Advanced Stats - Pitching: Tuesday, June 13th
Due to circumstances beyond control, it’s been a busy morning and today’s article may be a bit brief in areas of disinterest today. Apologies for being a big late today. Thursday could run a bit late as well.
It seems as if I’m not the only one running behind as the Brewers haven’t named a starter for either game of today’s double-header as of late Monday night though DK currently lists Espino for Game Two, while the Rangers don’t seem to have a plan either yet.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | -3.5 | 4.85 | 4.77 | 35.8% | 0.98 | 5.4 | 4.12 | CHW | 104 | 83 | 106 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 4 | 6.37 | 7. | 46.8% | 1.13 | 5.1 | 6.37 | BOS | 95 | 96 | 100 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 1.6 | 3.9 | 4.69 | 43.8% | 0.94 | 3.92 | 3.62 | TEX | 83 | 96 | 106 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 2.6 | 4.62 | 5.29 | 46.3% | 0.98 | 4.37 | 3.95 | ARI | 70 | 107 | 141 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 1.3 | 4.37 | 5.87 | 48.7% | 0.91 | 4.55 | 2.96 | ANA | 107 | 99 | 94 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 6.7 | 4.63 | 5.1 | 37.6% | 1.04 | 5.37 | 4.11 | MIN | 98 | 103 | 78 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 1 | 2.41 | 7.11 | 48.3% | 1.09 | 2.55 | 2.05 | CLE | 103 | 86 | 77 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -7.9 | 3.96 | 5.97 | 61.0% | 0.91 | 3.58 | 3.54 | CIN | 96 | 103 | 112 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.1 | 3.41 | 6.62 | 43.4% | 1.13 | 3.18 | 4.67 | PHI | 73 | 85 | 58 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.4 | 4.86 | 5.61 | 39.2% | 0.98 | 4.7 | 6.29 | BAL | 93 | 95 | 88 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -7.4 | 3.89 | 5.96 | 45.4% | 0.97 | 3.99 | 3.93 | COL | 93 | 83 | 106 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.8 | 3.97 | 6.1 | 50.0% | 1.03 | 3.97 | TOR | 96 | 95 | 92 | |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 8 | 4.26 | 5.45 | 36.9% | 0.93 | 4.75 | 4.47 | SFO | 75 | 77 | 103 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | -5.6 | 4.17 | 5.93 | 48.1% | 0.91 | 4.16 | 4.42 | NYY | 107 | 128 | 185 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -14.3 | 4.65 | 5.61 | 37.4% | 0.94 | 4.71 | 6.06 | MIA | 96 | 94 | 106 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -1.9 | 3.86 | 5.56 | 43.8% | 1.01 | 3.44 | 2.27 | ATL | 96 | 92 | 84 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 2.3 | 3.48 | 6.34 | 48.4% | 0.91 | 3.71 | 4.52 | NYM | 89 | 90 | 128 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.7 | 5.09 | 5.2 | 44.8% | 0.94 | 5.04 | 5.33 | OAK | 84 | 102 | 109 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 9.1 | 4.53 | 5.73 | 50.5% | 1.04 | 4.37 | 4.47 | SEA | 97 | 107 | 103 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2 | 4.32 | 6.07 | 32.3% | 1.03 | 4.46 | 3.72 | TAM | 100 | 115 | 119 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | -11.6 | 5.73 | 2.2 | 35.7% | 0.98 | MIL | 95 | 97 | 101 | ||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 1.3 | 5.22 | 5.36 | 44.5% | 0.94 | 6.03 | 4.85 | HOU | 110 | 120 | 96 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | -4 | 4.59 | 4. | 44.4% | 0.98 | 3.79 | 5.11 | STL | 96 | 95 | 96 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 2.6 | 4.9 | 6.13 | 43.7% | 1.01 | 5.02 | 4.67 | WAS | 117 | 111 | 75 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 13.6 | 4.42 | 5.58 | 0.474 | 0.91 | 4.08 | 5.03 | SDG | 85 | 85 | 124 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -5.5 | 4.14 | 5.8 | 0.462 | 1.09 | 3.83 | 3.59 | LOS | 86 | 103 | 87 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | -0.2 | 4.91 | 6.29 | 0.519 | 0.93 | 4.42 | 3.84 | KAN | 79 | 79 | 119 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.7 | 4.57 | 5.9 | 0.576 | 0.97 | 4.15 | 3.78 | PIT | 95 | 94 | 118 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -4.9 | 3.52 | 6.54 | 0.468 | 0.98 | 3.41 | 2.27 | DET | 125 | 101 | 115 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 1.1 | 4.4 | 5.65 | 0.486 | 0.91 | 4.02 | 4.26 | CHC | 80 | 86 | 90 |
NOTE MLB.com currently has Nick Martinez listed for the Rangers as of 10 AM ET, while the Brewers have still yet to name a pitcher for either game of their double-header.
Brad Peacock had struck out 25 of 59 batters in three previous starts against good offenses before setting down just one Angel and being knocked out after three innings, walking four. That’s what happens when you throw a first pitch strike to just every third batter. His walk rate is up to 12.6% on the season, but we have seen the upside in his strikeout rate, while he’s allowed barrels on just 1.3% of contact, so what are we to do? He had his best start against Texas, striking out nine through six innings of two run ball and gets a park upgrade in the rematch tonight. The Rangers strike out quite a bit (25.4% on the road, 23.2% vs RHP, 26.1% over the last week).
