Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 22nd
On a perfectly split day of baseball, pitchers for all 12 games are listed with the six night games being covered in the notes. There are several interesting arms on both slates, but can someone tell me why there’s a pitcher who costs more than $3K more than Alex Wood tonight?
Important Note: It has come to my attention that though both were listed by MLB.com last night, neither Alex Wood nor Yovani Gallardo are pitching tonight. It will by Hyun-Jin Ryu and Andrew Moore, making his major league debut, instead. At least the handedness of the starters are still the same.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.4 | 3.58 | 5.7 | 51.5% | 0.96 | 3.04 | 3.95 | STL | 94 | 99 | 136 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2 | 3.55 | 5.72 | 55.5% | 0.89 | 2.57 | 2.65 | NYM | 111 | 86 | 91 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 1.1 | 4.55 | 5.94 | 48.0% | 1.39 | 4.45 | 3.23 | ARI | 80 | 107 | 120 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -7.8 | 3.72 | 6.31 | 54.5% | 0.96 | 3.76 | 2.86 | PHI | 93 | 82 | 67 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.45 | 5.28 | 37.4% | 1.02 | 4.65 | 3.1 | PIT | 91 | 94 | 100 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.6 | 4.22 | 5.18 | 40.7% | 0.89 | 4.37 | 3.79 | SEA | 112 | 96 | 105 |
| David Paulino | HOU | -1.9 | 4.61 | 4.44 | 34.6% | 0.93 | 5.04 | 4.7 | OAK | 113 | 100 | 105 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -6.8 | 4.13 | 5.93 | 51.0% | 1.02 | 3.82 | 3.94 | MIL | 94 | 95 | 96 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.6 | 3.98 | 5.91 | 57.2% | 1 | 3.39 | 3.13 | SFO | 83 | 79 | 111 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.3 | 3.47 | 6.49 | 53.2% | 0.94 | 3.82 | 4.46 | MIA | 97 | 94 | 84 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.6 | 4.63 | 5.5 | 49.0% | 0.94 | 4.35 | 3.77 | CHC | 88 | 110 | 108 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | -1.5 | 4.23 | 5.48 | 43.1% | 1.01 | 4.9 | 5.58 | NYY | 134 | 124 | 101 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -14.2 | 4.71 | 5.36 | 48.9% | 0.93 | 4.27 | 4.24 | HOU | 124 | 123 | 143 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | -0.3 | 3.92 | 6.39 | 42.6% | 1.04 | 4.47 | 4.64 | MIN | 102 | 98 | 88 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 5.8 | 3.73 | 5.46 | 49.7% | 1.01 | 3.52 | 4.1 | ANA | 81 | 93 | 102 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.3 | 3.61 | 6.38 | 60.7% | 1.11 | 3.38 | 3.03 | TEX | 99 | 94 | 117 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.5 | 4.85 | 5.79 | 52.7% | 1.11 | 4.62 | 4.05 | TOR | 90 | 91 | 112 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.6 | 4.97 | 5.12 | 39.3% | 1 | 5.69 | 6.37 | ATL | 89 | 93 | 86 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | -4.5 | 4.52 | 4.54 | 38.5% | 1.02 | 4.22 | 4.17 | BAL | 94 | 94 | 111 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 3.9 | 4.93 | 4.1 | 48.5% | 1.04 | 6.98 | 4.93 | CHW | 90 | 121 | 114 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.5 | 3.64 | 6.07 | 49.1% | 0.89 | 3.41 | 5.06 | LOS | 121 | 105 | 162 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -2.7 | 4.28 | 5.7 | 49.4% | 1.02 | 4.02 | 5.15 | CLE | 103 | 97 | 161 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 7.9 | 5.17 | 5.27 | 44.7% | 0.89 | 5.14 | 4.45 | DET | 84 | 98 | 95 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -7.4 | 4.06 | 5.53 | 53.9% | 1.39 | 3.54 | 3.88 | COL | 83 | 82 | 124 |
Important Note: It has come to my attention that though both were listed by MLB.com last night, neither Alex Wood nor Yovani Gallardo are pitching tonight. It will by Hyun-Jin Ryu and Andrew Moore, making his major league debut, instead. At least the handedness of the starters are still the same.
