MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/10/2022
I hope you started drinking coffee early as we have a massive 15-game main slate today but thankfully weather shouldn’t be much of a concern.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
I’m expecting no rain issues today but CIN/STL has a slight chance of a delay at any point as light to moderate rain could fall over the stadium so it just depends how heavy the rain is otherwise they likely play through it. TOR/DET & BAL/KCR have very slim chances of rain causing a delay but they’re worth mentioning as games to double check closer to lock.
Pretty much every game has less than 9mph wind going in any direction with LAD/SFG seeing the most at ~10mph out to center and NYM/LAA is close behind at ~8mph out to left-center. TOR/DET has ~6mph winds blowing in from right which should help the pitchers and the dome games today are MIA/HOU & BOS/SEA.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TBR/MIN are +28.2% while total runs for CHC/NYY are +7.9%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Nelson Cruz was a late scratch last night but is back in the lineup today and Mike Trout remains out but Anthony Rendon is back from the IL and starting at 3B tonight. Tyler Stephenson was hit by a pitch on his thumb leading to a fracture so he’ll be out indefinitely with Aramis Garcia getting most of the C starts for CIN. Starling Marte and Pete Alonso are also pretty big question marks today as both look to have avoided the IL but it seems likely they’ll need another game or two off and if so look for Mark Canha and J.D. Davis to continue to hit in the top half of the order. The Red Sox are staggering rest days for a bunch of guys as Devers, Bogaerts, and Story all recently got a day off so we could see someone like Martinez or Verdugo get a day off but with Hernandez on the IL look for Christian Arroyo to be the every day leadoff man and he’s a very strong value play today. Max Muncy returned yesterday and went off with an HR and a double and is one of my favorite value plays on FD today at $2,900. Mike Zunino just went on the IL so Mejia should get most of the C starts for TBR and Dylan Carlson is off the IL for STL and should be in there today while Nootbaar was DFA’d and Robbie Grossman is off the IL while Daz Cameron is now on the IL.
The Yankees are my favorite stack today at home against the lefty Miley but this is more of a FD stack for me as Judge and Stanton are both $6k+ on DK but on FD Stanton, Donaldson, and Torres are all too cheap and a great mini-stack. The Blue Jays are my next favorite stack but again they are more stackable on FD with Teoscar Hernandez my favorite play for the price at just $2,800. Erick Fedde has been shelled over his last two starts with 10 ER and just 1 strikeout so the Brewers are one of my favorite stacks today and for the price on both DK and FD they are probably my favorite stack for the price especially on DK where guys like Yelich, Tellez, Urias, and McCutchen are all $4k or less and the entire lineup is $3.2k or less on FD. Some other stacks I like taking a shot on today include the White Sox, Rangers, Orioles, Royals, Astros, Padres, and Red Sox.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel there are a ton of excellent plays for under $3,500 so we should have no problem fitting in any pitcher we want today. Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500) is one of my favorite bats of the day and his teammate Josh Donaldson is way too cheap at $2,900 and if he’s in the lineup today Gleyber Torres has a great price of $3,000. Joey Votto is also one of my favorite plays of the day at just $3,200 which is a crazy low price for a guy on an 8-game hitting streak with 7 extra-base hits during that span and for cheap Blue Jays exposure look no further than Teoscar Hernanez at just $2,800. I’m basically just laying out my cash game lineup here but Max Muncy ($2,900) and Christian Yelich ($3,200) are too cheap to fade for me especially if Yelich continues to hit leadoff with Wong dealing with his calf injury and at SS I really like the price of Bobby Witt ($3,400) with power and SB upside and the platoon advantage today. If you need even more value then Christian Arroyo for $2,100 hitting leadoff will really let you make any lineup you want to especially because he’s 2B/3B/OF eligible. Some other value FD bats I like today include Carlos Santana ($2,200), Yoan Moncada ($2,500), Yasmani Grandal ($2,300), J.D. Davis ($2,300), Rowdy Tellez ($3,000), Willy Adames ($3,000), and TJ Friedl ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings the Yankees and Blue Jays are priced up big time so I’ll pick and choose their bats depending on positional needs but the Brewers are all way too cheap and I will look to them for my core guys. I love the prices of Christian Yelich ($4,000), Rowdy Tellez ($3,600), Luis Urias ($3,400), and Andrew McCutchen ($3,100) and Willy Adames is still pretty affordable at ($4,400) if you want the full stack. Joey Votto at $3,900 will probably be my choice at 1B over Tellez as Votto should be at least $4,500 with how hot he is at the plate and I expect this is the last chance we can get him for under $4k for a long time. For extreme value I really like Christian Arroyo ($2,800), TJ Friedl ($2,000), and Carlos Santana ($2,200) and although the matchup isn’t the best Lane Thomas is still super cheap at $2,800 likely hitting 1st or 2nd today against the lefty Ashby. More DK bats that I’m considering today are Kole Calhoun ($3,400), Harold Ramirez ($2,400), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,300), Jesus Sanchez ($3,600), J.D. Davis ($2,900), Jo Adell ($2,300), Vidal Brujan ($2,200), Jurickson Profar ($3,400), and Luke Voit ($2,600).
I’m currently leaning Joe Musgrove as the SP1 on both sites today but Luis Severino is right with him for highest upside and I will probably try to fit both on DK. Aaron Ashby has been great over his last two starts with 21 total strikeouts and is a very strong play at just $8,600 on both sites and Jose Berrios might make it in as my SP2 on DK as he’s just $7,500 in a nice matchup with Detroit coming off a 13 strikeout gem in his last start. For GPPs I like taking shots on Roansy Contreras, Triston McKenzie, Devin Smeltzer, Luis Garcia, Walker Buehler, and Luis Castillo.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn