Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 17th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-18 03:25:21

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Liriano	PIT	CHC	254.1	3.79	3.74	1.31	12.5%	25.3%	10.3%	0.99	1.84
Arrieta	CHC	PIT	316	1.79	2.90	0.89	50.0%	26.9%	6.3%	0.37	2.45
Ray	ARI	PHI	196.2	3.89	4.02	1.42	33.3%	22.9%	9.4%	0.87	1.35
Morgan	PHI	ARI	132.2	5.16	4.77	1.32		15.2%	5.3%	1.56	0.69
Sanchez	TOR	BAL	177.2	3.29	3.94	1.26		19.6%	10.0%	0.86	2.89
Wright	BAL	TOR	105.2	5.62	5.04	1.51		14.7%	8.7%	1.53	1.03
Gant	ATL	NYM	16	5.63	3.98	1.75		25.3%	12.0%	1.13	1.06
Harvey	NYM	ATL	262.2	3.26	3.51	1.12		23.3%	5.3%	0.89	1.23
Conley	MIA	COL	136.2	3.95	4.15	1.36		21.5%	8.5%	0.86	1.03
Quintana	CWS	CLE	291	3.15	3.61	1.22	50.0%	21.6%	5.1%	0.65	1.42
Bauer	CLE	CWS	244.1	4.31	4.19	1.30	38.5%	22.2%	9.9%	1.07	1.07
Iwakuma	SEA	BOS	213	3.76	3.75	1.14	60.0%	20.2%	4.7%	1.31	1.35
Elias	BOS	SEA	117	4.31	4.34	1.33	26.3%	19.6%	9.2%	1.15	1.25
Samardzija	SFG	TBR	299.2	4.51	4.11	1.26	60.0%	18.6%	5.5%	1.14	1.09
Archer	TBR	SFG	292	3.61	3.25	1.22	55.0%	28.5%	8.2%	1.05	1.36
Lamb	CIN	HOU	91.2	5.50	4.42	1.55		19.7%	8.9%	1.47	1.06
McCullers	HOU	CIN	159.1	3.50	3.66	1.29		25.7%	9.8%	0.62	1.67
Tanaka	NYY	MIN	238.2	3.36	3.52	1.00	66.7%	21.4%	4.6%	1.24	1.57
Dean	MIN	NYY	36.2	4.17	4.47	1.42		18.1%	7.7%	1.23	1.07
Fulmer	DET	KCR	53.2	2.52	3.90	1.14		23.7%	8.7%	0.84	1.43
Ventura	KCR	DET	236.1	4.34	4.15	1.35	44.4%	20.6%	9.2%	0.91	1.62
Hamels	TEX	STL	295.1	3.50	3.58	1.21	58.8%	24.0%	7.6%	1.13	1.59
Wacha	STL	TEX	254.2	3.82	4.12	1.28	53.3%	20.0%	8.0%	0.85	1.46
Shoemaker	LAA	OAK	203.1	4.56	3.82	1.26	44.4%	21.7%	5.7%	1.46	0.97
Graveman	OAK	LAA	177	4.47	4.50	1.50		15.9%	8.1%	1.32	1.75
Davies	MIL	LAD	96.2	3.82	4.26	1.19		18.7%	8.6%	0.93	1.86
Urias	LAD	MIL	17	5.82	3.65	1.59		27.3%	9.1%	2.12	1.12
Ross	WAS	SDP	148.1	3.34	3.90	1.13		21.2%	7.1%	0.79	1.45
Friedrich	SDP	WAS	92.1	4.09	4.40	1.61		18.1%	10.5%	0.58	1.58

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at PIT) – Arrieta is playing the only early game on today’s slate, so he won’t be available in many formats, but he is also clearly the best option available if playing an All Day lineup. His last start was a bit disappointing, in the sense that he only struck out three Braves over seven full frames, but the 12 Ks that he posted in his previous start (versus Arizona) were a season-high, so there’s no reason to think that he can’t rebound today with his typical K-per-inning while holding the opposition to two or fewer earned runs, as he has done in 10 of 13 starts this season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at MIN) – There’s a sizable gap between Arrieta and the rest of the pitchers on today’s slate, but there is a thick tier of intriguing options and Tanaka leads the charge. He is a much better pitcher when he gets an extra day of rest: on four days rest he’s recorded a 4.70 ERA, 40 hits and six homers in 38.0 innings; with five days rest, the ERA is just 1.80 with 23 hits allowed and just one home run in 35.2 frames. He gets the extra day of rest for today’s start against the Twins, whose 3.88 runs per game is the second-lowest mark in the American League.