Buck Farmer has not allowed a run through two starts (12 IP), striking out 16 of 46 batters (28.3 K-BB%). He’s generated a 17.3 K-BB% at AAA as well this year. He generates as many fly balls as ground balls, but not a lot of hard contact (around 25%), making it good news that the Diamondbacks have to travel to him. They’ve been a red hot offense (14.0 BB%, 22.9 HR/FB over the last week) and strong against RHP (16.6 HR/FB), but terrible on the road (25.4 K%).
Clayton Kershaw has looked human at times this season, though not in three of his last four starts (33 Ks – 71 BF). He’s gone at least seven innings in 10 of 13 starts, though he’s already 75% of the way to his career high in HRs (12 – 16) and has hit a 30% hard hit rate for the first time in his career. At just 30.3% though, there’s still time to drop that down, while half of his HRs have come in two starts, one of which was in Colorado. His 12.9 SwStr% is his lowest in four years, but that has picked up too over the last month. He sees a good offense with a DH today, but they’ve continued to struggle with LHP despite a key RH addition in the off-season and a 17.7 K% against them.
Clayton Richard has had trouble keeping runs off the board with a .374 BABIP over his last 10 starts. He’s not generating ground balls at as dominant a rate as he was earlier in the season, but has still been at 54% over that span with just a league average 31.3% of contact regarded as hard hit. He does have a respectable, if not league average, SwStr% though and has only allowed three HRs at home. The Reds have some power (18.9 HR/FB vs LHP, 21.5 HR/FB over the last week), but the negative run environment puts this matchup in the pitcher’s favor.
David Price has allowed a HR in each of his three starts, but has struggled only against the Yankees (6 ER – 4 BB – 4 K). That’s fairly acceptable with a -4.2 Hard-Soft% backing him up so far. An 81.3 mph aEV conflicts with a 10.4% Barrels/BBE mark due to sample size. His velocity is fine and he’s missing bats in line with the last two seasons on more than 11% of pitches. The first home start of the season comes in a great spot against the Phillies. Just take a look at their batting lines.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 11 of his last 50 batters, though he’s allowed 14 ERs over those 9.2 innings. The matchup against Miami last time out was particularly fluky with a -15 Hard-Soft% and .550 BABIP. After generating a double digit SwStr% in five straight starts, he’s failed to reach 9% in any of his last five starts. The biggest reason to possibly consider him tonight is Colorado’s 16.0 K-BB% on the road and 14.0 K-BB% vs RHP in a park that crushes RH power.
Jacob Faria was impressive in his first start (16.8 SwStr%) and has a 34.7 K% in AAA this year. We’ll just hope he doesn’t repeat his 56.3 Hard%. It’s been a struggle for Toronto this year, though they’re still generating power (16.4 HR/FB vs RHP, 21.4 HR/FB last seven days).
Joe Ross had been hammered for eight HRs over five starts before striking out 12 of 26 Orioles with just a single run allowed. The problem is that RH batters were pounding him as well as LH batters this season, while he’s still generating just a 35.4 GB% with a 34.9 Hard% against them. It was still the same pitches (sinker, slider) 98% of the time. He was just able to better bury those pitches where he wanted them most often against RHBs, making it more difficult to generate good contact. He threw strike one 69.2% of the time, allowing him to generate a 47.8% chase rate and 18.3 SwStr% with a 50 GB% and 14.3 Hard% overall. This is how he should treat predominantly RH lineups. The Braves aren’t that, but they’re not very good either.
Jon Lester has allowed at least three runs in six or fewer innings in five of six starts with a total of just 12 strikeouts over his last three starts (14.1 IP – 65 BF). Patience is running out, though velocity has ticked up over his last two starts and his 15.3 K-BB% is still above average and around his career rate despite being far below the last three seasons. He’s continuing to generate weak contact as well. He’s been below a 25% hard hit rate in six of his last nine starts. He’s facing an offense that has struggled against LHP in a favorable park, though the return of Cespedes should give them a boost.
Trevor Bauer has an 18.9 K-BB%, the 15th best mark in baseball and easily a career high. His 8.6 SwStr% is below his career rate though, while his 90.2 mph aEV, 11.8% Barrels/BBE, 39.1 Hard% and 44.4% BBEs above 95 mph are all worst on the board. The Dodgers haven’t been as potent as expected, but do walk a lot and gain a DH tonight.
Zack Greinke has eight or more strikeouts in seven of nine starts with no fewer than six in any of them. A 37% hard hit rate is a concern against the hardest hitting offense in baseball, but they strike out more than enough (23.2% vs RHP) to make this work.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jason Vargas (.282 – 86.2% – 6.3) is in a great spot in San Francisco tonight and has not been bad, but the strikeouts keep dropping with his 15.8% over the last month matching his career rate now. It’s actually just 16.1% over his last nine starts. Tough to pay more than $8K for that.
C.C. Sabathia (.280 – 77.1% – 13.6) is running his highest strand rate since 2008, though it doesn’t look that high. Pay attention to his 8.0 SwStr% over the last month though, unbefitting of his 25 K%. He’s stranded 97% of runners over that span as well. He’s not terrible, but he’s probably not an $8K+ pitcher either.
Ty Blach (.260 – 69.1% – 7.7) has a 10% strikeout rate.
Derek Holland (.281 – 73.7% – 16.5) has 11 unearned runs, more than a quarter of his season total.
