Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Editor’s Note: Bartolo Colon will now start instead of Syndergaard against the Royals tonight.
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | COL | NYY | 193.1 | 4.79 | 4.10 | 1.43 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 1.07 | 1.79 | |
| Nova | NYY | COL | 154.1 | 4.96 | 4.25 | 1.37 | 25.0% | 15.8% | 6.6% | 1.34 | 1.78 |
| Perdomo | SDP | BAL | 42 | 8.79 | 4.24 | 2.14 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.50 | 2.69 | |
| Wilson | BAL | SDP | 103 | 3.93 | 4.90 | 1.25 | 11.4% | 6.3% | 0.70 | 1.50 | |
| Cueto | SFG | PIT | 314.2 | 3.00 | 3.71 | 1.09 | 76.2% | 21.0% | 5.2% | 0.69 | 1.36 |
| Boscan | PIT | SFG | 12.1 | 2.92 | 5.17 | 1.14 | 12.0% | 10.0% | 0.00 | 1.29 | |
| Corbin | ARI | TOR | 170 | 4.18 | 3.82 | 1.31 | 19.9% | 6.0% | 1.16 | 1.71 | |
| Estrada | TOR | ARI | 268.1 | 2.95 | 4.56 | 1.02 | 27.8% | 19.4% | 8.3% | 1.14 | 0.65 |
| Verlander | DET | SEA | 226.1 | 3.58 | 3.80 | 1.08 | 35.0% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 0.95 | 0.77 |
| Norris | ATL | MIA | 141 | 5.94 | 4.33 | 1.52 | 26.7% | 18.6% | 9.1% | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| Fernandez | MIA | ATL | 145.1 | 2.72 | 2.62 | 1.09 | 75.0% | 34.0% | 6.7% | 0.56 | 1.22 |
| Sale | CWS | BOS | 306.2 | 3.26 | 2.84 | 1.06 | 64.3% | 29.6% | 5.0% | 1.00 | 1.15 |
| Buchholz | BOS | CWS | 179.1 | 4.22 | 4.06 | 1.29 | 33.3% | 20.0% | 7.0% | 0.90 | 1.26 |
| Kennedy | KCR | NYM | 246 | 4.24 | 3.81 | 1.28 | 47.6% | 23.7% | 7.6% | 1.72 | 0.90 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | KCR | 235 | 2.76 | 2.74 | 1.02 | 29.1% | 4.6% | 0.88 | 1.57 | |
| Snell | TBR | CLE | |||||||||
| Kluber | CLE | TBR | 315.2 | 3.71 | 3.10 | 1.06 | 57.1% | 26.8% | 5.1% | 0.86 | 1.26 |
| Desclafani | CIN | TEX | 193.1 | 3.96 | 4.19 | 1.39 | 20.0% | 18.7% | 7.4% | 0.84 | 1.35 |
| Lewis | TEX | CIN | 297.2 | 4.08 | 4.49 | 1.17 | 11.8% | 16.3% | 4.9% | 1.15 | 0.78 |
| Wainwright | STL | CHC | 112.2 | 3.99 | 4.20 | 1.24 | 84.2% | 17.3% | 5.6% | 0.64 | 1.48 |
| Hammel | CHC | STL | 246.1 | 3.29 | 3.66 | 1.13 | 47.4% | 23.3% | 6.3% | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| Santiago | LAA | HOU | 253.2 | 4.08 | 4.50 | 1.28 | 16.7% | 20.6% | 9.3% | 1.53 | 0.65 |
| McHugh | HOU | LAA | 281 | 4.16 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 20.4% | 6.1% | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| Nola | PHI | MIN | 162.1 | 3.55 | 3.33 | 1.16 | 24.0% | 5.7% | 1.11 | 1.78 | |
| Duffey | MIN | PHI | 114.2 | 4.32 | 3.89 | 1.42 | 20.5% | 6.8% | 0.94 | 1.64 | |
| Nelson | MIL | OAK | 262.1 | 4.05 | 4.28 | 1.31 | 19.3% | 9.1% | 1.03 | 1.65 | |
| Gray | OAK | MIL | 274.2 | 3.41 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 60.0% | 19.7% | 7.6% | 0.92 | 1.75 |
| Roark | WAS | LAD | 197 | 3.84 | 4.04 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 17.8% | 6.8% | 1.05 | 1.77 |
| Kazmir | LAD | WAS | 260.2 | 3.56 | 4.05 | 1.23 | 63.2% | 21.7% | 8.2% | 1.10 | 1.13 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jose Fernandez MIA (ATL) – A peak Fernandez (1.34 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and 71 Ks in his last 47 IP) against the Braves – even the streaking Braves (5 straight!) – should probably cost $20,000 to roster at all outlets.
