MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 20 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-20 19:56:50

Milwaukee at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					Colorado
			Kyle Lohse					Chad Bettis
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL (-124)					10.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.729	0.32	0.167	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.734	0.325	0.167
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.724	0.317	0.176	SP vs. Right	0.318	0	0.387	0.162
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Lohse

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 19)

You know the drill by now, do not pick pitchers in Coors Field. Combine that with the fact that Lohse has struggled this year and has a 1.81 HR/9 and you can really steer clear today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5,400 FD, $4,700 DK

Chad Bettis

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 25)

Even though he has not been terrible this year, Bettis pitching at Coors should not be on anyone’s radar. This game features the highest over/under of the day and Bettis is a small favorite. Avoid him. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.358

Analysis: Lind didn’t get the start last night in Coors due to the lefty being on the mound, but now gets a crack at the park and at Bettis today. While I like Lind a lot, all the main guys in the Brewers lineup are in play and it should be a popular stack this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

You know the drill. At Coors, all 1-6 hitters make for fine plays and are all in play for stacks/tournaments.

Colorado

Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.237 — OBP: 0.339

Analysis: Gonzalez has been on fire recently. Prior to his 0-4 last night, Gonzalez had hit a home run in three straight games and four in his last six. He has a great matchup today against Lohse who has a 1.81 HR/9 so far this year. I like CarGo to get hold of another one this afternoon and makes for one of my top OF in the slate.

Secondary Plays:

At Coors, all 1-6 hitters make for fine plays and are all in play for stacks/tournaments.

NY Mets at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST

NY Mets					Atlanta
			Noah Syndergaard					Williams Perez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-120)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.64	0.277	0.183	SP vs. Left	0.268	0.733	0.323	0.154
SP vs. Right	0.287	0.785	0.342	0.33	SP vs. Right	0.23	0.582	0.281	0.216
Batter Splits			NYM vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 4)

Syndergaard bounced back from his two rough starts to shut down a good Toronto offense and strikeout 11 batters in the process. He now has a 2.93 xFIP on the year to go along with an elite 26% K rate. He has an average matchup against the Braves who have a team wOBA of .315 against righties and a very low strikeout rate of 16.8%. With his price rising, he is a bit tougher to play, but is a small favorite in a game with a 7 total and makes a fine tournament play. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,300 FD, $9,100 DK

Williams Perez

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)

Perez has been a nice surprise for the Braves as a starter this year. He holds a xFIP of 4.09 on the season and has a decent 18.7% strikeout rate as well. He now gets a solid matchup against the Mets who are in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. Perez makes a good, cheap option tonight and not a bad choice as a SP2. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5,800 FD, $5,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

None

Secondary Plays:

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.368

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.247 — OBP: 0.374

Analysis: First, check that Freeman is in the lineup today as he was out yesterday with a wrist problem. If he is in the lineup, he makes my favorite play against the young Mets pitcher tonight as he has crushed righties for a wOBA close to .400 and an ISO of .247.

Secondary Plays:

Jace Peterson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.358

Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.072 — OBP: 0.421

Miami at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

Editor’s Note: Tom Koehler will not start for the Marlins today. Justin Nicolino will start in his place.

Miami					Cincinnati
			Tom Koehler					Anthony DeSclafani
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN (-125)					9
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0.698	0.311	0.193	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.753	0.33	0.16
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.702	0.313	0.178	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.675	0.294	0.175
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler

Editor’s Note: Tom Koehler will not start for the Marlins today. Justin Nicolino will start in his place.

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 6)

Koehler has been a bit up and down lately and has alternated giving up five earned runs with one earned run in his last four starts. Koehler now gets a matchup with a lefty-heavy Reds squad, which could bode for a tough start for Koehler as he has allowed a wOBA of .357 against lefties this year. Koehler is not on my radar in any formats tonight. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,500 DK

Anthony DeSclafani

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 22)

DeSclafani has been a pretty solid arm for the Reds for most of the season. He has not four quality starts in a row and has not allowed a long ball in his last six starts. He previously had a lot of trouble getting lefties out, but has dropped his wOBA against down to only .306. He is not a high strikeout pitcher (16.2%), which drops his value down a bit, but he has a solid matchup against the Marlins who are in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. He is not my favorite play, but could be used as a SP2 for a cheap price. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,200 FD, $6,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.298 — OBP: 0.338

Analysis: Stanton has not for average this year, but any guy that has 25 home runs and 60+ runs batted in is in play any time he takes the field. He has a good park to hit in as the game is at Great American and this game features a total of nine. Runs will be scored today in this matchup and Stanton should be in the thick of it.

