Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 11th
Players who opted to go for low cost upside of Tyler Glasnow were punished last night as the guy who couldn’t find the plate showed up. It was pretty much the worst case scenario there. Among the top two arms, once ownership projections came out here, Jon Lester became the more interesting arm, projecting to be owned in just 10-15% of lineups and he paid off with a better performance than Jacob deGrom, who struggled early and under-whelmed, but might not have torpedoes your lineup.
Today, we list all 12 games, discussing an ideally sized 10-game night slate. We’re mid-rotation again, so it starts to get a bit more difficult, but there are still some interesting arms out there, including one I may not have been aggressive enough on last time.
Just a reminder that we’re using 2017 stats for everything except DRA, Statcast numbers and Team Defense. Please consider sample size for the next couple of weeks.
The good news is it does look like Seamheads has updated their three year Park Factors and I hope to get to that tonight, but will definitely have that updated for Friday’s article if not. That also makes this a good time to mention that there will be no article on Thursday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -3.1 | 3.87 | 5. | 40.0% | 1.37 | 3.87 | SDG | 69 | 116 | 97 | |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -4.3 | 4.8 | 5.45 | 31.9% | 0.9 | 4.47 | 5.19 | HOU | 48 | 82 | 85 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | -0.9 | 4.22 | 5.98 | 42.1% | 1 | 4.75 | 4.17 | FLA | 91 | 88 | |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 5.4 | 3.08 | 5.98 | 49.4% | 1.03 | 3.57 | 2.49 | CHW | 87 | 108 | |
| Clay Buchholz | PHI | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.85 | 43.7% | 1.02 | 5.71 | 5.44 | NYM | 64 | 45 | 115 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 1.9 | 3.71 | 6.47 | 48.6% | 0.92 | 3.65 | 4.14 | ANA | 191 | 86 | 104 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 2.8 | 4.71 | 5.75 | 32.9% | 1 | 5.2 | 7.68 | ATL | 85 | 85 | 105 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 4.1 | 3.77 | 5.49 | 44.8% | 1.07 | 3.57 | BAL | 88 | 95 | ||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -3.2 | 4.11 | 5.21 | 35.6% | 1.07 | 4.87 | 2.04 | BOS | 99 | 83 | 58 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 1.1 | 3.84 | 5.61 | 50.7% | 1.02 | 3.36 | 2.3 | STL | 65 | 64 | 129 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | -5.8 | 4.77 | 5.52 | 32.1% | 1.01 | 5.54 | 4.39 | DET | 129 | 155 | 140 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 2.2 | 4.02 | 5.83 | 41.8% | 1.02 | 3.67 | 1.83 | MIL | 83 | 103 | |
| James Shields | CHW | 3.3 | 4.43 | 5.8 | 42.2% | 1.03 | 5.69 | 6.49 | CLE | 82 | 94 | |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | -2.8 | 3.6 | 5.84 | 52.8% | 0.95 | 3.42 | 3.52 | CIN | 110 | 107 | 112 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.8 | 4.09 | 6.5 | 42.9% | 0.89 | 3.75 | 2.36 | ARI | 18 | 136 | 106 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | -5.9 | 5.17 | 5.89 | 31.6% | 1.37 | 6.14 | 6.3 | COL | 65 | 82 | 73 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 4.2 | 4.14 | 5.65 | 43.2% | 0.9 | 4.24 | 6.3 | SEA | 161 | 75 | 124 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -5.3 | 4.06 | 5.62 | 44.9% | 1.02 | 3.68 | WAS | 149 | 120 | 91 | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -5.1 | 4.59 | 4.85 | 36.0% | 1.01 | 5.04 | 7.52 | MIN | 91 | 113 | 92 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 1.3 | 3.63 | 6.13 | 43.8% | 1.02 | 4.22 | 3.59 | PHI | 133 | 117 | 75 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -6.1 | 3.77 | 5.49 | 44.7% | 0.89 | 3.38 | 3.96 | SFO | 76 | 97 | 155 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 0.4 | 4.21 | 3. | 30.0% | 0.95 | 4.21 | PIT | 102 | 87 | 77 | |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 6.5 | 4.41 | 5. | 39.9% | 0.92 | 3.82 | 5.18 | TEX | 100 | 85 | |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -7.2 | 4.57 | 5.44 | 51.4% | 1.02 | 4.22 | 2.18 | TOR | 54 | 80 |
Bartolo Colon generated an 8.8 SwStr% and struck out six of 21 Mets. He generated just one ground ball and induced three pop ups, while topping out at 94 mph on his fastball. His career high SwStr rate is 8.7%, done 14 years ago. Expect none of this to continue for very long. He’s not here because of what he did in his first start, although not getting bombed helped. The Marlines have struck out 23.5% against RHP so far.
