Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, May 18th
What was supposed to be a five-game night, turned into a six-game night when Colorado and Minnesota were quickly rescheduled for a double-header tonight. While we’ll list pitchers from both games, it appears that this decision wasn’t made in time to be included in the night slate, so we still may be at just five games. If that changes, the pitchers are listed, but we won’t be talking about them today. Berrios would probably just frustrate the hell out of me anyway.
That said, I would recommend using pitchers only if you absolutely must on this slate and God help those of you who have to choose two. There is not an above average fantasy option on this menu and none of these pitchers would have likely made it even yesterday, on another poor slate.
We do have two guys making their first major league starts, but neither appears anything other than a spot starter for teams with a long list of injured pitchers. And if you’re wondering why Hector Velazquez is out of alphabetical order, it’s because I originally listed the wrong starter (Vince Velasquez) after only seeing the last name.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 20.7 | 4.61 | 6. | 44.7% | 0.96 | 4.89 | 7.59 | CHC | 92 | 105 | 95 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 8.5 | 4 | 6.04 | 38.1% | 1.06 | 4.09 | 4.73 | NYY | 113 | 117 | 120 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.4 | 4.31 | 5.6 | 34.0% | 0.98 | 4.68 | 3.95 | DET | 115 | 102 | 111 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | -2.7 | 5.16 | 4.85 | 44.2% | 0.89 | 5.84 | 3.39 | SEA | 125 | 114 | 83 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.8 | 4.59 | 5.67 | 48.2% | 0.89 | 4.78 | 4.12 | LOS | 124 | 117 | 113 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 11 | 4.38 | 6.24 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 4.25 | 5.76 | COL | 78 | 75 | 93 |
| German Marquez | COL | 2.6 | 4.12 | 5.59 | 51.0% | 1.04 | 3.84 | 4.15 | MIN | 101 | 106 | 82 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | -1.3 | 4.18 | 5.01 | 43.8% | 0.89 | 3.35 | 7.14 | MIA | 97 | 106 | 65 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | -9.1 | 5.35 | 4.3 | 59.3% | 0.91 | 4.69 | MIL | 97 | 99 | 121 | |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.4 | 3.43 | 6.34 | 49.1% | 0.96 | 3.43 | 3.08 | CIN | 102 | 103 | 78 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0 | 4.4 | 5.68 | 37.8% | 1.06 | 4.93 | 4.88 | KAN | 80 | 56 | 123 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 4.3 | 4.3 | 5.92 | 40.4% | 0.98 | 5.46 | 5.74 | BAL | 106 | 100 | 126 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 11 | 5.29 | 4.4 | 37.5% | 1.04 | 5.3 | 5.09 | COL | 78 | 75 | 93 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 5.4 | 4.19 | 6.21 | 38.4% | 1 | 4.23 | 5.24 | TOR | 87 | 83 | 115 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.4 | 3.61 | 6.41 | 60.2% | 1 | 3.41 | 4.57 | ATL | 89 | 94 | 113 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.7 | 4.88 | 5.84 | 53.9% | 1.11 | 4.65 | 3.79 | PHI | 84 | 103 | 83 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 11.1 | 3.92 | 4.73 | 37.5% | 1.11 | 4.79 | 3.98 | TEX | 101 | 104 | 135 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 5.3 | 0.51 | 25.0% | 0.89 | 0.51 | CHW | 79 | 76 | 112 | ||
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -7.8 | 4.13 | 5.94 | 54.0% | 0.93 | 4.12 | 4.57 | BOS | 115 | 100 | 70 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -6 | 4.23 | 6.02 | 48.0% | 0.97 | 4.22 | 4.68 | PIT | 93 | 78 | 73 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.6 | 4.57 | 5.89 | 57.1% | 1.04 | 4.26 | 4.21 | MIN | 101 | 106 | 82 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -5.8 | 4.81 | 4.11 | 44.0% | 0.97 | 5.53 | 4.49 | WAS | 111 | 113 | 108 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 0.4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.93 | OAK | 110 | 100 | 103 | |||
| Zach Davies | MIL | -5.8 | 4.23 | 5.65 | 46.1% | 0.91 | 4.38 | 4.45 | SDG | 77 | 85 | 91 |
Jordan Montgomery tied a season high with seven strikeouts in his last start. In fact, he’s done that in three of his six starts. He’s not without upside, as his 22.5 K% and 13.4 SwStr% show. He does have a double digit walk rate, but eight of his 15 walks came in back-to-back starts before settling back down to one in his last start. He’s been a fly ball pitcher (37.8 GB%) with just a 23.5 Hard% and that’s probably a further asset here. The Royals have just a 79 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against fly ball pitchers in addition to their 9.1 HR/FB at home and 5.7 HR/FB vs LHP. They are one of the hotter offenses on the board though.