Alex Wood allowed one run in eight innings with five strikeouts last time out in Cincinnati. It was actually a poor start by his season standards. Strikeouts (18.5%) and ground balls (52.4%) were down. For the season, he has a 29.8 K% and 66.9 GB% with a 2.6% Barrels/BBE (26.5% 95+ mph EV). The Mets have a 15.3 K-BB% vs LHP and 26.2 K% over the last week.
Hyun-Jin Ryu lacks the strikeout and ground ball rates of Alex Wood, running around league average in those metrics (21.5 K%, 14.4 K-BB%, 46.8 GB%, 34.4 Hard%). He does seem to have a bit of a longer leash though, throwing more than 100 pitches in two of his last three starts, while only 68 in the other due to poor performance. Opposing team statistics still stand.
Jaime Garcia allowed six runs in his last start, but has struck out 16 of his last 53 batters and has a 56.5 GB% with a 1.6 Hard-Soft% for the season, generating more weak contact than hard last time out. HRs, which plagued him last season, have been under control this year, while the boost in strikeouts compliments exceptional contact management. The Giants have been better over the last week weeks and don’t strike out a lot, but have just a 27.3 Hard% and 7.6 HR/FB vs LHP.
Jake Arrieta has lasted less than five innings in two straight starts, though he has only allowed six base runners in his last one with seven strikeouts. He also generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground with one-third weak contact. It appeared to be a pretty good outing. His 18.2 K-BB% is a fairly strong mark, while his ground ball and contact authority rates are around league average. This should make him an above average pitcher in a slightly better than average matchup against the Marlins.
Luis Severino tied a season high with four runs and walked a season high four in his last outing. His 7.3 SwStr% was only the second time he’s been below 9% all season. That drops him to 10th in baseball with a 20.9 K-BB%, while ninth in ground ball rate (54.1%). We’re not going to jump off today in a favorable spot after one poor start. The Angels don’t strike out a ton, but around average with little power.
Mike Clevinger has not lasted five innings in either of his last two starts, though he was actually really good in his last one, allowing just a single run and striking out four of 15 batters. He has a 16.2 K-BB% on the season with a double digit walk rate, but a 20.6 K-BB% with a league average walk rate if you remove his first two starts. Against RHBs, he has allowed a .252 wOBA with a 30.9 K%. That’s significant because the Orioles have only a couple of LHBs. Despite a 10.2% Barrels/BBE rate, overall contact has not been that hard. Baltimore is not an ideal park, but they have a 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP and a 23.7 K-BB% overall over the last seven days.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
No qualifiers on the main slate.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jeff Locke has missed bats at a league average rate with a 54.8 GB% through four starts. He hasn’t been that bad with his ERA elevated only by a 64.7 LOB%. However, he had his worst start against this Cubs offense that is pretty good against LHP (13.0 BB%, 19.3 HR/FB) and his last two were against poor offenses ( ATL, PIT). With a long history of less than mediocrity, today’s probably a pass, but that could change with another good one tonight.
Daniel Norris has a 19.2 K-BB% with an 11.0 SwStr% in three June starts, although with just a 26.7 GB% and 48.9 Hard%. His 88.6 mph aEV on the season is tied for second highest on the board this season, though he hasn’t allowed a lot of barrels. The Mariners have just an 18.9 K% vs LHP, though also just an 8.9 HR/FB. He seems to be priced fairly accurately when considering the amount of hard contact being generated.
Steven Matz is no longer throwing a slider because he believes he will remain healthier that way. Without it, he’s no longer missing bats and not even really generating a lot of ground balls through two starts, though he has gone seven innings twice.
