Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 31st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-02 13:51:08

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Editor’s Note: Mike Foltynewicz has been scratched from today’s start. Shelby Miller will start in his place for the Braves.

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Archer	TBR	BAL	369.2	3.12	3.25	1.16	55.0%	25.7%	7.6%	0.66	1.45
Chen	BAL	TBR	341.2	3.37	3.90	1.22	31.6%	18.5%	5.0%	1.24	1.04
Salazar	CLE	TOR	254.1	3.72	3.22	1.21	12.5%	26.6%	7.2%	1.17	0.99
Price	TOR	CLE	430.2	2.90	2.96	1.08	52.4%	25.8%	4.2%	0.86	1.07
Narveson	MIA	ATL	15.1	7.04	3.92	1.43		22.4%	9.0%	2.93	0.57
Foltynewicz	ATL	MIA	105.1	5.64	4.26	1.62		18.8%	7.5%	1.71	0.72
Nova	NYY	BOS	82.2	5.44	4.63	1.46	25.0%	14.1%	8.0%	1.31	1.53
Rodriguez	BOS	NYY	92.1	4.39	4.16	1.23		17.7%	6.9%	1.17	1.43
Eickhoff	PHI	NYM	12	2.25	3.64	1.08		22.5%	4.1%	0.00	0.65
Colon	NYM	PHI	354.1	4.34	3.83	1.25	42.1%	17.7%	3.3%	1.12	1.02
Lorenzen	CIN	CHC	90.2	5.46	5.28	1.65		15.8%	12.9%	1.49	1.19
Hendricks	CHC	CIN	222.2	3.52	3.69	1.18		18.7%	5.4%	0.73	1.69
Nuno	SEA	HOU	218	4.13	3.81	1.24	18.8%	20.0%	6.5%	1.40	0.90
Keuchel	HOU	SEA	385.2	2.61	2.94	1.09	50.0%	20.3%	5.8%	0.47	3.49
Gonzalez	WAS	STL	294.1	3.82	3.63	1.33	46.7%	22.9%	8.6%	0.52	1.60
Lackey	STL	WAS	370.2	3.40	3.83	1.24	57.9%	18.9%	5.6%	0.97	1.28
Ray	ARI	COL	119.2	4.89	4.28	1.45	33.3%	18.8%	8.3%	0.83	1.00
Bettis	COL	ARI	105.1	5.72	4.24	1.57		17.2%	8.8%	1.11	1.66
Santiago	LAA	OAK	277	3.41	4.26	1.27	16.7%	20.9%	8.8%	1.20	0.60
Doubront	OAK	LAA	121	4.91	4.56	1.51	20.0%	14.9%	8.3%	1.04	1.21
Peavy	SFG	LAD	271	3.85	4.19	1.28	42.1%	18.2%	7.3%	1.00	0.93
Anderson	LAD	SFG	190.2	3.26	3.45	1.31	20.0%	16.2%	6.6%	0.71	3.30
Lewis	TEX	SDP	334.2	4.79	4.26	1.37	11.8%	17.3%	5.7%	1.29	0.76
Ross	SDP	TEX	353.2	3.08	3.28	1.29	66.7%	24.6%	9.7%	0.46	2.97

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

David Price TOR (vs. CLE) – Price is enjoying his new digs. Since becoming a Blue Jay, the former Cy Young winner has a 1.98 ERA through his first five turns, and he has thrown 7.0 or more innings in four of the five. Each of his Toronto outings has qualified as a quality start, and he has 41 strikeouts against seven walks in 36.3 combined innings. He faces a Cleveland offense that has been rolling of late, including a .381 wOBA and 883 OPS over the last seven days, but some of the team’s top bats are dinged when facing a southpaw (including Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley) and as a club the Indians have had a tough time on the road (a .300 wOBA and 688 OPS). It’s a close race, but Price edges out Archer for the top spot due to his recent run of consistent dominance as well as his easier opponent.

