Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, April 17th
Sixteen MLB games are scheduled to be played on Wednesday, but since the template only fits 30 pitchers the first game of the double-header is omitted because that’s included in yesterday’s article and off the main slate today. All pitchers for the remaining 15 games are listed with notes focusing on the 12 game main slate. With the double-header a mid-afternoon start, kudos to both sites for not including the second game on the main slate either, as lineups may not be available before lock.
Three weeks into the season, everything below is entirely comprised of 2018 stats where they are supposed to be, unless multi-year stats are being used. The exceptions are DRA, which Baseball Prospectus has not calculated for 2018 yet and Statcast Home/Away xwOBA, which combines last season with this one right now.
The bad news is that since Baseball Savant has decided to list “last name, fist name” on their leaderboards now, we’ve lost Exit Velocity and Barrels information below. I’m going to work on getting those back, but may need someone more proficient in excel.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 2.2 | 4.38 | 5.7 | 45.9% | 1.01 | 4.71 | 4.30 | Cubs | 126 | 102 | 126 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.1 | 3.40 | 5.8 | 52.8% | 0.91 | 3.36 | 2.62 | Padres | 100 | 118 | 102 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 5.1 | 5.15 | 5.5 | 47.8% | 1.07 | 4.96 | 4.57 | Tigers | 88 | 74 | 68 |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | 4.91 | 5.5 | 31.5% | 0.92 | 4.89 | Astros | 107 | 121 | 76 | ||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | -1.3 | 5.73 | 4.8 | 52.0% | 0.91 | 5.14 | 7.81 | Dodgers | 75 | 96 | 129 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 16.9 | 4.51 | 5.6 | 50.5% | 0.98 | 5.40 | 4.98 | Pirates | 116 | 110 | 96 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 27 | 3.02 | 6.9 | 44.6% | 1.05 | 2.85 | 2.16 | Twins | 101 | 105 | 119 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | -3.4 | 3.91 | 6.1 | 37.4% | 1.04 | 4.70 | 4.95 | Blue Jays | 108 | 122 | 79 |
| David Price | Red Sox | -3.7 | 3.80 | 6.4 | 42.5% | 0.93 | 4.64 | 5.53 | Angels | 130 | 134 | 155 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | -5.2 | 4.66 | 5.2 | 48.2% | 1.07 | 4.20 | 5.25 | Orioles | 86 | 111 | 65 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -16.3 | 4.16 | 5.9 | 46.4% | 0.92 | 4.31 | 3.83 | Mets | 121 | 57 | 104 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | -12.6 | 4.09 | 5.9 | 44.9% | 1.04 | 3.81 | 2.31 | Royals | 39 | 82 | 78 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.1 | 4.59 | 5.4 | 34.0% | 1.05 | 4.84 | 6.47 | Indians | 59 | 66 | 118 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | -1.6 | 4.33 | 6.0 | 42.7% | 1.03 | 5.12 | 4.74 | Yankees | 136 | 149 | 147 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 3.2 | 4.02 | 6.4 | 45.6% | 1.17 | 4.05 | 6.07 | Diamondbacks | 116 | 98 | 110 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | -4.9 | 4.72 | 5.5 | 41.2% | 1.02 | 5.19 | 4.18 | Reds | 82 | 77 | 72 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | -23.8 | 3.49 | 5.5 | 60.0% | 0.92 | 3.25 | 4.62 | Mariners | 130 | 114 | 127 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 1.4 | 3.62 | 6.2 | 47.9% | 1.03 | 2.84 | 3.70 | Marlins | 26 | 65 | 68 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | -7.1 | 4.67 | 5.7 | 37.5% | 0.92 | 5.47 | 7.48 | Rays | 84 | 97 | 108 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | -5.2 | 5.05 | 5.8 | 38.1% | 0.96 | 6.01 | 5.60 | Athletics | 110 | 124 | 131 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 10.5 | 4.32 | 5.5 | 40.4% | 0.99 | 4.13 | 3.62 | Phillies | 77 | 86 | 86 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | -0.1 | 4.13 | 5.1 | 43.8% | 0.99 | 4.80 | 1.81 | Braves | 120 | 110 | 111 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 11.2 | 4.10 | 5.7 | 52.4% | 1.17 | 3.48 | 1.39 | Giants | 70 | 81 | 92 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | -2.5 | 4.89 | 5.4 | 50.8% | 1.02 | 4.29 | 5.73 | Brewers | 65 | 83 | 87 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 5.7 | 1.73 | 6.5 | 40.0% | 0.93 | 0.70 | 0.86 | Red Sox | 93 | 128 | 145 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.9 | 4.24 | 5.1 | 56.1% | 0.96 | 3.55 | White Sox | 117 | 105 | 56 | |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 2.6 | 4.65 | 5.5 | 47.3% | 0.98 | 4.43 | 3.96 | Rockies | 85 | 50 | 51 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 5 | 4.73 | 5.6 | 57.3% | 1.01 | 4.02 | 4.65 | Cardinals | 127 | 109 | 130 |
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | -2 | 3.04 | 5.1 | 50.0% | 0.92 | 5.32 | 2.67 | Rangers | 84 | 85 | 77 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 3.1 | 4.51 | 5.2 | 48.0% | 0.92 | 4.43 | 2.57 | Nationals | 129 | 111 | 94 |
Alex Wood has struck out five in each of his starts without a walk yet this season. That’s where the similarities end. After eight shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Giants, he allowed three runs in six innings in Arizona before seven runs in 3.2 innings against Oakland. While a 31.8 LOB% is one thing, so is a fastball below 90 mph in each of his last two starts. It’s not nearly all bad news though. The SwStr% remains in line with last season, as does the ground ball rate, while generating a lot of swings outside the zone has allowed him to generate a lot of weak contact. His .207 xwOBA is second best on the board. There’s something interesting concerning him in nearly every table today. The Padres are a little different in that they may have a few left-mashers even without Myers. They’re the same in that they still strike out a lot (23.9 K%, 16.1 HR/FB, 19.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP).
Corey Kluber is pitching in Puerto Rico tonight. Here’s hoping it’s not an extreme run scoring environment, but I’m still going to side with one of the top five arms in the game. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of his three starts and struck out 13 last time out. He’s fantastic even if every table below expects some regression. He’s simply the best pitcher on the board.
Johnny Cueto returns from the DL (ankle) in Arizona. He’s allowed just one run in 13 innings, but struck out just five of 47 batters. The 7 SwStr% is not good, but it’s better than a 10% strikeout rate and it is just two starts. The Arizona lineup is a bit thin right now, especially from the left-hand side. He’s also really the only other guy besides Kluber we can expect to at least pitch into the seventh most times.
Lance McCullers has not gotten more than 16 outs in any of his three outings, though he’s been between 91 and 95 pitches in all three outings. His last time out was particularly troubling, as he walked six and allowed eight runs in Minnesota. I’d lean towards giving him a pass in that park in early April. His velocity is fine. His 14.8 SwStr% would be a career high. Although the hard contact rate (42.9%) is not ideal, it’s really been one bad start. His ground ball rate has been at least 50% in all three starts (62.9% overall). The matchup is marginal. The Mariners are decent, but Seattle is still a pitcher’s park.
Patrick Corbin has been the muthatruckin’ man! He’s struck out 29 of 71 batters with a seventeen point freekin’ nine percent swinging strike rate! He also has a 62.2 GB%. His .239 wOBA is verified by Statcast. The Giants should be better against southpaws this year, but they haven’t been and he just struck out nine of them, though it was his worst start so far (5.1 IP – 3 ER).
Shohei Ohtani had a million speculative articles written about him before he threw his first major league pitch. Then he stunk in March. Then he had a messy inning early in his first start in Oakland. He’s proceeded to dominate over the next 10 innings since that three run home run. He’s struck out 18 of 45 batters with a 23.5 SwStr%. Of course, he’s only faced one team and while both teams can generate a lot of offense, the Red Sox are a completely different sort of animal than the A’s. They have a 16.3 K% vs RHP. The good news is that he gets them at home and it’s not even chasing pitches out of the strike zone that’s caused his success. He’s whiffing them right over the plate.
Yonny Chirinos has not allowed a run in 14.1 innings with 12 strikeouts. The strikeout rate, swinging strike rate, ERA estimators…they’re all decent. The only concern in his profile is a 91.2 Z-Contact%, but it’s otherwise the profile of a league average pitcher and he’s in a great spot (Rangers 25.8 K% vs RHP, 25.9% on the road).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 14.2 HR/FB)
David Price (.220 – 80.9% – 4.3) looked good in his first two games (14 IP – 0 R – 3 BB – 10 K) before a hand injury and the Yankees threw everything off last time out (1.2 IP – 4 ER – 2 BB – 1 K). If he says he’s okay, it’s probably not an injury of concern, but he has a 7.9 SwStr%, .220 BABIP, and .336 xwOBA that’s 88 points above his actual wOBA. The Angels are the hottest offense in baseball (14 K% last seven days) and have punished LHP (6.6 K-BB%, 23 Hard-Soft%).
Trevor Williams (.255 – 91.8% – 5.6) has struck out nine and walked two (49 BF) since walking five Tigers in his first start. He hasn’t generated a SwStr above 7% in any of his three starts and that’s a problem. It’s also a problem that he seems to have not been able to sustain his exceptional contact management from last season (not always a sustainable skill). His hard hit rate is 36.5% and his ground ball rate is down around five points too. A shame, because this is an exceptional matchup.
Chad Bettis (.213 – 93.4% – 10) has a 5.7 K-BB%, is generating neither ground balls, nor weak contact. That may not play too badly in Pittsburgh, but it’s not a profile we want to pay for right now either.
Jake Odorizzi (.250 – 87.4% – 5.6) generates lots of popups and has a great outfield, so the BABIP isn’t even really a concern. If this park in Puerto Rico plays power friendly, he could be in trouble, though his reverse platoon split might actually help him against Cleveland with most of the power coming from the left side.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Gio Gonzalez has questionable control (9.7 BB% this year and career), which often knocks a high priced pitcher out of the game before we’re ready for it. He’s faced exactly 24 batters in each of his three starts and he’s yet to record an out in the seventh inning, although he did so in half his starts last year. The Mets have just 118 PAs against LHP, so take those numbers with a large grain of salt. They have some bats who should be able to handle southpaws (Cespedes, Frazier, Flores). I think $8.5K is probably my limit for him and that’s exactly (or nearly exactly) his price tag tonight.
Zack Wheeler was so bad in March that he was banished to AAA, where he struck out six of 18 batters faced (one walk) in his lone start before being called back up and proceeding to have perhaps his best major league start in Miami (7 IP – 2 H – 1 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 7 K – 24 BF). It’s certainly something you want to believe in, but it was just one start against the Marlins. That he’s walked just two of 42 batters anywhere with 13 strikeouts and a 55 GB% is pretty encouraging at this point. If Rendon and Eaton remain out, he might be worth taking a shot with here for less than $8K. I want to hold back and not be too enthusiastic after essentially two AAA starts though (actual AAA and then the Marlins).
Tyler Chatwood almost looks a bit like Jake Arrieta if you squint hard enough. No, I don’t mean the beard. Let’s just say they have some similar tendencies on the mound. He generates some strikeouts and a lot of ground balls when he’s on, but can also walk the park. He did that in his first outing (six), then struck out seven with one walk, but gave up five runs in his second start. The Cardinals aren’t a bad offense and Wrigley can either be friend or foe depending on the winds. I don’t know what you’re going to get here. It could be a GPP worthy performance, but I certainly can’t say I trust him.
Nick Pivetta had a 24 K% last season, but with just an 8.7 SwStr%. RHBs had a .409 wOBA and 20 HRs (41.5 Hard%) against him. Both his estimators and Statcast suggested he might be better, but he had a long way to go to get to even league average. Since a rough first outing in Atlanta, he’s struck out 16 of 47 batters and now has an 11.4 SwStr% for the season. While I still don’t think he can sustain a strikeout rate near 30%, that’s certainly better than last year. It’s been just 36 PAs and the Reds, Marlins and Braves don’t scream right-handed power, but he’s struck out 33% of RHBs without a walk and a 0.0 Hard-Soft%. He’s facing the Braves again, whom he struggled with first time out (4 IP – 3 ER – 2 BB – 3 K) and whom have a single digit K-BB% vs RHP. I’m more intrigued than I was last year, but this is not an ideal point accumulation spot and I’m not so sure his numbers aren’t playing up against weak competition so far.
Mike Foltynewicz struck out three last time out after it was mentioned here that his early season strikeout rate (15 of first 44 batters) was not sustainable with an 8% SwStr rate and he proceeded to strike out just three Nationals last time out. His 26.9 K% is still very unsustainable. However, the Phillies have a 26.4 K% vs RHP and he’s nearly at a price point where he could be interesting in the right spots, but LHBs still have a career .371 wOBA against him.
Ariel Miranda makes his 2018 debut in a difficult spot.
Trevor Cahill was an Oakland Athletic. Then he wasn’t. Then he was terrible. Then he was a reliever. Then he was surprisingly good. Then he was injured. Now he’s in Oakland again. He’s walked seven of 40 AAA batters faced this year. The White Sox have not been as bad as expected yet.
Matt Moore …wait, let me check…yup, this is working out just like we thought it might. While he does get to return to Tampa Bay against a lineup that is still striking out a ton (27.7% vs LHP) despite jettisoning most of their high fastball problems, he struggled while calling the most pitcher friendly park in baseball home and the Rays will accept free passes. I still like to remind people though that we’re only about five or six years removed from every top prospect list in baseball reading…Harper, Trout, Moore.
Adam Wainwright has a 17.9 HR/FB on the road since last season. His last start was his better or this season’s two despite allowing two HRs at home to the Brewers. He’s continuing to miss few bats after having struck out just seven of 116 batters in the second half last season over a period in which only Alex Wood lost more velocity (2.4 mph) among starters or relievers. If we’re looking for good news, he’s sitting on his 90 mph average from the last few seasons to start this one.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 18.6% | 7.2% | 12.8% | 11.0% | Season | 14.6% | 8.3% | 22.2% | -5.4% | Road | 15.6% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 17.4% | L14Days | 14.6% | 8.3% | 22.2% | -5.4% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 25.5% | 6.0% | 12.4% | 10.0% | Season | 21.4% | 6.3% | 9.1% | Road | 24.6% | 5.9% | 12.5% | 14.9% | L14Days | 23.8% | 11.1% | 21.8% | ||
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | L2 Yrs | 15.4% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 16.4% | Season | 22.5% | 11.3% | 16.7% | 23.9% | Road | 13.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.0% | L14Days | 22.5% | 12.2% | 5.9% | 22.6% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 8.9% | 14.9% | 12.7% | Season | Home | 21.4% | 9.2% | 12.6% | 5.1% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | L2 Yrs | 9.5% | 12.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | Season | 4.6% | 21.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% | Home | 9.6% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 4.9% | L14Days | 4.6% | 21.2% | 11.1% | 12.2% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 16.5% | 7.3% | 13.9% | 13.1% | Season | 17.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 24.5% | Road | 16.3% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 21.3% | L14Days | 17.1% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 24.5% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 30.6% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 7.0% | Season | 33.3% | 4.9% | 12.5% | 18.0% | Road | 30.4% | 4.5% | 18.2% | 15.5% | L14Days | 36.5% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 20.0% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Yrs | 23.7% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 16.5% | Season | 22.1% | 11.8% | 13.0% | 33.3% | Road | 20.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 11.1% | L14Days | 20.8% | 12.5% | 21.9% | |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 5.9% | 11.9% | 15.7% | Season | 19.0% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 14.3% | Road | 22.0% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% | L14Days | 17.7% | 14.7% | 7.7% | 21.7% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 15.1% | Season | 14.6% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 30.5% | Home | 22.2% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 15.8% | L14Days | 14.6% | 10.4% | 5.9% | 30.