Marcus Stroman has struck out 22 batters over his last four starts. Nineteen of them came in two of them sandwiching them around two others with three combined. After pitching into the seventh inning in four of his first five starts, he hasn’t exceeded six in any of his last three. One thing that has remained consistent is his 58.7 GB% (fifth in baseball). The Braves are probably almost a neutral matchup with Freeman, but a fairly favorable one without him, even if they don’t strike out a ton.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.288 BABIP – 73.4 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Danny Duffy (.320 – 76.6% – 3.6) hasn’t been the same pitcher. Velocity is down. Strikeouts are down. His SwStr% has been up and down, but was 15.5% in his last start after being below six in two of his previous three. Walks are up. He’s the third straight fly ball pitcher the Royals will toss at the Yankees. Generally an asset in that park, the Yankees mash fly ball pitchers (145 sOPS+ is best in baseball) as well as LHP.
Julio Teheran (.283 – 73.8 – 8.1) may not be enjoying his new ballpark, but it could be even worse once his HR rate reaches his 10% career mark. If it reaches a league average mark in a more power friendly park, he’s going to really be in trouble, especially if the strikeout rate remains well below average.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Hyun-Jin Ryu worked his way up over 100 pitches in his last start and is tied for the highest strikeout rate on the night slate, but like the pitcher he is tied with, he has had some major walk issues. He’s walked nine of his last 49 batters and has only gone six innings in two of his six starts this season. The Marlins (19.2 HR/FB vs LHP) have some lefty-mashers in the middle of that lineup.
Sonny Gray is no longer missing bats at even a league average rate and though he’s at least retained his velocity and ground ball rate (56.1%), he’s also seemingly lost the ability to generate weak contact. At 25% in both 2013 and 2014, he’s been above 30% in each of the last two seasons. Perhaps he’ll eventually return to prominence, although he was never all that useful in a daily fantasy sense, but tonight, he faces a Boston lineup with the lowest strikeout rate on the board (17.4% vs RHP).
Edinson Volquez has a 15.3 BB%, which just about renders his 23.6 K% completely useless. He’s not gone more than six innings this season, reaching that mark only twice. The Dodgers pound mediocre RHP.
Hector Velazquez is a 28 year-old Mexican League product who signed with the Red Sox this year and has produced a 14.0 K-BB% at AAA due to a low walk rate (4.7%). A little bit of complicated math should then help you figure out the strikeout rate. He has kept the ball on the ground at a remarkably consistent rate between 51.9% and 52.8% everywhere he’s been over the last four years. Oakland does not have a bad offense, but the park favors pitching.
Sam Gaviglio made his major league debut less than a month shy of his 27th birthday with two innings of relief last week, in which he struck out four of eight Blue Jays. He had just a 12.4 K% at AAA this year and hasn’t been above 20% since AA in 2014. He has generated ground balls at more than 50% at nearly every stop along his minor league journey.
