Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, May 27th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-28 02:42:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Morgan	PHI	CHC	110	4.75	4.98	1.28		13.8%	5.6%	1.31	0.66
Lester	CHC	PHI	260.1	3.18	3.28	1.11	65.0%	24.8%	5.9%	0.76	1.57
Garcia	STL	WAS	182.1	2.76	3.40	1.09	28.6%	20.3%	6.9%	0.39	2.82
Scherzer	WAS	STL	295	3.02	2.68	0.96	60.0%	30.9%	4.5%	1.25	0.80
Kelly	BOS	TOR	149.2	4.87	4.28	1.48	40.0%	19.4%	9.4%	1.02	1.63
Sanchez	TOR	BOS	151.1	3.21	4.10	1.26		18.1%	10.4%	0.77	2.83
Wright	BAL	CLE	86.1	5.53	4.91	1.47		14.7%	8.4%	1.36	1.07
Bauer	CLE	BAL	215.2	4.51	4.18	1.32	38.5%	22.6%	10.4%	1.17	1.04
Urias	LAD	NYM
Degrom	NYM	LAD	232	2.64	3.21	1.03	50.0%	25.5%	5.3%	0.74	1.30
Tanaka	NYY	TBR	212.1	3.43	3.37	1.01	66.7%	22.4%	4.6%	1.31	1.55
Archer	TBR	NYY	264.1	3.61	3.21	1.23	55.0%	28.7%	8.3%	0.99	1.38
Conley	MIA	ATL	114.2	3.92	4.15	1.34		21.4%	9.0%	0.78	1.04
Perez	ATL	MIA	149.1	4.58	4.84	1.46		13.7%	9.6%	0.90	1.87
Niese	PIT	TEX	229.2	4.27	4.28	1.41	41.2%	15.2%	7.3%	1.21	2.12
Hamels	TEX	PIT	269.2	3.47	3.44	1.20	58.8%	24.7%	7.4%	1.07	1.61
Lamb	CIN	MIL	69.2	5.68	4.08	1.58		22.1%	9.0%	1.42	1.01
Davies	MIL	CIN	70	4.76	4.59	1.39		16.4%	10.1%	0.90	2.02
Gonzalez	CWS	KCR	166.1	4.87	4.52	1.42	40.0%	17.7%	8.4%	1.46	1.12
Duffy	KCR	CWS	162	3.78	4.36	1.35	57.1%	19.0%	8.7%	0.89	1.04
Cain	SFG	COL	112.2	5.59	4.64	1.48	40.0%	15.8%	6.6%	1.60	0.86
Chatwood	COL	SFG	56.2	3.02	4.10	1.22	25.0%	15.5%	6.9%	0.95	2.24
Friedrich	SDP	ARI	67.2	4.92	4.54	1.76		16.1%	10.8%	0.67	1.59
Ray	ARI	SDP	175	3.70	4.06	1.41	33.3%	22.4%	9.6%	0.77	1.31
Fulmer	DET	OAK	26.1	5.13	3.30	1.63		28.0%	8.5%	1.71	1.50
Manaea	OAK	DET	26	7.62	4.68	1.50		14.7%	6.9%	1.38	1.29
Fiers	HOU	LAA	232	3.84	3.85	1.25		22.2%	7.3%	1.28	1.04
Shoemaker	LAA	HOU	172.1	4.96	4.04	1.32	44.4%	20.2%	6.5%	1.62	0.92
Dean	MIN	SEA	14	3.86	4.14	1.57		19.7%	8.2%	1.29	0.89
Hernandez	SEA	MIN	258.2	3.24	3.58	1.18	81.0%	22.4%	7.8%	0.97	2.06

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. STL) – In his last two starts, Scherzer has shown that the Ks are likely here to stay, with 18 Ks over his last 14.1 innings since the 20-K gem against the Tigers. Then again, the homers are likely here to stay as well, and facing a Cardinals offense that notoriously wrecks right-handers is a recipe for crooked numbers. He earns the All-in designation today based on a combination of strikeout-related upside and lack of competition for the top spot, but be warned that Scherzer has already struggled with run prevention this season and that the Cardinals have a knack for big innings that get out of hand in a hurry, while Scherzer’s terrible case of gopheritis leaves him at considerable risk of blowup. I don’t usually like investing all of my chips on such a risky bet, but the potential payoff is too great to ignore. Shuffle up and deal.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. MIN) – It feels like King Felix keeps getting away with something, because his performance continues to shine despite peripherals that are all headed in the wrong direction. The velocity has slowed to the point of potentially becoming a problem, the walk rate of 10.5-percent is easily a career-high and more than double his rate from two years ago, and his K rate (19.7 percent) has fallen below 23 percent for the first time since 2009. The ERA remains low at 2.21 for the season, as aside from his start against the A’s on May 4 Felix has kept the run-scoring in check, helped by a career-low 6.9 H/9. One gets the feeling that things are about to go south in a hurry for Hernandez, but he has the track record to earn some benefit of the doubt, that is at least until the other shoe drops on his performance.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. PIT) – The largest blemish on Hamels’ track record is the whopping 10 homers that he has allowed in nine starts this season (1.6 HR/9), and the fact that he still sports a low 2.83 ERA despite the large amount of baseballs leaving the yard is a testament to his fortunate timing this season, as nine of the ten homers have come with nobody on base and the other one was just a two-run shot. His hit rate is within career norms but the walk rate has ballooned as well, going from last season’s 6.7-percent rate to the 8.7-percent walk frequency of 2016. The extra walks and homers will naturally conspire to wreck his ERA of Hamels doesn’t reverse course quickly. He is piling on some extra strikeouts, so he has that going for him, which is nice.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at TB) – The overall stat-line is right in line with previous seasons, and though any pitcher who is throwing on a busted UCL is likely pitching on borrowed time, Tanaka has the proven track record to suggest that he can be effective when on the mound, regardless of potential injury. The Rays offense takes a hit against right-handed pitchers, losing a chunk of wOBA and OPS, and over the last seven games they have upped the strikeout rate to 24.8 percent. The Tampa Bay offense has also been rolling over the last seven games, with the third-best wOBA (.350) and fourth-best OPS (.799) in the league over that stretch. Tanaka coasted through April with exactly two earned runs allowed in each of five consecutive starts, and though he went though a hiccup in May, the right-hander got back on track in his last start by holding the A’s to one run over 7.0 innings.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Morgan	0.296	4.21	0.341	4.91	0.239	0.706	0.281	4.70	0.266	0.01	13.8%
Lester	0.292	3.38	0.285	3.12	0.252	0.681	0.296	3.04	0.234	0.01	24.8%
Garcia	0.260	3.08	0.257	2.68	0.264	0.767	0.272	2.96	0.221	0.01	20.3%
Scherzer	0.316	3.60	0.224	2.46	0.265	0.758	0.269	3.09	0.209	0.01	30.9%
Kelly	0.309	3.70	0.365	6.05	0.258	0.773	0.320	4.28	0.27	0.01	19.4%
Sanchez	0.351	3.77	0.228	2.64	0.271	0.763	0.262	4.11	0.226	0.00	18.1%
Wright	0.410	5.59	0.315	5.47	0.251	0.723	0.301	5.20	0.279	0.00	14.7%
Bauer	0.317	4.23	0.312	4.77	0.257	0.760	0.279	4.33	0.232	0.01	22.6%
Urias					0.240	0.714
Degrom	0.292	3.19	0.224	2.06	0.244	0.722	0.276	2.82	0.217	0.01	25.5%
Tanaka	0.288	3.68	0.279	3.20	0.244	0.706	0.247	3.82	0.218	0.01	22.4%
Archer	0.276	3.49	0.306	3.74	0.247	0.735	0.307	3.23	0.23	0.01	28.7%
Conley	0.387	7.64	0.297	3.25	0.227	0.624	0.309	3.72	0.251	0.01	21.4%
Perez	0.359	5.09	0.308	4.05	0.259	0.697	0.299	4.68	0.271	0.00	13.7%
Niese	0.345	3.31	0.342	4.53	0.260	0.738	0.298	4.67	0.273	0.00	15.2%
Hamels	0.284	1.99	0.304	3.88	0.255	0.708	0.292	3.69	0.235	0.01	24.7%
Lamb	0.441	8.22	0.345	4.97	0.231	0.674	0.351	4.49	0.291	0.00	22.1%
Davies	0.340	3.68	0.324	5.53	0.242	0.693	0.286	4.38	0.252	0.01	16.4%
Gonzalez	0.353	4.80	0.337	4.94	0.267	0.733	0.300	4.98	0.27	0.01	17.7%
Duffy	0.249	1.95	0.339	4.32	0.245	0.665	0.302	4.09	0.256	0.00	19.0%
Cain	0.399	6.61	0.348	4.81	0.270	0.769	0.316	5.06	0.291	0.00	15.8%
Chatwood	0.249	2.25	0.353	3.77	0.262	0.736	0.272	4.10	0.247	0.02	15.5%
Friedrich	0.295	3.19	0.399	6.38	0.263	0.758	0.356	4.13	0.302	0.00	16.1%
Ray	0.303	3.12	0.333	3.93	0.236	0.674	0.320	3.71	0.254	0.01	22.4%
Fulmer	0.296	2.25	0.426	7.53	0.249	0.700	0.400	4.19	0.306	0.00	28.0%
Manaea			0.402	9.16	0.271	0.777	0.314	4.82	0.29	0.00	14.7%
Fiers	0.291	3.41	0.335	4.25	0.254	0.715	0.289	4.11	0.245	0.01	22.2%
Shoemaker	0.317	5.48	0.350	4.35	0.246	0.743	0.293	4.63	0.261	0.00	20.2%
Dean			0.377	2.92	0.260	0.731	0.357	4.30	0.304	0.07	19.7%
Hernandez	0.303	3.78	0.285	2.66	0.241	0.694	0.277	3.79	0.23	0.01	22.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. LAD) – deGrom has been solid this season, but he hasn’t demonstrated the dominance that we saw over the past two seasons. The ERA of 3.07 shows that he is keeping the scoreboard relatively clean, but the K rate has cratered by nearly 10 percentage points from last season while his frequency of walks is up a chunk, and deGrom has posted underwhelming stat-lines throughout the month of May, topping out at 14.95 points on DraftKings across four starts this month. He has given up multiple runs in each turn and has only struck out more than four batters in one of those games, and the only bright side here seems to be that the best of those games – with two rns allowed over 7.0 innings – came against these Dodgers in Chavez Ravine.

