Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 11th
We don’t always get them right. Sometimes, we even get more than half of them wrong. Baseball is a volatile sport and I’m not Kevin Roth (who gets nearly every game right). As I write this about an hour into the West Coast games on Wednesday night, the top six scoring pitchers on DraftKings are Trevor Bauer, Rubby de la Rosa, Adam Morgan, Kevin Gausman, Matt Cain, and Chris Devenski, only four of home surpassed 20 points. Names you will not find are Jon Lester, Jacob deGrom, Masahiro Tanaka, or Drew Smyly (although Lester could sneak in at the bottom with a W). Some of those guys showed signs, but seemed either too costly (Gausman) or were in bad spots (de la Rosa). Morgan and Devenski were names we were on. Bauer, however, there is absolutely nothing in his profile that suggested he’d be worth $9K on DraftKings. He’s been a walk and HR machine with occasional strikeouts his entire career. He’s going to blow up more often than he dominates and cost more money than he makes in the long run. There’s not a matchup in baseball I’d be comfortable paying that much for him in.
Yesterday would have been a great day to load up on cheap pitching so you could afford Coors stacks, which you then would have to have faded for the win. Despite just nine games on the night slate today, it would be surprising if we didn’t see much better efforts out of the top pitchers with the most interesting matchup taking place out west at Dodger Stadium.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com’s three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | -0.9 | 4.51 | 5.84 | 1.42 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 4.2 | PIT | 114 | 109 | 96 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -9 | 4.12 | 5.48 | 1.17 | 1 | 4.22 | 5.18 | FLA | 92 | 102 | 101 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 1.8 | 3.67 | 5.25 | 1.2 | 1.03 | 4.01 | 4.01 | CHC | 108 | 114 | 147 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | -15.3 | 5.06 | 4.78 | 0.86 | 1.07 | 6.16 | BOS | 126 | 106 | 160 | |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -14.3 | 3.24 | 6.4 | 2.63 | 0.92 | 3.96 | 3.12 | ANA | 84 | 109 | 75 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -2.1 | 3.52 | 6.22 | 1.09 | 0.96 | 4.18 | 4.24 | ATL | 60 | 65 | 44 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | -8.8 | 4.25 | 5.68 | 1.36 | 0.96 | 4.1 | 5.08 | PHI | 77 | 71 | 63 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 13.5 | 3.77 | 6.51 | 1.38 | 1.03 | 3.53 | 3.63 | SDG | 85 | 72 | 77 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | -9.7 | 3.62 | 6.33 | 1.12 | 1.02 | 3.72 | 4.44 | WAS | 82 | 82 | 100 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.7 | 4.01 | 4.79 | 1.33 | 1.02 | 4.21 | 3.78 | CIN | 88 | 76 | 122 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | -1 | 3.6 | 6.33 | 1.13 | 0.9 | 4.18 | 4.13 | NYM | 113 | 106 | 101 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 9.3 | 3.7 | 5.63 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 3.95 | 5.56 | STL | 125 | 124 | 123 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.1 | 2.92 | 6.74 | 0.81 | 1.02 | 3.26 | 3.25 | DET | 107 | 108 | 60 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -1.4 | 3.2 | 5.95 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 3.14 | 4.74 | KAN | 90 | 92 | 95 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -5.2 | 2.83 | 6.27 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 2.92 | 3.61 | LOS | 69 | 83 | 81 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.9 | 3.77 | 6.36 | 1.52 | 1.07 | 3.45 | 3.86 | OAK | 105 | 93 | 113 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.2 | 3.95 | 6.1 | 1.07 | 1 | 3.84 | 5.13 | MIL | 83 | 93 | 110 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 9.7 | 4.08 | 5.85 | 1.63 | 1.02 | 4.24 | 8.48 | NYY | 107 | 86 | 103 |
Jaime Garcia has had two dominant starts this year (16 IP – 3 ER – 0 ER – 1 BB – 18 K – 52 BF), but has been pretty bad in his four others (22.1 IP – 21 H – 13 ER – 13 BB – 22 K – 101 BF) with the overall numbers looking better than the separated parts. The 9.2 BB% is particularly concerning as he hasn’t had a walk rate above 7% since 2010. However, the strikeouts are stronger than ever and the contact profile is still full of weak ground balls (59.2 GB%, -1.0 Hard-Soft%). Garcia has been good at suppressing HRs, even on the road (7.1 HR/FB since last season) and the Angels don’t have much power, but I’d like to direct you to the strikeouts numbers below. Garcia trivially has just a 16.2 road K% since last season, but the Angels have stopped striking out, including an insane 11.9% against LHP this year, just barely more than they’ve walked.
