Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, August 28th
Our pitching articles of the 2018 season concludes with two full 15 game night slates and certainly several big arms on this one. We get a Scherzer/Nola rematch and some other top pitchers are not necessarily in great spots. In fact, it looks like most of the highest strikeout rate pitchers are facing some of the more contact prone teams. Let’s see if we can find a gem or two.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -8.7 | 3.56 | 6.4 | 49.9% | 0.99 | 2.95 | 2.26 | Nationals | 89 | 100 | 110 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | -1.8 | 4.18 | 5.9 | 42.3% | 1.04 | 3.33 | 3.86 | Brewers | 93 | 95 | 119 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 3.6 | 5.35 | 5.4 | 52.1% | 1.14 | 4.53 | 5.16 | Dodgers | 105 | 112 | 122 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 8.2 | 4.37 | 5.3 | 37.8% | 1.12 | 4.52 | 5.50 | Marlins | 86 | 80 | 53 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 6.7 | 3.25 | 6.0 | 45.5% | 1.10 | 3.28 | 3.03 | Twins | 83 | 96 | 80 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | -1.2 | 3.56 | 5.9 | 50.1% | 0.89 | 3.23 | 3.90 | Athletics | 119 | 108 | 123 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | -0.2 | 4.36 | 5.8 | 40.3% | 0.91 | 4.25 | 3.09 | Giants | 101 | 88 | 62 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 8.8 | 4.42 | 6.0 | 47.0% | 1.01 | 4.29 | 4.09 | Mets | 105 | 80 | 85 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.9 | 4.92 | 5.5 | 36.6% | 0.89 | 4.84 | 6.68 | Astros | 106 | 104 | 161 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -2.3 | 4.62 | 5.4 | 45.4% | 0.91 | 4.84 | 4.63 | Padres | 90 | 81 | 83 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.6 | 4.30 | 5.9 | 46.4% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.22 | Cardinals | 92 | 96 | 99 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 2.3 | 3.52 | 5.2 | 43.8% | 0.93 | 3.64 | 2.90 | Pirates | 96 | 96 | 85 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | -5.2 | 3.22 | 6.6 | 45.0% | 1.01 | 3.08 | 2.54 | Cubs | 111 | 104 | 141 |
| Jacob Nix | Padres | -5.7 | 4.90 | 3.7 | 61.0% | 0.91 | 5.64 | 5.08 | Mariners | 103 | 102 | 102 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.3 | 4.23 | 5.8 | 40.8% | 1.04 | 4.35 | 4.22 | Tigers | 75 | 78 | 88 |
| James Shields | White Sox | -4.4 | 4.87 | 5.9 | 36.8% | 1.03 | 5.20 | 4.59 | Yankees | 122 | 109 | 97 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | -0.3 | 4.73 | 5.5 | 47.2% | 1.12 | 4.64 | 4.64 | Red Sox | 117 | 116 | 78 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 3.3 | 4.67 | 5.8 | 39.6% | 0.99 | 4.90 | 3.68 | Rays | 95 | 101 | 151 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 5.1 | 4.69 | 5.1 | 39.3% | 1.04 | 5.08 | 3.76 | Reds | 102 | 93 | 66 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | -1.1 | 4.64 | 5.7 | 51.3% | 0.92 | 4.70 | 3.30 | Angels | 107 | 84 | 75 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.7 | 4.51 | 5.8 | 49.0% | 1.10 | 4.16 | 5.03 | Indians | 114 | 108 | 106 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 3.8 | 4.67 | 5.4 | 46.6% | 1.03 | 4.58 | 3.95 | White Sox | 92 | 95 | 114 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -4.6 | 3.99 | 6.4 | 41.5% | 0.91 | 3.82 | 3.95 | Diamondbacks | 90 | 103 | 77 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 2.6 | 4.61 | 5.4 | 34.6% | 1.04 | 4.65 | 3.49 | Royals | 85 | 76 | 106 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | -4.3 | 2.90 | 6.6 | 35.4% | 0.99 | 3.22 | 3.19 | Phillies | 97 | 94 | 109 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | -0.1 | 3.51 | 1.5 | 32.8% | 0.99 | 4.86 | 5.65 | Braves | 96 | 95 | 81 |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | -5.6 | 4.10 | 7.0 | 40.7% | 1.04 | 3.89 | 4.94 | Orioles | 97 | 74 | 55 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | -4.6 | 3.38 | 5.8 | 51.1% | 1.14 | 3.67 | 2.86 | Rangers | 108 | 97 | 60 |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | -8.4 | 1.04 | Blue Jays | 97 | 91 | 118 | |||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels | 3.9 | 0.92 | Rockies | 86 | 79 | 105 |
Aaron Nola has struck out 20 of his last 56 batters over his last 15 innings, shutting out the Nats for eight in his last start. He’s gone at least seven innings in six of his last 10 starts. While he’s not an elite strikeout pitcher, he’s solidly above average (25.6%) with an increased 13.8 SwStr% over the last month. He’s a fine contact manager (as are all three NL Cy contenders today) with a 50 GB% and 85.6 mph aEV and the third best xwOBA (.265). Although the results have been just average, the Naionals are a well-disciplined bunch (10.7 K-BB%).
Anthony DeSclafani allowed his first two HRs in four starts at Wrigley last time out. He is up to 17 in 14 starts now with just a 20.8 K% and does face an incredibly powerful offense (16.4 HR/FB vs RHP) in one of the most power friendly parks in the majors, but the Brewers also have a 25.1 K% vs RHP. He also broke a straight of seven innings in three straight starts last time out.