Chris Archer TB (vs. NYY) – Just when it looks like Archer is about to climb out of the dumpster fire that has been his 2016 season, the right-hander is dragged back into the burning refuse. His last turn was the worst so far in terms of run prevention, giving up six runs over 3.0 innings against the Tigers, with nine hits allowed to the 19 batters that he faced. Confusing things is that Archer has had a brutal schedule to start the season, with seven of his 10 starts coming against the high-powered offenses of the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox or Tigers. His last four turns have all come on the road, as well, so tonight’s home start against the relatively-soft offense of the Yankees will be a welcome respite for Archer. His K rate is actually up from last season on a per-inning basis, rocking an AL-leading 11.2 K/9 this season, but his percentage has actually dropped 1.7 points from last season due to the multitude of hitters he has been facing.

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. SD) – Ray receives the Friar bump, as any pitcher who faces the Padres seems to put up season-best numbers, This factor is especially pertinent in games played in San Diego, and Chase Field is somewhat the opposite in that it inflates run-scoring rather than suppress it, but the Padres hitters have been struggling no matter the location or venue (Coors Field excepted, of course). The Pads’ .546 OPS over the last seven days is the third-lowest in baseball, as is the .241 wOBA that they have registered over that span, and the K rate shoots up a fraction of a tick when facing a southpaw. Ray as been striking out more than a batter per inning this season and he has kept the earned runs in check for the past month, but inefficient pitch counts have conspired to limit his overall scoring in DFS.

Julio Urias LAD (at NYM) – Urias makes his anticipated MLB debut tonight, taking on the Mets in New York. The teenage phenom could rekindle Fernandomania in Los Angeles, as the 19-year-old has been dropping jaws since he was signed and currently leads the PCL with a 1.10 ERA and 0.78 WHIP lead the Pacific Coast League despite his being the youngest pitcher in the circuit. He has struck out 5.5 batters for every walk at Triple-A, and his advanced pedigree includes a changeup whose effectiveness is virtually unheard of for a player his age, excellent command of his entire arsenal and even a devastating pickoff move. The Dodgers have kept him at 82 pitches or fewer in each of his minor-league starts, so expect a short leash and a quick hook in the rookie’s debut, elements which might limit his DFS value today but which do little to harm his long-term upside.

Jaime Garcia STL (at WAS) – I need to create an additional group for today’s slate, something that involves a modest raise such as a double-bet of the blind due to upside combined with the volatility. I could fit every pitcher from deGrom down to Fulmer in that group, as there is a large subset of pitchers who have various levels of intrigue and non-threatening opponents but who lack the credentials for a substantial raise. Garcia is one of those pitchers, and even if we ignore the 13-K game that was a clear outlier from the rest of his career, the southpawshown flashes of brilliance interspersed with bouts of ineffectiveness. He has topped 28 points on DraftKings three times, yet has fallen below six points in three other turns, and Garcia is coming off his worst start of the season: five runs and 11 baserunners with zero strikeouts over 2.1 innings against the Diamondbacks.

Adam Conley MIA (at ATL) – Going with the starter who opposes the Braves each day has become a popular strategy in DFS this season, and though Atlanta has a high-contact offense that limits the strikeouts against right-handers, the offense is completely anemic when a southpaw takes the mound as their only menacing hitter, Freddie Freeman, is compromised by lefty-on-lefty matchups. Conley gets the benefit of carrying his south paw to Atlanta in today’s game, and though his performance wavers on its own merits, he receives a bump in the rankings today thanks to his light opponent. The Braves had Tyler Flowers hitting cleanup yesterday, which tells us all we need to know about the lack of quality and depth in the Atlanta lineup.

Michael Fulmer DET (at OAK)

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at BOS)

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. BAL)

Mike Fiers HOU (at LAA)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. DET)

Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. HOU)

Mike Wright BAL (at CLE)

Williams Perez ATL (vs. MIA)

Jon Niese PIT (at TEX)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. CIN)

Joe Kelly BOS (vs. TOR)