MLB DFS Slate Preview: Opening Day, March 30
Erik Wardenburg previews the Opening Day slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Baseball is back! We have a fantastic 11-game slate starting at 1:05 PM ET to begin the season. And like most opening days, Thursday’s MLB DFS picks are loaded with top-tier pitching.
FanDuel has priced up most of the aces at $10k or higher, while DraftKings has no SP above $9,600, along with some big-time errors in pricing like Shane McClanahan at $7,700 (almost $3k cheaper than FD). There are plenty of other aces on DK for under $8k, like Manoah, Snell, Webb, and Greene, so it should be no problem fitting in a bunch of expensive bats. FD does have some solid value pitching options, but if you want a higher-priced SP, you’re going to need at least a couple value bats.
With all of this elite pitching, the offenses I’m targeting are much narrower compared to most days. Furthermore, cash games will likely see a higher stack rate compared to later days in the year, when more offenses are facing mediocre pitching and you want a couple of guys from a bunch of different offenses. Let’s get into the games…and good luck this season!
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s important to get a feel for how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can get a better idea if we want to target certain games that have ideal hitting conditions, for example, as well as possibly avoid games that are at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- COL/SDP is the only game with rain concerns so if you’re between a couple bats or an SP from this game, I’d side towards players in completely safe rain games.
- The Northeast games will be cold and breezy, while the Midwest games will have mild temps with MIN/KC seeing 15-20 MPH wind blowing out to left. West coast games should be neutral as far as temps and wind.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always be on the lookout for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit that extra one or two players into our lineup who are more likely to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes for Opening Day. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent from day to day, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- DJ LeMahieu has been confirmed as the leadoff man for the Yankees on Opening Day, while some unknowns still are who starts between Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Cabrera, as well as where in the order Anthony Volpe will hit.
- Boston will likely see a variety of leadoff bats throughout the season, but Alex Verdugo should get the first crack based on their last spring training lineup. The lineup they go with on Opening Day should be their usual against righties for a while.
- The Tigers could go with Vierling or Baez at leadoff against lefties, while Riley Greene should hit in the top three regardless of the opposing SP’s handedness. I’m also expecting a good amount of platooning, with Maton, Meadows, and Carpenter likely sitting against lefties. So look for Haase, Kreidler, and Vierling to be in the lineup regularly against lefties, like on Opening Day.
- With Rhys Hoskins out for the year, Darick Hall will get the majority of the 1B starts against righties and likely hit cleanup, while Alec Bohm will also get some starts at 1B and will likely hit higher than 7th when they face lefties. This should be a pretty steady lineup all season other than some platoons with Cave, Marsh, and possibly Hall, with righties like Harrison, Sosa, and Guthrie.
- Joey Votto is opening the year on the IL, so Wil Myers and Jason Vosler will get the majority of the 1B playing time. We should see either Jake Fraley or Terry Friedl hit 2nd against righties.
- TOR and STL should look similar against righties most of the season, with Biggio and Merrifield likely switching in and out at 2B, along with Jansen and Kirk at C. At the same time, Jordan Walker and Dylan Carlson will compete for starts against righties, as both will almost certainly be in there against lefties.
- For Colorado, Jurickson Profar has a chance to be in the lineup for Opening Day, as he got his visa and should be in San Diego for the season opener. And if he is available to play, look for him to hit leadoff right away. If Profar isn’t ready to play, I’d expect Yonathan Daza to slot into the leadoff spot against the lefty Snell.
- Fernando Tatis is suspended until April 20th, so guys like Kim, Grisham, and Azocar will see regular ABs until Tatis returns. Nelson Cruz and Matt Carpenter could open the year platooning against lefties and righties, although they could start with Cruz as the everyday DH until he goes on a cold streak and they give Carpenter more chances.
- Max Kepler will start the year at leadoff and Joey Gallo is hitting all the way down at 7th, so Kepler is a solid value play on both sites while Gallo is just a GPP flyer for me now. With Alex Kirilloff opening the season on IL, Trevor Larnach should be a regular starter, especially against righties, and will hit cleanup on opening day making him a great value option.
- The Royals will mix up their leadoff hitter based on the opposing SP and how the rest of their lineup looks on any given day, but Melendez and Witt should get most of those starts and handle the 1-2 ABs regularly.