Cole Hamels walked one and hit one of 24 Cleveland batters in his season debut, striking out just four. That’s not really a rare occurrence, as he struck out exactly four in 25% of his 32 starts last season. He’s pretty much feast or famine these days, but it might be a chance we have to take on a day like today. The good news is that he pitched into the seventh inning 18 times last year. Unfortunately, he faces a predominantly RH, contact prone Angels’ offense, though they should strike out a bit more this year.
Dylan Bundy dominated the Blue Jays in his first start, striking out eight of 25 batters faced (17.2 SwStr%). I mentioned the potential for optimism, but opted against him in a tough spot to open the season. Perhaps a more aggressive approach was warranted because his new slider was on full display in his first start and was so good, tracking systems were picking it up as a changeup. If this allows him to get through the order a third time reasonably intact, something he struggled with last year, great things may be on the horizon. He’s not in an easier spot in Boston tonight, but the Red Sox are a bit banged up at the moment and are just coming off a team wide flu epidemic.
Gio Gonzalez had everything working in his first start against the Marlins. He struck out seven, generated ground balls (53%), and even his lone walk was intentional, though he did hit a batter. There was some concern about his velocity being down a bit (which means it may have been down a lot considering the new measuring system), but it didn’t affect the bottom line. The Cardinals have struggled against LHP the last few seasons and aren’t off to a good start against them this year.
J.A. Happ struck out nine of 26 Orioles in his first start with a 10.1 SwStr%. He has some regression coming in an 80% strand rate from last season, but is in a high strikeout spot tonight. The Brewers have struck out in 30% of 70 PAs against LHP so far, but have also made hard contact on 37.2% of contact. That’s probably who they’re going to be this season and have a chance to be interesting in these spots with some RH power.
Jameson Taillon, struck out six of 26 Red Sox in seven shutout innings in his season debut, though he generated just a 7.4 SwStr%. A frightening 64.7% of contact was hit hard (33.2% last year), but 58.8% of it was on the ground. If he, like other Pittsburgh pitchers, embraces the new team philosophy of pitching up more often this season (and they should in that park), his SwStr rate should increase this year. The stuff is certainly there. Hard contact is less concerning at home against the Reds, who are off to a solid start against RHP, but don’t project to continue at this pace.
Jeff Samardzija allowed three HRs in Arizona to start the new campaign. He should fare much better at home and did have a 14.4 SwStr% on his way to nine strikeouts. Although park fun factors have not yet been updated, consider that Arizona has an updated 1.13 run factor against 0.93 in San Francisco. He should fare better in the rematch.
Joe Musgrove got off to a rough start, walking more Mariners (three) than he struck out (two). Though he had a 6.3 BB% at the major league level, he ran through the minors without a walk rate above 4% at any level after rookie ball. Perhaps with marginal stuff, he feels the need to nibble more than attack at the major league level and we shouldn’t expect the minor league numbers to translate, but he may challenge a bit more in a more favorable park for the rematch in Seattle.
Robbie Ray generated 12 swings and misses, resulting in six strikeouts against the Giants in Arizona, quite the accomplishment against that lineup, though the old hard contact problem was once again an issue (46.2 Hard%). It should be less of an issue with a significant park upgrade, where the same type of underlying performance should generate stronger overall results.
Wily Peralta shut down the Rockies without a run through five innings, striking out five in his first start. Written here:
“He did tick up a bit more after missing July leading to some interesting numbers underneath the hood, including an 11.0 SwStr% over his last 10 starts, which led to a league average strikeout rate (20.3%) and a 2.92 ERA (but estimators a bit higher – 81.7 LOB%).”