Christian Bergman (.277 – 83.7% – 15.7)
Jose Urena (.256 – 80.1% – 12.7)
Ben Lively (.277 – 79% – 0)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Marco Estrada has struck out seven or more batters in eight of his last 11 starts, but just recently snapped a string of six straight starts with a HR allowed, having to travel to Oakland to do it, while still allowing four ERs in 5.2 innings. The Rays have a 25.8 K% against RHP, but that’s really the only positive in this matchup. He rarely generates ground balls and is facing an offense with both an 18.5 HR/FB on the road and 18.7 HR/FB vs RHP. This is a dangerous matchup. In fact, Tampa Bay is responsible for five of his 11 HRs in 11 innings this year, all in a more pitcher friendly park.
Tyler Chatwood generates lots of ground balls against a predominantly RH lineup in a park that kills RH power. He should be okay here from a run prevention standpoint. However, the Pirates take walks and don’t strike out a lot. He’s walked at least three in eight of his last 10 (though the two with fewer were each of his last two starts) with four or fewer strikeouts in seven of his last 11. His road success has come against teams like the Padres, Phillies, Giants and struggling Cubs. His $8K price tag seems adequate at best.
Scott Feldman has a league average K%, but just a 7.6 SwStr% over the last month. He’s struck out more than four in just one of his last six starts though. Only 26% of his BBEs have been above 95 mph, one of the lowest marks on the board and the Padres have a 25.8 K% vs RHP (28.1 K% over the last week). He’s really a borderline option for $7K on DraftKings, but probably without enough upside to pay nearly $1K more on a single pitcher site though.
Zack Wheeler has been effective, but with too many flaws to be trusted. He has just a 7.8 SwStr% over the last month with a 33.3 Hard% and 9.9 BB% on the season. He might have one of the top matchups on the board at home against the disappointing Cubs though.
Marco Gonzales missed all of last season and most of 2015. He’s had control issues in previous big league action (12.8 BB% in 37.1 IP) with about average peripherals (12.1 K-BB%) in five AAA starts this season. He has previously put up some more impressive minor league numbers before the injury and the Brewers do have a 27.1 K% vs RHP. I’m not sure I want him on a one pitcher site though and the game is not listed on DraftKings tonight.
JC Ramirez has just a 13.9 K% over the last month and the worst matchup on the board.
Whoever takes the mound for the Brewers.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 14.8% | 6.1% | Road | 14.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 8.9% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 5.4% | 8.9% | Road | 10.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 8.9% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 28.2% | 11.9% | Home | 31.2% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 29.5% | 9.8% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.5% | 11.5% | Home | 22.3% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.1% | 8.3% | Road | 18.4% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.1% | 6.1% | Road | 12.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 8.2% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.4% | 3.3% | Road | 30.0% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 44.2% | 7.7% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 14.7% | 7.0% | Home | 17.6% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 2.0% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.2% | 5.4% | Home | 26.9% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 9.7% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 16.5% | 8.1% | Home | 17.7% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 12.2% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.8% | Home | 19.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 21.7% | 8.7% | Road | L14 Days | 21.7% | 8.7% | ||
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 20.6% | 6.0% | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 14.8% | 3.7% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 17.7% | 6.6% | Home | 17.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 2.2% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.7% | Road | 22.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.9% | 6.3% | Home | 21.6% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 37.8% | 4.4% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.2% | 6.5% | Road | 23.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.7% | 8.7% | Home | 15.0% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 9.3% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.2% | 8.9% | Home | 15.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.0% | 8.0% | Home | 24.7% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 6.5% |
| Marco Gonzales | Cardinals | L2 Years | 6.3% | 6.3% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 12.3% | 8.2% | Road | 10.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.3% |
| Paolo Espino | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.8% | 5.3% | Road | 16.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 15.3% | 8.1% | Road | 15.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 16.2% | 6.8% | Road | 18.0% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 6.3% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.4% | 9.2% | Home | 23.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 31.5% | 13.0% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.2% | 5.6% | Home | 12.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.3% | 10.8% | Road | 19.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 20.3% | 8.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.9% | 5.4% | Road | 23.8% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 6.1% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 21.2% | 9.9% | Home | 22.5% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Home | 22.0% | 8.0% | RH | 23.4% | 5.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 5.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 9.9% | RH | 18.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.9% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.4% | 7.7% | RH | 23.2% | 8.7% | L7Days | 26.1% | 7.6% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 25.4% | 8.2% | RH | 23.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 14.0% |
| Angels | Home | 18.0% | 8.3% | LH | 18.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.2% |
| Twins | Home | 22.1% | 11.4% | RH | 22.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.7% |
| Indians | Home | 19.6% | 9.8% | LH | 17.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.6% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Road | 20.3% | 7.4% | LH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.4% | 6.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.9% | 6.9% | LH | 20.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 4.3% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.5% | 6.5% | LH | 25.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.4% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 7.7% | RH | 22.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.8% | 8.3% | RH | 20.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.3% | 11.2% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 6.7% | LH | 20.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 18.8% | 6.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.6% | 9.0% | RH | 21.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.4% | 12.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.0% | 8.5% | RH | 20.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 3.4% |
