Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, September 8th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-10 13:08:34

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Harvey	NYM	WAS	166.1	2.60	3.35	1.01		24.0%	5.2%	0.97	1.22
Zimmermann	WAS	NYM	372.2	2.99	3.48	1.14	52.6%	21.1%	4.1%	0.75	1.15
Gausman	BAL	NYY	195.2	4.00	3.99	1.29	37.5%	19.2%	7.0%	0.97	1.14
Tanaka	NYY	BAL	264.1	3.23	3.04	1.04	66.7%	24.3%	4.4%	1.23	1.48
Weber	ATL	PHI
Nola	PHI	ATL	53.2	4.02	3.94	1.16		19.9%	6.3%	1.34	1.22
Ramirez	TBR	DET	206.2	4.35	4.27	1.30	27.3%	18.0%	8.1%	1.18	1.19
Boyd	DET	TBR	37.2	8.36	4.93	1.83		14.9%	6.9%	2.87	0.67
Dickey	TOR	BOS	398.1	3.89	4.38	1.24	47.6%	17.0%	7.8%	1.08	1.13
Owens	BOS	TOR	30.2	5.87	4.46	1.50		21.5%	9.6%	1.76	0.55
Liriano	PIT	CIN	321	3.39	3.55	1.25	12.5%	25.5%	10.6%	0.73	1.96
Iglesias	CIN	PIT	87.1	3.81	3.20	1.10		27.1%	7.3%	1.03	1.43
Jungmann	MIL	MIA	96.2	2.42	3.94	1.15		21.9%	8.7%	0.28	1.40
Conley	MIA	MIL	37.2	5.02	4.24	1.43		19.1%	8.6%	1.19	1.20
Carrasco	CLE	CHW	292	3.08	2.72	1.02		27.1%	5.3%	0.65	1.77
Rodon	CHW	CLE	118.2	4.10	4.16	1.50		23.6%	12.3%	0.83	1.72
Gibson	MIN	KCR	343.1	4.17	4.21	1.31	52.6%	15.3%	7.7%	0.73	2.01
Volquez	KCR	MIN	361	3.27	4.28	1.26	50.0%	17.6%	8.6%	0.72	1.48
Hammel	CHC	STL	323.1	3.51	3.44	1.12	47.4%	23.2%	5.8%	1.20	0.99
Wacha	STL	CHC	264.1	2.89	3.77	1.15	53.3%	20.8%	6.7%	0.61	1.27
Hudson	SFG	ARI	293	3.96	3.86	1.29	68.4%	14.2%	4.9%	0.86	2.17
Anderson	ARI	SFG	253.2	4.15	4.07	1.34	40.0%	18.6%	6.9%	1.10	1.23
Kershaw	LAD	LAA	392.1	1.97	2.14	0.88	66.7%	32.8%	4.4%	0.50	1.82
Heaney	LAA	LAD	108.2	3.89	4.11	1.18	25.0%	16.9%	4.7%	1.08	1.05
Kazmir	HOU	OAK	348.2	3.07	3.72	1.14	63.2%	21.5%	7.0%	0.72	1.20
Gray	OAK	HOU	405.2	2.75	3.58	1.10	60.0%	20.5%	7.4%	0.64	2.00
Gray	COL	SDP	26.1	6.15	4.26	1.67		17.4%	7.4%	0.68	1.52
Rea	SDP	COL	24.2	5.47	3.78	1.42		20.4%	7.4%	0.73	2.00
Hamels	TEX	SEA	375	3.02	3.34	1.18	58.8%	24.5%	7.3%	0.74	1.51
Walker	SEA	TEX	197.2	4.14	3.76	1.22		22.0%	7.0%	1.09	1.09