Andrew Moore is the fifth rated prospect in a weak Seattle system according to Fangraphs, which slaps the 23 year-old with a 45 Future Value grade. Prior to the season, he projected as a back-end piece who may be out-working his talent level. He’s found some success at AAA this season by combining an above average strikeout rate (23.3%) with excellent control (4.2 BB%) though just a 28.9 GB% in nine starts. Being a bit of an unknown, he might be able to get away with that and provide value for just $4.7K on DraftKings his first couple of times out, but it’s a bit scary against this Detroit offense that hits the ball so hard.
Matt Cain has made five starts over the last month. Look at that SwStr%. He hasn’t exceeded 5% in any of them.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.2% | 6.3% | Home | 26.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 8.0% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 7.2% | Home | 29.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.6% | 7.0% | Home | 15.4% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 7.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.7% | 8.2% | Road | 25.3% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 7.3% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.8% | Home | 20.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 2.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.8% | Road | 21.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.1% | Road | 19.4% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.5% | 4.8% | Road | 16.8% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 4.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.7% | Home | 21.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 7.6% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 7.7% | Road | 22.2% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 11.4% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.1% | 7.7% | Home | 16.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 4.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.2% | Road | 18.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 8.3% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.4% | 8.6% | Home | 16.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 11.1% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.0% | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.8% | 7.7% | Home | 24.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 12.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.2% | Road | 20.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 1.8% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.6% | 8.5% | Home | 14.2% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.4% | Road | 14.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.2% | 12.3% | Road | 25.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 6.7% |
| Nik Turley | Twins | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.7% | Home | 11.5% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 8.7% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 22.5% | 5.6% | Road | 21.8% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 1.8% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.4% | Home | 21.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 13.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.2% | 10.4% | Home | 16.3% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 18.7% | 5.3% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.3% | 8.5% | Road | 20.3% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 21.3% | 8.5% | RH | 21.0% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.9% | 9.0% | LH | 22.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 26.2% | 6.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.8% | 8.0% | RH | 22.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 8.5% | RH | 23.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.0% | 8.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.6% | 8.8% | RH | 18.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.4% | 9.6% | LH | 18.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.3% | 8.7% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.1% | 10.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.7% | 8.5% | RH | 24.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.8% | 5.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.3% | 8.3% | LH | 19.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | RH | 20.4% | 6.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 8.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 10.1% | LH | 21.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.6% | 11.3% | RH | 22.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 9.7% |