| Braves | Road | 19.3% | 7.5% | RH | 19.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 17.4% | 7.4% |
| Mets | Home | 19.2% | 9.5% | LH | 21.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.4% | 10.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.9% | 8.2% | RH | 24.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.7% | 5.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.7% | 8.3% | RH | 20.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 7.4% |
| Rays | Road | 27.5% | 9.6% | RH | 25.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 8.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.6% | 8.9% | LH | 27.1% | 9.3% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.6% |
| Astros | Home | 17.3% | 7.6% | RH | 18.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.4% | 7.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.5% | 9.1% | RH | 19.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.2% |
| Padres | Home | 24.0% | 8.3% | RH | 25.8% | 7.0% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.5% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.3% | 10.4% | RH | 23.4% | 10.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Road | 21.8% | 6.3% | LH | 18.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 9.3% | RH | 18.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.9% |
| Tigers | Home | 19.5% | 9.9% | RH | 23.2% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.0% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.6% | 10.3% | RH | 22.2% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.6% | 11.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.3% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 2017 | 28.2% | 11.5% | 6.4% | Road | 32.8% | 10.4% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 13.3% | 7.1% | -20.0% |
| Ben Lively | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.8% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 2017 | 29.8% | 0.0% | 2.1% | Road | 40.0% | 0.0% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| Brad Peacock | Astros | L2 Years | 31.9% | 10.1% | 14.4% | 2017 | 36.0% | 3.7% | 10.7% | Home | 30.9% | 6.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 8.3% | 30.5% |
| Buck Farmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.5% | 8.7% | 2017 | 25.9% | 0.0% | 14.8% | Home | 31.3% | 13.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% | 29.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.7% | 14.1% | 5.9% | 2017 | 33.8% | 13.6% | 13.4% | Road | 27.0% | 10.2% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% | 12.8% |
| Christian Bergman | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.4% | 14.9% | 18.4% | 2017 | 30.8% | 15.7% | 13.3% | Road | 39.6% | 23.3% | 25.2% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 20.0% | -6.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2017 | 30.3% | 15.6% | 5.6% | Road | 28.8% | 13.3% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 22.2% | 4.0% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 27.6% | 14.4% | 7.3% | 2017 | 30.6% | 18.8% | 11.6% | Home | 28.8% | 7.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 14.3% | 2.6% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.1% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 2017 | 27.1% | 19.0% | -4.2% | Home | 35.6% | 16.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 19.0% | -4.2% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 35.1% | 13.5% | 18.5% | 2017 | 40.5% | 16.5% | 21.5% | Home | 33.8% | 10.8% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 58.1% | 54.5% | 35.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 31.6% | 9.7% | 11.3% | 2017 | 34.7% | 19.2% | 15.3% | Home | 32.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 37.5% | 2.7% |
| Jacob Faria | Rays | L2 Years | 56.3% | 0.0% | 43.8% | 2017 | 56.3% | 0.0% | 43.8% | Road | L14 Days | 56.3% | 0.0% | 43.8% | |||
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 6.2% | 12.2% | 2017 | 30.1% | 6.3% | 11.4% | Road | 27.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 34.9% | 6.7% | 20.9% |
| JC Ramirez | Angels | L2 Years | 32.1% | 16.5% | 13.8% | 2017 | 38.1% | 16.9% | 22.5% | Home | 30.5% | 17.2% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 30.8% | 37.9% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 2017 | 34.6% | 12.2% | 12.8% | Road | 33.9% | 8.2% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 15.4% | 2.9% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 12.1% | 13.1% | 2017 | 36.4% | 20.5% | 12.7% | Home | 28.8% | 12.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 20.0% | -4.0% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.0% | 10.9% | 6.5% | 2017 | 25.5% | 13.6% | 3.7% | Road | 26.8% | 15.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 11.2% | 10.5% | 2017 | 32.0% | 12.7% | 10.7% | Home | 33.2% | 13.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 23.1% | 15.2% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 2017 | 39.0% | 14.9% | 22.5% | Home | 32.8% | 16.9% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 0.0% | 11.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 2017 | 30.4% | 11.3% | 14.5% | Home | 31.3% | 10.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 45.2% | 16.7% | 38.7% |
| Marco Gonzales | Cardinals | L2 Years | 42.9% | 25.0% | 28.6% | 2017 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Nick Martinez | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.8% | 17.2% | 12.6% | 2017 | 26.2% | 17.5% | 4.9% | Road | 28.1% | 13.6% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 27.3% | 16.0% |
| Paolo Espino | Brewers | L2 Years | 27.6% | 22.2% | 6.9% | 2017 | 27.6% | 22.2% | 6.9% | Road | 26.7% | 0.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Braves | L2 Years | 27.1% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 2017 | 28.4% | 16.7% | 2.9% | Road | 30.5% | 12.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 8.3% | -13.9% |
| Scott Feldman | Reds | L2 Years | 26.9% | 13.0% | 6.4% | 2017 | 31.2% | 14.0% | 8.9% | Road | 27.4% | 15.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 12.5% | 5.2% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 32.8% | 14.1% | 14.6% | 2017 | 39.1% | 20.0% | 25.5% | Home | 34.3% | 17.6% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 0.0% | 36.7% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.0% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 2017 | 30.0% | 7.7% | 12.3% | Home | 27.8% | 2.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 7.1% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 2017 | 28.1% | 24.4% | 4.6% | Road | 24.5% | 10.8% | -1.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 18.2% | 0.0% |
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.1% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 2017 | 37.0% | 15.4% | 15.7% | Road | 27.1% | 15.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 33.3% | 10.0% |
