Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, June 26th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-06-30 12:49:01

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Kluber	CLE	BAL	339.1	2.81	2.66	1.11	57.1%	28.2%	5.3%	0.58	1.53
Chen	BAL	CLE	266.2	3.34	3.80	1.20	31.6%	18.8%	4.9%	1.15	1.04
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	322.2	2.71	2.81	1.06	60.0%	28.9%	5.9%	0.67	0.83
Harang	PHI	WAS	299.1	3.52	4.22	1.31	75.0%	18.1%	7.6%	0.75	0.94
Perez	ATL	PIT	45.1	2.78	4.34	1.37		18.8%	10.9%	0.79	1.83
Liriano	PIT	ATL	250.2	3.34	3.30	1.19	12.5%	26.9%	10.5%	0.75	2.05
Martinez	TEX	TOR	224.2	3.89	5.04	1.41	27.3%	13.0%	8.6%	0.96	0.86
Buehrle	TOR	TEX	294.1	3.55	4.39	1.33	60.0%	13.2%	5.2%	0.80	1.34
Quintana	CHW	DET	287.2	3.50	3.61	1.28	50.0%	20.9%	6.5%	0.56	1.37
Sanchez	DET	CHW	224	3.94	3.68	1.13	41.2%	20.7%	6.2%	0.76	1.18
Anderson	LAD	MIA	125.1	3.16	3.51	1.32	20.0%	15.7%	7.0%	0.50	3.18
Nicolino	MIA	LAD
Cueto	CIN	NYM	334.1	2.45	3.16	0.96	76.2%	24.9%	6.2%	0.86	1.27
Syndergaard	NYM	CIN	44.2	4.03	3.11	1.32		24.9%	5.2%	0.81	1.37
Porcello	BOS	TBR	291.1	4.08	3.94	1.26	55.6%	16.2%	5.1%	0.96	1.51
Colome	TBR	BOS	79.2	3.95	4.54	1.36		15.5%	8.4%	1.13	1.28
May	MIN	MIL	119.1	5.51	3.84	1.47		20.8%	7.1%	0.98	0.96
Lohse	MIL	MIN	284	4.37	4.06	1.21	50.0%	17.3%	5.4%	1.24	0.99
Eovaldi	NYY	HOU	276	4.53	3.95	1.40	50.0%	16.4%	5.3%	0.72	1.48
Velasquez	HOU	NYY	13	4.15	4.49	1.69		29.3%	17.2%	0.69	0.39
Arrieta	CHC	STL	247.2	2.73	2.86	1.03	50.0%	27.0%	6.4%	0.47	1.73
Lackey	STL	CHC	287.2	3.69	3.76	1.26	57.9%	19.0%	5.6%	0.97	1.28
Volquez	KCR	OAK	276.1	3.13	4.24	1.23	50.0%	17.4%	8.8%	0.72	1.51
Hahn	OAK	KCR	158	3.25	3.86	1.18	57.1%	18.6%	8.2%	0.40	2.10
Walker	SEA	LAA	116.1	4.18	3.80	1.36		22.2%	8.8%	1.08	1.25
Shoemaker	LAA	SEA	208.2	3.80	3.36	1.13	44.4%	22.4%	4.7%	1.25	0.95
Ray	ARI	SDP	59	4.88	4.49	1.46	33.3%	16.4%	7.8%	1.07	0.87
Ross	SDP	ARI	285.1	3.06	3.26	1.29	66.7%	24.4%	9.6%	0.50	2.81
Bettis	COL	SFG	74.1	5.33	4.05	1.52		16.7%	7.4%	0.85	1.58
Hudson	SFG	COL	275	3.86	3.79	1.27	68.4%	14.2%	4.8%	0.85	2.24

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at PHI) – Integrate arguably the game’s top pitcher this season coming off of a two-start run of absolute ownership over opposing batters (three base runners against 26 strikeouts in 18 shutout frames), facing the weakest offense in the game, and you have the recipe for the highest price tag attached to a pitcher this season (Draft Kings has him at a $14,000 salary). Scherzer is the rare pitcher who can justify such a cost, leading the majors in WHIP and FIP and registering enough fantasy points to turn a theoretical profit on a $14k investment in 5 of his last 7 turns on the rubber. There’s no question that he’s the top option today, but whether he’s a good value is a very different question.