| Astros | Road | 18.5% | 8.9% | RH | 17.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 10.8% | LH | 19.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 10.2% |
| Angels | Road | 21.4% | 9.5% | RH | 20.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.1% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.3% | RH | 23.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.6% | 8.9% | LH | 22.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.7% |
| Braves | Home | 19.5% | 7.6% | RH | 19.6% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.7% | 4.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.5% | 7.0% | RH | 22.9% | 6.6% | L7Days | 28.0% | 4.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.1% | 5.8% | LH | 18.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.5% | 9.8% | LH | 21.0% | 10.2% | L7Days | 21.4% | 12.2% |
| Indians | Road | 18.4% | 9.6% | LH | 16.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.3% | 11.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.4% | 9.6% | RH | 23.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.3% | 7.4% | RH | 22.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.7% | 6.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.8% | 13.8% | 6.9% | 2017 | 29.0% | 13.3% | 6.0% | Home | 28.4% | 22.6% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 22.2% | 14.7% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 2017 | 21.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | Home | 24.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.6% | 17.1% | 14.6% | 2017 | 29.6% | 17.1% | 14.6% | Home | 29.9% | 20.4% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 57.1% | 7.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 2017 | 32.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | Road | 33.8% | 8.9% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 0.0% | 15.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 2017 | 33.1% | 7.4% | 14.6% | Home | 36.2% | 10.7% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 12.5% | 18.2% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 35.2% | 11.1% | 19.0% | 2017 | 42.5% | 8.5% | 25.1% | Road | 36.3% | 5.1% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 32.9% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 2017 | 35.7% | 13.8% | 25.0% | Road | 29.4% | 8.3% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 39.3% | 13.3% | 28.6% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.2% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 2017 | 32.0% | 11.5% | 14.7% | Road | 35.9% | 16.4% | 21.8% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 28.7% | 15.1% | 7.2% | 2017 | 25.5% | 12.9% | 1.6% | Home | 29.9% | 23.5% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.3% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 2017 | 32.4% | 16.4% | 11.4% | Road | 30.5% | 16.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% | 7.4% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 2017 | 30.7% | 10.0% | 14.6% | Home | 30.1% | 10.3% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 18.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 33.3% | 17.1% | 15.9% | 2017 | 35.6% | 18.9% | 19.6% | Road | 40.5% | 17.6% | 26.5% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 20.0% | 10.8% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.8% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 2017 | 28.1% | 1.8% | 7.9% | Home | 31.2% | 14.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% |