| Zack Wheeler | Mets | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 11.8% | 13.9% | Home | 37.6% | 16.0% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | Home | 27.9% | 12.3% | 6.3% | RH | 30.6% | 13.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 41.0% | 13.5% | 23.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 38.3% | 7.5% | 20.9% | RH | 36.0% | 10.2% | 18.5% | L7Days | 41.5% | 10.8% | 24.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.2% | 14.3% | 10.5% | RH | 32.4% | 15.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 28.0% | 18.0% | 9.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.4% | 12.5% | 9.5% | RH | 36.5% | 16.6% | 20.1% | L7Days | 38.9% | 22.9% | 23.6% |
| Angels | Home | 28.3% | 14.2% | 9.0% | LH | 31.5% | 11.2% | 14.3% | L7Days | 34.6% | 9.0% | 13.7% |
| Twins | Home | 33.7% | 10.9% | 17.9% | RH | 33.6% | 13.9% | 17.7% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% |
| Indians | Home | 32.1% | 13.6% | 16.4% | LH | 33.6% | 11.9% | 16.9% | L7Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 18.6% |
| Reds | Road | 29.2% | 14.6% | 9.2% | LH | 29.9% | 18.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 31.2% | 21.5% | 11.3% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.7% | 10.1% | 7.0% | LH | 28.9% | 16.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.5% | 4.1% | 10.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 34.8% | 14.5% | 15.4% | LH | 36.4% | 14.1% | 17.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 19.3% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.0% | 12.9% | 10.4% | RH | 29.7% | 13.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 26.1% | 15.4% | 10.5% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.5% | 13.9% | 10.4% | RH | 31.0% | 16.4% | 11.3% | L7Days | 34.2% | 21.4% | 18.7% |
| Giants | Home | 24.9% | 6.9% | 3.7% | LH | 26.6% | 7.3% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.7% | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 32.0% | 13.5% | 14.5% | RH | 32.8% | 18.7% | 13.9% | L7Days | 37.9% | 23.5% | 19.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.6% | 16.3% | 10.0% | RH | 30.9% | 14.1% | 10.8% | L7Days | 31.4% | 19.0% | 11.6% |
| Braves | Road | 31.7% | 12.9% | 13.5% | RH | 31.2% | 11.0% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.7% | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| Mets | Home | 33.5% | 9.5% | 14.4% | LH | 34.4% | 10.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 35.8% | 19.5% | 15.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.1% | 11.1% | 18.4% | RH | 35.0% | 15.2% | 19.1% | L7Days | 36.3% | 6.8% | 23.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.4% | 10.2% | 13.6% | RH | 30.3% | 11.6% | 12.2% | L7Days | 30.7% | 11.6% | 10.6% |
| Rays | Road | 35.2% | 18.5% | 16.1% | RH | 36.5% | 18.7% | 19.3% | L7Days | 38.6% | 19.3% | 22.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.4% | 16.7% | 11.0% | LH | 36.1% | 15.9% | 13.8% | L7Days | 35.7% | 16.3% | 13.4% |
| Astros | Home | 29.5% | 15.6% | 11.3% | RH | 31.8% | 14.8% | 14.4% | L7Days | 36.1% | 9.2% | 20.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 29.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | RH | 30.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 29.1% | 10.9% | 8.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.2% | 15.2% | 15.3% | RH | 31.0% | 14.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 28.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
| Padres | Home | 28.7% | 12.5% | 6.1% | RH | 29.6% | 14.5% | 7.4% | L7Days | 37.3% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.5% | 9.8% | 16.5% | RH | 34.5% | 13.6% | 19.6% | L7Days | 33.9% | 15.4% | 16.5% |
| Royals | Road | 32.3% | 16.0% | 13.5% | LH | 30.6% | 11.0% | 11.7% | L7Days | 40.9% | 21.7% | 26.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.6% | 8.8% | 7.9% | RH | 30.3% | 9.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 28.4% | 5.0% | 10.4% |
| Tigers | Home | 50.4% | 14.3% | 37.5% | RH | 42.7% | 12.7% | 27.9% | L7Days | 43.1% | 12.3% | 29.9% |
| Cubs | Road | 27.7% | 11.5% | 7.0% | RH | 29.6% | 13.1% | 12.3% | L7Days | 31.1% | 14.5% | 10.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 19.3% | 10.0% | 1.93 | 19.4% | 11.3% | 1.72 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.15 | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.15 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 33.6% | 12.8% | 2.63 | 31.1% | 10.7% | 2.91 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 34.8% | 14.3% | 2.43 | 34.8% | 14.3% | 2.43 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.3% | 9.1% | 2.12 | 25.0% | 8.0% | 3.13 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 16.3% | 8.1% | 2.01 | 18.7% | 8.4% | 2.23 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 29.2% | 12.9% | 2.26 | 33.6% | 14.6% | 2.30 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 17.2% | 8.2% | 2.10 | 19.1% | 8.0% | 2.39 |
| David Price | BOS | 20.8% | 11.2% | 1.86 | 20.8% | 11.2% | 1.86 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 19.0% | 8.3% | 2.29 | 18.9% | 7.7% | 2.45 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 15.1% | 6.6% | 2.29 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 21.7% | 16.8% | 1.29 | 21.7% | 16.8% | 1.29 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 19.9% | 10.9% | 1.83 | 15.8% | 8.6% | 1.84 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 18.7% | 8.7% | 2.15 | 13.9% | 7.2% | 1.93 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 19.7% | 9.9% | 1.99 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.91 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 24.6% | 10.7% | 2.30 | 27.8% | 12.5% | 2.22 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 23.8% | 10.9% | 2.18 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 2.19 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 14.5% | 7.9% | 1.84 | 16.2% | 8.8% | 1.84 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 15.4% | 10.4% | 1.48 | 19.4% | 12.0% | 1.62 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 27.6% | 12.5% | 2.21 | 29.8% | 13.6% | 2.19 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | ||||||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.14 | 13.9% | 6.8% | 2.04 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.19 | 15.8% | 7.2% | 2.19 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 12.4% | 6.9% | 1.80 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 1.68 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 18.6% | 8.2% | 2.27 | 20.0% | 7.6% | 2.63 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 28.2% | 8.6% | 3.28 | 31.5% | 8.7% | 3.62 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 10.0% | 6.3% | 1.59 | 13.3% | 7.4% | 1.80 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 20.1% | 10.0% | 2.01 | 22.0% | 11.2% | 1.96 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 30.0% | 14.5% | 2.07 | 32.6% | 16.1% | 2.02 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 21.2% | 9.0% | 2.36 | 20.8% | 7.8% | 2.67 |
Just a couple of outliers today. One is a lost cause, a few others have just a couple of starts, while Ty Blach wouldn’t be of much use even if his K% met his SwStr%.
