Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, July 6th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-07-07 02:45:28

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Fulmer	DET	CLE	70.2	2.17	3.88	1.09	0.0%	24.40%	8.7%	0.76	1.54
Tomlin	CLE	DET	161.0	3.13	3.94	0.99	23.1%	18.90%	2.8%	1.79	0.97
Jenkins	ATL	PHI
Hellickson	PHI	ATL	245.2	4.40	4.05	1.28	0.0%	20.20%	6.5%	1.39	1.20
Nicolino	MIA	NYM	134.2	4.61	5.41	1.38	0.0%	9.00%	6.2%	0.94	1.26
deGrom	NYM	MIA	277.0	2.57	3.17	1.02	50.0%	26.30%	5.3%	0.75	1.37
Gray	OAK	MIN	292.2	3.51	3.96	1.19	60.0%	19.60%	7.4%	0.89	1.79
Santana	MIN	OAK	192.0	4.22	4.55	1.34	38.9%	17.40%	7.6%	1.08	1.13
DeSclafani	CIN	CHC	215.0	3.73	4.14	1.34	20.0%	19.10%	7.0%	0.80	1.30
Warren	CHC	CIN	157.0	3.50	4.15	1.20	0.0%	18.90%	8.2%	0.80	1.37
Gausman	BAL	LAD	194.0	4.13	3.75	1.25	37.5%	21.90%	5.8%	1.44	1.20
Norris	LAD	BAL	159.1	5.37	4.16	1.44	26.7%	19.90%	8.6%	1.19	1.45
Garza	MIL	WAS	170.1	5.39	4.70	1.58	35.0%	15.40%	8.3%	1.22	1.41
Roark	WAS	MIL	218.1	3.67	4.04	1.27	52.6%	17.90%	6.6%	0.99	1.79
Kennedy	KCR	TOR	262.0	4.19	3.79	1.27	47.6%	24.20%	7.6%	1.75	0.87
Stroman	TOR	KCR	135.0	4.40	3.87	1.30	66.7%	16.80%	6.7%	0.80	2.98
Weaver	LAA	TBR	253.2	4.97	5.08	1.32	52.4%	13.30%	5.5%	1.56	0.70
Smyly	TBR	LAA	163.0	4.42	3.42	1.22	50.0%	27.20%	6.5%	1.66	0.74
Perez	TEX	BOS	182.1	3.85	4.75	1.39	37.5%	12.80%	8.8%	0.64	2.33
Wright	BOS	TEX	180.2	3.09	4.57	1.23	0.0%	18.40%	9.1%	0.90	1.22
Pineda	NYY	CWS	250.0	4.68	3.17	1.28	75.0%	24.90%	4.2%	1.30	1.48
Gonzalez	CWS	NYY	207.1	4.91	4.61	1.41	40.0%	17.50%	8.6%	1.35	1.14
LeBlanc	SEA	HOU	12.0	1.50	4.24	0.67	0.0%	18.60%	4.7%	0.75	1.00
Fiers	HOU	SEA	270.0	3.83	4.06	1.28	0.0%	21.00%	7.3%	1.23	1.05
Locke	PIT	STL	263.0	4.72	4.54	1.40	66.7%	15.60%	8.0%	0.96	1.75
Garcia	STL	PIT	225.2	3.03	3.64	1.17	28.6%	19.30%	6.8%	0.56	2.66
Rea	SDP	ARI	114.1	4.64	4.54	1.35	0.0%	18.50%	9.1%	0.79	1.50
Miller	ARI	SDP	269.2	3.94	4.46	1.37	21.1%	18.70%	9.2%	0.83	1.36
De La Rosa	COL	SFG	204.2	4.66	4.21	1.42	40.0%	21.10%	10.5%	1.23	1.84
Cueto	SFG	COL	334.1	3.12	3.73	1.09	76.2%	21.00%	5.1%	0.73	1.39

