MLB Grind Down: Friday, October 14th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Toronto at Cleveland – Friday 8:05 PM ET
Toronto | Cleveland | ||||||||
Marco Estrada | Corey Kluber | ||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
CLE -139 | 7.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.266 | 11 | 26.7% | 22.5% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.284 | 9 | 28.4% | 23.4% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.293 | 12 | 36.4% | 23.2% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.266 | 13 | 26.8% | 29.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Marco Estrada | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $8,200 | |||||||
FPPG: | 32.0 | FPPG: | 17.3 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 46.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 6 | 95.3 | 4.50 | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 27.1% | 56.5% | 24.1% |
2016 | 29 | 98.0 | 4.35 | 3.48 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 33.5% | 48.2% | 31.3% |
2015 | 28 | 104.0 | 4.64 | 3.13 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 32.2% | 52.3% | 27.4% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274
Estrada has been excellent in the postseason, both in his first start this year and in his seven other career appearances. In Game 1 against the Rangers (in Texas), he struck out six batters while allowing a single earned run in eight and a third innings of work. He is an extreme fly ball pitcher that relies on soft contact and pop-ups to be successful. While I could certainly see him having another quality outing, he is my least favorite of the four pitchers in this slate. The Indians were one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching during the regular season and they are always a force to be reckoned with at home.
Corey Kluber | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $10,300 | |||||||
FPPG: | 40.9 | FPPG: | 23.1 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 87.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 97.8 | 3.58 | 3.45 | 28.8% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 32.9% | 49.4% | 25.3% |
2016 | 32 | 99.7 | 3.50 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 6.6% | 12.6% | 44.5% | 36.3% | 27.6% |
2015 | 32 | 102.3 | 2.98 | 3.49 | 27.7% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 42.4% | 35.9% | 27.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273
Kluber was tremendous in his first start of the postseason. In Game 2 against the Red Sox, he struck out seven batters in seven scoreless innings of work. He has always pitched well at home and he finished the season on a high note. Even though the Blue Jays have been red-hot in the postseason, their offense did struggle away from home this year. They also had the seventh highest team strikeout rate against righties during the regular season. The fact that Toronto’s best hitters are right-handed is a big boost for Kluber, who held righties to a ____ wOBA. I slightly prefer Jon Lester in a better matchup, but Kluber is certainly in play.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays have the third lowest implied team total in the slate, but they are riding high after scoring 22 runs in a three-game sweep against the Rangers. They draw a difficult matchup against Corey Kluber, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA during the regular season. We are to the point where we have to take hitters in bad spots though, so a complete fade of the Blue Jays may be out of the question.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.52 (3 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.282 | 0.102 | 25.5% | 0.353 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,300 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.272 | 41.0% | 0.395 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,700 |
3 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.264 | 37.5% | 0.349 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,000 |
4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.220 | 41.0% | 0.443 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,000 |
5 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.173 | 29.9% | 0.283 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 |
6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.196 | 34.5% | 0.290 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $4,000 |
7 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.205 | 38.6% | 0.270 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,000 |
8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.104 | 25.4% | 0.326 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $2,700 |
9 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.099 | 25.8% | 0.314 | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/3B | $2,400 |
Team Averages | — | 0.331 | 0.182 | 33.2% | 0.336 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cleveland
The Indians made quick work of the Red Sox in the ALDS, but now have to face the red-hot Blue Jays. The good news for Cleveland is that the starting rotation for Toronto is hittable. Marco Estrada was tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, but if you look at the advanced numbers, they suggest that he was a bit lucky this season. On the year, he had a 4.64 xFIP when facing lefties and a 4.65 xFIP when facing righties. With the highest implied total on the board, we can load up on batters in this offense.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.98 (1 of 4)
Projected Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.388 | 0.285 | 39.5% | 0.526 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,600 |
2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.200 | 38.9% | 0.333 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,500 |
3 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.139 | 26.8% | 0.320 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,200 |
4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.242 | 34.9% | 0.178 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,600 |
5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.146 | 25.5% | 0.398 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $4,100 |
6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.156 | 28.1% | 0.197 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,400 |
7 | Coco Crisp | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.175 | 24.6% | 0.381 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,500 |
8 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.225 | 40.3% | 0.282 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 |
9 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.087 | 25.9% | 0.307 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,500 |
Team Averages | — | 0.339 | 0.184 | 31.6% | 0.325 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez
Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall, Coco Crisp
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
LA Dodgers at Chicago Cubs – Saturday 8:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
Kenta Maeda | Jon Lester | ||||||||
RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
CHC -164 | 7.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.313 | 10 | 33.1% | 19.2% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.237 | 3 | 30.3% | 26.8% |
SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.253 | 10 | 25.1% | 30.2% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.272 | 18 | 25.8% | 24.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Kenta Maeda | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $7,700 | |||||||
FPPG: | 30.1 | FPPG: | 15.5 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 70.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 6 | 84.0 | 3.75 | 4.03 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 45.1% | 28.0% | 26.5% |
2016 | 32 | 91.6 | 3.69 | 3.48 | 25.0% | 7.0% | 11.6% | 43.9% | 35.7% | 29.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.22 — K%: 25.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.285
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.74 — K%: 24.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278
The Dodgers have yet to announce their starter for Game 1, but I would be shocked if it wasn’t Maeda. Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw, and Julio Urias all pitched in Game 5 against the Nationals on Thursday night. The Dodgers really don’t have any other options. While Maeda wasn’t great in his first career postseason start, he had a solid season overall with a 3.48 ERA and a strikeout rate of 25%. He comes into this game as a sizable underdog against the Cubs, who were ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching during the regular season. Basically, the only pitching options that I am considering in this slate are the two playing at home.