| Jose Quintana | White Sox | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 30.8% | 13.3% | 12.2% | Road | 29.9% | 6.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 22.2% | 42.8% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.2% | 16.1% | 5.7% | 2017 | 28.4% | 14.8% | 7.5% | Home | 30.1% | 21.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 8.3% | -3.5% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.5% | 16.5% | 10.9% | 2017 | 30.2% | 16.9% | 8.7% | Road | 30.3% | 20.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 30.0% | 4.7% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 2017 | 36.4% | 12.0% | 22.6% | Home | 31.2% | 12.4% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 10.0% | 36.3% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 33.0% | 13.5% | 14.5% | 2017 | 32.1% | 10.5% | 16.3% | Road | 31.9% | 13.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 16.7% | 10.2% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 31.0% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 2017 | 30.7% | 13.9% | 15.9% | Road | 29.5% | 14.0% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 30.0% |
| Nik Turley | Twins | L2 Years | 41.2% | 12.5% | 26.5% | 2017 | 41.2% | 12.5% | 26.5% | Home | 44.4% | 20.0% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 12.5% | 26.5% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 29.0% | 13.6% | 8.8% | 2017 | 34.7% | 16.7% | 20.4% | Road | 26.0% | 7.1% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 16.7% | 20.4% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.7% | 14.6% | 12.0% | 2017 | 34.3% | 18.9% | 13.5% | Home | 30.8% | 17.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.9% | 11.1% | 12.3% | 2017 | 34.7% | 14.5% | 17.4% | Home | 30.2% | 14.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 40.4% | 9.1% | 22.9% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.3% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 2017 | 30.6% | 11.5% | 9.0% | Road | 22.9% | 10.5% | -5.3% | L14 Days | 43.8% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Road | 32.9% | 14.8% | 15.9% | RH | 31.2% | 14.0% | 12.5% | L7Days | 37.7% | 27.0% | 24.2% |
| Mets | Road | 37.7% | 17.0% | 20.2% | LH | 35.0% | 11.2% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.9% | 15.1% | 9.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.5% | 13.0% | 11.4% | RH | 36.6% | 16.2% | 19.5% | L7Days | 35.7% | 14.9% | 13.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.7% | 13.2% | 10.2% | RH | 29.7% | 10.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 31.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 12.0% | 9.2% | RH | 30.4% | 10.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 30.8% | 17.4% | 11.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.4% | 11.8% | 9.8% | LH | 30.1% | 8.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 12.9% | 11.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.8% | 16.3% | 16.6% | RH | 34.1% | 14.3% | 17.6% | L7Days | 26.1% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.1% | 19.8% | 16.2% | RH | 33.6% | 19.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 33.3% | 29.2% | 12.0% |
| Giants | Road | 30.0% | 11.1% | 8.9% | LH | 27.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | L7Days | 29.8% | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.1% | 16.3% | 10.9% | RH | 31.1% | 14.2% | 11.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 12.5% | 7.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.9% | 13.7% | 8.1% | LH | 29.5% | 19.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 29.8% | 19.0% | 7.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.7% | 21.2% | 10.3% | RH | 32.3% | 18.2% | 13.2% | L7Days | 25.5% | 17.3% | 4.7% |
| Astros | Road | 32.4% | 15.0% | 15.1% | RH | 32.3% | 15.7% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 21.1% | 23.2% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 12.5% | 17.6% | LH | 31.3% | 9.4% | 12.7% | L7Days | 34.7% | 12.5% | 14.8% |
| Angels | Road | 32.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | RH | 30.8% | 13.4% | 11.1% | L7Days | 30.3% | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.3% | 16.2% | 14.8% | RH | 33.3% | 15.6% | 13.3% | L7Days | 43.4% | 19.7% | 27.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.0% | 16.0% | 14.0% | LH | 31.5% | 13.7% | 15.1% | L7Days | 39.1% | 13.8% | 23.6% |
| Braves | Home | 29.5% | 11.1% | 10.8% | RH | 31.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | L7Days | 25.3% | 17.5% | 3.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 28.8% | 16.0% | 7.5% | RH | 29.8% | 15.5% | 8.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 24.6% | 9.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.3% | 14.1% | 14.8% | LH | 29.7% | 13.3% | 10.6% | L7Days | 37.5% | 15.7% | 23.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.2% | 18.4% | 21.8% | LH | 33.5% | 15.3% | 18.6% | L7Days | 41.2% | 29.2% | 27.1% |
