | 50.9% | 0.236 | 4.8% | 86.7% | 90.2 | 4.60% | 2.90% | 151 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.292 | 0.222 | -0.07 | 31.2% | 0.176 | 16.1% | 86.0% | 91.2 | 9.60% | 6.00% | 146 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.297 | 0.356 | 0.059 | 36.5% | 0.273 | 7.8% | 82.0% | 88.2 | 2.70% | 1.50% | 219 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.288 | 0.278 | -0.01 | 34.7% | 0.274 | 11.1% | 88.0% | 88.6 | 1.30% | 0.60% | 80 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.306 | 0.304 | -0.002 | 44.3% | 0.196 | 7.6% | 87.5% | 89.7 | 5.90% | 3.70% | 185 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.287 | -0.013 | 36.1% | 0.228 | 6.4% | 85.5% | 88.6 | 9.10% | 5.60% | 396 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.293 | 0.278 | -0.015 | 31.6% | 0.224 | 11.8% | 85.9% | 86.3 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 267 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.288 | 0.316 | 0.028 | 47.6% | 0.229 | 8.6% | 85.6% | 89.2 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 453 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.293 | 0.305 | 0.012 | 56.7% | 0.183 | 7.0% | 89.2% | 89.5 | 6.60% | 3.90% | 441 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.298 | 0.302 | 0.004 | 40.4% | 0.214 | 6.7% | 89.0% | 89 | 7.90% | 5.10% | 532 |
| Jason Hammel | KAN | 0.298 | 0.267 | -0.031 | 42.1% | 0.198 | 7.7% | 87.7% | 90.8 | 7.80% | 4.80% | 423 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.287 | 0.285 | -0.002 | 46.5% | 0.199 | 8.0% | 88.0% | 89.3 | 6.20% | 4.00% | 533 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.296 | 0.301 | 0.005 | 28.8% | 0.23 | 14.8% | 84.3% | 88.7 | 7.50% | 5.20% | 531 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.306 | 0.289 | -0.017 | 43.4% | 0.209 | 10.8% | 90.6% | 89.6 | 6.10% | 3.50% | 147 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.255 | 0.255 | 0 | 41.0% | 0.227 | 8.4% | 87.1% | 90.4 | 6.50% | 3.70% | 428 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.319 | 0.330 | 0.011 | 48.8% | 0.227 | 8.0% | 90.9% | 89 | 6.30% | 4.10% | 431 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.304 | ||||||||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.282 | 0.308 | 0.026 | 60.1% | 0.196 | 5.5% | 90.4% | 91.1 | 5.30% | 3.50% | 561 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.300 | 0.286 | -0.014 | 38.1% | 0.17 | 14.4% | 84.4% | 88.2 | 7.30% | 4.90% | 275 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.308 | 0.353 | 0.045 | 40.8% | 0.253 | 11.2% | 85.8% | 88.7 | 4.50% | 3.00% | 265 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.320 | 0.352 | 0.032 | 45.7% | 0.217 | 10.3% | 83.2% | 90.7 | 8.10% | 4.40% | 419 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.303 | 0.298 | -0.005 | 42.2% | 0.233 | 9.9% | 88.0% | 88.3 | 7.20% | 4.50% | 486 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.301 | 0.331 | 0.03 | 43.0% | 0.232 | 6.3% | 87.7% | 88.7 | 9.80% | 5.00% | 112 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.317 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Marcus Stroman has the ability to be more than his results showed last year if he can work out some flaws and stay more consistent in his strikeout rate. Tampa Bay should help boost that number today. This is not what we’d normally expect a top tier pitcher to look like, but it might as we get closer to the back of rotations.
Value Tier Two
Eduardo Rodriguez was a much better pitcher in the second half and though Pittsburgh has some patience against LHP, which could pose a problem for him, he costs just $7.1K on a pitching scarce afternoon slate.
NOTE – It looks like the Boston/Pittsburgh game had been postponed, further hampering our afternoon pitching choices.
Joe Musgrove is one of the few league average pitchers on the afternoon slate who may have some upside, though he may also carry more risk as well.
Matt Boyd has significant HR risk, but also the upside to potentially pitch as well as most guys on the board today at a much lower cost.
Andrew Triggs is minimally priced. While not even necessarily expecting a repeat of last year’s performance, if he even comes close to an average strikeout rate with decent contact management, he could easily exceed his cost.
Value Tier Three
Robbie Ray could get blown up here. He gives up a lot of hard contact in a tough park against an offense that strikes out less than any other NL team. He misses so many bats that he can afford to lose a few and still be useful, especially for just $7.6K on FanDuel.
Jaime Garcia should return to being a useful pitcher, who strikes out batters at a league average rate and keeps the ball on the ground. Keep in mind, weather may be a concern in this one.
Gio Gonzalez was in line with most of his career peripherals despite the high ERA. He may have become more hittable, but is in a decent spot today at a reasonable cost on a pitching deficient afternoon.
Jason Hammel is one of several unexciting afternoon options, one of which, you’ll likely have to use. He should be okay here at an average cost.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jeff Samardzija might not be a bargain. He’s an average pitcher tied for the highest cost today in a poor pitching environment. On some days, we might even say he’s over-priced, but not on this one.
John Lackey is tied for the highest price tag with Samardzija and should be expected to take a step back this year. I’d probably be more cautious, considering the cost, on a more pitching rich day.
Brandon McCarthy was a pitcher with some upside before injury issues. He’s facing the Padres and he’s affordable.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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