The velocity was up two mph overall from last season (which probably means closer to 1 – 1.5), though he did generate just a 7.8 SwStr%. However, eight of 11 batted balls were on the ground with hard contact only three times. He has a tougher assignment in Toronto tonight, but does have a career 58.1 GB% against RHBs. If he can combine that with anything close to league average swings and misses, he could do more than survive this encounter.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Dan Straily (.239 – 81.2% – 12) did not strike out any of the 17 Nationals he faced in his Miami debut. His BABIP and LOB% from last season are destined for Regression City in 2017.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Drew Pomeranz had his spring interrupted by a forearm issue (which is sometimes a precursor to your Tommy John parts going bad), so I’d expect a lower pitch count tonight. Upon looking for more information regarding said injury, I stumbled on this amazingly well put together profile on SonsofSamHorn.com that I don’t have time to read right now, but seems like it would be incredibly useful for those considering him today or in the future. The Orioles did really struggle against LHP last season.
Tyler Skaggs struggled in his first start against the A’s, generating just two ground balls and down more than a mile per hour on his fastball, which potentially means closer to two mph, though he did generated nine swinging strikes. He has a bit of a control issue last year in 10 starts and walked three more in his first start. While I don’t think Texas is very intimidating in this comfortable pitching environment, I’m not really sold on him being an above average arm either.
Matt Harvey had favorable numbers in his first start against the Braves (though Matt Kemp torched him twice) due to throwing strikes (55 of 77 pitches), but I’m not so sure about the raw stuff (7.8 SwStr%). His velocity was stable with last year and he certainly helped himself by not walking anyone, so he could have similar results against a similarly poor offense and one that may even have a bit more swing and miss in its game, but the stuff really doesn’t look better than average yet.
Lance Lynn was more than competent in return from TJS, holding the Cubs to two runs into the sixth inning, striking out four without a walk. His velocity was intact, but he generated just five swinging strikes in 98 pitches. Washington has started strong with the bats and Lynn has historically had a problem with LHBs (.340 wOBA career), especially on the road, where he’s allowed at least a .327 wOBA to them in each season and hasn’t exceeded a 10 K-BB% against them in a full season. The top half of the order could do some damage.
Clay Buchholz missed bats on just three of 77 pitches, while getting spanked by the Reds in his NL debut. This, coming off a season generating just a 6.5 K-BB%.
Rookie Davis does not appear major league ready with inconsistent secondary offerings.
Jered Weaver – Oh, boy. Are the Padres really going to do this to this guy? Is it going to even be possible to fade Coors bats tonight?
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 30.0% | 15.0% | Home | L14 Days | 30.0% | 15.0% | ||
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.2% | Home | 23.9% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 13.0% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 16.3% | 3.5% | Road | 12.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.3% | 5.8% | Home | 22.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 4.6% |
| Clay Buchholz | Phillies | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.5% | Home | 12.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.9% | 7.9% | Road | 23.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 4.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.4% | Home | 20.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.3% | 9.1% | Home | 26.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.4% | Road | 22.3% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 0.0% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.4% | 8.3% | Home | 25.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 4.0% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.6% | Road | 17.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.8% | Home | 23.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.7% | 9.9% | Road | 12.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.5% | 4.5% | Home | 20.5% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.5% | 5.9% | Home | 21.7% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 8.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.5% | 6.1% | Road | 11.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 12.5% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.8% | Road | 15.