Chris Archer TB (at BAL) – Archer has been a strikeout machine this season (217 K’s in 175.0 innings) and the dials have been turned up for the past few weeks, with the right-hander recording double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four starts (and in four of his last six turns). The outlier was a disaster start in which Archer surrendered 14 baserunners and eight runs (seven earned) in Texas against the Rangers, a game in which he lasted 5.3 innings and featured just four punchouts. He gave up another four runs in his last outing, with 10 baserunners over 6.0 frames against the Twins, but his 12 strikeouts overshadowed the run prevention from a fantasy perspective, while owners were somewhat disappointed after he had coasted through the first four innings. When he’s on, Archer can be one of the most dominant hurlers in the game today, but his occasional bouts of inconsistency add to the risk that DFS managers will get a light return on their significant investment in his services.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. SEA) – August has been a good month for Keuchel, continuing a breakout theme for the left-hander whose 2.28 ERA on the season ranks ahead of Price for second-best in the American League (behind only Sonny Gray 2.13 mark). He is five-for-five in registering quality starts this month, and each of his last four turns has lasted 7.0 innings or more. From a statistical standpoint, the most impressive improvement in his game has been with the strikeouts, as his K rate has jumped from the 18-percent of the previous two seasons to 22.8-percent in 2015, converting a relative liability into an asset for the southpaw. With 33 strikeouts against seven walks in 34.7 August innings, Keuchel shows no signs of slowing down.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

John Lackey STL (vs. WAS) – It’s an interesting slate of pitchers today, in which there are a few All-in candidates but then a gulf between those top arms and the rest of the group. Lackey fits right in the middle, with his incredible consistency this season yet a modest K rate, the type of pitcher that won’t post a massive score but is a relatively safe call with a high floor of potential fantasy points. He has thrown 13 quality starts in his last 14 ballgames, has pitched 6.0 or more frames in all 14 games, and has walked two or fewer batters in 13 of those contests (the other was a three-spot of free passes). He’s a good bet to stay in the game and keep runs off the scoreboard tonight against the inconsistent offense of the Nationals.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Archer	0.273	2.91	0.282	3.36	0.253	0.738	0.295	2.99	0.226	100.17	25.7%
Chen	0.288	2.38	0.331	3.69	0.263	0.765	0.291	4.06	0.259	96.20	18.5%
Salazar	0.304	3.67	0.308	3.76	0.257	0.762	0.302	3.60	0.238	98.74	26.6%
Price	0.293	2.68	0.278	2.98	0.261	0.713	0.299	2.85	0.235	108.27	25.8%
Narveson	0.228	3.38	0.445	9.00	0.241	0.670	0.268	6.58	0.262	33.57	22.4%
Foltynewicz	0.411	6.34	0.353	5.01	0.248	0.662	0.346	5.00	0.305	53.15	18.8%
Nova	0.351	4.78	0.363	6.18	0.264	0.731	0.302	5.05	0.28	87.87	14.1%
Rodriguez	0.388	6.64	0.286	3.75	0.258	0.770	0.270	4.29	0.242	94.75	17.7%
Eickhoff	0.392	2.70	0.189	2.08	0.244	0.698	0.306	1.79	0.234	86.00	22.5%
Colon	0.315	4.11	0.326	4.59	0.251	0.684	0.310	3.75	0.274	92.61	17.7%
Lorenzen	0.440	6.55	0.323	4.79	0.242	0.716	0.300	5.76	0.275	85.37	15.8%
Hendricks	0.312	3.12	0.283	3.85	0.247	0.699	0.292	3.43	0.249	89.00	18.7%
Nuno	0.261	2.73	0.342	4.61	0.241	0.724	0.281	4.40	0.25	61.14	20.0%
Keuchel	0.219	2.38	0.283	2.68	0.258	0.711	0.282	2.94	0.231	104.31	20.3%
Gonzalez	0.288	3.75	0.314	3.85	0.237	0.679	0.322	3.10	0.251	96.02	22.9%
Lackey	0.316	3.11	0.302	3.68	0.250	0.722	0.297	3.70	0.257	97.25	18.9%
Ray	0.326	3.97	0.359	5.25	0.252	0.669	0.329	3.86	0.276	84.88	18.8%
Bettis	0.334	5.14	0.389	6.39	0.265	0.733	0.325	4.45	0.284	51.83	17.2%
Santiago	0.267	1.93	0.320	3.96	0.251	0.688	0.271	4.33	0.234	87.02	20.9%
Doubront	0.351	5.45	0.346	4.69	0.232	0.665	0.311	4.48	0.279	68.37	14.9%
Peavy	0.329	4.45	0.317	3.30	0.250	0.747	0.290	4.08	0.253	98.64	18.2%
Anderson	0.301	3.76	0.311	3.05	0.269	0.714	0.308	3.65	0.268	87.61	16.2%
Lewis	0.349	4.73	0.330	4.86	0.245	0.686	0.311	4.38	0.278	96.82	17.3%
Ross	0.308	3.25	0.277	2.92	0.260	0.736	0.311	3.08	0.235	99.31	24.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Danny Salazar CLE (at TOR) – Salazar was on an excellent run up until his last start (against the Yankees), with seven starts of a 1.45 ERA and a three-to-one ratio of strikeouts-to-walks, but New York tagged with five runs (four earned) before he could finish the fifth inning. That game was nine days ago, so Salazar has some extra rest heading into today’s matchup with the massive offense of the Toronto Blue Jays, and it’s this opponent that has knocked Salazar down from the cusp of All-in status to today’s standing atop the Call list. Salazar’s biggest weakness this season has been homers, including five round-trippers in his last four games, and the Blue Jays are primed to exploit that weakness tonight at the Rogers Centre.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (at STL) – Gonzalez had an excellent run from mid-June to the middle of August, with an eight-game stretch in which he allowed two runs or fewer in each contest, but that streak is officially broken after his recent trio of brutal starts. The southpaw has surrendered five or more runs in each of his last three outings, a stretch in which he has given up 20 hits and six walks in 12.3 innings pitched. The silver lining is that he is facing a St. Louis offense that struggles against southpaws with a team OPS of 679 this year.

