Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 16th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owens | BOS | BAL | 36.0 | 5.25 | 4.77 | 1.47 | 0.0% | 20.10% | 10.7% | 1.50 | 0.57 |
| Wright | BAL | BOS | 39.2 | 5.45 | 4.96 | 1.41 | 0.0% | 14.20% | 8.0% | 1.59 | 0.94 |
| Arrieta | CHC | PIT | 355.2 | 2.23 | 2.88 | 0.95 | 50.0% | 26.90% | 6.3% | 0.38 | 2.02 |
| Burnett | PIT | CHC | 354.0 | 4.02 | 3.86 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 20.10% | 8.8% | 0.71 | 1.93 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | PHI | 311.2 | 3.73 | 3.68 | 1.32 | 46.7% | 23.00% | 8.8% | 0.49 | 1.59 |
| Asher | PHI | WAS | 14.1 | 10.67 | 6.06 | 2.02 | 0.0% | 9.70% | 8.3% | 3.14 | 0.56 |
| Price | TOR | ATL | 449.2 | 2.90 | 2.97 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.00% | 4.4% | 0.82 | 1.09 |
| Miller | ATL | TOR | 365.1 | 3.30 | 4.32 | 1.25 | 21.1% | 18.60% | 8.9% | 0.81 | 1.19 |
| Duffy | KCR | CLE | 275.1 | 3.27 | 4.55 | 1.24 | 57.1% | 17.40% | 8.9% | 0.85 | 0.89 |
| Salazar | CLE | KCR | 271.1 | 3.85 | 3.30 | 1.23 | 12.5% | 26.10% | 7.2% | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Conley | MIA | NYM | 42.0 | 4.93 | 4.18 | 1.55 | 0.0% | 20.40% | 9.1% | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Colon | NYM | MIA | 379.0 | 4.11 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.60% | 3.3% | 1.04 | 1.06 |
| Severino | NYY | TBR | 37.2 | 3.35 | 4.03 | 1.35 | 0.0% | 23.60% | 10.6% | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| Archer | TBR | NYY | 387.0 | 3.14 | 3.30 | 1.17 | 55.0% | 25.60% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| Keuchel | HOU | TEX | 406.2 | 2.57 | 2.95 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 20.90% | 5.8% | 0.53 | 3.34 |
| Perez | TEX | HOU | 106.0 | 4.92 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 37.5% | 15.00% | 8.3% | 0.51 | 2.57 |
| Garcia | STL | MIL | 148.0 | 2.86 | 3.24 | 1.02 | 28.6% | 19.60% | 5.5% | 0.61 | 2.71 |
| Peralta | MIL | STL | 298.2 | 3.74 | 4.02 | 1.36 | 47.4% | 16.50% | 7.2% | 1.02 | 1.92 |
| Norris | DET | MIN | 51.1 | 4.56 | 4.84 | 1.42 | 0.0% | 17.00% | 9.8% | 1.40 | 0.81 |
| Santana | MIN | DET | 276.0 | 4.17 | 3.87 | 1.33 | 38.9% | 20.70% | 7.6% | 0.91 | 1.20 |
| Martin | OAK | CHW | 24.2 | 6.57 | 3.59 | 1.54 | 0.0% | 22.00% | 7.3% | 1.46 | 0.93 |
| Johnson | CHW | OAK | 34.2 | 5.45 | 5.01 | 1.62 | 20.0% | 17.50% | 13.0% | 1.30 | 0.98 |
| Cashner | SDP | ARI | 290.0 | 3.54 | 3.89 | 1.30 | 75.0% | 19.40% | 7.0% | 0.78 | 1.55 |
| Ray | ARI | SDP | 135.1 | 4.52 | 4.28 | 1.43 | 33.3% | 19.70% | 8.8% | 0.80 | 1.05 |
| Weaver | LAA | SEA | 351.0 | 4.03 | 4.43 | 1.22 | 52.4% | 16.70% | 6.3% | 1.21 | 0.72 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | LAA | 281.1 | 3.71 | 3.18 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 21.10% | 3.7% | 1.15 | 1.70 |
| De La Rosa | COL | LAD | 325.1 | 4.18 | 4.09 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 19.50% | 9.6% | 1.02 | 1.76 |
| Wood | LAD | COL | 334.2 | 3.28 | 3.72 | 1.28 | 58.3% | 21.00% | 7.2% | 0.78 | 1.48 |
| Lorenzen | CIN | SFG | 105.2 | 5.45 | 5.10 | 1.68 | 0.0% | 16.00% | 11.6% | 1.45 | 1.28 |
| Peavy | SFG | CIN | 289.1 | 3.86 | 4.20 | 1.25 | 42.1% | 18.10% | 7.0% | 1.06 | 0.89 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
David Price TOR (at ATL) – Every pitcher gets a boost when facing the hapless Braves, but when an elite lefty such as Price takes the hill, the potential fantasy points go through the roof. Atlanta has a .287 wOBA and 648 OPS against southpaws this season, as left-handers reduce the impact of the two most dangerous hitters in the Braves lineup, Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis. Price has enjoyed his tour of Toronto, with a 2.28 ERA and 65 strikeouts through 55.3 innings of pitching in blue, with six or more strikeouts in each of his eight starts with the new ballclub. He failed to meet the minimums for a quality start in his last game, a first for Price as a Blue Jay, but he still allowed three or fewer runs for the eighth start in a row.
Jake Arrieta CHC (at PIT) – Pitchers don’t get much hotter than Arrieta is right now. He has a 0.46 ERA over his last eight starts, with just three earned runs across 58.3 innings of work, including a K per inning with just 29 hits and 12 walks allowed. He’s reached quality start status in 16 consecutive turns and has struck out seven or more hitters in each of his last five games, with an ERA that just dropped below the 2.00 threshold. Last season’s breakout doesn’t just appear to be legitimate, but rather the precursor to his ascension to acedom. At this point his opponent is almost trivial, and in the case of Pittsburgh they have failed to solve Arrieta in three separate attempts this season (he has a 0.86 ERA against the Pirates this year), effectively darkening the cloud above their postseason aspirations in what could be a preview of the NL Wild Card game.
Dallas Keuchel HOU (at TEX) – Keuchel’s value has increased at least three sizes this season. He has taken the surprising breakout of 2014 and made it look like a shallow stepping stone, having added the strikeouts to justify an ace label and shaving another three-quarters of a run off of his already-low ERA, which currently leads the AL at 2.26. The southpaw has tossed a minimum of six full innings in each of his 29 starts this season, has rattled off eight quality starts in a ow, and has punched out 36 hitters over 28.0 innings in his last four outings combined. Combine his newfound bat-missing skills with a Rangers club that strikes out more often against left-handers (22.0 percent), and you have a recipe for Keuchel’s fifth double-digit strikeout game of the season.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (vs. NYY) – Archer has been a strikeout machine this season, punching out 11.0 batters per nine innings for a total of 30.5-percent of all batters faced, a jump of 9.4 percentage points over last season’s strikeout frequency. To put it another way, Archer has thrown 2.3 innings fewer than he did in 2014 yet already has 63 more strikeouts than last year’s total. The right-hander has been particularly hittable lately, giving up three or more runs in five of his last seven starts, including three turns with four or more runs allowed. His strikeout totals have kept the fantasy points above water in all but the worst of times (he had -7.20 points on DraftKings in his August 15th start), and though Archer is the surest bet to reach double-digit K’s tonight, the downside against a potent Yankees offense is steep enough to raise an eyebrow at his expensive price tag.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. KC) – Well, either the Tigers have solved Salazar or he just completely lost it. His last two starts came against Detroit, resulting in a total of nine runs allowed over ten innings, with just four strikeouts. He has just endured a brutal six-start stretch in which he faced the Tigers twice, the Yankees twice, the Red Sox, and the Blue Jays. It doesn’t get much easier tonight against Kansas City, a team known for it’s ability to put the ball in play, so his strikeout rate might drift closer to his innings count by the time the night is finished (the K count is currently at a plus-15 when compared to his innings).
Luis Severino NYY (at TB) – The right-hander has legit stuff, including mid-90’s heat and a slutter with wicked bite that comes in at 90 mph and leaves his hand on the same plane as his fastball. He cruised through his first several starts in the sense of run prevention, but he carried an ominous combination of a high walk rate and low hit rate that were due for regression, and the Blue Jays took care of it in Severino’s last start by scoring six runs off of him in just 2.3 innings. He gets a much easier task today against a Rays club that he took down two starts ago, though he’s unlikely to escape with just one run allowed if Severino allows another ten baserunners in his six innings of work.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owens | 0.436 | 10.50 | 0.326 | 4.20 | 0.251 | 0.693 | 0.294 | 5.12 | 0.257 | 91.14 | 20.1% |
| Wright | 0.374 | 4.74 | 0.330 | 6.10 | 0.265 | 0.737 | 0.280 | 5.62 | 0.268 | 76.11 | 14.2% |
| Arrieta | 0.227 | 1.76 | 0.251 | 2.65 | 0.261 | 0.723 | 0.263 | 2.40 | 0.196 | 101.07 | 26.9% |
| Burnett | 0.336 | 4.44 | 0.312 | 3.67 | 0.244 | 0.729 | 0.314 | 3.78 | 0.258 | 99.73 | 20.1% |
| Gonzalez | 0.285 | 3.52 | 0.309 | 3.79 | 0.259 | 0.694 | 0.318 | 3.09 | 0.247 | 95.96 | 23.0% |
| Asher | 0.465 | 9.00 | 0.452 | 12.27 | 0.252 | 0.724 | 0.333 | 7.96 | 0.348 | 0.00 | 9.7% |
| Price | 0.290 | 2.77 | 0.277 | 2.94 | 0.235 | 0.648 | 0.300 | 2.80 | 0.234 | 108.00 | 26.0% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 3.63 | 0.282 | 3.02 | 0.263 | 0.779 | 0.269 | 3.94 | 0.231 | 93.57 | 18.6% |
| Duffy | 0.225 | 1.88 | 0.321 | 3.68 | 0.262 | 0.723 | 0.266 | 4.18 | 0.233 | 84.78 | 17.4% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.68 | 0.310 | 3.98 | 0.271 | 0.745 | 0.306 | 3.63 | 0.243 | 98.24 | 26.1% |
| Conley | 0.408 | 2.70 | 0.348 | 5.35 | 0.245 | 0.725 | 0.341 | 4.55 | 0.287 | 67.36 | 20.4% |
| Colon | 0.309 | 3.84 | 0.321 | 4.40 | 0.250 | 0.667 | 0.308 | 3.65 | 0.272 | 91.52 | 17.6% |
| Severino | 0.357 | 2.70 | 0.278 | 4.08 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.283 | 4.63 | 0.238 | 93.14 | 23.6% |
| Archer | 0.271 | 2.99 | 0.286 | 3.33 | 0.249 | 0.740 | 0.294 | 3.04 | 0.226 | 100.37 | 25.6% |
| Keuchel | 0.226 | 2.31 | 0.282 | 2.65 | 0.243 | 0.706 | 0.281 | 3.00 | 0.229 | 104.90 | 20.9% |
| Perez | 0.277 | 5.61 | 0.350 | 4.71 | 0.245 | 0.741 | 0.324 | 3.74 | 0.281 | 91.06 | 15.0% |
| Garcia | 0.327 | 4.78 | 0.245 | 2.33 | 0.238 | 0.687 | 0.259 | 3.25 | 0.218 | 92.61 | 19.6% |
| Peralta | 0.362 | 4.90 | 0.297 | 2.64 | 0.263 | 0.734 | 0.303 | 4.23 | 0.269 | 95.52 | 16.5% |
| Norris | 0.345 | 5.14 | 0.339 | 4.34 | 0.262 | 0.730 | 0.279 | 5.09 | 0.255 | 65.79 | 17.0% |
| Santana | 0.342 | 4.71 | 0.304 | 3.60 | 0.268 | 0.738 | 0.313 | 3.76 | 0.260 | 96.27 | 20.7% |
| Martin | 0.209 | 5.63 | 0.437 | 7.02 | 0.255 | 0.705 | 0.366 | 4.52 | 0.303 | 17.64 | 22.0% |
| Johnson | 0.432 | 6.00 | 0.307 | 5.03 | 0.251 | 0.701 | 0.310 | 5.36 | 0.273 | 94.00 | 17.5% |
| Cashner | 0.343 | 4.56 | 0.281 | 2.68 | 0.265 | 0.734 | 0.304 | 3.57 | 0.256 | 98.06 | 19.4% |
| Ray | 0.333 | 3.68 | 0.347 | 4.83 | 0.241 | 0.673 | 0.323 | 3.89 | 0.268 | 86.25 | 19.7% |
| Weaver | 0.328 | 4.11 | 0.292 | 3.92 | 0.240 | 0.714 | 0.269 | 4.40 | 0.246 | 97.36 | 16.7% |
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.41 | 0.265 | 4.01 | 0.248 | 0.705 | 0.279 | 3.58 | 0.241 | 91.77 | 21.1% |
| De La Rosa | 0.268 | 3.36 | 0.332 | 4.42 | 0.265 | 0.757 | 0.276 | 4.29 | 0.238 | 95.14 | 19.5% |
| Wood | 0.273 | 2.46 | 0.320 | 3.54 | 0.246 | 0.663 | 0.312 | 3.51 | 0.256 | 83.56 | 21.0% |
| Lorenzen | 0.439 | 6.43 | 0.329 | 4.81 | 0.269 | 0.742 | 0.320 | 5.54 | 0.289 | 85.09 | 16.0% |
| Peavy | 0.325 | 4.36 | 0.315 | 3.38 | 0.250 | 0.709 | 0.283 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 97.96 | 18.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. LAA) – Iwakuma hasn’t had a great game since the seven-run drubbing that he took on the chin from the A’s back on August 24th, and though his overall stats look shiny enough during that stretch (2.95 ERA with 15 K’s and six walks in 18.0 innings), he ‘s only been worth 14.4 fantasy points per game (DraftKings). Iwakuma’s facing a top-heavy Angels lineup that disappears on the back half, but the top half has started to hit after struggling through most of August. Keeping the splitter under the zone will be key for a pitcher who has allowed 16 homers this season in just 102.3 innings of work.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at PHI) – Gonzalez looks superficially as if he has righted the ship after a disaster month of August, but reality is that he has had the fortune of facing the Braves and Marlins in his two September starts. This time around he gets another easy lunch, facing a Philadelphia club that had Andres Blanco batting cleanup last night (not that it mattered who was hitting where, with the way that Stras was dealing). The Phils have a .285 wOBA over the last seven days and their position players are dropping like flies, with the team just trying to survive the final three weeks on the schedule.
Jaime Garcia STL (at MIL) – Garcia was pitching out of his mind to start the year, at least in terms of keeping runs off the scoreboard, but he has had a trio of starts that have gone against the grain. First there was the game of 10 hits over 5.3 frames (including four earned runs) against the Giants, followed by his nine-strikeout domination of the Pirates (his highest K count this season by three strikeouts), and then a six-run disaster through 4.3 innings in his last start. I have no idea which version of Garcia will show up tonight in Milwaukee.
A.J. Burnett PIT (vs. CHC)
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. MIA)
Shelby Miller ATL (vs. TOR)
Robbie Ray ARI (vs. SD)
Alex Wood LAD (vs. COL)
Jake Peavy SF (s. CIN)
Danny Duffy KC (at CLE)
Jered Weaver LAA (at SEA)
Andrew Cashner SD (at ARI)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. STL)
Daniel Norris DET (at MIN)
Henry Owens BOS (at BAL)
Martin Perez TEX (vs. HOU)
Jorge de la Rosa COL (at LAD)
Michael Lorenzen CIN (at SF)
Erik Johnson CHW (vs. OAK)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Ervin Santana MIN (vs. DET)
Mike Wright BAL (vs. BOS)
Adam Conley MIA (at NYM)
Cody Martin OAK (at CHW)
Alec Asher PHI (vs. WAS)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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