Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 5th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | HOU | NYY | 432 | 2.69 | 2.96 | 1.09 | 50.0% | 21.1% | 5.8% | 0.58 | 3.22 |
| Tanaka | NYY | HOU | 290.1 | 3.16 | 3.03 | 1.02 | 66.7% | 24.3% | 4.2% | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| Price | BOS | CLE | 468.2 | 2.88 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.2% | 4.5% | 0.81 | 1.09 |
| Kluber | CLE | BOS | 457.2 | 2.95 | 2.80 | 1.08 | 57.1% | 28.0% | 5.2% | 0.71 | 1.37 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | KCR | 150 | 3.24 | 2.95 | 1.05 | 27.5% | 5.1% | 1.14 | 1.38 | |
| Young | KCR | NYM | 288.1 | 3.40 | 5.20 | 1.17 | 47.4% | 16.1% | 8.7% | 1.31 | 0.41 |
| Wacha | STL | PIT | 288.1 | 3.31 | 3.92 | 1.21 | 53.3% | 20.4% | 7.5% | 0.78 | 1.32 |
| Niese | PIT | STL | 364.1 | 3.75 | 4.03 | 1.33 | 41.2% | 16.1% | 6.4% | 0.91 | 1.87 |
| Verlander | DET | MIA | 339.1 | 4.08 | 4.08 | 1.28 | 35.0% | 19.1% | 6.8% | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Chen | MIA | DET | 377 | 3.44 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 31.6% | 18.5% | 4.9% | 1.22 | 1.06 |
| Sanchez | TOR | TBR | 125.1 | 2.66 | 3.95 | 1.13 | 17.6% | 10.6% | 0.72 | 2.93 | |
| Odorizzi | TBR | TOR | 337.1 | 3.74 | 3.77 | 1.22 | 36.8% | 22.8% | 7.4% | 1.01 | 0.76 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | TEX | 308.2 | 3.53 | 3.12 | 1.06 | 60.0% | 21.6% | 3.4% | 1.11 | 1.69 |
| Perez | TEX | SEA | 130 | 4.43 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 37.5% | 15.2% | 7.9% | 0.42 | 2.48 |
| Cueto | SFG | MIL | 455.2 | 2.80 | 3.46 | 1.04 | 76.2% | 22.9% | 6.1% | 0.85 | 1.26 |
| Nelson | MIL | SFG | 246.2 | 4.34 | 3.99 | 1.33 | 19.3% | 7.9% | 0.88 | 1.66 | |
| Bettis | COL | ARI | 139.2 | 5.09 | 4.18 | 1.53 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 0.97 | 1.69 | |
| Miller | ARI | COL | 388.1 | 3.36 | 4.37 | 1.26 | 21.1% | 18.4% | 9.0% | 0.81 | 1.18 |
| Lester | CHC | LAA | 424.2 | 2.88 | 3.15 | 1.11 | 65.0% | 24.9% | 5.6% | 0.68 | 1.37 |
| Heaney | LAA | CHC | 135 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 1.23 | 25.0% | 17.4% | 6.2% | 1.00 | 1.03 |
| Quintana | CWS | OAK | 406.2 | 3.34 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 21.0% | 5.7% | 0.58 | 1.46 |
| Gray | OAK | CWS | 427 | 2.91 | 3.68 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.94 |
| Kazmir | LAD | SDP | 373.1 | 3.33 | 3.85 | 1.18 | 63.2% | 20.7% | 7.1% | 0.87 | 1.16 |
| Shields | SDP | LAD | 429.1 | 3.54 | 3.64 | 1.25 | 42.9% | 22.0% | 7.0% | 1.17 | 1.32 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
In general, I tend to fade pitchers slightly during opening week, largely due to the tendencies for managers to have an early hook in a pitcher’s first start of the season (see Matt Harvey 83-pitch outing on Sunday night). Fewer pitches mean fewer innings, strikeouts and expected fantasy points. The other reason that I am cautious with arms in their first turn is that pitchers tend to be very different creatures from one season to the next, and some pitchers take longer to get into “midseason” form than others. Case in point: Zack Greinke and Tyson Ross combined for 65 starts last season, and they each held opponents to five or fewer earned runs in every single one of them (Ross kept opponents under four earnies in each turn)… the pair combined to give up 14 ER on Opening Day.