Jerad Eickhoff gets the Braves and therefore, his name in the spotlight tonight. He’s been very mediocre over his last two starts, striking out a total of six and allowing three ERs in six innings in each. He exceeded that strikeout total in each of his previous three starts. The overall package has been strong in the K and BB departments with a bit too much hard contact (33.0 Hard%). Let’s talk about the real reason he’s at the top of our collective list today, the Atlanta Braves, who are the worst offense in baseball and the best matchup on the board tonight. They only strike out about average, but have just a 4.1 HR/FB at home and 3.6 HR/FB vs RHP. There’s absolutely no power in this lineup, meaning several weak hitters have to string a bunch of hits together to do any real damage.
Jhoulys Chacin was pounded for four NY Met HRs in his last start, which was an early afternoon mid-week affair exactly a week ago, and hasn’t gone six innings since his first, while the strikeouts and SwStr% have declined in recent outings, though he’s faced some tough offenses. He still has a pretty impressive 16.2 K-BB% for the season with a little too much hard contact (35.8 Hard%, 17.4 HR/FB). He has what might be the second best matchup on the board tonight, aside from his own offense, while the Phillies have a 14.6 K-BB% and 4.5 Hard-Soft% against RHP.
John Lackey has been a bit more than the average pitcher we expect him to be through his peripherals (18.9 K-BB% with a career high 12.6 SwStr%), but a bit less according to his 4.02 ERA. With no real changes in his arsenal or pitch usage, we tend to believe he’s going to end up being what he usually is, which something close to a league average pitcher. He has the pleasure of facing the Padres, who come into today’s double header with a 29.2 K% on the road and 26.0 K% vs RHP, giving Lackey perhaps one of the more unexpected higher strikeout upsides of the night.
Kenta Maeda walked four in his last start and has allowed six runs (two HRs) over his last two starts after allowing on through his first four. He remains a quality pitcher, but perhaps we still have to expect some further adjustment in the overall numbers. His ability to keep the ball in the yard will be tested tonight against a Mets offense with a 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP, 17.5 HR/FB on the road, and 19.7 HR/FB over the last week. He’s managed contact well (2.0 Hard-Soft%) and his 83.9 mph aEV is the lowest on today’s board, but they hit the ball hard (19.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP).
Max Scherzer faces his old team as well in this one and he’s been almost the opposite of Zimmermann. He was pounded for four HRs against the Cubs in his last start with his ERA and FIP now well over four through seven starts. There are some concerning things going on as HRs have occasionally been an issue for him in the past, but never to the level they’ve been so far. Expect that situation to improve somewhat, but perhaps last year was a career year. His strikeout and SwStr rates have returned closer to career rates. The walk rate is a little high, but the batted ball and contact profiles are very similar to career rates, so perhaps we should look at and expect his career rates, which were still strong enough to get him $100 million. The Tigers are a strong offense against RHP with power, but lose a middle of the order DH again today (I’m sure Castellanos will just homer off another tough RHer again to make up for it though) and strike out about a quarter of the time.
