Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, May 28th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porcello | BOS | TOR | 229 | 4.56 | 3.69 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 20.9% | 5.3% | 1.26 | 1.36 |
| Stroman | TOR | BOS | 96.1 | 3.27 | 3.67 | 1.11 | 66.7% | 16.5% | 6.5% | 0.56 | 2.90 |
| Rodon | CWS | KCR | 191.2 | 3.94 | 4.10 | 1.45 | 22.7% | 10.7% | 0.89 | 1.60 | |
| Ventura | KCR | CWS | 212 | 4.25 | 4.16 | 1.36 | 44.4% | 20.8% | 10.0% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | CHC | 104.2 | 3.27 | 3.75 | 1.12 | 21.6% | 5.6% | 1.03 | 1.10 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | PHI | 226.1 | 3.82 | 3.40 | 1.14 | 22.1% | 5.9% | 0.76 | 2.02 | |
| Boyd | DET | OAK | 62 | 6.97 | 4.86 | 1.55 | 16.7% | 8.6% | 2.47 | 0.67 | |
| Hahn | OAK | DET | 121 | 3.50 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 57.1% | 14.4% | 6.3% | 0.74 | 2.27 |
| Jimenez | BAL | CLE | 234.2 | 4.53 | 4.07 | 1.45 | 27.8% | 20.6% | 9.3% | 0.96 | 1.78 |
| Salazar | CLE | BAL | 239.1 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 1.13 | 12.5% | 26.8% | 8.1% | 0.98 | 1.23 |
| Simon | CIN | MIL | 223.1 | 5.88 | 4.88 | 1.55 | 63.2% | 14.3% | 8.4% | 1.33 | 1.31 |
| Anderson | MIL | CIN | 201.2 | 4.55 | 4.31 | 1.32 | 40.0% | 17.6% | 6.6% | 1.34 | 1.14 |
| Chen | MIA | ATL | 246 | 3.62 | 3.97 | 1.24 | 31.6% | 19.4% | 5.2% | 1.32 | 1.04 |
| Blair | ATL | MIA | 21.1 | 7.59 | 6.35 | 1.88 | 8.3% | 12.4% | 0.42 | 1.12 | |
| Pineda | NYY | TBR | 210.1 | 4.84 | 3.18 | 1.31 | 75.0% | 23.7% | 4.0% | 1.33 | 1.55 |
| Moore | TBR | NYY | 114 | 5.45 | 4.30 | 1.50 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 1.42 | 1.11 | |
| Bumgarner | SFG | COL | 284.2 | 2.75 | 3.06 | 1.03 | 47.6% | 27.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.15 |
| Rusin | COL | SFG | 168.1 | 5.03 | 4.12 | 1.54 | 15.5% | 7.0% | 1.02 | 2.20 | |
| Maeda | LAD | NYM | 52 | 3.29 | 3.79 | 1.08 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 0.87 | 1.09 | |
| Syndergaard | NYM | LAD | 210.1 | 2.87 | 2.73 | 1.03 | 29.0% | 4.8% | 0.94 | 1.57 | |
| Nicasio | PIT | TEX | 100.2 | 4.11 | 3.84 | 1.47 | 35.7% | 24.5% | 11.1% | 0.63 | 1.26 |
| Darvish | TEX | PIT | |||||||||
| Wainwright | STL | WAS | 85.2 | 4.41 | 4.40 | 1.38 | 84.2% | 14.9% | 5.7% | 0.53 | 1.52 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | STL | 229 | 3.58 | 3.78 | 1.37 | 46.7% | 21.9% | 8.3% | 0.55 | 1.83 |
| Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 294.1 | 3.21 | 3.10 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 22.6% | 6.5% | 0.70 | 3.02 |
| Weaver | LAA | HOU | 211.1 | 4.81 | 4.90 | 1.30 | 52.4% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 1.49 | 0.71 |
| Hughes | MIN | SEA | 204 | 4.68 | 4.47 | 1.29 | 45.0% | 14.1% | 2.9% | 1.68 | 0.89 |
| Miley | SEA | MIN | 249.2 | 4.47 | 4.23 | 1.34 | 33.3% | 17.7% | 7.3% | 0.94 | 1.48 |
| Vargas | SDP | ARI | 32.1 | 3.34 | 4.13 | 1.48 | 19.2% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 2.12 | |