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 22.9% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 11.5% | Season | 27.8% | 9.7% | 6.3% | 15.6% | Road | 22.3% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.0% | L14Days | 27.1% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 6.9% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.4% | 12.6% | 10.2% | Season | 32.9% | 7.1% | 33.3% | 10.0% | Home | 23.2% | 8.3% | 16.2% | 13.8% | L14Days | 36.0% | 8.0% | 42.9% | 3.8% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.9% | 8.8% | 13.5% | 18.7% | Season | 19.1% | 14.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | Home | 21.3% | 9.9% | 16.8% | 24.1% | L14Days | 13.0% | 17.4% | 8.3% | 9.3% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.4% | Season | 19.3% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 12.5% | Road | 16.4% | 7.8% | 17.1% | 3.2% | L14Days | 13.5% | 10.8% | 11.1% | -3.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Yrs | 21.6% | 6.5% | 11.0% | 12.4% | Season | 10.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | Road | 23.3% | 6.9% | 15.3% | 13.9% | L14Days | 3.9% | 7.7% | 17.4% | ||
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 14.3% | Season | 20.0% | 10.0% | 14.3% | Home | 23.6% | 14.6% | 19.5% | 10.1% | L14Days | 20.0% | 10.0% | 14.3% | ||
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 8.0% | Season | 33.8% | 14.7% | 40.0% | 28.6% | Road | 24.6% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 16.9% | L14Days | 27.7% | 19.2% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 23.2% | 4.7% | 16.4% | 13.6% | Season | 26.1% | 2.9% | 16.7% | 14.3% | Home | 29.7% | 4.0% | 18.8% | 9.1% | L14Days | 20.8% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 19.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 18.0% | Season | 14.1% | 10.9% | 4.2% | 34.1% | Road | 17.8% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 21.9% | L14Days | 6.7% | 15.6% | 26.5% | |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 15.3% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 13.6% | Season | 8.3% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 15.0% | Road | 12.9% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 14.8% | L14Days | 8.3% | 8.3% | 25.0% | 15.0% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 11.2% | Season | 26.9% | 7.5% | 12.5% | 14.3% | Home | 23.0% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 12.5% | L14Days | 24.4% | 8.9% | 6.9% | |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 24.5% | 9.1% | 16.8% | 18.0% | Season | 29.2% | 3.1% | 4.6% | Road | 20.5% | 11.9% | 13.5% | 20.6% | L14Days | 34.0% | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 8.4% | 16.6% | 17.6% | Season | 40.9% | 5.6% | 25.0% | 13.2% | Home | 23.7% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | L14Days | 44.7% | 6.4% | ||
| Sal Romano | Reds | L2 Yrs | 17.5% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 9.5% | Season | 9.7% | 12.5% | 15.0% | 1.8% | Road | 18.2% | 7.9% | 6.8% | -0.6% | L14Days | 10.6% | 10.6% | 6.7% | -5.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | L2 Yrs | 40.0% | 4.4% | 10.0% | -12.0% | Season | 40.0% | 4.4% | 10.0% | -12.0% | Home | 52.2% | 4.4% | 10.0% | L14Days | 52.2% | 4.4% | 10.0% | ||
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 23.1% | 12.2% | 22.8% | 8.4% | Season | Home | 24.8% | 8.5% | 16.0% | 1.1% | L14Days | ||||||||
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.9% | 8.3% | 11.0% | 8.5% | Season | 14.5% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 17.3% | Home | 18.1% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 12.1% | L14Days | 18.4% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 23.7% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 18.8% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 8.1% | Season | 21.2% | 13.5% | 9.1% | -2.9% | Home | 19.3% | 11.3% | 27.5% | 12.2% | L14Days | 21.2% | 13.5% | 9.1% | -2.9% |
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 3.8% | 11.2% | Season | 22.6% | 3.8% | 11.2% | Home | 20.0% | 6.7% | 33.3% | L14Days | 23.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | ||||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Yrs | 21.5% | 10.0% | 19.3% | 13.3% | Season | 29.2% | 4.2% | 16.7% | -6.3% | Home | 22.2% | 12.4% | 23.1% | 13.9% | L14Days | 29.2% | 4.2% | 16.7% | -6.3% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Home | 20.3% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 4.5% | RH | 23.1% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 6.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.1% | 13.5% | 4.5% |
| Padres | Home | 23.6% | 8.6% | 14.0% | 19.0% | LH | 23.9% | 6.6% | 16.1% | 19.4% | L7Days | 26.6% | 7.8% | 17.0% | 19.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.8% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 25.3% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | 3.8% | 16.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 4.1% | 7.7% | 20.4% |
| Astros | Road | 23.7% | 11.7% | 7.4% | 19.9% | LH | 25.4% | 8.8% | 16.0% | 15.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.0% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | RH | 19.4% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 5.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 8.9% | 18.5% | 4.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 15.2% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 9.4% | RH | 17.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 16.9% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.6% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| Twins | Home | 26.0% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 9.4% | RH | 24.9% | 10.6% | 13.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 26.5% | 17.1% | 9.1% | 6.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 26.5% | 9.1% | 16.4% | 16.6% | LH | 21.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 18.1% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 16.6% |
| Angels | Home | 20.7% | 8.4% | 19.7% | 25.1% | LH | 16.2% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 23.0% | L7Days | 14.0% | 7.5% | 12.9% | 27.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 29.6% | 7.1% | 13.1% | 8.2% | LH | 28.5% | 10.9% | 15.8% | 12.3% | L7Days | 28.4% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 10.8% |
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 9.8% | LH | 31.4% | 9.3% | 4.2% | 11.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 11.8% |