Carlos Carrasco got smoked in Boston last time out, a feat which should generally be ignored at this point. He’s gone into that start having pitched into the seventh in six straight starts. His 28 K% is only fifth best on this talented board, his 15.1 SwStr% over the last month tied for second. A 3.13 SIERA is third, while an 89.6 mph aEV keeps him from achieving a truly elite xwOBA, his .297 mark is still a top 10 mark among a very tough group. The Twins aren’t a very potent offense (9.2 HR/FB on the road, 11.4 HR/FB vs RHP), but have just an average 12.9 K-BB% against RHP in one of the most positive run environments on the board.
Charlie Morton is inconsistent. He has the ability to go deep into games with a bunch of strikeouts, but doesn’t always do both or either of those things. Overall, his 29.7 K% is fourth best on the board. Something to watch is that his SwStr% has declined and been in single digits in three straight starts, but he’s been up and down with that before. He may not get the recognition for being a strong contact manager, but his .290 xwOBA is actually sixth best on the board with only 30.6% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. His hard contact rate has reached 30% in just one of his last nine starts. He faces a difficult (13.4 K-BB% vs RHP, 15.8 HR/FB on the road) and hard hitting Oakland lineup, but in the most negative run environment.
Clay Buchholz has done the following over his last three starts: 23 IP – 4 R – 1 HR – 2 BB – 17 K – 86 BF. He’s not as good as his ERA suggests, but still has estimators below four. He’s generally been something of a league average pitcher, who’s pitching deep into games. He’s also in a great park adjusted spot in San Francisco (16.0 K-BB%, 9.7 HR/FB vs RHP).
Felix Hernandez has been awful. He’s not missing bats and generating too much hard contact. He’s been terrible against LHBs, but he did strike out six Astros last time out and he’s in a great park against a San Diego offense (81 wRC+, 25.9 K% vs RHP) that doesn’t have a lot of LH potency to attack him with. If there’s anything left in that arm, now would be the time to show it.
Ivan Nova did not fare well in his only start against the Cardinals this season (4 IP – 4 R – 3 BB – 3 K), but has since rattled off three straight starts of at least six innings with two runs or less. He doesn’t miss nearly enough bats (16.4 K%) to be a primary pitching option, but could be competent enough against a primarily RH lineup (.308 wOBA against him this year) to serve in a secondary capacity. He’s facing an average offense at best against RHP in a negative run environment.
Jack Flaherty has struck out at least seven in seven straight starts, but has gone beyond six innings just once over that span. He has completed six in four straight starts though and his 15.7 SwStr% is best on the board over the last month, his 31 K% for the season behind just Scherzer and deGrom. He’s been a strong contact manager as well. His 86 mph aEV is fifth best on the board, his .277 xwOBA is fourth. Give him a heavier workload and the rate stats compare favorably to just above everyone on this board, which is saying quite a lot. The Pirates just a 19.8 K% vs RHP, but he’s faced them four times, striking out a total of nine over his first three attempts, all before June, but seven of 22 in his most recent effort against them this month. This will be only the second time he faces them at home.
Jacob deGrom may not have had his best stuff last time out, walking four Giants, but still struck out at least nine for the sixth time in seven starts. His 31.5 K% is second best on the board. Removing two starts sandwiching a short DL stint, he’s failed to complete seven innings in just eight of 24 starts and has failed to complete six innings just once by a single out. His 2.89 SIERA is second best on the board, but it gets even better than that because his .254 xwOBA is best due to a board best 85.4 mph aEV and 27.8% 95+ mph EV. He enters the difficult confines of Wrigley (Cubs 11.5 K-BB% vs RHP), likely under adverse conditions, but has proven that he can handle just about anything thrown at him this year, even without his best stuff.
Jakob Junis had two great starts against the Cubs and Cardinals (11 IP – 2 ER – 2 BB – 16 K) sandwiched by two very mediocre ones against the White Sox (11 IP – 6 ER – 6 BB – 10 K) and followed up by a decent one against the Rays (5.2 IP – 4 R – 2 ER – 0 BB – 5 K). More interestingly, he hasn’t allowed a HR in four starts, but still has 26 over 24 starts, many of them in an extremely power suppressing park. While Kansas City is a positive run environment the Tigers pose little threat (< 80 wRC+, < 9 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP).
Kyle Freeland has struck out 26 of his last 78 batters (33%) with an 11.4 SwStr% over that span. One of those starts was against the Padres, but the other two were the Dodgers and Braves. The SwStr% doesn’t fully support the strikeout rate spike, but it is above average. If he can continue anything close to this with his 48.4 GB% and 85.8 mph aEV, he’s going to be very interesting. The Angels have just a 20.8 K% against LHP, but also an 84 wRC+ and it’s obviously a massive park upgrade.
Lance Lynn started off strong for the Yankees, but has allowed 10 ERs to Miami and Toronto over his last 9.1 innings. He has pitched very well against the White Sox this season (18.1 IP – 6 ER – 0 HR – 2 BB – 24 K – 74 BF), who are a high upside matchup (18.8 K-BB% vs RHP), but he’s completed six innings just once for his new team and as Tanaka found out last night, the White Sox could be dangerous in this park.
Madison Bumgarner outdueled deGrom in his last start (8 IP -1 ER – 8 K) to push his strikeout rate up to 20.5% for the season. That’s still not very impressive, but he’s now completed seven innings in three of his last six starts and has managed contact fairly well this year (86.8 mph aEV). He faces an Arizona lineup that’s more dangerous against LHP (26.9 Hard-Soft%, 15.3 HR/FB), but still strikes out a bit 23.1% in a park that can help make up for some mistakes.
Matt Boyd is coming off six shutout innings of the White Sox (six strikeouts). The strikeout rate is average, but he’s excelled at managing contact (86.4 mph aEV, 4.5% Barrels/BBE) to the point where his .291 xwOBA is seventh best on a star studded board. He’s the thing that shouldn’t belong, but he does. Despite a positive run environment, he’s in a strong spot against the Royals (15.6 K-BB%, 8.1 HR/FB vs LHP).
