Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 23rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-24 18:45:10

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Editor’s Note: Zack Greinke has been scratched from tonight’s start. A new starter has not yet been named.

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Montas	CHW	DET
Verlander	DET	CHW	320.1	4.16	4.14	1.28	35.0%	18.5%	6.7%	0.81	0.89
Tropeano	LAA	HOU	48.1	4.84	4.53	1.41		16.8%	7.7%	0.19	0.84
Fiers	HOU	LAA	239.2	3.19	3.57	1.15		25.0%	7.8%	1.09	0.85
Tillman	BAL	WAS	361.2	4.13	4.44	1.30	42.9%	16.8%	8.0%	1.00	1.11
Scherzer	WAS	BAL	425.1	3.03	2.88	1.07	60.0%	28.5%	5.4%	0.91	0.82
Nova	NYY	TOR	96.1	5.79	4.67	1.49	25.0%	13.5%	7.5%	1.49	1.55
Stroman	TOR	NYY	142.2	3.60	3.24	1.16	66.7%	20.0%	5.3%	0.50	2.07
Buchanan	PHI	MIA	176	5.32	4.60	1.52	20.0%	13.0%	7.4%	1.07	1.63
Conley	MIA	PHI	49	4.22	4.04	1.39		21.0%	8.1%	1.10	1.03
Smyly	TBR	BOS	207.1	3.34	3.57	1.17	50.0%	23.1%	6.6%	1.26	0.81
Porcello	BOS	TBR	354.2	4.16	3.89	1.29	55.6%	17.2%	5.1%	1.07	1.52
Perez	ATL	NYM	104.2	5.16	4.87	1.57		14.7%	10.1%	1.03	1.73
Colon	NYM	ATL	384.2	4.12	3.87	1.23	42.1%	17.5%	3.3%	1.08	1.06
Davies	MIL	CHC	21	6.00	5.10	1.48		15.1%	12.9%	0.86	2.27
Hendricks	CHC	MIL	242.1	3.64	3.73	1.18		19.0%	5.6%	0.78	1.72
Kluber	CLE	MIN	440	2.90	2.77	1.07	57.1%	28.0%	5.1%	0.70	1.38
Hughes	MIN	CLE	359	3.96	3.69	1.20	45.0%	18.6%	2.2%	1.13	0.88
Elias	SEA	KCR	265.2	3.93	4.03	1.29	26.3%	20.4%	8.8%	0.95	1.31
Ventura	KCR	SEA	326.1	3.72	3.85	1.32	44.4%	21.0%	8.7%	0.77	1.67
Finnegan	CIN	STL	39	2.31	3.23	1.08		25.0%	10.9%	0.92	2.76
Lynn	STL	CIN	363	2.98	3.92	1.32	60.0%	21.6%	8.8%	0.64	1.23
Morton	PIT	COL	280	3.95	3.81	1.29	50.0%	18.1%	8.1%	0.64	2.54
Bergman	COL	PIT	111.1	4.85	4.42	1.42	33.3%	13.4%	4.6%	1.29	0.92
Lewis	TEX	OAK	360.1	4.77	4.32	1.35	11.8%	17.0%	5.6%	1.22	0.77
Doubront	OAK	TEX	143.1	5.27	4.60	1.52	20.0%	15.3%	8.3%	1.19	1.13
Peavy	SFG	SDP	295.1	3.84	4.17	1.25	42.1%	18.3%	6.9%	1.04	0.90
Cashner	SDP	SFG	297	3.55	3.89	1.30	75.0%	19.4%	7.0%	0.79	1.54
Anderson	ARI	LAD	255.2	4.29	4.08	1.35	40.0%	18.7%	6.9%	1.16	1.22
Greinke	LAD	ARI	410	2.17	3.08	1.00	50.0%	24.4%	4.9%	0.70	1.55

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Editor’s Note: Zack Greinke has been scratched from tonight’s start. A new starter has not yet been named.