Dylan Covey
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 18.9% | 9.5% | Road | 14.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.8% | 6.9% | Home | 21.0% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 5.4% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.0% | Road | 21.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 4.2% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 14.4% | 9.4% | Road | 6.9% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 6.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.7% | 9.2% | Road | 15.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 8.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.8% | Home | 19.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.0% | Road | 18.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 7.4% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.6% | 9.8% | Home | 28.2% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 14.8% | 14.6% | Home | 17.5% | 14.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.6% | Home | 25.3% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 12.0% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.5% | 10.2% | Road | 15.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.7% | 5.4% | Home | 12.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 17.2% | 11.7% | Home | 17.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.4% | Home | 22.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.3% | Road | 20.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 10.5% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.9% | 8.7% | Home | 13.0% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.9% | 7.1% | Road | 22.2% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 50.0% | 0.0% | Home | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | ||
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.2% | 7.6% | Home | 17.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 10.9% | 6.5% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.7% | Road | 18.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 14.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.6% | Road | 18.7% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 15.6% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.4% | 13.2% | Home | 19.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 9.5% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.9% | Road | 17.6% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 21.4% | 10.7% | LH | 21.9% | 14.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.7% | 10.1% | LH | 22.3% | 12.2% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.4% | 10.1% | RH | 22.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 9.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.8% | 10.8% | RH | 21.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 25.7% | 9.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.6% | 9.5% | RH | 20.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.3% | 7.2% | RH | 22.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 11.6% | RH | 22.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.6% | 6.0% | LH | 21.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.3% | 6.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.8% | 7.1% | RH | 24.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.6% |
| Reds | Road | 17.7% | 8.1% | LH | 17.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.8% |
| Royals | Home | 19.1% | 7.5% | LH | 20.7% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.5% | 6.6% | RH | 21.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 25.3% | 7.2% | RH | 22.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 6.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.0% | 8.3% | RH | 20.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 14.6% | 8.0% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 9.2% | RH | 20.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 24.6% | 8.1% | LH | 20.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.2% | 9.1% | RH | 21.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 12.8% | 8.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 5.8% | RH | 23.2% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.6% | 9.9% | RH | 17.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.8% | 10.2% | RH | 18.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.9% | 11.6% | RH | 22.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 25.8% | 10.1% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.3% | 10.0% | RH | 19.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 15.1% | 8.