| Royals | Road | 19.9% | 6.0% | 1.9% | 9.9% | LH | 27.1% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 17.2% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 25.0% |
| Indians | Road | 24.8% | 10.7% | 12.5% | 13.6% | RH | 24.0% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 21.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.4% | 14.3% | 31.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.5% | 13.4% | 14.9% | 14.0% | LH | 20.9% | 12.0% | 17.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 23.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 17.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.1% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 17.1% | RH | 24.5% | 12.1% | 11.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 28.2% | 7.4% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| Reds | Road | 22.0% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 3.7% | RH | 25.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 4.7% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.8% | 6.1% | 20.0% | 3.3% | RH | 19.8% | 7.6% | 15.2% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.1% | 15.6% | 10.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 32.4% | 7.2% | 3.0% | -6.1% | RH | 24.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 2.3% | L7Days | 23.9% | 6.0% | 11.6% | 7.9% |
| Rays | Home | 22.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 9.5% | LH | 27.7% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 21.2% | 11.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 23.6% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 20.9% | RH | 23.6% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 23.7% | L7Days | 24.8% | 7.1% | 17.7% | 18.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.1% | 10.9% | 6.6% | 7.9% | RH | 26.4% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 13.0% |
| Braves | Home | 18.8% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 6.2% | RH | 19.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 4.8% | L7Days | 19.6% | 11.5% | 12.2% | 2.1% |
| Giants | Road | 24.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 19.1% | LH | 24.6% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 19.0% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | 25.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 29.4% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 8.3% | RH | 27.0% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 26.2% | 7.7% | 19.6% | 2.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 15.9% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 16.8% | RH | 16.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 21.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 17.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 27.4% | 6.9% | 30.0% | 20.9% | RH | 24.2% | 8.1% | 13.9% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.3% | 7.1% | 13.0% | 12.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | 17.9% | 10.0% | RH | 23.5% | 7.1% | 13.5% | 4.6% | L7Days | 27.7% | 6.2% | 16.1% | -3.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 23.1% | 9.4% | 23.6% | 16.9% | RH | 22.8% | 8.1% | 17.9% | 13.1% | L7Days | 20.0% | 12.2% | 19.6% | 9.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.9% | 5.1% | 15.6% | 17.2% | RH | 25.8% | 7.9% | 12.9% | 18.3% | L7Days | 32.2% | 7.0% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.4% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 12.8% | RH | 20.8% | 11.3% | 15.4% | 13.1% | L7Days | 24.5% | 10.6% | 11.7% | 10.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 14.6% | 5.6% | 2.61 | 14.6% | 5.6% | 2.61 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 21.4% | 11.0% | 1.95 | 21.4% | 11.0% | 1.95 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 22.5% | 7.8% | 2.88 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 2.88 |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | ||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.28 | 4.6% | 3.6% | 1.28 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 | 17.1% | 7.8% | 2.19 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 33.3% | 12.1% | 2.75 | 33.3% | 12.1% | 2.75 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 22.1% | 7.9% | 2.80 | 22.1% | 7.9% | 2.80 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 19.0% | 9.4% | 2.02 | 19.0% | 9.4% | 2.02 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.15 | 14.6% | 6.8% | 2.15 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 27.8% | 10.7% | 2.60 | 27.8% | 10.7% | 2.60 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 32.9% | 15.0% | 2.19 | 32.9% | 15.0% | 2.19 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 19.1% | 10.4% | 1.84 | 19.1% | 10.4% | 1.84 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 19.3% | 9.2% | 2.10 | 19.3% | 9.2% | 2.10 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 10.6% | 7.0% | 1.51 | 10.6% | 7.0% | 1.51 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 20.0% | 5.8% | 3.45 | 20.0% | 5.8% | 3.45 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 33.8% | 14.8% | 2.28 | 33.8% | 14.8% | 2.28 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 26.1% | 13.3% | 1.96 | 26.1% | 13.3% | 1.96 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 14.1% | 7.5% | 1.88 | 14.1% | 7.5% | 1.88 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 8.3% | 6.6% | 1.26 | 8.3% | 6.6% | 1.26 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 26.9% | 7.9% | 3.41 | 26.9% | 7.9% | 3.41 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 29.2% | 11.4% | 2.56 | 29.2% | 11.4% | 2.56 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 40.9% | 17.9% | 2.28 | 40.9% | 17.9% | 2.28 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 9.7% | 6.0% | 1.62 | 9.7% | 6.0% | 1.62 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 40.0% | 23.5% | 1.70 | 40.0% | 23.5% | 1.70 |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | ||||||
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 14.5% | 4.8% | 3.02 | 14.5% | 4.8% | 3.02 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 |
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | 22.6% | 10.8% | 2.09 | 22.6% | 10.8% | 2.09 |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 29.2% | 10.8% | 2.70 | 29.2% | 10.8% | 2.70 |
Prior to last season, Corey Kluber had a SwStr rate in the 12% range for three straight years. His career rate is 12.7%. Expectations should be to match last season and they needn’t be for him to remain great.
Patrick Corbin has been just as amazing as Shohei Ohtani when you consider the latter has only faced the A’s twice. Neither will stay where they are, but both arms could be really exciting this year.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 5.06 | 4.28 | -0.78 | 5.06 | -0.92 | 5.31 | 0.25 | 6.04 | 0.98 | 5.06 | 4.30 | -0.76 | 4.14 | -0.92 | 5.31 | 0.25 |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 5.09 | 2.77 | -2.32 | 5.09 | -2.36 | 2.09 | -3.00 | 3.43 | -1.66 | 5.09 | 2.77 | -2.32 | 2.73 | -2.36 | 2.09 | -3.00 |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 2.50 | 4.36 | 1.86 | 2.50 | 2.29 | 5.67 | 3.17 | 4.93 | 2.43 | 2.50 | 4.36 | 1.86 | 4.79 | 2.29 | 5.67 | 3.17 |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | 5.47 | |||||||||||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 5.27 | 7.79 | 2.52 | 5.27 | 1.42 | 6.64 | 1.37 | 6.99 | 1.72 | 5.27 | 7.81 | 2.54 | 6.69 | 1.42 | 6.64 | 1.37 |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 2.04 | 4.97 | 2.93 | 2.04 | 2.90 | 4.70 | 2.66 | 6.12 | 4.08 | 2.04 | 4.98 | 2.94 | 4.94 | 2.90 | 4.70 | 2.66 |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 1.57 | 2.30 | 0.73 | 1.57 | 0.71 | 2.36 | 0.79 | 1.99 | 0.42 | 1.57 | 2.30 | 0.73 | 2.28 | 0.71 | 2.36 | 0.79 |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 5.40 | 4.63 | -0.77 | 5.40 | -0.43 | 5.26 | -0.14 | 3.79 | -1.61 | 5.40 | 4.63 | -0.77 | 4.97 | -0.43 | 5.26 | -0.14 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 2.40 | 4.55 | 2.15 | 2.40 | 2.51 | 3.46 | 1.06 | 4.45 | 2.05 | 2.40 | 4.55 | 2.15 | 4.91 | 2.51 | 3.46 | 1.06 |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 2.13 | 5.23 | 3.10 | 2.13 | 3.03 | 4.16 | 2.03 | 5.36 | 3.23 | 2.13 | 5.25 | 3.12 | 5.16 | 3.03 | 4.16 | 2.03 |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 2.20 | 3.46 | 1.26 | 2.20 | 1.17 | 2.69 | 0.49 | 3.29 | 1.09 | 2.20 | 3.47 | 1.27 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 2.69 | 0.49 |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 3.94 | 2.60 | -1.34 | 3.94 | -1.31 | 4.74 | 0.80 | 3.73 | -0.21 | 3.94 | 2.60 | -1.34 | 2.63 | -1.31 | 4.74 | 0.80 |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 2.20 | 5.22 | 3.02 | 2.20 | 2.77 | 4.10 | 1.90 | 4.84 | 2.64 | 2.20 | 5.23 | 3.03 | 4.97 | 2.77 | 4.10 | 1.90 |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 1.13 | 4.04 | 2.91 | 1.13 | 2.90 | 3.62 | 2.49 | 5.68 | 4.55 | 1.13 | 4.04 | 2.91 | 4.03 | 2.90 | 3.62 | 2.49 |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.69 | 5.04 | 4.35 | 0.69 | 4.04 | 2.75 | 2.06 | 4.96 | 4.27 | 0.69 | 5.04 | 4.35 | 4.73 | 4.04 | 2.75 | 2.06 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 1.69 | 4.17 | 2.48 | 1.69 | 2.12 | 2.68 | 0.99 | 7.22 | 5.53 | 1.69 | 4.18 | 2.49 | 3.81 | 2.12 | 2.68 | 0.99 |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 7.71 | 3.25 | -4.46 | 7.71 | -5.26 | 3.77 | -3.94 | 3.49 | -4.22 | 7.71 | 3.25 | -4.46 | 2.45 | -5.26 | 3.77 | -3.94 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 5.19 | 3.06 | -2.13 | 5.19 | -1.77 | 4.33 | -0.86 | 3.90 | -1.29 | 5.19 | 3.07 | -2.12 | 3.42 | -1.77 | 4.33 | -0.86 |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 8.76 | 5.67 | -3.09 | 8.76 | -2.28 | 4.60 | -4.16 | 7.08 | -1.68 | 8.76 | 5.68 | -3.08 | 6.48 | -2.28 | 4.60 | -4.16 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 8.68 | 5.59 | -3.09 | 8.68 | -3.25 | 7.66 | -1.02 | 5.25 | -3.43 | 8.68 | 5.60 | -3.08 | 5.43 | -3.25 | 7.66 | -1.02 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 2.93 | 3.27 | 0.34 | 2.93 | 0.53 | 3.58 | 0.65 | 5.88 | 2.95 | 2.93 | 3.28 | 0.35 | 3.46 | 0.53 | 3.58 | 0.65 |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 2.70 | 2.50 | -0.20 | 2.70 | -0.30 | 1.32 | -1.38 | 5.53 | 2.83 | 2.70 | 2.51 | -0.19 | 2.4 | -0.30 | 1.32 | -1.38 |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 2.45 | 1.57 | -0.88 | 2.45 | -1.24 | 1.97 | -0.48 | 4.64 | 2.19 | 2.45 | 1.57 | -0.88 | 1.21 | -1.24 | 1.97 | -0.48 |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 5.87 | 5.88 | 0.01 | 5.87 | 0.01 | 6.45 | 0.58 | 5.99 | 0.12 | 5.87 | 5.89 | 0.02 | 5.88 | 0.01 | 6.45 | 0.58 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 2.08 | 1.73 | -0.35 | 2.08 | -0.17 | 1.75 | -0.33 | 2.08 | 1.73 | -0.35 | 1.91 | -0.17 | 1.75 | -0.33 | ||
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 4.31 | |||||||||||||||
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 1.56 | 5.05 | 3.49 | 1.56 | 3.12 | 3.86 | 2.30 | 3.94 | 2.38 | 1.56 | 5.06 | 3.50 | 4.68 | 3.12 | 3.86 | 2.30 |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 4.91 | 4.65 | -0.26 | 4.91 | -0.43 | 4.15 | -0.76 | 4.78 | -0.13 | 4.91 | 4.65 | -0.26 | 4.48 | -0.43 | 4.15 | -0.76 |
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | 0.00 | 3.03 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 3.48 | 2.43 | 2.43 | 0.00 | 3.04 | 3.04 | 3.48 | 3.48 | 2.43 | 2.43 | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 1.29 | 2.57 | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.49 | 3.34 | 2.05 | 7.01 | 5.72 | 1.29 | 2.57 | 1.28 | 2.78 | 1.49 | 3.34 | 2.05 |
Alex Wood has a 31.8 LOB%, but also a .241 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB. Estimators still love him because he hasn’t walked anyone.
