Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 10th

by PSporer Last Updated 2016-06-11 03:08:37

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Pelfrey	DET	NYY	223.1	4.39	4.75	1.54		12.0%	6.9%	0.85	1.85
Sabathia	NYY	DET	219.2	4.22	4.17	1.38	25.0%	19.3%	7.6%	1.23	1.37
Hellickson	PHI	WAS	214.2	4.36	3.95	1.29		20.7%	6.5%	1.38	1.18
Strasburg	WAS	PHI	206.1	3.23	2.82	1.10	52.4%	30.4%	5.7%	0.96	1.22
Wacha	STL	PIT	247.2	3.85	4.11	1.29	53.3%	20.0%	7.9%	0.87	1.43
Cole	PIT	STL	274.1	2.66	3.49	1.14	28.6%	22.9%	5.7%	0.46	1.54
Gausman	BAL	TOR	166	4.01	3.70	1.21	37.5%	22.1%	6.1%	1.41	1.22
Estrada	TOR	BAL	255.2	2.92	4.58	1.02	27.8%	19.1%	8.3%	1.09	0.65
McCullers	HOU	TBR	153.1	3.40	3.63	1.27		25.7%	9.6%	0.65	1.64
Andriese	TBR	HOU	105	3.51	4.10	1.21		17.0%	6.0%	0.77	1.45
Gray	OAK	CIN	261	3.34	3.95	1.19	60.0%	20.0%	7.8%	0.90	1.75
Desclafani	CIN	OAK	184.2	4.05	4.08	1.35	20.0%	19.2%	7.0%	0.83	1.34
Hammel	CHC	ATL	233.2	3.31	3.64	1.14	47.4%	23.8%	6.7%	1.04	1.06
Norris	ATL	CHC	129	6.21	4.46	1.59	26.7%	17.8%	9.4%	1.47	1.37
Wright	BOS	MIN	147.1	3.18	4.52	1.21		18.9%	9.5%	0.92	1.08
Gibson	MIN	BOS	215.1	4.05	4.26	1.33	52.6%	16.9%	8.4%	0.84	2.02
Kennedy	KCR	CWS	233.2	4.04	3.74	1.27	47.6%	24.3%	7.7%	1.58	0.90
Sale	CWS	KCR	293.2	3.16	2.82	1.05	64.3%	29.7%	5.1%	0.92	1.15
Harvey	NYM	MIL	256.2	3.30	3.52	1.13		23.0%	5.3%	0.91	1.25
Guerra	MIL	NYM	46.1	3.88	4.02	1.25		22.1%	7.9%	0.97	1.10
Cashner	SDP	COL	237.1	4.44	4.21	1.45	75.0%	19.3%	8.5%	0.95	1.59
Gray	COL	SDP	93	5.42	3.54	1.42		25.1%	7.7%	0.97	1.55
Nicolino	MIA	ARI	119.1	4.15	5.57	1.30		8.3%	6.7%	0.91	1.16
Corbin	ARI	MIA	157.1	4.12	3.79	1.31		19.6%	5.7%	1.20	1.77
Kluber	CLE	LAA	301.2	3.58	3.10	1.06	57.1%	26.9%	5.2%	0.87	1.26
Santiago	LAA	CLE	246.1	3.98	4.50	1.27	16.7%	20.7%	9.3%	1.57	0.64
Holland	TEX	SEA	118.1	4.72	4.82	1.30		14.9%	7.0%	1.29	0.99
Iwakuma	SEA	TEX	206	3.76	3.69	1.14	60.0%	20.5%	4.7%	1.22	1.40
Kershaw	LAD	SFG	325.1	1.94	2.21	0.81	66.7%	33.6%	3.9%	0.53	1.78
Cueto	SFG	LAD	299.2	3.06	3.78	1.11	76.2%	20.6%	5.4%	0.72	1.33

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF) – Is there a price you wouldn’t pay for Kershaw? I can say that $13,900 at DK and $13,100 at FD aren’t too high for me. He is unquestionably the best pitcher in the game. The Giants are ostensibly a difficult matchup, but he has a 1.23 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in 117 IP at AT&T Park.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (PHI) – Can you believe Stras has built his 2.85 ERA without even facing Philly? He wasted no time trolling the DFS community this year with an unspectacular debut in Atlanta against the lowly Braves, but he’s been excellent since then. In fact, dating back to last August, he’s been one of the game’s best. His 2.42 ERA and 0.94 WHIP are both 4th among qualified SPs. His 11.9 K/9 is tops. I want to say that Kershaw and Strasburg will be super-owned, but this is a deep slate and having Coors on it really brings a lot of different pitchers into play.