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.1% | 8.8% | RH | 23.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 23.0% | 9.0% | RH | 25.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 9.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 35.6% | 15.8% | 21.2% | 2017 | 35.6% | 15.8% | 21.2% | Road | 42.3% | 23.5% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 2017 | 30.3% | 3.6% | 15.5% | Home | 37.2% | 10.1% | 20.8% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.8% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 2017 | 30.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | Road | 31.0% | 11.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 12.5% | 14.3% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 37.1% | 23.7% | 18.0% | 2017 | 37.1% | 23.7% | 18.0% | Road | 37.2% | 24.1% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 44.8% | 36.4% | 34.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 2017 | 37.9% | 12.9% | 21.1% | Road | 34.7% | 16.3% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | -6.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.4% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 2017 | 25.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% | Home | 27.1% | 10.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| German Marquez | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 2017 | 28.4% | 8.0% | 14.9% | Road | 34.6% | 15.4% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.4% | 22.6% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 24.0% | 7.8% | Home | 34.1% | 28.6% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 23.5% |
| Jarred Cosart | Padres | L2 Years | 28.3% | 14.1% | 4.8% | 2017 | 34.6% | 0.0% | 11.5% | Home | 29.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.8% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 2017 | 26.4% | 13.5% | 6.2% | Home | 27.0% | 9.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 20.0% | -7.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 2017 | 23.5% | 6.5% | 7.2% | Road | 21.1% | 0.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.3% | 12.8% | 2017 | 42.3% | 14.1% | 27.7% | Home | 36.0% | 14.4% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 21.1% | 29.2% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.8% | 14.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% | Home | 36.1% | 16.7% | 21.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 4.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 32.4% | 10.0% | 14.3% | 2017 | 32.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | Home | 33.7% | 11.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 11.1% | 13.2% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 15.3% | 11.1% | 2017 | 29.5% | 11.4% | 8.3% | Road | 31.1% | 19.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 14.3% | 10.4% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 8.9% | 12.6% | 2017 | 34.7% | 7.5% | 19.4% | Home | 29.2% | 10.0% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 6.8% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 45.8% | 27.8% | 37.5% | 2017 | 45.8% | 27.8% | 37.5% | Road | 43.3% | 15.4% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 40.0% | 32.2% |
| Sam Gaviglio | Mariners | L2 Years | 50.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2017 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | Home | L14 Days | 50.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% | |||
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.5% | 14.7% | 13.9% | 2017 | 31.6% | 17.6% | 17.6% | Home | 31.4% | 14.3% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.5% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 2017 | 27.6% | 9.8% | 9.7% | Road | 23.0% | 12.2% | -0.3% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 0.0% | 14.8% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.9% | 16.1% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.4% | 32.1% | 10.2% | Road | 25.1% | 10.3% | -0.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | 2017 | 22.5% | 14.3% | 1.1% | Home | 14.9% | 3.3% | -5.8% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| Hector Velazquez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.0% | 12.6% | 13.7% | 2017 | 36.3% | 14.6% | 14.1% | Road | 32.0% | 12.3% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 22.2% | 3.2% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 27.9% | 12.3% | 9.8% | LH | 26.3% | 17.1% | 1.3% | L7Days | 38.4% | 19.0% | 22.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 28.6% | 12.5% | 10.2% | LH | 26.5% | 15.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 30.6% | 17.9% | 9.