Jose Quintana CHW (at CLE) – The secret to Quintana’s success this season has been keeping the ball in the yard, with just five homers allowed in 83.0 innings, though three of those bombs actually came in his last start, a fact that becomes all the more puzzling when considering that he was facing a Royals team that has the fewest team homers in the American League. Adding to the curiosity is that Quintana struck out 10 KC batters, tying his season high on strikeouts against a ball club that is notorious for making contact and avoiding Ks.

Michael Fulmer DET (at KC) – There might not be a hotter pitcher in the game right now than Detroit’s rookie starter. He has a scoreless streak that extends to his last 29.2 innings pitched, as the last run that he surrendered came May 21 against the Rays, a game in which he gave up just one run and struck out 11 batters over 7.0 innings. His peripherals have been a bit more modest during his four-start scoreless streak, with just 19 strikeouts and nine walks across 28.1 frames, but nobody can hit the kid; he has allowed three or fewer hits in each of the four starts, with just nine total hits allowed.

Matt Harvey NYM (vs. ATL) – Harvey gave up two or more runs in each of his first ten starts, but he has kept fewer than two runners from crossing the plate in each of his last three. The strikeouts still haven’t caught up to the incredible heights that he has established in the past, as even in his last three starts Harvey has whiffed a modest 17 batters in 20.0 innings. The velocity is creeping up, with four of his top five average pitch-speeds this season coming in his last five games, topping 95.5 mph in each outing. Prior to his nice three-start run, Harvey was mashed for five or more earned runs in three straight starts, b it facing the Braves will give him the opportunity to tilt the scales of his past several starts and perhaps restore the confidence of his fantasy owners.

Cole Hamels TEX (at STL) – Hamels is as consistent as they come without being elite, chewing up innings – 20 or more outs in eight of 13 starts – and sustaining a K-per-inning this season. His Achilles’ heel has been the long ball, with 15 homers allowed in 83.0 innings and finishing homer-free in just three of his turns this season. Recently, he has lacked the K-count to make up the difference, as The lefty hasn’t struck out more than five batters in any of his last four starts, despite one of those games being against the empty-swinging Astros, a club against whom he had recorded 11 strikeouts less than a month ago.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Liriano	0.286	3.67	0.305	3.82	0.245	0.721	0.293	3.81	0.231	0.01	25.3%
Arrieta	0.221	1.41	0.230	2.13	0.265	0.738	0.244	2.41	0.182	0.01	26.9%
Ray	0.296	2.80	0.341	4.31	0.250	0.673	0.325	3.77	0.259	0.01	22.9%
Morgan	0.306	4.30	0.355	5.40	0.267	0.764	0.290	4.93	0.274	0.00	15.2%
Sanchez	0.343	3.69	0.240	2.89	0.258	0.768	0.268	4.05	0.228	0.00	19.6%
Wright	0.404	5.36	0.341	5.82	0.259	0.778	0.305	5.49	0.285	0.00	14.7%
Gant					0.241	0.712	0.386	4.25	0.292	0.00	25.3%
Harvey	0.319	3.77	0.252	2.78	0.252	0.673	0.289	3.24	0.236	0.01	23.3%
Gray	0.314	4.28	0.337	5.75	0.259	0.695	0.339	3.48	0.265	0.00	25.2%
Conley	0.352	5.84	0.311	3.54	0.255	0.703	0.315	3.80	0.257	0.01	21.5%
Quintana	0.262	3.18	0.314	3.15	0.265	0.733	0.321	3.03	0.26	0.00	21.6%
Bauer	0.301	4.03	0.317	4.58	0.249	0.697	0.282	4.16	0.234	0.00	22.2%
Iwakuma	0.314	3.62	0.294	3.89	0.272	0.768	0.279	4.01	0.247	0.01	20.2%
Elias	0.293	5.26	0.334	4.04	0.260	0.733	0.285	4.54	0.247	0.01	19.6%
Samardzija	0.346	5.50	0.297	3.60	0.244	0.710	0.300	4.03	0.263	0.00	18.6%
Archer	0.278	3.41	0.302	3.81	0.262	0.736	0.302	3.32	0.229	0.01	28.5%
Lamb	0.427	7.36	0.350	5.03	0.244	0.744	0.333	4.79	0.288	0.00	19.7%
McCullers	0.270	3.46	0.326	3.55	0.244	0.703	0.308	3.20	0.232	0.01	25.7%
Tanaka	0.275	3.52	0.283	3.22	0.243	0.696	0.245	3.81	0.218	0.01	21.4%
Dean			0.362	3.68	0.254	0.731	0.318	4.36	0.28	0.03	18.1%
Fulmer	0.243	1.13	0.302	3.64	0.268	0.731	0.262	3.58	0.212	0.03	23.7%
Ventura	0.320	5.00	0.306	3.66	0.269	0.744	0.296	4.02	0.247	0.01	20.6%
Hamels	0.278	2.09	0.308	3.90	0.236	0.680	0.287	3.89	0.235	0.01	24.0%
Wacha	0.287	3.55	0.314	4.02	0.258	0.739	0.288	3.76	0.243	0.00	20.0%
Shoemaker	0.312	5.05	0.330	3.99	0.250	0.701	0.298	4.19	0.258	0.01	21.7%
Graveman	0.341	3.42	0.357	5.61	0.254	0.717	0.315	4.84	0.285	0.00	15.9%
Davies	0.299	2.70	0.296	4.73	0.242	0.720	0.258	4.06	0.226	0.01	18.7%
Urias					0.235	0.688	0.356	4.95	0.286	0.00	27.3%
Ross	0.341	3.46	0.224	3.24	0.239	0.676	0.269	3.52	0.224	0.01	21.2%
Friedrich	0.292	3.26	0.350	4.70	0.266	0.772	0.337	3.79	0.279	0.00	18.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Chris Archer TB (vs. SF) – Every time that it looks like Archer has turned a corner this season, he circles back to square one with another disaster start, so take his 20 strikeouts over the last two outings with a grain of salt. He has given up three or more runs in each of his last five turns (and six of seven). His strikeouts will likely determine his fantasy value today, as Archer has exceeded 22 points on DraftKings seven times in 14 starts, but he has slipped below eight points on DK in five other turns. It’s hit or miss with Archer, and though a third consecutive strong start would go a long way toward resurrecting his difficult season, it would also be the first time that he has gone three strong in a row in 2016.