| Indians | Road | 35.8% | 12.3% | 19.0% | LH | 32.8% | 12.7% | 15.4% | L7Days | 34.9% | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.4% | 13.1% | 18.3% | RH | 42.4% | 12.5% | 27.4% | L7Days | 38.1% | 15.0% | 19.6% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.7% | 15.3% | 10.5% | RH | 29.4% | 13.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 33.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.27 | 22.5% | 8.2% | 2.74 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 29.8% | 12.1% | 2.46 | 29.4% | 12.0% | 2.45 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 17.6% | 6.6% | 2.67 | 22.6% | 7.2% | 3.14 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 28.5% | 11.0% | 2.59 | 33.1% | 11.1% | 2.98 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.8% | 10.4% | 2.19 | 28.8% | 11.7% | 2.46 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.25 | 24.8% | 9.6% | 2.58 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 23.8% | 8.3% | 2.87 | 23.8% | 8.3% | 2.87 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 14.3% | 7.2% | 1.99 | 13.5% | 6.9% | 1.96 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.56 | 20.0% | 12.9% | 1.55 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 25.7% | 10.4% | 2.47 | 27.4% | 10.8% | 2.54 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.01 | 20.9% | 10.4% | 2.01 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.20 | 14.3% | 6.4% | 2.23 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 19.0% | 7.7% | 2.47 | 18.5% | 7.6% | 2.43 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 22.6% | 8.3% | 2.72 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 2.66 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 27.7% | 11.7% | 2.37 | 27.3% | 12.8% | 2.13 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.7% | 10.0% | 1.97 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 1.66 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 17.0% | 7.7% | 2.21 | 19.0% | 9.6% | 1.98 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 13.7% | 4.7% | 2.91 | 10.4% | 2.8% | 3.71 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 28.4% | 13.8% | 2.06 | 27.7% | 15.1% | 1.83 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 15.2% | 5.4% | 2.81 | 15.2% | 5.4% | 2.81 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 10.7% | 4.0% | 2.68 | 10.7% | 4.0% | 2.68 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 20.4% | 7.5% | 2.72 | 15.2% | 6.3% | 2.41 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 16.9% | 7.9% | 2.14 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 2.19 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 22.6% | 13.5% | 1.67 | 25.0% | 13.1% | 1.91 |
Jaime Garcia has his highest SwStr% in three years and has been above 18% in each of his last two starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.76 | 4.09 | -0.67 | 3.86 | -0.9 | 3.81 | -0.95 | 3.31 | -1.45 | 5.79 | 4.01 | -1.78 | 3.85 | -1.94 | 4.37 | -1.42 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 1.9 | 2.67 | 0.77 | 2.56 | 0.66 | 2.13 | 0.23 | 2.45 | 0.55 | 1.93 | 2.43 | 0.5 | 2.65 | 0.72 | 2.48 | 0.55 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 4.1 | 4.55 | 0.45 | 4.33 | 0.23 | 4.72 | 0.62 | 5.81 | 1.71 | 4.91 | 3.59 | -1.32 | 3.19 | -1.72 | 4.62 | -0.29 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.86 | 3.58 | 0.72 | 3.36 | 0.5 | 3.07 | 0.21 | 2.24 | -0.62 | 2.21 | 3.1 | 0.89 | 2.84 | 0.63 | 1.92 | -0.29 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.92 | 4.2 | 1.28 | 4.31 | 1.39 | 3.38 | 0.46 | 4.36 | 1.44 | 1.04 | 3.21 | 2.17 | 3.41 | 2.37 | 2.4 | 1.36 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.42 | 4.6 | 0.18 | 4.68 | 0.26 | 3.89 | -0.53 | 4.17 | -0.25 | 3.81 | 4.07 | 0.26 | 4.33 | 0.52 | 3.55 | -0.26 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 5.03 | 4.11 | -0.92 | 4.5 | -0.53 | 4.5 | -0.53 | 6.26 | 1.23 | 5.03 | 4.12 | -0.91 | 4.5 | -0.53 | 4.5 | -0.53 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.91 | 4.35 | 1.44 | 3.97 | 1.06 | 3.7 | 0.79 | 4.22 | 1.31 | 3.41 | 4.75 | 1.34 | 4.29 | 0.88 | 4.4 | 0.99 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 