MLB DFS Slate Preview: Friday, July 28
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, July 28th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
You did it. You made it to Friday. Your reward? A Harvey Wallbanger of a 14-game slate with a little bit of everything. We’ve got aces in plus matchups. We’ve got plenty more aces in tougher matchups. Lucas Giolito will make his Angels debut in Toronto, while the A’s and Rockies will try to out-tank each other at Coors Field. The trade deadline is also just a few days away, so keep an eye peeled for late-breaking news in case anything goes down that may affect your lineups before lock.
Without further ado, let’s break it all down with some MLB DFS picks to ring in the weekend.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- When I said this slate had a little bit of everything, I meant everything. That includes some dicey weather. PHI-PIT is now YELLOW/GREEN after Roth’s afternoon update, which makes me feel a lot better about Zack Wheeler than I did early in the day.
- Now, NYY-BAL and CLE-CHW are the games with more concern. We may be set for a lengthy delay to start the game in Baltimore, so there’s at least some PPD risk there. The game in Chicago has late-arriving storms that could end the game early, but there are also some other storms firing near the ballpark before the big stuff arrives. If the ballpark gets clipped by one of those earlier storms, there’s a pretty good chance we don’t see a full 9 innings here.
- WAS-NYM and MIL-ATL both have lower risk for a delay.
- The only other game with some delay potential is the Coors extravaganza. OAK-COL is GREEN/YELLOW with the chance of a late start.
- MIN-KC and CHC-STL both have phenomenal hitting weather with temperatures nearing triple-digits around first pitch with winds gusting out toward the outfield in both parks.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Lucas Giolito will toe the rubber as an Angel for the first time after he was traded from the White Sox a couple of days ago. I see no reason to think he’ll be limited in any way considering he’s pitching on normal rest, and he’s topped 90 pitches in each of his last 10 starts. The matchup is brutal, however, on the road in Toronto. Jared Walsh was designated for assignment yesterday in order to make room on the roster.
- Yonny Chirinos will make his Braves debut after he was claimed off waivers over the weekend from the Rays. Atlanta plans to use the right-hander as a starter, but he hasn’t topped 51 pitches in a game since late June.
- The Rockies will activate Kyle Freeland from the IL to make a start tonight against Oakland. Freeland dislocated his non-throwing shoulder back on July 9. Even against the A’s, it’s hard to ever have too much interest in this guy at Coors Field.
- Shohei Ohtani left Game 2 of yesterday’s doubleheader with cramping, presumably due to carrying the entire Angels roster on his back to a sweep of the Tigers. He’s expected to be back in his usual DH slot tonight when the Halos face Kevin Gausman north of the border.
- Aaron Judge is expected to make his long-awaited return after suffering a toe injury way back on June 3rd. He’ll be in the Yankees’ lineup tonight against Grayson Rodriguez, which is obviously a massive boost to an offense that’s been struggling mightily since he went down.
- Gunnar Henderson is questionable for the O’s on the other side of that game after missing Wednesday’s game with a back injury. He’s expected to be back in there tonight when they face off against Gerrit Cole.
- Yandy Diaz is dealing with a lingering groin injury, though the Rays’ All-Star first baseman isn’t expected to need a trip to the injured list. As of now, however, we have Harold Ramirez projected to start at first for Tampa Bay tonight in Houston.
- C.J. Cron has been sidelined all week by a back injury, but he said he’s expecting to return tonight when the Rockies host JP Sears and the A’s. Kris Bryant, meanwhile, made the familiar trip back to the IL earlier in the week with a fractured finger.
- The Twins are expected to activate Jorge Polanco from the IL in time to begin a weekend series in Kansas City tonight. He’s been out since June 8 with a hamstring issue. Edouard Julien has fared well as the usual starter in Polanco’s spot at second, so we’ll see how the Twins will shuffle their lineup. Minnesota also activated Byron Buxton from the paternity list on Thursday and sent Trevor Larnach back to the minors. Alex Kirilloff (shoulder) and Joey Gallo (illness) are iffy for the Twins ahead of tonight’s series opener against Brady Singer.
- Jonah Heim left Wednesday’s game in Houston with left wrist soreness. If he’s out tonight, either Mitch Garver or Sam Huff will catch in his place.
- Willson Contreras left in the first inning of last night’s game after he was hit in the head by an errant backswing from Ian Happ. Andrew Knizner would get the nod behind the plate if Contreras isn’t feeling well enough to return tonight.
- There’s a chance Ke’Bryan Hayes returns to the Pirates’ lineup at some point this weekend after he began a minor-league rehab assignment on Tuesday. He’s played just one game since June 24 as a result of a lingering back injury.
- Carlos Santana could be in the lineup to make his Brewers debut tonight when they take on Chirinos and the Braves in Atlanta. He came over in a trade on Thursday from the Pirates.
- JP Crawford missed Wednesday’s game after fouling a ball off his knee on Tuesday. We do have the Mariners’ shortstop projected to hit leadoff tonight when they face Tommy Henry and the DBax in Arizona.
- Amed Rosario should be available to make his Dodgers debut tonight at home against the Reds.
- Coors is back in our lives, which instantly vaults the A’s and Rockies to the top of the list for stacking tonight. There’s a 0% chance anybody has been excited to stack either team at any point this season, but this is still easily the best hitting environment in the sport. Neither team is really priced up enough for the ballpark, which makes them easy to stack along with high-end pitching. Of course, ownership should follow accordingly.
