Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, April 27th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-04-28 02:50:00

As overloaded as yesterday’s star studded board was, today’s might be just the opposite, comprising a long list of pitchers where you’d just rather not. Odd for a Wednesday, we are one game short of a full night slate again, so we’ll skip any further rambling and quickly get to it.

New season changes to the article were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here, so we won’t repeat those again.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

Gio Gonzalez has struck out 16 of his last 52 batters and dominated the Phillies in one of those two starts. Very importantly, he’s walked just four batters in three starts. The pitch to ground ball contact experiment from last year seems to be over to the benefit of everyone. The Phillies have been especially atrocious vs LHPs (33.8 K%). They have shown a bit more power this year, but Gio excels at keeping the ball at park, especially at home. He’s had a HR/FB above 7% just once since 2012.

Jake Arrieta is coming off one of the less impressive no-hitters in memory. He walked four and struck out six and at one point there was a real question whether he’d throw more balls that strikes before going on a roll late. However, he threw 119 pitches and do you think Joe Madden knows this? I have some concern about his ability to go deep into this game or if they’ll be any hangover effects. My guess is he’ll be fine for as long as his manager allows him to pitch against Milwaukee’s 25.8 K% vs RHP.

Jeremy Hellickson has lasted a total of 7.1 innings over his last two starts, one against this Washington team, allowing three HRs. The hard contact (35.0%) is right where it’s been since 2013 and we might expect his 13.3 HR/FB from Arizona to be more of what we’d expect than his lower marks in Tampa Bay. However, there are some positive signs too, including a 13.0 SwStr% and there’s something in the pitch mix. He started throwing the curveball more often in June last season and saw his K% rise. It has the “(classname)2nd highest spin rate(title tooltip)”:http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-phillies-are-curveballing-their-way-into-the-future/ and 6th most vertical drop in baseball this year. The pitch he has cut down on the most is a fastball that gets the least whiffs. The junk (curve and change) are working to get him more strikeouts and should make him a formidable pitcher if his BABIP straightens out. Washington did beat him up previously, but they are not a strong lineup against RHP. Aside from Harper and Murphy, none of their regulars have a wRC+ above 90 against RHP since last season.

Jose Berrios is the 2nd ranked prospect in a deep Minnesota farm system according to Fangraphs, with three above average pitches and good command. He dominated double and triple A last year and was on his way to dominating again this year with a 30.3 K% through three starts. Walks are up too, but his control was fine last year in a much larger sample. This youngster looks like the real deal and I’m not saying he won’t struggle by considering him today. In fact, I expect Cleveland to make him work and the do have some power (15.1 HR/FB vs RHP). I’m saying the rest of the board is a pile of hot garbage and I’m more willing to gamble on his upside than more known quantities that have a lesser chance of working out and Cleveland does strike out more than average.

Jose Quintana is infuriating today because he’s the pitcher I want to use. My eyes lit up when I saw his name and then couldn’t immediately understand why he rated so poorly until I saw Toronto across the page. This absolutely sucks. He’s not Sale, who did his normal work against the Blue Jays yesterday and normally, we would be reluctant to consider all but the most elite lefties in Toronto, but these appear to be special circumstances today. The good news is that the Jays appear a bit more vulnerable to LHP this year with a few more strikeouts. The bad news is that’s because they’ve faced some good LHP in a still small sample. From the pitcher’s end, everything looks in line under the hood except a few things we’ll cover in the ERA section below. He just seems to get better every year with marginal increases in his K-BB% each season since his debut.

Josh Tomlin has pitched well at reduced velocity in two starts this year. It’s just two starts though, so I’m not going to over-analyze anything else below. I’m not sure he’s entirely healthy, making just two starts and exiting one early, but I’m not entirely sure he’s not either. His K-BB% has become borderline elite the last couple of years, though the end results haven’t really always shown up in his ERA, not that he can stay on the field long enough for us to figure it out either. He has a marginal matchup in Minnesota with the Twins striking out 23.7% vs RHP.