Joe Ross WAS (at SD) – Ross struck out eight Phillies in his last start, his second highest K-count of the season, but his three earned runs allowed over 7.0 innings put his ERA over 3.00 for the first time this season. Strikeouts aren’t really his game so much as run prevention, but the Padres are notorious for spiking opposing pitcher K rates, so Ross could be looking at another outing with a half-dozen or more strikeouts. The caveat is that the Padres are very familiar with Ross’ approach, given that he got his start in the organization and that his slider-heavy approach is similar to that of his brother, Padres pitcher Tyson Ross.

Jeff Samardzija SF (at TB) – The Shark cruised through his first ten starts of the season with a 2.54 ERA, but he has fallen off track in his last few turns. He has pitched only 14.2 innings over his last three starts, never surpassing 5.0 frames in either of the three games and getting hit up for a 7.36 ERA and 22 hits. The worst start was against the Cardinals two starts ago, a game in which he surrendered four home runs among nine hits, leading to six earned runs over 5.0 innings. His strikeouts have been modest as well, and the extra homers and could loom large against a Rays offense that has the third-most homers in the American League, though Tampa Bay’s standing as the team with the second-most Ks in the AL could help him to get back on the strikeout count.

Jon Gray COL (at MIA)

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. CHW)

Lance McCullers HOU (vs. CIN)

Julio Urias LAD (vs. MIL) – Urias struggled mightily through his first two career starts, but the southpaw phenom has flashed his incredible potential over his last two turns, with 14 strikeouts and just two walks over his last two starts, stretching 9.1 innings. And therein lies the issue with rostering the rookie, as the Dodgers are being very careful with the teenager’s workload, maxing him out at 86 pitches in his four career starts, resulting in 5.1 innings or fewer in each start. Such a limited innings count will greatly limit his DFS value, and Urias will need to be efficient as well as effective in order to make a big dent in your fantasy score.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. TEX)

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at BAL)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at OAK)

Adam Conley MIA (vs. COL)

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. DET)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at BOS)

Robbie Ray ARI (at PHI)

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. CHC) – Liriano has always been a volatile pitcher, as a lack of command often undoes the lefty’s best-laid plans, though his ability to invoke empty swings with his slider has often counterbalanced the issue and he can spike outstanding starts. Such has not been the case this season, as the wildness has reached new levels (5.5 BB/9) and his inability to keep the ball down in the zone has resulted in a whopping 13 homers allowed in 67.2 innings (1.7 HR/9). Facing the Cubs, who specialize in power and patience, could have disastrous results.

Zach Davies MIL (at LAD)

Roenis Elias BOS (vs. SEA)

Pat Dean MIN (vs. NYY)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. LAA)

John Lamb CIN (at HOU)

John Gant ATL (at NYM)

Christian Friedrich SD (vs. WAS)

Mike Wright BAL (vs. TOR)

Adam Morgan PHI (vs. ARI)

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