Michael Pineda has lost something off of his strikeout rate (seven of last 49), but gotten some weaker contact in his last start. It looks like he might be throwing his fastball more, getting more ground balls, but the changes and sample are so small that we’re really reaching just to find change in his contact profile here because it’s been horrendous. The 30.2 Hard% is right in line with last season though and while he’s walked a few more batters, the overall profile remains better than league average. This is a guy who’s going to allow some HRs in Yankee Stadium and perhaps he’ll regain the ground ball profile he started showing last year, but he’s facing a pretty average offense in Kansas City this year. They’ve struck out more than they have in the past, but still don’t walk much or hit the ball particularly hard or with more than average power.
Noah Syndergaard seemed to have sacrificed something in his last start to stop stolen bases. Let’s hope the Mets have learned their lesson and let him loose again. He’s allowed one HR this season and it was the hardest pitch hit for a HR (98 mph), while his 84.3 mph aEV is second lowest next to his opponent on tonight’s board. He still leads the league in SwStr% by nearly a point over Kershaw, while sitting third in K%. Although a bit better recently, the Dodgers are still a hugely under-achieving offense this season.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
Juan Nicasio (.277 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 13.8 HR/FB) has had two great starts, while failing to strike out more than he’s walked in three of his other four and with a well below average SwStr%. While none of his quoted numbers are too far of league norms, they probably don’t fit his profile, as in a guy with a low SwStr% and bad control is not going to strand so many runners usually. He has continued to beat down RHBs, but still can’t get LHBs out consistently (.367 wOBA), making this not the worst matchup in the world and potentially a break even proposition for just over $6K on DraftKings, though tough to stomach for nearly $8K on FanDuel.
Jordan Zimmermann (.256 BABIP – 89.6 LOB% – 3.8 HR/FB) is giving the Tigers innings (which is easier to do when you strand so many runners), but still has the lowest K% and SwStr% of his career. Even if you gave him the BABIP and HR rate, which you shouldn’t, his ERA jumps two runs. He’s struck out more than four in just two of six starts. Maybe he’ll have some extra motivation against his old team, who struggle against RHP, but it’s very tough to pay $9K or more for a pitcher who needs to do it almost entirely on batted balls.
Drew Pomeranz (.244 BABIP – 79.0 LOB% – 5.7 HR/FB) has absolutely been a much improved and even a quality pitcher, but this is more about his high cost and competition today, even though the numbers quoted are a bit out of line. Additionally, his SwStr has been just 7.1% in each of his last two starts, so he might be coming back to earth a little bit. He’s walked exactly three in five of his six starts, for an 11.7 BB%, which actually falls below the Cubs 14.0% mark vs LHP. This is the worst matchup of the evening.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rick Porcello has increased in cost enough to the point where we have to talk about some things, namely his BABIP and SwStr%. He’s still allowing HRs at the same rate as last season (15.8 HR/FB), but has been masking that with a nearly hundred point drop in BABIP. Even his career mark is .311, but that was behind some ugly Detroit defenses, so we can give him credit for a few more points, but that doesn’t get him anywhere near .242. His LD rate is down, but his fly ball rate is the highest it’s ever been, which can be fine, but is a problem for a HR prone pitcher. His SwStr has been below 6% in three of his starts (above 9% in each of his other three). While he struck out 24 of his first 78 batters, he’s struck out just 17 of 78 since, which is still fine, but not elite and again the SwStr thing. If you’re looking for that to improve, his career SwStr is 7.4% with a high of 8.7% four years ago. The A’s don’t do a lot of great things offensively, but they don’t strike out all that much. The cost may be climbing too high here, though he’s still in a borderline area on FanDuel for less than $9K still.
Wei-Yin Chen
Matt Shoemaker may have some wiggle room to improve his K%, but the HRs and hard contact that haunted him in the minors has shown up in the majors. You have to have tremendous placement and change speeds well with secondary stuff (or have some other major quirks) to succeed with a 90 mph fastball.
Yordano Ventura might walk four guys on his way to the ball park.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.7% | Home | 16.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 9.6% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.3% | Road | 16.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 11.8% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 24.5% | 9.6% | Road | 24.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.3% |
| Eric Surkamp | Athletics | L2 Years | 14.9% | 11.8% | Road | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | ||
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.0% | 6.1% | Road | 16.4% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 6.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.5% | 5.7% | Road | 18.8% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 4.2% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 18.6% | 8.9% | Home | 19.0% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 12.5% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.8% | 5.8% | Home | 21.1% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.3% | 4.2% | Road | 20.6% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 15.3% | 1.7% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 20.9% | 10.2% | Road | 23.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.8% | 6.8% | Home | 20.5% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 9.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.2% | 5.6% | Home | 23.5% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.6% | Home | 28.1% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 29.9% | 9.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.7% | 3.3% | Home | 24.2% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 8.2% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 28.5% | 5.2% | Road | 28.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 8.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.4% | 5.1% | Home | 22.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 5.6% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.3% | 4.8% | Home | 18.4% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 20.3% | 9.6% | Road | 19.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 25.0% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 19.8% | 9.2% | RH | 18.4% | 9.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.2% | 7.8% | RH | 17.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.9% | 6.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 19.3% | 13.8% | LH | 16.1% | 14.0% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.8% | 9.0% | LH | 22.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.8% | 7.9% |
| Angels | Home | 16.2% | 8.3% | LH | 11.9% | 9.8% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.2% |
| Braves | Home | 22.5% | 7.9% | RH | 19.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.5% | 6.3% | RH | 21.3% | 6.7% | L7Days | 14.8% | 5.1% |
| Padres | Road | 29.2% | 7.0% | RH | 26.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.7% | 5.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.1% | 10.2% | RH | 20.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.5% | 11.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.0% | 6.7% | RH | 22.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.1% |
| Mets | Road | 22.8% | 9.1% | RH | 21.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 23.3% | 11.5% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.2% | 10.3% | RH | 20.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.7% | 10.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.0% | 6.6% | RH | 24.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 25.6% | 10.5% |
| Royals | Road | 20.1% | 5.4% | RH | 19.4% | 6.2% | L7Days | 22.0% | 3.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.6% | RH | 21.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.7% | 6.3% | RH | 18.6% | 7.2% | L7Days | 16.2% | 6.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.0% | 11.6% | LH | 21.1% | 13.3% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.7% | 9.1% | RH | 19.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.7% | 13.8% | 2016 | 29.3% | 28.6% | 10.6% | Home | 28.3% | 10.5% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.2% | 15.8% | 2016 | 39.1% | 21.6% | 24.8% | Road | 30.3% | 14.9% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 51.4% | 35.7% | 46.0% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 2016 | 33.8% | 5.7% | 18.8% | Road | 25.4% | 6.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 0.0% | 13.8% |
