MLB First Look: Saturday, September 30th
The MLB First Look, complete with sortable odds, a pitcher breakdown, and team offense rankings, will help you get an early start on the upcoming slate.
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MLB Schedule & Vegas Lines
| Away | Pitcher | Home | Pitcher | Vegas Line | Run Total | Ballpark | LHB Rating | RHB Rating | Time (ET) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | Lance McCullers – R | at | Boston Red Sox | Drew Pomeranz – L | BOS-102 | 8.5 | Fenway Park | 81 | 90 | 1:05 PM |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Marcus Stroman – R | at | New York Yankees | CC Sabathia – L | NYY-155 | 8.5 | Yankee Stadium | 100 | 98 | 1:05 PM |
| Cincinnati Reds | Jackson Stephens – R | at | Chicago Cubs | Jon Lester – L | CHC-190 | 8.0 | Wrigley Field | 79 | 90 | 4:05 PM |
| San Diego Padres | Jhoulys Chacin – R | at | San Francisco Giants | Matt Cain – R | SF -100 | 8.5 | AT&T Park | 71 | 81 | 4:05 PM |
| Milwaukee Brewers | Junior Guerra – R | at | St. Louis Cardinals | Luke Weaver – R | STL-150 | 8.5 | Busch Stadium | 88 | 81 | 4:15 PM |
| Baltimore Orioles | Miguel Castro – R | at | Tampa Bay Rays | Chris Archer – R | TB -175 | 8.5 | Tropicana Field | 82 | 87 | 6:10 PM |
| New York Mets | Seth Lugo – R | at | Philadelphia Phillies | Henderson Alvarez – R | PHI-125 | 9.0 | Citizens Bank Park | 96 | 93 | 7:05 PM |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Jameson Taillon – R | at | Washington Nationals | Max Scherzer – R | WAS-240 | 7.0 | Nationals Park | 84 | 92 | 7:05 PM |
| Atlanta Braves | Lucas Sims – R | at | Miami Marlins | Odrisamer Despaigne – R | MIA-120 | 9.0 | Marlins Park | 82 | 82 | 7:10 PM |
| Chicago White Sox | Carson Fulmer – R | at | Cleveland Indians | Corey Kluber – R | CLE-320 | 7.0 | Progressive Field | 96 | 86 | 7:10 PM |
| Detroit Tigers | Buck Farmer – R | at | Minnesota Twins | Aaron Slegers – R | MIN-155 | 9.0 | Target Field | 84 | 93 | 7:10 PM |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Taijuan Walker – R | at | Kansas City Royals | Jake Junis – R | KC -102 | 9.0 | Kauffman Stadium | 80 | 85 | 7:15 PM |
| Oakland Athletics | Daniel Gossett – R | at | Texas Rangers | Andrew Cashner – R | TEX-128 | 10.5 | Rangers Ballpark | 92 | 91 | 8:05 PM |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | Clayton Kershaw – L | at | Colorado Rockies | German Marquez – R | LAD-165 | 9.5 | Coors Field | 94 | 100 | 8:10 PM |
| Seattle Mariners | Andrew Moore – R | at | LA Angels of Anaheim | Ricky Nolasco – R | LAA-133 | 9.0 | Angel Stadium | 86 | 89 | 9:07 PM |
Starting Pitchers
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | Opp. K% | Line | FD | DK | FDRFT | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | HC% | HR/FB | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | CLE | CWS | 23.5% | -320 | $12,000 | $13,300 | $25,800 | 2.66 | 2.27 | 34.6% | 4.8% | 15.8% | 43.8% | 29.1% | 13.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | PIT | 19.3% | -240 | $10,800 | $12,500 | $24,400 | 2.99 | 2.55 | 34.2% | 7.0% | 15.5% | 36.8% | 26.8% | 11.0% | 7:05 PM |
| Clayton Kershaw | LAD | at COL | 23.4% | -165 | $9,600 | $11,400 | $22,000 | 3.01 | 2.21 | 30.3% | 4.5% | 14.2% | 47.8% | 27.2% | 15.5% | 8:10 PM |
| Luke Weaver | STL | MIL | 25.6% | -150 | $9,400 | $9,600 | N/A | 3.00 | 3.23 | 30.2% | 5.8% | 10.0% | 51.8% | 24.5% | 15.8% | 4:15 PM |
| Chris Archer | TB | BAL | 22.5% | -175 | $9,300 | $9,900 | N/A | 3.43 | 4.18 | 29.2% | 7.0% | 13.3% | 42.3% | 39.5% | 14.6% | 6:10 PM |
| Jon Lester | CHC | CIN | 21.9% | -190 | $8,500 | $9,200 | N/A | 4.13 | 4.46 | 23.2% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 46.6% | 28.2% | 16.3% | 4:05 PM |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | HOU | 16.6% | -102 | $8,000 | $9,000 | N/A | 4.29 | 3.38 | 23.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 42.4% | 32.7% | 11.4% | 1:05 PM |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | at NYY | 21.7% | 155 | $7,900 | $9,800 | N/A | 3.83 | 3.06 | 19.8% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 62.4% | 31.1% | 17.4% | 1:05 PM |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | at KC | 19.5% | 102 | $7,800 | $8,500 | $16,500 | 4.48 | 3.54 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 48.6% | 33.1% | 11.5% | 7:15 PM |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | TOR | 21.9% | -155 | $7,600 | $8,300 | N/A | 4.52 | 3.84 | 18.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 50.5% | 27.1% | 17.6% | 1:05 PM |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | at BOS | 19.5% | 102 | $7,100 | $7,400 | N/A | 3.42 | 4.01 | 25.7% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 61.6% | 27.5% | 13.1% | 1:05 PM |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | at WAS | 21.2% | 240 | $7,100 | $7,300 | $14,400 | 4.23 | 4.62 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 47.9% | 30.1% | 10.8% | 7:05 PM |
| Lucas Sims | ATL | at MIA | 20.8% | 120 | $6,800 | $6,700 | $13,200 | 4.84 | 4.85 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 37.3% | 28.9% | 11.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SD | at SF | 19.7% | -100 | $6,700 | $8,400 | N/A | 4.66 | 3.98 | 19.9% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 49.0% | 28.3% | 11.7% | 4:05 PM |
| Jake Junis | KC | ARI | 23.3% | -102 | $6,700 | $7,600 | $15,200 | 4.49 | 4.39 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 39.5% | 36.2% | 12.0% | 7:15 PM |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | OAK | 24.4% | -128 | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,800 | 5.51 | 3.42 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 48.7% | 28.8% | 9.0% | 8:05 PM |
| German Marquez | COL | LAD | 22.5% | 165 | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 4.25 | 4.38 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 44.5% | 34.9% | 15.3% | 8:10 PM |
| Ricky Nolasco | LAA | SEA | 20.8% | -133 | $6,200 | $5,700 | $11,400 | 4.73 | 5.02 | 18.4% | 7.5% | 10.9% | 40.6% | 37.3% | 15.8% | 9:07 PM |
| Jackson Stephens | CIN | at CHC | 22.5% | 190 | $6,100 | $6,400 | N/A | 4.60 | 3.86 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 35.6% | 30.0% | 18.5% | 4:05 PM |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | at PHI | 23.7% | 125 | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 4.36 | 4.72 | 19.4% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 42.6% | 34.5% | 11.8% | 7:05 PM |
| Aaron Slegers | MIN | DET | 22.0% | -155 | $6,000 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 5.87 | 7.36 | 13.3% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 41.2% | 55.9% | 20.0% | 7:10 PM |
| Matt Cain | SF | SD | 25.4% | 100 | $5,900 | $6,800 | N/A | 5.51 | 5.66 | 12.9% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 42.1% | 32.5% | 12.6% | 4:05 PM |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | MIA | ATL | 19.3% | -120 | $5,900 | $6,000 | $12,000 | 5.98 | 4.21 | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.6% | 37.6% | 29.7% | 4.3% | 7:10 PM |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | at TEX | 24.4% | 128 | $5,800 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 4.70 | 5.82 | 17.9% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 43.6% | 32.6% | 20.8% | 8:05 PM |