Lance McCullers is going to take a while to get back to normal after his last start. He’s got a .485 BABIP right now.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 0.296 | 0.286 | -0.010 | 58.3% | 16.7% | 11.1% | 88.9% | 32.4% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.303 | 0.241 | -0.062 | 56.6% | 13.2% | 6.3% | 87.7% | 31.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.314 | 0.190 | -0.124 | 39.1% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 89.3% | 38.0% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | 0.264 | |||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.294 | 0.292 | -0.002 | 53.2% | 27.7% | 11.1% | 92.4% | 56.7% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.279 | 0.213 | -0.066 | 40.4% | 17.0% | 10.0% | 88.3% | 27.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.244 | 0.188 | -0.056 | 49.0% | 18.4% | 12.5% | 87.7% | 30.3% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.258 | 0.262 | 0.004 | 26.7% | 22.2% | 8.7% | 87.7% | 36.3% |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.288 | 0.220 | -0.068 | 38.1% | 7.1% | 17.4% | 81.0% | 38.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.282 | 0.171 | -0.111 | 38.9% | 13.9% | 0.0% | 86.7% | 37.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.273 | 0.341 | 0.068 | 40.0% | 24.4% | 6.3% | 83.1% | 25.5% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.307 | 0.333 | 0.026 | 45.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 78.4% | 44.7% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.260 | 0.250 | -0.010 | 34.1% | 25.0% | 22.2% | 89.0% | 38.7% |
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.308 | 0.103 | -0.205 | 57.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 86.9% | 35.5% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.286 | 0.225 | -0.061 | 38.5% | 17.9% | 17.6% | 89.7% | 48.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.302 | 0.286 | -0.016 | 50.0% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 95.8% | 47.0% |
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 0.293 | 0.485 | 0.192 | 62.9% | 22.9% | 0.0% | 79.0% | 24.6% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.313 | 0.267 | -0.046 | 34.7% | 16.3% | 20.8% | 89.6% | 32.2% |
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.323 | 0.391 | 0.068 | 25.5% | 23.4% | 4.2% | 90.9% | 37.1% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.298 | 0.351 | 0.053 | 40.0% | 30.0% | 0.0% | 88.7% | 36.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.285 | 0.293 | 0.008 | 45.2% | 16.7% | 6.3% | 88.5% | 36.5% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.287 | 0.326 | 0.039 | 43.9% | 26.8% | 8.3% | 85.9% | 39.3% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.280 | 0.306 | 0.026 | 62.2% | 16.2% | 0.0% | 76.3% | 22.3% |
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.272 | 0.245 | -0.027 | 52.7% | 10.9% | 15.0% | 93.1% | 34.2% |
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 0.260 | 0.125 | -0.135 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 65.5% | 31.2% |
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.293 | |||||||
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.289 | 0.255 | -0.034 | 42.3% | 23.1% | 16.7% | 94.9% | 30.2% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.287 | 0.364 | 0.077 | 50.0% | 15.6% | 9.1% | 89.7% | 39.8% |
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | 0.294 | 0.222 | -0.072 | 50.0% | 22.2% | 10.0% | 91.2% | 32.6% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.272 | 0.067 | -0.205 | 56.3% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 86.7% | 42.2% |
Neither Corey Kluber nor the Cleveland Indians will maintain their current BABIP, but the profile is strong so far.