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 13.6% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.6% | 9.1% | Road | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% | ||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.8% | Home | 18.1% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 23.5% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 22.4% | 5.3% | Road | 19.2% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.5% | 9.2% | Road | 30.0% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 13.6% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 25.0% | 12.5% | Road | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 22.6% | 10.7% | Home | 28.4% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 12.5% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.2% | 7.9% | Road | 14.7% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 24.9% | 6.4% | RH | 20.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.0% |
| Astros | Road | 28.6% | 8.6% | LH | 18.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.5% | 5.3% |
| Marlins | Home | RH | 23.5% | 6.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 7.4% | ||
| White Sox | Road | RH | 22.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.8% | ||
| Mets | Road | 22.9% | 14.3% | RH | 26.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Home | 17.7% | 8.8% | LH | 24.0% | 6.0% | L7Days | 14.4% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 21.2% | 5.8% | RH | 21.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.8% |
| Orioles | Road | LH | 23.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.3% | ||
| Red Sox | Home | 21.3% | 10.0% | RH | 18.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 15.4% | 0.0% | LH | 23.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 28.8% | 11.5% | LH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% |
| Brewers | Road | LH | 30.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 23.7% | 8.5% | ||
| Indians | Home | RH | 19.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% | ||
| Reds | Road | 14.9% | 9.1% | RH | 17.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 5.4% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 15.6% | 0.0% | RH | 22.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Rockies | Home | 26.8% | 4.3% | RH | 21.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| Mariners | Home | 18.4% | 7.9% | RH | 23.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.0% | 11.8% | RH | 23.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 11.3% |
| Twins | Road | 25.0% | 4.6% | LH | 22.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.8% | 11.3% | RH | 24.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 23.4% | 5.9% |
| Giants | Home | 13.9% | 11.1% | LH | 20.2% | 11.0% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 15.7% | 10.5% | RH | 12.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.8% | 8.1% |
| Rangers | Road | LH | 34.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.1% | ||
| Blue Jays | Home | RH | 23.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 20.2% | 13.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | 2017 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | Home | L14 Days | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% | |||
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 36.2% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 2017 | 26.7% | 25.0% | 6.7% | Home | 40.4% | 16.7% | 26.3% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 25.0% | 6.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.4% | 10.9% | 15.5% | 2017 | 35.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% | Road | 36.7% | 10.9% | 23.0% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 9.1% | 7.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 31.5% | 15.1% | 14.4% | 2017 | 30.8% | 25.0% | 0.0% | Home | 39.9% | 21.0% | 25.7% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 2017 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 10.5% | Home | 29.5% | 13.2% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | 10.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 22.2% | Road | 31.0% | 11.6% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 22.2% |
| Dan Straily | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.9% | 11.9% | 16.6% | 2017 | 33.3% | 14.3% | 13.3% | Home | 33.3% | 9.5% | 20.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 13.3% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2017 | Home | 33.5% | 18.1% | 14.8% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.7% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 2017 | 23.5% | 0.0% | -5.9% | Road | 28.9% | 14.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | -5.9% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 2017 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% | Home | 33.0% | 13.9% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Hector Santiago | Twins | L2 Years | 35.4% | 11.0% | 18.8% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 15.4% | Road | 34.2% | 9.0% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 15.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.5% | 10.6% | 13.7% | 2017 | 35.3% | 28.6% | 29.4% | Home | 32.5% | 10.3% | 15.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 28.6% | 29.4% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.7% | 17.5% | 17.0% | 2017 | 23.1% | 11.1% | 15.4% | Road | 35.3% | 15.9% | 19.3% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.1% | 15.4% |
| Jameson Taillon | Pirates | L2 Years | 34.9% | 15.1% | 17.3% | 2017 | 64.7% | 0.0% | 41.2% | Home | 34.9% | 11.8% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 64.7% | 0.0% | 41.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.5% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 2017 | 42.9% | 60.0% | 35.8% | Home | 33.7% | 8.8% | 15.7% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 60.0% | 35.8% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 2017 | 38.9% | 28.6% | 16.7% | Road | 36.0% | 13.5% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 28.6% | 16.7% |
| Joe Musgrove | Astros | L2 Years | 34.2% | 13.9% | 16.1% | 2017 | 29.4% | 14.3% | 11.7% | Road | 37.1% | 26.9% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 14.3% | 11.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.2% | 7.7% | 10.2% | 2017 | 23.5% | 0.0% | 17.6% | Road | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | 17.6% | |||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 15.2% | 14.4% | 2017 | 54.6% | 33.3% | 36.4% | Home | 32.9% | 13.6% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 54.6% | 33.3% | 36.4% |
| Matt Harvey | Mets | L2 Years | 28.2% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 2017 | 27.8% | 25.0% | -5.5% | Road | 30.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 25.0% | -5.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.0% | 12.0% | 20.5% | 2017 | 46.2% | 20.0% | 38.5% | Road | 34.7% | 16.0% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 46.2% | 20.0% | 38.5% |
| Rookie Davis | Reds | L2 Years | 30.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | Road | L14 Days | 30.0% | 40.0% | 20.0% | |||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 32.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 2017 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 6.2% | Home | 31.0% | 0.0% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | 6.2% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.0% | 15.4% | 15.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 27.7% | 14.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 35.3% | 12.5% | 18.5% | RH | 32.1% | 16.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.3% | 6.0% |
| Astros | Road | 45.5% | 0.0% | 27.3% | LH | 25.2% | 10.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.7% | 8.5% |
| Marlins | Home | RH | 33.9% | 8.3% | 15.3% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.0% | 11.9% | |||
| White Sox | Road | RH | 31.1% | 9.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.1% | 13.8% | 5.1% | |||
| Mets | Road | 18.2% | 12.5% | 9.1% | RH | 25.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 31.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% |
| Angels | Home | 28.9% | 26.1% | 9.6% | LH | 29.4% | 0.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 25.3% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Braves | Road | 26.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | RH | 28.5% | 8.2% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.2% | 15.7% | 7.7% |
| Orioles | Road | LH | 28.6% | 16.7% | 16.7% | L7Days | 38.5% | 14.3% | 16.7% | |||
| Red Sox | Home | 52.7% | 15.4% | 40.0% | RH | 52.1% | 4.7% | 36.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 7.5% | 6.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 24.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% | LH | 30.8% | 0.0% | 18.0% | L7Days | 29.1% | 14.5% | 13.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 53.7% | 16.7% | 42.7% | LH | 45.1% | 24.0% | 35.3% | L7Days | 32.4% | 19.0% | 15.8% |
| Brewers | Road | LH | 37.2% | 10.0% | 13.9% | L7Days | 26.4% | 20.0% | 5.0% | |||
| Indians | Home | RH | 48.0% | 10.8% | 37.2% | L7Days | 33.8% | 6.3% | 14.1% | |||