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (at LAA) – Kersh has reserved the best parking spot in the lot and is unlikely to relinquish it, having worked most of the season to get back what many feel is rightfully his. The southpaw is on a devastating run that has re-established his dominance, with a 0.93 ERA and 111 strikeouts against just nine walks in his last 11 games started, covering 87.0 innings of ace-defining performance. He has given up just two homers over that stretch, has a half-dozen games with double-digit strikeouts, and ha given up more than a lone run just once in his last 11 turns. He’ll likely hold the top spot in the rankings for the rest of the regular season, but history tells us that all bets are off for the postseason.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at CHW) – Carrasco is making his first start off of the disabled list after experiencing some shoulder discomfort that knocked him out for a few days more than the minimum DL stay. He has been inconsistent this season, including five games of five more earned runs allowed in 25 turns this season, but he was just finding his groove prior to hitting the disabled list, with a 1.36 ERA over his last five starts, including 40 strikeouts and only a half-dozen walks in 39.7 frames, finishing it off with an 11-K masterpiece versus the Bronx Bombers in his last start before being shelved. The Pale Hose offer a much weaker landing spot, providing a potential buffer in case Carrasco has to shake off some rust.

Matt Harvey NYM (at WAS) – His innings-count has received much of the attention over the last week, as the Mets make their push for the playoffs with possibly the best starting rotation in the National League but one comprised of young arms, some of whim are coming off of injury (Harvey being the most volatile). The Mets have not publicly stated how they are going to handle Harvey’s workload down the stretch, and the experience of Stephen Strasburg a couple of years ago has already primed the townsfolk to sharpen their pitchforks in case Harvey’s innings are compromised. One wonders if he will see lighter fare down the stretch in order to accommodate injury concerns, as in the modern world perception has decided that a dozen innings can be the difference between a future trip under the knife and long-term health; any easing on the gas pedal by the Mets will have a ripple effect on Harvey’s DFS value, so this is a situation worth monitoring no matter where you fall in the debate on pitcher workloads and playoff baseball.

Sonny Gray OAK (vs. HOU) – Gray is an All-In candidate at peak but been a little bit off lately, coming off of his worst start of the year in terms of run prevention (six earned runs over 5.0 innings) and his strikeouts have been down for the last month, with only 21 punchouts in 34.0 innings over his last five starts. The Astros are a K-prone club but are a much tougher opponent today than when the schedule was originally drawn, though Gray has had no problem handling the young upstarts, tossing a complete game the last time that he faced them (back on August 7th) while allowing only one run and five baserunners in the contest. He has given up a number of unearned runs recently, resulting in an unsightly average of 4.76 runs allowed per nine innings over those five turns.

Cole Hamels TEX (at SEA) – Hamels has been wildly volatile over the past couple of months, at one moment throwing a no-hitter with 13 strikeouts and the next getting tagged for five earned runs. He has gradually settled his way into his new digs with the Rangers, and Hamels has thrown six or more innings in each of his first six turns with the ballclub, including 18 strikeouts over 15.0 innings over his last two starts. He faces a Mariners club that has been crushing baseballs since the All Star break, and the daunting task faced by Hamels this evening is personified by Seattle’s .384 wOBA and 900 OPS over the last seven days. Hamels takes Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano down a peg thanks to his having the platoon advantage, but his handedness could very well get him into trouble against the most dangerous bat in the Seattle lineup, Nelson Cruz.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. CHC) – Wacha has been the Quality Start master recently, earning the QS in his last seven straight turns and posting a 0.92 ERA over his last half-dozen outings (though his RAA is twice that amount, as half of his runs allowed have been unearned). He has also stepped up the strikeout pace recently, with 35 K’s against 11 walks in his last 39.0 innings, and tonight’s matchup with the whiff-heavy Cubbies will only increase the odds of a high-punchout outing. The likelihood of more strikeouts fails to counterbalance the heat coming from the Cubs’ lumber lately, as the team has a .3721 wOBA and 867 OPS over the last seven days (with a whopping 27.5-percent K rate).