3.59 | 4.55 | 0.96 | 4.18 | 0.59 | 4.09 | 0.5 | 4.67 | 1.08 | 2.91 | 3.65 | 0.74 | 3.33 | 0.42 | 3.09 | 0.18 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 4.64 | 3.79 | -0.85 | 3.76 | -0.88 | 4.08 | -0.56 | 3.86 | -0.78 | 4.33 | 3.76 | -0.57 | 3.4 | -0.93 | 4.2 | -0.13 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.58 | 4.06 | -0.52 | 4.03 | -0.55 | 3.53 | -1.05 | 4.79 | 0.21 | 4.58 | 4.07 | -0.51 | 4.03 | -0.55 | 3.53 | -1.05 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 4.85 | 4.69 | -0.16 | 4.67 | -0.18 | 5.45 | 0.6 | 5.03 | 0.18 | 5.33 | 5.17 | -0.16 | 5.19 | -0.14 | 6.23 | 0.9 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 3.56 | 4.49 | 0.93 | 4.17 | 0.61 | 2.86 | -0.7 | 4.10 | 0.54 | 5 | 4.15 | -0.85 | 3.52 | -1.48 | 2.62 | -2.38 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 5.07 | 4.4 | -0.67 | 4.42 | -0.65 | 4.35 | -0.72 | 4.51 | -0.56 | 7.77 | 3.89 | -3.88 | 3.57 | -4.2 | 5.3 | -2.47 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 2.99 | 3.35 | 0.36 | 3.14 | 0.15 | 3.23 | 0.24 | 2.57 | -0.42 | 2.1 | 3.38 | 1.28 | 3.31 | 1.21 | 2.66 | 0.56 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.15 | 3.68 | 0.53 | 3.53 | 0.38 | 3.8 | 0.65 | 3.80 | 0.65 | 3.41 | 3.62 | 0.21 | 3.61 | 0.2 | 4.77 | 1.36 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.72 | 4.9 | 0.18 | 4.55 | -0.17 | 4.32 | -0.4 | 5.07 | 0.35 | 6.75 | 4.58 | -2.17 | 4.44 | -2.31 | 5.02 | -1.73 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.99 | 5.45 | 0.46 | 5.26 | 0.27 | 4.76 | -0.23 | 8.29 | 3.30 | 5.13 | 5.17 | 0.04 | 4.87 | -0.26 | 5.14 | 0.01 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.89 | 4.15 | 0.26 | 4.06 | 0.17 | 4.07 | 0.18 | 2.98 | -0.91 | 5.95 | 3.81 | -2.14 | 4.14 | -1.81 | 5.16 | -0.79 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 12.46 | 4.91 | -7.55 | 4.9 | -7.56 | 4.74 | -7.72 | 6.00 | -6.46 | 12.46 | 4.93 | -7.53 | 4.9 | -7.56 | 4.74 | -7.72 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 3.21 | 5.06 | 1.85 | 4.79 | 1.58 | 5.27 | 2.06 | 5.72 | 2.51 | 3.21 | 5.06 | 1.85 | 4.79 | 1.58 | 5.27 | 2.06 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 4.29 | 4.78 | 0.49 | 4.33 | 0.04 | 4.82 | 0.53 | 4.39 | 0.10 | 7.94 | 4.97 | -2.97 | 4.72 | -3.22 | 5.51 | -2.43 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 6.3 | 4.99 | -1.31 | 4.73 | -1.57 | 4.81 | -1.49 | 5.08 | -1.22 | 7.18 | 5.17 | -2.01 | 4.99 | -2.19 | 4.98 | -2.2 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.34 | 3.78 | 1.44 | 3.32 | 0.98 | 3.16 | 0.82 | 3.21 | 0.87 | 2.22 | 3.34 | 1.12 | 2.9 | 0.68 | 2.55 | 0.33 |
Alex Wood has an unsustainably low 6.9 HR/FB, but allows so few fly balls that he may not even see that correction this year.
Jaime Garcia has .267 BABIP and though his career rate is .299, he’s matched that number in two of his last three (shortened) seasons and has generated lots of weak ground balls and the defense is only 15 points higher. He also has four unearned runs (10.8%).
Jake Arrieta may be flying a bit high on the BABIP. His profile isn’t nearly as exceptional as recent seasons, but it’s not terrible and the defense is still good. The 65.8% strand rate should improve as well.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.306 | 0.322 | 0.016 | 49.7% | 0.205 | 6.7% | 83.9% | 86.8 | 4.60% | 3.20% | 152 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.282 | 0.268 | -0.014 | 66.9% | 0.139 | 13.8% | 86.0% | 85.3 | 2.60% | 1.70% | 151 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.292 | 0.267 | -0.025 | 48.0% | 0.216 | 6.6% | 90.0% | 87.2 | 6.70% | 5.00% | 253 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.297 | 0.257 | -0.04 | 50.9% | 0.177 | 13.7% | 85.9% | 86.9 | 4.70% | 2.90% | 234 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.303 | 0.283 | -0.02 | 38.7% | 0.196 | 10.6% | 83.6% | 84.3 | 4.30% | 3.00% | 233 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.312 | 0.357 | 0.045 | 40.7% | 0.213 | 7.3% | 89.1% | 88.6 | 6.40% | 4.30% | 219 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 0.287 | 0.327 | 0.04 | 30.9% | 0.164 | 10.3% | 84.8% | 88.6 | 10.30% | 7.10% | 58 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.261 | -0.043 | 48.8% | 0.223 | 9.2% | 92.8% | 88 | 5.80% | 4.80% | 313 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.282 | 0.267 | -0.015 | 56.5% | 0.183 | 6.5% | 86.5% | 85 | 4.00% | 2.90% | 251 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.288 | 0.319 | 0.031 | 43.8% | 0.228 | 9.6% | 82.0% | 87 | 6.40% | 4.20% | 219 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.286 | 0.300 | 0.014 | 54.8% | 0.129 | 5.0% | 86.6% | 87.9 | 4.80% | 3.50% | 62 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.290 | 0.277 | -0.013 | 41.8% | 0.211 | 5.3% | 86.6% | 88.8 | 9.40% | 7.00% | 256 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.294 | 0.305 | 0.011 | 47.7% | 0.246 | 7.3% | 88.9% | 87.1 | 3.90% | 2.80% | 203 |