Johnny Cueto SF (at PIT) – He doesn’t have the strikeout prowess of his colleagues in the ace tier, but it hasn’t stopped him from being dominant. Consider that his 25.1 points per game at DraftKings is better than Chris Sale (23.9), Stephen Strasburg (24.3), Noah Syndergaard (24.7), David Price (20.8), and Jon Lester (23.6) to name a few. He’s also just a half-point behind Max Scherzer (25.6). He’s gone fewer than six innings just once and fewer than seven innings just thrice. While he is better at home (1.95 ERA, 0.90 WHIP), he’s perfectly capable of road domination (2.28, 1.12).
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Justin Verlander DET (SEA) – JV is knocking on the door of the All-In tier with his last eight starts: 2.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP with 64 strikeouts in 58.3 IP. Over the past calendar year, Verlander is 23rd in ERA at 3.44 in 214.7 IP (good for 14th-most). He has 7+ strikeouts in seven of his last eight, aiding him to a 27.4 PPG average at DraftKings. The Mariners have hit righties well this year, sitting third in wRC+ against righties. They do a lot of damage via the longball, but Verlander has allowed just 0.62 HR/9 in this big eight-start stretch of excellence.
Chris Sale CWS (at BOS) – Sale might be glad to get out of the division for a start, but heading to Boston isn’t exactly a chance to get right. He’s posted a 6.07 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in his last five starts facing both Detroit and KC twice and Cleveland once. He’s only got two quality starts and he hasn’t reached his 23.9 PPG average in any of the five starts. Add in that he’s going to Boston and the result was a drop in tier for today. The Red Sox are 5th in wRC+ against lefties and they have the 8th-lowest strikeout rate (20%).
Aaron Nola PHI (at MIN) – Minnesota is a good spot to get right and Nola needs it. He has just had his two worst starts of the season, failing to finish four in either and allowing 10 ER in the 6.7 IP of work. The Jays are looking like the 2015 version of late so it’s hard to crush him too much for getting tattooed by them and the Nats are no joke, either. He is still in just his first full season so he’s allowed to have a down outing or two. He has done his best work on the road this year, too: 2.27 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 43 Ks, and a 6.2 K:BB ratio in 43.7 IP.
Corey Kluber CLE (TB) – Doug will be back soon so my future opinions of pitchers don’t really matter, but if it were up to me, Kluber would be facing a more permanent move into the Raise tier. His last four starts are a perfect microcosm for why he’s so frustrating these days: 7 IP/6 ER, 6 IP/0 ER, 9 IP/2 ER, and 5 IP/8 ER. Of course, he’s fanned at least six in all four starts, posting 27 punchouts against just four walks. But I think we have to adjust our thoughts on K:BB ratios in this era as a good one doesn’t guarantee success. The matchup keeps Kluber firmly on the radar, but I’m looking elsewhere in most cases today.
Marco Estrada TOR (ARI) – Estrada has been super-impressive this year, but I still struggle to roster him in DFS, especially now that his price is commensurate with the excellent performance. He’s up over $11K at DraftKings today. He’s capable of running up some strikeouts in any given outing, notching 8+ five different times this year, but he’s also tabbed five or fewer in seven of his 13 starts. He’s holding both righties and lefties to a sub-.600 OPS thanks to an MLB-best 5.4 H/9. He also crushes at home: 1.77 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 40.7 IP.