Scott Kazmir HOU (at OAK) – Kazmir was the apple of every DFS manager’s eye back in July, but he was more hittable during the dog days and has surrendered three or more runs in three of his past four starts. He lasted just 4.3 innings in his last turn, succumbing to the will of the second-half Mariners, and he has cleared the quality-start benchmark of 6.0 innings pitched just twice in his last six starts. The upside is low but consistency is supposed to be Kazmir’s strong suit, so perhaps he gets back on track tonight against his former ballclub, but just as he might have a perceived advantage due to in-depth knowledge of Oakland hitters, the A’s will enjoy a similar edge of familiarity in preparing for tonight’s ballgame.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Harvey	0.301	3.42	0.236	1.81	0.252	0.728	0.261	3.33	0.216	98.36	24.0%
Zimmermann	0.313	3.31	0.264	2.69	0.245	0.703	0.304	3.11	0.251	92.95	21.1%
Gausman	0.306	3.25	0.325	4.98	0.251	0.744	0.296	3.85	0.254	82.93	19.2%
Tanaka	0.281	3.11	0.300	3.37	0.253	0.742	0.272	3.55	0.229	97.75	24.3%
Weber					0.251	0.685
Nola	0.343	4.95	0.279	3.48	0.255	0.679	0.261	4.33	0.234	88.33	19.9%
Ramirez	0.295	3.71	0.353	5.24	0.267	0.737	0.279	4.56	0.248	70.76	18.0%
Boyd	0.496	11.45	0.422	7.09	0.264	0.767	0.363	6.94	0.352	76.89	14.9%
Dickey	0.306	3.36	0.322	4.33	0.265	0.737	0.265	4.44	0.239	102.45	17.0%
Owens	0.465	12.60	0.329	4.56	0.283	0.832	0.310	5.07	0.27	90.50	21.5%
Liriano	0.300	3.96	0.283	3.25	0.251	0.736	0.282	3.45	0.217	95.04	25.5%
Iglesias	0.335	5.15	0.253	2.84	0.261	0.722	0.275	3.54	0.215	88.50	27.1%
Jungmann	0.275	1.57	0.274	3.20	0.251	0.669	0.281	3.04	0.219	98.81	21.9%
Conley	0.407	2.70	0.333	5.52	0.232	0.673	0.318	4.50	0.274	64.20	19.1%
Carrasco	0.252	2.85	0.274	3.29	0.256	0.705	0.289	2.64	0.219	66.38	27.1%
Rodon	0.229	3.38	0.367	4.39	0.261	0.714	0.324	4.02	0.252	92.83	23.6%
Gibson	0.304	3.84	0.309	4.53	0.272	0.746	0.286	3.95	0.253	95.60	15.3%
Volquez	0.306	3.15	0.297	3.36	0.243	0.693	0.274	3.96	0.236	95.28	17.6%
Hammel	0.300	2.88	0.301	4.01	0.263	0.730	0.276	3.80	0.233	91.46	23.2%
Wacha	0.265	2.89	0.292	2.90	0.242	0.723	0.278	3.23	0.229	94.64	20.8%
Hudson	0.338	3.55	0.304	4.33	0.265	0.735	0.304	3.92	0.275	86.90	14.2%
Anderson	0.320	3.81	0.343	4.43	0.267	0.737	0.309	4.14	0.268	91.73	18.6%
Kershaw	0.229	1.81	0.236	2.02	0.230	0.657	0.282	1.92	0.196	102.94	32.8%
Heaney	0.243	1.93	0.336	4.74	0.268	0.765	0.283	4.10	0.254	83.20	16.9%
Kazmir	0.303	3.18	0.276	3.04	0.256	0.701	0.277	3.36	0.228	94.81	21.5%
Gray	0.270	2.37	0.264	3.19	0.244	0.729	0.262	3.38	0.218	100.17	20.5%
Gray	0.336	3.65	0.385	8.36	0.246	0.692	0.375	3.67	0.315	72.33	17.4%
Rea	0.320	5.74	0.374	5.00	0.274	0.783	0.333	3.51	0.273	85.80	20.4%
Hamels	0.293	2.04	0.289	3.29	0.262	0.723	0.298	3.21	0.234	104.52	24.5%
Walker	0.307	3.58	0.307	4.86	0.260	0.737	0.29	3.92	0.243	88.57	22.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Francisco Liriano PIT (at CIN) – Liriano typically finds himself well-ensconced by the Raise group of hurlers, and the Reds would seem like an opportune target for the southpaw given lefty sluggers like Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in the lineup, but Cincy has actually hit lefties better this season and Liriano has been off his game for over a month now. He has a 5.29 ERA over his last six starts with 28 strikeouts yet 20 walks given away in 32.0 innings of work, and is per-start K count has been capped at five whiffs during that span. Liriano faced the division-rival Reds in his first start of the season, giving up two earnies over 7.0 frames, but the unbalanced schedule has kept them off the menu for the left-hander until now.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (vs. BAL) – His performance has clearly taken a step backward from last season’s assertion of his authority, but Tanaka’s has accomplished this season is remarkable in it’s own way, given that he is pitching with a known injury yet refuses to use that as an excuse, making start after start with disappointing (in a vacuum) results that would be considered pretty solid by most other pitchers. He has given up at least three runs in 10 of his last 13 starts yet has stayed in the game long enough to clear the Quality Start threshold in 11 straight turns, earning the QS in nine of those 11 games.

Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. CLE) – Rodon has previously been referred to as the ultimate GPP play, but now he’s making a case as a legit option for cash games as well. The rookie left-hander has spun five consecutive quality starts, but that fact alone undermines the fact that he hasn’t surrendered more than two earned runs in any of those five games and has given up just 22 hits in 34.0 innings over that stretch. The K count can still follow a boom or bust pattern, giving him that GPP upside, but he has calmed down the walks to a relatively stable level over the past month to make him a more viable play in all formats.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. TEX) – If Rodon is a great GPP play, then the he and Walker form the ultimate tandem of high-risk, high-reward pitchers, forming a potentially deadly combo for a very reasonable price in those formats that offer two starting pitchers. There might only be a 15-to-20-percent chance that both of these pitchers go off, but they both have the upside to spike 30 or more points on DraftKings and have earned your consideration on a day when both hurlers are facing non-elite opponents. Walker was highly volatile at the start of the season but has recently stabilized his performance, tossing 5.7 or more innings in eight straight starts and giving up three or fewer earned runs in all but one of those games.

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. NYM) – The Mets have been absolutely on fire recently, scoring 6.0 runs per game ver their last eight contests and putting the new charges to good use. Yoenis Cespedes is leading the charge, hitting homers in five of his last six games to push his tater tally over 30 bombs for the season. For his part, Zimmermann has been very hit or miss over the past month, as four of his six starts have featured exactly one run allowed yet the other two included 10 runs over 11.7 innings pitched. He gave up five runs to the Mets in his first start after the deadline in what may have been a precusor to the final two months of the season.

Aaron Nola PHI (vs. ATL) – Atlanta has the lowest team wOBA in the game at .294, and they have secured that place with some truly anemic play over the last seven days, with a lowly .238 wOBA and 508 OPS in that brief stretch. Nola is coming off of his roughest start in the majors, having surrendered six runs to the Mets in just 4.0 frames, but today’s start should offer a reprieve for a pitcher who goes from facing the red-hot Amazin’s to the ice-cold Braves.

Andrew Heaney LAA (vs. LAD)

Taylor Jungmann MIL (at MIA)

Jason Hammel CHC (at STL)

Edinson Volquez KC (vs. MIN)

Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. PIT)

Kevin Gausman BAL (at NYY)

Jon Gray COL (at SD)

Chase Anderson ARI (vs. SF)

Tim Hudson SF (at ARI)

Kyle Gibson MIN (at KC)

Colin Rea SD (vs. COL)

Erasmo Ramirez TB (at DET)