- My favorite stacks for opening day are the Braves, Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, Padres, and Brewers in that order. The Twins, Yankees, and Rays are some lower-owned stacks I don’t mind taking shots on in GPPs.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For some insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, be sure to read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Hunter Greene ($9,100) is looking like an excellent value at SP. He has a top five projected ceiling, is just the 13th most expensive pitcher, and draws a nice matchup against a Pittsburgh lineup who should be one of the weaker offenses on Opening Day. The Reds park is more hitter friendly than pitcher friendly, so I can’t blame anyone who would rather pay an extra $1k+ for another ace in a better pitcher’s park. But if you would rather spend up on more big bats in any format, Greene is my favorite SP for under $10k. He could definitely put up the highest SP score of anyone on Opening Day.
- From the $10k+ SPs, Max Scherzer ($10,700) would be my pick, as the Marlins lineup doesn’t scare me as much as some other offenses out there today. On top of that, Scherzer should have a longer leash on Opening Day than someone like deGrom.
- When looking at the extreme value SPs, I don’t mind taking a shot on Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,300), Mitch Keller ($7,400), or even German Marquez ($7,100) in GPPs.
- ATL is my top stack against Patrick Corbin. This is probably the cheapest their big bats will be all season, as even Ronald Acuna ($3,900) is under $4k. So he’s easily the first guy I’m starting my cash game lineup with. The 2B position isn’t very deep on Opening Day, so Ozzie Albies ($3,500) is another lock for me at that price. Austin Riley ($3,600) is also just too cheap and shouldn’t be the 5th most expensive 3B. Since I’m already locking in three Braves, I might as well go for the full stack. So depending on salary available, I will do my best to fit in Matt Olson ($3,700). But if I need the savings, Sean Murphy ($2,900) or Marcell Ozuna ($2,500) both make for fine value options to complete the stack.
- I also like having some Red Sox exposure in cash games at home against Gibson. For the price, Masataka Yoshida ($2,900) and Adam Duvall ($2,400), likely hitting in the 4 and 5 spots, are my favorite targets. Both should have some nice opportunities for RBIs and are probably the likeliest to homer for Boston besides Devers.
- Brandon Belt ($2,000), Trevor Larnach ($2,200), and Max Kepler ($2,500) are popping as strong P/$ plays. I prefer the two Twins bats if you do need someone in that price range. Belt has been scuffling in spring training with no extra-base hits, and he is an early pinch-hit candidate if the Cardinals bring a lefty in.
- Some other value bats that I’m liking a lot are Carlos Correa ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($2,900), and Jake Cronenworth ($3,000).
- It should be no problem fitting in two top SPs on Opening Day, as none are priced above $9,600. And the most expensive option, Jacob deGrom, will be on a 75-pitch limit. So I won’t target him in cash games. I already mentioned him in the intro, but Shane McClanahan ($7,700) is an absolute steal at that price. He should be at least above $8k, if not $9k, for someone with his upside against Detroit. Hunter Greene ($7,400) also remains a top play for the price given his strikeout upside and matchup with Pittsburgh.
- Unlike on FanDuel, we have to use a catcher on DraftKings, and Sean Murphy ($3,400) is by far my favorite option at that price to complement the Atlanta stack I will be going heavy on. William Contreras ($3,600) or Alejandro Kirk ($3,700) would be my next favorite P/$ choices if you wanted a lower-owned catcher in your main build.
- We can use up to five hitters from one team on DK, compared to a max of four on FD. So I will be taking advantage of that and going with Murphy ($3,400), Acuna ($5,700), Riley ($4,600), Albies ($3,900), and either Olson ($4,200) or Ozuna ($2,900) depending on how much salary I need elsewhere.
- I liked Correa on FD for $3k but not for $5k on DK. So at SS, I like either Bo Bichette ($4,600) or Gunnar Henderson ($4,000). And if you really want to go super cheap, Anthony Volpe ($2,500) is a solid option who has been raking in spring training. If you go with Bichette, I like using George Springer ($4,900) too for a mini Jays stack.
- Yoshida ($4,400) and Duvall ($3,600) remain my favorite P/$ bats from Boston, and I have to mention Triston Casas ($2,900) as a value option too. He should go much lower owned than guys like Guerrero and Olson.
- Other extreme value to consider includes Max Kepler ($3,400), Trevor Larnach ($2,500), Garrett Mitchell ($2,100), Trent Grisham ($2,500), and Jordan Walker ($2,000).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck on Opening Day!