Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, September 7th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-09-08 02:28:10

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Syndergaard	NYM	CIN	312	2.88	2.96	1.08		28.2%	5.3%	0.84	1.60
Desclafani	CIN	NYM	286	3.65	4.03	1.28	20.0%	20.0%	6.4%	0.91	1.25
Bundy	BAL	TBR	90.2	3.47	4.18	1.32		22.1%	8.6%	1.29	0.82
Smyly	TBR	BAL	221.2	4.38	3.80	1.22	50.0%	24.9%	6.7%	1.62	0.66
Sanchez	DET	CWS	294.1	5.32	4.25	1.37	41.2%	20.4%	7.8%	1.65	0.97
Quintana	CWS	DET	383.2	3.21	3.77	1.20	50.0%	21.3%	5.3%	0.80	1.29
Meyer	LAA	OAK
Cotton	OAK	LAA
Strasburg	WAS	ATL	272.2	3.53	3.01	1.11	52.4%	30.0%	6.3%	0.96	1.11
Leake	STL	PIT	344	4.08	4.04	1.21	45.0%	16.0%	5.1%	1.05	2.02
Taillon	PIT	STL	83	3.25	3.49	1.07		20.4%	3.7%	1.08	2.15
Stroman	TOR	NYY	200	4.19	3.48	1.25	66.7%	19.4%	5.8%	0.95	3.07
Mitchell	NYY	TOR	29.2	6.37	3.97	1.79		20.3%	11.2%	1.21	2.29
Fister	HOU	CLE	264	4.02	4.76	1.36	58.3%	14.6%	6.7%	1.16	1.27
Carrasco	CLE	HOU	319	3.39	3.00	1.08		28.1%	5.9%	1.04	1.66
Hellickson	PHI	MIA	306	4.24	4.12	1.25		20.0%	6.3%	1.35	1.13
Cashner	MIA	PHI	296.1	4.59	4.28	1.45	75.0%	19.7%	8.8%	1.03	1.52
Montgomery	CHC	MIL	173.2	3.73	4.11	1.33		18.9%	9.2%	0.88	2.18
Garza	MIL	CHC	229.1	5.26	4.72	1.55	35.0%	15.4%	8.5%	1.26	1.53
Duffy	KCR	MIN	286	3.59	4.01	1.23	57.1%	21.8%	7.2%	1.07	0.92
Gibson	MIN	KCR	311.2	4.39	4.36	1.40	52.6%	16.9%	8.1%	1.01	1.87
Suarez	SFG	COL	65	4.29	4.43	1.28		17.4%	7.6%	0.97	1.49
De La Rosa	COL	SFG	269	4.48	4.46	1.45	40.0%	19.2%	10.2%	1.14	1.71
Price	BOS	SDP	411	3.13	3.42	1.14	52.4%	24.9%	5.4%	0.85	1.21
Cosart	SDP	BOS	118.2	4.78	4.87	1.50	31.6%	15.2%	12.3%	0.91	2.77
Ray	ARI	LAD	277	4.03	3.76	1.40	33.3%	25.0%	8.7%	0.88	1.40
Stewart	LAD	ARI	17	7.94	4.46	1.82		22.5%	11.3%	2.65	1.19
Griffin	TEX	SEA	102	4.41	4.62	1.28		20.5%	8.4%	1.85	0.63
Miranda	SEA	TEX	29.2	5.76	4.89	1.45		18.1%	9.5%	1.82	0.83

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Noah Syndergaard NYM (CIN) – His recent performance has lacked flash, but Syndergaard has been merely very good in virtually every start of that last two months. He’s only given up more than three earned runs in three of his 27 starts this season, and though he hasn’t topped eight strikeouts in a game since mid-June, he also puts up a K-per-inning or better in nearly every start/ His reliability has immense value, especially as we get near the end of the season, with pitchers wearing down and expanded rosters allowing more teams to experiment with the alignment of their pitching staff. Oh, and Billy Hamilton has to be miffed – you know he had made a paper chain and was cutting rings leading up to this game, with visions of a five-steal day dancing in his head. Alas, an oblique injury will take Billy Ham out of the running, ensuring a much easier night of sleep for Thor.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