| Carson Fulmer | CWS | at CLE | 19.1% | 320 | $5,700 | $6,100 | $12,000 | 5.59 | 4.42 | 21.0% | 13.6% | 9.3% | 21.6% | 23.1% | 12.9% | 7:10 PM |
| Miguel Castro | BAL | at TB | 24.9% | 175 | $5,600 | $5,400 | N/A | 5.20 | 3.29 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 48.9% | 26.4% | 10.9% | 6:10 PM |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | at LAA | 19.7% | 133 | $5,600 | $5,600 | $11,200 | 5.38 | 5.34 | 12.8% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 28.7% | 32.5% | 14.1% | 9:07 PM |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | at STL | 21.6% | 150 | $5,500 | $7,700 | N/A | 5.32 | 4.90 | 20.5% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 33.7% | 33.7% | 21.4% | 4:15 PM |
| Buck Farmer | DET | at MIN | 21.6% | 155 | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 4.36 | 7.33 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 11.7% | 31.5% | 29.0% | 14.8% | 7:10 PM |
| Henderson Alvarez | PHI | NYM | 19.9% | -125 | $5,500 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 5.73 | 3.60 | 13.6% | 11.4% | 5.2% | 45.5% | 21.2% | 18.2% | 7:05 PM |
Note: All statistics in the pitching table are from the 2017 season.
Offenses
| Offense | IRT | RPG | +/- | Opp. Pitcher | L/R | P vs. LHB | P vs. RHB | T-wOBA | T-ISO | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 4.37 | 5.09 | -0.72 | Clayton Kershaw | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.244 | 0.341 | 0.186 | 8:10 PM |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.13 | 4.77 | 0.36 | German Marquez | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.351 | 0.327 | 0.188 | 8:10 PM |
| Cleveland Indians | 4.76 | 5.06 | -0.29 | Carson Fulmer | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.266 | 0.334 | 0.194 | 7:10 PM |
| New York Yankees | 4.57 | 5.35 | -0.78 | Marcus Stroman | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.324 | 0.339 | 0.189 | 1:05 PM |
| Houston Astros | 4.23 | 5.57 | -1.34 | Drew Pomeranz | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.304 | 0.348 | 0.192 | 1:05 PM |
| Boston Red Sox | 4.27 | 4.87 | -0.60 | Lance McCullers | RIGHT | 0.264 | 0.331 | 0.315 | 0.153 | 1:05 PM |
| Minnesota Twins | 4.82 | 5.04 | -0.22 | Buck Farmer | RIGHT | 0.392 | 0.342 | 0.333 | 0.185 | 7:10 PM |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 4.68 | 4.26 | 0.43 | Miguel Castro | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.243 | 0.319 | 0.189 | 6:10 PM |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 3.96 | 4.50 | -0.54 | Luke Weaver | RIGHT | 0.238 | 0.318 | 0.322 | 0.186 | 4:15 PM |
| Baltimore Orioles | 3.82 | 4.65 | -0.84 | Chris Archer | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.290 | 0.319 | 0.177 | 6:10 PM |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 4.54 | 4.72 | -0.18 | Junior Guerra | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.355 | 0.326 | 0.166 | 4:15 PM |
| Detroit Tigers | 4.18 | 4.58 | -0.40 | Aaron Slegers | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.434 | 0.313 | 0.154 | 7:10 PM |
| Chicago Cubs | 4.52 | 5.08 | -0.56 | Jackson Stephens | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.260 | 0.332 | 0.189 | 4:05 PM |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3.93 | 4.34 | -0.41 | CC Sabathia | LEFT | 0.306 | 0.314 | 0.322 | 0.169 | 1:05 PM |