Max Scherzer has the top strikeout rate (34.6%) and SIERA (2.74), while trailing deGrom by a few points with a .259 xwOBA. The separator here is matchup. While the Phillies have added a couple of bats to the middle of the order and run a competent group with more depth out there on a nightly basis, they’re still going to swing and miss. Perhaps their 25.1 K% vs RHP over-states things at this point in the season, but they’re not what you’d call a contact prone team by any measure. It’s a marginal matchup in a power boosting park, but an overall neutral run environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Junior Guerra (.299 – 74.6% – 12.2 – 15.6% unearned run rate) is rapidly approaching his estimators above four. He’s now fairly cheap on DraftKings in a reasonable matchup against the Reds without Votto, but in a tough park.
Julio Teheran (.216 – 76% – 15.0) faces a scrappy bunch of Rays, who happen to be one of the hottest offenses on the board (151 wRC+ last seven days), though the peripherals don’t really support those results.
Edwin Jackson (.230 – 83.1% – 11.7) is in the most negative run environment on the board, but with a difficult matchup inside of it. Over his last two starts, both at home, he’s allowed four HRs with five walks and just four strikeouts (44 BF).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Walker Buehler has completed seven innings in three of his last five starts with a 30.9 SwStr% over that span and is facing an offense with a 24.7 K% vs RHP. However, his SwStr% does not fully support such a high strikeout rate and he’s facing this powerful (15 HR/FB at home and vs RHP) strikeout prone offense in Texas.
Cole Hamels has allowed four runs in 34 innings with a 17.3 K-BB%, 54.2 GB% and 5.8 Hard-Soft% in five starts for the Cubs. He has not allowed a HR and walked a total of eight batters. This peak almost seems unsustainable for a pitcher with HR and control problems over the last several years. Perhaps it’s a health thing and he is facing a Mets’ offense with an 80 wRC+, 24.8 K% and 9.4 HR/FB vs LHP, but they jumped on a lefty last night and while Kevin’s forecast is not yet up (but will be by the time this is published), it does look like we’ll see similar conditions at Wrigley tonight with warmer than normal temperatures and the wind blowing out.
James Shields may be challenged to complete his six innings in this spot. Remember, the workload is not based on merit as much as necessity for the White Sox.
Brian Johnson is facing the Marlins, but it’s an offense with just a league average 12.9 K-BB% vs LHP with a massive park bump.
Jose Urena may have not thought this suspension timing thing all the way through if he’s returning at Fenway.
Kyle Gibson has struggled recently and faces the class of the division in a difficult park in Cleveland.
Thomas Pannone threw seven innings of one-hit ball in his first major league starts, but he struck out just three and it was against the Orioles. He was not a prospect of interest entering the season (40 FV grade on his Fangraphs page), but did have a 26 K% in six AAA starts. He faces the Orioles again, who have a 74 wRC+ against LHP, but don’t strike out a ton (22.3%) and it’s a bit of a park downgrade, while he’s now more marginally priced.
Josh Rogers is not a prospect of interest (40 Future Value grade via Fangraphs) and has not exceeded an 18.1 K% since A-ball.
Ryne Stanek will open. I can’t find where the Rays have announced plans beyond that and it probably doesn’t matter against the contact prone Braves.
Noe Ramirez will start what looks to be a bullpen game for the Angels against the Rockies.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.1% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 5.2% | Season | 25.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 2.2% | Home | 29.2% | 6.1% | 11.3% | 2.0% | L14Days | 35.7% | 3.6% | 6.0% | |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | L2 Yrs | 20.2% | 6.3% | 18.5% | 22.6% | Season | 20.8% | 6.0% | 19.3% | 25.6% | Home | 24.5% | 6.6% | 23.3% | 26.1% | L14Days | 17.5% | 3.5% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 8.5% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 35.3% | Season | 8.5% | 7.1% | 18.2% | 35.3% | Home | 12.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 44.7% | L14Days | 7.4% | 3.7% | 8.3% | 37.5% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 7.5% | 11.7% | 11.6% | Season | 21.0% | 7.8% | 11.7% | 12.2% | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 12.0% | L14Days | 11.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 17.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Yrs | 28.0% | 5.3% | 12.8% | 17.1% | Season | 28.0% | 4.9% | 12.9% | 24.3% | Home | 27.4% | 5.4% | 15.8% | 15.5% | L14Days | 26.1% | 4.4% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Yrs | 28.1% | 8.7% | 13.3% | 6.5% | Season | 29.7% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 8.4% | Home | 28.6% | 8.2% | 16.3% | 4.8% | L14Days | 23.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | -6.7% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 18.7% | Season | 21.3% | 5.0% | 9.3% | 21.5% | Road | 19.2% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 15.0% | L14Days | 23.2% | 7.1% | 25.6% | |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 8.6% | 15.0% | 23.7% | Season | 22.9% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 24.0% | Home | 20.1% | 8.0% | 16.7% | 27.0% | L14Days | 17.5% | 7.0% | -14.3% | |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.1% | 8.9% | 15.4% | 15.6% | Season | 17.3% | 8.5% | 11.7% | 19.7% | Road | 16.6% | 7.4% | 12.3% | 11.7% | L14Days | 9.1% | 11.4% | 23.5% | 42.9% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 18.2% | 8.2% | 17.2% | 17.6% | Season | 17.8% | 8.3% | 14.9% | 22.5% | Road | 16.6% | 7.8% | 19.8% | 23.9% | L14Days | 17.0% | 8.5% | 14.3% | 5.7% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 4.3% | 14.6% | 16.3% | Season | 16.4% | 4.7% | 14.6% | 15.2% | Road | 17.5% | 5.2% | 18.7% | 20.8% | L14Days | 14.3% | 13.3% | -2.3% | |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 29.4% | 9.1% | 17.4% | 14.1% | Season | 31.0% | 8.8% | 16.7% | 13.7% | Home | 27.7% | 8.0% | 16.4% | 9.7% | L14Days | 38.6% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 27.3% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Yrs | 30.0% | 6.7% | 11.5% | 7.6% | Season | 31.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | Road | 27.5% | 5.8% | 14.2% | 8.5% | L14Days | 36.9% | 7.1% | ||
