Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 7th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-08-10 16:14:09

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Vogelsong	SFG	CHC	286.1	4.05	4.20	1.31	52.6%	18.5%	8.3%	1.04	1.09
Lester	CHC	SFG	352.1	2.76	3.10	1.13	65.0%	24.9%	5.6%	0.69	1.32
De La Rosa	COL	WAS	282.1	4.37	4.05	1.30	40.0%	19.4%	9.5%	1.08	1.71
Zimmermann	WAS	COL	334.1	3.01	3.48	1.15	52.6%	20.7%	4.0%	0.67	1.11
Kershaw	LAD	PIT	346.1	2.03	2.10	0.88	66.7%	32.6%	4.5%	0.52	1.85
Cole	PIT	LAD	275.1	2.97	3.09	1.15	28.6%	24.6%	6.2%	0.62	1.73
Dickey	TOR	NYY	359.2	3.85	4.33	1.23	47.6%	17.3%	8.1%	1.08	1.14
Eovaldi	NYY	TOR	317	4.34	3.94	1.39	50.0%	16.6%	5.6%	0.65	1.54
Kelly	BOS	DET	184.2	5.12	4.23	1.44	40.0%	17.2%	9.2%	0.93	1.88
Norris	DET	BOS	37.1	3.62	4.97	1.34		17.0%	11.3%	1.21	0.71
Pelfrey	MIN	CLE	142	4.37	4.93	1.50		10.6%	8.7%	0.76	1.94
Anderson	CLE	MIN	45.1	3.38	4.64	1.06		10.1%	3.9%	1.19	1.51
Degrom	NYM	TBR	273.2	2.40	3.08	1.02	50.0%	25.8%	6.2%	0.53	1.33
Odorizzi	TBR	NYM	271.2	3.64	3.70	1.22	36.8%	22.8%	7.5%	0.93	0.78
Fernandez	MIA	ATL	89.2	2.31	2.35	0.98	75.0%	32.9%	6.2%	0.50	1.42
Teheran	ATL	MIA	352.1	3.53	3.84	1.19	70.0%	20.7%	6.9%	1.02	0.92
Danks	CHW	KCR	308	4.76	4.56	1.44	50.0%	15.6%	8.0%	1.17	1.01
Volquez	KCR	CHW	324.2	3.10	4.26	1.25	50.0%	17.5%	8.9%	0.75	1.51
Lynn	STL	MIL	325	2.80	3.70	1.26	60.0%	22.5%	8.1%	0.61	1.18
Cravy	MIL	STL	15	3.00	4.46	1.27		15.3%	6.8%	0.60	1.13
Iglesias	CIN	ARI	47.1	5.13	3.70	1.39		22.3%	7.1%	0.95	1.02
Anderson	ARI	CIN	219.1	4.19	4.04	1.33	40.0%	18.6%	7.1%	1.15	1.21
Keuchel	HOU	OAK	357	2.67	2.91	1.09	50.0%	20.2%	6.0%	0.48	3.63
Gray	OAK	HOU	371.2	2.69	3.50	1.11	60.0%	21.0%	7.6%	0.56	2.01
Gausman	BAL	LAA	161	3.69	3.99	1.26	37.5%	19.0%	7.4%	0.73	1.14
Heaney	LAA	BAL	75	3.48	3.85	1.07	25.0%	17.9%	4.6%	1.08	1.16
Nola	PHI	SDP	18.2	3.38	3.27	0.96		20.8%	4.2%	1.93	1.75
Shields	SDP	PHI	366.2	3.41	3.49	1.22	42.9%	21.7%	6.1%	1.08	1.35
Hamels	TEX	SEA	341	2.98	3.27	1.16	58.8%	24.4%	7.1%	0.74	1.53
Iwakuma	SEA	TEX	235.1	3.75	3.06	1.07	60.0%	21.3%	3.2%	1.22	1.70

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Expect side-pots, because a lot of players are going to Raise or go All-in on today’s slate.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at PIT) – The DFS community will be waiting on pins and needles to see if Kershaw is a late scratch from tonight’s start, given the hip issues that have recently plagued him (and his DFS owners). He’s the most expensive arm on a day full of aces, but such is the case when the best pitcher in baseball is on a run of dominance. We all know about the 37 consecutive innings of scoreless baseball, but if we go back further we see that he has an ERA of 0.38 over his last six starts, with 61 strikeouts and three walks allowed in 48.0 innings, or a clean 8.0 innings per start.

Jose Fernandez MIA (at ATL) – Freddie Freeman was back in Atlanta’s lineup for about three minutes before he was back on the disabled list, and a Braves squad that’s sans Freddie is a dream scenario for Big Fern. The Braves haven’t struck out much this season but Fernandez has the repertoire to raise that K rate, and if his pitch command is on point then the right-hander could be looking at his third double-digit strikeout game in the past 16 days.