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.8% | 12.5% | 37.5% | RH | 43.6% | 11.9% | 28.8% | L7Days | 49.1% | 16.4% | 40.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | RH | 30.5% | 11.9% | 12.4% | L7Days | 29.6% | 9.7% | 8.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 35.7% | 14.5% | 22.4% | RH | 35.1% | 13.1% | 20.5% | L7Days | 37.8% | 9.1% | 25.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | RH | 31.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 14.7% | 14.1% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.7% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 14.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.9% | 11.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 13.3% | 9.5% | LH | 30.6% | 19.2% | 5.6% | L7Days | 35.5% | 13.0% | 12.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 29.9% | 19.2% | 12.5% | RH | 34.8% | 19.8% | 16.6% | L7Days | 38.1% | 17.9% | 19.3% |
| Reds | Road | 29.4% | 11.7% | 8.0% | LH | 29.3% | 16.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 27.8% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
| Royals | Home | 30.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | LH | 26.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | L7Days | 32.7% | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.6% | 15.1% | 18.1% | RH | 30.6% | 14.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 38.1% | 15.0% | 21.2% |
| Rockies | Road | 33.3% | 12.3% | 13.4% | RH | 31.6% | 13.0% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 14.7% | 14.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.2% | 14.6% | 11.9% | RH | 30.3% | 12.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 32.2% | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| Braves | Home | 30.4% | 12.0% | 12.5% | RH | 31.0% | 11.2% | 12.5% | L7Days | 31.7% | 8.5% | 15.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 30.0% | 11.7% | 7.5% | LH | 31.4% | 16.5% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.2% | 15.2% | 14.7% | RH | 33.3% | 16.0% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.8% | 11.8% | 10.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.4% | 11.8% | 10.1% | RH | 26.9% | 12.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 14.5% | 8.1% |
| Red Sox | Road | 36.0% | 10.9% | 16.9% | RH | 37.4% | 9.7% | 19.4% | L7Days | 31.1% | 8.8% | 10.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.4% | 10.8% | 6.1% | RH | 29.0% | 8.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 17.9% | 12.8% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 11.7% | 16.2% | RH | 33.5% | 14.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 17.9% | 11.5% |
| Nationals | Road | 30.1% | 15.2% | 12.9% | RH | 31.7% | 14.7% | 14.9% | L7Days | 32.6% | 13.5% | 15.6% |
| Athletics | Home | 34.3% | 16.5% | 20.7% | RH | 36.0% | 14.2% | 20.1% | L7Days | 34.8% | 13.5% | 18.3% |
| Padres | Home | 26.6% | 11.5% | 3.6% | RH | 29.1% | 15.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 31.8% | 12.5% | 13.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 18.9% | 9.3% | 2.03 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 1.98 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 16.7% | 12.0% | 1.39 | 13.5% | 10.8% | 1.25 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.77 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 1.76 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 14.4% | 6.6% | 2.18 | 16.2% | 7.3% | 2.22 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 23.6% | 9.3% | 2.54 | 21.6% | 9.3% | 2.32 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 | 20.5% | 8.2% | 2.50 |
| German Marquez | COL | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 23.6% | 11.5% | 2.05 | 23.5% | 11.9% | 1.97 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 11.1% | 8.3% | 1.34 | 13.3% | 10.0% | 1.33 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 24.6% | 10.8% | 2.28 | 24.8% | 12.1% | 2.05 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.5% | 13.4% | 1.68 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 1.62 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 12.6% | 8.3% | 1.52 | 12.4% | 9.4% | 1.32 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 14.8% | 6.7% | 2.21 | 14.8% | 6.7% | 2.21 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 16.9% | 9.0% | 1.88 | 15.2% | 8.9% | 1.71 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.0% | 8.9% | 2.13 | 20.3% | 9.8% | 2.07 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 14.1% | 6.4% | 2.20 | 11.1% | 6.1% | 1.82 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.41 | 22.9% | 9.5% | 2.41 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 50.0% | 10.0% | 5.00 | 50.0% | 10.0% | 5.00 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 12.7% | 7.9% | 1.61 | 12.7% | 7.9% | 1.61 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 20.3% | 8.9% | 2.28 | 22.7% | 8.7% | 2.61 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 18.9% | 9.1% | 2.08 | 17.7% | 8.8% | 2.01 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 | 20.5% | 8.7% | 2.36 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | ||||||
