MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 27 - Page Two

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-27 18:56:43

Kansas City at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

Kansas City					Oakland
			Chris Young					Scott Kazmir
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-133)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.766	0.336	0.136	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.663	0.297	0.204
SP vs. Right	0.186	0.613	0.267	0.187	SP vs. Right	0.222	0.642	0.286	0.221
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Young

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 17.1% (Rank: 4)

Young has had a great start to the season for the Royals and has a 2.83 ERA to show for it. His xFIP of 4.14 does show some regression is in order and Young has shown that he can get it lit up for some big run totals. Over his last four starts, he has allowed six or more earned runs in two of them, while pitching shutouts in the other two. The low strikeout rate (16.1%) and the matchup against the Athletics make Young a tough start today. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,300 DK

Scott Kazmir

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 1)

Kazmir continues to truck along this year and has a 2.70 ERA over his first 14 starts in 2015. Against a different team, Kazmir’s 22.9% strikeout rate and his recent production would warrant for a viable fantasy starter, but the Royals just don’t allow for big games on a regular basis and it really drops his ceiling down due to their 15.9% strikeout rate and .322 wOBA against lefties. Kazmir makes for a solid tournament play today. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9,100 FD, $9,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

As many headaches as this Royals squad gives opposing pitchers this year, they are just not in the best spot today on the road against Scott Kazmir. That is not to say they don’t rough him up, but I don’t see it happening as Kazmir has allowed a sub .289 wOBA from both sides of the plate this year.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Loreno Cain
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.402

Alcides Escobar
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.262 — ISO: 0.056 — OBP: 0.242

Oakland

The Athletics are big favorites today against the Royals and they should be able to put up some runs today against Chris Young. Stephen Vogt is one of my favorite catchers on the slate as he has crushed right-handed pitching on the year and should be viewed as an elite play if the hand injury doesn’t force him out of the lineup today.

Elite Plays:

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.280 — OBP: 0.401

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.245 — OBP: 0.333

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.223 — OBP: 0.396

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 4:08 PM EST

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed.

Chicago White Sox					Detroit
			John Danks					Kyle Ryan
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-162)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.7	0.312	0.116	SP vs. Left	0.31	0.841	0.363	0.136
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.847	0.368	0.163	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.704	0.312	0.094
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed.

John Danks

Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 26)

John Danks is always a pitcher we can look to pick on for DFS purposes. He is always known to give up big run totals on a regular basis and is allowing a 1.57 HR/9 on the year. With the tough matchup against the righty-heavy Tigers, Danks is an easy avoid and a good place to start when attacking your offensive selections this afternoon. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,100 FD, $5,000 DK

Kyle Ryan

Chicago White Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.251 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 21)

Kyle Ryan is not a fantasy option even against the White Sox who have the lowest wOBA against left-handed pitchers in the league (.251). Ryan is not going to pitch deep into the game regardless if he is pitching well and his strikeout rate of 11.1% is extremely low and brings down his upside tremendously. Avoid him today. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $4,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Editor’s Note: This game has been postponed.

Chicago White Sox

Even though the White Sox have been terrible against lefties (.251 wOBA), they are in a solid spot this afternoon as underdogs playing in the highest total game of the whole day. The power righties are clearly in play and Jose Abreu is one of my favorite plays at first when factoring in price.

Elite Plays:

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.328

Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.327

Secondary Plays:

Alexei Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.041 — OBP: 0.315

Detroit

The Tigers are my favorite stack of the day against Danks who has been lit up a number of times this year and is allowing a wOBA of .398 to right-handed bats this year. Fire up as many Tigers as you would like as they are pretty large favorites in a game with a total of 9.5.

Elite Plays:

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.468

Victor Martinez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.487 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.514

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.294

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.283 — ISO: 0.113 — OBP: 0.323

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.185 — OBP: 0.254

NY Yankees at Houston – 4:10 PM EST

NY Yankees					Houston
			Masahiro Tanaka					Brett Oberholtzer
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-120)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.24	0.658	0.289	0.247	SP vs. Left	0.292	0.741	0.326	0.17
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.655	0.288	0.275	SP vs. Right	0.281	0.742	0.326	0.149
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 25.9% (Rank: 30)

Tanaka had his first real rough start of the season as he allowed three home runs and seven earned runs against the Tigers. He will look to bounce back and is in a decent spot to do it against the Astros who strikeout at a 25.9% clip against righties for the highest in the league. While we were all looking for Tanaka to pitch into the 100s in his last start, his performance did not allow it. I think he has a very solid start this afternoon and is a decent tournament option if you want to stray away from the Kershaw pack. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9,300 FD, $10,600 DK

Brett Oberholtzer

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 6)

Oberholtzer has been serviceable for the Astros so far since returning from the DL in May. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his six starts and has kept the ball in the ballpark with only one home run against. Oberholtzer is an underdog today as he has to face a solid Yankees offense and is an easy avoid this afternoon. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5,600 FD, $6,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

This Yankees squad packs some punch and is in a good spot against Oberholtzer who is allowing a .300+ wOBA from both sides of the plate. Brett Gardner is absolutely on fire lately and facing a lefty will open up a spot for Chris Young to hopefully bat high up in the order.

Elite Plays:

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.320

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.246 — OBP: 0.427

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.219 — OBP: 0.402

Secondary Plays:

Chris Young
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.323 — OBP: 0.435

Houston

I think Tanaka pitches very well today and is able to rack up the strikeouts against this free-swinging Astros squad. That is not to say one of those swings doesn’t result in a home run, but I don’t foresee a lot of base runners anyway so it would be limited damage.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Preston Tucker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.314

Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.292— OBP: 0.298

LA Dodgers at Miami – 4:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					Miami
			Clayton Kershaw					Tom Koehler
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-214)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.202	0.535	0.239	0.328	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.698	0.311	0.193
SP vs. Right	0.2	0.558	0.249	0.321	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.702	0.312	0.178
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw

Miami Marlins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 15)

Although Kershaw has his highest ERA (3.33) since his rookie year, things appear to be fine. He has a superb 2.09 xFIP on the year and is only trailing Sale for the second highest K% at 32.8%. He has a tough matchup against the Marlins who are surprisingly ranked third in the league against lefties, but that rating takes a major hit with the news that Giancarlo Stanton has a broken bone in his hand. If Kershaw wasn’t the top option before this news, he is now the easy best pitcher on the slate and should be used in all formats. Rating = 9.5

Salaries: $12,000 FD, $12,300 DK

Tom Koehler

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 13)

Phelps is an easy avoid this afternoon as he takes on the Dodgers who have the highest wOBA against right-handed pitching (.343). Add that to his low strikeout rate (15.8%) and Kershaw on the bump against him, and you can keep looking for other options. Rating = 4

EDIT – Had Phelps here when I wrote this early this morning, but appears that Koehler is now the starter. This bumps down the Dodgers bats a bit, but now looking at the weather and a few postponements, they look like one of the better offenses to target in the afternoon slate.

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Like I said before, with the postponements, you are looking at one of the better offenses on the board this afternoon. Vegas expects them to safely win this game as they are inching towards -300 favorites with their ace on the mound. I expect them to score a few runs and the usual suspects are in play.

Elite Plays:

Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.313 — OBP: 0.394

Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.246 — OBP: 0.390

Yasiel Puig
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.174 — OBP: 0.365

Secondary Plays:

Yasmani Grandal
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.240 — OBP: 0.389

Miami

Avoid the Marlins bats today against Kershaw.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

None

Boston at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM EST

Boston					Tampa Bay
			Wade Miley					Matt Andriese
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (-111)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.249	0.686	0.307	0.184	SP vs. Left	0.333	0.93	0.399	0.105
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.76	0.334	0.199	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.612	0.261	0.182
Batter Splits			BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley

Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 19)

Miley has been an average starter so far this year. His ERA and xFIP are both around 4.50; he has a low strikeout rate (15.5%) and does not pitch deep into games consistently. Miley does have a decent matchup in pitcher-friendly Tropicana, however, the Rays have been better recently and are slight favorites against Miley and the Red Sox today. With so many other options, Miley is a tough sell on this slate. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $7,000 DK

Matt Andriese

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 16.3% (Rank: 2)

Andriese does not feature any sort of statistics that would make him a viable start today. He is not going to pitch deep into ballgames and has a strikeout rate of 14.4%. He is an easy avoid against the Red Sox offense today. *Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Andriese has really struggled this year at getting left-handed batters out. He has allowed a .399 wOBA against lefties which puts guys like David Ortiz (especially with his low price) and Brock Holt into elite status.

Elite Plays:

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.394

Brock Holt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.390

Secondary Plays:

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.388

Tampa Bay

The Tampa bats feature some cheap options this afternoon that are in a good spot against Miley who is allowing a wOBA of .341 against right-handed bats. Joey Butler has been playing well recently and is hitting in the top of the order and Evan Longoria is an elite play as well.

Elite Plays:

Joey Butler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.364

Evan Longoria
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.121 — OBP: 0.438

Secondary Plays:

Logan Forsythe
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.341

Steven Souza
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.400

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