Justin Verlander has struck out 18 of his last 52 batters, but has allowed four HRs too. HRs have never really been a problem, even during his recent downfall years. Walk are up, but it’s been exactly two in every start. He’s also allowing a ton of hard contact (17.0 Hard-Soft%). I’m not sure what to think. Velocity is steady with last season except for one start which drags his overall number down. Oakland seems a perfectly neutral opponent, but doesn’t strike out much.

Matt Harvey did not look entirely fixed in Atlanta, but it was the Braves, so he mostly got away with it. Velocity is down, but was really only out of whack late in the Cleveland game. His SwStr% is way down, but still league average, suggesting a much higher K% than his actual current rate. His hard hit rate is right at his career number (25-26%) and in fact, his weak contact (30.7%) is way up along with one of the lowest aEVs in the league (85.12 mph). There are at least some positive signs and another might be a weak Cincinnati offense still down two marginal, but middle of the order hitters (Bruce & Phillips). They’ve been pretty terrible against RHP even with those two guys.

Matt Moore stumbled all over my enthusiasm in his last start, being roughed up by the Yankees in New York, but didn’t look absolutely terrible. He’s still striking out more batters and walking less, although a closer examination of his Zone% and F-Strike% show no real improvement and that could be a concern down the line. The Orioles are a powerful offense, but trade in a great park for a much worse run environment tonight. They have some swing and miss in their game and have just a 3.4 HR/FB over the last week.

Sonny Gray keeps popping up on those says where I’m nearly forced to more seriously him despite lacking the upside more pitchers in his price range normally exhibit. He continues to locate well and induce ground balls, though a bit less on the weak contact part so far. He’s not at home, but Detroit plays fairly neutral and at least he seems to be catching them at the right time.

Steven Wright has an 85.4 LOB% that won’t continue, but he has consistently missed bats in the double digit rate through three starts and faces Atlanta tonight. I won’t try to analyze his knuckleball further.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)

Marco Estrada (.367 BABIP – 85.4 LOB% – 4.5 HR/FB) had a .216 BABIP last year, which was equally ridiculous. All of these numbers are ridiculous. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher, who has a history of giving up a ton of HRs prior to last year. I’m not sure I’m buying his current K% either as he’s established a lower career one with a higher SwStr%. A drop in K% would further hurt his ERA. The White Sox have been hitting the ball well and have a 3.3 K-BB% over the last week. I’m more neutral towards him for $1.5K on DK, where I might be inclined to include him towards the end of Tier Four below.

Nicholas Tropeano (.319 BABIP -_87.0 LOB% – 0.0 HR/FB_) has shown some upside in his SwStr% through three starts, but not enough to completely buy into yet and the Royals do not often swing and miss. This is not a great spot for a fly ball pitcher (0.44 GB/FB) with a 17.0 Hard-Soft% thus far. How hasn’t he allowed a HR yet?

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Now, actually in actual order as described above and not alphabetical as one astute reader pointed out yesterday.

Jonathan Gray got 12 swings and misses, striking out 10 Dodgers at home in his first start of the season. They still did their damage with two HRs. I have to be careful to not over-value that single performance against another good offense, although he might have enough talent to break through the Coors wall and generate positive value consistently at home, but he’s going to need more than a fastball/slider combination to do it. It should be interesting with the Pirates leaning heavily right-handed, though he hasn’t shown any particular skill at consistently getting RHBs out with that pitch mix.

Hisashi Iwakuma was worth the HR troubles when he was at least striking out a league average rate of batters and not walking anyway. That seems to have stopped somewhere just past the mid-point of last season. With a K-BB% nearly cut in half, you can’t pay the same price. Houston may further enhance both his strikeout and HR rate tonight.

Collin McHugh has looked good in two starts and terrible in two independent from actual runs allowed. He’s allowed a lot of runs, but hasn’t even been hit that hard overall (19.7 Hard%, 86.73 mph aEV). He’s not walking anybody. He’s not getting as many strikeouts, but the SwStr% is average. I don’t care that his velocity is down a mile per hour because he rarely throws a normal fastball. Watching the Yankee start that lasted less than an inning and he was slightly BABIPed, but has that been the case in all of his starts? Fly balls are up, ground balls are down, but again, it’s not like they’re getting hit hard. It’s kind of stunning and I want to say there’s no discernable reason for this and his BABIP is ridiculous, which it is, but this is just a giant mess and I can’t figure out why. It’s tough to pay his asking price after the numbers he’s put up, but there’s nothing I can find that says it won’t get better.

Patrick Corbin has a tough matchup in a tough park.

Martin Perez

Chris Young struck out 10 over his first three starts and matched that in his last start alone. The thing is, I’m not even sure it’s a fluke. His velocity is up a mile per hour for the third consecutive year, though still just 87.5, but he’s had at least a 9.7 SwStr% in all four starts. His 0.81 GB/FB is actually the most ground ball heavy he’s ever been and nearly twice his career rate (0.48). His 14.8 HR/FB is also a career high rate and nearly twice his career rate (8.2). There’s something going on here, but I’m not sure what it is or what it means, so I don’t know what to do about. The guy with a history of beating his estimators is now running two runs behind them. And now, of course, the Angels have scored at least four runs in four straight games with the zombies surrounding Mike Trout in the lineup suddenly coming back to life. Stay tuned. I’m curious to see what happens here.

Scott Kazmir may be injured, though one positive sign is the 2nd lowest aEV on today’s board behind Harvey (85.27 mph)

Jon Niese might make you stop to consider, at $4.9K on DK, how terrible the Rockies are against LHP. Don’t do it man. Put that clicking finger down and think about it.

C.C. Sabathia

Chris Tillman did push the velocity back up a tick again and does have a double digit SwStr% in three of four starts, but with just 18.1 innings to go on and no real consistency in performance from start to start, I feel the need to defer to his history. He has an ERA over four with a 4.8 HR/FB and career rate of twice that. He has a long enough track record of disappointment where I’d prefer to err towards caution.

Bud Norris

Adam Wainwright continues to be a complete mess with no more than six innings pitched or less than three ERs in any of his four starts with a high of three strikeouts (8.7 K%).

Justin Nicolino is a soft tossing lefty who does not miss bats or get ground balls or induce a lot of pop ups or generate a lot of weak contact. Why is he in the majors again?

Jon Moscot should get torched no matter what version of the Mets he faces (minus d’Arnaud, Cespedes, and/or even Wright). The powerful left-handed heart of the order should remain intact.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 19.5 K% – 9.3 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

Matt Harvey has struggled to put the ball where he wants it, especially with two strikes, but his SwStr% is still league average and I’d expect a significant increase in his K%.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.07 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.03 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Gio Gonzalez – This shouldn’t surprise you. He’s never run estimators below three, but it’s still a great start. The Washington defense has been surprisingly capable and he has shown all of the indicators favoring a low BABIP through three starts. The 5.0 HR/FB is something he’s been around three of the last four years. The only thing that’s badly off is the 83.3 LOB% well above his career rate (73.6%).

Jake Arrieta exceeded his estimators by a wide margin last year too. Nobody really believes he’s this good I hope. His strikeout rate has slightly dipped, his BABIP is 70 points below his .246 mark last year and he has stranded 98.9% of his runners. The contact management continues to be excellent (-6.5 Hard-Soft%) for a third straight year and the Cubs have a good defense so maybe there is something abnormal occurring that could favor some BABIP suppression as he even has a .269 career rate, but I hesitate to give him credit for anything too far from his career mark.

Jeremy Hellickson probably lies somewhere closer to his FIP than other estimators, but should certainly be much better than his ERA. I can’t give him credit for his .275 career BABIP because he’s not playing in front of an elite Tampa Bay defense anymore in a great park and has been allowing much harder contact for a few years now. Let’s call that around .300 and push his 65.4 LOB% closer to average as well. I’d also expect his HR rate to stay above average, but regress a bit from 17.4%. If he retains the strikeout rate, which I think he can, we’re looking at something near a league average pitcher.

Jose Quintana is allowing a bit more contact this season and it seems to be showing up in his LD% and BABIP because he hasn’t allowed a HR yet (though that stands a good chance of changing tonight). He’s established some ability to suppress HRs (8.3 career HR/FB), but does have a .308 career BABIP. The Chicago defense looks improved, but perhaps as his LD% normalizes, the defense regresses upwards as well, leaving him close to where he normally is. A couple of other BABIP things to mention quickly. He’s already 25% of the way to his 2015 IFFB total and his Z-Contact% through four starts is well below his 88.9% career rate, so perhaps there’s some additional upside this year. If these things continue along with the higher K%, it could be a special year for him.

Justin Verlander has allowed five long balls and we’ve already mentioned that’s not been historically an issue either in good times or bad. He does generally do the things that lead to some BABIP suppression, but has been at exactly .317 two of the previous three years now, so I don’t know if that skill still exists, but the underlying indicators appear strong early on.

Matt Harvey has a 5.0 HR/FB that is not so far below his career 7.7 mark so far, though even that’s still not yet a sample size large enough to be entirely trusted, especially if he’s no longer that same pitcher. It seems as if all of his hard contact is manifesting itself through LD rate and BABIP. The Mets defense is atrocious, but even they should improve greatly off that team BABIP and as mentioned above, he’s generating a ton of weak contact, which should bode better for him. A 63.6 LOB% may be more prime for regression.

Sonny Gray isn’t really doing the whole BABIP suppression thing as much as usual. The 79.5 LOB% is still a bit high.

Steven Wright – We’ve already mentioned the abnormally high strand rate, but he’s allowed just one HR as well.

BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 21.1 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.7 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

We’ve already touched on several pitchers above.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings, especially on our first day of doing so today. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

Value Tier One

Gio Gonzalez – Does it scare you as much as it does me that this is where most of my confidence lies tonight? He’s been about as good as we’ve ever seen him early on and is in a great spot tonight for under $10K. It says more about the cast of pitchers surrounding him than him that he’s this high though, as on a normal day or yesterday for instance, he’d probably find himself around the top of Tier Three. We’re grading on the curve today. Everybody gets pulled up.

Value Tier Two

Jake Arrieta is still my top pitcher tonight in a great spot, but not by so much ahead of Gonzalez because after throwing a lot of pitches in a no-hitter I do have some concern how long he’ll last and slightly less about a possible hangover effect at a cost $3-4K higher than every other pitcher.

Jeremy Hellickson is not in Arrieta’s league and carries far more risk, but for less than half the price, I believe he stands a good chance of putting up half the expected performance (or at least a wide range of potential outcomes averages out about there), generating equal value.

Jose Quintana – The good news is everything about him looks like he might continue getting even better. The bad news is a high priced lefty vs Toronto. To be honest, he might show up as a viable option even on a normal day considering all of the current and historical numbers, just likely a couple of tiers lower. He might be that good now.

Sonny Gray is expensive without the upside a pitcher in his price range generally exhibits (hey, I think I said this already), but finds himself once again pitching on a day with many lesser pitchers where he needs to be considered.

Steven Wright – The numbers don’t really buy in as much and see a lot of what he used to be, but he’s missing bats, he’s facing Atlanta, and he’s fairly cheap. Those last two things might bet most pitchers all the way up to Tier Three just by themselves. Who knows though? Maybe we’ll find the knuckleball is the only thing Atlanta can hit.

Value Tier Three

Jose Berrios is only available on DraftKings and not at the standard debuting price. He’s got real talent in that arm, but is by no means a sure thing in his first attempt against major league hitting. Thankfully, it doesn’t look like the Twins have forced him to pitch to contact in the minors and, as said above, with so few viable choices today, I’d rather take a chance on his upside than mess around with some just as risky known propositions with less potential.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Matt Harvey is expensive and I don’t believe him to be “fixed”, but there are some positive signs and the Reds, minus two middle of the order bats potentially, should be awful in a difficult run environment.

Josh Tomlin generally falls off the end on a better, but it’s not, so we have to deal with the options we’ve been handed. I’m not sure that he’s done enough in his career to deserve a higher than average price tag either, but there seems to be some upside in this arm still.

Matt Moore – I was perhaps a bit too high on him a bit too quickly last time and there is some concern in his plate discipline profile even though the walks are way down so far. Baltimore poses a threat, but is slumping and he has the benefit of a pitcher friendly run environment tonight.

Justin Verlander – I want to pass, but he has struck out a few more batters recently, so I guess he has a chance of being worth the cost or at least more of one than most pitchers tonight. I’m not sure what I expect from him tonight though.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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