| Jose Quintana | CHW | 0.283 | 0.302 | 0.019 | 41.2% | 0.202 | 15.6% | 89.6% | 87.3 | 6.30% | 4.30% | 237 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.284 | 0.267 | -0.017 | 54.1% | 0.164 | 9.8% | 85.1% | 87.1 | 7.60% | 4.90% | 211 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.302 | 0.314 | 0.012 | 61.2% | 0.163 | 3.4% | 88.5% | 88.1 | 7.20% | 5.30% | 265 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.286 | 0.352 | 0.066 | 43.8% | 0.261 | 9.3% | 89.8% | 87.6 | 6.30% | 4.70% | 253 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.316 | 0.336 | 0.02 | 44.1% | 0.223 | 8.1% | 91.3% | 87.8 | 4.20% | 3.30% | 259 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.307 | 0.241 | -0.066 | 39.1% | 0.195 | 8.3% | 82.4% | 87.7 | 10.20% | 6.10% | 88 |
| Nik Turley | MIN | 0.288 | 0.485 | 0.197 | 48.5% | 0.273 | 12.5% | 87.2% | 87.8 | 5.90% | 4.30% | 34 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.318 | 0.217 | -0.101 | 41.7% | 0.208 | 0.0% | 93.8% | 87.3 | 6.10% | 5.40% | 49 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.313 | 0.316 | 0.003 | 53.5% | 0.219 | 11.3% | 91.9% | 87.7 | 6.00% | 4.00% | 216 |
| Yovani Gallardo | SEA | 0.284 | 0.321 | 0.037 | 46.1% | 0.226 | 17.1% | 88.4% | 88.1 | 5.60% | 4.10% | 248 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.292 | 0.252 | -0.04 | 60.3% | 0.19 | 11.5% | 88.0% | 83.6 | 4.50% | 3.10% | 134 |
Mike Clevinger has a decent profile, but a poor defense and .241 may be a bit too low to sustain.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Important Note: It has come to my attention that though both were listed by MLB.com last night, neither Alex Wood nor Yovani Gallardo are pitching tonight. It will by Hyun-Jin Ryu and Andrew Moore, making his major league debut, instead. At least the handedness of the starters are still the same.
Value Tier One
Alex Wood still costs less than $10K because he only throws 90 pitches per game. He got through eight innings last time out with 89.
Value Tier Two
Luis Severino is coming off his worst start of the season and is the most expensive pitcher on either site. All he has over Wood is a higher pitch count, which should get him through an extra inning, but is not nearly enough performance-wise to exceed him by $3K on DraftKings. In fact, I’d drop him down a tier, in line with the next two guys at that cost.
Value Tier Three
Jaime Garcia is back to generating weak ground balls and has missed a ton of bats recently. The Giants have been better. We knew they weren’t that bad, but still don’t have much power.
Jake Arrieta has been an above average pitcher by all the components and should be in a slightly favorable spot tonight. Sequencing a bit better should bring that ERA down below four the at some point. He still may be close to a $10K pitcher.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Mike Clevinger has only started seven games, but it’s still impressive that he has the top SwStr% on the board. He’s dominated RHBs, which is significant in this spot. He probably has to be considered on this slate at a very low cost on DraftKings. The concern is that they pulled him after 71 pitches in the middle of a strong outing last time out, but he has thrown 100 pitches twice in his last five major league starts.
Hyun-Jin Ryu costs about $2K less than Wood, when the difference is probably greater than that even considering that he may get 10-15 more pitches. It’s still a quality matchup for a pitcher who could be around league average if he curbed his HR problem. Remember that this Mets team homered four times against Kershaw on Monday. I’d have trouble pushing him any higher.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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