| Greinke | ARI | SDP | 287.1 | 2.32 | 3.34 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 23.1% | 4.7% | 0.69 | 1.48 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (vs. LAD) – Whosoever holds this hammer, if he be worthy, shall possess the power of Thor. Synder’s last two starts have been his best of the season, and that’s true whether looking at GameScore or fantasy points on DraftKings. His combined totals over the past two turns: zero earned runs over 14.0 innings, with 11 hits (10 singles, one double) and zero walks allowed while compiling 21 strikeouts. He broke eight or more Ks in all four of his April starts, endured a modest hiccup or two (each worth 12-15 points on DK), and jumped back onto his current run of dominance. Oh, he be worthy.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. BAL) – The inconsistency that plagued Salazar in the past has been a non-factor this season, riding a combination of high strikeout totals and low run counts to at least 20 fantasy points (DK) in seven of his nine starts this season, topping out at 36.25 points for his 7.2 scoreless innings against the Royals that featured nine strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed. He has faced only one tough offense so far, that being in his last turn in Fenway Park against the Red Sox, and though Boston’s bats roughed him up for four runs and 11 baserunners over 4.1 innings, they’ve been doing that to everyone this season. The O’s will be his second-toughest test of the season thus far, but his arsenal is better equipped to silence the boom-or-bust lineup of Baltimore.
Yu Darvish TEX (vs. PIT) – We’ve been waiting 20 months for this. Yu Darvish will be back on a big-league mound, and one can only hope that we will be treated to the same level of dominance that he put on display on a regular basis prior to going under the knife. It might seem ambitious to rank Darvish this highly sight unseen, but he was just that good when last we saw him and the minor-league stats paint the picture of an ace whose rust (if he ever had it) has already been shaken loose. He was just tuning up for the real thing, but the minor league numbers are impressive nonetheless: a 0.90 ERA over 20.0 IP with 21 strikeouts, six walks and just nine hits allowed, including one home run. Darvish is going to be on a pitch count of around 90 pitches, but he got through 6.0 innings in 87 pitches of his last rehab start and he might even generate enough points in five-plus frames to more than justify his salary. It’s no doubt a risky play, but on a day where upside is limited, Darvish is one of the more tempting options on board.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. STL) – The quality of arms on today’s slate takes a plunge after Darvish, which helps explain why he might be worth an investment even under the shroud of a limited pitch count. Gonzalez was a mess in 2015 yet is playing over his head this season. The lazy analysis would say that the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and while that might be true, I tend to lean on the side of legitimacy when it comes to his 2016 performance. His opponent also presents a daunting task, but the Cardinals are a much different ballclub when facing a left-handed pitcher, sinking to the bottom one-fifth of the league in wOBA (.298), OPS (.676) and strikeout percentage (22.8 percent).