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. MIA) – deGrom pitched just 5.0 frames in his last turn, halting a six-game run of quality starts that included a 2.25 ERA and a whopping 47 strikeouts against eight walks in 40.0 innings. He’s only given up more than three runs once this season in 14 turns, and that was a four-run start back in May. He has walked one or zero batters in each of his last five starts, has whiffed a half-dozen batters or more in seven straight, and has walked more than three batters just once this season. Prior to that run, deGrom struggled in the strikeout department with five straight games of five or fewer Ks, but the longevity of his recent uptick in strikeouts gives the image of stability to go with his upside.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Johnny Cueto SF (vs. COL) – Cueto is a borderline All-In candidate on a game-by-game basis, but a recent rough patch has lit the fires of pessimism regarding his performance today against the Rockies. He gave up four runs against Arizona in his last start, off-setting the tallies with nine strikeouts, but in the previous turn Cueto surrendered six runs to the Phillies with just two Ks. It was his third game this season with six runs allowed, but between the Philly start and his previous six-run blowup, Cueto had a 1.07 ERA across eight starts and 67 innings pitched. He’s not a strikeout aficionado, but Cueto consistently limits the runs, hits and walks against him, and he is one of the best options available on a day where high-end pitchers are few and far between.

Michael Fulmer DET (at CLE) – it’s a very thin slate at the top end of the pitcher pool today, vaulting Fulmer into the Raise category and leaving him all by himself with few appealing alternatives for DFS gamers. Then again, Fulmer would have likely cleared the Raise threshold regardless of the shape of the slate. He has been absolutely unstoppable since mid-May; in his last eight starts, Fulmer has a ridiculous ERA of 0.53 with 48 strikeouts against 16 walks and a minuscule total of 23 hits through 51.1 innings of work. He struck out 10 batters against the Rays in his last start, with just two hits and one walk allowed over seven full frames. He’s only struck out more than eight batters in a game twice this season, and both games involved double-digit Ks against Tampa Bay.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Fulmer	0.244	1.10	0.287	3.08	0.254	0.737	0.253	3.52	0.202	0.02	24.4%
Tomlin	0.255	2.58	0.329	3.59	0.270	0.746	0.235	4.64	0.229	0.01	18.9%
Jenkins					0.244	0.684
Hellickson	0.353	4.47	0.318	4.35	0.252	0.676	0.290	4.39	0.255	0.00	20.2%
Nicolino	0.299	5.23	0.351	4.43	0.241	0.713	0.296	4.63	0.286	0.00	9.0%
deGrom	0.280	3.02	0.235	2.08	0.262	0.701	0.278	2.81	0.216	0.01	26.3%
Gray	0.274	2.74	0.300	4.28	0.243	0.699	0.272	3.77	0.233	0.00	19.6%
Santana	0.330	4.50	0.317	3.94	0.250	0.701	0.296	4.26	0.262	0.01	17.4%
DeSclafani	0.341	4.51	0.297	2.84	0.247	0.740	0.318	3.67	0.267	0.01	19.1%
Warren	0.275	3.16	0.300	3.72	0.245	0.702	0.272	3.89	0.232	0.00	18.9%
Gausman	0.277	2.97	0.360	5.29	0.244	0.723	0.295	4.18	0.255	0.01	21.9%
Norris	0.374	5.63	0.314	5.12	0.262	0.775	0.316	4.38	0.269	0.00	19.9%
Garza	0.364	5.14	0.351	5.63	0.246	0.718	0.326	4.69	0.293	0.00	15.4%
Roark	0.319	3.11	0.305	4.18	0.255	0.713	0.296	4.05	0.259	0.00	17.9%
Kennedy	0.345	4.40	0.331	3.99	0.259	0.782	0.286	4.76	0.246	0.01	24.2%
Stroman	0.322	4.93	0.304	3.77	0.269	0.732	0.302	3.84	0.263	0.01	16.8%
Weaver	0.343	4.61	0.346	5.30	0.241	0.702	0.284	5.14	0.275	0.00	13.3%
Smyly	0.279	4.11	0.330	4.50	0.243	0.696	0.299	4.14	0.245	0.01	27.2%
Perez	0.229	1.36	0.338	4.54	0.272	0.758	0.294	4.18	0.266	0.00	12.8%
Wright	0.272	2.97	0.305	3.18	0.258	0.739	0.258	4.17	0.225	0.01	18.4%
Pineda	0.329	4.47	0.334	4.85	0.250	0.703	0.339	3.52	0.274	0.01	24.9%
Gonzalez	0.346	4.44	0.335	5.32	0.248	0.730	0.299	4.85	0.268	0.00	17.5%
LeBlanc					0.243	0.743	0.156	3.41	0.146	0.09	18.6%
Fiers	0.296	3.47	0.337	4.15	0.250	0.741	0.292	4.20	0.25	0.00	21.0%
Locke	0.326	5.21	0.326	4.56	0.233	0.677	0.299	4.30	0.267	0.00	15.6%
Garcia	0.288	3.06	0.274	3.02	0.255	0.713	0.285	3.29	0.237	0.01	19.3%
Rea	0.311	4.36	0.316	5.03	0.265	0.740	0.289	4.07	0.245	0.01	18.5%
Miller	0.344	4.14	0.283	3.74	0.239	0.679	0.297	4.00	0.252	0.00	18.7%
De La Rosa	0.304	5.40	0.348	4.64	0.266	0.720	0.297	4.56	0.251	0.01	21.1%
Cueto	0.272	2.65	0.292	3.52	0.272	0.784	0.281	3.25	0.234	0.00	21.0%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Sonny Gray OAK (at MIN) – There Is a vast swath of pitchers on the Call list today, half of whom make for very intriguing options given upside but whose downside risk is too great to consider raising. Gray is a good example, as his K counts are too low for especially high scores and he has struggled through the past several weeks, but the right-hander has a strong history of run prevention and has recently righted the ship of performance. Kind words aside, there is an added layer of pessimism given that Gray is coming off a seven-run start against the Pirates and has not struck out more than seven batters in any game this season.