Chris Sale CWS (KC) – You’d think we DFSers are feeling the pinch of Sale’s new strikeout-lite approach. He’s been opting for efficiency and lower-stress pitches and the result has been an eight-percentage point drop in strikeout rate to 24%. However, he averaged 22 PPG on DK last year and he’s up at 24.6 PPG so far this year. The Royals are striking out more this year, going from 15% to 18% against lefties. Sale’s still a stud and he could save you a few bucks if you want some more Coors action that Kersh/Stras might not allow.

Johnny Cueto SF (LAD) – Cueto has been very similar to Sale this year with a 24.4 PPG rate at DK, but he costs $1300 more so he doesn’t make sense over Sale over there. He’s actually $400 less expensive at FD, but that’s probably not enough savings to take the risk of having your pitcher face Kershaw. When the win matters so much, it’s hard to find a case for Cueto being a positive EV play.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jason Hammel CHC (at ATL) – He’s been even better than he was to start 2015. He carried a sub-3.00 ERA through the All-Star break last year, but this year he’s down at 2.14 and this incredible team support has him at 7-1 already. He was 10-7 on the year in 2015. His strikeouts took a bit to get going this year, but they’re on track after the slow start. He had a modest 20% mark through six starts, but he’s up at 25% in his last five. Braves are baseball’s worst team against righties (69 wRC+). I’m reluctant to call him cheap, but he’s cheap-er than the frontline options on a Coors night so he’s going to get plenty of run.

Matt Harvey NYM (at MIL) – It’s only two starts, but with track record and magnitude of greatness that Harvey has reached, it doesn’t take a lot to buy back in. We just had to see him actually do it again after the struggles in May. Back-to-back seven inning gems only lacked the strikeout flare we’re used to from him, though his swinging strike was at 12% against the White Sox while he took more of a weak contact approach in Miami (32% soft contact – highest since April 16th). The Brewers have baseball’s highest strikeout rate against righties at 26% and peak Matt Harvey is impervious to venues so Miller Park doesn’t exactly scare me, even if it isn’t quite 100% Harvey just yet. At $8300 on DK and $8700 on FD, he’s priced to buy if you still want a premium option capable of matching the big boys while still leaving room for a couple Coors studs.

Corey Kluber CLE (at LAA) – How strong is your stomach? Kluber’s volatility has tested DFSers this year and I’m sure have just flat out quit him. He’s a poor manager decision from four straight gems: 7 IP/2 ER, 7.3 IP/1 ER, 7 IP/6 ER, and 6 IP/0 ER. It might be hindsight, but he really shouldn’t have come out for the eighth inning in that 6 ER game. He was at 95 pitches. With three runs (including a couple homers), he wasn’t exactly dominating at a level that suggested he was the best option available to Cleveland. He opened 1B-1B-2B and the bullpen allowed the other run. The Angels aren’t a total walkover or a guaranteed DFS boon with a league-best 16% strikeout rate against righties. Hammel is the same price at FD and $300 cheaper at DK and I’d much rather have him in his matchup than Kluber against the Angels.

Lance McCullers HOU (at TB) – The surge in walks has run up his pitch counts and left him unable to fully capitalize on his strikeout tear. He’s up at 29% strikeouts, but also 15% walks. He’s only finished 6 IP in two of the five starts, but Friday offers a chance for #3. The Rays have been powerful with 65 HRs against righties (t-2nd), but their 25% strikeout is also tied for 2nd and McCullers is so filthy that he’s less prone to their all-or-nothing offense. He’s allowed just 0.65 HR/9 in his 153.3 major league innings. League average for starters is 1.2 HR/9.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Pelfrey	0.372	4.83	0.329	4.01	0.246	0.730	0.335	4.38	0.307	0.00	12.0%
Sabathia	0.252	3.92	0.347	4.30	0.274	0.790	0.309	4.37	0.268	0.01	19.3%
Hellickson	0.348	4.40	0.321	4.34	0.246	0.718	0.293	4.31	0.255	0.01	20.7%
Strasburg	0.253	2.62	0.305	3.87	0.242	0.677	0.307	2.80	0.227	0.01	30.4%
Wacha	0.286	3.50	0.320	4.12	0.266	0.741	0.292	3.78	0.246	0.00	20.0%
Cole	0.281	2.27	0.279	3.01	0.265	0.760	0.308	2.75	0.242	0.01	22.9%
Gausman	0.267	2.60	0.360	5.42	0.258	0.772	0.284	4.15	0.245	0.01	22.1%
Estrada	0.266	2.91	0.267	2.94	0.258	0.766	0.209	4.23	0.192	0.00	19.1%
McCullers	0.268	3.46	0.321	3.35	0.243	0.708	0.303	3.21	0.23	0.01	25.7%
Andriese	0.305	3.77	0.277	3.32	0.246	0.742	0.284	3.66	0.248	0.01	17.0%
Gray	0.276	2.69	0.296	4.03	0.246	0.707	0.268	3.78	0.229	0.00	20.0%
Desclafani	0.338	4.73	0.302	3.29	0.249	0.700	0.318	3.67	0.268	0.01	19.2%
Hammel	0.311	2.90	0.282	3.62	0.252	0.671	0.276	3.61	0.227	0.01	23.8%
Norris	0.393	6.50	0.347	5.92	0.248	0.738	0.323	5.05	0.286	0.00	17.8%
Wright	0.279	3.18	0.291	3.17	0.243	0.699	0.250	4.14	0.218	0.01	18.9%
Gibson	0.317	4.47	0.302	3.64	0.271	0.765	0.288	4.09	0.251	0.00	16.9%
Kennedy	0.341	4.17	0.328	3.92	0.249	0.695	0.292	4.50	0.246	0.01	24.3%
Sale	0.259	2.82	0.276	3.22	0.270	0.722	0.298	2.84	0.223	0.01	29.7%
Harvey	0.320	3.78	0.254	2.84	0.255	0.712	0.291	3.28	0.238	0.01	23.0%
Guerra	0.318	4.12	0.303	3.71	0.241	0.712	0.297	3.68	0.246	0.02	22.1%
Cashner	0.363	5.00	0.317	3.97	0.271	0.778	0.321	4.05	0.271	0.00	19.3%
Gray	0.328	4.73	0.345	6.08	0.240	0.677	0.355	3.51	0.275	0.00	25.1%
Nicolino	0.304	4.62	0.331	4.02	0.261	0.754	0.274	4.70	0.268	0.00	8.3%
Corbin	0.271	1.82	0.346	4.77	0.275	0.737	0.311	4.01	0.27	0.01	19.6%
Kluber	0.316	4.01	0.242	3.16	0.254	0.717	0.293	2.99	0.227	0.01	26.9%
Santiago	0.283	2.87	0.331	4.36	0.264	0.727	0.252	4.98	0.228	0.00	20.7%
Holland	0.271	3.38	0.345	5.01	0.261	0.733	0.279	4.78	0.261	0.01	14.9%
Iwakuma	0.311	3.66	0.291	3.85	0.259	0.738	0.282	3.86	0.247	0.01	20.5%
Kershaw	0.216	2.01	0.220	1.91	0.268	0.718	0.269	1.88	0.186	0.01	33.6%
Cueto	0.271	2.50	0.296	3.54	0.243	0.721	0.282	3.26	0.235	0.00	20.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Marco Estrada TOR (BAL) – He was on the cusp of these two tiers because he’s been incredible again this year and at some point we have to stop expecting the other shoe to drop. That doesn’t mean he was stay 100% at this level, but the expected regression floor should probably be raised now. Opposition hasn’t really bothered him during this run since the start of 2015 with a 2.96 ERA against .500 or better teams in 170.3 IP.

What he lacks in strikeout dominance, he makes up in stamina. He and eight others are tied with six starts of 7+ IP (5th-highest total, though many ties yielding 22 arms w/6 or more) including luminaries like Noah Syndergaard, Zack Greinke, and Jon Lester. Plus, he can still post a big strikeout game from time-to-time with four outings of 8+. Baltimore is tough and he’s not cheap, but I’ve come around on his talent and trust him much more than I did just three months ago, let alone last year.

Steven Wright BOS (at MIN) – His results probably belong a tier higher, but the volatility of knuckleballers made it hard for me to slot him any higher. He only has one bad start, but the threat is always there given the uncertainty of knucklers. It’s not the same as with “normal” pitchers. Additionally, the aforementioned results have driven his price sky-high which really curbs the value that he once had. Two starts ago he was $8300 on DK, now he sits 4th behind Kershaw, Stras, and Cueto. I just can’t drum up the confidence to play him at that price point with some many other worthwhile options available, many of them cheaper.

Gerrit Cole PIT (STL) – The results are there, but he just hasn’t been the dominant version that we saw throughout last year. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he’s allowing over a hit per inning. The Cardinals come in with baseball’s top wRC+ against righties at 122, though they’ve been great throughout Cole’s career and he hasn’t had trouble taming them with a 2.91 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Those numbers only come with a 19% strikeout rate which matches his season mark to date. To their credit, DK has discounted him substantially at just $7000 which does give him some intrigue as a secondary lineup option. He was at $9600 just two starts ago. Don’t overrate the name value.

Ian Kennedy KC (at CWS) – I can’t stop staring at Kennedy’s 1.4 HR/9 rate and realizing I can’t come up with a case to send him into US Cellular when so many other options are available. Harvey is cheaper than Kennedy’s $9300 on DK and I’d rather front the extra $400 for Estrada and take my gamble there if that’s where I’m going for the night.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (TEX) – Kuma has been plodding along with a ho-hum season, but he feels close to a big run. He’s gone seven in each of his last three with a bad inning in each being the only real damage. Hits have been drying up a bit more against him lately which usually sparks his streaks. He had a .325 BABIP through is first nine starts and it’s down to .224 in the last three. He won’t sit that low, but he’s a career .272 despite a groundball lean.