Zack Greinke LAD (vs. ARI) – Greinke leads the majors in ERA (1.65), WHIP (0.848), win-loss percentage (.857) and hit rate (6.1 hits per nine innings). Short of an epic collapse, Greinke will finish the season with an ERA under 2.00 and threatens to interrupt the string of National League Cy Young awards that have been won by teammate Clayton Kershaw (Jake Arrieta might have a say in the final outcome, as well). Today Greinke faces the top-scoring team in the NL, an Arizona club that has scored 4.50 runs per game this season, though Greinke has jept them off the board thus far this season with 15.0 shutout frames in his two starts against them. Greinke has allowed more than three runs just once this season, and that game was played in the thin air of Denver, making him the safest bet on tonight’s docket by a wide margin. He just lacks the upside to surpass Kluber for the top spot.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. BAL) – Scherzer had a rough journey through August, with a 6.43 ERA on the month that took him off the Cy track and put him back on his typical course for a merely excellent season. He has righted the ship in September, having made four starts with a composite ERA of 3.00 and 28 strikeouts against three walks. The biggest issue of his second half continues to be homeruns, as the right hander – who gave up just three long balls over his first ten starts and 71.0 innings pitched – has coughed up 15 bombs in 67.0 innings over his last 11 turns. The other peripherals have remained intact over that stretch, including 79 strikeouts and just 14 walks, but his run prevention will continue to disappoint so long as he can’t avoid the longball. The Orioles will be a difficult test, as they have the fourth-most homers in the majors as a team this season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (at MIN) – Aside from the win-loss record (Kluber is a ridiculous 8-14) and the run prevention (his 3.44 ERA is a full run higher than it was last season), the right-hander is having a dynamite season that is on par with his 2014 breakout. That is to say that his peripheral stats in the true outcome categories have hardly changed, as the K rate is still excellent at 27.6 percent and his walk rate is a career-best at 4.6 percent, though his ultra-low homer rate has increased from the 1.5 percent of last year to the 2.5-percent rate of this year. He has had a few hiccups recently, having given up five or more runs in three of his last nine starts, and a balky hamstring caused the Indians to skip a couple of starts for the right-hander. Cleveland limited him to 69 pitches in what turned out to be four frames in his first game back in rotation, and the possibility of an early hook is the only thing standing between Kluber and his rightful place among the All-In crew.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Montas	0.397	3.38	0.144		0.267	0.732
Verlander	0.289	3.15	0.345	5.56	0.254	0.706	0.299	3.68	0.256	106.51	18.5%
Tropeano	0.312	4.08	0.316	5.95	0.246	0.736	0.329	3.02	0.272	81.80	16.8%
Fiers	0.267	2.96	0.310	3.39	0.247	0.703	0.272	3.70	0.221	91.95	25.0%
Tillman	0.304	3.15	0.324	5.20	0.253	0.730	0.278	4.24	0.248	97.37	16.8%
Scherzer	0.300	3.42	0.260	2.54	0.254	0.747	0.296	2.88	0.225	105.60	28.5%
Nova	0.371	5.15	0.362	6.50	0.264	0.780	0.305	5.34	0.288	86.11	13.5%
Stroman	0.282	3.29	0.281	3.95	0.248	0.740	0.301	2.97	0.247	80.57	20.0%
Buchanan	0.337	4.52	0.379	5.98	0.252	0.672	0.319	4.70	0.293	87.59	13.0%
Conley	0.408	2.70	0.318	4.46	0.257	0.690	0.319	4.10	0.267	70.00	21.0%
Smyly	0.218	2.26	0.335	3.74	0.274	0.762	0.280	3.91	0.237	92.76	23.1%
Porcello	0.335	4.04	0.313	4.30	0.247	0.700	0.308	3.98	0.272	95.86	17.2%
Perez	0.378	5.93	0.326	4.32	0.246	0.711	0.320	4.94	0.287	80.67	14.7%
Colon	0.307	3.80	0.327	4.47	0.255	0.676	0.308	3.71	0.272	91.21	17.5%
Davies	0.248	0.84	0.384	11.32	0.247	0.734	0.262	4.76	0.235	88.25	15.1%
Hendricks	0.327	3.50	0.276	3.75	0.261	0.720	0.292	3.55	0.249	88.14	19.0%
Kluber	0.311	3.21	0.239	2.58	0.243	0.697	0.307	2.60	0.23	103.05	28.0%
Hughes	0.297	3.46	0.343	4.55	0.253	0.723	0.316	3.55	0.277	91.63	18.6%
Elias	0.296	3.68	0.320	4.00	0.271	0.719	0.288	4.12	0.242	88.69	20.4%
Ventura	0.306	3.83	0.313	3.59	0.241	0.717	0.299	3.70	0.245	95.39	21.0%
Finnegan	0.280	0.75	0.268	3.00	0.231	0.663	0.221	3.86	0.181	26.21	25.0%
Lynn	0.334	3.75	0.281	2.41	0.251	0.716	0.303	3.44	0.244	102.28	21.6%
Morton	0.331	4.52	0.294	3.42	0.270	0.774	0.296	3.86	0.249	93.28	18.1%
Bergman	0.284	2.54	0.420	6.71	0.262	0.727	0.320	4.48	0.299	48.81	13.4%
Lewis	0.342	4.57	0.332	5.02	0.252	0.708	0.310	4.32	0.277	96.71	17.0%
Doubront	0.346	5.08	0.355	5.35	0.247	0.713	0.312	4.67	0.282	71.47	15.3%
Peavy	0.324	4.32	0.318	3.38	0.245	0.694	0.285	4.08	0.25	97.96	18.3%
Cashner	0.343	4.50	0.282	2.74	0.267	0.741	0.305	3.59	0.256	97.90	19.4%
Anderson	0.326	4.01	0.345	4.52	0.248	0.743	0.311	4.22	0.271	90.65	18.7%
Greinke	0.260	1.92	0.258	2.38	0.266	0.736	0.271	2.87	0.217	100.77	24.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Drew Smyly TB (at BOS) – Smyly has spiked a couple of high-K ballgames, including three contests of double-digit punchouts out of the 10 starts that he has made this season. However, each of the other seven starts has included a half-dozen or fewer strikeouts, making him a true boom-or-bust candidate that is better deployed in GPP formats than cash games due to the inherent volatility. The southpaw faces Boston tonight, a club that he absolutely dominated two starts ago with six shutout innings and 11 strikeouts against six baserunners, but he has an uphill climb to attain a repeat performance against a Red Sox offense that has a .330 wOBA against southpaws this season.

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. SEA) – The Mariners offense continues their battle march through the season’s second half, leaving pitchers behind bloodied with irreparable damage to their ERA’s. Ventura will have to hope that the M’s got the run-scoring out of their system over the weekend, where they scored a combined 21 runs in two games against the Rangers. It might be too little too late to salvage any hopes of the postseason, but for a struggling pitcher who is just starting to regain his ground, Seattle offers the possibility of a heavy setback with precious little time before the playoffs begin.

Lance Lynn STL (vs. CIN) – It’s all going south at the wrong time for Lynn, who is gasping for air as we near the finish line despite playing on a club whose MLB-best record has already earned them a clinch of postseason baseball. The last time around, he walked six of the 19 Cubs that he faced and was told to hit the bricks before the fourth inning was finished; meanwhile, he hasn’t struck out more than three batters in a game since August 18. He incurs a heavy discount on DraftKings, where his salary is ranked 10th among today’s slate of starting pitchers (he’s the fifth-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel), but the fact that the has been held under nine fantasy points (DK) in four of the last five starts does little to inspire hope of a positive return on his discounted price.

Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. ATL) – Colon minimizes the walks better than other starting pitcher in the game, with a rate of 1.1 free passes per nine innings that leads the majors and fuels a 1.245 WHIP despite an egregious hit rate of 10.1 safeties per nine. He has been particularly effective at keeping runs off the board in his last five starts, with a 1.24 ERA over that stretch, but such run prevention is necessary for Colon to put up a good score in DFS because the strikeouts are so pedestrian; in the 36.3 innings of his last five starts he has just 23 strikeouts.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. NYY) – It’s an incredible sight to behold: Marcus Stroman on a big-league mound just six months after tearing his ACL. He finds himself right in the thick of a tight AL East race, facing the rival Yankees with the division on the line. I was big on Stroman coming into the season, prior to the injury, but even that optimism can’t blind me from seeing the copious warning flags for this particular start. The Yankees’ offense is second only to that of the Jays, Stroman is still getting his mechanical timing honed, and the K count thus far has been underwhelming with five whiffs in a dozen frames. He did throw 96 pitches in his last start, and the strikeouts could be just around the corner, but I have to see it before I’ll invest in it.

Andrew Cashner SD (vs. SF) – His raw velocity and incredible arm-side movement on the two-seamer had me convinced before the season that Cashner was ready to leap into the next-highest tier of starting pitchers. I was wrong. He has upped the K rate to levels more befitting his stuff, but the concurrent rise in ERA (and especially RA) have more than offset the extra whiffs to make him unrosterable at times during the season. He earns some consideration today on account of the weak slate of available pitchers, but Cash is in the midst of a 5.56 ERA month that has been heavy on the walks.

Jake Peavy SF (at SD)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. MIL)

Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB)

Roenis Elias SEA (at KC)

Phil Hughes MIN (vs. CLE)

Chase Anderson ARI (vs. LAD)

Colby Lewis TEX (at OAK)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at STL)

Adam Conley MIA (vs. PHI)

Zach Davies MIL (at CHC)

Felix Doubront OAK (vs. TEX)