Jon Lester CHC (at LAA) – Lester falls just outside the All-in level when looking at the pitcher pool in a vacuum, so opponents play a large role in determining his status on the daily hierarchy of available arms. The Angels lack the team speed to take advantage of Lester’s well-known weakness in holding runners (MLB-leading 44 steals allowed last season), as the Halos’ 52 stolen bases in 2015 represented the third-lowest total in the majors, a weakness that was not addressed in the offseason. There is a massive disparity between the Angels’ core bats – Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun – and the other six spots in the lineup, so Lester’s ability to avoid punishment from the top of the order will have a large impact on his overall day. Lester is right on the edge of the highest level, and he was pushed over that ledge thanks to a slate that is lacking in other All-In options.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Johnny Cueto SF (at MIL) – Cueto will enjoy the friendly confines of AT&T Park this season, but first he must survive the gauntlet of Miller Park, a venue which ranked in the top three in baseball for home run friendliness to both right- and left-handed batters last season. Cueto will be helped by the current state of the Brewers, a shell of a ballclub whose only daunting bat (Ryan Braun) is dealing with back issues that are lingering from offseason surgery. Cueto loves to pull new tricks out of his bag, from Luis Tiant twists to quick-pitches, mid-delivery pauses and even head dekes, but the nonstop quest for deception hit critical mass last season, as he was unable to harness the myriad timing patterns and struggled to find a consistent release point. Giants’ pitching coach Dave Righetti has had success with all sorts of pitchers with varying degrees of funk, and I expect that he’ll help the right-hander to keep things simple and reap the benefits to his stat-line.
Jose Quintana CHW (at OAK) – Quintana continues to be underrated by the fantasy community due to an unsexy profile that included a modest strikeout rate of 20.5% last season. He counterbalances the lack of Ks with very few walks (5.1% walk rate in ’15), and though many pitchers of that ilk suffer from high home run rates due to the copious amount of strikes that they throw, Quintana has avoided that fate thus far, including a rate of 0.6 HR/9 over the last two seasons. He is set up with a pitcher-friendly ballpark and an opposing lineup that strikes fear in nobody, making the consistent Quintana a sneaky-good play tonight against the Athletics.
James Shields SD (vs. LAD) – Shields was a quality-start machine of durability and consistency when the Padres signed him over a year ago, and though he had his usual 200 frames (ninth straight season) of 180 or more strikeouts (sixth straight), there were oddities to his 2015 campaign that have clouded his outlook. Shields waked batters at a far higher clip than ever before, as the pitcher with a career walk rate of 5.7% suddenly coughed up free passes to 9.5% of the batters he faced. He has long been vulnerable to the home run, but last season’s rate of 3.8% home runs was the worst of his career, despite pitching his home games in Petco Park. The marine layer was a bit thin last season, as Petco played neutral instead of being a pitcher’s haven, and there was certainly nothing stopping the Dodgers last night as they plated 15 runs. There’s considerable risk here, but there’s considerable value as well.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keuchel | 0.268 | 2.61 | 0.283 | 2.71 | 0.266 | 0.837 | 0.282 | 3.05 | 0.231 | 105.03 | 21.1% |
| Tanaka | 0.280 | 2.41 | 0.289 | 3.04 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.269 | 3.54 | 0.227 | 97.70 | 24.3% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.275 | 2.92 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.299 | 2.78 | 0.233 | 107.85 | 26.2% |
| Kluber | 0.304 | 2.53 | 0.242 | 2.72 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.307 | 2.65 | 0.23 | 102.62 | 28.0% |
| Syndergaard | 0.262 | 2.77 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.279 | 3.25 | 0.221 | 99.17 | 27.5% | ||
| Young | 0.355 | 3.63 | 0.259 | 3.29 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.226 | 4.80 | 0.216 | 73.50 | 16.1% |
| Wacha | 0.266 | 2.96 | 0.310 | 3.53 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.278 | 3.61 | 0.232 | 94.51 | 20.4% |
| Niese | 0.289 | 4.21 | 0.329 | 3.77 | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.302 | 4.03 | 0.267 | 87.19 | 16.1% |
| Verlander | 0.305 | 3.45 | 0.337 | 5.26 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.299 | 3.65 | 0.254 | 106.90 | 19.1% |
| Chen | 0.298 | 3.20 | 0.337 | 3.82 | 0.273 | 0.777 | 0.293 | 4.03 | 0.26 | 96.56 | 18.5% |
| Sanchez | 0.223 | 1.54 | 0.189 | 1.83 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.225 | 4.13 | 0.198 | 29.45 | 17.6% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 3.94 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.283 | 3.68 | 0.234 | 98.02 | 22.8% |
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.42 | 0.263 | 3.74 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.281 | 3.45 | 0.241 | 91.88 | 21.6% |
| Perez | 0.312 | 7.71 | 0.336 | 4.26 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.321 | 3.52 | 0.276 | 90.55 | 15.2% |
| Cueto | 0.257 | 2.05 | 0.290 | 3.34 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.260 | 3.41 | 0.214 | 104.95 | 22.9% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.280 | 3.55 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.303 | 4.01 | 0.256 | 88.64 | 19.3% |
| Bettis | 0.394 | 8.49 | 0.374 | 5.48 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.329 | 4.14 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.285 | 3.15 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.271 | 3.96 | 0.233 | 93.92 | 18.4% |
| Lester | 0.309 | 1.99 | 0.282 | 2.91 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.301 | 2.86 | 0.235 | 104.34 | 24.9% |
| Heaney | 0.336 | 4.79 | 0.287 | 0.766 | 0.285 | 4.10 | 0.252 | 84.96 | 17.4% | ||
| Quintana | 0.302 | 4.86 | 0.306 | 3.00 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.323 | 3.00 | 0.262 | 104.98 | 21.0% |
| Gray | 0.289 | 2.81 | 0.271 | 3.47 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.267 | 3.46 | 0.222 | 99.58 | 20.4% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.68 | 0.286 | 3.13 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.279 | 3.66 | 0.235 | 94.03 | 20.7% |
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.299 | 3.32 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.297 | 4.00 | 0.25 | 104.00 | 22.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Scott Kazmir LAD (at SD) – Kazmir received Raise consideration due to the weak opponent, as the Padres have zero star power yet started four different players on Opening Day that would best fit in the eight-spot of a National League lineup. Facing Clayton Kershaw will make any batter look bad, but the Padres represent an extremely easy target. Kazmir needs to be careful of the couple of legitimate bats in the San Diego lineup, though, as Matt Kemp and Derek Norris both take particular aim at left-handed pitchers.
Michael Wacha STL (at PIT) – Wacha began last season on a strike against strikeouts, with just 19 Ks in his first six starts and 38.2 innings pitched, a stretch of games just long enough to mar his strikeout rate for the season. Over his last 24 starts of the campaign, Wacha notched 134 strikeouts in 142.2 innings, nearly a K-per-inning pace. The low-whiff stretch has dented his value both in season-long fantasy and in DFS, and for the first few weeks of the 2016 season I am likely to seek out his services. The problem is that his division includes formidable opponents in Pittsburgh and Chicago, and it takes a roll of the dice to play him today versus the Pirates.
Justin Verlander DET (at MIA) – Verlander fell from perennial CY candidate to back-of-the-rotation fodder in the span of about two years, and all eyes were on him to see if he could reverse course last season. His first several starts were not encouraging, as he carried a 6.62 ERA through his first half-dozen turns, but Verlander resurrected his season (and maybe his career) by finishing the season on an 11-start run that included a 2.12 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 76.1 innings pitched. Expectations are all over the map for Verlander in 2016, and the playoff aspirations of the Tigers are strongly linked to the performance of his right arm. He starts the season with a solid matchup against a stars-n-scrubs lineup in a ballpark that will theoretically help to keep the home runs at bay – though they have yet to design a fence that Giancarlo Stanton cannot clear.
Shelby Miller ARI (vs. COL) – The regression police is out to get Miller, whose major-league resume is light on strikeouts, heavy on walks, and features an inconsistent track record of hits and homers allowed. The Rockies are playing away from Coors, which typically means a lot of zeroes for the visitors on the scoreboard, but Colorado’s destruction of Zack Greinke last night will certainly give Miller and the D’backs reason to pause. One thing’s for certain: the focus on Trevor Story (who hit two homers off of Greinke last night) will be doubled during the prep for game two of the series.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at TEX) – The question here is not performance so much as it is stamina. Iwakuma had an offseason deal nixed with the Dodgers on account of his medicals, and when the Mariners resigned him they did so with provisions to protect them in the event of injury. I’m not saying that he’s an immediate injury risk, but it does sound like the Mariners will take it easy on Iwakuma (especially early in the season) in order to protect their investment.
Aaron Sanchez TOR (at TB) – Sanchez will get to try his hand at the starting rotation out of the gate this season, with space cleared due to Marco Estrada trip to the disabled list and with Sanchez having earned a spot with his stellar spring. Sanchez was stretched out in camp, including 20.1 innings in spring games that was the most of any player in the organization. There are questions whether he has the repertoire or the mechanical consistency to be an effective starter, and his combination of youth and recent bullpen experience will likely lead to a brief outing against Tampa Bay even if Sanchez is cruising against the Rays and their Swiss cheese offense.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (vs. DET) – Chen was a misfit for the flyball hell of Camden Yards, but he should fit right in with his new digs. He’s coming off of a career-best season, which coincided nicely with free agency to earn him a big payday but may have over-rated his skills in fantasy circles. The move to Marlins Park is perfect, potentially curing the home run sickness to the his pitching line and allowing the control artist’s greatest strengths to play up a notch. He gets the ball in the Marlins’ opener, at home against the Tigers, a team that knows Chen well from his AL days and which has a trio of hitters that can mash lefties out of any ballpark: Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. TOR) – I like Odorizzi, but not versus Toronto.
Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. CHC) – I like Heaney, but not against the Cubs.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. SF)
Martin Perez TEX (vs. SEA)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jon Niese PIT (vs. STL)
Chris Bassitt OAK (vs. CHW)
Chad Bettis COL (at ARI)