| Chicago White Sox | 2.24 | 4.42 | -2.18 | Corey Kluber | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.226 | 0.308 | 0.163 | 7:10 PM |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3.48 | 4.69 | -1.21 | Jon Lester | LEFT | 0.245 | 0.345 | 0.316 | 0.175 | 4:05 PM |
| Texas Rangers | 5.42 | 4.93 | 0.48 | Daniel Gossett | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.378 | 0.321 | 0.194 | 8:05 PM |
| Oakland Athletics | 5.08 | 4.57 | 0.51 | Andrew Cashner | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.301 | 0.329 | 0.202 | 8:05 PM |
| LA Angels of Anaheim | 4.69 | 4.36 | 0.33 | Andrew Moore | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.310 | 0.315 | 0.169 | 9:07 PM |
| Miami Marlins | 4.62 | 4.76 | -0.14 | Lucas Sims | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.337 | 0.326 | 0.172 | 7:10 PM |
| Washington Nationals | 4.31 | 5.06 | -0.75 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.326 | 0.329 | 0.186 | 7:05 PM |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 4.48 | 4.99 | -0.51 | Jake Junis | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.311 | 0.334 | 0.195 | 7:15 PM |
| Kansas City Royals | 4.52 | 4.36 | 0.15 | Taijuan Walker | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.313 | 0.313 | 0.160 | 7:15 PM |
| Atlanta Braves | 4.38 | 4.51 | -0.13 | Odrisamer Despaigne | RIGHT | 0.357 | 0.252 | 0.311 | 0.146 | 7:10 PM |
| Seattle Mariners | 4.31 | 4.64 | -0.33 | Ricky Nolasco | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.375 | 0.324 | 0.168 | 9:07 PM |
| San Diego Padres | 4.26 | 3.75 | 0.50 | Matt Cain | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.361 | 0.299 | 0.161 | 4:05 PM |
| San Francisco Giants | 4.24 | 3.92 | 0.32 | Jhoulys Chacin | RIGHT | 0.342 | 0.267 | 0.296 | 0.137 | 4:05 PM |
| New York Mets | 4.35 | 4.57 | -0.21 | Henderson Alvarez | RIGHT | 0.280 | 0.353 | 0.324 | 0.186 | 7:05 PM |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 4.65 | 4.21 | 0.44 | Seth Lugo | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.319 | 0.314 | 0.158 | 7:05 PM |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 2.69 | 4.10 | -1.41 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.299 | 0.191 | 0.305 | 0.143 | 7:05 PM |
Note: All statistics in the team offense table are from the 2017, season with the exception of the pitcher splits by handedness. They are from the last two seasons combined.
First Look Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| LHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
| RHB Rating | The ballpark rating for left-handed hitters |
| Opp. K% | Strikeout rate of the opposing offense against the handedness of the pitcher |
| SIERA | Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average – A good predictor of future ERA |
| ERA | Earned Run Average |
| K% | Percentage of batters a pitcher strikes out |
| BB% | Percentage of batters that a pitcher walks |
| SS% | Swinging Strike Percentage |
| GB% | Ground Ball Percentage |
| HC% | Hard Contact Percentage |
| HR/FB | Percentage of fly balls a pitcher gives up a home run |
| IRT | Implied run total based on the Vegas line and over/under |
| RPG | Average runs scored per game |
| +/- | The difference between a team’s implied run total and their average runs scored per game |
| P vs. LHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to left-handed hitters |
| P vs. RHB | The wOBA a pitcher allows to right-handed hitters |
| T-wOBA | A team’s wOBA vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |
| T-ISO | A team’s ISO vs. the handedness of the pitcher they are facing |