Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, June 28th
Similar to yesterday, there are a lot of useful arms on the main slate despite lacking many true Aces. Most or maybe even all of these pitchers are the higher cost guys today too unfortunately, both those cheaper gems show up less often the deeper we get into the season and rarely without the appearance of obvious flaws.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 3.9 | 5.39 | 4.52 | 43.3% | 1.13 | 6.03 | 6.3 | BOS | 96 | 104 | 94 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.8 | 4.4 | 5.78 | 45.2% | 1.13 | 4.32 | 4.95 | ARI | 114 | 106 | 109 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -1.5 | 4.77 | 4.58 | 42.7% | 0.91 | 4.16 | 3.08 | LOS | 93 | 109 | 129 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | -0.6 | 4.42 | 5.74 | 43.6% | 0.91 | 4.89 | SDG | 84 | 83 | 69 | |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.5 | 4.84 | 4.85 | 38.3% | 0.97 | 4.46 | PIT | 90 | 82 | 61 | |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.3 | 3.97 | 5.93 | 44.5% | 0.98 | 3.72 | NYY | 102 | 94 | 82 | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -3.4 | 4.41 | 5.3 | 37.4% | 1.02 | 4.55 | 3.97 | CIN | 107 | 102 | 99 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 2.6 | 4.26 | 5.2 | 40.4% | 0.98 | 4.33 | 4.01 | KAN | 85 | 79 | 82 |
| David Paulino | HOU | -1.9 | 4.49 | 4.67 | 36.2% | 0.94 | 5.14 | 4.34 | OAK | 87 | 104 | 118 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 7.9 | 4.1 | 6.17 | 51.9% | 0.89 | 4.13 | 3.69 | PHI | 72 | 82 | 85 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 2 | 4.27 | 5.17 | 46.5% | 0.91 | 4.68 | 4.48 | ANA | 104 | 88 | 88 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.8 | 4.18 | 5.75 | 34.7% | 0.98 | 4.86 | 5.25 | DET | 117 | 96 | 101 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -6.8 | 4.09 | 5.93 | 51.4% | 0.97 | 3.8 | 4.33 | TAM | 100 | 116 | 135 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.6 | 4.63 | 5.5 | 49.0% | 0.94 | 4.46 | 4.58 | NYM | 118 | 104 | 147 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -14.2 | 4.94 | 5.18 | 47.4% | 0.94 | 4.74 | 6.21 | HOU | 117 | 124 | 131 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.3 | 3.89 | 6.4 | 44.2% | 1.01 | 3.88 | 5.06 | WAS | 119 | 111 | 127 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 1.1 | 4.93 | 5.81 | 58.5% | 0.93 | 5.55 | 4.93 | SFO | 73 | 82 | 91 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 10.3 | 6.17 | 5. | 75.0% | 1.02 | 6.17 | MIL | 95 | 97 | 105 | |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | -9.1 | 4.03 | 5.76 | 60.9% | 0.91 | 4.18 | 4.81 | ATL | 96 | 93 | 82 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.3 | 3.63 | 6.34 | 60.5% | 1.03 | 3.51 | 4.06 | BAL | 94 | 96 | 99 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 2.4 | 5.39 | 6. | 53.5% | 0.89 | 5.48 | 3.92 | SEA | 112 | 107 | 106 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.8 | 3.74 | 6.29 | 48.0% | 0.98 | 3.94 | 2.38 | CHW | 97 | 83 | 77 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.7 | 3.78 | 6.47 | 42.4% | 1.13 | 4.01 | 4.24 | MIN | 91 | 98 | 62 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0 | 3.03 | 6.28 | 41.5% | 1.01 | 3.34 | 4.56 | CHC | 89 | 88 | 81 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.5 | 3.68 | 6.06 | 0.492 | 0.94 | 3.5 | 4.34 | MIA | 91 | 99 | 33 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -4.5 | 4.13 | 5.86 | 0.466 | 1.09 | 3.89 | 4.18 | TEX | 82 | 97 | 105 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.6 | 5.1 | 6.07 | 0.486 | 0.93 | 4.78 | 5.42 | COL | 82 | 85 | 26 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | -2.7 | 4.27 | 5.68 | 0.493 | 1.03 | 4.23 | 4.88 | TOR | 94 | 96 | 105 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 4.5 | 3.48 | 6.09 | 0.409 | 1.09 | 3.47 | 2.23 | CLE | 100 | 104 | 91 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | -7.4 | 4.01 | 5.59 | 0.54 | 1.13 | 4.12 | 3.13 | STL | 90 | 98 | 89 |
Daniel Norris does a great job missing bats, but has some contact issues (88.4 mph aEV, 41.1 Hard%). He is in a great spot against a Kansas City offense with a 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP and 5.5 HR/FB over the last week, which should allow the swing and miss stuff to play better. Despite an increase in walk rate in June (10.2%), he has a 16.3 K-BB% over four starts.
Marcus Stroman has consistently been within four to six strikeouts in each of his last seven starts with exactly five in four. Perhaps a bit more interesting is a SwStr above 13% in each of his last three starts and above 12% in five of his last six. All this while he’s sustained a 60.3 GB%. One of his flaws in the past had been a lack of strikeout consistency. Another is that he doesn’t really limit hard contact all that much (31.2 Hard%, 38.4% 95+ mph EV, 88.3 mph aEV), driving his BABIP above .300. Hard ground balls are usually only singles, but are more difficult to turn into outs. He’s in somewhat of a neutral spot at home against an under-performing Baltimore offense that has begun to juggle the offense recently. They area also a bottom offense with an 83 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers.
Masahiro Tanaka has struck out 27 of his last 76 batters. He did not allow a run in his last start, but four HRs in the previous two, so I’m not sure we can call that issue solved, but the upside is now significant enough that he’s worth the risk. The SwStr% has been elite all along, but now he’s generating the strikeouts that go with it. He just has to begin generating more ground balls and weaker contact again, like he did in his last start. He’s in a great spot in Chicago tonight, against a White Sox offense with average power, but a 17.0 K-BB% vs RHP.
Stephen Strasburg went on a strikeout fury for about a month (five starts), but has struck out just 10 of his last 50 batters and has now allowed at least five runs in two of his last three. This was supposed to be the season he finally showed some consistency. It seems you still have to take the bad sometimes along with the good with him. On the season, he’s still just one of nine pitchers with a 20+ K-BB (20.7%) with around average contact management. His Hard and Soft rates on Fangraphs are a bit better than his Statcast numbers. The Cubs have been a favorable matchup on the road against RHP. They strike out a bit more than average with a bit less power than average.
Steven Matz struck out eight of his 26 Dodgers last time out with his highest SwStr rate of the season, though that was still just 7.5%. He has still yet to throw a slider in three starts, though there were a couple of unclassified pitches in his last start. He generated a 53.8 GB% last time out too, his first time above 50% after a 51.1% rate last year. He’s in a favorable spot tonight against one of the coldest offenses in the league over the last week (17.8 K-BB%, 1.5 Hard-Soft%), though they did put up six runs last night, though only three against a poor Mets bullpen after the first inning. They have an 18.6 HR/FB vs LHP despite just a 4.7 Hard-Soft% and a power suppressing park.
Trevor Bauer has a 42.2% 95+ mph EV that’s highest on the board. He allows a lot of hard contact (37.8%) and his SwStr rate does not support his K%, but he has now been at least at 9% in each of his last three starts. I still can’t predict what he’s going to do on a start to start basis, his starts are all over the place, but the Rangers are an over-rated offense with a lot of swing and miss in their bats (27.6 K% on the road, 24.1 K% vs RHP, 31.6 K% over the last week).
Yu Darvish has been having a down year by his standards, at least until last week when he threw seven shutout innings at the Yankees on the road, striking out 10 without a walk. In fact, he’s walked one or less in four of five June starts now with a 30.6 K% over the last month. He’s also gone at least seven innings in three of his last four starts and has his K-BB up to 18%. He travels to face another difficult offense in a difficult park in Cleveland tonight.
Zack Godley has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters and has had an elite SwStr rate since the call up. He’s been above 11% in eight of nine starts overall with a 59.9 GB%, though he hasn’t been below that in four straight starts. He still has a 52.3 GB% in those four starts though. Facing a near average offense, he does get assessed a bit of a penalty for his home park, especially if he’s going to be generating fewer ground balls, but not so much if he’s making up for those with strikeouts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Chase Anderson (.274 – 78.7% – 7.9) had a run of three straight starts without a run and at least seven innings pitched to end May, start June. He’s allowed five runs in his last 13 innings, striking out 13 of 49 batters, but also allowing three HRs against San Diego and Pittsburgh as his HR rate begins to regress. His contact management has been exceptional (84.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 26.1% 95+ mph EV), while his strikeouts have spiked nearly five points above last year (23.3%). He’s facing a decent and well balanced offense at a high price. I’m still not sure he can consistently cover a cost above $9K. I’d probably like him for $500 to $1K less.
NOTE For more on Chase Anderson, which there wasn’t enough time to go into this morning, check out the DFS Alerts link at the top of the page. Hint: It has to do with throwing more cutters to RHBs.
Ivan Nova (.274 – 78.1% – 12.0) does not miss enough bats to get away with a much above average strand rate (73.9% career). He walks nobody. He’s in a tough spot without much upside against an offense with a lot of power (19.0 HR/FB vs RHP).
Ian Kennedy (.205 – 67.8% – 14.6)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Blake Snell struck out at least seven in all seven minor league starts after being sent down and eight or more in all but one. Importantly, after citing “changes in his delivery”https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=12189, he walked just 8% of batters he faced. He’s run that walk rate at AAA before in exactly the same amount of innings (44) in 2015, but it didn’t hold last year. He’s not going to say he didn’t do anything. The Pirates struggle against LHP, but do have a 10.2 BB%. If the control improvement is real, this is a dynamic arm in a great park for a LHP at a low price. It’s a chance some players may want to take, but I’d like to see it in the majors first.
Luis Perdomo may be fine in a good spot at home against the powerless Braves. He can probably be useful in an SP2 spot on DraftKings for $1.7K less than his FanDuel cost. He has an elite ground ball rate (65.1%) and misses enough bats (19.4 K%), but a few less over the last month and sometimes gets BABIP’d without the best defense behind him. The Braves don’t strike out a lot and actually have a 111 sOPS+ (ninth) against GB pitchers.
Rick Porcello projects much better than his ERA with a 16.7 K-BB% that’s not much below last season, though the strikeouts are down below league average over the last month, while HRs and hard contact are up. He’s allowed multiple HRs in three of five June starts with a hard contact rate above 44% in four of five. He’s in a somewhat neutral spot in a tough park against a slumping Minnesota offense. He has gone at least six innings in 15 of 16 starts this season and is coming off his best effort of the month last time out (6.1 IP – 1 ER – 8K). He costs just $6.8K on DraftKings, where he might be worth an SP2 flyer, along with the guys above.
Alex Myers has a 14.6 BB%. It’s a wonder how he ever gets through more than five innings. In June, his 2.77 ERA is backed by an 80.8% strand rate. The Dodgers have a 10.7 BB% vs RHP and 16.5 BB% over the last week.
Hyun-Jin Ryu has a 13.8 K-BB% and is in a decent spot on the road against the Angels, but they don’t strike out a lot against LHP. He also rarely goes more than five innings and the strikeout upside is not that high that he can often overcome workload limitations at an average cost, especially with a HR problem, though the overall contact hasn’t been that bad.
John Lackey has struck out just nine of his last 68 batters and finds himself in one of the worst spots on the board in Washington.
Carlos Rodon makes his season debut after recovering from a biceps issue. He faces a banged up Yankee team that has actually been below average vs LHP (23.5 K%), but this is another team that takes it’s walk (10.7 BB%) against a pitcher who has control issues. He’s walked nine of 82 batters in four rehab starts, striking out just 17 (9.7 K-BB%).
Wade Miley has a 55.3 GB% over his last nine starts, but also just a 6.2 SwStr%.
David Paulino has an impressive 17.6 K-BB% through five major league starts, but with just a 9.0 SwStr% and an 89.2 mph aEV (25.0 Hard-Soft%). Oakland has a 25.0 K% vs RHP, but also has some pop (14.8 HR/FB vs RHP).
Luis Castillo generated a 21.4 K-BB% in 14 starts, but at AA this season, a league he was a bit old for. He’s been traded for Andrew Cashner (aborted) and Dan Straily by the Marlins already at just 24 years-old. Fangraphs grades him the 10th best prospect in the system with a 45 grade, but can’t really project his future with confidence, forecasting anything from middle of the rotation upside to bullpen. That’s sometimes the case with these guys who shine below AAA at advanced ages. That’s what was written here prior to his major league debut, in which he survived five innings in Washington, allowing just two runs with five strikeouts (22 BF), but also walking five. He’s in a more neutral spot tonight against a high strikeout Milwaukee offense (24.6 K% vs RHP), but they also have a 19.1 HR/FB vs RHP and he’s not as much of an unknown anymore with a cost that’s gone up slightly.
Jeff Locke hasn’t completed five innings in three of his five starts, walking more than he’s struck out in two of them (both against the Cubs). The Mets are the hottest offense in the majors by wRC+ over the last week.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 18.2% | 12.7% | Road | 15.4% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 17.8% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.5% | Road | 18.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 7.5% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 25.7% | 14.9% | Home | 25.3% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 7.7% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 15.6% | 4.2% | Road | 12.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 22.4% | 12.9% | Road | 20.4% | 11.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.8% | Home | 24.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.7% | Road | 19.8% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 4.1% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 7.9% | Home | 23.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 20.4% | 7.3% | Home | 19.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.0% | Home | 19.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 3.9% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.3% | Road | 20.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 9.1% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.4% | Road | 21.5% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.8% | 4.7% | Home | 17.3% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 6.9% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.4% | 7.8% | Home | 15.8% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 10.3% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 15.7% | 9.1% | Road | 15.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.6% | 6.8% | Road | 23.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.6% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 13.8% | 9.1% | Road | 11.7% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 8.8% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 22.7% | 22.7% | Home | L14 Days | 22.7% | 22.7% | ||
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 17.0% | 7.6% | Home | 15.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 14.6% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.2% | Home | 18.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 16.4% | 14.4% | Road | 15.4% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 4.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.3% | 4.9% | Road | 19.1% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 38.8% | 6.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.0% | Home | 21.6% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 3.6% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 6.4% | Home | 29.7% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.0% | Road | 22.6% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 9.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 22.4% | 9.0% | Home | 22.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 7.5% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 11.3% | 5.5% | Home | 11.9% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 5.3% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.4% | 8.3% | Road | 17.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.5% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 29.3% | 8.2% | Road | 29.9% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 2.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.4% | Home | 19.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 32.0% | 8.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 17.2% | 9.6% | LH | 16.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.9% | 9.3% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 23.1% | 10.8% | RH | 23.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.7% | 8.5% | RH | 25.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 10.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.5% | 9.2% | LH | 20.5% | 10.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 22.1% | 9.1% | LH | 23.5% | 10.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.7% |
| Reds | Home | 21.6% | 8.5% | RH | 20.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.9% |
| Royals | Road | 21.6% | 6.3% | LH | 18.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 6.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 25.4% | 8.5% | RH | 25.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 10.2% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.5% | 7.2% | RH | 23.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.9% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Home | 17.9% | 7.7% | LH | 19.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 6.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.0% | 9.0% | RH | 23.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.5% | 6.3% |
| Rays | Road | 26.6% | 9.1% | RH | 25.1% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.7% |
| Mets | Road | 20.1% | 9.3% | LH | 22.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.9% | 10.4% |
| Astros | Home | 17.0% | 7.8% | RH | 17.7% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 9.2% | RH | 19.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.4% |
| Giants | Home | 19.7% | 6.6% | LH | 19.4% | 7.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 7.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.4% | 8.7% | RH | 24.6% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.2% | 7.5% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.0% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.3% | 6.5% | RH | 22.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.9% | 9.7% | RH | 21.6% | 8.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 9.9% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.9% | 8.0% | RH | 23.0% | 6.3% | L7Days | 25.1% | 5.8% |
| Twins | Road | 21.9% | 8.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 25.7% | 6.4% |
| Cubs | Road | 22.8% | 10.1% | RH | 22.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.7% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.1% | 8.0% | LH | 20.1% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 4.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 27.6% | 8.1% | RH | 24.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 9.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.7% | 7.8% | LH | 24.5% | 6.7% | L7Days | 26.3% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.9% | 8.1% | LH | 20.8% | 10.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.5% |
| Indians | Home | 18.8% | 9.6% | RH | 20.0% | 9.2% | L7Days | 17.7% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.0% | 8.5% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 35.3% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 2017 | 34.8% | 17.3% | 12.3% | Road | 35.5% | 13.0% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 22.2% | 3.3% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.6% | 12.0% | 10.9% | 2017 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 7.9% | Road | 32.1% | 19.4% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 35.8% | 10.1% | 18.9% | 2017 | 33.9% | 11.1% | 16.6% | Home | 32.1% | 7.9% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 25.0% | 29.2% |
| Bartolo Colon | Braves | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 2017 | 33.0% | 15.1% | 11.9% | Road | 36.1% | 12.4% | 21.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 2017 | 35.4% | 13.0% | 16.2% | Road | 32.0% | 7.1% | 14.3% | L14 Days | |||
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.1% | 13.1% | 9.3% | 2017 | Home | 25.7% | 12.7% | 11.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 2017 | 33.1% | 7.9% | 14.3% | Road | 34.7% | 14.3% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 14.3% | 21.9% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.9% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 2017 | 41.1% | 8.9% | 23.3% | Home | 39.4% | 15.3% | 24.1% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 6.7% | 6.1% |
| David Paulino | Astros | L2 Years | 33.7% | 8.9% | 20.0% | 2017 | 36.1% | 11.4% | 25.0% | Home | 39.3% | 13.3% | 28.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 6.3% | 30.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.5% | 16.3% | 12.3% | 2017 | 29.4% | 28.6% | 12.9% | Home | 31.6% | 16.1% | 16.8% | L14 Days | 47.4% | 33.3% | 31.6% |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | L2 Years | 35.1% | 21.1% | 15.7% | 2017 | 34.3% | 21.5% | 13.7% | Road | 35.4% | 9.4% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 16.7% | 23.4% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.1% | 13.5% | 20.8% | 2017 | 39.5% | 14.6% | 24.8% | Road | 34.5% | 14.6% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 16.7% | 30.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.3% | 14.9% | 15.3% | 2017 | 32.1% | 12.0% | 15.1% | Home | 31.4% | 12.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 30.0% | 21.4% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.6% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 2017 | 30.8% | 12.5% | 14.1% | Home | 30.2% | 11.1% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 28.6% | 7.1% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.0% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 2017 | 30.1% | 4.8% | 10.7% | Road | 28.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 20.0% | 30.8% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 33.0% | 15.3% | 16.5% | 2017 | 36.5% | 21.9% | 20.9% | Road | 36.2% | 17.4% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 22.2% | -3.0% |
| Kyle Freeland | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.4% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 2017 | 32.4% | 13.0% | 10.3% | Road | 35.7% | 14.6% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 11.1% | -2.1% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 41.7% | 66.7% | 33.4% | 2017 | 41.7% | 66.7% | 33.4% | Home | L14 Days | 41.7% | 66.7% | 33.4% | |||
| Luis Perdomo | Padres | L2 Years | 33.8% | 21.5% | 16.6% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.9% | 15.0% | Home | 34.4% | 17.3% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 41.9% | 40.0% | 16.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.8% | 17.6% | 11.3% | 2017 | 31.2% | 20.3% | 10.4% | Home | 32.2% | 13.9% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 48.6% | 50.0% | 31.5% |
| Mark Leiter | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.2% | 9.5% | -2.8% | 2017 | 22.2% | 9.5% | -2.8% | Road | 26.1% | 12.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 6.7% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.8% | 16.5% | 14.5% | 2017 | 34.4% | 24.1% | 17.0% | Road | 31.8% | 14.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 37.5% | 29.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.3% | 11.4% | 17.4% | 2017 | 43.2% | 11.9% | 25.9% | Home | 35.9% | 7.8% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 47.6% | 11.1% | 30.9% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.1% | 11.4% | 5.5% | 2017 | 28.4% | 11.6% | 8.2% | Home | 30.1% | 13.9% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 10.0% | 18.2% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 29.2% | 14.5% | 9.3% | 2017 | 35.5% | 21.7% | 22.6% | Road | 26.7% | 9.8% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 44.7% | 41.7% | 31.5% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 33.3% | 14.1% | 15.2% | 2017 | 37.8% | 17.8% | 23.1% | Home | 34.3% | 17.6% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 11.1% | 16.0% |
| Ty Blach | Giants | L2 Years | 30.7% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 2017 | 30.9% | 9.0% | 11.4% | Home | 29.3% | 3.6% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 12.5% | 8.1% |
| Wade Miley | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.9% | 14.7% | 12.2% | 2017 | 33.6% | 16.7% | 13.6% | Road | 35.9% | 16.3% | 18.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.4% | 13.1% | 11.2% | 2017 | 32.8% | 14.3% | 15.2% | Road | 25.8% | 10.5% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 14.3% | 22.2% |
| Zack Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 31.1% | 16.4% | 13.0% | 2017 | 30.0% | 12.9% | 8.7% | Home | 38.6% | 21.8% | 26.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 38.0% | 9.0% | 20.7% | LH | 33.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 37.1% | 18.5% | 20.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 39.0% | 17.0% | 26.0% | RH | 36.4% | 15.9% | 19.6% | L7Days | 33.7% | 10.7% | 17.9% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 12.5% | 17.3% | RH | 35.0% | 15.2% | 20.2% | L7Days | 36.7% | 17.6% | 16.8% |
| Padres | Home | 27.9% | 12.9% | 5.5% | RH | 28.4% | 14.7% | 5.7% | L7Days | 24.0% | 11.4% | -4.9% |
| Pirates | Home | 29.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | LH | 28.5% | 11.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 28.1% | 11.1% | 9.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 31.2% | 13.0% | 12.8% | LH | 29.9% | 13.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 27.5% | 13.6% | 6.1% |
| Reds | Home | 29.4% | 16.5% | 8.0% | RH | 29.5% | 14.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 34.6% | 12.5% | 16.4% |
| Royals | Road | 32.2% | 15.1% | 13.1% | LH | 30.3% | 10.7% | 10.6% | L7Days | 28.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Athletics | Road | 36.3% | 11.9% | 17.9% | RH | 34.6% | 14.8% | 18.1% | L7Days | 35.7% | 17.0% | 15.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.5% | 10.4% | 7.1% | RH | 29.7% | 10.1% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 7.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.6% | 13.7% | 10.1% | LH | 30.6% | 8.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 29.2% | 8.2% | 10.7% |
| Tigers | Home | 48.8% | 13.9% | 35.2% | RH | 42.4% | 12.1% | 27.0% | L7Days | 44.2% | 12.1% | 21.5% |
| Rays | Road | 35.3% | 17.7% | 16.7% | RH | 37.3% | 19.0% | 20.5% | L7Days | 43.5% | 17.0% | 28.2% |
| Mets | Road | 37.7% | 16.8% | 20.2% | LH | 35.2% | 12.8% | 13.8% | L7Days | 37.4% | 15.0% | 18.4% |
| Astros | Home | 29.7% | 16.2% | 11.6% | RH | 32.9% | 15.8% | 15.7% | L7Days | 38.5% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.1% | 15.1% | 15.6% | RH | 31.4% | 14.5% | 14.0% | L7Days | 31.0% | 12.9% | 14.9% |
| Giants | Home | 25.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | LH | 28.0% | 8.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 6.3% | 14.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.5% | 17.0% | 11.2% | RH | 33.5% | 19.1% | 14.2% | L7Days | 31.5% | 16.3% | 12.7% |
| Braves | Road | 32.2% | 12.5% | 14.1% | RH | 31.0% | 11.7% | 12.1% | L7Days | 26.8% | 16.1% | -4.2% |
| Orioles | Road | 35.0% | 13.7% | 16.0% | RH | 31.0% | 15.3% | 10.5% | L7Days | 39.5% | 13.2% | 19.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.7% | 12.3% | 10.1% | RH | 31.4% | 12.2% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.4% | 14.9% | 12.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.0% | 12.5% | 8.4% | RH | 31.4% | 13.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 13.7% | 11.8% |
| Twins | Road | 31.5% | 13.5% | 14.6% | RH | 33.7% | 13.8% | 17.7% | L7Days | 32.0% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| Cubs | Road | 28.8% | 12.6% | 7.8% | RH | 29.9% | 13.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 27.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.1% | 15.9% | 10.3% | LH | 29.1% | 18.6% | 4.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 11.8% | 1.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.8% | 16.3% | 10.8% | RH | 34.0% | 17.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 43.1% | 28.8% | 24.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 28.9% | 11.9% | 8.2% | LH | 31.8% | 15.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.3% | -1.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 30.1% | 14.3% | 11.0% | LH | 30.6% | 14.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 30.2% | 9.4% | 12.4% |
| Indians | Home | 30.9% | 12.6% | 14.3% | RH | 33.6% | 12.5% | 17.6% | L7Days | 30.5% | 4.1% | 15.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 14.3% | 15.5% | RH | 31.4% | 14.1% | 12.1% | L7Days | 33.7% | 17.5% | 11.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 19.3% | 9.1% | 2.12 | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.6% | 7.6% | 2.45 | 16.7% | 5.5% | 3.04 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 26.4% | 10.6% | 2.49 | 26.6% | 13.1% | 2.03 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 14.5% | 4.9% | 2.96 | 15.4% | 5.3% | 2.91 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 18.0% | 8.8% | 2.05 | |||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | ||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 23.3% | 10.6% | 2.20 | 26.2% | 10.9% | 2.40 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.27 | 25.0% | 10.7% | 2.34 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.68 | 24.1% | 9.0% | 2.68 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 19.4% | 8.9% | 2.18 | 23.1% | 9.4% | 2.46 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 21.0% | 11.5% | 1.83 | 20.4% | 12.3% | 1.66 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.4% | 8.8% | 2.32 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.25 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 14.4% | 7.3% | 1.97 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.22 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.93 | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.93 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 17.9% | 7.3% | 2.45 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 2.19 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 21.5% | 10.4% | 2.07 | 17.7% | 9.0% | 1.97 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 13.8% | 6.6% | 2.09 | 12.3% | 7.5% | 1.64 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.34 | 22.7% | 9.7% | 2.34 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 19.4% | 9.7% | 2.00 | 15.5% | 8.7% | 1.78 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.0% | 10.3% | 1.94 | 20.5% | 12.7% | 1.61 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 16.4% | 6.0% | 2.73 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 2.27 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 23.0% | 14.2% | 1.62 | 26.6% | 14.7% | 1.81 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.10 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 2.15 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 27.5% | 12.0% | 2.29 | 27.8% | 13.3% | 2.09 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 17.1% | 5.3% | 3.23 | 17.1% | 5.3% | 3.23 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 26.6% | 8.8% | 3.02 | 25.4% | 9.2% | 2.76 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 10.5% | 6.4% | 1.64 | 11.9% | 7.8% | 1.53 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 19.9% | 7.4% | 2.69 | 16.2% | 5.9% | 2.75 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 26.9% | 11.5% | 2.34 | 30.6% | 12.3% | 2.49 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 23.6% | 13.9% | 1.70 | 26.3% | 14.4% | 1.83 |
Masahiro Tanana is now generating strikeouts more in line with his SwStr%, although he’s still below a 2.0 K/SwStr.
Trevor Bauer still can’t support his K%, but has been closer in recent starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.93 | 5.31 | 0.38 | 5.34 | 0.41 | 5.86 | 0.93 | 5.20 | 0.27 | 5.18 | 5.38 | 0.2 | 5.31 | 0.13 | 6.06 | 0.88 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.35 | 4.62 | -0.73 | 4.37 | -0.98 | 4.28 | -1.07 | 6.27 | 0.92 | 8.1 | 4.87 | -3.23 | 4.66 | -3.44 | 6.06 | -2.04 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 4.2 | 4.65 | 0.45 | 4.23 | 0.03 | 3.98 | -0.22 | 4.11 | -0.09 | 2.77 | 4.24 | 1.47 | 3.6 | 0.83 | 3.57 | 0.8 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 7.78 | 4.96 | -2.82 | 4.93 | -2.85 | 5.13 | -2.65 | 7.82 | 0.04 | 15 | 4.53 | -10.47 | 4.14 | -10.86 | 6.98 | -8.02 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 4.71 | 5.51 | 0.8 | 5.28 | 0.57 | 5.17 | 0.46 | 5.49 | 0.78 | |||||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | ||||||||||||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 2.92 | 4.17 | 1.25 | 4.34 | 1.42 | 3.47 | 0.55 | 4.37 | 1.45 | 1.6 | 3.46 | 1.86 | 3.79 | 2.19 | 3.03 | 1.43 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.66 | 4.66 | 0 | 4.76 | 0.1 | 4.01 | -0.65 | 4.36 | -0.30 | 5.14 | 4.24 | -0.9 | 4.6 | -0.54 | 4.14 | -1 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 5.04 | 4.08 | -0.96 | 4.42 | -0.62 | 3.98 | -1.06 | 7.02 | 1.98 | 5.04 | 4.08 | -0.96 | 4.42 | -0.62 | 3.98 | -1.06 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.68 | 3.78 | -0.9 | 3.52 | -1.16 | 5.16 | 0.48 | 3.79 | -0.89 | 4.5 | 3.69 | -0.81 | 3.44 | -1.06 | 5.98 | 1.48 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 4.3 | 4.23 | -0.07 | 4.19 | -0.11 | 5.16 | 0.86 | 5.32 | 1.02 | 4.33 | 4.11 | -0.22 | 4.13 | -0.2 | 4.89 | 0.56 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.95 | 5.1 | 0.15 | 5.48 | 0.53 | 5.62 | 0.67 | 5.84 | 0.89 | 5.84 | 5.21 | -0.63 | 5.67 | -0.17 | 6.06 | 0.22 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.06 | 4.37 | 1.31 | 4.01 | 0.95 | 3.79 | 0.73 | 4.50 | 1.44 | 3.55 | 4.44 | 0.89 | 4.24 | 0.69 | 4.81 | 1.26 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 5.7 | 4.51 | -1.19 | 4.42 | -1.28 | 4.24 | -1.46 | 5.88 | 0.18 | 5.7 | 4.51 | -1.19 | 4.42 | -1.28 | 4.24 | -1.46 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 4.66 | 4.75 | 0.09 | 4.52 | -0.14 | 3.45 | -1.21 | 5.10 | 0.44 | 7 | 5.26 | -1.74 | 5.03 | -1.97 | 4.98 | -2.02 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.74 | 4.31 | -0.43 | 4.4 | -0.34 | 5.55 | 0.81 | 5.98 | 1.24 | 3.9 | 4.81 | 0.91 | 4.88 | 0.98 | 6.31 | 2.41 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 3.7 | 4.93 | 1.23 | 4.79 | 1.09 | 4.71 | 1.01 | 5.34 | 1.64 | 3.9 | 4.83 | 0.93 | 4.81 | 0.91 | 5.04 | 1.14 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.6 | 6.17 | 2.57 | 5.22 | 1.62 | 9.34 | 5.74 | 5.48 | 1.88 | 3.6 | 6.17 | 2.57 | 5.22 | 1.62 | 9.34 | 5.74 |
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 4.56 | 4.01 | -0.55 | 3.93 | -0.63 | 4.47 | -0.09 | 4.71 | 0.15 | 3.03 | 5 | 1.97 | 4.67 | 1.64 | 5.34 | 2.31 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.69 | 3.75 | 0.06 | 3.59 | -0.1 | 4.17 | 0.48 | 3.82 | 0.13 | 4.5 | 3.5 | -1 | 3.51 | -0.99 | 5.11 | 0.61 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 3.6 | 5.39 | 1.79 | 5.09 | 1.49 | 4.62 | 1.02 | 4.18 | 0.58 | 3.6 | 5.57 | 1.97 | 5.34 | 1.74 | 4.84 | 1.24 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.74 | 3.92 | -1.82 | 3.9 | -1.84 | 5.28 | -0.46 | 4.28 | -1.46 | 5.52 | 3.6 | -1.92 | 3.55 | -1.97 | 5.26 | -0.26 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5 | 4.11 | -0.89 | 4.3 | -0.7 | 3.97 | -1.03 | 5.42 | 0.42 | 6.08 | 4.48 | -1.6 | 4.71 | -1.37 | 4.14 | -1.94 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.57 | 3.54 | -0.03 | 3.45 | -0.12 | 3.2 | -0.37 | 2.57 | -1.00 | 5.08 | 3.6 | -1.48 | 3.72 | -1.36 | 4.7 | -0.38 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 3.6 | 4.82 | 1.22 | 4.71 | 1.11 | 5.89 | 2.29 | 4.39 | 0.79 | 3.6 | 4.82 | 1.22 | 4.71 | 1.11 | 5.89 | 2.29 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 5.53 | 3.85 | -1.68 | 3.65 | -1.88 | 4.12 | -1.41 | 4.05 | -1.48 | 4.31 | 3.94 | -0.37 | 3.69 | -0.62 | 3.14 | -1.17 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 4.86 | 5.23 | 0.37 | 4.95 | 0.09 | 4.25 | -0.61 | 6.55 | 1.69 | 6.53 | 4.9 | -1.63 | 4.74 | -1.79 | 4.2 | -2.33 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 4.48 | 4.84 | 0.36 | 4.44 | -0.04 | 4.73 | 0.25 | 4.51 | 0.03 | 7.94 | 5.02 | -2.92 | 4.83 | -3.11 | 4.73 | -3.21 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.12 | 3.89 | 0.77 | 3.82 | 0.7 | 3.88 | 0.76 | 2.52 | -0.60 | 3.45 | 2.99 | -0.46 | 3.13 | -0.32 | 3.3 | -0.15 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 2.53 | 3.66 | 1.13 | 3.24 | 0.71 | 3.18 | 0.65 | 2.92 | 0.39 | 3.2 | 3.37 | 0.17 | 3.06 | -0.14 | 2.95 | -0.25 |
Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 21 HRs (24.1 HR/FB), four off his career high.
Trevor Bauer has a .340 BABIP and 66.8 LOB%. His BABIP profile projects better, but he allows a lot of hard contact.
Yu Darvish has a .243 BABIP and 82.3 LOB%, but as his ERA has risen over the last month, his estimators have actually dropped about a run.
Zack Godley has increased his strikeout rate over the last month, but really in his last two starts with eight in each. The SwStr% has been there all along.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.290 | 0.279 | -0.011 | 44.2% | 0.181 | 7.7% | 85.9% | 87.5 | 8.70% | 5.80% | 138 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.292 | 0.336 | 0.044 | 48.2% | 0.241 | 13.0% | 90.8% | 85.4 | 5.50% | 4.00% | 253 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.287 | 0.293 | 0.006 | 46.0% | 0.254 | 13.9% | 87.4% | 86.8 | 6.30% | 3.60% | 127 |
| Bartolo Colon | ATL | 0.284 | 0.353 | 0.069 | 44.3% | 0.212 | 11.0% | 92.8% | 88.1 | 7.80% | 6.20% | 218 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.293 | 0.298 | 0.005 | 41.7% | 0.22 | 17.4% | 84.0% | 87 | 4.60% | 3.20% | 130 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.283 | ||||||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.300 | 0.274 | -0.026 | 38.4% | 0.19 | 10.9% | 83.5% | 84.2 | 4.10% | 2.80% | 245 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.310 | 0.349 | 0.039 | 39.9% | 0.215 | 6.7% | 88.4% | 88.4 | 6.80% | 4.60% | 236 |
| David Paulino | HOU | 0.292 | 0.352 | 0.06 | 33.8% | 0.169 | 14.3% | 85.2% | 89.2 | 8.10% | 5.60% | 74 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.283 | 0.382 | 0.099 | 48.6% | 0.252 | 7.1% | 92.0% | 86.5 | 11.00% | 8.30% | 109 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | LOS | 0.278 | 0.311 | 0.033 | 47.0% | 0.205 | 7.7% | 82.4% | 86.7 | 7.80% | 5.50% | 204 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.302 | 0.205 | -0.097 | 37.0% | 0.122 | 8.3% | 83.1% | 89.6 | 11.10% | 7.50% | 190 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.305 | 0.274 | -0.031 | 49.2% | 0.223 | 9.8% | 92.4% | 88 | 5.70% | 4.60% | 336 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.290 | 0.320 | 0.03 | 53.8% | 0.154 | 8.3% | 86.6% | 88.2 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 78 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.295 | 0.308 | 0.013 | 46.2% | 0.245 | 8.1% | 89.4% | 87.6 | 4.60% | 3.30% | 216 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.284 | 0.269 | -0.015 | 44.1% | 0.184 | 8.3% | 85.9% | 86.5 | 6.80% | 4.80% | 263 |
| Kyle Freeland | COL | 0.297 | 0.299 | 0.002 | 58.5% | 0.17 | 10.1% | 91.2% | 85.6 | 4.10% | 3.10% | 290 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.291 | 0.300 | 0.009 | 75.0% | 0 | 33.3% | 88.5% | ||||
| Luis Perdomo | SDG | 0.298 | 0.319 | 0.021 | 65.1% | 0.151 | 9.3% | 90.9% | 86.7 | 5.50% | 3.80% | 219 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.016 | 60.3% | 0.166 | 3.1% | 88.5% | 88.3 | 7.90% | 5.80% | 279 |
| Mark Leiter | PHI | 0.305 | 0.171 | -0.134 | 53.5% | 0.169 | 4.8% | 89.7% | 84.2 | 4.20% | 2.90% | 72 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.286 | 0.315 | 0.029 | 47.7% | 0.184 | 12.6% | 86.1% | 89.2 | 10.40% | 7.30% | 259 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.314 | 0.371 | 0.057 | 37.0% | 0.22 | 9.7% | 86.6% | 88.4 | 8.80% | 6.60% | 329 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.296 | 0.287 | -0.009 | 45.1% | 0.209 | 8.1% | 84.7% | 87.9 | 7.80% | 5.00% | 257 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.317 | 0.193 | -0.124 | 44.3% | 0.18 | 0.0% | 88.9% | 88.5 | 8.10% | 6.10% | 62 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.305 | 0.340 | 0.035 | 47.7% | 0.191 | 11.0% | 87.6% | 89.2 | 10.20% | 6.60% | 225 |
| Ty Blach | SFO | 0.320 | 0.296 | -0.024 | 47.1% | 0.204 | 7.9% | 90.0% | 86 | 5.00% | 4.20% | 282 |
| Wade Miley | BAL | 0.315 | 0.324 | 0.009 | 53.0% | 0.214 | 10.0% | 92.3% | 87.6 | 5.50% | 3.70% | 235 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.289 | 0.243 | -0.046 | 41.3% | 0.228 | 5.5% | 84.5% | 86.3 | 7.00% | 4.40% | 256 |
| Zack Godley | ARI | 0.288 | 0.247 | -0.041 | 59.9% | 0.183 | 9.7% | 86.4% | 83.9 | 4.00% | 2.70% | 150 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Stephen Strasburg (1) was knocked around in his last start with just a 20 K% over his last two outings. Overall, he’s still one of the top pitchers in the league this season and still has the kind of upside that made him that in there. He remains a top play not by separating himself from the field when accounting for cost against a below average Cubs’ offense, but because this entire group of pitchers are packed more closely together than normally. At least the first three tiers.
Masahiro Tanaka (3) has shown elite upside in recent starts and we saw last time out what he’s capable of when keeping the ball on the ground and in the yard. He’s in a great spot tonight against a White Sox offense that really struggles against RHP and costs less than $9K.
Value Tier Two
Yu Darvish (2) seems to have returned to form over the last month, though it hasn’t been a very consistent process as both run prevention and peripherals have been hit or miss even in June. You can’t argue too much with a 30% strikeout rate over a month long period though. He’s also the second costliest pitcher on the board in a difficult spot in Cleveland.
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman has allowed hard contact on nearly 50% of batted balls over his last two starts, resulting in six of his 13 HRs allowed this year, but he’s still generating ground balls and has been getting whiffs at an elite rate over the last month. The Orioles have struggled, but still have power, which keeps him from moving up any higher with a cost of $9K or less despite the elite ground ball and recent SwStr rates.
Zack Godley has generated a few less ground balls to go with more strikeouts, but is still at an above average rate. He has an 83.9 mph aEV overall, but 33.9 Hard% and 20 HR/FB at home this year. If he can manage contact well in this spot, he’s probably going to be better than this cautious placement.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Trevor Bauer remains an enigma. I have no idea what he’s going to do in any single start, but the Rangers have been striking out a ton. He could put up 10 and only costs $6.2K on DraftKings.
Daniel Norris has increased his strikeouts in June, but still has some flaws (hard contact, increased walk rate), but is in a good spot for a LHP against the Royals. He probably drops off the board on FanDuel, but could serve as a potentially useful SP2 for $700 less.
Steven Matz hasn’t been missing a lot of bats without throwing his slider in three starts to begin the season, but he did look better overall in his last start and steps into a favorable situation in Miami tonight at reasonable cost. He’s also gone seven innings in two of three starts.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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