Corey Kluber CLE (at BAL) – If you ever wondered why win-loss records take such a beating the statistical community, then look no further than Kluber – his 27.9 percent strikeout rate and 5.4 percent walk rate are dead ringers for his strike zone numbers from his Cy-winning season of 2014, but his record stands at just 3 wins and 9 losses, leading the American League in the L column. Kluber has dominated over the past two-plus seasons despite a .327 BABIP in 486.7 innings, a scary thought for AL hitters if the right-hander is due to regress toward the league norms.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. STL) – Over the past two seasons, Arrieta has a combined 2.73 ERA across 247.7 innings of work, striking out 27.0 percent of hitters while walking just 6.4 percent for a K-to-walk ratio better than 4-to-one. The peripheral numbers have been even better this season than in his 2014 breakout, that is aside from the fact that he has already given up more homers in fewer innings this season than he did all of last year.

Johnny Cueto CIN (at NYM) – The Reds have been cautious with Cueto to ensure that he only shows opponents and advanced scouts the good stuff as he auditions for the midsummer trade deadline, and the club pushed his start back from Tuesday all the way to today in order to give him a longer break for recovery. The Reds are walking a tightrope with Cueto, who has coughed up seven runs in his last 12.3 innings, hoping that his five-year run of sub-3.00 ERA’s will distract potential buyers away from the fact that most of 2015 has been a bumpy ride and his performances have been trending in the wrong direction.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. ATL) – Any pitcher that faces the Braves will receive a boost in the rankings during this stretch in which Freddie Freeman is disabled, as what was an already-weak lineup becomes a boatload of journeymen once he is removed from the equation. Liriano, meanwhile, is on his best run since he was a Twin, with a higher rate of strikeouts and lower rate of K’s than he has posted in five years. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Nats (five earnies over 5.7 innings) and is always a blow-up candidate (it was the third time he had given up five or more runs this season), but the lefty is one of the few pitchers who carries double-digit K potential every time out.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. CIN) – Thor has certainly been hit or miss with his hammer this season, but it’s tough to ignore any pitcher with the stuff to knock off the Blue Jays the way that Syndergaard owned them two starts ago – with 11 strikeouts and just four baserunners allowed through six full innings of work. The risk/reward is high with Syndergaard, which makes him a great GPP play tonight at home against the Reds.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. ARI) – Ross flummoxed the Diamondbacks in his last start, tossing a nine-inning complete game with nine strikeouts and just one walk, becoming the first start of the season in which Ross gave up fewer than two runs. Despite the nearly walk-free outing, Ross still leads the majors with 43 walks allowed this season, the natural result of his general approach to avoid hitter sweet spots by burying sliders underneath the strike zone.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Kluber	0.315	2.86	0.246	2.76	0.256	0.737	0.322	2.44	0.237	102.88	28.2%
Chen	0.288	2.73	0.324	3.53	0.257	0.717	0.289	3.90	0.255	96.16	18.8%
Scherzer	0.288	3.08	0.249	2.24	0.237	0.635	0.295	2.57	0.218	108.23	28.9%
Harang	0.326	3.07	0.301	3.89	0.260	0.736	0.298	3.70	0.255	101.79	18.1%
Perez	0.348	4.58	0.280	1.40	0.254	0.688	0.291	4.32	0.246	73.80	18.8%
Liriano	0.314	4.66	0.268	3.02	0.234	0.619	0.269	3.35	0.204	94.42	26.9%
Martinez	0.336	3.87	0.343	3.91	0.261	0.768	0.287	4.70	0.265	88.12	13.0%
Buehrle	0.332	3.81	0.323	3.45	0.235	0.683	0.306	3.86	0.278	95.22	13.2%
Quintana	0.287	4.50	0.310	3.15	0.265	0.757	0.320	3.08	0.259	104.48	20.9%
Sanchez	0.266	3.08	0.311	5.10	0.244	0.664	0.276	3.34	0.23	98.19	20.7%
Anderson	0.303	4.54	0.308	2.52	0.275	0.788	0.315	3.43	0.272	86.59	15.7%
Nicolino	0.262	0.00	0.196		0.242	0.679
Cueto	0.248	1.97	0.274	2.89	0.239	0.661	0.241	3.30	0.196	105.96	24.9%
Syndergaard	0.294	3.43	0.338	4.56	0.243	0.708	0.349	2.93	0.271	97.00	24.9%
Porcello	0.327	3.75	0.311	4.49	0.245	0.687	0.301	3.90	0.268	96.13	16.2%
Colome	0.319	3.50	0.320	4.50	0.266	0.740	0.287	4.53	0.261	80.06	15.5%
May	0.340	4.21	0.358	6.91	0.243	0.669	0.350	3.74	0.288	87.26	20.8%
Lohse	0.321	4.31	0.314	4.42	0.243	0.674	0.279	4.26	0.253	96.17	17.3%
Eovaldi	0.357	4.66	0.301	4.40	0.239	0.738	0.333	3.52	0.288	95.49	16.4%
Velasquez	0.387	3.68	0.324	4.76	0.262	0.761	0.367	3.80	0.25	94.67	29.3%
Arrieta	0.262	2.37	0.251	2.99	0.277	0.758	0.283	2.49	0.211	99.03	27.0%
Lackey	0.318	3.34	0.307	4.03	0.240	0.705	0.300	3.67	0.258	96.91	19.0%
Volquez	0.301	3.15	0.292	3.11	0.269	0.743	0.263	4.00	0.228	93.57	17.4%
Hahn	0.299	4.42	0.252	2.06	0.275	0.741	0.268	3.39	0.221	89.96	18.6%
Walker	0.324	3.72	0.311	4.95	0.243	0.689	0.306	4.03	0.252	86.50	22.2%
Shoemaker	0.318	4.28	0.292	3.29	0.224	0.650	0.284	3.77	0.243	79.73	22.4%
Ray	0.340	4.50	0.360	5.00	0.250	0.688	0.317	4.31	0.281	75.50	16.4%
Ross	0.308	3.20	0.283	2.93	0.260	0.718	0.311	3.15	0.236	100.70	24.4%
Bettis	0.323	5.45	0.378	5.19	0.268	0.736	0.329	3.92	0.285	44.52	16.7%
Hudson	0.333	3.63	0.305	4.07	0.274	0.774	0.3	3.90	0.271	89.80	14.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

