Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, July 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-26 01:36:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
De La Rosa	COL	BAL	217.2	4.59	4.27	1.42	40.0%	20.6%	10.3%	1.20	1.77
Gallardo	BAL	COL	232.2	3.91	4.85	1.49	50.0%	15.1%	9.4%	0.81	1.53
Rea	SDP	TOR	119	4.76	4.58	1.39		18.4%	9.2%	0.83	1.47
Sanchez	TOR	SDP	210.2	3.08	4.02	1.23		18.9%	9.3%	0.81	2.75
Verlander	DET	BOS	257.2	3.63	3.83	1.10	35.0%	23.3%	6.4%	1.01	0.77
Pomeranz	BOS	DET	188	3.02	3.72	1.12	25.0%	25.7%	9.4%	0.77	1.23
Hellickson	PHI	MIA	257.2	4.37	4.07	1.27		20.0%	6.4%	1.40	1.18
Cosart	MIA	PHI	84.1	5.12	5.04	1.51	31.6%	14.9%	13.0%	1.07	2.48
Syndergaard	NYM	STL	255.2	2.96	2.83	1.06		28.7%	4.8%	0.88	1.59
Shipley	ARI	MIL
Anderson	MIL	ARI	238.2	4.71	4.49	1.34	40.0%	17.5%	7.2%	1.36	1.07
Mengden	OAK	TEX	39	5.54	4.38	1.49		22.2%	10.2%	0.92	1.37
Perez	TEX	OAK	192	4.22	4.82	1.42	37.5%	12.2%	8.7%	0.66	2.32
Arrieta	CHC	CWS	343.1	2.07	3.05	0.94	50.0%	26.8%	6.8%	0.45	2.30
Gonzalez	CWS	CHC	220.1	4.74	4.58	1.38	40.0%	17.6%	8.4%	1.27	1.17
Pineda	NYY	HOU	261	4.83	3.19	1.28	75.0%	24.9%	4.3%	1.34	1.51
Keuchel	HOU	NYY	352	3.27	3.18	1.14	50.0%	22.5%	6.2%	0.82	2.89
Santiago	LAA	KCR	286	3.84	4.52	1.26	16.7%	20.9%	9.4%	1.45	0.65
Kennedy	KCR	LAA	273.1	4.12	3.77	1.25	47.6%	24.4%	7.6%	1.75	0.87
Desclafani	CIN	SFG	227	3.77	4.05	1.33	20.0%	19.6%	6.7%	0.83	1.30
Peavy	SFG	CIN	204.1	4.27	4.52	1.27	42.1%	17.5%	6.3%	0.97	0.82

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jake Arrieta CHC (at CHW) – Arrieta shook off a trio of rough pre-break starts to shut down the Mets in his last start, allowing one run on five hits and a walk across 7.0 frames against the Mets. Perhaps it’s premature to vault him so quickly back to All-In status, but Arrieta was a slam dunk for the highest tier for the first three months of the season and has the Cy Young pedigree to anticipate a quick comeback after his train was derailed for a few starts. The low walk total in his first game after the break was particularly intriguing, given that the biggest difference between this season and last is that the right-hander’s walk rate has spiked. He takes the mound in today’s interleague matchup with the White Sox, a team whose offense qualifies in the bottom quartile of the league and sees no improvement based on pitcher handedness or whether playing at home or the road.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. STL) – The revelation that Thor is pitching with bone chips in his throwing elbow raised a caution flag, and his performance immediately surrounding the breaking news raised even more eyebrows. Two of his last three outings before the All-Star break involved less than 5.0 innings pitched and he failed to top five strikeouts in three of five prior to the break, but he got back on track in his first start back by keeping the Cubs to one unearned run over 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts. Syndergaard has actually been quite effective against the mighty Cubs, facing them in two of his last three turns and allowing just two total runs over 12.2 innings of work. His average velocity has been down from its early season peak, but even with a tick shaved off the top he is averaging almost 98 mph when weighing his four-seamers and sinkers, and even his lowest-velo game of 2016 was higher than his ‘15 average that led baseball’s starting pitchers in average velocity. I’m not quite ready to anoint him back to previously-established levels of greatness and his opponent adds another wrinkle to his ranking, but the ceiling is high enough to differentiate Thor from the rest of the pack.

Carlos Martinez STL (at NYM) – Martinez has been quietly dominant over the past two months. In his last nine starts, the Cardinals right-hander has carried a 1.61 ERA and 54:17 K:BB ratio over 61.1 innings, with a 1.06 WHIP and 5-1 record over that stretch. The strikeouts have been a bit light for much of the season and though CarMart struck out 11 Brewers two starts ago, the impression left is that the high K-count had more to do with the free-swinging batters on Milwaukee than the stuff of Martinez, as he followed it up with a five-strikeout performance in 7.0 frames against the Padres in his last outing. Strikeout-related expectations should be tempered, as that Brewers game stands out on a game log that is otherwise bereft of games with more than eight Ks, but Martinez’s ability to keep runs off the scoreboard is legit, he has proven that he can go deep into ballgames despite his lithe frame (7.0 or more innings in six of his last nine starts) and he is backed by an ample offense that helps CarMart’s odds of attaining a W.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. SD) – Enjoy it while you can, as Sanchez likely has just a few starts remaining before the Blue Jays shift him back to the bullpen to limit his workload. Sanchez has been Toronto’s best starter this season, with a 10-1 record and 2.87 ERA , though his strikeouts have been a bit light with a rate of 7.8 K/9 on the season, and the lack of strikeouts has become a more glaring issue recently as the right-hander has recorded just 19 strikeouts in his last 34.0 frames covering five starts. He has kept runs off the board with a 1.85 ERA over that stretch and has allowed just six total walks, his best string of walk-prevention this season, and one wonders if he has altered his approach in order to induce more contact and lighten his pitch count on a per-inning basis, as the Jays have also kept Sanchez under 100 pitches in each of his last three starts despite his relative effectiveness.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
De La Rosa	0.316	5.34	0.345	4.55	0.241	0.686	0.299	4.52	0.254	0.01	20.6%
Gallardo	0.349	5.00	0.313	2.90	0.271	0.780	0.309	4.23	0.273	0.00	15.1%
Rea	0.313	4.39	0.333	5.26	0.260	0.785	0.295	4.17	0.251	0.00	18.4%
Sanchez	0.339	3.61	0.233	2.55	0.239	0.683	0.266	3.99	0.228	0.00	18.9%
Verlander	0.273	2.91	0.298	4.37	0.273	0.772	0.271	3.61	0.225	0.01	23.3%
Pomeranz	0.231	1.85	0.280	3.54	0.272	0.786	0.255	3.37	0.199	0.00	25.7%
Hellickson	0.345	4.35	0.319	4.38	0.262	0.703	0.287	4.39	0.253	0.00	20.0%
Cosart	0.321	4.75	0.347	5.48	0.244	0.686	0.270	5.12	0.246	0.00	14.9%
Martinez	0.329	3.81	0.251	2.11	0.241	0.713	0.301	3.31	0.237	0.00	23.1%
Syndergaard	0.302	3.50	0.249	2.51	0.264	0.763	0.303	2.75	0.229	0.01	28.7%
Shipley					0.253	0.708
Anderson	0.310	4.21	0.361	5.17	0.265	0.741	0.293	4.67	0.265	0.00	17.5%
Mengden	0.354	6.75	0.293	4.57	0.258	0.739	0.321	4.10	0.258	0.00	22.2%
Perez	0.247	1.91	0.338	4.87	0.256	0.721	0.295	4.23	0.268	0.00	12.2%
Arrieta	0.233	1.70	0.237	2.39	0.250	0.701	0.250	2.58	0.188	0.01	26.8%
Gonzalez	0.343	4.21	0.326	5.21	0.247	0.739	0.296	4.69	0.264	0.00	17.6%
Pineda	0.328	4.54	0.335	5.07	0.250	0.750	0.336	3.61	0.272	0.00	24.9%
Keuchel	0.229	2.81	0.295	3.41	0.257	0.733	0.286	3.29	0.234	0.00	22.5%
Santiago	0.287	2.83	0.322	4.17	0.276	0.742	0.253	4.80	0.226	0.00	20.9%
Kennedy	0.342	4.41	0.328	3.84	0.256	0.719	0.284	4.72	0.244	0.01	24.4%
Desclafani	0.345	4.60	0.293	2.84	0.265	0.741	0.321	3.64	0.269	0.01	19.6%
Peavy	0.322	3.87	0.323	4.64	0.245	0.699	0.293	3.93	0.258	0.00	17.5%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (vs. DET) – The Raise-worthy options are few and far between on today’s slate, and there is a big cliff in value from that select quartet and the pitchers on the Call list. Pomeranz had a rough debut with his new AL club, coughing up eight hits and five runs across 3.0 frames against the Giants, a team that he had faced more than any other this season, silencing any protests that his rough debut in a Sox uniform was due to AL opponents. He had thrown 31 innings of 0.43-ERA baseball in the three starts leading up to the trade and the last outing was his shortest of the season, so there is plenty of reason to believe that the game versus the Giants was more of an outlier than a new expected baseline of performance. The former AL pitcher will not be thrown by any of the ballparks or opponents that the Junior Circuit has to offer, but regression is expected to some degree given the height of his first-half performance and the friendliness of his former home park, and the addition of a cutter has changed Pomeranz’s profile and approach since last season.

