MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 14th


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


Toronto at Cleveland – Friday 8:05 PM ET

Toronto Cleveland
Article Image Marco Estrada Article Image Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -139 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.266 11 26.7% 22.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.284 9 28.4% 23.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.293 12 36.4% 23.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.266 13 26.8% 29.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,200
FPPG: 32.0 FPPG: 17.3
Pitcher Rating: 46.8 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 95.3 4.50 3.98 25.0% 11.0% 11.5% 27.1% 56.5% 24.1%
2016 29 98.0 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 10.9% 33.5% 48.2% 31.3%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274

Estrada has been excellent in the postseason, both in his first start this year and in his seven other career appearances. In Game 1 against the Rangers (in Texas), he struck out six batters while allowing a single earned run in eight and a third innings of work. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that relies on soft contact and pop-ups to be successful. While I could certainly see him having another quality outing, he is my least favorite of the four pitchers in this slate. The Indians were one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching during the regular season and they are always a force to be reckoned with at home.

Corey Kluber
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,900 Salary: $10,300
FPPG: 40.9 FPPG: 23.1
Pitcher Rating: 87.1 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 97.8 3.58 3.45 28.8% 8.3% 14.1% 32.9% 49.4% 25.3%
2016 32 99.7 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 12.6% 44.5% 36.3% 27.6%
2015 32 102.3 2.98 3.49 27.7% 5.1% 12.9% 42.4% 35.9% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273

Kluber was tremendous in his first start of the postseason. In Game 2 against the Red Sox, he struck out seven batters in seven scoreless innings of work. He has always pitched well at home and he finished the season on a high note. Even though the Blue Jays have been red-hot in the postseason, their offense did struggle away from home this year. They also had the seventh highest team strikeout rate against righties during the regular season. The fact that Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed is a big boost for Kluber, who held righties to a ____ wOBA. I slightly prefer Jon Lester in a better matchup, but Kluber is certainly in play.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the third lowest implied team total in the slate, but they are riding high after scoring 22 runs in a three-game sweep against the Rangers. They draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA during the regular season. We are to the point where we have to take hitters in bad spots though, so a complete fade of the Blue Jays may be out of the question.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.282 0.102 25.5% 0.353 OF $2,500 OF $3,300
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.405 0.272 41.0% 0.395 3B $3,700 3B $4,700
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.370 0.264 37.5% 0.349 1B $3,900 1B $4,000
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.220 41.0% 0.443 OF $3,300 OF $4,000
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.325 0.173 29.9% 0.283 C $2,600 C $3,100
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.326 0.196 34.5% 0.290 SS $2,700 SS $4,000
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.205 38.6% 0.270 OF $2,400 OF $3,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.291 0.104 25.4% 0.326 OF $2,200 OF $2,700
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.284 0.099 25.8% 0.314 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,400
Team Averages 0.331 0.182 33.2% 0.336

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians made quick work of the Red Sox in the ALDS, but now have to face the red-hot Blue Jays. The good news for Cleveland is that the starting rotation for Toronto is hittable. Marco Estrada was tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but if you look at the advanced numbers, they suggest that he was a bit lucky this season. On the year, he had a 4.64 xFIP when facing lefties and a 4.65 xFIP when facing righties. With the highest implied total on the board, we can load up on batters in this offense.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.388 0.285 39.5% 0.526 1B $3,300 1B $4,600
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.353 0.200 38.9% 0.333 2B $3,500 2B $4,500
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.139 26.8% 0.320 SS $3,200 SS $4,200
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.338 0.242 34.9% 0.178 1B $3,100 1B $3,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.146 25.5% 0.398 3B $3,200 3B/OF $4,100
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.333 0.156 28.1% 0.197 OF $2,700 OF $3,400
7 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.309 0.175 24.6% 0.381 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.378 0.225 40.3% 0.282 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.247 0.087 25.9% 0.307 C $2,100 C $2,500
Team Averages 0.339 0.184 31.6% 0.325