John Lackey STL (at CHC) – Lackey gets the automatic strikeout boost by facing the Cubs today, and though his one start in Denver is marring his stat line, Lackey has been a relatively safe investment as a consistent pitcher when playing at sea level – since April, the Colorado game is the only one in which Lackey has given up more than four runs.

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. CHW) – Sanchez has been rocked for 6 or more runs 4 different times this season, but in the last two weeks he has shown glimpses of the pitcher that led the AL in ERA two years ago. In his last three turns, Sanchez has pitched 23.7 innings with just 3 total runs allowed, a 1.14 ERA packaged with 19 strikeouts against four walks. The excellent run has come against the Reds, Cubs, and Yankees, a formidable trio that could make today’s duel with the light-hitting Pale Hose seem like a vacation.

Taijuan Walker SEA (at LAA) – His ERA stood at a whopping 7.33 just one month ago, and though Walker has since turned his season around, it could be another two months before his ERA is anything but unsightly (it currently stands at 4.94). In his last five starts, Taijuan has begun to deliver on the promise that encouraged his pre-season investors, with a ridiculous K-to-walk ratio of 38-to-3 and a 2.04 ERA over 35.3 innings. Walker has yet to face the division-rival Angels in his career, so the Halos have little basis of comparison, so tonight’s battle will be his only chance to make a first impression.

Jose Quintana CHW (at DET) – Quintana would typically rank higher than this, but the Tigers rip lefties and he is vulnerable to right-handed bats, a platoon combination that fuels the fires of pessimism and helps to explain the 10-run disaster that Detroit pegged to Quintana’s game log earlier this season.

Robbie Ray ARI (at SD) – Ray has been surprisingly effective in his first five turns with a 1.78 ERA through 30.3 innings this season, but his high-contact results are out of whack from a minor-league line that was saturated with walks and strikeouts. The Padres have been in an offensive funk lately but are loaded to break out of their doldrums against left-handed pitching, setting the stage for an evening of regression from Ray courtesy of the right-handed bats from San Diego.

Brett Anderson LAD (at MIA) – As we head into the low-upside pitchers whose modest K rates effectively cap their earning potential, Anderson stands out as a pitcher whose injuries seemed to be the only thing standing between him and stardom. That said, he’s shown very few flashes of brilliance, and even a struggling Marlins club will fail to entice an investment from this guy.

Edinson Volquez KC (at OAK) – Oakland pulls rabbits out of their caps every year, and they feel just as likely to put up 10 runs as they are no runs this evening. Volquez masqueraded as a bit of a control artist in the early going, but the right-hander has since returned to being the volatile pitcher that we came to know and expect over his first 10 years in the league.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. CLE)
Williams Perez ATL (at PIT)
Jesse Hahn Oak (vs. KC)
Aaron Harang PHI (vs. WAS)
Nathan Eovaldi NYY (at HOU)
Alex Colome TB (vs. BOS)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. SEA)
Rick Porcello BOS (at TB)
Vincent Velasquez HOU (vs. NYY)
Chad Bettis COL (at SF)
Tim Hudson SF (vs. COL)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Mark Buehrle TOR (vs. TEX)
Kyle Lohse MIL (vs. MIN)
Trevor May MIN (at MIL)
Nick Martinez TEX (at TOR)
Justin Nicolino MIA (vs. LAD)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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