Secondary Plays:

Christian Yelich
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.291 — ISO: 0.068 — OBP: 0.307

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.094 — OBP: 0.378

Cincinnati

Joey Votto
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.294 — OBP: 0.401

Analysis: As much as I like Todd Frazier, his price is through the roof as he has been playing extremely well recently. Votto actually sets up much better for today against Koehler as Koehler has allowed lefties a wOBA of .357 so far this year.

Secondary Plays:

Jay Bruce
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.328

Todd Frazier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.422 — ISO: 0.315 — OBP: 0.376

St. Louis at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM EST

St. Louis					Philadelphia
			John Lackey					Aaron Harang
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-183)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.730	0.320	17.0%	SP vs. Left	0.272	0.736	0.326	15.70%
SP vs. Right	0.260	0.701	0.308	21.4%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.675	0.298	19.90%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey

Philidelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.272 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)

Lackey has pitched well for the Cardinals so far this year. Other than the start in Coors, Lackey has not allowed more than three earned runs since the middle of April. He has 3.93 xFIP on the year and now wins the matchup of the day award as he gets a Phillies squad that has struggled mightily to score runs. He makes a good option for both cash and tournament formats tonight. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $7,900 DK

Aaron Harang

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 8)

After starting off the season well, Harang has really struggled recently. In the month of June, Harang has allowed 16 earned runs in three starts, including five home runs. His xFIP sits over a full run higher than his ERA at 4.57, which shows the regression was inevitable here. He does not strike out enough batters to be relevant with his recent struggles and can be avoided tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.189 — OBP: 0.356

Analysis: There are a few reasons to like Wong tonight. First, his salary across the industry is very low ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD). Next, he has a great matchup against Harang tonight who allows lefties a wOBA of .311 on the season. Lastly, he will be leading off in a lineup that is coming off an explosion last night and could carry that momentum today as they are big time favorites tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.383

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.220 — OBP: 0.426

Philadelphia

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.231 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.253

Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.087 — OBP: 0.340

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay					Cleveland
			Erasmo Ramirez					Corey Kluber
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-180)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.698	0.315	0.188	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.715	0.316	0.271
SP vs. Right	0.274	0	0.359	0.18	SP vs. Right	0.218	0.553	0.244	0.297
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 6)

Ramirez has been a decent starter for the Rays this season. He comes into this game with a 4.45 ERA to go along with his 4.17 xFIP. His K% of 19.4% is serviceable for DFS purposes, but he does have a tough matchup against the Indians who are have a number of solid lefties that could take him deep at anytime and has to face Kluber, which may make the win very tough to achieve. Erasmo is not on my radar tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,400 DK

Corey Kluber

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 24)

Kluber has not been at his sharpest over the last two starts. He will look to get back on track at home tonight and even with those last two starts, has the eighth highest strikeout rate in the league at 28.3%. This gives him some of the highest upside on the board any time he takes the mound. He has a matchup against a Rays squad that is ranked 22th in team wOBA against righties and strikeout at a high rate (21%). Kluber is expensive, but could easily be the highest scoring pitcher of the night slate. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $11,000 FD, $10,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Cleveland

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.448 — ISO: 0.177 — OBP: 0.480

Analysis: Kipnis’ salary has been at such a high point that it is difficult to fit him into your lineups, but his salary is up there for a reason. He has mashed right-handed pitching this year for a .448 wOBA and .177 ISO. The month of June has been solid for Kipnis as well as he has 19 hits in 55 at bats and is currently riding a 14-game hit streak.

Secondary Plays:

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.386

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.258 — OBP: 0.374

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