Jon Lester | ||||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | |||||||||
Salary: | $10,100 | Salary: | $11,700 | |||||||
FPPG: | 38.2 | FPPG: | 21.3 | |||||||
Pitcher Rating: | 89.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
L30 Days | 5 | 102.2 | 3.08 | 1.60 | 25.8% | 3.9% | 10.8% | 55.3% | 30.6% | 18.2% |
2016 | 32 | 98.8 | 3.61 | 2.44 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 10.3% | 46.9% | 32.8% | 26.6% |
2015 | 32 | 99.5 | 3.19 | 3.34 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 48.9% | 29.3% | 29.0% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.76 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 24.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277
Lester had another terrific season, posting a 2.44 ERA with a strikeout rate of 24.8% in 32 starts. He threw eight shutout innings against the Giants in his first start of the postseason and he has an excellent track record in the month of October. Better yet, he draws the best possible matchup and he gets to pitch at home. During the regular season, the Dodgers were ranked dead last in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. It’s strange that they have made it this far without being able to hit lefties. Lester is my favorite play in the slate and he will be anchoring my cash and GPP lineups.
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers don’t have the best lineup to attack Jon Lester. Their best hitters are left-handed and they don’t really have a lot of speed to take advantage of his vulnerability against stolen bases. During the regular season, Lester held both left and right-handed hitters under a .272 wOBA. If you are targeting any hitters from the Dodgers, make sure that they are capable of stealing bases, as that is the only exploitable part of this matchup.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.275 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.118 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 22.4% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.13 (4 of 4)
Confirmed Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.058 | 30.8% | 0.136 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/OF | $2,700 |
2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.163 | 40.0% | 0.277 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $3,800 |
3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.128 | 38.6% | 0.370 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,600 |
4 | Yasiel Puig | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.210 | 28.7% | 0.381 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,100 |
5 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.065 | 23.6% | 0.335 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,000 |
6 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.347 | 0.171 | 35.7% | 0.435 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,800 |
7 | Charlie Culberson | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.104 | 27.5% | 0.425 | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,200 |
8 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.222 | 0.094 | 25.0% | 0.446 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 |
9 | Kenta Maeda | RIGHT | 0.135 | 0.000 | 16.7% | 0.220 | P | $9,200 | P | $7,700 |
Team Averages | — | 0.278 | 0.110 | 29.6% | 0.336 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager, Yasiel Puig
Stackability – ORANGE
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs came through with some incredibly clutch hits in Game 4 of the NLDS and now they turn their attention to the Dodgers and the NLCS. The Cubs come into this game with the second highest implied team total in the slate, but it’s only a difference of 0.11 runs. They draw a decent matchup against Kenta Maeda, who looked a bit out of his element in his first career postseason start. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.169 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.5% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (2 of 4)
Confirmed Lineup
# | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.363 | 0.165 | 28.8% | 0.455 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 |
2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.239 | 40.2% | 0.331 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B/OF | $5,100 |
3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.404 | 0.273 | 38.6% | 0.346 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,800 |
4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.357 | 0.182 | 32.9% | 0.495 | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,700 |
5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.155 | 28.5% | 0.253 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,400 |
6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.287 | 0.100 | 27.1% | 0.336 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,300 |
7 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.144 | 28.4% | 0.366 | SS | $2,700 | 2B/3B | $4,000 |
8 | David Ross | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.204 | 34.2% | 0.321 | C | $2,200 | C | $3,200 |
9 | Jon Lester | LEFT | 0.140 | 0.043 | 24.4% | 0.351 | P | $10,100 | P | $11,700 |
Team Averages | — | 0.314 | 0.167 | 31.5% | 0.362 | — | — | — | — |