| Reds | Road | 22.6% | 15.9% | -3.5% | RH | 25.7% | 10.2% | 4.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 13.1% | 3.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 42.3% | 7.7% | 26.9% | RH | 38.3% | 14.9% | 27.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 21.1% | 18.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 29.5% | 21.2% | 8.4% | RH | 27.0% | 12.2% | 6.6% | L7Days | 33.1% | 4.8% | 15.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.6% | 0.0% | 3.7% | RH | 20.4% | 7.5% | -1.1% | L7Days | 30.3% | 17.7% | 4.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.9% | 14.3% | 15.1% | RH | 31.1% | 13.8% | 15.5% | L7Days | 35.1% | 12.1% | 16.6% |
| Twins | Road | 30.7% | 11.1% | 18.7% | LH | 30.4% | 10.3% | 15.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.6% | 14.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 26.9% | 12.2% | 4.7% | RH | 25.8% | 13.7% | 4.7% | L7Days | 31.6% | 6.3% | 10.9% |
| Giants | Home | 23.1% | 0.0% | 7.7% | LH | 32.0% | 19.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 27.7% | 9.6% | 10.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 27.0% | 8.3% | 5.4% | RH | 31.4% | 6.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.2% | 10.1% |
| Rangers | Road | LH | 31.8% | 22.2% | 4.5% | L7Days | 34.9% | 10.4% | 15.2% | |||
| Blue Jays | Home | RH | 34.4% | 6.1% | 13.0% | L7Days | 26.3% | 6.7% | 3.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 30.0% | 7.5% | 4.00 | 30.0% | 7.5% | 4.00 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 17.4% | 9.9% | 1.76 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 1.76 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 28.6% | 8.8% | 3.25 | 28.6% | 8.8% | 3.25 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 31.8% | 15.4% | 2.06 | 31.8% | 15.4% | 2.06 |
| Clay Buchholz | PHI | 12.5% | 3.9% | 3.21 | 12.5% | 3.9% | 3.21 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 16.7% | 8.8% | 1.90 | 16.7% | 8.8% | 1.90 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 0.0% | 6.0% | 0.00 | 0.0% | 6.0% | 0.00 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | ||||||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 32.0% | 17.2% | 1.86 | 32.0% | 17.2% | 1.86 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 28.0% | 10.0% | 2.80 | 28.0% | 10.0% | 2.80 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 20.0% | 14.8% | 1.35 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 1.35 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 34.6% | 10.1% | 3.43 | 34.6% | 10.1% | 3.43 |
| James Shields | CHW | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.26 | 21.7% | 9.6% | 2.26 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 23.1% | 7.4% | 3.12 | 23.1% | 7.4% | 3.12 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 36.0% | 14.4% | 2.50 | 36.0% | 14.4% | 2.50 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.46 | 8.3% | 2.4% | 3.46 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 9.1% | 7.1% | 1.28 | 9.1% | 7.1% | 1.28 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 18.2% | 5.1% | 3.57 | 18.2% | 5.1% | 3.57 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 11.8% | 11.3% | 1.04 | 11.8% | 11.3% | 1.04 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 18.2% | 7.8% | 2.33 | 18.2% | 7.8% | 2.33 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 27.3% | 12.1% | 2.26 | 27.3% | 12.1% | 2.26 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 25.0% | 8.1% | 3.09 | 25.0% | 8.1% | 3.09 |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 20.8% | 10.1% | 2.06 | 20.8% | 10.1% | 2.06 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 27.8% | 7.8% | 3.56 | 27.8% | 7.8% | 3.56 |
Whereas yesterday, half the board had a 12+ SwStr% in their first start, we see less domination in the middle of most rotations and even less among the night portion of pitchers. Look at how Dylan Bundy and his 17.2 SwStr% stand out though. Batters swung through something like 40% of thrown sliders.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 3 | 3 | ||
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 3.6 | 5.19 | 1.59 | 6.39 | 2.79 | 9 | 5.4 | 5.25 | 1.65 | 3.6 | 5.19 | 1.59 | 6.39 | 2.79 | 9 | 5.4 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 1.5 | 4.17 | 2.67 | 4.46 | 2.96 | 3.66 | 2.16 | 4.96 | 3.46 | 1.5 | 4.17 | 2.67 | 4.46 | 2.96 | 3.66 | 2.16 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.18 | 2.46 | -0.72 | 2.73 | -0.45 | 3.88 | 0.7 | 3.13 | -0.05 | 3.18 | 2.49 | -0.69 | 2.73 | -0.45 | 3.88 | 0.7 |