Trevor Bauer is the interesting one to be skeptical of here.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 4.35 | 4.35 | 0 | 4.96 | 0.61 | 4.65 | 0.3 | 5.58 | 1.23 | 5.56 | 4.36 | -1.2 | 5.06 | -0.5 | 4.47 | -1.09 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 2.57 | 6.37 | 3.8 | 5.96 | 3.39 | 3.96 | 1.39 | 6.33 | 3.76 | 2.57 | 6.37 | 3.8 | 5.96 | 3.39 | 3.96 | 1.39 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 3.15 | 3.4 | 0.25 | 3.43 | 0.28 | 2.43 | -0.72 | 4.21 | 1.06 | 4.29 | 3.48 | -0.81 | 3.17 | -1.12 | 2.62 | -1.67 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.68 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 3.68 | 3.68 | 0 | 2.74 | 2.74 | 2.68 | 2.68 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 3.66 | 4.35 | 0.69 | 4.19 | 0.53 | 4.21 | 0.55 | 4.71 | 1.05 | 1.11 | 3.42 | 2.31 | 3.31 | 2.2 | 2.94 | 1.83 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 4.03 | 4.91 | 0.88 | 5.18 | 1.15 | 5.57 | 1.54 | 7.39 | 3.36 | 3.99 | 4.82 | 0.83 | 5.22 | 1.23 | 5.76 | 1.77 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.2 | 2.97 | 0.77 | 2.82 | 0.62 | 3.05 | 0.85 | 2.83 | 0.63 | 1.83 | 2.65 | 0.82 | 2.49 | 0.66 | 2.95 | 1.12 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 4.54 | 3.87 | -0.67 | 3.53 | -1.01 | 3.94 | -0.6 | 4.61 | 0.07 | 4.83 | 3.35 | -1.48 | 3.01 | -1.82 | 2.97 | -1.86 |
| David Price | BOS | 5.29 | 4.67 | -0.62 | 5.08 | -0.21 | 5.98 | 0.69 | 5.10 | -0.19 | 5.29 | 4.67 | -0.62 | 5.08 | -0.21 | 5.98 | 0.69 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3.99 | 4.87 | 0.88 | 5.1 | 1.11 | 5.6 | 1.61 | 6.16 | 2.17 | 6.33 | 4.89 | -1.44 | 4.77 | -1.56 | 6.8 | 0.47 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 4.83 | 4.04 | -0.79 | 3.86 | -0.97 | 4.63 | -0.2 | 4.54 | -0.29 | 8.2 | 4.77 | -3.43 | 4.56 | -3.64 | 6.52 | -1.68 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 1.42 | 3.96 | 2.54 | 3.3 | 1.88 | 2.47 | 1.05 | 4.79 | 3.37 | 1.42 | 3.97 | 2.55 | 3.3 | 1.88 | 2.47 | 1.05 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 2.18 | 4.32 | 2.14 | 4.51 | 2.33 | 3.33 | 1.15 | 3.90 | 1.72 | 3.94 | 5.12 | 1.18 | 5.47 | 1.53 | 4.95 | 1.01 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 4.33 | 4.18 | -0.15 | 4.05 | -0.28 | 4.5 | 0.17 | 3.62 | -0.71 | 4.5 | 4.36 | -0.14 | 4.23 | -0.27 | 5.4 | 0.9 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.2 | 4.99 | -0.21 | 5.28 | 0.08 | 5.05 | -0.15 | 6.72 | 1.52 | 4.15 | 5.86 | 1.71 | 6.1 | 1.95 | 5.93 | 1.78 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 6.16 | 3.55 | -2.61 | 3.52 | -2.64 | 4.57 | -1.59 | 4.38 | -1.78 | 5.24 | 3.07 | -2.17 | 2.96 | -2.28 | 3.41 | -1.83 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 4.13 | 3.95 | -0.18 | 3.72 | -0.41 | 3.74 | -0.39 | 3.30 | -0.83 | 5.14 | 3.82 | -1.32 | 3.48 | -1.66 | 3.84 | -1.3 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.96 | 5.27 | 1.31 | 5.64 | 1.68 | 5.51 | 1.55 | 6.44 | 2.48 | 6.12 | 5.56 | -0.56 | 6.14 | 0.02 | 6.74 | 0.62 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.52 | 5.26 | -1.26 | 5.09 | -1.43 | 5.27 | -1.25 | 6.12 | -0.40 | 4.5 | 4.93 | 0.43 | 4.42 | -0.08 | 3.74 | -0.76 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 4.04 | 3.49 | -0.55 | 3.77 | -0.27 | 3.43 | -0.61 | 5.67 | 1.63 | 5.59 | 3.08 | -2.51 | 3.24 | -2.35 | 3.31 | -2.28 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | ||||||||||||||||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 4.88 | 4.92 | 0.04 | 4.98 | 0.1 | 5.66 | 0.78 | 6.06 | 1.18 | 4.56 | 4.97 | 0.41 | 5.1 | 0.54 | 5 | 0.44 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 5.63 | 4.59 | -1.04 | 4.69 | -0.94 | 5.97 | 0.34 | 6.77 | 1.14 | 5.63 | 4.59 | -1.04 | 4.69 | -0.94 | 5.97 | 0.34 |
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 4.73 | 5.51 | 0.78 | 5.35 | 0.62 | 5.77 | 1.04 | 7.22 | 2.49 | 5.15 | 5.83 | 0.68 | 5.82 | 0.67 | 5.28 | 0.13 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 4.09 | 4.54 | 0.45 | 4.17 | 0.08 | 4.23 | 0.14 | 4.37 | 0.28 | 5.04 | 4.11 | -0.93 | 3.9 | -1.14 | 4.34 | -0.7 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.1 | 3.66 | -2.44 | 3.41 | -2.69 | 4.16 | -1.94 | 4.01 | -2.09 | 4.66 | 3.07 | -1.59 | 2.65 | -2.01 | 3.24 | -1.42 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 3.64 | 5.03 | 1.39 | 4.71 | 1.07 | 3.95 | 0.31 | 6.01 | 2.37 | 2.7 | 4.29 | 1.59 | 4.05 | 1.35 | 3.54 | 0.84 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 4.37 | 4.46 | 0.09 | 3.93 | -0.44 | 4.75 | 0.38 | 3.46 | -0.91 | 2.97 | 4.32 | 1.35 | 3.88 | 0.91 | 3.76 | 0.79 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 3.2 | 3.01 | -0.19 | 2.95 | -0.25 | 3.18 | -0.02 | 2.05 | -1.15 | 3.86 | 2.87 | -0.99 | 2.76 | -1.1 | 3.25 | -0.61 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 3.45 | 4.39 | 0.94 | 4.08 | 0.63 | 3.9 | 0.45 | 5.19 | 1.74 | 2.67 | 4.48 | 1.81 | 4.16 | 1.49 | 3.46 | 0.79 |
