Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, May 9th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-05-10 03:36:40

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Sanchez	DET	WAS	180.2	5.13	4.11	1.36	41.2%	21.2%	8.4%	1.69	1.00
Strasburg	WAS	DET	163.1	3.20	2.76	1.08	52.4%	29.6%	5.2%	0.83	1.32
Young	KCR	NYY	148.1	3.58	4.93	1.15	47.4%	17.8%	8.7%	1.33	0.47
Nova	NYY	KCR	108	5.08	4.39	1.38	25.0%	14.8%	7.2%	1.17	1.74
Peralta	MIL	MIA	138.2	5.32	4.80	1.62	47.4%	12.5%	8.0%	1.23	1.78
Fernandez	MIA	MIL	93.1	3.28	2.86	1.20	75.0%	31.0%	7.3%	0.48	1.29
Gray	OAK	BOS	236.1	2.86	3.84	1.12	60.0%	20.5%	7.8%	0.76	1.78
Buchholz	BOS	OAK	141	3.89	3.69	1.28	33.3%	21.3%	6.1%	0.64	1.43
Niese	PIT	CIN	205	4.26	4.28	1.41	41.2%	15.1%	7.2%	1.19	2.05
Straily	CIN	PIT	40.2	4.20	4.44	1.23	14.3%	20.9%	11.6%	1.11	1.07
Rodon	CWS	TEX	166.1	3.84	4.12	1.43		22.9%	11.3%	0.76	1.68
Lewis	TEX	CWS	235.2	4.47	4.49	1.26	11.8%	16.3%	5.2%	1.26	0.75
Vargas	SDP	CHC	10.1	0.87	4.47	1.45		20.5%	13.6%	0.87	2.67
Lester	CHC	SDP	239.1	3.12	3.18	1.09	65.0%	25.1%	5.7%	0.75	1.65
Wilson	BAL	MIN	53.2	3.35	4.80	1.29		9.9%	6.3%	0.50	1.67
Berrios	MIN	BAL
Kluber	CLE	HOU	256	3.59	2.98	1.05	57.1%	27.5%	4.9%	0.88	1.20
Fiers	HOU	CLE	209.1	3.87	3.82	1.26		22.9%	7.6%	1.33	0.93
De La Rosa	ARI	COL	212.1	4.62	4.04	1.33	57.1%	19.5%	7.8%	1.48	1.57
Chatwood	COL	ARI	29.2	2.73	4.04	1.28	25.0%	16.1%	5.7%	0.91	1.75
Matz	NYM	LAD	56.2	2.86	3.52	1.34		23.2%	7.1%	0.79	1.66
Kazmir	LAD	NYM	208	3.42	4.09	1.23	63.2%	20.2%	7.6%	1.08	1.16
Moore	TBR	SEA	95	4.83	4.12	1.37		19.9%	7.4%	1.23	1.06
Hernandez	SEA	TBR	234.1	3.23	3.53	1.17	81.0%	22.8%	7.9%	0.96	2.08
Sanchez	TOR	SFG	123.2	3.06	4.14	1.25		17.7%	10.6%	0.87	2.77
Peavy	SFG	TOR	133.2	4.44	4.38	1.27	42.1%	17.0%	5.7%	0.94	0.87

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. SD) – The Cubs have been an unstoppable force lately, thoroughly massacring opponents on both sides of the ball, and Lester has quietly been an immovable object as the no. 2 man in the rotation behind Jake Arrieta. Lester’s peripheral stats are right in line with last season, whiffing nearly a batter per inning and walking just two hitters per nine innings. The K count has fluctuated pretty wildly from game to game, with five or fewer punchouts in four of his six starts yet breaking double digits in the other two turns, but he has yet to give up more than a pair of walks and teams have scored more than one run against him just once in six games. Lester is coming off a season-low 5.2 innings against the Pirates, keeping him from a six-game string of quality starts, but his efficiency with pitch counts has kept Lester at 106 throws or fewer in each turn this season. It’s a tough call between Lester and Kluber, but the Cubs southpaw gets the nod thanks to a weak opponent who yields a string of blue squares on the Daily Matchup Chart within the SP Hub here at RotoGrinders.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at HOU) – Kluber is back on track after a rough start to the season, and though his K rate hasn’t yet reached the level of dominance of the past two seasons (through which he had 10.1 K/9 and more than five strikeouts for every walk), all of the other signs are pointed in the right directions. In his last three turns, Kluber has posted a 1.13 ERA and 23:2 ratio of K:BB in 24.0 innings, or an average of eight full frames per start. The K rate could pop over a batter-per-inning today, facing an Astros club whose batter K rate of 23.4-percent is the second-highest in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. DET) – Strasburg enters his second consecutive interleague matchup on an excellent run, having held opponents under three runs in five of his six starts this season, striking out seven or more batters in his last five games in a row and posting a K:BB ratio of 43:6 over that stretch. The Tigers offense has been shaky this year, with sluggers Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez dealing with down performances so far in 2016, and though Miggy has been turning things around the Tigers are missing some of the teeth that typically make them so formidable. The top three pitchers on today’s slate are very close to one another in terms of value, and Stras received consideration for the all-in category when compiling the rankings.

Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. MIL) – It’s weird to imagine the pitcher with baseball’s highest K rate (12.6 K/9) as having a limited ceiling, but as long as Fern is stuff at six frames or fewer in each start, then he lacks the opportunity to post a big score in DFS. He has yet to go beyond the sixth inning in any start this season and his inefficient use of pitches have resulted in outings like his last turn, in which the right-hander threw 99 pitches in 5.0 frames. The last three starts have been unimpressive from a statistical standpoint, with a 4.76 ERA and 27 baserunners allowed through 17.0 innings pitched, and though his 20 strikeouts over that stretch are very strong when viewed through a per-inning lens, his inability to go deep in ballgames means has capped the K count at no higher than eight punchouts in any of the three turns.

Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. TB) – We are getting deep enough into the season that it’s fair to say that something is off with King Felix. He has struck out four or fewer batters in four consecutive starts, which is something that occurred to Hernandez just just six times last season in 31 starts; he walked five or more batters just twice last season in those 31 turns, yet he has already walked that many hitters in a pair of turns this year, and his rate of 4.4 BB/9 is more than twice the frequency that he posted from 2012-15; and finally, after an offseason of defending his velocity-drop as a mirage (which it was for that 2012-15 stretch), there’s no denying that this year’s decline is very real – he averaged 92.5 mph or higher in every year of his career prior to this one, but in 2016 Felix has averaged just 90.4 mph on his fastball.

Steven Matz NYM (at LAD) – Since Matz’s horrific first outing of the year (7 ER in 1.2 IP), he has been one of the best pitchers in the game, with four starts of a 0.67 ERA, 29 strikeouts and just five walks allowed in 27.0 innings. His list of opponents during that stretch has certainly been favorable (at CLE, at ATL, vs. SF and vs. ATL) and the Dodgers are the most formidable offense that Matz has faced this season. It’s worth discounting him slightly due to the easy opponents on his resume, but given the warts of the two pitchers listed above him on this list – and their higher relative price tags – Matz could provide a good opportunity to take the smaller name with the lighter price tag in order to reap higher marginal value.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Sanchez	0.314	4.20	0.369	6.15	0.245	0.708	0.287	4.87	0.255	0.00	21.2%
Strasburg	0.243	2.43	0.312	4.04	0.268	0.737	0.310	2.61	0.23	0.01	29.6%
Young	0.334	4.00	0.253	3.20	0.246	0.733	0.224	4.65	0.211	0.00	17.8%
Nova	0.379	5.51	0.305	4.71	0.265	0.732	0.292	4.71	0.267	0.01	14.8%
Peralta	0.386	5.50	0.370	5.14	0.258	0.692	0.332	4.99	0.309	0.00	12.5%
Fernandez	0.351	4.12	0.217	2.67	0.256	0.710	0.345	2.26	0.238	0.02	31.0%
Gray	0.256	1.97	0.283	3.76	0.268	0.750	0.258	3.55	0.217	0.01	20.5%
Buchholz	0.305	4.01	0.309	3.76	0.248	0.701	0.326	3.17	0.264	0.01	21.3%
Niese	0.346	3.35	0.340	4.50	0.248	0.714	0.300	4.60	0.274	0.00	15.1%
Straily	0.279	4.35	0.330	4.05	0.266	0.740	0.231	4.62	0.201	0.02	20.9%
Rodon	0.230	3.14	0.349	4.13	0.255	0.734	0.312	3.84	0.246	0.01	22.9%
Lewis	0.334	4.54	0.312	4.39	0.251	0.701	0.291	4.39	0.265	0.00	16.3%
Vargas					0.248	0.738	0.296	4.62	0.243	0.10	20.5%
Lester	0.282	3.38	0.284	3.04	0.242	0.680	0.296	2.97	0.232	0.01	25.1%
Wilson	0.293	2.86	0.338	3.91	0.242	0.696	0.287	3.91	0.267	0.01	9.9%
Berrios					0.257	0.758
Kluber	0.320	3.97	0.237	3.20	0.247	0.743	0.296	2.93	0.228	0.01	27.5%
Fiers	0.296	3.52	0.331	4.21	0.251	0.721	0.287	4.17	0.243	0.01	22.9%
De La Rosa	0.396	6.75	0.267	2.82	0.268	0.774	0.284	4.71	0.254	0.01	19.5%
Chatwood	0.230	0.59	0.392	5.02	0.265	0.740	0.301	3.84	0.267	0.03	16.1%
Matz	0.370	3.38	0.278	2.70	0.259	0.742	0.335	3.29	0.266	0.02	23.2%
Kazmir	0.325	4.67	0.296	2.98	0.246	0.730	0.277	4.11	0.239	0.01	20.2%
Moore	0.338	6.67	0.330	4.10	0.259	0.727	0.314	4.32	0.27	0.01	19.9%
Hernandez	0.300	3.75	0.285	2.65	0.243	0.696	0.276	3.74	0.227	0.01	22.8%
Sanchez	0.366	4.19	0.206	1.91	0.266	0.746	0.252	4.33	0.222	0.00	17.7%
Peavy	0.329	4.19	0.327	4.70	0.262	0.780	0.298	3.85	0.263	0.01	17.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at SF) – Sanchez pitches in arguably baseball’s toughest division, but he has had no trouble in handling his AL East foes in four of his six starts this season. His worst two turns have both occurred outside the division, and today he travels outside the American League to face the Giants in one of baseball’s most difficult parks to hit home runs. Sanchez has heavy platoon splits that make him vulnerable to certain lineups, and though many of the big bats in the San Francisco lineup are also right-handed (Buster Posey, Hunter Pence), the Giants have hit slightly better against right-handers this season. The combination of the friendly venue, getting to face a pitcher at the bottom of the order and non-egregious splits should create a strong value-play today with Sanchez.

Sonny Gray OAK (at BOS) – The last two starts have been downright ugly for Gray, with 11 earned runs surrendered over 9.0 innings of work. If he is going to climb out of the considerable hole that he has dug for himself, then Gray is going to have to do so against a Boston ballclub that leads the AL at 5.04 runs scored per game and who paces the circuit in all three of the triple-slash categories, with a .281 team batting average.341 OBP and .454 slugging percentage. Gray’s limited K rate already caps his ceiling in DFS, and the recent struggles combined with the formidable opponent make him an easy pass in cash games today.

Matt Moore TB (at SEA) – Moore was looking very strong in his first three starts of the year, but he has really faltered in his last three turns: a 7.00 ERA, seven walks and four homers allowed in 18.0 innings with 16 strikeouts. Granted, Moore was facing tough offenses of the Yankees, Orioles and Dodgers, and today he gets a relative breather against the Mariners in Seattle, but even the Mariners have been hitting the ball hard over the last seven days with a team wOBA of .349 and a .810 OPS as a club. The call section is often full of intriguing arms that are worth a dip in large tournaments, but the top of today’s call list is littered with questionable scenarios that are probably best avoided given the top-heavy nature of today’s slate.

Jose Berrios MIN (vs. BAL) – Berrios is just not right mechanically, and though his stuff is electric and his ceiling is massive, the young right-hander is unlikely to flash his potential until he can display some command of the baseball. Everything he throws is missing targets badly to the arm-side, making life easy on opposing hitters as they can basically ignore the left side of the plate and wait for one of his right-side pitches to catch too much plate. The upside is tremendous and Berrios has a very bright future, but he is bench-worthy in DFS until he irons out the wrinkles in his own delivery.

Scott Kazmir LAD (vs. NYM)

Anibal Sanchez DET (at WAS)

Chris Young KC (at NYY)

Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. OAK)

Colby Lewis TEX (vs. CHW)

Tyler Wilson BAL (at MIN)

Cesar Vargas SD (at CHC)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. CLE)

Jon Niese PIT (at CIN)

Wily Peralta MIL (at MIA)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at TEX)

Dan Straily CIN (vs. PIT)