Tyson Ross SD (vs. TEX) – It took 37 fewer innings for Ross to match his walk count of last season, as his 72 free passes in 2015 lead the majors and his 11 wild pitches are tied for the lead in the National League (with Jimmy Nelson). The Rangers have been smoking baseballs over the past week and a half, scoring four or more runs in each of their last eight ballgames and are 13-4 in their last 17 contests, surging past the Angels for second place in the AL West and a lead for the second wild card spot in the junior circuit. Ross has been posting solid strikeout totals, but the inefficient pitch counts have led to Ross hitting showers before completing the seventh inning in each of his last dozen starts.

Hector Santiago LAA (at OAK) – Santiago barely survived consecutive matchups with southpaw-smashing powerhouses Toronto and Detroit, giving nine runs and seven walks in 8.0 innings across the two games. He [itched very well into midsummer, holding a 2.30 ERA after his 10-K performance on July 20, but in the weeks since the southpaw has a 5.70 ERA in seven starts, having surrendered an incredible nine home runs in 36.3 innings with a K-to-walk ratio of less than two-to-one, bring his ERA on the season up to 3.13. The walks have been a problem recently, having given away three or more free passes in each of his last three ballgames, the first of which was against a Royals team that has taken the fewest walks in the majors this season.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. TB) – Chen’s M.O. Is to stay around the plate, resulting in few walks but a relatively high frequency of hard-hit baseballs and homers allowed. He has kept the ball in the yard this month, giving up just two homers in five starts covering 31.0 innings, following a seven-start run in which he gave up 11 bombs in 44.0 innings. The Rays are much better against southpaws than they are against right-handers; consider that they have a team wOBA of .330 and an OPS of 765 against lefties this season, compared to marks of .307 and 705 when looking at their overall performance against everyone.

Brett Anderson LAD (vs. SF) – Every pitch that Anderson throws is a bonus at this point in the season, given that he has tossed more innings in 2015 than in any season since his rookie year (2009), and his performance has been solid if unspectacular through most of the season. He doesn’t impress on the strikeout scale and he gives up more hits than you’d ideally like to see, but Anderson keeps the walks down and has spent this month mastering the baseline quality start; he has given up exactly three runs while pitching between 6.0 and 6.7 innings in each of his last three turns.

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. PHI)

Jake Peavy SF (at LAD)

Vidal Nuno SEA (at HOU)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. CIN)

Ivan Nova NYY (at BOS)

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (vs. NYY)

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at NYM)

Michael Lorenzen CIN (at CHC)

Colby Lewis TEX (at SD)

Felix Doubront OAK (vs. LAA)