| Jacob Nix | Padres | L2 Yrs | 12.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 26.2% | Season | 12.7% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 26.2% | Home | 14.7% | 11.8% | 14.3% | 20.8% | L14Days | 9.7% | 9.7% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 6.3% | 14.6% | 22.7% | Season | 21.9% | 6.6% | 16.5% | 24.9% | Home | 22.2% | 6.6% | 15.6% | 24.5% | L14Days | 19.6% | 5.9% | 32.5% | |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 9.7% | 14.6% | 15.5% | Season | 18.1% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 17.4% | Road | 18.6% | 9.4% | 17.9% | 18.9% | L14Days | 17.2% | 5.2% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 17.0% | 7.8% | 13.4% | 17.8% | Season | 18.9% | 6.8% | 12.4% | 24.2% | Road | 17.4% | 8.0% | 15.2% | 16.2% | L14Days | 12.9% | 6.5% | -12.5% | |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.3% | 9.4% | 13.5% | 12.3% | Season | 22.2% | 11.4% | 15.0% | 19.0% | Home | 19.9% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 13.1% | L14Days | 24.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 21.2% | 10.7% | 14.9% | 19.3% | Season | 21.7% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 21.9% | Road | 19.1% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 25.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 4.2% | 12.5% | |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | Season | 20.6% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | Road | 16.5% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 13.9% | L14Days | 32.0% | 10.0% | 11.1% | 24.1% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 9.1% | 15.8% | 19.4% | Season | 22.4% | 9.8% | 13.6% | 19.9% | Road | 20.1% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 17.0% | L14Days | 18.9% | 13.2% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 10.9% | 13.7% | 11.3% | Season | 23.0% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 16.2% | Home | 20.7% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 8.5% | L14Days | 23.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 22.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | L2 Yrs | 22.5% | 5.9% | 11.2% | 18.0% | Season | 20.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 21.2% | Home | 23.2% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 20.6% | L14Days | 21.7% | 4.8% | 16.7% | 35.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Yrs | 19.9% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 14.4% | Season | 21.9% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 15.4% | Road | 21.3% | 8.7% | 11.6% | 13.4% | L14Days | 27.1% | 2.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Yrs | 33.9% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 7.1% | Season | 34.6% | 6.4% | 9.6% | 5.6% | Road | 33.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | L14Days | 34.7% | 10.2% | 7.7% | -11.1% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | L2 Yrs | 30.8% | 10.8% | 13.5% | 27.1% | Season | 31.0% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 21.2% | Road | 23.4% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 22.6% | L14Days | 13.6% | 4.6% | 22.2% | |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | Season | 21.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | Road | 33.3% | 11.1% | 20.0% | L14Days | 17.7% | 8.8% | 4.2% | ||||
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 27.1% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 12.5% | Season | 27.1% | 6.1% | 13.0% | 13.7% | Road | 26.3% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 10.1% | L14Days | 34.7% | 8.2% | 11.1% | |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days | ||||||||||||||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels | L2 Yrs | Season | Home | L14Days |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 21.8% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 15.9% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 13.5% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 18.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.1% | 7.6% | 15.0% | 13.7% | RH | 25.1% | 8.1% | 16.4% | 18.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.0% | 19.6% | 29.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.1% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 19.8% | RH | 22.6% | 10.0% | 15.5% | 18.9% | L7Days | 26.9% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 35.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 23.8% | 7.5% | 12.4% | 13.1% | LH | 21.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 13.8% |
| Twins | Road | 22.2% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 16.0% | RH | 21.6% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 21.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 5.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 21.8% | 7.9% | 15.8% | 22.8% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | 13.4% | 23.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 7.2% | 17.1% | 21.2% |
| Giants | Home | 21.4% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 19.9% | RH | 23.8% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 17.6% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.8% | 13.2% | 12.8% |
| Mets | Road | 21.6% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 18.6% | LH | 24.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 14.0% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.4% | 12.7% | 13.7% |
| Astros | Home | 20.1% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 11.0% | RH | 20.0% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 16.1% | L7Days | 13.6% | 8.7% | 14.3% | 19.3% |