- Colorado isn’t the only game with good hitting conditions, of course. The Twins’ 5.63 total ranks among the highest on the slate tonight ahead of a matchup with Brady Singer in steamy Kansas City. The Braves, Guardians, and Dodgers all have implied run totals north of 5, while both offenses in CHC-STL are stackable against a couple of middling left-handed pitchers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There are 7 pitchers coming in at $10,000 or above tonight on FanDuel, with Gerrit Cole ($11,000), Kevin Gausman ($10,900), and Max Scherzer ($10,800) leading the way. Scherzer gets the cushiest matchup of the bunch at home against the low-power Nationals, though Gausman has been the best pitcher of the 3 this season. Zack Wheeler ($10,600) draws the Pirates, but there’s no telling how the weather in Pittsburgh will play out tonight. Logan Webb ($10,500) at home against the Red Sox is firmly in play for tournaments.
- Saving a little money on the pitching side is viable, too. Joe Musgrove ($9,800) gets a decent enough matchup at home against a shorthanded Rangers bunch still missing Corey Seager. Grayson Rodriguez ($7,700) has looked better in his second tour of big-league duty, though the Yankees will get a boost with Judge back tonight. Bobby Miller ($8,700 vs. CIN) and Cristian Javier ($9,000 vs. TB) would be next on my list as GPP fliers with some upside.
- Freeland has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, and the groundball ability he flashed earlier in his career seems to have evaporated. It’s hard to get too excited about stacking the A’s – especially a chalky version of the A’s – but there’s still value to be found here. Zack Gelof ($3,400) is a prospect with plus power, while Brent Rooker ($3,200) has been the team’s most consistent hitter all year. Ramon Laureano ($3,100) has a solid track record against southpaws, while even Shea Langeliers ($3,100) is playable even if we don’t have to roster a catcher on FanDuel.
- JP Sears has flashed a little something for Oakland amid an otherwise disastrous season, but this guy will serve up some dongs. The left-hander has yielded 24 of them already this season, including 19 to RHBs. C.J. Cron ($3,600) looks awesome if he’s healthy enough to return tonight. Ezequiel Tovar ($3,300), Randal Grichuk ($3,400), Elias Diaz ($3,200) all have ISOs of over .200 vs. left-handed pitching on the year. Elehuris Montero ($2,700) is another fine value with some pop if he cracks the lineup.
- There’s some risk here given his back trouble, but I like the value on Cron’s total base number on Underdog if he suits up. I’ll roll with Cron to rack up more than 1.5 total bases against the homer-prone lefty. New users should take advantage of our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit of up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Brady Singer has always had a wide platoon split from the right side, and we’ve seen more of the same this season. The Twins are a volatile offense with plenty of strikeouts, but they also boast loads of left-handed power. Edouard Julien ($3,400), Max Kepler ($2,800), Jorge Polanco ($3,000), and Matt Wallner ($2,700) all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHBs on the year. You can say the same of Carlos Correa, Michael Taylor, and Byron Buxton from the right side, which makes the Twins a phenomenal stack tonight in those great hitting conditions.
- The Guardians are worth a shout as as value stack in Chicago against Touki Toussaint. Guaranteed Rate is the best non-Coors hitter’s park on the slate, and Touki has shown absolutely no ability to get lefties out. The Guardians are projected to send 7 LHBs his way tonight. Jose Ramirez ($4,100) and Josh Naylor ($3,500) are the only spends here, while you can find savings with Bo Naylor ($2,600), Steven Kwan ($3,100), Andres Gimenez ($2,800), and Will Brennan ($2,400).
- The pitching pricing is a little softer overall on DraftKings tonight, though Cole ($11,000) is still leading the way with a hefty salary against the Orioles. Picking on the Angels with Gausman ($10,800) looks a little better, while Wheeler ($9,800) is a real standout over here, weather permitting. Scherzer is way down at $9,400 against Washington, while Javier ($8,600) and Miller ($7,700) are solid values, as well. Grayson Rodriguez has a lot more talent than your typical $6,300 pitcher, which keeps him firmly in play for GPPs as a cheapie.
- Gelof ($4,600) and Tony Kemp ($4,400) are the only A’s north of the $4,000 threshold on DK, so they’re easily stackable. Laureano ($3,200) gives you the best bang for the buck of any bat on the slate. The Rockies are more expensive overall, but Brenton Doyle ($3,000) is a fine one-off to consider outside of stacks.
- The Twins’ stack gets a bit pricier with the returns of Buxton and Polanco, but DK has been awfully slow to come around on Kirilloff ($2,700), Wallner ($2,100), Kepler ($2,800), Julien ($3,300), and Taylor ($2,000). As a result, I expect Twins/A’s combos to be awfully popular tonight alongside expensive pitching.
- We’d be remiss to ignore the Dodgers, who will take their swings against the middling Brandon Williamson at home. LA added a couple of useful right-handed bats in Amed Rosario ($3,900) and Enrique Hernandez ($2,800) in trades earlier in the week, which will make the stack as a whole even more formidable against lefties. Freddie Freeman (18% barrels), Mookie Betts (16%), and Chris Taylor (18%) have absolutely clubbed LHBs, while JD Martinez and Will Smith have impressive track records.
- Seattle is a decent value stack on the road against Tommy Henry, a mediocre lefty. Everyone in the lineup other than Julio Rodriguez is less than $4,000 on DK, with Dylan Moore ($2,200) and Jose Caballero ($2,300) popping as a couple of viable punts in any stack. Eugenio Suarez ($3,200) and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300) are both affordable for the power upside they bring from the right side of the plate.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!