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porcello | 0.329 | 4.37 | 0.331 | 4.80 | 0.258 | 0.773 | 0.317 | 4.03 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 20.9% |
| Stroman | 0.281 | 3.54 | 0.263 | 2.93 | 0.271 | 0.763 | 0.263 | 3.46 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 16.5% |
| Rodon | 0.245 | 3.04 | 0.351 | 4.32 | 0.267 | 0.716 | 0.318 | 3.98 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 22.7% |
| Ventura | 0.323 | 5.33 | 0.301 | 3.08 | 0.251 | 0.700 | 0.294 | 4.00 | 0.243 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Eickhoff | 0.356 | 4.59 | 0.233 | 2.10 | 0.250 | 0.742 | 0.273 | 3.56 | 0.232 | 0.01 | 21.6% |
| Hendricks | 0.330 | 3.32 | 0.257 | 4.18 | 0.244 | 0.677 | 0.289 | 3.27 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 22.1% |
| Boyd | 0.449 | 9.68 | 0.379 | 5.89 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.306 | 6.41 | 0.298 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Hahn | 0.334 | 4.65 | 0.246 | 2.36 | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.273 | 3.98 | 0.246 | 0.01 | 14.4% |
| Jimenez | 0.326 | 4.94 | 0.336 | 4.10 | 0.251 | 0.723 | 0.323 | 4.08 | 0.267 | 0.01 | 20.6% |
| Salazar | 0.291 | 3.60 | 0.276 | 2.82 | 0.257 | 0.760 | 0.274 | 3.44 | 0.214 | 0.01 | 26.8% |
| Simon | 0.385 | 5.84 | 0.342 | 5.94 | 0.255 | 0.711 | 0.312 | 5.09 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 14.3% |
| Anderson | 0.322 | 4.09 | 0.344 | 4.94 | 0.242 | 0.693 | 0.296 | 4.51 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 17.6% |
| Chen | 0.256 | 2.09 | 0.346 | 4.07 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.298 | 4.12 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Blair | 0.432 | 6.35 | 0.259 | 0.697 | 0.355 | 4.64 | 0.329 | 0.00 | 8.3% | ||
| Pineda | 0.337 | 4.56 | 0.341 | 5.08 | 0.244 | 0.706 | 0.343 | 3.62 | 0.281 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Moore | 0.348 | 6.12 | 0.357 | 5.18 | 0.252 | 0.728 | 0.331 | 4.68 | 0.289 | 0.00 | 18.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.232 | 2.57 | 0.276 | 2.79 | 0.257 | 0.699 | 0.282 | 2.90 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 27.2% |
| Rusin | 0.344 | 5.06 | 0.360 | 4.86 | 0.269 | 0.719 | 0.340 | 4.21 | 0.301 | 0.00 | 15.5% |
| Maeda | 0.256 | 2.55 | 0.283 | 3.95 | 0.243 | 0.715 | 0.259 | 3.53 | 0.214 | 0.03 | 22.9% |
| Syndergaard | 0.287 | 3.32 | 0.252 | 2.45 | 0.244 | 0.722 | 0.292 | 2.81 | 0.222 | 0.01 | 29.0% |
| Nicasio | 0.410 | 6.23 | 0.268 | 3.00 | 0.257 | 0.734 | 0.335 | 3.39 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 24.5% |
| Darvish | 0.267 | 0.742 | |||||||||
| Wainwright | 0.325 | 4.76 | 0.326 | 4.18 | 0.245 | 0.712 | 0.322 | 3.38 | 0.28 | 0.01 | 14.9% |
| Gonzalez | 0.276 | 2.98 | 0.313 | 3.75 | 0.233 | 0.676 | 0.325 | 3.18 | 0.258 | 0.01 | 21.9% |
| Keuchel | 0.233 | 3.34 | 0.289 | 3.17 | 0.234 | 0.670 | 0.288 | 3.13 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Weaver | 0.345 | 4.44 | 0.341 | 5.17 | 0.246 | 0.743 | 0.286 | 4.96 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 13.6% |
| Hughes | 0.334 | 4.41 | 0.357 | 4.92 | 0.245 | 0.729 | 0.300 | 4.76 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 14.1% |
| Miley | 0.292 | 3.90 | 0.333 | 4.64 | 0.252 | 0.708 | 0.303 | 3.97 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Vargas | 0.283 | 1.56 | 0.397 | 5.40 | 0.266 | 0.743 | 0.323 | 4.33 | 0.276 | 0.03 | 19.2% |
| Greinke | 0.267 | 2.52 | 0.235 | 2.15 | 0.238 | 0.671 | 0.254 | 2.93 | 0.208 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Kenta Maeda LAD (at NYM) – Apparently, the novelty has worn off. He was a six-inning shutout machine through his first several starts, but these days Maeda is the guy who gives up four runs every time that he toes the rubber. He’s surrendered exactly four tallies in four of the last five starts, and he hasn’t recorded more than 15 outs in a ballgame since May 6. It seemed as though it might just be a tough strong of opponents, but in his last start, Maeda gave up four runs in 5.0 innings to the Padres in San Diego. That was the final straw, and he has since been banished from the Raise realm until he can prove himself worthy again of such lofty title.
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. SD) – It doesn’t get much better than facing the Padres, and yet Greinke has fallen on such hard times that he still can’t crack the raise threshold. It doesn’t help that the Pads scored 10 runs last night in a thorough mashing of Robbie Ray, but the differences between nascent southpaw Ray and veteran right-hander Greinke are too many to list. Interestingly, Greinke’s 8.1 K/9 perfectly matches his rate from last year, and his 1.8 BB/9 are just a smudge worse than his 1.6 BB/9 of 2015. From a pure statistical standpoint, the entire difference in Greinke’s performance between last year and this boils down to balls in play, as his hit rate skyrocketed from 6.0 to 10.0 H/9 and his homer rate nearly doubled, going from last season’s 0.6 HR/9 to the current 1.1 HR/9 in 2016. He has shown signs of turning it around most recently as Greinke is coming off his best start of the season, holding the Cardinals to one run over 8.0 innings with seven strikeouts against one walk. Even with a few rough outings along the way, Greinke has pitched 6.0 or more innings in every start since his first turn of the year.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at KC) – Rodon has vastly trimmed his walk rate since last season and yet the WHIP has actually increased due to the multitude of hits that he is giving up with regularity this season. The home run rate has doubled from 0.7 to 1.4 HR/9 and the hits are untenable at 10.0 H/9, otherwise masking what has been a solid season of statistical improvement across the board. The White Sox have stretch him out to more than 100 pitches in each of his last couple starts
Madison Bumgarner SF (at COL) – His stuff doesn’t work quite as well at Coors, but considering his high baseline of performance and the fact that he has posted non-disgusting games at altitude in the past make him a better option today than half of the sea-level pitchers on slate. He has a career ERA of 4.21 at Coors, which is the highest of any ballpark in which he has pitched more than 27.0 innings, and the K rate has been impacted with just 52 strikeouts in 72.2 innings at altitude. Recent performance takes a backseat in a case like this, given the stark differences between pitching at altitude and just about every other endeavor on earth.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at ATL) – Chen gets the usual benefit for a southpaw facing the light-lumber Braves, zooming up the value boards yet still suffering from an extreme lack of upside.
Rick Porcello BOS (at TOR)
Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. BOS) – Facing the Red Sox is kinda like pitching at Coors, given that the level of difficulty is raised multiple bars due to the context. All being equal, Stroman’s talent pales in comparison to that of Bummer, and Stroman’s fantasy upside is limited due to a relatively low K count at the highest level.
Adam Wainwright STL (at WAS)
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at LAA)
Michael Pineda NYY (at TB)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. PHI)
Matt Moore TB (vs. NYY)
Yordano Ventura KC (vs. CHW)
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. DET)
Juan Nicasio PIT (at TEX)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at CLE)
Chase Anderson MIL (vs. CIN)
Matt Boyd DET (at OAK)
Cesar Vargas SD (at ARI)
Wade Miley SEA (vs. MIN)
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. HOU) – Weaver only avoids Fold status this time around because he is pitching at home and the right-hander carries a massive home/road split.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Phil Hughes MIN (at SEA)
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at CHC)
Aaron Blair ATL (vs. MIA)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. SF)
Alfredo Simon CIN (at MIL)
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