Josh Tomlin CLE (vs. DET) – Tomlin has been surprisingly effective this season. He doesn’t get enough credit, considering that he now has amassed 161 innings over the past two season with a combined ERA of 3.13 and a minuscule 0.99 WHIP. He doesn’t strike out that many batters but walks far fewer, allowing Tomlin to compile a ridiculously low WHIP in nearly a full season’s compliment of innings pitched. The biggest issue is the longball, as Tomlin has coughed up 32 homers in his 25 starts over the past two seasons.

Kevin Gausman BAL (at LAD) – The right-hander has been more effective in his last couple games than he was in the pair of starts prior, as he finally emerged from a brutal stretch of opponents (Toronto, Boston, Texas) to put up back-to-back starts of solid performance. His last two games have both resulted in solid fantasy starts, besting the lighter fare of Seattle and Tampa Bay with 13.2 innings and three runs allowed, collected with 14 strikeouts and zero walks. His performance has been tied closely to the quality of Gausman’s opponent, leaving today’s start as a roll of the dice given the Dodgers inconsistent offense this season.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. PIT) – Garcia is coming off his best start of the season, an eight-inning shutdown of the Brewers that included four hits but four walks, resulting in one run allowed. The southpaw was getting hit up prior to that start, giving up 59 hits in 37.2 innings with a 5.73 ERA across seven games. He has been erratic this season, occasionally spiking big strikeout totals – ok, it was start of 13 Ks and the next highest K count is just eight – and he is more likely to get trounced than it is that he will have an impressive start.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (vs. ATL) – The biggest risk for Hellickson on a game-by-game basis is his penchant for giving up homers, so today’s matchup with the Braves could be just what the doctor ordered to heal his overall pitching line. Atlanta doesn’t strike out much against right-handed pitchers, but they don’t score much either, and Hellickson could spike a big start against his weak opponent in today’s game.

Tanner Roark WAS (vs. MIL) – His strikeouts are up this season, though still not an asset, and Roark has exemplified his staying power by tossing 7.0 or more innings in three consecutive starts, four of the last five and six of the past eight turns. The Brewers might help to give him an extra couple of Ks, as they did two starts ago when Roark struck out seven Brewers over seven shutout frames with seven hits and one walk allowed.

Drew Smyly TB (vs. LAA) – It’s impossible to trust Smyly these days. His strikeouts are really piling up, including 38 strikeouts in his 30.1 June innings, but the run-scoring has been out of hand. The southpaw has given up four or more runs in six of his last seven starts, a stretch that has entailed a 7.81 ERA in 40.1 innings, and his vulnerability to home runs (19 this season) means that even a good start can turn bad in a hurry.

Steven Wright BOS (vs. TEX) – A knuckleballer against one of the top offenses in the game sounds like a recipe for disaster, but Wright has been able to float his butterfly against multiple top offenses this season and could pull the trick again today against the Rangers.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. KC)

Michael Pineda NYY (at CHW)

Ian Kennedy KC (at TOR)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (at CHC)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at NYM)

Wade LeBlanc SEA (at HOU)

Matt Garza MIL (at WAS)

Jered Weaver LAA (at TB)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. SEA)

Shelby Miller ARI (vs. SD)

Martin Perez TEX (at BOS)

Adam Warren CHC (vs. CIN)