StatCast Chart
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 0.327 | 0.026 | 0.351 | 0.038 | 0.327 | 0.026 | -0.2 | ||||
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | 0.207 | 0.021 | 0.280 | -0.018 | 0.207 | 0.021 | -0.5 | ||||
| Andrew Cashner | Orioles | 0.404 | -0.090 | 0.334 | -0.047 | 0.404 | -0.090 | -1.9 | ||||
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | 0.309 | -0.033 | |||||||||
| Bryan Mitchell | Padres | 0.394 | -0.009 | 0.395 | -0.008 | 0.394 | -0.009 | -0.5 | ||||
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | 0.403 | -0.102 | 0.376 | -0.006 | 0.403 | -0.102 | -0.6 | ||||
| Corey Kluber | Indians | 0.265 | -0.080 | 0.302 | -0.041 | 0.265 | -0.080 | -0.5 | ||||
| Danny Duffy | Royals | 0.397 | -0.060 | 0.307 | 0.002 | 0.397 | -0.060 | 0.6 | ||||
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.336 | -0.088 | 0.316 | -0.015 | 0.336 | -0.088 | -0.7 | ||||
| Francisco Liriano | Tigers | 0.469 | -0.224 | 0.317 | -0.024 | 0.469 | -0.224 | -0.5 | ||||
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | 0.321 | -0.019 | 0.290 | -0.018 | 0.321 | -0.019 | -1.2 | ||||
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.373 | -0.034 | 0.324 | -0.001 | 0.373 | -0.034 | -0.8 | ||||
| Jake Odorizzi | Twins | 0.316 | -0.033 | 0.337 | -0.016 | 0.316 | -0.033 | -1.4 | ||||
| Jarlin Garcia | Marlins | 0.308 | -0.146 | 0.354 | -0.019 | 0.308 | -0.146 | -0.8 | ||||
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | 0.317 | -0.104 | 0.337 | -0.016 | 0.317 | -0.104 | -1.2 | ||||
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.346 | -0.002 | |||||||||
| “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr | Astros | 0.311 | 0.086 | 0.329 | -0.003 | 0.311 | 0.086 | -1.1 | ||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | 0.324 | -0.011 | 0.306 | -0.021 | 0.324 | -0.011 | -1.3 | ||||
| Matt Moore | Rangers | 0.384 | 0.013 | 0.373 | 0.023 | 0.384 | 0.013 | -1.1 | ||||
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | 0.414 | 0.063 | 0.369 | -0.001 | 0.414 | 0.063 | -1.3 | ||||
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | 0.328 | -0.013 | 0.339 | -0.009 | 0.328 | -0.013 | -0.4 | ||||
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | 0.300 | -0.055 | 0.348 | 0.025 | 0.300 | -0.055 | -0.3 | ||||
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | 0.241 | -0.002 | 0.305 | 0.000 | 0.241 | -0.002 | -0.6 | ||||
| Sal Romano | Reds | 0.377 | -0.045 | 0.300 | 0.034 | 0.377 | -0.045 | -1.3 | ||||
| Shohei Ohtani | Angels | 0.205 | -0.072 | 0.155 | -0.087 | 0.205 | -0.072 | 0.3 | ||||
| Trevor Cahill | Athletics | 0.272 | 0.005 | |||||||||
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | 0.333 | -0.053 | 0.316 | -0.017 | 0.333 | -0.053 | 0.5 | ||||
| Tyler Chatwood | Cubs | 0.332 | 0.042 | 0.349 | 0.034 | 0.332 | 0.042 | -1.0 | ||||
| Yonny Chirinos | Rays | 0.292 | -0.073 | 0.389 | -0.188 | 0.292 | -0.073 | -0.5 | ||||
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | 0.358 | -0.006 |
Corey Kluber won’t sustain a sub-.200 wOBA you say?
Lance McCullers has the largest positive difference between his wOBA and xwOBA (.311).
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We have some exciting, really high upside arms on the mound if nothing else tonight.
Value Tier One
Patrick Corbin (2) has a justified 40.9 K% and costs less than $10K against an offense that has struggled and has a 24.6 K% vs LHP. He just struck out nine of them. That’s not to say you should expect him to sustain a 40% strikeout rate or the Giants a 25% strikeout rate against southpaws, but, again, he costs less than $10K! Corbin may be my pitcher crush for 2018. I don’t think it’s getting carried away with a small sample size either because the turn around really started last year.
Value Tier Two
Corey Kluber (1) shouldn’t be expected to sustain what he did last season, though he can still be awesome and be counted on for seven innings almost every time out. You really can’t say that about more than a handful of pitchers. The only concern would be that I know nothing about the stadium. It could be…Coors Light for all I know.
Lance McCullers (4) might not be fine, but there’s a good enough chance his last outing was a fluke. He’s still generating tons of swings and misses and ground balls. My largest concern would really be his workload, but who doesn’t have those concerns and that’s probably the only reason you’re getting a pitcher with a 15% swinging strike rate and 60% plus ground ball rate for less than $10K.
Yonny Chirinos profiles as a league average pitcher. That’s not the same as saying that’s what he’ll be, but that’s not even what he needs to be for less than $5K on DraftKings where you can pair him with any of the more expensive arms in a great spot against a below average Rangers’ offense with a high strikeout rate in a negative run environment. That was a long, run-on sentence, but it was necessary.
Value Tier Three
Shohei Ohtani (3) has a much tougher matchup, at least in terms of fantasy point accumulation if nothing else. The Red Sox don’t strike out. He could nearly cut his K% and SwStr% in half and still be worth a $10-11K price tag. I don’t think a fade is necessarily wrong if it looks like he’ll be over-owned here.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Alex Wood hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in any start. He’s gone six innings once and eight innings once in three starts. Although walks don’t directly affect daily fantasy lines much, efficiency is important in that it can lead to deeper outings. There were a couple of concerning issues here, but some impressive stuff under the hood convinced me it might be wrong to abandon him at this point. He’s still missing bats and generating weak ground balls. Ninety pitches can get you through six innings with good control.
Johnny Cueto hasn’t been as good as his ERA through two starts, but is someone we should expect length from against a mediocre lineup tonight. There’s probably very little separation between him and someone like Gio Gonzalez though. My feeling is simply that his floor is a bit higher.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.