| Padres | Home | 25.2% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 18.3% | RH | 25.9% | 7.7% | 11.1% | 16.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 3.4% | 16.3% | 20.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.0% | 7.9% | 12.2% | 24.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.1% | 13.7% | 20.8% | L7Days | 24.1% | 5.2% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 19.4% | RH | 19.8% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 12.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 20.0% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.4% | 9.6% | 12.7% | 10.2% | RH | 20.9% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.0% | 22.6% | 13.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.6% | 7.1% | 12.6% | 19.4% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 24.1% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 23.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 12.9% | RH | 22.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 18.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 4.6% | 8.8% | 14.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.4% | 10.6% | 18.3% | 20.7% | RH | 22.5% | 9.3% | 16.2% | 17.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 12.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 19.0% | 8.3% | 13.0% | 16.7% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 19.3% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 22.0% |
| Rays | Road | 22.8% | 7.8% | 11.4% | 15.8% | RH | 22.2% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 16.3% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 22.7% |
| Reds | Home | 22.8% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 25.1% | RH | 21.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 19.6% | L7Days | 20.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.1% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 22.2% | LH | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.3% | 17.8% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 23.3% |
| Indians | Home | 18.2% | 9.5% | 14.9% | 26.0% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | 14.4% | 25.2% | L7Days | 16.7% | 7.5% | 14.0% | 23.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.1% | 6.9% | 14.1% | 18.7% | RH | 25.5% | 6.7% | 14.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.5% | 8.6% | 11.9% | 12.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 23.9% | 9.0% | 14.4% | 18.7% | LH | 23.1% | 9.3% | 15.3% | 26.9% | L7Days | 25.7% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 31.7% |
| Royals | Home | 20.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 25.8% | LH | 23.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 17.3% | L7Days | 28.3% | 5.2% | 16.7% | 30.7% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.4% | 9.4% | 14.7% | 7.9% | RH | 25.1% | 9.3% | 14.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 8.5% | 14.5% | 16.1% |
| Braves | Home | 19.8% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 21.0% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 18.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 24.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.4% | 8.0% | 14.0% | 9.9% | LH | 22.3% | 7.2% | 11.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.5% | 10.2% | 3.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 23.0% | 10.1% | 15.3% | 23.3% | RH | 24.7% | 9.5% | 15.0% | 21.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 20.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 8.9% | 13.6% | 17.4% | LH | 21.9% | 7.6% | 13.5% | 12.3% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.1% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.5% | 8.2% | 14.7% | 17.9% | RH | 23.6% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 16.6% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.5% | 13.8% | 28.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 25.6% | 12.1% | 2.12 | 23.9% | 13.8% | 1.73 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 20.8% | 8.4% | 2.48 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.33 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 8.5% | 3.7% | 2.30 | 8.4% | 3.2% | 2.63 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 21.0% | 8.6% | 2.44 | 23.0% | 8.9% | 2.58 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 28.0% | 14.2% | 1.97 | 31.2% | 15.1% | 2.07 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 29.7% | 12.2% | 2.43 | 26.1% | 9.5% | 2.75 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 21.3% | 9.6% | 2.22 | 23.0% | 9.9% | 2.32 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 22.9% | 12.1% | 1.89 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 2.09 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 17.3% | 8.5% | 2.04 | 15.3% | 8.5% | 1.80 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.17 | 11.1% | 6.6% | 1.68 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 16.4% | 8.8% | 1.86 | 13.8% | 9.0% | 1.53 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 31.0% | 13.4% | 2.31 | 35.1% | 15.7% | 2.24 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 31.5% | 15.0% | 2.10 | 33.5% | 14.3% | 2.34 |
| Jacob Nix | Padres | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.05 | 12.7% | 6.2% | 2.05 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 21.9% | 9.7% | 2.26 | 26.1% | 11.5% | 2.27 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 18.1% | 10.4% | 1.74 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 1.77 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.22 | 14.6% | 7.9% | 1.85 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 22.2% | 11.0% | 2.02 | 23.3% | 11.2% | 2.08 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 21.7% | 10.2% | 2.13 | 17.9% | 12.5% | 1.43 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 20.6% | 8.8% | 2.34 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 2.58 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 22.4% | 11.8% | 1.90 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 1.74 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 23.0% | 10.1% | 2.28 | 30.0% | 10.1% | 2.97 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.18 | 22.1% | 9.7% | 2.28 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 21.9% | 10.0% | 2.19 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 2.39 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 34.6% | 16.2% | 2.14 | 35.5% | 14.2% | 2.50 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 31.0% | 15.0% | 2.07 | 28.1% | 15.1% | 1.86 |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | 21.4% | 12.6% | 1.70 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 1.70 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 27.1% | 9.6% | 2.82 | 30.9% | 11.3% | 2.73 |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | ||||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels |
There are just three pitchers out of range today because we’re at the point in the season where few should be. One of those pitchers has just one start. One we’re certainly not interested. The other we may not be interested in due to a difficult spot on a strong board and the lack of support for his strikeout rate, though I’ve mentioned several times he’s had elite minor league strikeout rates too.
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.13 | 3.51 | 1.38 | 2.13 | 1.16 | 2.66 | 0.53 | 2.50 | 0.37 | 1.03 | 3.52 | 2.49 | 3.21 | 2.18 | 2.50 | 1.47 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 4.26 | 4.12 | -0.14 | 4.26 | -0.23 | 4.97 | 0.71 | 4.71 | 0.45 | 1.95 | 3.84 | 1.89 | 3.57 | 1.62 | 2.90 | 0.95 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 6.40 | 5.35 | -1.05 | 6.40 | -1.38 | 5.75 | -0.65 | 7.21 | 0.81 | 6.18 | 5.27 | -0.91 | 4.91 | -1.27 | 6.12 | -0.06 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 4.12 | 4.21 | 0.09 | 4.12 | 0.32 | 4.27 | 0.15 | 5.75 | 1.63 | 5.87 | 4.17 | -1.70 | 4.55 | -1.32 | 5.72 | -0.15 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 3.55 | 3.13 | -0.42 | 3.55 | -0.47 | 3.10 | -0.45 | 3.53 | -0.02 | 2.30 | 2.36 | 0.06 | 2.15 | -0.15 | 1.88 | -0.42 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 3.05 | 3.42 | 0.37 | 3.05 | 0.27 | 3.45 | 0.40 | 3.79 | 0.74 | 3.72 | 3.60 | -0.12 | 3.8 | 0.08 | 3.50 | -0.22 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 2.25 | 3.94 | 1.69 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 3.39 | 1.14 | 3.15 | 0.90 | 2.08 | 3.71 | 1.63 | 3.53 | 1.45 | 3.04 | 0.96 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 3.82 | 3.99 | 0.17 | 3.82 | 0.13 | 4.54 | 0.72 | 5.21 | 1.39 | 0.79 | 3.41 | 2.62 | 3.19 | 2.40 | 2.36 | 1.57 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.97 | 4.90 | 1.93 | 2.97 | 1.85 | 4.66 | 1.69 | 5.22 | 2.25 | 1.88 | 5.46 | 3.58 | 5.4 | 3.52 | 4.97 | 3.09 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 5.64 | 4.66 | -0.98 | 5.64 | -0.91 | 5.03 | -0.61 | 5.32 | -0.32 | 7.82 | 5.76 | -2.06 | 5.95 | -1.87 | 6.75 | -1.07 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 4.20 | 4.40 | 0.20 | 4.20 | 0.07 | 4.53 | 0.33 | 4.54 | 0.34 | 3.57 | 4.79 | 1.22 | 4.49 | 0.92 | 3.82 | 0.25 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 2.97 | 3.31 | 0.34 | 2.97 | 0.36 | 3.76 | 0.79 | 2.76 | -0.21 | 2.08 | 3.02 | 0.94 | 2.9 | 0.82 | 2.99 | 0.91 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 1.71 | 2.89 | 1.18 | 1.71 | 1.01 | 2.07 | 0.36 | 2.25 | 0.54 | 1.69 | 2.64 | 0.95 | 2.53 | 0.84 | 1.44 | -0.25 |
| Jacob Nix | Padres | 6.17 | 4.89 | -1.28 | 6.17 | -1.12 | 4.61 | -1.56 | 6.74 | 0.57 | 6.17 | 4.90 | -1.27 | 5.05 | -1.12 | 4.61 | -1.56 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 4.70 | 4.06 | -0.64 | 4.70 | -0.42 | 4.84 | 0.14 | 5.91 | 1.21 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 0.25 | 3.36 | 0.11 | 2.58 | -0.67 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 4.59 | 4.85 | 0.26 | 4.59 | 0.42 | 4.80 | 0.21 | 4.96 | 0.37 | 4.81 | 4.54 | -0.27 | 4.82 | 0.01 | 5.56 | 0.75 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 4.50 | 4.18 | -0.32 | 4.50 | -0.38 | 4.09 | -0.41 | 4.07 | -0.43 | 3.91 | 5.00 | 1.09 | 4.9 | 0.99 | 4.81 | 0.90 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.09 | 4.63 | 0.54 | 4.09 | 0.58 | 5.00 | 0.91 | 4.12 | 0.03 | 2.93 | 4.46 | 1.53 | 4.52 | 1.59 | 4.07 | 1.14 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 3.72 | 4.35 | 0.63 | 3.72 | 0.59 | 4.24 | 0.52 | 4.65 | 0.93 | 6.00 | 4.38 | -1.62 | 4.1 | -1.90 | 5.04 | -0.96 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 2.96 | 4.33 | 1.37 | 2.96 | 1.24 | 3.86 | 0.90 | 3.86 | 0.90 | 2.27 | 3.67 | 1.40 | 3.46 | 1.19 | 3.03 | 0.76 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 3.63 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 3.63 | 0.32 | 4.06 | 0.43 | 4.16 | 0.53 | 4.55 | 4.81 | 0.26 | 4.34 | -0.21 | 5.31 | 0.76 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 4.84 | 4.44 | -0.40 | 4.84 | -0.66 | 4.17 | -0.67 | 5.78 | 0.94 | 3.81 | 3.11 | -0.70 | 3 | -0.81 | 2.04 | -1.77 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 2.88 | 4.42 | 1.54 | 2.88 | 1.39 | 3.83 | 0.95 | 4.23 | 1.35 | 2.53 | 4.14 | 1.61 | 4.12 | 1.59 | 3.93 | 1.40 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 4.09 | 4.30 | 0.21 | 4.09 | 0.56 | 3.91 | -0.18 | 5.07 | 0.98 | 2.56 | 4.31 | 1.75 | 4.73 | 2.17 | 3.66 | 1.10 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 2.13 | 2.74 | 0.61 | 2.13 | 0.91 | 2.63 | 0.50 | 2.22 | 0.09 | 1.36 | 2.73 | 1.37 | 2.81 | 1.45 | 2.49 | 1.13 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 2.53 | 3.44 | 0.91 | 2.53 | 1.41 | 3.36 | 0.83 | 3.14 | 0.61 | 4.30 | 4.00 | -0.30 | 4.58 | 0.28 | 5.54 | 1.24 |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | 1.59 | 4.10 | 2.51 | 1.59 | 2.93 | 2.62 | 1.03 | 2.94 | 1.35 | 1.59 | 4.10 | 2.51 | 4.52 | 2.93 | 2.62 | 1.03 |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 2.96 | 3.28 | 0.32 | 2.96 | 0.24 | 3.23 | 0.27 | 3.33 | 0.37 | 1.11 | 3.02 | 1.91 | 2.9 | 1.79 | 3.03 | 1.92 |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | ||||||||||||||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels | 5.26 |
Aaron Nola has a .256 BABIP, 81.8 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB.
Anthony DeSclafani has a .267 BABIP and 19.3 HR/FB that balance out everywhere except his FIP.
Clay Buchholz has a .257 BABIP, 85 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB.
Felix Hernandez has a 63.3 LOB%, so there is some hope for him to be better than his estimators, even if that’s still not very good.
Jack Flaherty has a .252 BABIP and 82.7 LOB%, which even out with his 16.7 HR/FB everywhere except his FIP.
Jacob deGrom has an 82.3 LOB% and 6.3 HR/FB. Considering the strikeout rate, the strand rate may be near sustainable. Considering the contact management, the HR rate may still be a bit low.
Kyle Freeland has an 82.9 LOB%.
Madison Bumgarner has an 80.7 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB. He does pitch in an extremely power suppressing park.