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, Coco Crisp

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – Saturday 8:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Chicago Cubs
Article Image Kenta Maeda Article Image Jon Lester
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -164 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.313 10 33.1% 19.2% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.237 3 30.3% 26.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.253 10 25.1% 30.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.272 18 25.8% 24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 30.1 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 70.1 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 84.0 3.75 4.03 24.8% 8.0% 10.9% 45.1% 28.0% 26.5%
2016 32 91.6 3.69 3.48 25.0% 7.0% 11.6% 43.9% 35.7% 29.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 3.22 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.74 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278

The Dodgers have yet to announce their starter for Game 1, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t Maeda. Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias all pitched in Game 5 against the Nationals on Thursday night. The Dodgers really don’t have any other options. While Maeda wasn’t great in his first career postseason start, he had a solid season overall with a 3.48 ERA and a strikeout rate of 25%. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog against the Cubs, who were ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Basically, the only pitching options that I am considering in this slate are the two playing at home.

Jon Lester
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $11,700
FPPG: 38.2 FPPG: 21.3
Pitcher Rating: 89.4 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 102.2 3.08 1.60 25.8% 3.9% 10.8% 55.3% 30.6% 18.2%
2016 32 98.8 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 10.3% 46.9% 32.8% 26.6%
2015 32 99.5 3.19 3.34 25.0% 5.7% 10.4% 48.9% 29.3% 29.0%

Home (2015-16):ERA: 2.76 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Away (2015-16):ERA: 3.06 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Lester had another terrific season, posting a 2.44 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8% in 32 starts. He threw eight shutout innings against the Giants in his first start of the postseason and he has an excellent track record in the month of October. Better yet, he draws the best possible matchup and he gets to pitch at home. During the regular season, the Dodgers were ranked dead last in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. It’s strange that they have made it this far without being able to hit lefties. Lester is my favorite play in the slate and he will be anchoring my cash and GPP lineups.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers don’t have the best lineup to attack Jon Lester. Their best hitters are left-handed and they don’t really have a lot of speed to take advantage of his vulnerability against stolen bases. During the regular season, Lester held both left and right-handed hitters under a .272 wOBA. If you are targeting any hitters from the Dodgers, make sure that they are capable of stealing bases, as that is the only exploitable part of this matchup.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.285 0.058 30.8% 0.136 2B $2,600 2B/OF $2,700
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.311 0.163 40.0% 0.277 SS $3,500 SS $3,800
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.283 0.128 38.6% 0.370 3B $3,400 3B $3,600
4 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.333 0.210 28.7% 0.381 OF $2,500 OF $3,100
5 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.268 0.065 23.6% 0.335 1B $2,700 1B $3,000
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.347 0.171 35.7% 0.435 C $2,700 C $2,800
7 Charlie Culberson RIGHT 0.321 0.104 27.5% 0.425 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,200
8 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.222 0.094 25.0% 0.446 OF $2,900 OF $3,500
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.135 0.000 16.7% 0.220 P $9,200 P $7,700
Team Averages 0.278 0.110 29.6% 0.336

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs came through with some incredibly clutch hits in Game 4 of the NLDS and now they turn their attention to the Dodgers and the NLCS. The Cubs come into this game with the second highest implied team total in the slate, but it’s only a difference of 0.11 runs. They draw a decent matchup against Kenta Maeda, who looked a bit out of his element in his first career postseason start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.363 0.165 28.8% 0.455 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.382 0.239 40.2% 0.331 3B $3,700 3B/OF $5,100
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.404 0.273 38.6% 0.346 1B $3,800 1B $4,800
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 0.182 32.9% 0.495 2B $2,900 2B $4,700
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.306 0.155 28.5% 0.253 SS $2,300 SS $3,400
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.287 0.100 27.1% 0.336 OF $2,600 OF $3,300
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.144 28.4% 0.366 SS $2,700 2B/3B $4,000
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.291 0.204 34.2% 0.321 C $2,200 C $3,200
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.140 0.043 24.4% 0.351 P $10,100 P $11,700
Team Averages 0.314 0.167 31.5% 0.362

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious