Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, August 13th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-14 00:31:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Andriese	TBR	NYY	146.1	3.44	4.01	1.18		18.5%	6.0%	0.80	1.34
Tanaka	NYY	TBR	300.1	3.42	3.57	1.05	66.7%	21.5%	4.5%	1.17	1.51
McHugh	HOU	TOR	332.1	4.20	3.90	1.36	42.9%	21.0%	6.3%	0.97	1.25
Sanchez	TOR	HOU	237.2	2.99	3.97	1.20		18.7%	8.8%	0.72	2.68
Weaver	STL	CHC
Hendricks	CHC	STL	313	3.19	3.57	1.10		22.0%	6.2%	0.78	1.83
Cole	PIT	LAD	306	2.71	3.51	1.15	28.6%	22.9%	5.8%	0.41	1.58
McCarthy	LAD	PIT	56	4.18	3.65	1.16	35.0%	28.3%	10.2%	1.77	0.93
Lopez	WAS	ATL
Anderson	COL	PHI	68	3.04	3.62	1.21		20.5%	5.4%	0.79	2.16
Eickhoff	PHI	COL	189	3.48	3.89	1.15		21.3%	5.7%	1.05	1.15
Bradley	ARI	BOS	125.2	5.08	4.73	1.54		19.8%	12.1%	1.07	1.65
Buchholz	BOS	ARI	203.2	4.33	4.18	1.30	33.3%	19.2%	7.1%	1.02	1.22
Straily	CIN	MIL	150.2	3.94	4.75	1.15	14.3%	19.2%	9.5%	1.19	0.73
Davies	MIL	CIN	152	3.61	4.17	1.19		18.7%	7.1%	0.95	1.66
Shields	CWS	MIA	331.2	4.50	4.28	1.42	42.9%	21.2%	9.6%	1.55	1.21
Conley	MIA	CWS	193.1	3.72	4.35	1.35		21.3%	9.4%	0.88	0.94
Gee	KCR	MIN	119	5.07	4.51	1.60	50.0%	16.0%	7.2%	1.51	1.30
Duffey	MIN	KCR	159.2	4.90	3.94	1.42		19.8%	6.4%	1.24	1.68
Shoemaker	LAA	CLE	268	4.26	3.90	1.25	44.4%	21.2%	5.5%	1.31	0.94
Clevinger	CLE	LAA	20.2	6.97	5.39	1.79		17.7%	13.5%	1.74	1.00
Cosart	SDP	NYM	97.2	4.88	4.97	1.52	31.6%	15.4%	12.9%	1.01	2.51
Degrom	NYM	SDP	317.1	2.47	3.22	1.02	50.0%	25.9%	5.3%	0.74	1.35
Boyd	DET	TEX	113	6.13	4.52	1.45		18.9%	7.9%	2.15	0.76
Hamels	TEX	DET	358.2	3.34	3.67	1.21	58.8%	24.0%	7.9%	1.00	1.55
Gausman	BAL	SFG	228.2	4.13	3.75	1.27	37.5%	22.3%	6.0%	1.50	1.15
Bumgarner	SFG	BAL	382	2.62	3.15	1.01	47.6%	27.3%	5.2%	0.92	1.06
Iwakuma	SEA	OAK	274.1	3.67	3.90	1.17	60.0%	19.9%	4.8%	1.25	1.24
Graveman	OAK	SEA	243.2	4.17	4.50	1.40		14.7%	7.0%	1.15	1.82

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. BAL) – Bummer rebounded nicely from the eight-run disaster that he endured against the Phillies two starts ago, traveling to DC and limiting the Nats to one run and two hits over 8.0 innings, with seven strikeouts and two walks in the ballgame. The Orioles are a much different ballclub against southpaws, losing 37 points of wOBA and 69 points of OPS when compared to their overall numbers as an offense. The O’s have lefties that struggle against their own kind (Chris Davis) as well as a handful of high-powered right-handed bats that with reverse platoon splits (Adam Jones, +253 OPS vs. RHP in ‘16; Mark Trumbo, +168 OPS) or neutral splits (Manny Machado, +4 OPS vs. RHP in ‘16). Bumgarner already had the upper hand against the gp-big-or-go-home offense of the Orioles, but Baltimore’s team-wide issues with hitting southpaws will play even further into his favor.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jacob DeGrom NYM (vs. SD) – DeGrom had a hiccup a few starts ago, coughing up five runs and 10 hits to the Marlins without finishing the fourth inning, but he has been absolutely dominant in the other seven of his last eight starts. He gave up more runs in that one turn than in the other seven starts combined, in which he only gave up four runs across 49.2 innings (0.72 ERA) with a 44:9 K:BB. His ERA now ranks fourth in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw and a pair of pitchers who are also taking the mound today. Matching up with the Padres gives DeGrom the highest floor among the pitchers on today’s slate, and his ceiling ain’t so shabby either, as he demonstrated in a one-hit shutout of the Phillies (42.05 points on DraftKings) less than a month ago.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. DET) – Hamels survived Coors Field in his last start, giving up just two runs over six frames with six strikeouts and one walk allowed in the game. He is on an excellent five-start run, with a 1.83 ERA and 35:9 K:BB in 34.1 innings, but the performance becomes much more impressive when considering the gauntlet that endured to put up those numbers. It started with 8.0 scoreless innings against the mighty Cubs at Wrigley, was followed by a pair of great games against the Royals (one of which included 12 strikeouts), and then a pair of quality starts in Baltimore and Denver. He’s faced the Tigers once this season, spinning 7.0 one-hit innings with nine strikeouts, no walks and no runs allowed.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. HOU) – Sanchez gave up four runs and nine hits to the Royals in his last start, breaking a string of eight consecutive starts with two or fewer runs allowed, He also has a penchant for going deep into ballgames, having thrown 7.0 or more frames in 12 of his 22 starts this season (and 6.2 innings in three others). He doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, having exceeded seven punchouts in a game just twice this season, the first being an eight-K performance in his first game of the season. The other was a complete outlier, in which Sanchez whiffed 12 Tigers in 8.0 innings, but the free-swinging Astros might help him to crack the eight-K mark for the first time since that 12-strikeout performance in early June.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at LAD) – Cole gave up four runs in his last start, equalling the total runs that he had surrendered over the past three turns combined. He is starting to get the run prevention under control but the strikeouts that once bolstered his fantasy value have been conspicuously missing through the 2016 season. He hasn’t whiffed more than seven hitters in any start, and earlier in the season he had the heartbreaking game with zero strikeouts over seven full innings, giving up ten hits but just a single run due to a solo homer. Without the strikeouts it’s hard to say that Cole has fixed his value, even with the improvements in run prevention.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Andriese	0.298	3.48	0.272	3.42	0.247	0.724	0.281	3.57	0.242	0.00	18.5%
Tanaka	0.281	3.45	0.285	3.38	0.243	0.711	0.262	3.67	0.228	0.00	21.5%
McHugh	0.314	4.33	0.336	4.08	0.257	0.777	0.331	3.66	0.274	0.00	21.0%
Sanchez	0.331	3.66	0.233	2.36	0.248	0.742	0.266	3.81	0.227	0.00	18.7%
Weaver					0.248	0.739
Hendricks	0.312	2.72	0.253	3.55	0.261	0.759	0.276	3.35	0.227	0.00	22.0%
Cole	0.286	2.30	0.274	3.10	0.249	0.738	0.309	2.72	0.241	0.00	22.9%
McCarthy	0.309	3.04	0.300	5.01	0.260	0.726	0.244	4.69	0.208	0.03	28.3%
Whalen					0.248	0.723	0.259	5.22	0.22	0.00	25.0%
Lopez					0.252	0.681
Anderson	0.248	0.90	0.322	3.94	0.252	0.675	0.307	3.31	0.256	0.02	20.5%
Eickhoff	0.336	4.32	0.263	2.68	0.271	0.779	0.282	3.70	0.239	0.01	21.3%
Bradley	0.361	4.27	0.314	5.81	0.272	0.771	0.305	4.64	0.257	0.00	19.8%
Buchholz	0.318	4.59	0.311	4.08	0.262	0.734	0.301	3.98	0.258	0.00	19.2%
Straily	0.307	4.78	0.277	3.11	0.251	0.709	0.227	4.61	0.206	0.01	19.2%
Davies	0.308	2.66	0.288	4.44	0.248	0.708	0.275	3.92	0.24	0.01	18.7%
Shields	0.371	4.34	0.325	4.66	0.263	0.706	0.300	4.89	0.26	0.00	21.2%
Conley	0.334	3.79	0.311	3.71	0.248	0.679	0.301	4.01	0.247	0.01	21.3%
Gee	0.393	5.59	0.335	4.60	0.248	0.717	0.337	4.98	0.305	0.00	16.0%
Duffey	0.316	3.39	0.373	6.41	0.264	0.719	0.331	4.11	0.284	0.00	19.8%
Shoemaker	0.303	4.39	0.337	4.12	0.255	0.741	0.300	4.06	0.258	0.00	21.2%
Clevinger	0.281	3.75			0.257	0.721	0.323	5.89	0.289	0.00	17.7%
Cosart	0.328	4.62	0.343	5.14	0.240	0.707	0.279	5.00	0.251	0.00	15.4%
Degrom	0.273	2.69	0.242	2.23	0.239	0.686	0.277	2.82	0.217	0.01	25.9%
Boyd	0.412	8.54	0.359	5.40	0.261	0.744	0.299	5.73	0.279	0.00	18.9%
Hamels	0.270	2.04	0.304	3.71	0.271	0.782	0.289	3.72	0.233	0.00	24.0%
Gausman	0.285	2.87	0.365	5.43	0.263	0.734	0.299	4.24	0.257	0.00	22.3%
Bumgarner	0.231	2.43	0.272	2.65	0.238	0.676	0.272	3.00	0.213	0.00	27.3%
Iwakuma	0.315	3.55	0.297	3.79	0.248	0.702	0.287	3.95	0.252	0.00	19.9%
Graveman	0.342	3.71	0.320	4.63	0.249	0.737	0.301	4.55	0.275	0.00	14.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at SF) – Gausman is coming off a pair of strong starts, giving up two runs over seven frames against the Rangers followed by another two-run performance versus the A’s over 6.0 frames in his last start. The problem is that Gausman tends to drop a bomb every few starts, including six-run outings in each of the last two months. The downside is significant, but Gausman does a great job limiting the walks, having capped each of his 20 games at a maximum of three free passes in any single outing. The right-hander has stifled walks all season to along with a consistent strikeout-per-inning, but his best eforts have been thwarted by 21 home runs allowed in 116.1 innings of work.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. TB) – The Tanaka rollercoaster ride continues. Two starts ago, he coughed up seven runs (six earned) against the Mets, and in his last start Tanaka struck out a season-high eight batters while giving up one run in six frames. The past three months have seen frequent blowups and few strikeouts, leaving gamers who roster the right-hander to simply hope that he can keep runs off the scoreboard. It’s a frustrating way to play DFS, as rather than rooting for strikeouts you’re essentially rooting against runs scoring. He hasn’t walked more than two batters in a ballgame in any of his last 15 starts, but his copious strikes have been consistently hittable.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. STL) – Hendricks is on a hulluva ballclub, pumping up his won-loss record and enabling his fourth-ranked ERA to shine through thanks to a strong defensive corps. Hendricks has been one of the best pitchers in all the land over the past two months, with a 7-1 record and 51:16 K:BB ratio to go along with a 1.06 ERA in 59.1 innings pitched. Strikeouts aren’t typically a part of his repertoire, save for a random 12-K spike in mid-June (his next-highest total is eight), but he keeps the walks down and has escaped with a very low hit rate this season..His ceiling is theoretically capped due to his pedestrian K rate, and the fact that he is facing the high-powered Cardinals should price down even further.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at CLE)

Adam Conley MIA (vs. CHW)

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. COL)

Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. PIT)

Tyler Anderson COL (at PHI)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at OAK)

Reynaldo Lopez WAS (vs. ATL) – I wouldn’t trust Lopez in cash games, but he’s a great option for big tournaments. There is considerable upside in the strikeout department with Lopez, and though he has pitched fewer than 5.0 innings in each of his two starts in the majors, the Nats have extended him up to 105 pitches, and if he gets on a roll then Lopez might be given a long leash. It’s low-probability dice roll, but definitely worth a gamble considering that Lopez is super cheap (just $4100 on DraftKings) and is playing against the league’s worst offense. The Braves have had a weird knack for lighting up some of the best pitchers in the league, but the expectations are reversed for a pitcher like Lopez who lies on the other end of the spectrum.

Matt Andriese TB (at NYY)

Dan Straily CIN (at MIL)

Zach Davies MIL (vs. CIN)

Collin McHugh HOU (at TOR)

Kendall Graveman OAK (vs. SEA)

Dillon Gee KC (at MIN)

Jarred Cosart SD (at NYM)

Tyler Duffey MIN (vs. KC)