David Price BOS (at SD) – This is supposed to be a perfect setup. Price gets to face the strikeout-prone lineup of the recently southpaw-phobic Padres under the marine layer of San Diego, with automatic outs in the nine-hole while playing in an NL park with no designated hitter. But Price just can’t seem to put it together this season, at least not from a fantasy perspective. Earlier in the year, Price was a strikeout maven who was prone to crooked numbers on the scoreboard, and more recently the runs have died while the Ks have done the same. He has thrown five straight quality starts with a solid K:BB ratio of 34:8 over 35.0 innings to go along with a pristine 5-0 record.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. HOU) – Carrasco has been a strikeout machine recently, whiffing eight or more hitters in each of six consecutive starts, a stretch that has seen 56 total Ks over 40 innings pitched. Perhaps even more miraculously, he has only walked four batters over that same stretch. The free-swinging Astros will add to the over/under on Carrasco’s K-count tonight, but their lineup is also loaded with dangerous bats that can stockpile the runs in a hurry, as teammate Corey Kluber found out in yesterday’s game. The right-hander has been remarkable efficient with his pitch counts over the past month, going 6.2 or more innings in five of his last six starts yet exceeding 100 pitches just once in that stretch.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. DET) – Quintana was just cruising along, minding his own business, when all of a sudden the Twins came out of nowhere to score seven runs against the left-hander in his last start. Prior to that fiasco, Quintana has tossed eight consecutive quality starts, compiling a 1.81 ERA and 45:11 K:BB across 54.2 innings over that string of games, and the 5.0 frames of work from his last outing represent the lowest single-game mark of the past 15 turns. He doesn’t go extremely deep into ballgames, having completed the eighth inning just twice this season, but he is almost always good for a solid six, tossing 6.0 or more frames in 23 of his 27 starts.

Danny Duffy KC (at MIN) – Duffy struck out eight Tigers in his last start, the most punchouts that he had recorded in the six starts since his 16-K gem versus the Rays. He has only topped the eight-count of Ks two other times this season, both of which occurred back in June, and his relative lack of whiffs is exemplified by the mere 11 strikeouts over 19.1 innings that he had recorded across his last three starts of August. Duffy has now coughed up 11 runs and 18 hits over his last 10.2 innings, and though he was facing tough offenses of the Red Sox and Tigers, the vulnerability to runs is a complete departure for a pitcher that had allowed just nine total runs combined across the previous seven starts, with a 1.60 composite ERA over that stretch. His pitch-count efficiency allows Duffy to pile innings without posting outlandish pitch counts.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. ATL) – You ever get dealt a pair of Jacks in Texas hold ‘em and just know they’re no good, but you feel compelled to raise with them anyways? That’s Stras today. His last three starts before going on the DL were absolutely brutal, and we don’t know the extent to which his effectiveness will be compromised. Even if he looks like vintage Stras, the Nats will likely have the right-hander on a short leash. Meanwhile, the Braves would seem to be the ideal landing spot for a pitcher looking to ease into MLB action, but Atlanta has had a knack for blasting top-shelf pitchers in the second half of the season, and in fact they hung six runs on Strasburg on seven hits (two homers) in 5.1 innings in his second-to-last start before landing on the disabled list. He has a small chance of a big spike in fantasy points, but odds are that those investing in his services will just be disappointed when an Ace hits on the flop.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Syndergaard	0.298	3.35	0.256	2.51	0.251	0.714	0.303	2.77	0.229	0.01	28.2%
Desclafani	0.347	4.55	0.278	2.68	0.243	0.712	0.310	3.69	0.261	96.09	20.0%
Bundy	0.304	3.31	0.335	3.69	0.245	0.719	0.297	4.40	0.251	49.19	22.1%
Smyly	0.284	4.53	0.324	4.35	0.236	0.672	0.287	4.30	0.244	96.21	24.9%
Sanchez	0.318	4.54	0.364	6.19	0.252	0.704	0.296	4.85	0.263	0.00	20.4%
Quintana	0.269	3.13	0.309	3.24	0.270	0.777	0.309	3.28	0.255	104.24	21.3%
Meyer					0.249	0.702
Cotton					0.258	0.727
Foltynewicz	0.367	5.12	0.338	4.77	0.250	0.728	0.315	4.77	0.278	0.00	19.8%
Strasburg	0.264	3.14	0.298	3.94	0.255	0.693	0.301	2.90	0.224	95.35	30.0%
Leake	0.314	4.13	0.299	4.03	0.258	0.723	0.283	4.06	0.256	90.93	16.0%
Taillon	0.304	2.59	0.278	3.92	0.260	0.760	0.282	3.61	0.244	85.64	20.4%
Stroman	0.309	4.71	0.304	3.58	0.251	0.733	0.303	3.70	0.259	96.29	19.4%
Mitchell	0.332	5.40	0.378	7.16	0.258	0.778	0.359	4.75	0.296	0.00	20.3%
Fister	0.354	4.59	0.302	3.41	0.256	0.744	0.293	4.55	0.27	82.44	14.6%
Carrasco	0.292	3.02	0.280	3.69	0.249	0.745	0.292	3.18	0.226	93.04	28.1%
Hellickson	0.340	4.21	0.310	4.26	0.261	0.701	0.284	4.31	0.251	92.20	20.0%
Cashner	0.377	5.36	0.310	3.94	0.241	0.685	0.321	4.20	0.271	93.91	19.7%
Montgomery	0.316	4.44	0.313	3.42	0.244	0.717	0.286	4.23	0.244	46.72	18.9%
Garza	0.367	5.50	0.332	5.04	0.249	0.741	0.314	4.76	0.284	0.00	15.4%
Duffy	0.239	2.13	0.324	3.94	0.259	0.743	0.293	3.94	0.245	68.18	21.8%
Gibson	0.338	4.77	0.309	4.03	0.262	0.717	0.304	4.27	0.267	100.12	16.9%
Suarez	0.329	3.86	0.331	4.67	0.272	0.787	0.281	4.23	0.247	59.94	17.4%
De La Rosa	0.320	4.85	0.338	4.37	0.262	0.714	0.300	4.54	0.258	90.52	19.2%
Price	0.295	2.85	0.284	3.22	0.247	0.711	0.302	3.08	0.239	105.00	24.9%
Cosart	0.303	4.37	0.351	5.19	0.274	0.774	0.281	4.82	0.251	0.00	15.2%
Ray	0.303	3.46	0.330	4.24	0.244	0.702	0.336	3.52	0.259	99.22	25.0%
Stewart					0.263	0.734	0.354	6.45	0.31	0.00	22.5%
Griffin	0.385	5.01	0.291	3.83	0.250	0.736	0.266	5.34	0.245	92.11	20.5%
Miranda			0.346	5.96	0.262	0.748	0.291	5.44	0.27	0.00	18.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Robbie Ray ARI (at LAD) – Ray gets a pass for his last start, as all pitcher do when throwing in the high-altitude hell of Coors Field. He gave up six runs (five earned) on eight hits through 4.1 innings, and perhaps most disappointingly, he mustered just two strikeouts in the contest. Otherwise, strikeouts have been the name of the game, as Ray has posted double-digit strikeouts in three of his last eight turns, something that he did zero times in his first 19 starts this season. The last time that Ray faced the Dodgers, he blanked them over 7.0 innings, striking out seven batters while giving up just six baserunners.

Dylan Bundy BAL (at TB) – Bundy has been kept under 100 pitches in every start, though he tossed a season-high 97 pitches in his last turn, a which featured 5.2 scoreless frames but got him bounced before Bundy could notch the quality start, thanks in part to four walks allowed. He has given away 11 free passes over his last three games combined, covering 15.2 innings, and his penchant for deep counts is costing Bundy in the walks column as well as limiting his innings. The right-hander has only exceeded 6.0 frames in one of his starts, and it took a one-hit, one-walk performance to just get through the seventh inning.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at NYY) – Stroman spent much of the season with a low strikeout rate and an ERA that was hovering around 5.00, but he had a magnificent four-game stretch to begin August in which Stroman posted a 2.10 ERA and a remarkable 34:4 K:BB in 25.2 innings. THe biggest outlier was a 13-strikeout performance against the Astros, but the eight- and nine-counts of strikeouts that he notched in the next few starts represented his highest single-game totals since Stroman’s first two starts of the season. That said, he’ll have to reverse course after a pair of rough starts against weak teams, giving up nine runs on 14 hits against the Rays and Twins over the span of his last two starts.

Jeremy Hellickson PHI (at MIA) – Giancarlo is back, but he is limited to a pinch-hitting capacity; Dee Gordon is back from suspension, but he hasn’t hit a lick since his return, with a .246/.300/.297 line in 36 games since he got back in the lineup; Marcell Ozuna hasn’t played a game yet in September due to a wrist injury; Justin Bour was just activated from the disabled list, but he is reportedly not yet 100-percent recovered from his high ankle sprain. Facing the Marlins might be the easiest assignment for a pitcher in the majors right now. For his part, Helix has been inconsistent lately, neither spiking any big scores nor enduring any true disaster starts over the past three months.

Jameson Taillon PIT (vs. STL)

Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. NYM)

Drew Smyly TB (vs. BAL)

Mike Montgomery CHC (at MIL)

Mike Leake STL (at PIT)

Doug Fister HOU (at CLE)

Jharel Cotton OAK (vs. LAA)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at SEA)

Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at WAS)

Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. KC)

Brock Stewart LAD (vs. ARI)

Alex Meyer LAA (at OAK)