| Eric Surkamp | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 2016 | 29.3% | 10.0% | 8.0% | Road | 35.1% | 13.6% | 17.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 2016 | 20.4% | 5.0% | -1.0% | Road | 26.3% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% | -5.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 34.8% | 9.7% | 14.4% | 2016 | 33.0% | 10.8% | 12.8% | Road | 40.1% | 12.3% | 23.8% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 9.1% | 20.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Braves | L2 Years | 36.9% | 14.2% | 20.3% | 2016 | 35.8% | 17.4% | 14.8% | Home | 35.1% | 11.1% | 20.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 44.4% | 9.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.1% | 10.9% | 14.9% | 2016 | 38.9% | 11.8% | 28.7% | Home | 31.3% | 7.0% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 35.9% | 7.7% | 25.6% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.1% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 2016 | 24.4% | 3.8% | 6.8% | Road | 28.7% | 11.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 8.3% | 12.3% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.8% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 2016 | 18.4% | 13.8% | -6.9% | Road | 25.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 12.5% | -8.8% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 23.8% | 7.9% | 2.0% | 2016 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 2.0% | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 12.5% | -8.8% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 2016 | 33.8% | 23.1% | 20.8% | Home | 36.1% | 17.6% | 22.2% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 2016 | 29.7% | 19.1% | 2.6% | Home | 29.1% | 11.3% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 26.3% | 14.9% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.5% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 2016 | 30.2% | 20.5% | 15.1% | Home | 29.1% | 20.9% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 25.0% | 12.8% | 4.7% | 2016 | 26.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | Road | 28.0% | 12.3% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 12.5% | 21.9% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.4% | 12.6% | 2016 | 27.6% | 15.8% | 14.3% | Home | 31.3% | 13.0% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 6.7% | 12.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 29.4% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 2016 | 35.3% | 13.5% | 19.3% | Home | 30.5% | 13.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 8.3% | 25.5% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 27.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 2016 | 30.8% | 7.7% | 14.3% | Road | 28.0% | 14.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 16.7% | 3.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 31.9% | 11.2% | 11.7% | RH | 28.4% | 9.5% | 7.2% | L7Days | 29.4% | 10.6% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 27.7% | 11.3% | 4.5% | RH | 26.6% | 11.4% | 4.0% | L7Days | 33.5% | 11.5% | 16.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 32.4% | 10.0% | 14.5% | LH | 28.1% | 9.2% | 11.3% | L7Days | 37.4% | 15.5% | 19.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 31.9% | 12.2% | 14.8% | LH | 25.3% | 13.2% | 2.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 24.2% | 10.7% |
| Angels | Home | 29.2% | 12.0% | 10.4% | LH | 25.0% | 10.3% | 1.5% | L7Days | 35.6% | 2.9% | 24.5% |
| Braves | Home | 30.1% | 4.1% | 12.6% | RH | 25.2% | 3.6% | 6.2% | L7Days | 29.0% | 5.6% | 13.0% |
| Phillies | Road | 29.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | RH | 25.6% | 8.8% | 4.5% | L7Days | 26.6% | 6.7% | 4.6% |
| Padres | Road | 34.1% | 13.3% | 17.3% | RH | 29.6% | 10.2% | 13.2% | L7Days | 33.3% | 11.3% | 20.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 29.9% | 9.9% | 12.4% | RH | 32.5% | 11.6% | 16.1% | L7Days | 36.8% | 13.8% | 22.4% |
| Reds | Home | 31.5% | 17.5% | 16.4% | RH | 33.3% | 12.4% | 16.7% | L7Days | 40.7% | 23.4% | 28.0% |
| Mets | Road | 36.1% | 17.5% | 23.5% | RH | 35.4% | 15.3% | 19.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 19.7% | 24.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.8% | 16.4% | 14.0% | RH | 33.1% | 16.7% | 14.6% | L7Days | 32.4% | 13.8% | 17.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 33.4% | 12.4% | 16.6% | RH | 33.2% | 12.4% | 16.8% | L7Days | 26.7% | 9.4% | 6.1% |
| Royals | Road | 27.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | RH | 28.6% | 9.1% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.8% | 15.1% | 14.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 28.3% | 9.7% | 6.8% | RH | 31.4% | 7.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 35.6% | 11.1% | 24.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.1% | 11.2% | 11.7% | RH | 29.9% | 9.7% | 11.5% | L7Days | 24.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 27.0% | 14.2% | 6.7% | LH | 34.5% | 15.0% | 18.4% | L7Days | 32.3% | 19.0% | 12.0% |
| Yankees | Home | 27.2% | 12.7% | 6.7% | RH | 25.8% | 13.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 26.1% | 11.5% | 6.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 18.9% | 10.1% | 1.87 | 16.3% | 8.2% | 1.99 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 16.4% | 6.4% | 2.56 | 14.8% | 5.9% | 2.51 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 29.9% | 12.7% | 2.35 | 29.6% | 12.0% | 2.47 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 9.2% | 5.9% | 1.56 | 9.1% | 5.5% | 1.65 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 26.1% | 11.0% | 2.37 | 27.0% | 11.7% | 2.31 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 22.5% | 9.6% | 2.34 | 24.4% | 10.3% | 2.37 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.16 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 2.16 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 25.2% | 12.6% | 2.00 | 27.1% | 12.6% | 2.15 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 15.2% | 7.0% | 2.17 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 2.07 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.9% | 7.5% | 3.19 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 3.13 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 23.8% | 12.5% | 1.90 | 25.0% | 12.9% | 1.94 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 15.5% | 9.6% | 1.61 | 16.7% | 9.7% | 1.72 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 25.6% | 12.6% | 2.03 | 25.2% | 12.2% | 2.07 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 22.7% | 12.6% | 1.80 | 23.0% | 12.2% | 1.89 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 32.2% | 16.2% | 1.99 | 31.0% | 16.0% | 1.94 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 26.3% | 7.8% | 3.37 | 26.4% | 7.4% | 3.57 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 16.0% | 7.0% | 2.29 | 16.7% | 6.6% | 2.53 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 17.6% | 9.1% | 1.93 | 15.8% | 8.9% | 1.78 |
We’re not much interested in using any of the main outliers today, but talked about Porcello at length above.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 9.86 | 4.34 | -5.52 | 4.77 | -5.09 | 6.93 | -2.93 | 12.38 | 4.79 | -7.59 | 5.14 | -7.24 | 8.26 | -4.12 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 6.44 | 4.69 | -1.75 | 4.7 | -1.74 | 6.27 | -0.17 | 7.77 | 5.03 | -2.74 | 4.99 | -2.78 | 7.34 | -0.43 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 2.12 | 3.55 | 1.43 | 3.67 | 1.55 | 2.83 | 0.71 | 1.86 | 3.53 | 1.67 | 3.63 | 1.77 | 2.97 | 1.11 |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 5.59 | 6.39 | 0.8 | 6.73 | 1.14 | 6.33 | 0.74 | 6 | 6.8 | 0.8 | 7.03 | 1.03 | 6.27 | 0.27 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 3.05 | 3.2 | 0.15 | 2.97 | -0.08 | 2.49 | -0.56 | 2.51 | 2.9 | 0.39 | 2.71 | 0.2 | 2.48 | -0.03 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.21 | 3.45 | -0.76 | 3.45 | -0.76 | 3.29 | -0.92 | 4.31 | 3.15 | -1.16 | 3.01 | -1.3 | 3.23 | -1.08 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 5.4 | 3.53 | -1.87 | 3.29 | -2.11 | 3.89 | -1.51 | 5.4 | 3.54 | -1.86 | 3.29 | -2.11 | 3.89 | -1.51 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 4.02 | 3.35 | -0.67 | 3.22 | -0.8 | 3.19 | -0.83 | 3.15 | 3.17 | 0.02 | 3.03 | -0.12 | 2.6 | -0.55 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1.1 | 4.42 | 3.32 | 4.41 | 3.31 | 3.07 | 1.97 | 1.32 | 4.18 | 2.86 | 4.14 | 2.82 | 2.98 | 1.66 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 3.16 | 4.11 | 0.95 | 3.91 | 0.75 | 4.12 | 0.96 | 3.55 | 4.58 | 1.03 | 4.23 | 0.68 | 4.41 | 0.86 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 1.66 | 3.6 | 1.94 | 3.66 | 2 | 3.12 | 1.46 | 1.97 | 3.67 | 1.7 | 3.87 | 1.9 | 3.38 | 1.41 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 9.15 | 5.02 | -4.13 | 4.94 | -4.21 | 6.75 | -2.4 | 7.64 | 4.76 | -2.88 | 4.62 | -3.02 | 6.35 | -1.29 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 4.6 | 3.62 | -0.98 | 3.75 | -0.85 | 4.77 | 0.17 | 5 | 3.66 | -1.34 | 3.72 | -1.28 | 4.6 | -0.4 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 5.73 | 3.64 | -2.09 | 3.76 | -1.97 | 5.07 | -0.66 | 4.82 | 3.69 | -1.13 | 3.69 | -1.13 | 4.28 | -0.54 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 2.58 | 2.34 | -0.24 | 2.15 | -0.43 | 1.56 | -1.02 | 3.06 | 2.47 | -0.59 | 2.3 | -0.76 | 1.74 | -1.32 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.95 | 3.1 | 0.15 | 3.25 | 0.3 | 3.72 | 0.77 | 2.41 | 3.1 | 0.69 | 3.29 | 0.88 | 3.4 | 0.99 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.66 | 4.12 | -0.54 | 3.91 | -0.75 | 4.1 | -0.56 | 3.98 | 4.04 | 0.06 | 3.79 | -0.19 | 4.05 | 0.07 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 4.65 | 5.9 | 1.25 | 5.94 | 1.29 | 5.23 | 0.58 | 4.85 | 5.84 | 0.99 | 5.96 | 1.11 | 5.41 | 0.56 |
Jerad Eickhoff has allowed his base runners in bunches, stranding just 66.8% of his runners. A normalized strand rate would have his ERA in the mid-three range.