Jacob deGrom NYM (at TB) – The Rays have been pasting the baseball over the past week but much of that damage has come against southpaws, against whom Tampa Bay enjoys a 750 OPS, which is 76 points higher than their team OPS against right-handed pitchers. He seems to get better with every start, and deGrom has backed up such hyperbole with a 1.30 ERA and 33 strikeouts against just four walks in 27.7 innings over his last four turns. He could be the silent assassin in the NL Cy Young race.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (at OAK) – Keuchel has been somewhat tougher to predict lately, with rough patches sandwiched around his 13-K start against the Rangers on July 19, with zero runs and just two baserunners allowed in 7.0 innings. The A’s have been depleted by one Ben Zobrist but the offense remains otherwise intact after the trade deadline, and the recent addition of fan favorite Coco Crisp could fortify the lineup, but some of the stars of the first half – Stephen Vogt, Billy Burns – haven’t shown up in the second. Keuchel might cruise through this game.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. HOU) – Houston is a formidable opponent, and the acquisition of Carlos Gomez only raises the threat level. Looking at season stats for the Astros fails to appreciate the impact of Carlos Correa and one can only imagine this lineup after an injection of George Springer. For his part, Gray has been dominant over his last three starts while shutting down the powerful offenses of the Blue Jays and Dodgers (as well as the Indians). His total from the last three games: a 1.17 ERA over 23.0 innings, with 19 strikeouts and 23 baserunners (seven walks).

Lance Lynn STL (at MIL) – The deadline purge took Carlos Gomez, Aramis Ramirez, and Gerardo Parra away from the Brewers’ lineup, and Lynn will now reap the benefits of facing a lineup with limited power resources. Everyone once in awhile Lynn has a hiccup, and though his hiccups have been a little more frequent lately (two in his last five starts), their frequency should leave room for Lynn to spin his standard seven innings of two-run baseball.

Gerrit Cole PIT (vs. LAD) – Cole does his thing every ballgame: he allows a couple of runs, strikes out a batter per frame, and walks a batter per game. He is one of the most trustworthy pitchers in baseball, giving up more than three runs just once in 21 starts this season. He is unlikely to post a GPP-winning score but is typically a solid choice for cash games, though today’s matchup with the mashing Dodgers presents an opportunity to fade Cole with so many intriguing arms at the helm.

Aaron Nola PHI (at SD) – Nola gets the Padre push up the rankings, particularly since his price has not been impacted on DraftKings ($6000), making him the perfect SP2 to pair with an All-in ace. Nola has been solid through three starts this season, though he has enjoyed a soft run of opponents: Tampa Bay, Chicago Cubs, and Atlanta. He’ll get one more crack at an easy foe before the true tests begin (Nola could face Arizona and Toronto in his next two turns).

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Vogelsong	0.355	4.93	0.299	3.33	0.236	0.683	0.284	4.22	0.248	84.71	18.5%
Lester	0.311	2.51	0.280	2.83	0.262	0.687	0.303	2.85	0.236	105.64	24.9%
De La Rosa	0.281	3.68	0.331	4.58	0.246	0.689	0.273	4.37	0.237	94.60	19.4%
Zimmermann	0.309	3.24	0.268	2.80	0.282	0.803	0.307	2.98	0.254	92.02	20.7%
Kershaw	0.233	1.82	0.237	2.08	0.255	0.695	0.281	1.94	0.196	101.96	32.6%
Cole	0.295	2.30	0.292	3.58	0.252	0.756	0.310	2.94	0.24	100.53	24.6%
Dickey	0.303	3.30	0.321	4.30	0.260	0.759	0.261	4.43	0.234	103.43	17.3%
Eovaldi	0.351	4.40	0.296	4.29	0.255	0.758	0.332	3.43	0.285	96.04	16.6%
Kelly	0.320	4.24	0.341	6.10	0.273	0.753	0.302	4.33	0.262	93.59	17.2%
Norris	0.361	5.19	0.309	3.14	0.250	0.704	0.252	5.00	0.23	60.09	17.0%
Pelfrey	0.322	3.99	0.356	4.72	0.242	0.694	0.306	4.64	0.285	91.64	10.6%
Anderson	0.342	5.57	0.252	1.48	0.244	0.689	0.238	4.55	0.24	87.43	10.1%
Degrom	0.271	2.27	0.236	2.51	0.238	0.674	0.274	2.60	0.21	101.31	25.8%
Odorizzi	0.284	3.53	0.316	3.78	0.241	0.679	0.285	3.57	0.233	97.21	22.8%
Fernandez	0.304	2.23	0.188	2.37	0.258	0.686	0.289	2.00	0.198	96.21	32.9%
Teheran	0.331	4.01	0.278	3.07	0.243	0.650	0.283	3.85	0.241	98.15	20.7%
Danks	0.296	4.07	0.363	5.01	0.271	0.707	0.300	4.59	0.271	100.00	15.6%
Volquez	0.301	3.05	0.298	3.15	0.253	0.698	0.268	4.03	0.232	94.91	17.5%
Lynn	0.313	3.30	0.283	2.42	0.258	0.706	0.298	3.22	0.237	104.68	22.5%
Cravy	0.310	2.70	0.343	3.24	0.263	0.729	0.311	3.56	0.273	71.67	15.3%
Iglesias	0.382	7.59	0.284	3.12	0.262	0.727	0.331	3.75	0.267	82.00	22.3%
Anderson	0.311	3.81	0.352	4.50	0.254	0.717	0.303	4.23	0.265	92.08	18.6%
Keuchel	0.227	2.44	0.283	2.75	0.241	0.677	0.280	2.98	0.23	104.45	20.2%
Gray	0.264	2.35	0.266	3.09	0.247	0.747	0.265	3.22	0.217	100.24	21.0%
Gausman	0.311	3.18	0.289	4.35	0.248	0.705	0.292	3.57	0.246	80.32	19.0%
Heaney	0.236	2.03	0.319	4.28	0.257	0.699	0.259	3.99	0.233	81.07	17.9%
Nola	0.390	3.68	0.210	3.18	0.244	0.679	0.220	4.75	0.217	89.33	20.8%
Shields	0.332	3.53	0.307	3.29	0.248	0.670	0.300	3.77	0.251	103.35	21.7%
Hamels	0.286	1.75	0.288	3.31	0.257	0.698	0.295	3.18	0.232	104.67	24.4%
Iwakuma	0.314	3.68	0.270	3.82	0.263	0.751	0.282	3.61	0.246	90.41	21.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Cole Hamels TEX (at SEA) – The left-hander gets solid platoon advantage on Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, and though Hamels has to watch out for Cruz, such is the case for any pitcher when the boomstick is swinging at full volume. Hamels has been lit for five or more runs in three of last four starts – the other was his 13-K no-hitter – so it takes some playing the southpaw today involves a lot more gamble than one would expect when an elite left-hander faces the weak-hitting Mariners.

James Shields SD (vs. PHI) – Who is James Shields? Is he the control artist who walked 2.1 batters per nine innings for the first nine years of his career? Is he the strikeout machine whose command suffered and ERA rose to 4.26 by the end of June? Or is he the Shields of the past seven starts, who has a 2.57 ERA but a modest 36 strikeouts (as well as 18 walks) in 42.0 innings of work? We may not have an answer by the day’s end, as the Philly offense has the ineptitude to mask a pitcher’s own weaknesses.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. TEX) – The right-hander looked to be getting his game back on track, having spun 20.7 innings of 1.74 ERA baseball against the tough offenses of the Yankees, Angels, and Tigers. Everything was clicking along when another blow-up destroyed his line, as Iwakuma gave up six runs against the Diamondbacks. He rebounded with a single-run effort against the Twins in his last start, and there’s little telling if we’re in for another rocky ride tonight against the Rangers. Iwakuma is a highly volatile play that could pay dividends in GPP formats.

Julio Teheran (vs. MIA) – Though he seems to have lost touch with the pitcher who posted a 3.03 ERA over 406.7 innings from 2013-14, Teheran does flash glimpses of that talent, and a weak offense like that of the Marlins (.294 wOBA and 672 OPS this season) could bring out the best in the right-hander, just as it has in his other two starts against Miami this year: 11.7 innings with two earned runs allowed, two walks and nine strikeouts.

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. NYM) – Odorizzi has not been that impressive since returning from the disabled list, with a 4.00 ERA and just 27.0 innings pitched in five starts. The Mets have added some punch with the acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes, and though Odorizzi has the upside to post a string of zeroes and a K per inning, he also carries the risk of a single-point day of DFS.

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. COL) – It might be best to avoid Zimm in the short term, as he has allowed a 5.46 ERA with just 22 strikeouts over his last 28.0 innings. The low K count is standard issue for Zimm these days, who preference for pitch-count efficiency harms his K totals as well as his fantasy value.

Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. BAL)
Edinson Volquez KC (vs. CHW)
Kevin Gausman BAL (at LAA)
Daniel Norris DET (vs. BOS)
Raisel Iglesias CIN (at ARI)
Cody Anderson CLE (vs. MIN)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at CLE)
Chase Anderson ARI (vs. CIN)
John Danks CHW (at KC)
Tyler Cravy MIL (vs. STL)
Jorge de la Rosa COL (at WAS)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Joe Kelly BOS (at DET)
Nate Eovaldi NYY (vs. TOR)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at NYY) – It’s shaping up to be a slugfest tonight in the Bronx.

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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