| Zach Davies | MIL | 18.0% | 7.1% | 2.54 | 19.5% | 7.1% | 2.75 |
Danny Duffy could inspire some confidence in his SwStr%,, but it’s been inconsistent and lower than last year with the velocity drop.
Jordan Montgomery has had a double digit SwStr% in every start, but his last two have been the only two not above 11%.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.14 ERA – 4.20 SIERA – 4.15 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 4.25 | 4.61 | 0.36 | 4.59 | 0.34 | 4.97 | 0.72 | 6.38 | 2.13 | 5.79 | 4.98 | -0.81 | 4.96 | -0.83 | 5.86 | 0.07 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.38 | 4.75 | 1.37 | 4.7 | 1.32 | 3.34 | -0.04 | 4.30 | 0.92 | 4.4 | 5.07 | 0.67 | 4.91 | 0.51 | 3.03 | -1.37 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 2.26 | 4.52 | 2.26 | 4.46 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.14 | 3.86 | 1.60 | 2.51 | 5.22 | 2.71 | 5.19 | 2.68 | 4.39 | 1.88 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 7.98 | 5.16 | -2.82 | 5.29 | -2.69 | 7.08 | -0.9 | 8.95 | 0.97 | 9.38 | 4.89 | -4.49 | 5.22 | -4.16 | 7.69 | -1.69 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 4.41 | 4.88 | 0.47 | 4.57 | 0.16 | 4.56 | 0.15 | 3.62 | -0.79 | 5.21 | 5.99 | 0.78 | 5.45 | 0.24 | 4.71 | -0.5 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 1.5 | 4.61 | 3.11 | 4.52 | 3.02 | 4.18 | 2.68 | 2.52 | 1.02 | 2.25 | 4.91 | 2.66 | 4.9 | 2.65 | 5.03 | 2.78 |
| German Marquez | COL | 4.88 | 4.15 | -0.73 | 4.04 | -0.84 | 3.36 | -1.52 | 6.83 | 1.95 | 4.88 | 4.15 | -0.73 | 4.04 | -0.84 | 3.36 | -1.52 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.99 | 4.07 | -0.92 | 3.92 | -1.07 | 5.08 | 0.09 | 6.14 | 1.15 | 4.64 | 4.27 | -0.37 | 4.13 | -0.51 | 4.53 | -0.11 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 3.24 | 6.34 | 3.1 | 5.65 | 2.41 | 4.23 | 0.99 | 5.07 | 1.83 | 2.45 | 5.71 | 3.26 | 5.42 | 2.97 | 3.57 | 1.12 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 3.45 | 3.86 | 0.41 | 3.62 | 0.17 | 3.67 | 0.22 | 2.84 | -0.61 | 4.97 | 3.96 | -1.01 | 3.54 | -1.43 | 4.61 | -0.36 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 4.19 | 4.4 | 0.21 | 4.77 | 0.58 | 3.64 | -0.55 | 3.15 | -1.04 | 4.25 | 4.64 | 0.39 | 4.93 | 0.68 | 3.47 | -0.78 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.28 | 5.63 | -0.65 | 5.86 | -0.42 | 6.08 | -0.2 | 6.60 | 0.32 | 6.75 | 5.4 | -1.35 | 5.59 | -1.16 | 6.46 | -0.29 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 1.17 | 5.07 | 3.9 | 5.64 | 4.47 | 2.77 | 1.6 | 3.76 | 2.59 | 1.17 | 5.09 | 3.92 | 5.64 | 4.47 | 2.77 | 1.6 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 4.08 | 5.22 | 1.14 | 5.38 | 1.3 | 4.52 | 0.44 | 5.32 | 1.24 | 6.26 | 5.51 | -0.75 | 5.84 | -0.42 | 5.55 | -0.71 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.33 | 3.71 | 0.38 | 3.5 | 0.17 | 3.36 | 0.03 | 4.15 | 0.82 | 4 | 3.74 | -0.26 | 3.67 | -0.33 | 3.39 | -0.61 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 3.89 | 5.2 | 1.31 | 4.73 | 0.84 | 4.07 | 0.18 | 5.25 | 1.36 | 4.88 | 5.21 | 0.33 | 4.82 | -0.06 | 3.57 | -1.31 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 6.14 | 3.91 | -2.23 | 4.15 | -1.99 | 6.5 | 0.36 | 9.75 | 3.61 | 6.14 | 3.92 | -2.22 | 4.15 | -1.99 | 6.5 | 0.36 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 4.5 | 0.51 | -3.99 | 0.72 | -3.78 | 5.53 | 1.03 | 4.5 | 0.51 | -3.99 | 0.72 | -3.78 | 5.53 | 1.03 | ||
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 3.78 | 4.68 | 0.9 | 4.58 | 0.8 | 5.19 | 1.41 | 5.43 | 1.65 | 3.78 | 4.69 | 0.91 | 4.58 | 0.8 | 5.19 | 1.41 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.88 | 4.28 | 0.4 | 4.07 | 0.19 | 3.7 | -0.18 | 3.10 | -0.78 | 4.13 | 4.59 | 0.46 | 4.21 | 0.08 | 4.55 | 0.42 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 5.25 | 4.42 | -0.83 | 3.85 | -1.4 | 5.3 | 0.05 | 3.91 | -1.34 | 6.51 | 5.13 | -1.38 | 4.33 | -2.18 | 5.7 | -0.81 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 7.98 | 5.06 | -2.92 | 5.29 | -2.69 | 5.48 | -2.5 | 10.32 | 2.34 | 6.75 | 4.89 | -1.86 | 5.23 | -1.52 | 5.28 | -1.47 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | ||||||||||||||||