Justin Verlander DET (at BOS) – You know the Calls are tentative when the second pitcher on the list is a pitcher who is a borderline Raise candidate when playing against a neutral opponent but who happens to be pitching against the ridiculous offense of the Red Sox. The Boston lineup is dented greatly by the loss of Mookie Betts, so if he remains out of the lineup Monday then Verlander’s task becomes a bit easier. Verlander has had a disaster start once a month, in which seven or more runners cross the plate and inflate his ERA, and the combination of his clean July thus far and the formidable offense of the Red Sox raises the possibility that he will make it four-for-four after today’s outing. His last disaster came at the end of June, with eight runs given up to the Indians over 4.2 frames, but in his four starts since Verlander has busted a 1.63 ERA and 32:9 K:BB ratio over 27.2 innings. His opponents have been relatively light during that stretch, and in fact the Indians themselves have been responsible for Verlander’s last two horrific starts, but Verlander has gotten this far into the schedule without yet having to face the Red Sox.

Michael Pineda NYY (at HOU) – Pineda only ranks this high due to the upside and the lack of options on today’s slate, as the right-hander has the ability to spike a high K count against the strikeout-heavy offense of the Astros. Houston has a lot of bats that swing big, miss big and occasionally hit the ball a long way, in addition to a Mighty Mouse who possesses the ability to either set or clear the table. His last five starts have been a roller coaster, starting with a pair of six-inning gems that involved just one run and two hits allowed in each (the second of which included 12 strikeouts), immediately followed by a pair of five-run outings, only to see him blank the Orioles for six innings in his first start after the All-Star break. The range of outcomes is enormous, making Pineda a perfect choice for cheaper, larger tournaments with top-heavy prize pools and a minimal penalty for ugly scores in the event that things take an ugly turn for the right-hander in tonight’s ballgame.

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at SF) – Eventually, the hits will come back to haunt DeSclafani, but thus far he has been able to walk between the raindrops, posting a 2.50 ERA in eight starts despite surrendering 52 hits in 50.1 innings. He has earned quality starts in seven of those eight turns and has kept the bases relatively clear of free passes to aid his cause, with just two walks allowed over his last five games spanning 34.2 innings. He’ll get a ballpark in tonight’s game that will help to limit the homers, though his strikeout upside is limited and things could go south in a hurry if he doesn’t continue to step up with runners on base – he has allowed an .874 OPS with the bases clear this season but has held opposing batters to just a .538 OPS with runners on base. Expect those numbers to gravitate towards each other and for his ERA to rise accordingly.

Ian Kennedy KC (vs. LAA) – The optimistic view sees a pitcher who has cracked double-digit strikeouts in two of his last five starts and who is backed by an excellent defense that turns hard-hit baseballs into outs. The pessimistic view just sees a pitcher who allows a ton of hard-hit baseballs, including 26 homers allowed in 109.1 innings this season and 23 bombs over his last 13 starts, an astronomical total that makes stacking Angels a viable strategy.

Dallas Keuchel HOU (vs. NYY)

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at MIA)

Braden Shipley ARI (at MIL) – Shipley makes his MLB debut tonight against the Brewers, but expectations should be tempered despite his facing a free-swinging opponent who tends to give opposing pitchers high K counts this season. Shipley carried an uninspiring ERA of 3.69 through the PCL this season, though such a number is impressive in the hitter-dominant PCL, especially with Shipley pitching his home games in Reno. It’s also notable that he had just 77 strikeouts this season through 119.2 innings pitched, a rate of 5.8 K/9 that combines with his 6.8 K/9 rate in the Southern League last year to quiet any -related enthusiasm.

Jake Peavy SF (vs. CIN)

Hector Santiago LAA (at KC)

Martin Perez TEX (vs. OAK)

Daniel Mengden OAK (at TEX)

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. ARI)

Jarred Cosart MIA (vs. PHI)

Yovani Gallardo BAL (vs. COL)