| Clay Buchholz | PHI | 7.2 | 5.44 | -1.76 | 5.91 | -1.29 | 3 | -4.2 | 4.48 | -2.72 | 7.2 | 5.44 | -1.76 | 5.91 | -1.29 | 3 | -4.2 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 4.5 | 4.14 | -0.36 | 4.55 | 0.05 | 4.83 | 0.33 | 3.48 | -1.02 | 4.5 | 4.14 | -0.36 | 4.55 | 0.05 | 4.83 | 0.33 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 13.5 | 7.65 | -5.85 | 8.2 | -5.3 | 8.7 | -4.8 | 4.59 | -8.91 | 13.5 | 7.68 | -5.82 | 8.2 | -5.3 | 8.7 | -4.8 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.47 | |||||||||||||||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 1.29 | 2.04 | 0.75 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 0.71 | -0.58 | 4.07 | 2.78 | 1.29 | 2.04 | 0.75 | 2.1 | 0.81 | 0.71 | -0.58 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 3.97 | 3.97 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 1.8 | 4.39 | 2.59 | 5.14 | 3.34 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 5.60 | 3.80 | 1.8 | 4.39 | 2.59 | 5.14 | 3.34 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.86 | 1.83 | -2.03 | 2.04 | -1.82 | 4.14 | 0.28 | 4.26 | 0.40 | 3.86 | 1.83 | -2.03 | 2.04 | -1.82 | 4.14 | 0.28 |
| James Shields | CHW | 1.69 | 6.48 | 4.79 | 6.67 | 4.98 | 6.37 | 4.68 | 6.14 | 4.45 | 1.69 | 6.49 | 4.8 | 6.67 | 4.98 | 6.37 | 4.68 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.57 | 2.57 | 3.67 | 3.67 | 0 | 3.52 | 3.52 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 2.57 | 2.57 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 10.13 | 2.34 | -7.79 | 2.26 | -7.87 | 8.06 | -2.07 | 3.73 | -6.40 | 10.13 | 2.36 | -7.77 | 2.26 | -7.87 | 8.06 | -2.07 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 7.2 | 6.3 | -0.9 | 6.86 | -0.34 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 7.13 | -0.07 | 7.2 | 6.3 | -0.9 | 6.86 | -0.34 | 9.8 | 2.6 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 3.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 6.26 | 2.66 | 6.6 | 3 | 4.23 | 0.63 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 6.26 | 2.66 | 6.6 | 3 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 3.38 | 3.66 | 0.28 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 2.06 | -1.32 | 3.38 | 3.68 | 0.3 | 3.58 | 0.2 | 2.06 | -1.32 | ||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 19.29 | 7.48 | -11.81 | 8.51 | -10.78 | 12 | -7.29 | 5.35 | -13.94 | 19.29 | 7.52 | -11.77 | 8.51 | -10.78 | 12 | -7.29 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 2.7 | 3.56 | 0.86 | 3.74 | 1.04 | 5.7 | 3 | 4.52 | 1.82 | 2.7 | 3.59 | 0.89 | 3.74 | 1.04 | 5.7 | 3 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 4.76 | 3.93 | -0.83 | 3.89 | -0.87 | 4.76 | 0 | 4.08 | -0.68 | 4.76 | 3.96 | -0.8 | 3.89 | -0.87 | 4.76 | 0 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 12 | 4.21 | -7.79 | 5.03 | -6.97 | 11 | -1 | 12 | 4.21 | -7.79 | 5.03 | -6.97 | 11 | -1 | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 8.44 | 5.16 | -3.28 | 5.54 | -2.9 | 5.25 | -3.19 | 4.58 | -3.86 | 8.44 | 5.18 | -3.26 | 5.54 | -2.9 | 5.25 | -3.19 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 2.24 | 2.24 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 0 | 2.18 | 2.18 | 2.24 | 2.24 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Remember that Deserved Run Average (DRA – Baseball Prospectus) is still from last year. Most pitchers should be expected to be separated by a bit from estimators for the first few starts until things should begin lining up around the end of the month.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.335 | 0.200 | -0.135 | 40.0% | 0.3 | 0.0% | 100.0% | ||||
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.286 | 0.231 | -0.055 | 40.0% | 0.067 | 12.5% | 86.2% | 91.2 | 9.60% | 6.00% | 146 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.276 | 0.077 | -0.199 | 7.1% | 0.143 | 27.3% | 73.7% | 90.3 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 565 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.348 | 0.250 | -0.098 | 16.7% | 0.5 | 25.0% | 95.7% | 90.2 | 5.30% | 3.30% | 374 |
| Clay Buchholz | PHI | 0.302 | 0.421 | 0.119 | 26.3% | 0.263 | 11.1% | 100.0% | 88.8 | 7.30% | 4.90% | 395 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.278 | 0.235 | -0.043 | 33.3% | 0.278 | 14.3% | 90.9% | 88 | 6.60% | 4.00% | 519 |
| Dan Straily | FLA | 0.275 | 0.357 | 0.082 | 35.7% | 0.143 | 0.0% | 91.3% | 89.3 | 7.80% | 4.80% | 489 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.287 | 88.6 | 7.40% | 4.10% | 394 | ||||||
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.328 | 0.235 | -0.093 | 29.4% | 0.353 | 0.0% | 74.3% | 88.5 | 6.40% | 3.60% | 266 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.333 | 0.438 | 0.105 | 53.3% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 89.2 | 6.00% | 3.50% | 453 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | 0.220 | 0.308 | 0.088 | 38.5% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 69.2% | 90.2 | 10.20% | 6.20% | 479 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.304 | 0.200 | -0.104 | 29.4% | 0.294 | 0.0% | 90.3% | 90 | 7.20% | 4.60% | 511 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.224 | 0.083 | -0.141 | 15.4% | 0.154 | 0.0% | 90.3% | 89 | 7.90% | 5.10% | 532 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | 0.303 | 0.294 | -0.009 | 58.8% | 0.294 | 0.0% | 89.3% | 89.4 | 4.70% | 2.90% | 256 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.291 | 0.455 | 0.164 | 42.9% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 75.0% | 89.3 | 6.20% | 4.00% | 533 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.257 | 0.188 | -0.069 | 33.3% | 0.278 | 14.3% | 95.5% | 88.7 | 7.50% | 5.20% | 531 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | 0.249 | 0.250 | 0.001 | 41.2% | 0.176 | 14.3% | 92.6% | 89.6 | 6.10% | 3.50% | 147 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.319 | 0.294 | -0.025 | 47.1% | 0.235 | 0.0% | 89.2% | ||||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.297 | 0.400 | 0.103 | 50.