Max Scherzer has a .251 BABIP, 84.8 LOB% and 9.6 HR/FB, but is elite in nearly every aspect of the game, including his BABIP profile below.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his .team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.299 | 0.256 | -0.043 | 50.0% | 20.1% | 14.1% | 82.3% | 32.2% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.300 | 0.267 | -0.033 | 40.4% | 22.1% | 5.7% | 89.1% | 36.0% |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.302 | 0.301 | -0.001 | 52.1% | 20.2% | 15.2% | 95.3% | 47.4% |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.291 | 0.306 | 0.015 | 38.5% | 20.6% | 10.7% | 92.5% | 32.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.296 | 0.317 | 0.021 | 45.0% | 21.4% | 8.3% | 87.1% | 31.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.283 | 0.291 | 0.008 | 48.3% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 82.8% | 33.7% |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.284 | 0.257 | -0.027 | 41.9% | 20.5% | 8.1% | 88.3% | 36.5% |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.281 | 0.293 | 0.012 | 45.5% | 23.6% | 10.2% | 85.5% | 35.5% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.273 | 0.230 | -0.043 | 35.6% | 23.4% | 13.0% | 91.7% | 43.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.298 | 0.292 | -0.006 | 45.3% | 19.8% | 12.8% | 91.0% | 35.1% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 45.0% | 20.9% | 9.9% | 89.8% | 38.2% |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.287 | 0.252 | -0.035 | 42.9% | 21.1% | 13.5% | 81.5% | 36.9% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.302 | 0.293 | -0.009 | 44.8% | 23.2% | 15.9% | 80.0% | 30.2% |
| Jacob Nix | Padres | 0.309 | 0.317 | 0.008 | 61.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 90.9% | 34.0% |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.314 | 0.300 | -0.014 | 41.2% | 20.7% | 8.9% | 90.7% | 31.2% |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.289 | 0.263 | -0.026 | 35.3% | 21.2% | 9.7% | 87.1% | 37.1% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.294 | 0.288 | -0.006 | 52.1% | 18.2% | 10.7% | 87.8% | 37.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.280 | 0.216 | -0.064 | 38.9% | 20.1% | 11.8% | 84.0% | 37.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.279 | 0.299 | 0.020 | 42.4% | 20.5% | 12.2% | 86.8% | 41.1% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.300 | 0.278 | -0.022 | 48.4% | 18.0% | 8.6% | 87.7% | 36.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.308 | 0.284 | -0.024 | 48.0% | 22.0% | 11.4% | 88.4% | 35.8% |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.293 | 0.333 | 0.040 | 50.3% | 21.9% | 10.7% | 84.9% | 44.2% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.295 | 0.271 | -0.024 | 41.8% | 23.3% | 9.4% | 90.1% | 34.0% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.291 | 0.257 | -0.034 | 31.0% | 21.4% | 11.1% | 85.4% | 37.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.288 | 0.251 | -0.037 | 36.0% | 17.6% | 17.6% | 77.5% | 34.7% |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.276 | 0.237 | -0.039 | 31.7% | 14.6% | 15.2% | 80.5% | 40.3% |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.138 | -0.171 | 40.7% | 11.1% | 23.1% | 73.6% | 46.2% |
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.286 | 0.266 | -0.020 | 49.6% | 19.1% | 6.5% | 86.8% | 36.8% |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | 0.313 | |||||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels | 0.295 |
Aaron Nola is a strong contact manager with a nice BABIP profile and a poor defense. I’m not too concerned with the BABIP, but it could regress slightly.
Anthony DeSclafani really doesn’t have much of a basis for his decreased BABIP, though it seems a lot of his hard contact actually leaves the yard. He doesn’t limit line drives or induce many popups either.
Clay Buchholz has an average BABIP profile, but a strong defense. He’s not that far below them.
Jack Flaherty has a favorable profile and excels at generating weak contact.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.265 | -0.024 | 0.259 | 0.002 | 0.274 | -0.048 | 0.300 | 85.6 | 3.8 | 31.000 | 442 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 0.320 | 0.004 | 0.294 | 0.045 | 0.271 | -0.002 | 0.500 | 87.3 | 6.6 | 33.500 | 242 |
| Ariel Jurado | Rangers | 0.399 | -0.028 | 0.367 | -0.032 | 0.391 | -0.020 | -0.200 | 92.6 | 7.6 | 52.900 | 119 |
| Brian Johnson | Red Sox | 0.333 | -0.009 | 0.341 | -0.026 | 0.359 | -0.008 | -0.300 | 88.8 | 7.1 | 35.400 | 254 |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 0.297 | -0.005 | 0.322 | 0.009 | 0.264 | 0.008 | -0.100 | 89.6 | 6.3 | 38.200 | 395 |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | 0.290 | 0.003 | 0.289 | 0.002 | 0.298 | 0.032 | -0.900 | 87.1 | 5.8 | 30.600 | 359 |
| Clay Buchholz | Diamondbacks | 0.317 | -0.047 | 0.319 | -0.042 | 0.287 | -0.017 | -0.100 | 87.7 | 6.4 | 35.600 | 233 |
| Cole Hamels | Cubs | 0.343 | -0.017 | 0.344 | -0.008 | 0.288 | -0.055 | -0.100 | 88 | 6.9 | 34.100 | 419 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.355 | -0.062 | 0.345 | -0.009 | 0.367 | -0.071 | -0.200 | 87.4 | 8.3 | 34.900 | 192 |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | 0.364 | -0.018 | 0.390 | -0.011 | 0.366 | 0.017 | -0.200 | 88.8 | 8.1 | 37.500 | 432 |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | 0.354 | -0.023 | 0.358 | -0.005 | 0.346 | -0.034 | -1.000 | 89.1 | 8.1 | 39.300 | 455 |
| Jack Flaherty | Cardinals | 0.277 | -0.001 | 0.290 | 0.004 | 0.237 | -0.006 | 1.100 | 86 | 5.9 | 33.300 | 270 |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | 0.254 | -0.012 | 0.282 | 0.004 | 0.230 | 0.013 | 1.100 | 85.4 | 3.3 | 27.800 | 421 |
| Jacob Nix | Padres | 0.385 | -0.038 | 0.341 | -0.137 | 0.385 | -0.038 | -0.200 | 88 | 2.4 | 38.100 | 42 |