Jhoulys Chacin has a .321 BABIP 40 points above his career average and this is a guy who has spent his career in Colorado. I’d expect that and his 17.4 HR/FB to regress to career norms, which are near league with a 63.7 LOB% to follow. If his K% can remain above average, he all of a sudden looks like a pretty decent pitcher.
John Lackey – The Cubs’ defense has been so good that his high LD rate has driven his BABIP all the way up to .288. It’s really just a 66.0 LOB% that needs to move towards his career 72.8% career rate which is the league average.
Kenta Maeda – While we don’t know about his HR suppression skills, the safest thing to do is assume something between his current mark (7.9 HR/FB) and league average (around 11). His contact profile is exceptional, while the defense has been good (at least as far as BABIP is concerned), but we can’t expect the BABIP to remain this low, while the 91.5 LOB% is the most obvious heavy regression candidate.
Max Scherzer – Maybe this is him. No, not the 19.1 HR/FB. His career rate is 10.2 and his high is 12.6 in 2011. His walk rate might improve a couple of points too. Add in a small age related decline and maybe we should expect something in the low threes.
Michael Pineda – The defense continues to do him no favors, but the BABIP should decline at least 30 to 40 points or more (.332 last year though) and the HR rate might remain high, but shouldn’t stick at 20%. He’s generated a few more ground balls in his last two starts too, which should help. The strikeouts are right in line with last year.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 0.276 | 0.420 | 0.144 | 0.227 | 0.0% | 83.9% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.325 | 0.351 | 0.026 | 0.21 | 5.4% | 85.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 0.300 | 0.244 | -0.056 | 0.113 | 8.6% | 81.2% |
| Eric Surkamp | OAK | 0.306 | 0.306 | 0 | 0.333 | 13.3% | 91.3% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.282 | 0.237 | -0.045 | 0.204 | 5.0% | 84.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.280 | 0.295 | 0.015 | 0.206 | 18.9% | 88.0% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | ATL | 0.291 | 0.321 | 0.03 | 0.228 | 17.4% | 86.2% |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.251 | 0.288 | 0.037 | 0.255 | 5.9% | 87.5% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.313 | 0.256 | -0.057 | 0.162 | 11.5% | 87.8% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.297 | 0.277 | -0.02 | 0.235 | 10.3% | 85.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.274 | 0.235 | -0.039 | 0.173 | 21.1% | 82.3% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.285 | 0.324 | 0.039 | 0.338 | 11.5% | 87.6% |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.278 | 0.284 | 0.006 | 0.195 | 19.1% | 80.1% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.311 | 0.357 | 0.046 | 0.21 | 0.0% | 85.5% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.320 | 0.344 | 0.024 | 0.207 | 4.3% | 82.0% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.300 | 0.242 | -0.058 | 0.155 | 2.6% | 85.3% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.306 | 0.307 | 0.001 | 0.214 | 5.4% | 89.8% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.290 | 0.239 | -0.051 | 0.144 | 7.7% | 87.6% |
Jaime Garcia – A .237 BABIP is not going to hold, but there seem to be two paths to a low BABIP and both include a strong defense. One is by generating a lot of pop ups and the other might be an overload of weak ground balls. Garcia has chosen the latter route and has been hard to square up in the zone.
