Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 10th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulmer | DET | WAS | 10 | 6.30 | 3.56 | 2.00 | 20.8% | 6.3% | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Ross | WAS | DET | 106 | 2.97 | 3.76 | 1.08 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 0.59 | 1.47 | |
| Medlen | KCR | NYY | 80.2 | 4.80 | 4.63 | 1.43 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 0.89 | 1.51 | |
| Tanaka | NYY | KCR | 193.1 | 3.26 | 3.29 | 0.98 | 66.7% | 22.8% | 4.5% | 1.26 | 1.56 |
| Davies | MIL | MIA | 53.1 | 4.89 | 4.64 | 1.48 | 16.0% | 10.8% | 0.68 | 2.26 | |
| Conley | MIA | MIL | 99.1 | 3.53 | 3.90 | 1.23 | 22.6% | 8.3% | 0.91 | 0.99 | |
| Manaea | OAK | BOS | 10 | 7.20 | 4.44 | 1.60 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| O’Sullivan | BOS | OAK | 72 | 6.13 | 5.15 | 1.61 | 10.8% | 6.0% | 2.00 | 1.04 | |
| Morgan | PHI | ATL | 93.1 | 4.63 | 4.82 | 1.28 | 14.8% | 5.1% | 1.45 | 0.64 | |
| Wisler | ATL | PHI | 142.1 | 4.36 | 4.86 | 1.33 | 15.6% | 8.0% | 1.26 | 0.80 | |
| Nicasio | PIT | CIN | 89.2 | 3.61 | 3.89 | 1.48 | 35.7% | 24.6% | 11.9% | 0.50 | 1.32 |
| Simon | CIN | PIT | 208 | 5.54 | 4.81 | 1.51 | 63.2% | 14.8% | 8.5% | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Rodon | CWS | TEX | 172.1 | 3.86 | 4.13 | 1.43 | 22.9% | 11.3% | 0.78 | 1.66 | |
| Holland | TEX | CWS | 90.1 | 5.08 | 4.70 | 1.33 | 15.4% | 7.3% | 1.39 | 1.01 | |
| Rea | SDP | CHC | 67 | 4.03 | 4.26 | 1.30 | 18.5% | 8.7% | 0.81 | 1.68 | |
| Hendricks | CHC | SDP | 209 | 3.83 | 3.36 | 1.14 | 22.3% | 5.7% | 0.78 | 2.01 | |
| Gausman | BAL | MIN | 131.1 | 3.84 | 3.69 | 1.15 | 37.5% | 21.7% | 5.9% | 1.23 | 1.17 |
| Hughes | MIN | BAL | 187.2 | 4.65 | 4.38 | 1.31 | 45.0% | 14.7% | 3.0% | 1.58 | 0.93 |
| Bauer | CLE | HOU | 197 | 4.61 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 38.5% | 22.9% | 10.5% | 1.19 | 1.01 |
| Devenski | HOU | CLE | |||||||||
| De La Rosa | ARI | COL | 218 | 4.67 | 4.07 | 1.34 | 57.1% | 19.4% | 7.8% | 1.49 | 1.53 |
| Rusin | COL | ARI | 152 | 5.21 | 4.21 | 1.57 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 1.13 | 2.08 | |
| Leake | STL | LAA | 226.1 | 4.06 | 4.21 | 1.19 | 45.0% | 15.2% | 6.2% | 1.11 | 1.92 |
| Santiago | LAA | STL | 218.1 | 3.59 | 4.43 | 1.25 | 16.7% | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.44 | 0.62 |
| Degrom | NYM | LAD | 213.2 | 2.49 | 3.10 | 1.01 | 50.0% | 26.2% | 5.1% | 0.72 | 1.32 |
| Wood | LAD | NYM | 222.2 | 4.04 | 4.14 | 1.37 | 58.3% | 17.6% | 7.5% | 0.77 | 1.86 |
| Smyly | TBR | SEA | 106.1 | 2.96 | 3.06 | 1.03 | 50.0% | 29.3% | 6.6% | 1.35 | 0.78 |
| Miley | SEA | TBR | 231.2 | 4.51 | 4.20 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 17.7% | 7.3% | 0.85 | 1.56 |
| Happ | TOR | SFG | 211.2 | 3.40 | 3.94 | 1.25 | 30.8% | 20.1% | 6.3% | 0.85 | 1.21 |
| Cain | SFG | TOR | 91.2 | 6.48 | 4.78 | 1.57 | 40.0% | 14.9% | 7.0% | 1.77 | 0.86 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
There were a couple of rainouts on yesterday’s slate, so please excuse the recycled comments from Monday’s piece, starting at the top with with Jon Lester.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. SD) – The Cubs have been an unstoppable force lately, thoroughly massacring opponents on both sides of the ball, and Lester has quietly been an immovable object as the no. 2 man in the rotation behind Jake Arrieta. Lester’s peripheral stats are right in line with last season, whiffing nearly a batter per inning and walking just two hitters per nine innings. The K count has fluctuated pretty wildly from game to game, with five or fewer punchouts in four of his six starts yet breaking double digits in the other two turns, but he has yet to give up more than a pair of walks and teams have scored more than one run against him just once in six games. Lester is coming off a season-low 5.2 innings against the Pirates, keeping him from a six-game string of quality starts, but his efficiency with pitch counts has kept Lester at 106 throws or fewer in each turn this season. It’s a tough call between Lester and deGrom, but the Cubs southpaw gets the nod thanks to a weak opponent who yields a string of blue squares on the Daily Matchup Chart in the SP Hub, here at RotoGrinders.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at LAD) – deGrom had built his pitch count up to 99 pitches in his start against the Giants on April 30, but rather than continue the rise in his pitch-related workload, deGrom was pulled from his last turn with just 5.0 innings under his belt and 86 pitches already thrown. He hasn’t cleared more than 18 outs in any of his fur starts this season and his strikeouts have been lacking, and if that trend continues then deGrom will need pitch efficiency if he is to clear out more innings in today’s start. The ranking might have some residual love patterns leftover from last season, as the limited K count has stifled his earning potential.
Drew Smyly TB (at SEA) – The strikeouts just continue to pile up for Smyly, who is up to 47 Ks this season in 39.2 innings pitched. He kept the noise level down to a modest six punchouts against the Dodgers in his last start, yet it still helped his frequency as Smyly lasted just 5.0 innings in that game. Since giving up three home runs in his first turn of the season, an excusable offense given his Toronto opponent, the southpaw has given up just two homers total over his last 33.0 innings of work.
Joe Ross WAS (vs. DET) – Leaving out the blister-shortened start of April 20, Ross has been an efficient out-generating machine. In each of the other five turns, Ross has thrown 6.0 innings or more with exactly two walks given away in each ballgame, and he hasn’t given up more than two runs in any one of his games yet this season. He also had his best game of the year in his last time out, limiting the mighty Cubs to two runs over 6.2 innings with a season-high nine strikeouts. He’s a silent assassin, as the modest strikeout rate keeps him under the radar of many gamers, but after that Cubs game the word of his legend could spread like wildfire.
Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. KC) – Tanaka had given up exactly two earned runs in each of his first five starts, producing a stat-line that’s a bit creepy but ridiculously consistent, though we can live with a little haunt if he continues to shut down solid offenses. He finally broke that string in his last start, blanking the Orioles over eight frames (in Camden Yards, of all places) in a game that tied his season-high with seven strikeouts. His strikeouts are solid this season, falling just short of a K-per-inning at 35 punchouts in 39.1 innings punched, but the control has been incredible. Tanaka walked four Blue Jays back on April 12, in his second start of the season, but outside of that game Tanaka has walked just three batters in 34.1 innings of work. It’s incredible what he is doing with a compromised UCL.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulmer | 0.245 | 0.709 | 0.455 | 4.57 | 0.378 | 0.00 | 20.8% | ||||
| Ross | 0.342 | 3.21 | 0.192 | 2.78 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.261 | 3.20 | 0.213 | 0.01 | 21.5% |
| Medlen | 0.329 | 4.85 | 0.320 | 4.74 | 0.245 | 0.727 | 0.294 | 4.34 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 16.7% |
| Tanaka | 0.288 | 3.84 | 0.268 | 2.71 | 0.265 | 0.728 | 0.244 | 3.70 | 0.213 | 0.01 | 22.8% |
| Davies | 0.317 | 3.57 | 0.353 | 5.87 | 0.259 | 0.696 | 0.307 | 4.22 | 0.265 | 0.02 | 16.0% |
| Conley | 0.378 | 6.60 | 0.288 | 2.99 | 0.233 | 0.684 | 0.289 | 3.70 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 22.6% |
| Manaea | 0.267 | 0.744 | 0.310 | 5.67 | 0.275 | 0.00 | 19.6% | ||||
| O’Sullivan | 0.473 | 7.76 | 0.337 | 5.02 | 0.248 | 0.700 | 0.314 | 6.11 | 0.313 | 0.00 | 10.8% |
| Morgan | 0.286 | 4.71 | 0.348 | 4.60 | 0.228 | 0.619 | 0.284 | 4.75 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 14.8% |
| Wisler | 0.391 | 5.04 | 0.265 | 3.81 | 0.243 | 0.677 | 0.273 | 4.79 | 0.253 | 0.01 | 15.6% |
| Nicasio | 0.392 | 5.22 | 0.270 | 2.83 | 0.246 | 0.702 | 0.332 | 3.28 | 0.249 | 0.00 | 24.6% |
| Simon | 0.384 | 5.46 | 0.333 | 5.63 | 0.266 | 0.738 | 0.307 | 4.99 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 14.8% |
| Rodon | 0.239 | 3.38 | 0.348 | 4.07 | 0.257 | 0.737 | 0.313 | 3.89 | 0.247 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Holland | 0.287 | 4.60 | 0.354 | 5.18 | 0.240 | 0.651 | 0.282 | 4.92 | 0.263 | 0.01 | 15.4% |
| Rea | 0.268 | 3.57 | 0.364 | 4.73 | 0.249 | 0.742 | 0.283 | 3.98 | 0.241 | 0.01 | 18.5% |
| Hendricks | 0.341 | 3.62 | 0.251 | 3.98 | 0.242 | 0.681 | 0.291 | 3.26 | 0.238 | 0.01 | 22.3% |
| Gausman | 0.262 | 2.69 | 0.346 | 5.16 | 0.241 | 0.694 | 0.273 | 3.92 | 0.236 | 0.01 | 21.7% |
| Hughes | 0.331 | 4.26 | 0.360 | 5.04 | 0.257 | 0.761 | 0.307 | 4.59 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 14.7% |
| Bauer | 0.318 | 4.33 | 0.313 | 4.89 | 0.247 | 0.747 | 0.280 | 4.34 | 0.233 | 0.01 | 22.9% |
| Devenski | 0.253 | 0.725 | |||||||||
| De La Rosa | 0.392 | 6.73 | 0.274 | 2.95 | 0.269 | 0.772 | 0.286 | 4.72 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 19.4% |
| Rusin | 0.368 | 5.68 | 0.360 | 4.88 | 0.260 | 0.750 | 0.339 | 4.42 | 0.304 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Leake | 0.318 | 4.43 | 0.287 | 3.64 | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.263 | 4.34 | 0.244 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Santiago | 0.277 | 2.57 | 0.323 | 3.94 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.253 | 4.72 | 0.226 | 0.01 | 20.8% |
| Degrom | 0.280 | 2.87 | 0.227 | 2.08 | 0.244 | 0.723 | 0.276 | 2.73 | 0.215 | 0.01 | 26.2% |
| Wood | 0.261 | 3.38 | 0.337 | 4.25 | 0.244 | 0.726 | 0.315 | 3.77 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 17.6% |
| Smyly | 0.251 | 1.69 | 0.287 | 3.39 | 0.259 | 0.730 | 0.256 | 3.58 | 0.206 | 0.02 | 29.3% |
| Miley | 0.295 | 3.98 | 0.333 | 4.67 | 0.260 | 0.761 | 0.310 | 3.84 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 17.7% |
| Happ | 0.293 | 2.32 | 0.309 | 3.74 | 0.272 | 0.723 | 0.306 | 3.54 | 0.257 | 0.01 | 20.1% |
| Cain | 0.399 | 7.42 | 0.378 | 5.63 | 0.260 | 0.775 | 0.322 | 5.46 | 0.302 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Rodon CHW (at TEX) – Outside of the ERA-destroying start of April 18, in which he coughed up five runs and seven baserunners to the Angels while generating just a single out, Rodon has been remarkably consistent. In each of his other five turns, the southpaw has thrown 6.0-to-7.0 innings and struck out 6-to-7 hitters. He’s also given up a home run in four out of his five starts. The ERA is a bit bloated at 4.36 this season, but consider that Rodon has been through a gauntlet of strong offenses recently as his last three starts have been against Boston, Baltimore and Texas. The previous start against the Rangers was one of his better turns of the year, giving up just two runs, two walks and two hits over 6.2 innings with seven punchouts.
Kevin Gausman BAL (at MIN) – Gausman got a late start to the season due to injury, but he has been cruising since he re-entered the fray. His 96.5 mph velocity from last season has already translated to the same averaged for 2016, but the difference is that the pitch has been very difficult to hit rather than a pitch that they seem to identify early in the flight path. He has continued to improve statistically over his first three turns, culminating in last start’s 8.0 shutout innings against the Yankees, with just three baserunners allowed (all hits) but also just four strikeouts. The pitch count has built each start so far on the season for Gausman, and he ought to pass the century mark with a solid performance today against the Twins.
Jose Berrios MIN (vs. BAL) – From Yesterday: Berrios is just not right mechanically, and though his stuff is electric and his ceiling is massive, the young right-hander is unlikely to flash his potential until he can display some command of the baseball. Everything he throws is missing targets badly to the arm-side, making life easy on opposing hitters as they can basically ignore the left side of the plate and wait for one of his right-side pitches to catch too much plate. The upside is tremendous and Berrios has a very bright future, but he is bench-worthy in DFS until he irons out the wrinkles in his own delivery.
Adam Conley MIA (vs. MIL) – Conley followed up his no-hit performance of two starts ago (over 7.2 innings) with 5.1 more frames of shutout baseball in his next turn, a solid response after getting pulled with four outs to go on a no-hitter. The 12.2 innings of zeroes on the scoreboard follow a two-start run of giving up four runs apiece, underscoring the lefty’s overall lack of consistency. His price tag might be inflated due to the scoreless string and his well-publicized run at a no-hitter.
Trevor Bauer CLE (at HOU) – Bauer has been predictably mediocre in his two turns since rejoining the pitching rotation. He gave up three earned runs in each turn, and each of the two games also featured a modest four strikeouts and two walks. The lack of pitch-count efficiency has limited him to just 9.2 innings over those two games despite throwing 184 pitches in total. The only reason that this matchup carries intrigue is that the Astros strike out a ton and Bauer has the ability to spike a big K count at any given time. Hopefully for those who roster Bauer today, the extra strikeout points will offset the extra runs that likely come attached to his performance profile.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. STL)
Chris Devenski HOU (vs. CLE)
Juan Nicasio PIT (at CIN)
Michael Fulmer DET (at WAS)
Sean Manaea OAK (at BOS)
Derek Holland TEX (vs. CHW) – It’s Holland’s first start since his season-altering dud, in which the southpaw gave up 11 runs to the Blue Jays. He was on a great run prior to the shellacking, at least in terms of run prevention, but the disaster start may have exposed some of the other warts. He has just 18 strikeouts against 11 walks this season in 31.2 innings, and the fact that Holland struck out just one batter in 6.0 innings of his zero-run performance of two starts ago paints his overall performance in a different light.
Alex Wood LAD (vs. NYM)
J.A. Happ TOR (at SF)
Cesar Vargas SD (at CHC)
Kris Medlen KC (at NYY)
Matt Wisler ATL (vs. PHI)
Wade Miley SEA (vs. TB)
Mike Leake STL (at LAA)
Adam Morgan PHI (at ATL)
Alfredo Simon CIN (vs. PIT)
Zach Davies MIL (at MIA)
Sean O’Sullivan BOS (vs. OAK)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Matt Cain SF (vs. TOR)
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (at COL)
Chris Rusin COL (vs. ARI)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window