| Jakob Junis | Royals | 0.344 | -0.004 | 0.345 | -0.015 | 0.311 | 0.000 | -0.800 | 88.5 | 8.8 | 36.800 | 419 |
| James Shields | White Sox | 0.354 | -0.035 | 0.383 | -0.023 | 0.342 | -0.001 | 0.700 | 88 | 8.2 | 35.900 | 527 |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 0.325 | -0.017 | 0.351 | -0.049 | 0.332 | -0.049 | -0.600 | 87.7 | 5.8 | 36.700 | 414 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.340 | -0.039 | 0.353 | -0.021 | 0.310 | -0.073 | -0.400 | 88 | 7.4 | 37.500 | 379 |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | 0.333 | -0.006 | 0.388 | -0.039 | 0.322 | 0.079 | -0.200 | 88.1 | 7.0 | 39.100 | 384 |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | 0.310 | -0.015 | 0.334 | -0.005 | 0.288 | -0.002 | 0.600 | 85.8 | 5.6 | 28.900 | 461 |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.326 | -0.020 | 0.325 | -0.020 | 0.342 | 0.033 | 0.800 | 87 | 6.0 | 36.700 | 447 |
| Lance Lynn | Yankees | 0.321 | 0.012 | 0.322 | -0.028 | 0.258 | 0.040 | -0.100 | 87.9 | 4.9 | 37.800 | 370 |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 0.317 | -0.021 | 0.299 | -0.030 | 0.316 | -0.010 | -0.200 | 86.8 | 6.5 | 32.400 | 278 |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | 0.291 | -0.004 | 0.319 | 0.031 | 0.266 | -0.007 | -0.800 | 86.4 | 4.5 | 29.500 | 400 |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | 0.259 | -0.015 | 0.258 | -0.025 | 0.216 | -0.018 | -0.700 | 85.8 | 7.1 | 32.300 | 409 |
| Ryne Stanek | Rays | 0.289 | -0.031 | 0.322 | -0.030 | 0.280 | 0.072 | -1.000 | 90.2 | 9.7 | 37.900 | 124 |
| Thomas Pannone | Blue Jays | 0.231 | -0.068 | 0.231 | -0.068 | -0.600 | 86.4 | 0.0 | 41.400 | 29 | ||
| Walker Buehler | Dodgers | 0.278 | -0.014 | 0.295 | 0.007 | 0.259 | -0.024 | -0.300 | 87.8 | 5.3 | 30.800 | 247 |
| Josh Rogers | Orioles | |||||||||||
| Noe Ramirez | Angels | 0.331 | 0.007 | 0.329 | 0.021 | 0.321 | 0.016 | -1.200 | 89 | 8.3 | 39.900 | 193 |
Look how closely all three Cy Young contenders rank in xwOBA and aEV at the top of the board. Jack Flaherty compares favorably with them, as does Matt Boyd, which may be even more surprising, or at least was earlier in the season.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It’s a very deep board with difficult pricing. See how hard it is to separate the large group of third tier arms.
Value Tier One
Charlie Morton (4) is in a dangerous matchup and the strikeouts are on a downtrend, while he’s probably got a much wider range of outcomes than other high upside pitchers, but he does have similar upside to the higher priced arms tonight and costs only $8.9K on FanDuel in the most negative run environment on the board. He could have a bit more success against this lineup than Cole due to his stronger contact management skills.
Value Tier Two
Max Scherzer (1) has one of the more favorable matchups among the high priced arms and that’s not saying much because the Phillies are a competent group of bats. He’s gone at least seven innings in four of six starts with double digit strikeouts in the same number and that’s probably somewhat the expectation here.
Value Tier Three
Jack Flaherty (5) is a high upside arm in a not so high upside matchup, but he’s in a favorable park and should be in a decent run prevention spot at least and could pay off his $10K cost if he does exactly what he did last time against them.
Jacob deGrom (2) is probably usable in any situation. That includes potentially very difficult conditions at Wrigley tonight. He’s just a bit less expensive than Scherzer.
Aaron Nola (3) dispatched the Nationals fairly easily last time and has the skill level to do so again, but he’s very expensive and they usually don’t strike out very much.
Carlos Carrasco (6) is a very talented, but expensive pitcher in a matchup without a ton of upside in a difficult run environment. He’s faced the Twins five time this season, striking out 18 in his two most recent, but just a total of four over his previous two. He’s allowed 13 runs in 25.2 innings against them.
Madison Bumgarner may not have the strikeout rate he’s had in the past, but he’s pitching deep into games and managing contact well in a great park with a cost around $9K.
Matt Boyd might be good and he’s relatively affordable in an interesting spot in KC.
Ivan Nova costs is not an option on FanDuel, but costs just $5.3K on DK in a decent matchup in a favorable park against a predominantly right-handed lineup.
Felix Hernandez is really cheap in a high upside matchup in San Diego and they have few LHBs (.370 wOBA against him this year) with which to attack him. If you’re paying up on DK, you’re going to need someone in his price range.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Kyle Freeland is becoming costly and is facing a contact prone team, but gets an extreme park bump and if he keeps pitching like he has over his last three starts, price will be less of an issue.
Clay Buchholz has been a league average arm by almost every underlying metric. That’s not as good as his results seem to suggest, but it’s still valuable, especially when he’s throwing seven innings. I never thought I’d ever consider him at $10K or that he’d ever even reach that price, but he’s in a nice spot in a great park.
Anthony DeSclafani is an affordably risky arm in a matchup with some upside.
Jakob Junis is a home run prone pitcher, but strikeouts are up while HRs are down recently. He’s facing an offense with very little power at a reasonably low price.
Lance Lynn is affordable and has performed well against the White Sox this season. He just has the feel of a pitcher I’m going to regret using for some reason though. It’s not a matchup without risk. The White Sox strike out a lot, but are not completely inept.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.