Clayton Kershaw has a .251 BABIP with a slightly less impressive profile than he normally has supporting a career .270 rate. His 88.8 LOB% is a fluke, though his 78.8% career rate is one of the greatest marks of all time. His 15.6 HR/FB is also double his career rate too.
Clayton Richard does not have a favorable BABIP profile, but consider that last year, only one Arizona pitcher (guess who) had a BABIP above .340 and we’d expect some positive (in his favor) regression here. The 18.8 HR/FB is less of a concern with a ground ball rate hovering near 60%.
Gerrit Cole has allowed eight HRs over the last month (26.7 HR/FB) with six of them coming in back-to-back starts against the Mets. The .374 BABIP over that span seems a bit of a fluke as well, especially considering 45% soft contact in his last start.
Joe Ross has a .355 BABIP, 66 LOB% and 20.5 Hard% and deserved most of that until his last start, leaving a lot of pitches over the plate.
Trevor Bauer has a .354 BABIP, 65.3 LOB% and 20.0 HR/FB. While his peripherals are tremendous, we can’t trust his strikeout rate and he’s allowed a ton of hard contact.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Asher | BAL | 0.313 | 0.288 | -0.025 | 36.1% | 0.213 | 21.2% | 85.3% | 86 | 6.50% | 4.50% | 124 |
| Ben Lively | PHI | 0.303 | 0.277 | -0.026 | 46.8% | 0.191 | 18.8% | 95.0% | 84.4 | 4.30% | 3.60% | 47 |
| Brad Peacock | HOU | 0.292 | 0.297 | 0.005 | 46.7% | 0.173 | 11.1% | 77.4% | 86.6 | 1.30% | 0.70% | 75 |
| Buck Farmer | DET | 0.310 | 0.222 | -0.088 | 37.0% | 0.259 | 10.0% | 78.6% | ||||
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.275 | 0.280 | 0.005 | 48.8% | 0.199 | 3.0% | 88.2% | 86.4 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 216 |
| Christian Bergman | SEA | 0.280 | 0.277 | -0.003 | 39.3% | 0.171 | 15.7% | 88.4% | 88.3 | 8.30% | 6.30% | 120 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.282 | 0.251 | -0.031 | 45.6% | 0.204 | 10.4% | 82.6% | 85.5 | 6.50% | 4.30% | 231 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.303 | 0.345 | 0.042 | 58.2% | 0.227 | 4.2% | 89.0% | 85.7 | 4.70% | 3.60% | 258 |
| David Price | BOS | 0.318 | 0.205 | -0.113 | 35.4% | 0.208 | 14.3% | 88.2% | 81.3 | 10.40% | 6.90% | 48 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.276 | 0.281 | 0.005 | 38.7% | 0.196 | 4.7% | 87.6% | 89.2 | 9.80% | 6.80% | 205 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.307 | 0.308 | 0.001 | 45.7% | 0.204 | 5.1% | 86.9% | 86.5 | 9.50% | 7.10% | 242 |
| Jacob Faria | TAM | 0.292 | 0.188 | -0.104 | 50.0% | 0.313 | 0.0% | 73.3% | ||||
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.304 | 0.282 | -0.022 | 37.0% | 0.19 | 11.6% | 81.8% | 86.5 | 3.70% | 2.70% | 219 |
| JC Ramirez | ANA | 0.288 | 0.306 | 0.018 | 44.9% | 0.222 | 8.5% | 89.0% | 87.3 | 6.40% | 4.80% | 218 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.289 | 0.272 | -0.017 | 37.3% | 0.168 | 10.8% | 82.3% | 86.4 | 3.60% | 2.50% | 165 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.292 | 0.355 | 0.063 | 39.1% | 0.226 | 4.5% | 83.2% | 86.1 | 8.50% | 6.00% | 118 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.292 | 0.324 | 0.032 | 50.0% | 0.186 | 1.5% | 83.4% | 85.3 | 4.20% | 2.80% | 216 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.283 | 0.256 | -0.027 | 40.0% | 0.17 | 11.3% | 90.2% | 85.7 | 10.70% | 7.90% | 169 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.282 | 0.350 | 0.068 | 50.3% | 0.209 | 4.3% | 88.6% | 88.5 | 7.90% | 5.70% | 164 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.299 | 0.314 | 0.015 | 34.6% | 0.194 | 8.2% | 79.7% | 88.4 | 8.90% | 5.80% | 214 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | 0.291 | ||||||||||
| Nick Martinez | TEX | 0.279 | 0.261 | -0.018 | 43.2% | 0.179 | 12.7% | 89.1% | 86.8 | 8.50% | 6.90% | 164 |
| Paolo Espino | MIL | 0.307 | 0.296 | -0.011 | 44.4% | 0.222 | 0.0% | 93.2% | ||||
| R.A. Dickey | ATL | 0.283 | 0.273 | -0.01 | 51.1% | 0.186 | 15.3% | 88.0% | 84.4 | 5.30% | 4.00% | 243 |