Noah Syndergaard – Part of it’s the defense, but he seems to allow more bloop hits and weak grounders that find holes than any pitcher I’ve watched in recent years. I’m sure there’s some confirmation bias there, but the BABIP seems to support the notion because he’s absolutely not allowing frequent hard contact and has a 54.3 GB%.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Of our 18 listed pitchers, six have a gap in price of at least $1.8K between DraftKings and FanDuel, which makes this stuff all much harder. Consider that Max Scherzer costs just $1.9K more than Matt Shoemaker on FanDuel, but is more than twice his price on DraftKings. Or Drew Pomeranz and Shoemaker are the same price on FanDuel with a $4.3K difference on DraftKings. Keep this in mind while reading.
Value Tier One
Noah Syndergaard (1) is the cream of the crop tonight. He’s the highest priced (not by much on DK) with the highest upside, facing a disappointing offense. Things don’t always go our way and he’s looked more human (like when Thor lost his hammer – does anyone actually remember Donald Blake?), but this is the pitcher I’m going down with for less than $12K (or more than $2K less than Kluber was earlier in the week on DraftKings). None of the 10 pitchers with a 29% strikeout rate or better have a GB% near his 54.3%.
Value Tier Two
Jerad Eickhoff faces the Braves. You’re waiting for more? He’s a borderline steal on FanDuel for less than $7K with at least league average numbers through 87.1 career innings. He’s priced more aggressively on DraftKings ($8K), where he’s not necessarily the top value, but is in the running for the group below Syndergaard.
Max Scherzer (2) isn’t performing like last year’s Cy Young contender, but the strikeouts are fine and the overall batted ball and contact profile are in line with career norms aside from HRs. His hard hit rate is just under 30%. Four of his nine HRs did come in one start at Wrigley Field and he did have a couple of other poor starts related to control. I think he’ll be fine (but maybe not 2015 fine). His cost has been reduced (under $10K on FanDuel) to reflect his issues.
Value Tier Three
Michael Pineda is a flawed pitcher, but is now priced as such. For less than $8K we can consider taking advantage of his upside in GPPs, while hoping for HR & BABIP regression to set in. These things don’t always happen magically, adjustments (sometimes major ones) need to be made, but pitchers are generally capable of making these adjustments because you don’t often see HR rates above 20 or BABIPs above .350 last through an entire season. There’s upside to be found here in a fairly neutral matchup.
John Lackey (3) is a pretty good pitcher in a pretty good spot with more strikeout upside than normal tonight. He stands to generate some extra value from this spot more often than not for about $9K on FanDuel. His $11.1K price tag on DraftKings would knock him to the bottom of the next tier though. He’s not Syndergaard or Scherzer and shouldn’t be priced like them despite the matchup.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jaime Garcia – I quickly looked at his numbers and remembered a couple of strong starts, thinking I’d really like him today, but the deeper I went, the less impressive it got. He’s missing bats and the contact profile is still great, so it really seems the control has failed him on a number of occasions so far. Then you see how seldom the Angels strike out and all of a sudden he looks about a break even proposition for just under $9K.
Jhoulys Chacin has trailed off a bit in recent starts against good offenses, but this is not a good offense and he’s still at a below average price because his ERA hasn’t matched the peripherals behind it. If I had told you that he’d have a 23.1 K%/10.7 SwStr% through five starts back in March, the Braves would be thrilled.
Kenta Maeda may have hit his price point, especially on DraftKings where he’s exactly $10K. The Mets haven’t seen him, so perhaps there’s still that element in play, but teams get better video and report on guys these days and they should know what he does by now. He’s been comped to prime Iwakuma recently and if that’s the case the cost is about accurate now and we have to expect the strand rate to drop about 15 points, while the BABIP rises 30 to 40. The Mets will be patient and challenge him as the Blue Jays did.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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