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 76.9% | 88.2 | 7.30% | 4.90% | 275 |
| Matt Harvey | NYM | 0.307 | 0.063 | -0.244 | 38.9% | 0.167 | 0.0% | 94.3% | 88.7 | 4.50% | 3.00% | 265 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.282 | 0.167 | -0.115 | 46.2% | 0.154 | 20.0% | 83.3% | 90.7 | 8.10% | 4.40% | 419 |
| Rookie Davis | CIN | 0.250 | 0.375 | 0.125 | 30.0% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 83.3% | ||||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.242 | 0.267 | 0.025 | 12.5% | 0.313 | 0.0% | 85.0% | 88.7 | 9.80% | 5.00% | 112 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.324 | 0.250 | -0.074 | 72.7% | 0.091 | 0.0% | 95.2% | 89.6 | 7.70% | 5.10% | 362 |
This is just a guess, but the guys with the sub-.100 BABIP through their first start may not hold that all year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Dylan Bundy (1) costs right around $7K on either site and has top of the board upside tonight. The Boston lineup is still not an easy assignment, but is looking a bit less intimidating right now.
Value Tier Two
Jameson Taillon (2) is a high upside arm, who has occasionally had issues with hard contact. I’m looking for more in the way of missing bats this season and am less concerned with contact issues at home. It’s nice to see him throw 95 pitches in his first start, a mark he only exceeded in three of 18 major league starts last year (all in August).
Value Tier Three
Wily Peralta didn’t maintain the bat missing skills shown late in 2016 through his first start, but the velocity spike was sustained. Toronto is an imposing place to pitch, but still a predominantly RH lineup, against which side he has had a dominant ground ball rate in his career. If he can combine that with anything close to league average swing and miss stuff, he may be able to pay off his low price tag. While I wasn’t aggressive enough with Bundy last time out, let’s hope I’m not being too aggressive with the speculation here.
Jeff Samardzija (3) is probably only an average pitcher in a neutral environment, but that should play up in a great park, especially facing an offense that may be over-rated by frequently hitting in a similarly great offensive environment.
Robbie Ray (4) costs just $7.5K on FanDuel, where I’d bump him up a tier. The Giants can be a challenge for strikeout pitchers, but he’s got room to spare in what’s become one of the elite strikeout rates in the game and certainly shouldn’t suffer from the park shift. He’s the second costliest pitcher on DraftKings though, where I might even bump him down a tier. So, really he’s here in Tier Three, but not really a Tier Three pitcher for me on either site.
J.A. Happ is a bit over-rated at this point, but should pile up the strikeouts for the second straight start tonight at a reasonable cost. The Brewers could also take him deep a time or two here though.
Gio Gonzalez is a usable arm in a decent spot. You know the risk that comes with him by now though.
Cole Hamels is the most expensive pitcher today by a decent margin. That’s the sign of a potentially difficult day. He’s not to be trusted and is facing an offense that is not prone to strikeouts, but perhaps he’ll at least give us the length we’re looking for, as he’s in a virtual tie for the most innings per start over the last two years among today’s starters.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Joe Musgrove shouldn’t continue to have control issues, though perhaps he was able to challenge hitters more often with better results in the minors. I don’t know if we should expect the same 20 K-BB% in the majors, the 15.2% mark he generated last year would be fine at this price with a park upgrade.
Bartolo Colon is probably going to go back to being a competent pitch to contact guy, who is much better in real life than DFS. He costs just $6.6K on DraftKings today, which makes him usable as an SP2 among today’s cast. I’d opt to look elsewhere on FanDuel.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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