| Scott Feldman | CIN | 0.279 | 0.295 | 0.016 | 44.2% | 0.282 | 12.3% | 87.4% | 83.7 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 215 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.311 | 0.354 | 0.043 | 46.1% | 0.206 | 10.9% | 87.2% | 90.2 | 11.80% | 7.40% | 169 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.305 | 0.260 | -0.045 | 50.7% | 0.191 | 7.7% | 88.9% | 86.3 | 4.50% | 3.80% | 220 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.285 | 0.257 | -0.028 | 58.4% | 0.206 | 2.2% | 88.5% | 85 | 5.10% | 3.40% | 217 |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.289 | 0.279 | -0.01 | 45.5% | 0.178 | 12.8% | 84.1% | 86.9 | 7.90% | 5.10% | 216 |
| Zack Wheeler | NYM | 0.318 | 0.305 | -0.013 | 48.6% | 0.226 | 9.8% | 85.4% | 86.7 | 6.70% | 4.50% | 179 |
Jon Lester is not getting pop-ups, but lots of weak contact otherwise. The expectation is for his BABIP to improve towards his .298 career rate.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Clayton Kershaw (1) transitions to a very positive run environment and faces a DH tonight, but is up against a team that has struggled against LHP, which is probably bad news for Cleveland (and everyone else) as he’s begun to dominate again.
Value Tier Two
Buck Farmer was running a strong minor league campaign this year before two excellent major league starts. He costs less than $7K against what appears to be a good offense, but their home/road splits skew things a bit. They have not performed well outside of Arizona.
Joe Ross threw a masterpiece last time out, doing exactly what he wanted to and dominating a decent, but under-performing offense this year. He faces a below average one tonight and could have similar results if he can throw strike one and locate efficiently again. If he’s fixed himself, he’ll still likely have issues against good LHBs, but $7.2K on DraftKings could be a bargain. Players just need to hope that the season and not his last outing is the aberration.
Value Tier Three
Brad Peacock crated in his last start because he couldn’t throw strike one. His previous three were strikeout dominant though and he faces the team he was most proficient against again at home. Fair amount of risk, but he’s shown immense upside too.
Clayton Richard isn’t generating ground balls on as much of contact, but is still among league leaders in that category with league average hard contact in a great park. He’s also missing a few more bats than earlier in the season, which makes him a bit more rosterable. His $5K cost on DraftKings makes him a reasonable compliment to top guys. I don’t think I’d use him at all for much more on FanDuel.
David Price ran into a buzz saw in Yankee Stadium last time out, but has otherwise looked good. He has a nice matchup at home against the Phillies tonight.
Zack Greinke (2) is in an interesting spot. He’s allowed hard contact with reduced velocity when he misses and the Tigers make hard contact more often than any other team in the majors. However, his SwStr% and K% are ridiculous and the Tigers will strike out too. He costs just $700 less than Kershaw on DraftKings though.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jon Lester has been struggling to prevent runs and get deep into games, but his peripherals and contact management paint a brighter picture. The Mets may be a bit better than their numbers against LHP with Cespedes back though.
Gerrit Cole may have been better than the results suggest in his last start, though he’s still not missing enough bats. There’s reason to believe this is a very favorable matchup at home tonight and he’s now down to $6.8K on DraftKings, where he could surprise as an SP2. He’s another I’d move off the board on FanDuel though ($8K).
Jacob Faria provides upside that may be more restricted by his workload than talent tonight. He’s reasonably $7.5K on DraftKings, but the lowest priced pitcher on the board on FanDuel ($5.5K). That many swings and misses automatically gets consideration no matter the rest of the circumstances at that price.
Trevor Bauer does have strong peripherals, though an untrustable strikeout rate with way too much hard contact. The Dodgers gain a DH and should be a more imposing offense. I’m not sure what to do with him here. I’d be inclined to omit him, but $6.5K seems like it could be a bit too cheap.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window