| Zach Davies | MIL | 5.8 | 4.7 | -1.1 | 4.85 | -0.95 | 5.09 | -0.71 | 7.66 | 1.86 | 4.15 | 4.33 | 0.18 | 4.47 | 0.32 | 5.14 | 0.99 |
Jordan Montgomery has a slightly high BABIP and low strand rate, but also a low 6.5 HR/FB. Weak contact has helped that along, but it’s not a sustainable mark, especially for Yankee Stadium.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .288 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.0 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.265 | 0.235 | -0.03 | 44.7% | 0.184 | 5.3% | 87.2% | 89.3 | 3.80% | 2.70% | 104 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.296 | 0.320 | 0.024 | 40.8% | 0.224 | 8.9% | 84.6% | 87.5 | 5.80% | 4.30% | 155 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.300 | 0.253 | -0.047 | 29.9% | 0.272 | 19.0% | 88.2% | 87.5 | 6.70% | 5.00% | 150 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.270 | 0.344 | 0.074 | 44.2% | 0.192 | 0.0% | 91.5% | 90.6 | 10.50% | 7.90% | 105 |
| Edinson Volquez | MIA | 0.279 | 0.330 | 0.051 | 43.0% | 0.237 | 3.2% | 85.4% | 87.7 | 7.40% | 4.50% | 95 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.269 | 0.128 | -0.141 | 44.9% | 0.132 | 15.8% | 88.7% | 83.2 | 2.90% | 2.00% | 138 |
| German Marquez | COL | 0.283 | 0.292 | 0.009 | 47.3% | 0.189 | 4.0% | 92.0% | 89.1 | 4.10% | 2.90% | 74 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.298 | 0.345 | 0.047 | 44.3% | 0.273 | 16.0% | 83.6% | 86.4 | 7.80% | 5.00% | 90 |
| Jarred Cosart | SDG | 0.294 | 0.308 | 0.014 | 53.8% | 0.192 | 14.3% | 85.3% | 89.3 | 7.70% | 5.60% | 26 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.296 | 0.331 | 0.035 | 54.0% | 0.167 | 2.7% | 82.1% | 86.5 | 3.90% | 2.50% | 129 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.285 | 0.316 | 0.031 | 37.8% | 0.153 | 10.9% | 80.4% | 86.2 | 5.10% | 3.40% | 98 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.306 | 0.328 | 0.022 | 24.8% | 0.271 | 14.1% | 87.4% | 88.6 | 10.90% | 8.60% | 137 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.269 | 0.095 | -0.174 | 33.3% | 0.048 | 15.4% | 85.0% | 87.2 | 4.80% | 3.70% | 21 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.279 | 0.283 | 0.004 | 32.9% | 0.229 | 8.1% | 86.6% | 85.6 | 5.60% | 4.00% | 143 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.306 | 0.349 | 0.043 | 58.7% | 0.187 | 5.7% | 90.5% | 87.5 | 7.10% | 5.20% | 156 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.278 | 0.347 | 0.069 | 45.9% | 0.267 | 10.0% | 91.6% | 86.5 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 150 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.291 | 0.419 | 0.128 | 37.5% | 0.25 | 5.6% | 89.3% | 91 | 12.50% | 8.60% | 48 |
| Sam Gaviglio | SEA | 0.288 | 0.333 | 0.045 | 25.0% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.277 | 0.259 | -0.018 | 56.1% | 0.14 | 0.0% | 89.0% | 89.7 | 5.30% | 4.20% | 57 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.291 | 0.277 | -0.014 | 46.9% | 0.215 | 12.2% | 85.6% | 86.2 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 134 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.283 | 0.266 | -0.017 | 56.7% | 0.224 | 3.6% | 91.5% | 85.5 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 137 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.306 | 0.376 | 0.07 | 41.7% | 0.219 | 11.4% | 87.5% | 85.8 | 6.10% | 3.90% | 98 |
| Hector Velazquez | BOS | 0.304 | ||||||||||
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.320 | 0.359 | 0.039 | 40.2% | 0.235 | 10.4% | 90.5% | 86.4 | 7.40% | 5.30% | 135 |
Jordan Montgomery actually profiles for a low BABIP.
Marcus Stroman does not and has a career mark of .308, but should still see at least some regression.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Marcus Stroman (1) has been inconsistent from a workload and strikeout standpoint, but generates lots of ground balls and should be fine from a run prevention standpoint. I lied in the introduction when I said none of today’s starters would make the cut on most other days. He would, but only because Freeman is out. That was originally written with uncertainty on that situation, but the assumption that he would play just to make things simpler. He’s still the top overall arm on this slate either way of course, but probably deserves his own tier now.
Jordan Montgomery has the third highest strikeout rate on the slate, but also the highest SwStr% of any pitcher on any slate today. He’s not as cheap as I expected, but would appear to be a good fit for this park as a fly ball pitcher who doesn’t allow much hard contact against an offense with little power.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window