Sonny Gray OAK (MIL) – Gray’s been really sharp since returning from the DL outside of a disastrous sixth inning against Texas his last time out (5 ER). Even with that he has a 3.86 ERA in 18.7 IP. More importantly, his last three starts have seen his three best average fastball readings, including a season-high 94.2 MPH against the Rangers. He has only fanned 12 in the three starts, but the Brewers’ 26% strikeout rate against righties is a league-high.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bettis | 0.318 | 4.67 | 0.358 | 4.91 | 0.247 | 0.729 | 0.319 | 4.12 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 18.4% |
| Nova | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.329 | 4.82 | 0.271 | 0.780 | 0.296 | 4.77 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 15.8% |
| Perdomo | 0.385 | 8.02 | 0.455 | 9.58 | 0.258 | 0.766 | 0.416 | 5.34 | 0.361 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Wilson | 0.305 | 3.29 | 0.307 | 4.66 | 0.239 | 0.676 | 0.273 | 4.03 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 11.4% |
| Cueto | 0.267 | 2.47 | 0.292 | 3.47 | 0.264 | 0.735 | 0.281 | 3.18 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 21.0% |
| Boscan | 0.263 | 0.737 | 0.231 | 3.37 | 0.2 | 0.02 | 12.0% | ||||
| Corbin | 0.271 | 2.37 | 0.344 | 4.70 | 0.266 | 0.789 | 0.312 | 3.96 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 19.9% |
| Estrada | 0.273 | 3.05 | 0.261 | 2.83 | 0.263 | 0.736 | 0.207 | 4.29 | 0.191 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Paxton | 0.426 | 6.48 | 0.283 | 2.99 | 0.273 | 0.789 | 0.316 | 4.01 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 21.4% |
| Verlander | 0.262 | 2.71 | 0.299 | 4.45 | 0.248 | 0.737 | 0.269 | 3.50 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 23.1% |
| Norris | 0.387 | 6.35 | 0.329 | 5.55 | 0.260 | 0.695 | 0.318 | 4.75 | 0.277 | 0.00 | 18.6% |
| Fernandez | 0.336 | 3.50 | 0.207 | 2.15 | 0.253 | 0.677 | 0.335 | 2.11 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 34.0% |
| Sale | 0.276 | 3.40 | 0.279 | 3.23 | 0.273 | 0.766 | 0.302 | 2.95 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 29.6% |
| Buchholz | 0.315 | 4.28 | 0.305 | 4.15 | 0.249 | 0.698 | 0.306 | 3.76 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Kennedy | 0.349 | 4.50 | 0.329 | 4.00 | 0.242 | 0.714 | 0.287 | 4.75 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 23.7% |
| Syndergaard | 0.293 | 3.16 | 0.242 | 2.42 | 0.268 | 0.734 | 0.292 | 2.69 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 29.1% |
| Snell | 0.265 | 0.730 | |||||||||
| Kluber | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.244 | 3.33 | 0.243 | 0.708 | 0.293 | 2.96 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 26.8% |
| Desclafani | 0.348 | 4.69 | 0.305 | 3.14 | 0.258 | 0.740 | 0.322 | 3.78 | 0.273 | 0.01 | 18.7% |
| Lewis | 0.314 | 4.04 | 0.293 | 4.13 | 0.245 | 0.703 | 0.272 | 4.18 | 0.249 | 0.00 | 16.3% |
| Wainwright | 0.296 | 4.10 | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.248 | 0.738 | 0.304 | 3.42 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 17.3% |
| Hammel | 0.306 | 2.89 | 0.287 | 3.59 | 0.265 | 0.759 | 0.276 | 3.64 | 0.229 | 0.01 | 23.3% |
| Santiago | 0.285 | 2.95 | 0.330 | 4.46 | 0.244 | 0.744 | 0.256 | 4.91 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 20.6% |
| McHugh | 0.314 | 4.47 | 0.326 | 3.88 | 0.253 | 0.715 | 0.323 | 3.61 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 20.4% |
| Nola | 0.314 | 3.80 | 0.274 | 3.38 | 0.243 | 0.696 | 0.293 | 3.53 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 24.0% |
| Duffey | 0.325 | 3.04 | 0.339 | 5.32 | 0.241 | 0.675 | 0.336 | 3.66 | 0.279 | 0.01 | 20.5% |
| Nelson | 0.363 | 5.29 | 0.277 | 3.07 | 0.249 | 0.699 | 0.283 | 4.38 | 0.244 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Gray | 0.278 | 2.76 | 0.295 | 4.08 | 0.254 | 0.713 | 0.268 | 3.81 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
| Roark | 0.321 | 3.10 | 0.306 | 4.50 | 0.242 | 0.720 | 0.293 | 4.16 | 0.258 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Kazmir | 0.318 | 4.46 | 0.297 | 3.22 | 0.266 | 0.775 | 0.276 | 4.11 | 0.233 | 0.00 | 21.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
James Paxton SEA (at DET) – After getting trounced by San Diego (of all teams), Paxton has ripped off three straight quality starts with 22 Ks in 18.3 IP and 22.5 PPG over at DK. Eno Sarris at Fangraphs highlights how a change in arm slot has unlocked some incredible velocity (97.5 MPH average fastball, 2nd to only Thor) and also contributed to the best control we’ve seen from him as a major leaguer (2.5 BB/9). The Tigers and their righty-leaning lineup are always tough on lefties and we’re still dealing with a small sample of success for Paxton, but it’s hard not to be excited by what we’ve seen from him. And he’s still priced to buy.
Adam Wainwright STL (at CHC) – Waino has put up a strong 2.50 ERA in his last six starts, but really his last three have been Vintage Waino: 1.80 ERA and 21 Ks in 20 IP. Prior to June, he hadn’t notched more than five strikeouts in any outing, but has 6, 9, and 6 in his last three. He also allowed at least 6 hits in 10 of his first 11 starts heading into June before holding the Giants, Reds, and Astros to five or fewer in these three gems. Even with the improved performance, there are still probably too many good options for me to choose Waino today, but the price does keep me interested. He’s still quite cheap (especially at DK) thanks to his early season struggles and the fact that he’s facing the Cubs. I’m trusting Wainwright in season-long leagues, but he’s a tough sell in this particular matchup today.
Jason Hammel CHC (STL) – When he left his start on May 30th after just two innings, it was hard not to worry that another injury was derailing another great run by Hammel, but he didn’t miss any time and he’s been sharp in three starts since that hiccup (2.75 ERA, 0.81 WHIP). The Cards haven’t found much success against Hammel this year (1.35 ERA in 13.3 IP), but that’s definitely a new development: 6.05 ERA in 22.3 IP over 2014-15.
Ian Kennedy KC (at NYM) – Kennedy had a 2.13 ERA through his first six starts this year, allowing just three homers. He allowed three homers in his seventh start alone and has allowed 13 in his last seven all told, en route to a horrific 6.13 ERA. So why isn’t this is a flat-out fold? Because the Mets are brutal. Their 3.37 runs per game over the last month is second-worst in baseball, ahead of only the Phillies at a comical 2.90. They still have the 18th-most homers over that span, though, so I bet we still see a couple solo shots off of Kennedy.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at OAK) – The main reason I’d consider Nelson is his opponent. He carried a 2.88 ERA into June, but has already added more than a run to his bottom line thanks to a pair of six-run outings, both on the road. He has cut into his platoon split, but not nearly enough to offset the fact that righties have improved by nearly 200 points of OPS against him from .568 to .753. His strikeouts are down, walks & homers are up and frankly, he’s lucky to have a 3.92 ERA. His FIP is a run higher at 4.93. If you were looking to him as a money-saving option, you’re better off with Waino at DK and Paxton at FD.
Blake Snell TB (at CLE) – I’m just not sure we can rely on Snell for more than 5 innings at this juncture, making him a really tough sell in DFS, especially with a team like Tampa Bay who are known for easing their pitchers into the mix. He’ll probably live around the 90-95 pitch area for the first handful of starts before being allowed to take on the lineup a third time.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Patrick Corbin ARI (at TOR) – This could be REALLY ugly.
Chad Bettis COL (at NYY) – His ERA is over 5.00 both home and away.
Bud Norris ATL (at MIA) – I don’t buy this little run.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window