Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 1st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-06-02 02:07:25

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Gonzalez	CWS	NYM	172.2	4.85	4.48	1.42	40.0%	17.8%	8.1%	1.46	1.15
deGrom	NYM	CWS	239	2.60	3.24	1.02	50.0%	25.5%	5.5%	0.72	1.30
Garcia	STL	MIL	189.1	2.76	3.41	1.09	28.6%	20.1%	6.7%	0.43	2.85
Davies	MIL	STL	75.2	4.64	4.52	1.36		16.5%	9.4%	1.07	1.95
Dean	MIN	OAK	21	3.43	3.55	1.24		23.3%	5.8%	1.29	0.92
Manaea	OAK	MIN	32	7.03	4.85	1.56		14.7%	7.0%	1.41	1.02
Hamels	TEX	CLE	274.1	3.58	3.47	1.22	58.8%	24.6%	7.4%	1.12	1.61
Bauer	CLE	TEX	221.2	4.51	4.20	1.33	38.5%	22.4%	10.3%	1.14	1.06
Kelly	BOS	BAL	154.1	5.02	4.25	1.52	40.0%	19.8%	9.5%	1.11	1.63
Wright	BAL	BOS	91	5.54	4.92	1.48		14.9%	8.4%	1.38	1.04
Fulmer	DET	LAA	34	3.97	3.50	1.38		24.7%	7.5%	1.32	1.72
Shoemaker	LAA	DET	180.2	4.83	3.95	1.30	44.4%	20.9%	6.2%	1.54	0.93
Scherzer	WAS	PHI	302	3.10	2.73	0.96	60.0%	30.7%	4.7%	1.25	0.79
Morgan	PHI	WAS	114	5.05	4.97	1.32		13.8%	5.6%	1.50	0.68
Tanaka	NYY	TOR	219.1	3.32	3.39	0.98	66.7%	22.3%	4.5%	1.27	1.56
Sanchez	TOR	NYY	158	3.25	4.06	1.25		18.3%	10.3%	0.74	2.95
Niese	PIT	MIA	235.2	4.20	4.29	1.40	41.2%	15.0%	7.2%	1.22	2.12
Conley	MIA	PIT	119	3.93	4.20	1.37		20.9%	8.8%	0.76	1.05
Suarez	SFG	ATL	12	2.25	4.12	1.00		12.8%	4.3%	0.00	1.70
Perez	ATL	SFG	155.1	4.52	4.81	1.45		13.7%	9.4%	0.87	1.91
Bolsinger	LAD	CHC	119.1	3.70	4.09	1.36	33.3%	20.9%	9.5%	0.98	1.69
Lester	CHC	LAD	266.2	3.14	3.30	1.12	65.0%	24.8%	6.0%	0.74	1.55
Ray	ARI	HOU	179.2	3.86	4.03	1.43	33.3%	22.7%	9.5%	0.85	1.32
Fiers	HOU	ARI	235.2	4.05	3.91	1.28		21.9%	7.3%	1.30	1.03
Archer	TBR	KCR	272.1	3.54	3.24	1.22	55.0%	28.5%	8.4%	1.02	1.37
Duffy	KCR	TBR	167.1	3.93	4.33	1.34	57.1%	19.1%	8.4%	0.97	1.01
Lamb	CIN	COL	73.1	6.14	4.21	1.64		21.6%	9.3%	1.60	0.96
Chatwood	COL	CIN	63.2	2.69	4.06	1.15	25.0%	15.2%	6.2%	0.85	2.29
Hernandez	SEA	SDP	264.2	3.37	3.59	1.19	81.0%	22.3%	7.7%	0.99	2.06
Friedrich	SDP	SEA	74.2	4.46	4.47	1.65		16.4%	10.2%	0.60	1.60

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (at PHI) – Scherzer has been the crusher of fantasy dreams in DFS this season. His epic 20-K game immediately followed a seven-run start, effectively thinning out his ownership for the big one. Home runs are a major problem, as they were last season but this time it’s even more dire, as Scherzer has coughed up 15 home runs in 11 starts this season, including 10 homers allowed in his last five ballgames. He is also coming off a rocky turn against the Cardinals, with five runs and four walks allowed over 7.0 innings, and has given up multiple runs in five consecutive starts. On the bright side, he has pitched 6.0 or more innings six of his last seven starts and the strikeout-related upside is immense. The immense upside and the fact that he’s facing the Phillies effectively pushes Scherzer into the top spot on today’s rankings – he struck out seven batters while giving up one run and six baserunners over 7.0 frames when he faced the Phils on April 16, and will look for a repeat performance tonight.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jon Lester CHC (vs. LAD) – Through 10 starts this season, Lester has been rock-solid in nine, but the lone exception came two turns ago versus the Giants, with five earned runs and nine baserunners across 2.2 innings pitched. He had given up one or zero earned runs in seven of his other nine starts, with the two outliers both being three-run starts, and outside of the Giant disaster he has walked two or fewer batters in each game. The strikeouts have been inconsistent but have the upside to make an impact, as Lester has punched out nine or more batters three times this season, yet has finished with a K-count under six in a half-dozen other turns.

Editor’s Note: Felix Hernandez scratched; James Paxton to start in his place.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at SD) – His smoke-and-mirrors act is wearing thin these days, and King Felix book-ended the month of May with an eight-run game against Oakland at the start, punctuated by six runs over six innings against the Twins in his last turn. The walks are way up while the strikeouts and velocity are way down, a combination that made his low ERA look like a mirage for much of the season, though the Minnesota game started to bring the run-prevention more in line with his peripheral stats. Tonight he gets to face a Padres team that is great for buffering pitcher stat-lines, such that his uncanny ability to dance between the raindrops will be aided by a marine layer in tonight’s game.

Cole Hamels TEX (at CLE) – The left-hander’s 3.3 BB/9 is by far the highest rate that he has had since his rookie season (also 3.3 BB/9), as the lowest full-season mark of the past 10 years has been a still-below-average 2.7 BB/9. Baseballs are also leaving the yard at a higher rate than ever before, with 12 homers allowed in 62.0 innings, or 1.7 HR/9, for a pitcher who hasn’t given up more than 1.1 HR/9 since 2007. The combination of elevated walks and homers should spell disaster for his run prevention, but Hamels is cruising along with a 3.34 ERA and a won-loss record of 5-1, mostly thanks to fortunate order of events, as 10 of his 12 homers allowed this season have come with the bases empty. His one loss was in his most recent turn, with six runs (five earned) over 4.2 frames against the Pirates, a game that included two home runs and two HBPs allowed.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. CHW) – The right-hander is preventing runs at nearly the same rate as the last two seasons, but his strikeouts have mysteriously disappeared. After two consecutive season of whiffing more than a batter per inning, deGrom has just 37 punchouts in 48.0 innings (6.9 K/9) this season. His control has also been a bit haywire lately, walking three batters in each of his last three starts after walking five total batters over his first five turns. Th Mets have lengthened the leash to let deGrom reach the 100-pitch mark in each of his last four games, but his 3.55 ERA and 21:9 K:BB in 25.1 innings over that stretch is hardly an endorsement. On the bright side, his velocity is starting to tick back up after taking a backseat for much of the season, as his last two games have featured the fastest pitch-speeds of the year, but even at his best velo of 2016 he pales in comparison to the heat that deGrom brought to the table on a regular basis last season.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Gonzalez	0.359	4.98	0.331	4.73	0.242	0.714	0.302	4.93	0.271	0.01	17.8%
deGrom	0.291	3.15	0.222	2.02	0.250	0.697	0.274	2.83	0.215	0.01	25.5%
Garcia	0.268	2.90	0.258	2.72	0.235	0.687	0.272	3.03	0.222	0.01	20.1%
Davies	0.340	3.69	0.323	5.32	0.264	0.756	0.282	4.53	0.253	0.01	16.5%
Dean			0.332	3.18	0.250	0.703	0.310	3.78	0.259	0.06	23.3%
Manaea			0.411	8.03	0.252	0.710	0.330	4.86	0.303	0.00	14.7%
Hamels	0.280	1.96	0.309	4.02	0.265	0.730	0.294	3.79	0.238	0.01	24.6%
Bauer	0.314	4.14	0.318	4.86	0.258	0.737	0.284	4.30	0.236	0.01	22.4%
Kelly	0.316	3.76	0.371	6.26	0.257	0.759	0.326	4.39	0.275	0.00	19.8%
Wright	0.401	5.40	0.326	5.65	0.271	0.763	0.304	5.22	0.281	0.00	14.9%
Fulmer	0.265	1.59	0.387	6.35	0.253	0.714	0.333	3.96	0.269	0.04	24.7%
Shoemaker	0.314	5.44	0.342	4.12	0.268	0.740	0.295	4.44	0.26	0.01	20.9%
Scherzer	0.315	3.53	0.224	2.68	0.243	0.676	0.266	3.14	0.207	0.01	30.7%
Morgan	0.291	4.10	0.356	5.34	0.266	0.771	0.284	4.96	0.272	0.00	13.8%
Tanaka	0.280	3.57	0.275	3.10	0.259	0.776	0.243	3.77	0.214	0.01	22.3%
Sanchez	0.346	3.63	0.227	2.86	0.244	0.729	0.262	4.04	0.225	0.00	18.3%
Niese	0.341	3.16	0.342	4.49	0.275	0.738	0.298	4.68	0.273	0.00	15.0%
Conley	0.386	6.86	0.303	3.35	0.257	0.716	0.317	3.75	0.258	0.01	20.9%
Suarez					0.253	0.674	0.270	3.11	0.233	0.03	12.8%
Perez	0.356	5.03	0.309	3.99	0.263	0.738	0.300	4.61	0.272	0.00	13.7%
Bolsinger	0.342	2.25	0.289	4.67	0.250	0.742	0.297	4.00	0.248	0.01	20.9%
Lester	0.290	3.28	0.284	3.10	0.256	0.738	0.297	3.02	0.234	0.01	24.8%
Ray	0.309	3.04	0.338	4.18	0.244	0.743	0.326	3.78	0.259	0.01	22.7%
Fiers	0.292	3.46	0.341	4.60	0.266	0.744	0.292	4.17	0.249	0.01	21.9%
Archer	0.274	3.40	0.306	3.69	0.269	0.737	0.301	3.31	0.228	0.01	28.5%
Duffy	0.249	1.95	0.338	4.49	0.261	0.768	0.299	4.16	0.255	0.00	19.1%
Lamb	0.441	8.04	0.361	5.62	0.258	0.708	0.353	4.82	0.297	0.00	21.6%
Chatwood	0.243	1.99	0.333	3.38	0.244	0.697	0.262	3.91	0.238	0.02	15.2%
Hernandez	0.303	3.91	0.290	2.79	0.239	0.674	0.280	3.81	0.232	0.01	22.3%
Friedrich	0.292	3.16	0.366	5.40	0.259	0.731	0.339	3.95	0.288	0.00	16.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Chris Archer TB (at KC) – Archer is close to being let back in the Raise garden, but first he has to prove that he can impact the fantasy score sheet for two games in a row. Up til now, Archer has been playing hopscotch with his fantasy point totals, including a five-start run of FanDUel points that have gone in a sequence of 42-3-45-18-48 points. If the sequence holds true, then he’s in for a rough one against the Royals, so tonight’s start will be a key opportunity for Archer to re-establish himself. He hasn’t struck out more than seven batters in a ballgame in over a month and has been giving up far too many home runs, with 12 homers given up on the season and five allowed over his last four games.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs NYY) – Sanchez was a revelation for the Jays over the first month of the season, holding the opposition to one or zero earned runs in four of his first five starts. May has seen a lot more runners cross the plate, but Sanchez is also chewing more innings on the whole, having registered 20 or 21 outs in each of his last six starts. His K counts have been consistent though unspectacular, never topping a K-per-inning yet notching 5-to-7 whiffs in each of his last six starts. He held his own against the Yanks in his second start of the season and is coming off of a respectable performance against the formidable Red Sox offense that earned Sanchez a quality start, encouraging the notion that can pin up another seven frames with three churns through the batting order and minimal damage on the scoreboard.

Masahiro Tanaka NYY (at TOR) – Tanaka has faced the Jays ocne already this season, in what was his only four-walk game of the campaign, as Tanaka lasted just 5.0 innings while throwing 92 pitches. The Yankees have kept his workload at 102 pitches or under in every start this season, but his efficient approach to at-bats has allowed him to go 7.0 or more innings in six of his last eight starts. Tanaka has been more successful on the road than at home this season (small sample alert), as all six of his homers allowed this year have come in Yankee Stadium, but he has kept the ball in the park in five starts and 33.2 innings on the road.

Jaime Garcia STL (at MIL) – The Brewers have a couple of hitters who specialize in hitting lefties, particularly Ryan Braun (career OPS 158 points higher vs. LHP), so Garcia will be watching the opposing lineup card closely to see if Braun’s recent rash of minor maladies keeps him out of the starting lineup.

Michael Fulmer DET (at LAA)

Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. TEX)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. DET)

Robbie Ray ARI (at HOU)

Danny Duffy KC (vs. TB) – Duffy is stretching out to be a real starter, with his pitch-counts growing like Pinocchio’s nose in a high-stakes game of poker. Over the last three games (all of them starts), the southpaw has seen his pitch count increase from 48 to 63 and then 76 pitches 48-63-76 pitches; he’ll be gunning for 85 throws tonight against Tampa Bay, but their southpaw-killing offense might throw a wrench into the Royals best-laid plans.

Adam Conley MIA (vs. PIT)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. MIN)

Mike Fiers HOU (vs. ARI)

Jon Niese PIT (at MIA)

Christian Friedrich SD (vs. SEA)

Albert Suarez SF (at ATL) – Suarez will be making his first major league start following five appearances out of the bullpen, the last of which was a five-inning mop-up in Colorado in which he threw 65 pitches. That was five days ago, so he has a starter’s rest following the beefed up workload, but expect Suarez to still have a limited pitch count that will shrink his innings and could keep him out of range for the win, even against the soft Atlanta offense.

Zach Davies MIL (vs. STL)

Williams Perez ATL (vs. SF)

Miguel Gonzalez CHW (at NYM)

Pat Dean MIN (at OAK)